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March 18th, 2007 at 1:30 pm
vintage,
Guilty as charged. No kids. And as I said, maybe I am just an arse. I apologize for calling you dude, I really didn’t mean to offend. It is not like we are speaking face to face, you and I are anonymous bloggers right now, so no disrepect intended. So I offer you my sincerest apologies. It is just a little back and forth.
I guess someone trying to be positive about Vancouver and point out it’s good points gets called an asshole, while the folks that say how much of a joke it is and how unbearable it is, is what keeps it pleasant:)
March 18th, 2007 at 1:06 pm
Unless more and more people from elsewhere flock here to accept the trade off.
Truth is the people moving here, for the most part, do so to escape abject poverty, or the law.
I don’t think finding a rich man’s outdoor playground offers much of a challenge. I can think of many places where the rich can frolic.
Where are the immigrants coming from?
March 18th, 2007 at 1:05 pm
freako, you said:
“Well that is your conclusion. It is an invididual decision. Others may happily accept the tradeoff”.
But of course. Shouldn’t we all have our individual opinions on things after all?
I have no problem with others disagreeing with me.
But I don’t call them “dude” and I don’t suggest that they get a reality check or whatever. That is after all one of the reasons why I don’t like this place anymore. It’s overpopulated with assholes (just like runawayscared promptly pointed out).
streel:
Thank you for a valuable life lesson. As soon as you get kids of your own, please come back so we can talk about shiny dad vs. contrary one.
March 18th, 2007 at 12:58 pm
freako,
Loved the gym membership analogy.
Spot on.
March 18th, 2007 at 12:53 pm
vintage,
My elderly friend, a little testy eh? I GET IT. You seem to be missing my point. What I am trying to say is that, if I were as unhappy as you seem to be, instead of pissing & moaning about it, I would make the appropriate lifestyle changes. Life is about priorities and a plan.
From what I gather from Chipman’s blog and here about you is that you have a decent townhouse to live in, somewhere around Metrotown and you have a decent job with competitive pay, benefits, etc… Your wife works and you have kids that are very important to you. Doesn’t sound so bad to me. If owning a home is your #1 coveted priority, then figure out how to do it. Be proactive, instead of negative. You seem to like Winnipeg, you have mentioned it a couple of times. So move to Winnipeg, it is not so bad, I have been there and have family there that find it grand. As much as I hate to say it, Chipman was right, home ownership is about sacrifices. Or stay and see how the correction treats you. I moved to Halifax to buy a house and live in domestic bliss because it was more feasable for me. My situation has changed and now that I can afford Vancouver I am planning on moving back. But not buying until I feel justified with RE value. Like runaway said some people in Van seem to view life as attrition.
If it doesn’t make sense for you, find somewhere that does. Life is to short to be miserable. I am sure that the kids would prefer shiny, happy dad as opposed to contrary dad. As someone who has made major sacrifices in life I agree with Warren, I have little to no patience for whiners.
March 18th, 2007 at 12:30 pm
“This place is NOT the best place to live. This place is a joke.
DO YOU GET IT NOW? “
Well that is your conclusion. It is an invididual decision. Others may happily accept the tradeoff. The aggregate, the price/quality of life indifference points determines the elasticity of demand, which sets prices. If more and more people feel like you there will be negative price pressure. Unless more and more people from elsewhere flock here to accept the trade off.
March 18th, 2007 at 12:26 pm
“How about a little data-based, RE talk?
Have you seen the new numbers at Chipman? they are great for the bears! “
Well if people want to discuss it, there is obviously interest in the topic. Topics are not mutually exclusive, and you can read what you want. I think it is very relevant, because it does determine the elasticity of demand. Are people so desperate to live here that they are willing to forego greater employement opportunities elsewhere to be mortgage slaves here, or will the high prices result in negative migration numbers. It is a very important point.
As for the inventory build-up, I can’t see us being that far behind the States, so it would not surprise me if we mirror them with a one year offset. When the levy breaks, it breaks.
March 18th, 2007 at 12:21 pm
Strangely, I agree with both Vintage and Streels views/observsations.
Vancouver does have great outdoor recreation opportunities. When I was in my 20′s (not that long ago), I took full advantage. Now much less so. Why? Responsibility. Less energy. And the reasons Vintage mentioned. Also, my social life revolved heavily around such things. Not so much anymore.
Myself aside, I do think Vancouver is ground zero for many extreme outdoor sports, and to many that is a huge draw. When do hook up with some friends to go outdoors, it is a great feeling. Even if I don’t utilize it as much as I should, it feels great to have the possibility. And why do people keep paying year in and year out for gym memberships that they don’t use? Because they plan to (yeah right).
These factors will keep me around for a long time. I have toyed with plans to move elsewhere, but I always plan to spend part of the year here.
Thus, I think Vancouver is a great city, but I don’t think it deserves the price levels we have now. It could well be that I am totally wrong, and increasing immigration will push densitites (and therefore prices) ever higher. On balance of probabilities, I don’t think that is the case. For one thing, as per VHB’s research, immigration is quite low at present. The one worrying thing is that rents are not being squeezed, and vacancies remain low. That is an enigma to me.
March 18th, 2007 at 12:06 pm
satv wrote “So you do realize that you were there.”
Most days. Some days are better than others. Quack, quck, I’m a duck.
March 18th, 2007 at 11:47 am
domus aurea said…
How about a little data-based, RE talk?
Have you seen the new numbers at Chipman? they are great for the bears!
Sometimes the numbers are up, sometimes the numbers are down. Chipman’s stats are as useless as his sidekick.
If numbers really mattered in this equation, the bubble would have never developed in the first place.
Furthermore, if data could tells us anything, we could simply plug the numbers into BIG BLUE, and Chipman and the usual suspects would have to get real jobs.
This one is for the Psychology Dept
Tick Tock, Tick Tock
March 18th, 2007 at 11:46 am
streel said:
“Good call, enjoy your greener pastures. Maybe you could add Baghdad as well to your list. I am sure that you could earn a few shillings there as well. Dude, you need a reality check.”
streel,
I think you either didn’t read the entire post or you misunderstood my point…
So let me say it again for you:
We are enjoying the time of unprecedented prosperity here, or so they say. The unemployment is at it’s lowest. There are plenty of jobs here and all you need to do is get up in the morning and show up to work to get paid.
However it is really too bad that all these jobs pay nine bucks an hour.
You cannot possibly survive on your own in this city making that kind of money… Do you realize this?
This is not Alberta or Afghanistan where you make $21/hr working in Tim Hortons. We have lower then average wages with higher than average expenses. This place is NOT the best place to live. This place is a joke.
DO YOU GET IT NOW?
March 18th, 2007 at 11:22 am
Guys:
I appreciate a little OT from time to time, but this conversation about vancouver vs the rest of Canada (and the world) is becoming a bit pointless….
How about a little data-based, RE talk?
Have you seen the new numbers at Chipman? they are great for the bears!
March 18th, 2007 at 10:52 am
patiently waiting,
I agree with most of your points,although my comment about the great restaurants, events, etc… was in direct relation to the Van – east coast city comment. As you know we have next to none.
Halifax seems to be doing alright lately but I have seen first hand many people leaving along with quite a few friends. I am sure that a great percentage of Fort Mac’s population drinks either Keiths or Black Horse.
I agree that housing is much more reasonable here and that was one of the reasons that I came back. But to me it is the other things that I mentioned that I truly miss and am willing to give up cheap housing in return for the lifestyle that I love. What made you go west from here?
I also agree with the poverty situation out there, quite sad really. But I guess it is easier to be homeless in plus 10 rather than minus 30.
Another agreement on Halifax nixing the 2014 games. Good call.
And by the way, congrats on the newfy wife, they rule! She would know what a streel is. Ask her.
March 18th, 2007 at 9:41 am
Where I grew up, there was one key rule, “Don’t call the cops on your neighbours”.
DUCK
So you do realize that you were there.
Streel Thanx
March 18th, 2007 at 9:15 am
as a citizen every single person is responsible to complain about when some thing bad happens or above to happen.
This sounds too much like East Germany, where neighbours spied on neighbours. It’s also what I imagine China was like during some of the so-called “revolutions”.
Where I grew up, there was one key rule, “Don’t call the cops on your neighbours”.
March 18th, 2007 at 9:13 am
but criticize entire city means insulting those people of honest club.
You interpretation of the original comments is quite unusual in this regard, to say the least.
Thus I didn’t take the original comments (which you objected to) as an insult to me personally; i.e., I didn’t take the comments as an attack on the entire city, for this would not commonly be the the context in which such remarks are made.
If I were to go to the office tomorrow and say “Vancouver sucks big time”, I don’t think anyone there would feel insulted.
March 18th, 2007 at 9:02 am
streel,
I agree about Stanley Park vs. Point Pleasant. Stanley Park is mostly fine unlike Point Pleasant which looks like a nuclear bomb hit it.
Halifax actually does keep many young people. It is the regional economic centre and a government town so it has lots of solid jobs and low unemployment. Jobs pay the same there as here with a lower cost of living. Career-wise, I’d be doing at least well there (I came back here for other reasons).
I do enjoy some of the BC amenities of Vancouver, but I would enjoy them a lot more living elsewhere in the province. Living in the city in the daily grind (and with the crappy weather lately), its easy to forget we live in this beautiful province. The beauty is further and further away as it gets eaten up by the spread of the development. Many of these amenities are getting less accessible and more expensive. The restaurants and major events are found in any major city. All these amenities are there for those who CAN afford them and have the time.
What really upsets about this city is the increase in poverty. This is good times. Wait until the next big recession (depression?) hits. Vancouver is all about booms and busts. This is the biggest boom, now for the biggest bust. Just in time for the Olympics? When the international microscope is on Vancouver, do we want massive riots? The way things are going, that’s what we’ll have. Halifax had the good sense to reject the games it couldn’t afford.
March 18th, 2007 at 8:48 am
A lot of Greenspan bashing in this thread. I agree he is partially responsible for this mess, but I would put more blame on Japan and China. Japan with near zero interest rates is flooding the world with liquidity. And China with it’s fixed exchange rate has to stockpile foreign currencies, since it can’t convert them. A lot of this excess liquidity is finding it’s way into North American bonds which is keeping our mortgage rates low. (The fed has no control over this, note the inverted yield curve).
Foreign ownership of US Treasuries has gone from about 20% between 1970-1995, to over 50% in 2005! Most of this debt is owned by Japan and China.
March 18th, 2007 at 8:29 am
I enjoy reading opposing views; I just wish they didn’t come from seriously intellectually flawed bulls.
My personal observation is that “the best place to live in the world†argument is often advanced by:
Realtors, local media, mortage lenders, small time politicians, who own land in the Fraser Valley, and
pathological liars who sell no money down courses.
March 18th, 2007 at 7:58 am
Sorry pope,
But he lobbed it and someone had to take a swing.
March 18th, 2007 at 7:49 am
vintage said
This is not Alberta (or Afghanistan) where you get $21.00 to work at Tim Horton’s. This place is a joke.
3/16/07 10:22 AM
Good call, enjoy your greener pastures. Maybe you could add Baghdad as well to your list. I am sure that you could earn a few shillings there as well. Dude, you need a reality check.
March 18th, 2007 at 7:14 am
I can’t believe that I am saying this but,
WELL SAID SATV, YOU NAILED IT!
March 18th, 2007 at 7:10 am
Freako said:
But I don’t follow the bit about renting and productivity. People earn money. They then spend, save or invest it. What does that have to do with productivity and renting?
I say:
Most people assume money is a measure of value. In reality, it’s basically a transmission of value.
Almost every product in a sane world has its own value, but whether we are willing to pay that or not depends upon each individual. A typical home owner mortgages the home as a primary resident. He or she values the property as basic shelter and nothing more and thus value it as such. The amount of money he or she’s willing to pay is the transmission of that present value , which is locked when mortgage issued after thoughtful consideration. If the same person is using drawn capital from his fully paid home equity to finance another home purchase for investment income purposes, he would do the same as he did before on his 1st home, but instead make the tenant pay for his mortgage, assuming a reasonable historical P/R ratio with all things being equal. If you see this, the money is being put into very productive work. It is building equity and has the potential to generate additional income in the future for the landlord. The key to this is present value, because that’s what any real estate investor is willing to pay to gauge the plausible future return on equity based on the investment climate at the time.
Unfortunately, these days, real estate value can not be predicted in its present value. Intrinsic value is non-existant in a RE bubble. Investors who buy into these homes expect more on the return “of” equity (flipping) rather than “on” it. Why should they?? P/R ratios are way off the roof.
These rampant home speculation is a kin to “futures contracts”, because the final sale price is only agreed upon in a future date. When that maybe is determined by both parties. But the insane amount of people buying condo pre-sales, land in Alberta and are being traded in Winhandel or our “Craig’s List” is nothing more than trading futures contracts.
In the next downturn, whoever get stuck with expensive homes and decide to rent in the hopes of a next upturn will find a big surprise. With their homes’ PR ratio off the roof, they will increasingly find themselves subsidizing most of their inflated mortgages with the tenant in it, while maybe all if their homes sit empty.
This is akin to forced savings on their part. And you know what excessive savings is to the Keynesian economy.
And here lies the problem. 69% of Americans hold a mortgage, whereas only 20% hold stocks directly in the last dot.com bubble. I’m sure BC numbers are going to be relatively similar. Just imagine the sheer number of people being forced to save (pay back mortgages) can place a big damper on the economy. If lots of people walk from their mortgages, banks will become reluctant to lend new money like in Japan.
March 18th, 2007 at 7:09 am
Don’t get me wrong, I do love both Halifax and St. John’s (townie as well). But after living at least ten years in all three cities, Vancouver is the place for me. Sure it rains ( Gore-Tex), but you have the best weather in Canada. This is Canada, we just got another snow/ice storm this weekend and I remember alot of single digit foggy summer days in St. John’s.
Vancouver is voted among the top cities in the world by publications such as Outside,etc.. for it’s abundant, first rate outdoor pursuits. A relatively short commute brings you climbing, hiking, mtn biking in the abundance of mtns, diving in places like Wytecliffe, Pourteau Cove, sea/ whitewater kayaking, and lets not forget things like world class ski resorts and the lovely local hills and other leisurely activities such as golf and sailing. You can leave your boat in the water 12 months a year. That is just outdoor shite not to mention the restaurants, professional sports, major concerts and cultural events.
My point in all of this is, (and per pope’s wishes I am being civilized) I really enjoy these blogs and agree with the coming correction. (I can’t wait), but I don’t get the slagging of Vancouver like it is some hellhole. The cup is half full for me and you have to decide where your priorities lie. Perhaps you can follow VHB down the road. Good luck to you. VHB always seemed to stick up for the city’s plusses and duly carved the local RE and MSM scams. As I am firmly in the bear camp, I see these disparaging comments as being cannon fodder for the annoying bulls that like to talk about the long in the tooth, whining bears. Stop already, a correction should be coming shortly so sit back and enjoy the ride. Maybe you have bigger issues and need to make some life decisions. Nowhere and nothing is perfect, such is life. As runaway said at least Newfs have the sense to move to greener pastures:)
You can’t honestly believe that you live in the only city with a drug/crime problem? We have an ongoing drug war complete with the obligatory drive bys and gangs of vibrant youths doing all sorts of lovely community related activities;)
As far as Stanley Park being ruined, have a look online and see what Juan did to Point Pleasant Park for some perspective. 6000 trees down for you, 40 000 trees down for us. Good luck with that sympathy.
Halifax may be youthful and vibrant as it is a university town and has a bar scene second to none,but many of the youth upon graduation leave here and go west. When you tire of the bar scene and hopefully you do, you realize that it has a well worn and well deserved staid reputation. But as I said, nowhere is perfect and arrogance is just a generic yuppie scum/artsy phenomenon that I have encountered in all of my travels.
That is my two cents, but maybe I am just an arse
March 18th, 2007 at 7:03 am
DUCK
Dialogue
Never ever ask your country/city what did they do for you.
Always ask your self what did you do for your city/country.
There are by laws inforcement every where in the world.
Dishonesty,cheating,drugs,rape,murders,forgery,is invisible in human’s mind.
no body knows unless some one get cought.
as a citizen every single person is responsible to complain about when some thing bad happens or above to happen.
to be in a state or to be as witness is kind of equal crime if some one does not report.
world is honest/dishonest club person join one of them.
when citizen and law does not bring bad to justice that creat history.
I as citizen will ask my self where I was when things were happening.
I will criticize my self that I did not help my city/country to get better.
I am doing it
but criticize entire city means insulting those people of honest club.
insulting those people who put there heart and soul to improve the city.Insulting force that keep city up and going.
there are tonz of things those are good/bad
we enjoy good and participate to eleminate bad.
that takes one man to secrew up.takes all to make it better.
March 18th, 2007 at 1:33 am
seems like that education you have got have a negtive effects what you need to do is discard you brain and go to school again.
satv, it’s not education that led our friend to criticize the city. Rather, it’s discernment, a special gift given to a certain minority of sentient beings.
Discernment is related to common sense, but a bit classier. And speaking of common sense, you know what they say … common sense isn’t all that common. And sadly, discernment is even rarer.
Little known fact: The letters in your first question “Which city is best in the world” can be re-arranged to form the sentence “Hot twin wish this red bicycle”. More importantly, your question “which city is beautiful” can be re-arranged to “Icy wife cut his halibut”.
March 18th, 2007 at 1:12 am
Which city is best in the world?
It’s not Vancouver. Look outside. Can you see the sky? Is there warmth from the sun with which to enjoy the city?
Which city is beautiful?
It’s not Vancouver. Look outside. Can you see the sky? Is there sunlight with which to see the city?
Which city is drug free?
It’s not Vancouver. Look outside. Can you see the sky? It doesn’t matter. You can see the discarded needles and condoms in parks next to schools, even without the sunlight.
Which city is best liveable?
Look outside. Can you see the rain? Well, for a duck Vancouver is livable because it’s always so wet.
March 18th, 2007 at 12:46 am
I do disagree about retirement, Vancouver seems to be about the last place in Canada anyone could or would retire to. The Island and the Okanagan for those who can afford it, yes.
Many immigrants from Asia/Europe would think of Vancouver as retirement town; whites may retire to elsewhere in BC.
The foreign money is a huge factor in supporting vancouver real estate.
I also like to congrat Runawau for taking the time to discuss Vancouver in a no-holding-back way.
I myself have to leave Vancouver for jobs in the 90′s.
Then things turned and turned and found myself back here, not entirely according to my wishes, as Vancouver is expensive to own a house and opportunities are far more limited.
Then again Vancouver is not expensive to rent; so as long as one’s comfortable with the status quo to be a renter, and really like the outdoors near here, and can accept a less-than-stellar career opportunity, then ok.
March 17th, 2007 at 9:40 pm
I disagree runawayscreaming
—————————
Which city is best in the world?
Which city is beautiful?
Which city is drug free?
Which city is best liveable?
What kind of education is graduated from a university professional program
that teach you to swear and insult people and city.
you seems like loser that miss the bouns of R.E.
What do you call fliper and condo b/s
when some one risk their money how do they know they will be making profit???
and if some one lose in investment are you going to return them what they have spend.
seems like that education you have got have a negtive effects what you need to do is discard you brain and go to school again.
March 17th, 2007 at 8:43 pm
Kinda, like a rare piece of postage stamp sized, east van lot. for 750k?
Pretty much the same degree of folly, possibly with a similar outcome?
March 17th, 2007 at 8:08 pm
I’ve also lived in Halifax and St. John’s (my wife is a Townie).
My experience in St. John’s was brief. I loved it for the short time I was there but it was a culture shock. Nothing like Vancouver, not one bit.
We were in Halifax a longer time, even owned a house, and there were some similarities to Vancouver. But many more differences. Halifax is actually a very youthful, vibrant city compared to greying Vancouver. Young families with average incomes can buy houses in nice neighbourhoods.
March 17th, 2007 at 8:04 pm
streel said:
“The draw to me with Vancouver is the outdoor lifestyle. In that regard it is a huge world class city. I really don’t understand anyone paying to live there and not taking advantage of the spectacular outdoor ammenities. If you are working and going home to watch TV move to suburban Ontario, or Atlantic Canada and save some money”.
If you’re working in Richmond and live in Abbottsford, by the time you get home after work you hardly have time to watch tv, nevermind partaking in any of the great outdoor activities that are supposedly abundant around here…
We went for a trip to Seymour mountain the other day to take the kids tubbing.
From our place in Burnaby it took us almost two hours in a gridlock on HWY #1 to get to North Van… in pouring rain. Nothing like “are we there yet… are we there yet”… for two hours…
I can hardly wait for the summer to come so I can go camping to Cultus Lake just to come back the same evening, because there won’t be any spots left, as usual, again.
It’s funny, but our lifestyle was much more outdoor-like when we lived in Winnipeg, out of all places…
Nothing like the mountain view that you know know is there, even though you cannot see it through the thick cloud cover and layers of torrential rain… Unless you’re into high-endurance high intensity extreme sports that build character (like mountain biking in mudslides) Vancouver is hardly the best place to enjoy outdoors, IMHO.
BC in general is stunning in its beauty and it is as close to paradise as it gets in Canada, but Vancouver? Stanley Park was cool, but there isn’t much left of it now… so what is there?
March 17th, 2007 at 7:55 pm
Yeah, we’ll be applying to a co-op. This housing bubble deflation is going to be long and nasty so we’d rather escape the whole mess. Even renting is difficult in times like this.
We are going to concentrate on a couple of Burnaby co-ops that we already know a little bit and find out more about them. Its too bad they haven’t built many of them, especially in the last few years.
March 17th, 2007 at 7:15 pm
“A wealthy merchant had paid 3,000 florins (280 pounds sterling) for a rare Semper Augustus tulip bulb”
Kinda, like a rare piece of postage stamp sized, east van lot. for 750k?
March 17th, 2007 at 5:05 pm
Runaway,
Great post. Reminds me of my thoughts on Vancouver when I left in 99 for Halifax. Being a coastal type guy, I have lived in Vancouver, St. John’s (hometown) and Halifax. I will say that no place is perfect and they all have their pros/cons. I always wondered about the self righteous suffering in Vancouver as well.
While people here in Atlantic Canada seem friendly, it is a bastardly place to earn a decent living. People here hate to spend a nickel and nothing greases the wheel. The business/service climate is very second rate compared to Vancouver, which is second rate compared to other cities.
Given the choice I would much prefer to live in Vancouver as opposed to here and am planning on returning ASAP. Although I will definately wait before buying re.
When we lived out there my wife worked in a very exclusive travel agency and got completely disgusted by people, where I worked in a technical industry and found people fine. Like freako said, assholes are everywhere and they sure exist here on the east coast as well. Just depends on the circles you run with.
The draw to me with Vancouver is the outdoor lifestyle. In that regard it is a huge world class city. I really don’t understand anyone paying to live there and not taking advantage of the spectacular outdoor ammenities. If you are working and going home to watch TV move to suburban Ontario, or Atlantic Canada and save some money.
I also miss the cultural diversity that Vancouver has, the east coast is still predominately redneck white, no wonder immigrants don’t want to come here.
As much as I enjoyed your post Vancouver is nothing like St.John’s, or Halifax except that we are on the all important ocean.
March 17th, 2007 at 4:40 pm
TickTock: Please, tick, tock, tick tock is a trademark reserved by Tulipmania, long ago.
Ticktock, I think Tulipmania is being unnecessarily exclusionary, since I note that “tick tock” has become embedded in our literature and others use the phrase with impunity.
Having said this, I think we must recognize that our dear friend must be given special consideration. After all, Tulipmania was in fact so named by his famous father, Christiaan Huygens, the Dutch mathematician who patented the first pendulum clock around 1656. Fortunately Huygens was a good inventor, because he had lost his family’s inherited fortune during the crash of the Dutch tulip market, which had peaked around the late 1630s. Indeed, it has been said that one of Tulipmania’s ancestors was the merchant referred to in the Wikipedia article on tulip mania, as follows: “A wealthy merchant had paid 3,000 florins (280 pounds sterling) for a rare Semper Augustus tulip bulb, and it disappeared from his warehouse. After thoroughly searching his warehouse, he saw a sailor (who had mistaken the tulip bulb for an onion) eating it. The sailor was promptly arrested and spent months in jail.”
With this mind, I like to cut tulipmania a little slack. After all, who else do you know that can claim both “tulip mania” and “tick tocking” in their family tree?
Full disclosure: (a) I’m short on Vancouver RE; (b) I’m a renter; (c) I have an increasingly slim grasp on reality.
Unknown fact: The letters in “tulip maniac” (which has “c” added and is thus not referring to our friend Tulip mania) can be rearranged to “A lunatic imp”.
March 17th, 2007 at 4:31 pm
“And why is the FED keeping track of M1, M2 and M3 money in its financial publication report if they are not following the Keynesian economic theorm, these money tracking aren’t necessary then right?”
The Fed has not published M3 for almost a full year. An estimated reconstruction of M3 indicates that it’s growing at the rate of about 13% annually. All that liquidity has to go somewhere.
Don’t get me started on the $57 Billion the Fed dumped over a two day period to prop up the stock market last week. They wouldn’t manipulate the markets, would they?
That sound you can hear is the helicopter turbines spooling up.
Keep an eye on the global stock markets this week. When the Asian and European markets drop in succession (again), you’ll see some more frantic manipulation of the US markets. It’s looking more and more like 1929 (except worse).
March 17th, 2007 at 2:52 pm
patiently waiting…
Thanks for your questions.
When we sold in late 2004, a realtor bought our unit and was going to rent it out. We made a deal with him that we would be able to rent it back for as long as we wanted at a fixed price. This would allow us to investigate our next move and to do it at our own pace, on our schedule. He agreed. We would not have sold otherwise.
You can’t “judge a book by its cover”, but believe it or not, visual appearances are a good initial indicator. When we looked at the different places, we asked ourselves, would we want to live there?
You also get a sense for the type of people that live there. Are they messy? Are there broken down cars in the driveways? Is the place in poor repair? Do people take pride in their homes, or are they treated like garbage dumps? Things like that.
We also talked to people. When we became interested in this co-op, we would go for walks in the neighborhood around the complex, and also through the complex. We did this quite a few times, at different times of the day, and days of the week. When we would see someone in the complex, we would talk to them. Ask them what they thought of the people in the complex, the units themselves, etc.
We also got a “feel” for the type of neighborhood it was in.
With regards to hearing anything about co-ops in New West or Burnaby, I’m sorry, I do not have any particular information. There is a government website dedicated to housing in BC and I think that there is a link on it to a co-op specific website, but I haven’t looked at it recently. You may be able to get a list of co-ops from there, or at least get a phone number for someone who might be able to get that for you.
As far as being easy to get in, I would say that you may need to be patient. It was about nine months from the time we applied to the time we moved in. I’ve heard of some people waiting longer (especially for subsidized units), some shorter.
When we put in our application, we were put on a waiting list for an unsubsidized unit. A couple of months later, we were called in for an interview. This gave us an opportunity to meet some of the people on the board. It also gave us a good impression of the type of management in place for the complex.
The way things work on our membership commitee is that every few months, they interview prospective applicants, and then “pre-approve” the ones they would like to have living in the complex. This allows the board to have a list of people to call from when an opening occurs. They were also kind enough to tell us how many people were ahead of us on the list.
In that respect, the housing boom may be a big help. In our situation, the complex did not normally have a very high turnover, but due to some families purchasing and moving out, a few openings materialized sooner than expected. We were prepared to wait for this specific complex, but we were glad to not have to wait too long.
Also, even though there were a few people ahead of us, many people are not patient, so they don’t wait. When they get called, they turn down the opportunity because they have already moved, etc.
As far as the upgrades, I was surprised a bit myself. I guess that the co-op organization sets aside out of their income enough money to upgrade a certain number of units per year, as well as make necessary repairs. As far as getting repairs done, small items (under $20) we are expected to take care of ourselves. Anything larger, it just takes a phone call to get it dealt with.
With regards to the feeling of community, I would have to say that we do feel very much like a community. The board expects one person from each unit to sign up for a period of three months to contribute to the well being of the complex each year. Some people contribute by being on the membership commitee, others do a little clean up around the garbage bin once a week, etc. Nothing major, but people are expected to contribute once in a while if they can.
As far as I’m concerned, if one wants to rent, you will not find a much better situation than in a well run co-op.
March 17th, 2007 at 2:30 pm
Contrary to what most people think in Vancouver…your “house†doesn’t generate income
Of course it generates income. It’s called imputed rent, which is the market value of the shelter it provides.
The problem is that one, a lot of people don’t seem to understand that the current yield is subpar, and two a lot of people think unrealized capital gains are income. These two factors are hallmarks of a bubble market.
And a parting shot re Greenspan: over his two decades at the Fed he may well have made a few moves that Keynes would have agreed with, but that does not make him a “Keynesian” by any stretch. He was a cheerleader for the chronic deficits that were a hallmark of almost his entire tenure. And last but by no means least, Keynes was a very forceful critic of bubble markets. Need I say more.
March 17th, 2007 at 1:59 pm
casual observer,
Thanks for your response. It is valuable information.
How did you research the different co-ops? By good and bad, are referring to the structures, the people in them, or both? Have heard anything about any particular New West or South/East Burnaby co-ops?
Was it is easy to get in?
What really impresses me is the free upgrades. I was worried that it would be merely tolerable housing.
Do you feel a greater sense of community than in the non-co-op places you lived?
March 17th, 2007 at 1:38 pm
patiently waiting said…
Anyone here familiar with co-ops? I understand many are like leaky condos but I’m still considering it for the short-term. I figure I might have a more stable home but also escape the crazy housing market.
I am very familiar with co-ops as my family and I have been living in one for the last year and a half, as we wait out this current RE bubble.
We sold in 2004 and hope to buy back in when prices make more financial sense.
With co-ops, you get the best of renting, with almost none of the downsides. Most require you to buy into them with a share purchase (like a large damage deposit). Normally it’s a couple of thousand dollars. Ours was $2500.
I would caution you to do your homework first, though, as there are just as many “bad” co-ops as “good” ones.
The major benefit to co-ops is what is called “Security of tenure”, which is a fancy way of saying that as long as you pay your rent and don’t break the rules, you can’t be forced to move. Having rented a house that we had to vacate because it was sold, we certainly appreciate this.
The other benefits are that most co-ops that I know of are run by a non-profit organization, so the rental rates are set based on actual maintenance and tax costs, etc. This can mean that the rental rates are lower for comparable properties.
Our co-op has a certain number of “subsidized” units, where CMHC pays a subsidy, and the rent is based on a percentage of the occupants’ family income, however, the majority of units (like ours) are un-subsidized. Even so, our rent is about 75 percent of what it would normally cost to rent a townhouse this size (1700 sq. ft.). If we were to buy a comparable unit, our costs would more than double. We are using the savings to keep building our downpayment.
We have also had our entire bathroom upgraded (new bathtub, toilet, sink, etc.), all of the vinyl flooring has been replaced in the entire unit, our furnace repaired, and our hot water tank replaced in the last 18 months. All at no cost to us.
When we investigated this co-op, what we were impressed with was the fact that there were people living in the complex that have been here since it was built 25 years ago. These people were not welfare bums either, they chose to live here.
Also, the people on the board stated that when they accepted new members, they tried to maintain a good mix of people in the complex (ie – families, retirees, professionals, blue collar, etc.) at all income levels so that it contributed to a balanced community.
I think it’s great. We have all the security we need if we want to stay here 2 years, 5 years, ten years, or whatever. With a family, that’s important to us. However, if we come across that perfect home at the right price, we’re free to move with two months notice, and we get our share purchase price back in full when we leave.
March 17th, 2007 at 12:50 pm
The Alchemists thought they could turn iron into gold.
Greenspan thought you could turn paper into wealth.
Nobody listens to the Alchemists anymore, but they still pay a senile delusional man thousands of dollars to speak at functions.
TickTock:
Please, tick, tock, tick tock is a trademark reserved by Tulipmania, long ago.
It has been used effectively to emotionally cripple many perma bulls.
I would rather you did not use the phrase, but if you do, please use it with caution.
March 17th, 2007 at 11:32 am
Rennie Has Left The Building
Did anyone notice the full page ad in the Sun for Rennie’s new “Shangri-La” in …….
TORONTO!!!!
Did the fat lady just sing?
March 17th, 2007 at 11:22 am
Anyone here familiar with co-ops? I understand many are like leaky condos but I’m still considering it for the short-term. I figure I might have a more stable home but also escape the crazy housing market.
March 17th, 2007 at 11:11 am
You’re right on the money Runaway…
I grew up on the west coast and spent 30 years in the Vancouver area. I was in Toronto for the last 6 years which was difficult at first, but was the best decision I’ve made in my life – regardless of what job I held. In 6 short years I was able to position myself for better things.
After stripping out all of the emotion out of my decision…I returned to Vancouver for a few reasons…spend some time with my family…build my career even more…and increase my income. I was “highly mobile”…which is something I learned is one of the keys to success.
I’ve worked for some extremely successful companies, most of them located in the west. When it comes to working…I’ve always treated myself as a commodity. We’re reaching the top of the bell curve for the baby boomers in Canada and for those of us between 35 and 45…the fun has just begun with employers looking for good talent. The only opportunity to increase your income in these times is through planned job changes because employers are putting a lot into attracting talent these days and aren’t doing much to maintain that talent. Just think…if you were a big bank and knew that 40% of my staff would be retiring in the next 5 to 10 years, what would you do to get talent?
Although east is experiencing an economic slowdown in output for the next year or two, we have to remember that the east is the economic engine of Canada. The financial, media, fashion, manufacturing, and entertainment industries are owned by the east. This isn’t a “we / they are better than us†argument…nor is it a slag on the contribution that every Canadian city has to offer…it’s just merely the facts, as are these…
- salaries in pay 15-20% more in the east for the same positions in the exact same companies
- housing costs for equivalent neighborhoods in the east are 15-20% more affordable
- fuel and entertainment costs are 10-15% less in the east
- only 12% of Canadian household incomes are greater than $100K
- only 3% of Canadian individual incomes are greater than $100K
Yes, Vancouver is beautiful, but I have always questioned the quality of life a Vancouverite will have with a $4000 / mth mortgage payment. I admire alot of the people who post on this blog because they’re part of that elite group of society that isn’t affected by the brainwashing of the mass media. Last time I checked…Canada has one of the largest land masses in the world…and we’re supposed to be “running out of land”. So our dream of having a “home†shouldn’t be confused with the dream of a comfortable life…they are not related. Housing prices in Vancouver are…well to put it simple…stupid.
I’ve rented, owned and now I’m back to renting. As much as I hate renting, I do…only because there is zero sense to owning in Vancouver at this time. Also, Vancouver has developed into a socially anal city where “owners†have been pitted against “renters†as if we are less worthy or less intelligent. I was recently confronted by an “owner†when I parked 3 ft away from the “official†loading area in the condo building. Subsequent to this, I received a terse notice from the condo management company informing me that my behaviors as a “Tenant†were being monitored.
It’s clear to me that most of us on this blog know the difference between an investment and a home. So…for those that don’t know…a home is a place you live…and an investment generates you income. Contrary to what most people think in Vancouver…your “house†doesn’t generate income. If you take your $200K of cash out of your investment portfolio making a modest 8% return (12% if you’ve had it in bank stocks/funds for the last 10 years) are you guaranteed those same returns compounded in your “home� Are you guaranteed those same returns in a “rental property�
There is an elephant sitting in the corner. Before you know it, we’ll all be wondering what to do with this elephant that we’ve never seen before. We’re all responsible for our own actions so keep arming yourself with real information…it’s places like this blog that allow us to make informed decisions through the sharing of ideas and crossing of “official†publications that make us think twice before making the next step.
It’s not a matter of “if†the market will turn, it’s “whenâ€. We live in an insane social, political, and economic bubble in Vancouver….there is one thing that we all need to keep in mind fellow bloggers….change is constant…. I guarantee it.
Keep up the great postings guys!
Ticktock
March 17th, 2007 at 11:11 am
“Paper or now “digital” money had never been backed by any physical assets for more than 30 years.”
36 years, when Bretton-Woods collapsed.
“One person with 4 or 10 homes, where the other 3 or 9 may sit empty thus providing absolutely no productivity at any level. Even if these excessively priced homes become rental units, they don’t provide the same productivity as homes bought by real owners. Renters don’t furnish a home like a home owner does. Therefore, these excessive money that was supposedly to promote growth had now become a liability, or to be correctly termed foreign liability. “
I buy the notion that the boom has led to misallocation. Constructing building for which there is speculative but not physical demand is wasteful.
But I don’t follow the bit about renting and productivity. People earn money. They then spend, save or invest it. What does that have to do with productivity and renting?
March 17th, 2007 at 10:48 am
You know the world has gone mad when the 1 bedrooms off of The Drive that you looked around in 2001 ($80,000) are now selling for $250k+.
Years ago, the Drive was a low-priced refuge for the working poor. Now it’s an over-priced refuge for middle class liberals with working class pretensions, hypocrites who disdain Starbucks but think it’s cool to pay too much for coffee at ‘authentic’ Euro-trash coffee bars.
March 17th, 2007 at 10:43 am
Patriotz said:
If banks actually lent out money 1:1, money supply would expand infinitely. It is precisely because they are required to keep fractional reserves that the money supply is contained.
And of course fractional reserves decrease the profits that the banks make on interest spreads.
Fiat money has nothing to do with fractional reserve banking. The former simply means money not backed by physical assets (what we used to call paper money)
I say:
Paper or now “digital” money had never been backed by any physical assets for more than 30 years. But its ancient origin was to provide a receipt for the asset stored by the bank, hence the term “Bank Note” But even during those times, it didn’t stop the bank from issuing more notes than asset backed.
But having said that, the only thing that our digital money is currently being backed from is the interest rate.
While you are correct in stating that less spreads made with fractional reserve banking, you are ignoring the fact that ability for more loans to be made and its economic implications, thus negating this. Think of it like weight training. Actually, less weight more reps promotes as equal as body building as more weight and less reps. The former technique reduces injury especially for a beginner. This is what fractional banking does. More money to induce better productivity with little capital.
Unfortunately, good ideas can led to extreme abuses.. Look at housing. During the boom phase, easy money allow people to get into housing which they would otherwise couldn’t afford. When they own a home, they would undeniably purchase second or 3rd order goods to complement their initial purchase. TVs, stereos, furniture, washer, toaster and what not enhances the other economies of scale. But once this extra money had done its bidding to promote productivity to a certain point, then it can become a source of inflated speculation. It does nothing to further inflate productivity in a certain asset class (real estate). One person with 4 or 10 homes, where the other 3 or 9 may sit empty thus providing absolutely no productivity at any level. Even if these excessively priced homes become rental units, they don’t provide the same productivity as homes bought by real owners. Renters don’t furnish a home like a home owner does. Therefore, these excessive money that was supposedly to promote growth had now become a liability, or to be correctly termed foreign liability. Eventually, there will be a re-allocation back to capital which we call it a recession. Again, if you look closely at the FED chart for M1 and M2 money, you could see a sharp spike in allocation back to capital preceding almost “ALL” recession. According to the latest M1 and M2 chart, 07 is almost looking like a recession is brewing.
March 17th, 2007 at 10:37 am
I am with rentah on this one. I have always heard stories about a certain cities great hospitality, or in some cases rudeness. But when I travelled, I found that experiences often contradicted the stereotype. For example, not a single person was rude to me in Paris even though I never even tried to use my Grade 10 French. So what gives?
I think the answer is that it totaly depends on who we run in to. Many nouveau rich can be arrogant, whether they live in Toky, Vancouver or Reykjavik. Same for young uppity financial industry folks. But that is about as far as I can draw the generalization. Other than at the margins, I don’t think much has changed.
March 17th, 2007 at 10:21 am
Yes, runaway, you should post more often.
As for the decline of civility in Vancouver, people have to remember that times are supposedly economically good right now. What will happen when the sh*t hits the fan? I suspect the least of which all these condo developments full of 600 square foot hamster cages will become instant slums. They will not be worthwhile at any price. If people cannot behave themselves now, just wait until the moment of truth hits them square in the face.