Well its the slow time of year and a bit of a wierd month as well with muddy water and snowstorms, but the Real Estate Board of Vancouver has release stats for November and we’re seeing prices coming down in a lot of sectors. A few of the biggest price drops were:
Single Family Homes: Vancouver West (-4.1%) and West Van (-7.7%)
Apartments: Maple Ridge (-9.3%), Vancouver West (-7.5%)
So maybe now is the right time to buy that House in West Van or Apartment in Maple Ridge.
VHB created the handy Price RE/set graphic* shown above to visually track where we are historically on the price rollercoaster. Looks like November saw prices drop back a few months to about what they where in July 2006.
Some people think that this is the start of a softening market with prices dropping steadily for a while like they are in many places in the US. If this happens to be true, and it follows past trends for Vancouver House Prices it could be a while before it turns around. Previous drops from peak to trough have lasted anywhere from a short term of 1 year to several years of steadily dropping prices.
Personally I don’t believe that would be reasonable. I have been told that this time it is different, and assured that there will be a steady supply of people with ever increasing buying power to keep making our prices rise higher and higher until they reach my prior prediction of $3,000,000 for a 600 square foot condo in 2010.
UPDATE: There’s an article in todays Sun that take a suprisingly negative look at our market. under the headline Could big price drops be approaching? they look at the history of Vancouvers ups and downs and include some very negative possibilities:
By Gartman’s estimate, in the current cycle a Vancouver detached house rose from $340,000 at the last trough in the winter of 1998-99, reaching nearly $800,000 this year.
“If the peak was made earlier this year, and if history is any guide to us,” and Vancouver prices decline by the average of the last three cycles, Gartman said it could take 25 to 30 months to go down the trough, and 65 to 70 months to see a new peak.
Based on past experience, Gartman added that the drop could be in the order of 28 per cent, taking that $800,000 house down to $575,000.
*Graphic stolen and re-used without permission. I have assembled a crack team of legal ninjas to defend against any legal action VHB attempts to pursue.
