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If you’re laying out the better part of a Million bucks for something, I would recommend that you find that time to do such. And that is where we depart company.

I have numbers,
I have stats,
I have analysis,
I’m not buying.

Furthermore:
but I would remind everyone that real-estate is an emotional market. Facts and figures say one thing, but it all comes down to opinions and emotion anyways.

And that’s where we have the source of air that inflated this bubble. How do you think the “RE Never Goes Down” crowd will react to being bombarded by stories out of the US about it’s RE.

It’s just started…pull up a chair:

G&M: http://tinyurl.com/npehk

Or even:
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/

Watch the articles, read the stories.

btw: I only just noticed you said this in your first post:
There are so many factors that go into a market that it is overly simplistic to say that the future will look something like the past.

Are you joking? You can’t just wave away history. You do however have to explain why it is different now.

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You can’t live in a tech-stock so there’s nothing to keep them from dropping to zero. Someone always needs a house to live in.

Oh and d_oush everything you just said is the same rehashing of the top housing myths that we see time and time again.

If you are so correct, then explain to me why Hong Kong and Tokyo have crashed so hard and sayed down for years. They have a higher density of people, which I presume most live somewhere, and they have mountains, oceans and all that great stuff we have here. Japan even hosted the Olympics. Hasn’t helped them, though.

And hate to burst your bubble, but Vancouver isn’t in the world-class, yet. Maybe some day, but it isn’t even in the same class as Toronot, let alone Montreal, NYC, London, Paris, or Geneva. I’ve lived in, or around all these cities, and I can tell you that Vancouver has a long way to go.

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Have you ever seen a franklin mint collectable plate commercial? Do you remember what they say at the end of those?

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I’m not trying to be insulting, but that statement basically shows me that we’re talking two different languages.

I like Vancouver, and yes, it’s growing. However, housing prices are so far out of wack with respect to incomes and potential rental incomes that it’s not funny.

furthermore, net immigration to BC has been at historic lows during this housing boom and that Landcor study shows it’s BC’er selling to BC’ers in the vast majority of cases. Overseas purchasers represent at most 4% of sales (could be less…check out that link)

However, whether or not Vancouver is in the same class as NYC or Paris is an opinion based debate. How’s about this, answer these questions:

1)Name one other city where the olympics caused a sustained RE price change?

2)How high do you expect prices to go? Especially given that we have near NYC prices with roughly 1/3 the square foot rental returns (not to mention the difference in salary between the two locations)

3)Given that Landcor report are you still holding to “Demand from foreign investors” as a driver of prices here?

4)Do you think Vancouver is immune to what’s currently happening to US RE?

I would like the responses to not have just opinions. Give me data or links (or at least verifiable points: i.e. lumber was 320/board foot last year, is 285/board foot right now).

I am probably the only guy you’ll find on any of these blogs that if you put forward a good argument, I’ll change my opinion. The prices don’t add up right now and are different form any other time in history: What is your justifaction that it’ll stay that way?

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What is that supposed to mean? Do you think that Vancouver is not a growing city? We aren’t as big as NY or Paris yet, but we aren’t a small city like Kelowna. Canada only has a few locations with nice climates all year round and vancouver happens to be the big city smack dab in the middle of the nicest part of canada.

the way prices have gone up recently proves that this city is in demand.

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D_Oush, I wish you the best.

Cheers,

WH

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I think you’re making mountains out of ski-hills.

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You: Prices here are not really that high

Me: Compared to where by what measure? (and please….Vancouver’s not: London, Paris, NYC)

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Name one other city this caused a sustained RE price change? Also: Why aren’t we all living in Torino?

2-Demand from foreign investors

Not according to the recent Landcor study…it found that 94%+ of sales are to BC residents.

see: http://tinyurl.com/s239p

3-Strong economy

Lumber is headed into the toilet. Mining may not be that far off if the RE crash continues in the US.

4-Many local ski-hills

Well dam…you got me there. That justifies the Median house being over 10 times median household income. What was I thinking.

How big is that Condo your selling?

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You can’t live in a tech-stock so there’s nothing to keep them from dropping to zero. Someone always needs a house to live in.

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1-The olympics are coming
2-Demand from foreign investors
3-Strong economy
4-Many local ski-hills

there are more signs, these are just off the top of my head.

thepope:

Yeah but that quote is from the CMHC – their purpose is to provide ‘affordable’ homes, they don’t have an investors perspective.

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Did you read the Cameron Muir quote? CMHC disagrees with you:

“The erosion of affordability is going to begin to impact the market next year. High home prices and increasing interest rates will make housing less affordable and squeeze out buyers at the margins.”

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What are these signs?

Prices here are not really that high,

Compared to where by what measure? (and please….Vancouver’s not: London, Paris, NYC)

condo’s are still affordable so why not buy now while you can?

Why? You need to sell one?

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The Olympics have done nothing for RE in other cities, it is hype.

“Priced out forever” and “things are different” are the bromides of the “soon to be burned”.

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So how are your tech stock doing?

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Yeah, but look at the way prices have gone up over the last couple of years. Everything indicates that they will keep going up. Prices here are not really that high, condo’s are still affordable so why not buy now while you can?

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“Now” is but a fleeting instant, and it is gone…

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The fact is Vancouver is a growing city. We’re hosting the olympics in 2010, we have a beautiful location, a strong economy and demand from all over the world.

If you don’t buy now you are very likely in danger of being priced out forever. This is not meant to be insulting, it’s just the way things are now.

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