Condo prices set to continue rising.
According to a report issued today by Genworth Financial strong demand will drive steady price increases in the Vancouver condo market until 2010.
“In 2006, Vancouver’s condo market remained as strong as ever and the good news is that growth is forecast to continue without a price correction, so it is still a smart time for buyers to realize the dream of homeownership,” said Peter Vukanovich, president Genworth Financial Canada. The Metropolitan Condominium Outlook reviewed resale condo markets in Montreal, Ottawa, Toronto, Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver based on data from the Conference Board of Canada. New condo prices were not included.
According to the news release “Genworth Financial Canada, The Homeownership Company, works with lenders, mortgage brokers, real estate agents and builders to make homeownership more affordable and accessible throughout Canada.”
So they’re an impartial source for sure.
But heres a question I have: If the market will continue to rise gently until 2010 getting further and further away from rent values, what happens after 2010 and when is the best time to sell to realize gains on a Vancouver property?
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January 31st, 2007 at 3:20 pm
I’m fed up with real estate clerks force-feeding the uninformed with their catchy slogans, so I’ve decided it’s time to make up some of our own. Here’s my first attempt:
If you don’t buy a condo, you can’t lose!
January 31st, 2007 at 2:02 pm
Here’s a signature I found on a US housing bubble blog:
“Sell now, or be priced in forever!”
January 31st, 2007 at 8:53 am
I enjoy the tone of the press release, sounds fairy bullish. I plan to buy some potatoes, eggs, and might as well a few condos before price is out of reach!
January 30th, 2007 at 11:44 pm
The market will have crashed well before 2010 and should be a couple of years into slow recovery by then.
Agree that will have crashed well before 2010, not sure about slow recovery by then…could bump along the bottom for a while longer.
January 30th, 2007 at 8:36 pm
wg2c –
Thanks wanna. Are you my friend?
January 30th, 2007 at 6:23 pm
Is that the right answer? Do I win? Do I win? What did I win?
Yes, you won! You won! You won whatever is in your fondest dreams!! Just imagine it.
January 30th, 2007 at 6:09 pm
“I disagree – sometimes it’s a good time to buy, sometimes its not.”
digi: I agree with you. My point is mortgage lenders and Realtors have an interest in keeping turnover high, hence the constant media barrage declaring “we’re all winners” no matter what we do as long as your $ is on the table.
In 03-05 the message was “Hot market! Jump in before it’s too late!” In 06 the message was “Balance! Great time to buy or sell!” 07 appears to be reverting to the 03-05 spin though a bit more muted. The underlying message, regardless of the words, is that nobody will lose capital from now on.
What else are they going to say? “Markets will drop 5% this year! But buy anyways!”
January 30th, 2007 at 5:39 pm
Isn’t Genworthless a sub-prime lender, that “helps” self-employed types and immigrants buy their first homes. Weren’t they the ones who first came out with the beautiful 40 year mortgage?
Nope, no conflict of interest or bubble here folks, move along.
January 30th, 2007 at 5:28 pm
Barney: To Homer, the Wall Street genius!
[everyone claps as Homer bows]
[Homer lights a cigar with a $1, then puts out the flame and puts it back in his wallet]
Lenny: Hey, Homer! How come you’ve got money to burn? Or singe,anyway?
Carl: Yeah, Homer, what’s your secret investment?
Homer: Take a guess.
Barney: Uh, pumpkins?
Homer: [pause] Yeah, that’s right, Barney. This year, I invested in pumpkins. They’ve been going up the whole month of October and I got a feeling they’re going to peak right around January.
Then, bang! That’s when I’ll cash in….
Everyone toasts Homer as the camera pans to a jack-o’-lantern. Not long after, the pumpkin is a rotted pile.
Broker: Homer, you knuckle-beak, I told you a hundred times: you’ve got to sell your pumpkin futures before Hallowe’en! Before!
Homer: All right, let’s not panic: I’ll make the money back by selling one of my livers. I can get by with one.
January 30th, 2007 at 5:28 pm
The market will have crashed well before 2010 and should be a couple of years into slow recovery by then.
January 30th, 2007 at 5:07 pm
Seems to me like Genworth needs some business.
If anything this little report makes me MORE convinced that a crash is coming.
January 30th, 2007 at 4:45 pm
After reading that article.
I’m going to buy 5 condos this weekend, with 0 down interest only and flip them next week for a nice profit.
P.S. – Looks like they did an article like this for every major center in Canada. Calgary, Edmonton, and Montreal showed up in the news releases.
January 30th, 2007 at 4:42 pm
It is/isn’t always/never a good/bad time to buy/sell……. Not.
January 30th, 2007 at 3:52 pm
It’s pretty hard to dispute the forecast. The supporting data is simply immutable, objective, and obviously originates from a source with no commercial interest in creating hype.
I hope all the people on the sidelines had a chance to read the report and will act on the suggestion of buying before prices move higher.
PS.
Prices will probably skyrocket at a faster rate after 2010, (the whole world will know where we are)
January 30th, 2007 at 3:41 pm
when is the best time to sell to realize gains on a Vancouver property?
Last summer?
Is that the right answer? Do I win? Do I win? What did I win?
January 30th, 2007 at 3:04 pm
It is always/never a good time to buy/sell.
I disagree – sometimes it’s a good time to buy, sometimes its not. You certainly can’t see when its the BEST time (trough) or WORST time (peak) to buy except in retrospect, but you can certainly see signs that indicated how much potential upside or downside you’re looking at.
January 30th, 2007 at 2:58 pm
I’m still not sure who’s supposed to be buying the newly built condos. All the new construction workers coming into the city to build them?
January 30th, 2007 at 2:58 pm
VanPhoenix: I’ve noticed some anectdotal lower prices with the increased inventory lately as well – The benchmark statistics from the REBGV do show the benchmark ticking up in December by about $500 after dropping about $5,000 over the previous two months.
January 30th, 2007 at 2:43 pm
It is always/never a good time to buy/sell.
I expect Genworth has an internal target similar to “capture 10% of the Canadian mortgage market by 2010.” They do that by increasing house sales and refis.
January 30th, 2007 at 2:42 pm
The report says prices are climbing. My observations show prices decreasing in my area and many going for less than asking. Who’s right on this one?
January 30th, 2007 at 1:09 pm
The best time to sell will be 2190. By then global warming will have made condos on Broadway into waterfront property.
Put another way market timing works just as poorly wether your predicting a peak or a trough.
January 30th, 2007 at 12:33 pm
when is a good time to sell ???
My brother says he will sell his house in Surrey a few minutes before the rush for the exits in 2009. He insists that everything he says is true and reliable, because that’s how it has always been, every time that there has been an Olympics anywhere.