Well this news is all over so its hard to ignore; after a recent comment about the worst of the US housing slump hopefully being over, Alan Greenspan commented today on the likelihood of a US recession hitting before the end of 2007.
â€œWhen you get this far away from a recession, invariably forces build up for the next recession, and indeed we are beginning to see that sign,â€ Mr. Greenspan said via satellite link to a business conference in Hong Kong. â€œFor example in the U.S., profit margins . . . have begun to stabilize, which is an early sign we are in the later stages of a cycle.â€
â€œWhile, yes, it is possible we can get a recession in the latter months of 2007, most forecasters are not making that judgment and indeed are projecting forward into 2008 . . . with some slowdown,â€ he said.
Mr. Greenspan said that while it would be â€œvery precariousâ€ to try to forecast that far into the future, he could not rule out the possibility of a recession late this year.
If a recession did strike the US later this year, I would be very surprised if the worst was over for the housing slump there, but If they can have a housing market slump during a boom, maybe they could have a real estate boom during a recession.