Whither the bullish?

I’m worried. It seems like just last summer there was a positive vibe in the air, local dailies would run enthusiastic exciting headlines like ‘BUY THAT CONDO NOW’ and everywhere you looked you’d find press releases from realtor offices touting predictions of average house prices of ‘ONE MILLION DOLLARS’ in the next 3 years. All the local boards and blogs would have several posters explaining why ‘NOW IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY’.

These days? We get headlines like ‘SUPPLY OF CONDOS IS EXCEEDING DEMAND’ and the REBGV benchmark price for a single family home has actually dropped below what it was last July.

But the most depressing sign of all?

I can barely find a handful of postings on local blogs and boards that are bullish on Vancouver real estate these days. So what happened? How has the shine come off this particular rose? Do bulls hibernate? I’m just looking for some reassurance that buying in Vancouver is a good idea right now.

Anyone?

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rentah
rentah
13 years ago

pope:I'm referring to sentiment. You know that bull markets climb 'walls of worry'. When everybody is in (at a top) you characteristically see no negative sentiment being expressed in the MSM. The fact that there are bearish sentiments ALREADY being expressed in the MSM suggests to me that there may still be mainstream folks (not counting crazy bears like those of us frequenting your blog) on the RE sidelines, and that then suggests that the market may still have some demand and upside left. This is purely on contrarian sentiment principles, and is far from infallible.One can tie oneself in knots analysing sentiment and, for the record, I'm very bearish RE despite analysis above. I think other factors eclipse the anecdotal sentiment currently.—Thanks for the time and date addition.

the pope
the pope
13 years ago

Rentah: I've updated the comments to include date as well as time.Speaking of timing- I'm not sure I get your argument about bearish articles in the msm being a bullish sign. Without some major changes in the price/income ratio I'm not sure that anyone would see bearish articles as a bullish sign.I do agree that reason and common sense aside I wouldn't be terribly suprised to see a rally into the spring/summer. Certainly it will depend on where inventory and demand are then.

rentah
rentah
13 years ago

Nobody on this thread mentioned the fact that drops in bullish sentiment and increase in bearish articles in the MSM is actually BULLISH for RE. Thus, from the point of view of contrarian study of sentiment, the Bull may yet have legs.(Note this is neither what I think will happen, nor what I want to happen (as I'm waiting to buy a SFH) BUT it is what the anecdotal 'data' suggest.So perhaps we'll have some buyers in the Spring (or even a blow-off in the Summer?)—-By the way, I think VCI would benefit from there being a date (as well as time) attached to each post. It's hard to know how stale one's post may be without the date.Thanks for the blog!

** Ego **
** Ego **
13 years ago

patriotz: And speaking of Ireland, 1 of 7 houses in the country is vacant, the highest number since the famine. And this is at a time when Ireland is actually gaining population. Could you post a link please?

VanPhoenix
VanPhoenix
13 years ago

Jim, that is sheer brilliance. Condo reserve to drive up the prices. I can't tell if you're serious or not but I am assuming you don't want to see this market stay in the 'ridiculous' zone!FYI – does anyone have the list/sell numbers for other areas? I see the Vancouver numbers and I appreciate them but that area is the hottest market. Based on what I have observed, the other areas (Burnaby, New West, Surrey)do not seem to be doing as well as the Vancouver area. Prices are dropping and many properties are going for under asking.

Jim
Jim
13 years ago

Perhaps instead of wasting money on Stanley park trees or even the homeless, the government could buy up surplus condos to maintain the price. Much the same way as the US is increasing its strategic reserves of oil to prop up the price of oil. I suggest a strategic condo reserve.

patriotz
patriotz
13 years ago

I do agree with the slowdown in the Us market as a whole but some areas are still appreciating, small pockets of real estate.That's sort of like saying 1944 was bad year as a whole for the German Army but they were making progress in the Ardennes.

VanPhoenix
VanPhoenix
13 years ago

Tired08, sounds like you've had your ass handed to you on several occasions. That's too bad. I think you can be the nice guy, do ok financially and help others.I'm not rich, by any means, and only have a couple of properties so in these waters I am a small fish (I think). It allows me time for sports, family, volunteering and fund raising. To me, the most rewarding things have been bettering the lives of other people. Usually it doesn't take much but the thanks they give you is overwhelming. Something tells me people are happier when doing these things. If money/RE is your goal in life then good luck but don't discourage others because you got the shaft along the way.PS – you don't need to start a revolution to make a difference.

ReductiMat
ReductiMat
13 years ago

Tired08, I'm in the "Never say Never camp".I think things will continue on as long as the majority can afford and consume the third-world disposable crap Walmart serves.The rubber meets the road when Walmart becomes out of reach for a large contingent of people.

betamax
betamax
13 years ago

Vancouver real estate only goes up 'cause everyone wants to live there and last time I checked everyone didn't.Excellent point, which even some of us local bears overlook — the idea that everyone wants to live here is assumed to be axiomatic, but it is in fact a far from universal truth.I was talking to my wife about this; she's from mainland China and knows many Chinese from big cities there who view Vancouver as a quaint country backwater, nothing more. They do not see it as a world-class city by any means – despite the many published surveys to the contrary in the local propaganda press(i.e. the media). Many Chinese living here would prefer to be back in China, but they're staying here to get their citizenship papers in case the Chinese govt. decides to end its capitalist experiment,… Read more »

betamax
betamax
13 years ago

Nice guys do finish last most of the time.I thought so when I was a young man, less so now that I'm 45. I consistently see nice guys and gals getting promoted, getting ahead, getting paid big money — while a**holes get stuck in middle management at best, their career forever plateaued by their bad attitude.As for the rich getting richer…sure, but don't expect serf/nobleman dichotomies to reassert themselves any time soon. Industrial capitalist economies are predicated on an affluent middle class able to purchase surplus production, and that necessary condition won't change.

Tired08
Tired08
13 years ago

patriotz/ reductimat,nICE THOUGHTS. I do agree with the slowdown in the Us market as a whole but some areas are still appreciating, small pockets of real estate.The stock markets seems to bearing the slow down well and producing good #s. I made some respectful gains. therefore I think it is a soft landing. The soft landing will extend to all over the world. Admittedly, places like florida are suffering …excessive greed. globally it still softAs for income dispaarity. Revolutions are a thing of the past in North American society. we don't have a leader like Gandhi or Lincoln to intrinsically motivate others to see the greater good. I used to be a little altrustic aand try to behave in a more fair and equitable manner and see my own and other people fortunes/ opportunities lost…now I watch my own ass… Read more »

solipsist
solipsist
13 years ago

Yes pope – the poet is sorely missed. Who will blink first?

the pope
the pope
13 years ago

We kept looking further and further out, until we got to Houston, Texas.Texas actually looks good to me – I visited Dallas and Austin for the first time recently and was suprised how it didn't match up with my preconcieved notions. The metrics for owning there make a whole lot more sense than Vancouver and the weather is a lot better (to my personal taste anyways).

the pope
the pope
13 years ago

VHB: Look in the mirror? I assure you I personally have nothing to do with the recent drop in prices. It seems to me that prices should just continue to rise forever and ever – perhaps there's something the government can do about this situation. Solipsist: Yeah I was thinking about reigniting the anonymous comments again as well, just for fun. I was really hoping that some of the non-anonymous regulars would stick around with a google account: the poet, d_osh, etc, but there has been an absolute dearth of positive buyer sentiment lately.

patriotz
patriotz
13 years ago

maybe say 10 % as a median price change and stagnantation over the long haulA lot of markets in the US are way past that point already. As the US goes, so goes the world. I guess that promotes Darwins theory of Evolution. The strongest survives!!.Not only do the poor survive, they have more kids. Unless you have things like the potato famine.And speaking of Ireland, 1 of 7 houses in the country is vacant, the highest number since the famine. And this is at a time when Ireland is actually gaining population.

ReductiMat
ReductiMat
13 years ago

tired08, I wouldn't worry about the disparity between the rich and the poor. Things like that have a funny way of evening out in the end. And funny in the way of bloody revolutions.Well, at least that seems to happen every time the above situation appears for too long.

Tired08
Tired08
13 years ago

I noticed alot of the world is going through a housing market gold rush and things are finally slowing down. It is entirely possible that the whole market will become staGNAnt until incomes become more in line with housing prices. But I also notice the rich have been getting richer and the poor poorer…the middle class is shrinking therefore the disparity between the standard of living between different income classes will be greater and greater. I guess that promotes Darwins theory of Evolution. The strongest survives!!.The Rich have knowledge and expertise in their respective financial fields and will exploit rich or poor to get what he wants. So if you are poor…sorry too bad so sad.If you rich …watch your back and don't bend over your liable to get screwed too.Back to tho the topic . I think globally there… Read more »

Wisma Hitam
Wisma Hitam
13 years ago

Don't worry – affordable housing is still out there. I found some for example… Outlying regions of town? Sort of. We kept looking further and further out, until we got to Houston, Texas.It all worked for the best though. While the commute was a killer, I was able to find a job closer to my new home (at about twice the salary).Would I rather live in Kits? Yes. Can I say the same about PoCo. Uh, no.

Uncertain Buyer
Uncertain Buyer
13 years ago

scoop said… the popeUm, like hello, real estate is up 264 per cent in the last 25 years. What other investment safely and consistently produces returns of over 10% per year? Do I sense a lot of sarcasm here?

scoop
scoop
13 years ago

the popeUm, like hello, real estate is up 264 per cent in the last 25 years. What other investment safely and consistently produces returns of over 10% per year?

bakakuse
bakakuse
13 years ago

You need deep pockets and few brains to buy van real estate now. It's like the old adage, "How do you aquire a small fortune? Start with a big one."

Londonernow
Londonernow
13 years ago

You've got to be kidding. Vancouver real estate only goes up 'cause everyone wants to live there and last time I checked everyone didn't.

solipsist
solipsist
13 years ago

Rob has a professional reputation to uphold and he doesn't need the crap on his site, so I can't fault him for going the moderation route.Point well taken Vance. It was a shame how some abused Rob's good nature. He took a lot of guff before he enabled the moderation feature.I accidentally had the mod. feature enabled at first, and found it to be a pain. I killed the anon. feature through the request of readers. I didn't like to do it because there were some reasonable commenters that I presumed wanted anonymity without having multiple Google accounts.

Van Housing Blogger
Van Housing Blogger
13 years ago

Umm? Pope? When did you start this blog? Summer 2006. When did the market top and the bulls go away? Summer 2006. Connect the freakin' dots and look in the mirror, Mr. Pontiff!Solipsist: It got *very* weedy at my place with anon comments on. I have occassionally turned on the moderation when I've been hit by a lot of crap – like the day when Randallbard posted the same questionable material over one hundred times. I agree that moderation disrupts the flow. Still, Rob has a professional reputation to uphold and he doesn't need the crap on his site, so I can't fault him for going the moderation route.