Greenspan warns of US recession.

Well this news is all over so its hard to ignore; after a recent comment about the worst of the US housing slump hopefully being over, Alan Greenspan commented today on the likelihood of a US recession hitting before the end of 2007.

“When you get this far away from a recession, invariably forces build up for the next recession, and indeed we are beginning to see that sign,” Mr. Greenspan said via satellite link to a business conference in Hong Kong. “For example in the U.S., profit margins . . . have begun to stabilize, which is an early sign we are in the later stages of a cycle.”

“While, yes, it is possible we can get a recession in the latter months of 2007, most forecasters are not making that judgment and indeed are projecting forward into 2008 . . . with some slowdown,” he said.

Mr. Greenspan said that while it would be “very precarious” to try to forecast that far into the future, he could not rule out the possibility of a recession late this year.

If a recession did strike the US later this year, I would be very surprised if the worst was over for the housing slump there, but If they can have a housing market slump during a boom, maybe they could have a real estate boom during a recession.

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vineland
vineland
13 years ago

Yup that pretty much sums up how I feel these days. Watching the old saving grow is great but I am getting incredibly tired of being treated like a second class citizen because we rent and don't own. It seems ludicrus that because we decided to save up a large downpayment before we bought we are looked on as being "screwed" but The Smiths who dish out all their income to pay a mortgage because they bought with zero down are "smart".I think B.C. favours this mentality. First, if you are on disability they look at your bank accounts, investments etc. but you don't even need to declare your house or car, so buy the Lamborghini and monster house and live on BC disability, save and they won't credit you for NOT owning a home. Secondly, they – the BC… Read more »

digi
digi
13 years ago

Hmm.. And the day after this story stock markets tumble around the globe.. Coincidence?

the pope
the pope
13 years ago

It's interesting how quickly and how widely Greenspan's acknowledgment has been disseminated and discussed online.Although his wording wasn't strong, it's remarkable that he would even bring up the possibility.I wish this f'ing RE crash would get here so my wife and I can buy a house and relax.It's frustrating, but I wouldn't count on any major changes in a short timespan without a shock to the system. Markets generally change very slowly while you're watching them.

Joe
Joe
13 years ago

"Blah,blah,blah. I wish this f'ing RE crash would get here so my wife and I can buy a house and relax."Yup that pretty much sums up how I feel these days. Watching the old saving grow is great but I am getting incredibly tired of being treated like a second class citizen because we rent and don't own. It seems ludicrus that because we decided to save up a large downpayment before we bought we are looked on as being "screwed" but The Smiths who dish out all their income to pay a mortgage because they bought with zero down are "smart".

Alpha_Bear
Alpha_Bear
13 years ago

"Hold your horses. First of all, what is the "real rate of inflation"? Second, by "definition" a recession is a decline in real GDP for TWO or more quarters."OK, maybe I'm getting too excited about the coming (present) recession. Perhaps the US is not in recession yet. I don't believe it, though. I don't believe the official (massaged) GDP figures, and I don't believe the official (massaged) inflation figures. With M3 increasing at the rate of 10% to 12% annually, all that liquidity has to go somewhere.I suspect that when we look back in a few years, it will be apparent that the US was in recession much earlier than officially announced.

blueskies
blueskies
13 years ago

Shanghai Composite index down by 8.8% wonder how much lower mainland refi'd equity is sitting in that market? isn't leverage wonderful?

Jim
Jim
13 years ago

Blah,blah,blah. I wish this f'ing RE crash would get here so my wife and I can buy a house and relax.

Freako
Freako
13 years ago

"Will 21 million people that come here have any money, or only boat fare? What will happen to China's economy when US economy goes plop?"If China stumbles badly along with U.S., we will get hit disproportionately hard due to resource exposure.

Freako
Freako
13 years ago

"The US is already in recession. The revised (downward) GDP figures are lower than the real rate of inflation, so (by definition) their economy is in recession."Hold your horses. First of all, what is the "real rate of inflation"? Second, by "definition" a recession is a decline in real GDP for TWO or more quarters.

quack
quack
13 years ago

Hey Vancouver are you ready to handel 21 million people.Can easily handle 21 million people in Vancouver shantytown. Will 21 million people that come here have any money, or only boat fare? What will happen to China's economy when US economy goes plop? Nobody to buy China's goods. Nobody will want the US dollar. Chinese economy will get screwed bad. Chinese workers will want real wages, no more big profits for businessmen. Prosperity will be gone. 21 millin people living in Vancouver shantytown.

satv
satv
13 years ago

FOUL OF SENSE'S—————I,you,we,they,them.could be champion's in one thing but when some other fact can create a foul of sense's.RECESSION is there since 2 year but price's in Vancouver are up not just because of olympics.Hey Vancouver are you ready to handel 21 million people.well immigration and migration tells us we need more home than currently being constructed.Biotechnology,Environmental Business,Film & TV,New Media, Telecom,Wireless.Business Advantages,Quality of Life,Infrastructure all these fact's need people to live and to run those things.When its come to real estate it is hard to advice some one.When I make profit i will credit my self.when i will lose i will accuse you to give me advice.person on his/her abilty to handel some thing can make his mind.beleive the wind price's are up and coming.why to buy why not to every body know's that

wizardofozziejurock
wizardofozziejurock
13 years ago

I was quite shocked to read this on the weekend. It kind of blows my theory about Greenspan's propensity (in his talking head role) to simply reflect back consensus opinion. This is definitely not consensus based on most analyst's recent calls. And, I checked over on Tradesports and they're running at about 16 to 20 out of 100 *for* a 2007 recession. The numbers have been steadily declining since earlier this year — although with a recent uptick.Is it possible that with each passing month, Greenie is feeling like he can depart from the standard Fed fare now that he's a free man? Or is this just the Fed (through the old Chief) telling the rest of us what the bond traders figured out long ago? (i.e. the inverted yield curve)

betamax
betamax
13 years ago

It's interesting how quickly and how widely Greenspan's acknowledgment has been disseminated and discussed online. IMO, if Greenspan will publicly allow the possibility of a recession, then privately he sees the economy going down Hindenburg style.It's going to be an interesting year.

Alpha_Bear
Alpha_Bear
13 years ago

What do you mean, "If a recession strikes the US…"?The US is already in recession. The revised (downward) GDP figures are lower than the real rate of inflation, so (by definition) their economy is in recession.

the pope
the pope
13 years ago

Thanks to Paul for the heads up on this story. If a recession strikes the US will our mountains protect us from the economic fallout?