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Home sales and prices still dropping across the US

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This article on MSNBC looks at the stats for home sales across the USA, with the subtitle “year-over-year median sales price drops by the largest amount on record.”

“Housing, which had set sales records for both new and existing homes for five consecutive years, has been rapidly loosing altitude this year, as consumers were battered by rising mortgage rates, soaring energy prices and a slowing economy.

However, economists with the Realtors said they believed the housing decline could be hitting bottom.

“The worst is behind us as far as a market correction — this is likely the trough for sales,” said David Lereah, the Realtors’ chief economist. “When consumers recognize that home sales are stabilizing, we’ll see the buyers who’ve been on the sidelines get back into the market.”

However, analysts said that the weakness in housing could last for several more months with a real upturn in sales not occurring until next spring.”

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bc_cele

Anonymous said… Oh my god you guys looks highly educated but no one is coming with any kind of calculation or detail its only me trying to put some calculations and getting lots of lough because I am poor writer but awesome detail okey lets get to work.Things and their jobs CARS Bmw,Honda,Toyota,Hyundi,Ford etc……..Stop, I'm busting a gut already. You are obviously writing like an idiot, and presenting such a poor argument just to make us laugh, right?

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Anonymous

Oh my god you guys looks highly educated but no one is coming with any kind of calculation or detail its only me trying to put some calculations and getting lots of lough because I am poor writer but awesome detail okey lets get to work.Things and their jobs CARS Bmw,Honda,Toyota,Hyundi,Ford etc.New vehicles/old vehcles their jobs are same but cost is diffrent old cars you can get for $300 and brand new for $100000.AIRLINES Air canada,British airways,Lufthansa,China airline their jobs are same but cost us diffrent COLD DRINKS Coca cola.Pepsi,PC cola, their jobs are same they cost us diffrent.REAL ESTATE counts beauty, peaceful, environment, convenient, quiteness .COST apply through Material,Concrete,Drywall,Mirror,Doors,Patios,Balconies,Views,Locations,Bus stop,Work place etc.I mean to say prices are not gonna go down its people who will find there option Starting Downtown,Westvan,eastvan,collingwood,burnaby,surrey,calgary,edmonton.When there was no lift up in vancouver downton been… Read more »

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Anonymous

anonymous8:15 – Wow! You have quite an interesting writing style. I think you should pick a name to post under – its interesting to see the other side of the debate, as manic and rambling as it may be.I'm curious though, where will this future demand come from at constantly higher and higher prices? If demand is stagnant now what happens if things really start going downhill here?

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dingus

"any body want to buy do not wait later than december" … …er… how 'bout… any investor hoping to sell at a profit better list before december.

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wannaget2calgary

"any body want to buy do not wait later than december" … This is too funny for me, I can't stop laughing. Please, no more, please.

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Anonymous

USA is dealing with TERRORISM/Vancouver is dealing with OLYMPICS….Vancouver is no.1 beautiful city of the world.USA is scary street in fear thats what makes diffrent.Now lets talk about Listing:All new developments projects provide 10 year warranty high rise concrete building,Matterial cost and amenities makes them expensive.Now look at other part of vancouver almost leaky and more than 25 year olds people switch arounds.Than comes project maturity and Investor always try to make money before any building come to completion that part of construction increase LISTINGS and decrease price from INVESTOR scare to face completion.How long that will last most of project are finished and left over will be finishing before 2009.Now new concrete with waranty raise question of affordability,Once highrise suite purchased increased prices getting copy and paste on old or leaky,lets talk about sqr feets Downtown 715 west side… Read more »

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licketyclit

Interesting new stats from the Globe and Mail:-US new home prices fall 9.7% in September-Sharpest YOY drop since 1970-the fall of the price of existing homes is the sharpest on record

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Anonymous

This story isn't even about future price drops in vancouver, its about price drops that are happening right now all across the US, which just happens to be our largest trading partner.Anybody that thinks vancouver has some sort of magic isolation from whats happening in the US is just fooling themselves.If you don't think that prices will drop here take a look at the rate that listings have been growing for the last four months, go visit an openhouse and see if people are bidding on these 'great deals' that will only increase in value.It ain't happening. Open houses are empty ghost towns, stuff just isn't selling like it was a year ago, and this is with a healthy bc economy! What happens to housing prices if our economy takes a hit?

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walls

anon- the problem is not that prices go up and down, its buying at the peak. Say you put 50k down on that 400k place and then you have to sell it for whatever reason – you look at the market and its worth 325k. What happened to your savings?What if you wait for the market to say its worth 325k? Then its costs you less or you can afford more. Problem right now is no-one can afford any decent liveable place here, thats why the market is stagnant and in danger of dropping.

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Anonymous

I want a place to live.What ever price i beat at time of purchase will satisfy me.So if price goes down should i go homeless"Home is to live not to sell.Now Real estate and our banker they always gives hope to buyer when there is no buyer they scare the market to keep their bussiness runinig.Prices goes down look prices..1995-100k—96–125k 97–150k–98–175–Jan 2006–400k ending 2006–375000 hahaha even 2007 if thats goes down to 350000 now look back to 1995–350000-100000=250000 do you think that will ever come down to 100000 do you think if basic rate of pay is $8.00 that will goes down to $4.00 Hydro $100 2007 $50.00 Telephone $50 2007 $25.00 Grocery 500.00 in 2007 250.00 beleive that answer is NO

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Anonymous

i've to add that my comment's for DLiar and allGospun. i respect all who posted here even if i don't agree w/them ;)my username doesnt always work when chaninging from beta to GoogleA.

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dingus

d_oush makes some good points. This Lereah guy must know what he's talking about. He's an economist after all, and he works for the realtors so has the inside scoop and expertise on the real estate industry! And Greenspan is the money guru, he would know. He knows more about financial stuff than all of us, so how could he be wrong? Experts. They are. And we're not. All the so called experts saying the opposite couldn't possibly know as much as industry insiders and the guy who started this glorious credit revolution, now, could they? And a drop in sales will mean more inventory, which means more opportunities for buyers at lower prices, and that means that demand will increase and so will prices. Plus all those buyers who overstretched may end up downsizing, so there's even more demand… Read more »

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licketyclit

Yabut, David Lreah is fullashit and Greenspan, who created the mess was on paid junket to Calgary to tell folks what they wanted to hear.

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Anonymous

"Didn't you read the article? David Lereah believes that the worst is over, and heres another article that a lot of experts including alan greenspan have come to the same conclusion"wow this is an anonymous boarddo notinsult others intelligence pls 😀

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d_oush

Did anyone even hint that this could be the bottom?Yes. Didn't you read the article? David Lereah believes that the worst is over, and heres another article that a lot of experts including alan greenspan have come to the same conclusion:http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15416909/from/RS.1/manafromheaven:It sounds like you're looking for the perfect aligning of the planets. Doesnt "when the downturn is no longer obvious to anyone with a lick of common sense" just mean that prices are going up again? Once thats in the news isn't it likely that its been happening for a while?

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manafromheaven

d-oush,To answer your last question from yesterday:Nobody can call the exact bottom accurately, but these are some of the indicators I would look for:-when it looks like interest rates are close to a cycle bottom (the average peak to trough time for the fed fund rate is 1.5 to 2 years)-when the 100 day long bond moving average breaks down-when the spread of the flat yield curve increases-when the average 14 day sales/listings ratio increases for a minimum of one fiscal quater-when there's blood in the streets, and definately when the downturn is no longer obvious to anyone with a lick of common sense.

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Anonymous

Did anyone even hint that this could be the bottom?I'ts only the beginning of the downturn.Unbelievable d-oush talk!

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Anonymous

Oh brother!

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digi

If this is the bottom of the marketYeah, IF. Thats a pretty big IF though, interest rates aren't dropping, and prices in a lot of areas have rocketed up a lot farther than they've dropped in the last couple of years. It remains to be seen how far they have to drop before they see any positive movement again.Hopefully the US economy stays strong enough to prevent a dismal sag like they saw in Tokyo – 15 years of steadily dropping RE prices.

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d_oush

If this is the bottom of the market then its really not so bad – six months of prices dropping isn't going to seriously hurt anyone in the long term.Not only that, but it give more people a chance to buy property in the US at a lower price before it starts going back up again, and it always goes back up again.

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wannaget2calgary

From the MSNBC article cited: "Wherever the party was the loudest, that's where the hangover is going to be the greatest."

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digi

I'm going to go ask a car dealer if its a good time to 'invest' in a car, or maybe I'll go ask the sales guy at the brick if its a good time to 'invest' in a sofa.How many times do you think we'll get a quote along the lines of "I think prices have pretty much hit bottom" from people like learah before they actualy do? In what other business could you make such shoddy, inaccuarate self-serving forecasts and not be held accountable?

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Dignan

The Bulls are very quick to call the dowturn over. Keep in mind though, 2007 and 2008 will see the majority of ARM's adjusting in some of the most heavilly bubbled states.

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johnnycrasher

i see prices dropped in chilliwack by about $20000

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bc_cele

There was an article about this on Bloomberg's website this morning and I really have no clue how these guys come up with their reasoning. The claim that has me scratching my head was that sellers are starting to drop their prices while buyers are still holding out for lower prices, so this indicates that the market has bottomed out. WTF? Deflation is usually pretty self-sustainning. Why buy now if you anticipate the price to go down next month, or even next year.I'm not a bear, but a realist and someone has got to tell these permabulls to pull their heads out of their annal recesses.

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