Extrapolations.

Property assessments are out now and we’ve seen an astonishing 25% increase in prices from july to july. If we extrapolate those gains into the future we’ll see an average home price that is 8,000 times the average Vancouver income before too long!

On the other hand those assessments are six months old and if we were to extrapolate the price change month over month based on the last months price reductions we’d see the average house sell for twelve dollars in just a few years.

Extrapolating is tricky business!

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ahkenaten
ahkenaten
13 years ago

Household debt and extrapolation into the future…it’s funny as history certainly does repeat itself. I heard on CKNW an interview with a Vancity economist about the 25% jump in property assessment values and they are expecting a spike in home equity loans.Sheeees, borrowing against the home or any other form for discretionary spending is just sheer idiocy. But, it’s nothing new. People will always be people…Then I hear another interview with a bankruptcy trustee on CKNW as well talking about setting a budget for next year’s Christmas spending based on this and previous year’s spending. Most people are still figuring out how to get out of getting back to work this week let alone trying come up with a budget. This is exactly the reason that household debt will continue to rise faster than income. People think they are richer… Read more »

patriotz
patriotz
13 years ago

as I understand it, the more something has happened in the past, the more likely it is to happen in the near future.Is that about right?Yes and no. Check out a chart of Nortel. And then, the REBGV price graph. Get the picture?

ktiyy korner
ktiyy korner
13 years ago

Check this out looks like there's competition on west coast lifestyle in north korea….come to my village and see the pretty girls.http://youtube.com/watch?v=GJzfVomrpLk

mk-kids
mk-kids
13 years ago

ot- thanks for the link & formula for posting them… would it be possible/ worthwhile to post the formula on your main page somewhere pope for dummies like me to easily access? just a thought…

Anonymous
Anonymous
13 years ago

so here is my question. i accessed my assessment for the condo I sold in Mt. Pleasant in September. Do you think my sale price should have been higher, lower or about the amount of the assessment.Just trying to figure how to compare the amounts. thansk

the pope
the pope
13 years ago

“Therefore, the household sector should not pose a major threat to the stability of the Canadian financial system, at least in the short term.”Yikes! What exactly is the 'short term'? I think when you are shopping for a house 2 years would be 'long term', but when you've just bought a house 2 years would be 'short term', so I guess its depends on who you ask.Not to mention they're talking about the stability of the Canadian Financial system, what about individual families and their financial stability at the 1.25 debt level? I would suspect a Financial system is much more able to absorb loss than an individual family.

the pope
the pope
13 years ago

Thanks for the link mk-kids, and the clickification solipsist.for future reference to link you need to use a little bit of html:[a href="http://link"]text[/a%5DYou can copy that, replace the [ and ] with < and > and then put your link in place of "http://link&quot; and replace the word text with whatever you want the link to say. Just make sure you have the quotes around your "http://link&quot;.

solipsist
solipsist
13 years ago

mk-kids' link

mk-kids
mk-kids
13 years ago

Here's an interesting little story about household debt in Canada… apparently Canadians owe $1.25 for every dollar of disposable income they have but the news isn't all bad, the article concludes "the household sector should not pose a major threat to the stability of the Canadian financial system, at least in the short term." Whew! dodged a bullet there, huh?http://www.canada.com/topics/news/national/story.html?id=bff9d844-64dd-4164-b83b-ec205168b057&k=5177sorry, i don't know how to do the link… pope please fix if you get a chance.

digi
digi
13 years ago

as I understand it, the more something has happened in the past, the more likely it is to happen in the near future.Is that about right?We just have to decide on how far we cast into the past for indicator into the future. A few months back indicates a bad future, and few years back indicates a good future, a few decades back indicates a bad future.

betamax
betamax
13 years ago

The front page headline of the Vancouver proclaims the 23% increase.Highlights:"B.C. seems to be the place people want to live." – oddly, that includes places like Prince George and Terrace. Vacation homes for visiting Koreans, perhaps? Helmut Pastrick earns his pay by offering insightful commentary on the assessment increases: "fairly consistent with what we've seen in price [increases]."That's why he gets paid the big bucks, folks.