Home sales and prices still dropping across the US
This article on MSNBC looks at the stats for home sales across the USA, with the subtitle “year-over-year median sales price drops by the largest amount on record.”
“Housing, which had set sales records for both new and existing homes for five consecutive years, has been rapidly loosing altitude this year, as consumers were battered by rising mortgage rates, soaring energy prices and a slowing economy.
However, economists with the Realtors said they believed the housing decline could be hitting bottom.
“The worst is behind us as far as a market correction — this is likely the trough for sales,†said David Lereah, the Realtors’ chief economist. “When consumers recognize that home sales are stabilizing, we’ll see the buyers who’ve been on the sidelines get back into the market.â€
However, analysts said that the weakness in housing could last for several more months with a real upturn in sales not occurring until next spring.”
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October 25th, 2006 at 7:56 am
I’m not a bear, but a realist and someone has got to tell these permabulls to pull their heads out of their annal recesses.
October 25th, 2006 at 8:34 am
October 25th, 2006 at 8:41 am
October 25th, 2006 at 8:48 am
How many times do you think we’ll get a quote along the lines of “I think prices have pretty much hit bottom” from people like learah before they actualy do? In what other business could you make such shoddy, inaccuarate self-serving forecasts and not be held accountable?
October 25th, 2006 at 8:49 am
October 25th, 2006 at 10:39 am
Not only that, but it give more people a chance to buy property in the US at a lower price before it starts going back up again, and it always goes back up again.
October 25th, 2006 at 11:43 am
Yeah, IF. Thats a pretty big IF though, interest rates aren’t dropping, and prices in a lot of areas have rocketed up a lot farther than they’ve dropped in the last couple of years. It remains to be seen how far they have to drop before they see any positive movement again.
Hopefully the US economy stays strong enough to prevent a dismal sag like they saw in Tokyo - 15 years of steadily dropping RE prices.
October 25th, 2006 at 11:44 am
October 25th, 2006 at 11:52 am
I’ts only the beginning of the downturn.
Unbelievable d-oush talk!
October 25th, 2006 at 12:40 pm
To answer your last question from yesterday:
Nobody can call the exact bottom accurately, but these are some of the indicators I would look for:
-when it looks like interest rates are close to a cycle bottom (the average peak to trough time for the fed fund rate is 1.5 to 2 years)
-when the 100 day long bond moving average breaks down
-when the spread of the flat yield curve increases
-when the average 14 day sales/listings ratio increases for a minimum of one fiscal quater
-when there’s blood in the streets, and definately when the downturn is no longer obvious to anyone with a lick of common sense.
October 25th, 2006 at 2:18 pm
Yes. Didn’t you read the article? David Lereah believes that the worst is over, and heres another article that a lot of experts including alan greenspan have come to the same conclusion:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15416909/from/RS.1/
manafromheaven:
It sounds like you’re looking for the perfect aligning of the planets. Doesnt “when the downturn is no longer obvious to anyone with a lick of common sense” just mean that prices are going up again? Once thats in the news isn’t it likely that its been happening for a while?
October 25th, 2006 at 2:30 pm
wow this is an anonymous board
do notinsult others intelligence pls
October 25th, 2006 at 2:47 pm
October 25th, 2006 at 3:24 pm
And a drop in sales will mean more inventory, which means more opportunities for buyers at lower prices, and that means that demand will increase and so will prices. Plus all those buyers who overstretched may end up downsizing, so there’s even more demand for you. And that frees up their orignal house, giving an opportunity to a buyer to buy, so there’s even more opportunity! So lower sales will mean more sales! And lower prices will mean higher prices! It’s all good! The cycle of life continues unabated!
(Hey, d_oush, this is easier than I thought!)
October 25th, 2006 at 3:25 pm
i respect all who posted here even if i don’t agree w/them
my username doesnt always work when chaninging from beta to GoogleA.
October 25th, 2006 at 9:01 pm
Now Real estate and our banker they always gives hope to buyer when there is no buyer they scare the market to keep their bussiness runinig.Prices goes down look prices..1995-100k—96–125k 97–150k–98–175–Jan 2006–400k ending 2006–375000 hahaha even 2007 if thats goes down to 350000 now look back to 1995–350000-100000=250000 do you think that will ever come down to 100000 do you think if basic rate of pay is $8.00 that will goes down to $4.00 Hydro $100 2007 $50.00 Telephone $50 2007 $25.00 Grocery 500.00 in 2007 250.00 beleive that answer is NO
October 26th, 2006 at 7:40 am
What if you wait for the market to say its worth 325k? Then its costs you less or you can afford more. Problem right now is no-one can afford any decent liveable place here, thats why the market is stagnant and in danger of dropping.
October 26th, 2006 at 11:01 am
Anybody that thinks vancouver has some sort of magic isolation from whats happening in the US is just fooling themselves.
If you don’t think that prices will drop here take a look at the rate that listings have been growing for the last four months, go visit an openhouse and see if people are bidding on these ‘great deals’ that will only increase in value.
It ain’t happening. Open houses are empty ghost towns, stuff just isn’t selling like it was a year ago, and this is with a healthy bc economy! What happens to housing prices if our economy takes a hit?
October 26th, 2006 at 12:09 pm
-US new home prices fall 9.7% in September
-Sharpest YOY drop since 1970
-the fall of the price of existing homes is the sharpest on record
October 26th, 2006 at 7:15 pm
October 26th, 2006 at 8:17 pm
This is too funny for me, I can’t stop laughing. Please, no more, please.
October 27th, 2006 at 8:19 am
…er… how ’bout… any investor hoping to sell at a profit better list before december.
October 27th, 2006 at 10:27 am
Wow! You have quite an interesting writing style. I think you should pick a name to post under - its interesting to see the other side of the debate, as manic and rambling as it may be.
I’m curious though, where will this future demand come from at constantly higher and higher prices? If demand is stagnant now what happens if things really start going downhill here?
October 27th, 2006 at 10:10 pm
New vehicles/old vehcles their jobs are same but cost is diffrent old cars you can get for $300 and brand new for $100000.AIRLINES Air canada,British airways,Lufthansa,China airline their jobs are same but cost us diffrent COLD DRINKS Coca cola.Pepsi,PC cola, their jobs are same they cost us diffrent.REAL ESTATE counts beauty, peaceful, environment, convenient, quiteness .COST apply through Material,Concrete,Drywall,Mirror,Doors,Patios,Balconies,Views,Locations,Bus stop,Work place etc.
I mean to say prices are not gonna go down its people who will find there option Starting Downtown,Westvan,eastvan,collingwood,burnaby,surrey,calgary,edmonton.When there was no lift up in vancouver downton been sold for $615sqft.now when city getting lift up every corner how can you bring that down. currently its being sold for $715 sqft.When we can drive $300 cars why people spend $100000 on new cars if you can sip pc cola for 35 cent why people buy coke for $1.00 because thats depend on our satisfaction so
CURRENT UPDATE PRICES ARE=CURRENT DEVELOPMENT COST.
October 28th, 2006 at 12:58 am
Oh my god you guys looks highly educated but no one is coming with any kind of calculation or detail its only me trying to put some calculations and getting lots of lough because I am poor writer but awesome detail okey lets get to work.Things and their jobs CARS Bmw,Honda,Toyota,Hyundi,Ford etc……..
Stop, I’m busting a gut already. You are obviously writing like an idiot, and presenting such a poor argument just to make us laugh, right?