Friday Free-for-fall!

Autumn is here! Can you smell it?

This being the end of the week, let’s do another Friday Free-for-all shall we?

This is our regularly programmed end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread for the weekend, we do this every week if you’re new here.

So let’s get to a few links to kick off the chat:

Mayor: foreign buyer tax too little, too late
Opinions? Share them with the city.
Canadians, Aussies and Kiwis in same trap
Bigger bubble than London
AirBn…waitwhataretherulesagain?
Housing Crisis? Blame Canadians.
Skook blogs again! Bowen and Coast stats
Millenials: No Retirement for you!
Correction to be painful.

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent bubble-filled weekend!

Just like London, Stockholm & New York

So are we ‘world class’ yet?

Despite not making it onto lists of the worlds most economically powerful cities, Vancouver is finally being compared to London, Stockholm & New York and we come out on top!

Swiss bank UBS has named Vancouver the city with the worlds riskiest housing bubble:

UBS said Vancouver prices were unaffected by the financial crisis in 2008 and continue to rise despite weakening commodity prices.

“Over the last two years, the housing market has gone into overdrive due to strong demand for local properties among foreign investors and a loose monetary policy,” the report said.

“Currently, house prices in Vancouver seem clearly out of step with economic fundamentals, and are in bubble risk territory.”

Hot on the heels of Vancouver are London and the Swedish capital, Stockholm. The report stated that, with the exception of Milan, low interest rates in the euro zone have pushed all the European cities reviewed into bubble territory.

Read the full article over at CNBC.

Cautiously optimistic

There seems to be a shift if then Vancouver real estate market lately and that has some people excited about a potential return to sanity, but we’ve  seen versions of this story before.  BearVancouverite shares some thoughts on why they remain ‘cautiously optimistic’ and a question about the future:

Some posters here are counting their chickens before they hatch. I’m with Ulsterman in being cautiously optimistic.

We all need some perspective here:

1) Total inventory is still below 10k. In previous years even 15k+ inventory saw a mostly sellers market.
2) The superb chart that Brian Ripley posted shows that the purple dots are leveling off, at an absorption level ABOVE 2015 and 2014 still. I hope this continues to drop.
3) News reports show that condos are still selling at a decent pace
4) Even a 50% drop in Summer 2016 listing prices only resets prices to maybe 2013 levels. Most houses I see listed in Killarney for instance are as of yesterday listing for $2.2-2.8M. Going down from there to $1.1-1.4M is still above what almost every bear here was willing to pay in 2010.

Here’s my question, and I honestly want to know because I’m trying to figure out at what point I should seriously consider buying. If there’s a 50% drop, and a Killarney 120 year old near teardown is selling for $1.2M, how many of the prominent bears here (including vangrl, yvr, Hamster, BPOM, LS in Arbutus, and UBC in crisis) would recommend a friend to buy at that point?

Btw as a counterpoint to my above caution, here’s my personal observations:

1) I’m seeing a lot of Killarney listings SFH come up now. Far more than I noticed throughout summer.
2) In general I’m seeing more 3BR+ listings per day than during summer, although there’s still very little coming up.
3) I’m seeing a lot of higher quality SFH being listed. Eg not just teardowns
4) Some of the listings I see have descriptions which include the realtor saying “lived in by long term owner” or “for sale by original owner” or “owner of 40 years” etc. So just observationally some of the inventory coming online is from locals finally willing to sell.

Friday Free-for-all! September 23, 2016

It’s the end of another work week and that means it’s time for another Friday Free-for-all!

This is our regular end of the week news round up and open topic discussion thread. Here are a few recent links to kick off the chat:

Mother of all stock market corrections
Alternative lending on the rise
OECD slashes Canadian outlook
Poloz signals delay in rate increase
Empty home tax
Variable rates will soar
Sold as percentage of inventory data
Canadians buying ‘too much car’

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news links, thoughts and anecdotes here and have an excellent weekend!

HALT Rally Recap

HALT_YVR wrote in with a recap of this weekends rally and a link to video of the first 4 speakers:

Hi all,

We just wanted to say thanks to everyone that managed to make it out to our rally this Saturday. Despite the lousy weather, we managed to get 200 people out to make noise about this housing crisis slowly grinding local Vancouverites into dust. We had some great speakers that ran the gamut from average citizens to lawyers, economists, and activists. For those that didn’t get a chance to make it out, here’s a video of the first 4 of our 6 speakers. It’s long at 45 min but well worth the listen: https://youtu.be/h6wRS-fMHi4

We’ll keep you posted on future events that are just now in the planning stages. Expect another event to draw attention to our housing crisis and pressure government in the next two months.

In the meantime like our FB Page to keep up with all the latest updates: https://www.facebook.com/HALTVancouver/

Thanks again for your support,
The HALT Team