Friday free-for-all
Here’s the open topic for Friday March 23rd. Some recent links of interest:
-First time buyers refuse to get priced out
-Maybe they’re buying flipped houses
-Some realtors change the asking price after closing
-Sales up prices down in the USA
What are you seeing in your neighborhood / city / country? This is the place to post ideas, opinions, and links.
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March 27th, 2007 at 9:38 am
But that was obviously just a classic example of a fat-fingered typo, BTW.
March 27th, 2007 at 9:37 am
You’re right guys, I’m full of it.
Or should I say full od it, perhaps?
March 27th, 2007 at 9:10 am
I dunno, “od” appears to mean something. He used it both times in the same place in the sentence.
March 27th, 2007 at 8:58 am
dog: Bunch od lazy amateurs
What does “od” mean?
Oh, the irony….
March 27th, 2007 at 8:40 am
drachen,
I agree with you. Education has little to do with it.
In which case I should modify my previous statement to read:
Bunch od lazy amateurs flipping condos hoping to get rich quickly with minimum effort. Pathetic.
March 27th, 2007 at 8:17 am
I don’t think it’s a lack of education that’s the problem dog. There’s lots of examples of people with little or no education who ended up very successful, Richard Branson for example has dyslexia, can’t spell for crap and has difficulty reading.
The REAL problem IMO is the laziness. Expecting that if you invest in housing you’ll make money no matter how little work you put into it. This guy wasn’t even motivated enough to buy a fixer upper and flip, he bought assignments and is now trying to sell them before completion and make a killing.
March 27th, 2007 at 7:50 am
ulsterman said:
Dog, why do you figure the poster sucks at spelling? The odd fat-fingered typo doesn’t mean you suck at spelling. And no, i’m not the one selling the condos.
Well, how about:
“2 Yaletown Condo’s“
or
“corner units, with balcony’s“
or
“NO GST ON ASSIGNMNET”
or
“black granite counter tops“
I simply think that if you have a million dollar product for sale the least you can do is get your marketing materials checked for spelling errors.
To me that very ad is a perfect illustration of what’s wrong with Vancouver’s real-estate market:
Bunch od uneducated amateurs flipping condos hoping to get rich quickly with minimum effort. Pathetic.
March 26th, 2007 at 9:24 pm
we have two months to find a place to rent, 1 dog 1 cat and 2000 books
I found that many private owners will happily accept good tenants with pets over questionable tenants without.
When looking for a place 2 years ago, I called several ads which explicitly stated “no pets” and began by telling them about my wife and I and our white-collar occupations, then mentioned our well-behaved labrador retriever and two cats.
I talked most into at least accepting the idea of the pets on the strength of us as tenants, and eventually ended up turning down several offers before choosing our current place.
I began my search quite hesitantly, but soon realized that being a ‘gold standard’ tenant carried a lot of weight with owners.
Apartments, on the other hand, are generally a waste of time because the managers are bound by arbitrary rules they have no control over.
Good luck with your search!
March 26th, 2007 at 9:20 pm
balcony’s Somehow units views and condos avoided the dreaded apostrophe but he found the need to put it on balcony to pluralize…
Other than that no particularly bad mistakes…
There is something wrong with his brain, but it doesn’t seem to affect his english skills much.
I guess you can be gullible without being stupid… I wonder how gullible someone will have to be to buy one of those condos.
March 26th, 2007 at 8:19 pm
Dog, why do you figure the poster sucks at spelling? The odd fat-fingered typo doesn’t mean you suck at spelling. And no, i’m not the one selling the condos.
March 26th, 2007 at 6:35 pm
I just looked at the above ad on craigslist… for someone holding around one million dollars worth of real estate assets this guy sure sucks at spelling.
March 26th, 2007 at 1:45 pm
Local observation from Craigslist. This person has been trying to flip the assignment for a while now. Started at around $520K and down to $457K now.
I wonder what happens when the building is finished and carrying cost starts to weigh down the flipper.
March 26th, 2007 at 1:18 pm
whybuy:
our rentals were at the low end
Electra: no parking no pets
Metropolis: no parking small 1 bedroom with large patio
Space: small studio high floor
good view but no parking
and too small for 2 people & pets
Eden: our listing: V632757
our current home just sold
nice place but very noisy
– street noise on Thursday, Friday and Saturday evenings was overwhelming
2 blocks from Granville party central
boom cars, heavy motorcycles, people screaming and yelling till 4:30 AM
ambulances and fire trucks… the only thing we didn’t hear was gunfire….
we are getting too old for this stuff
1 year from now we will check out a SFH East side, older home with south back yard and unfinished basement
we don’t want a “mortgage helper”
and maybe find a small condo in Victoria if prices do correct, we spend a bit of time there, currently use Marriott Inner Harbour, very pet friendly
20 DOM, purchasers are FTB currently renting in Concord Pacific bldg.
We’ve been homeowners since 1981 first in Calgary and than Vancouver so this is a bit of an adventure
March 26th, 2007 at 12:26 pm
Question for Blueskies:
>>>we are now homeless, landless peasants as such. we have two months to find a place to rent, 1 dog 1 cat and 2000 books< <<
>>>sold $525,000 purchased preconstruction in Sept ‘01 at $242,000< <<
Blue–
Out of curiousity, did you consider hanging on to one condo? Either the one you live in, or, better, move into one of the rentals.
Here’s what my reasoning might have been:
Benefits
* defer cap gains (20% of 250K = 50K) (if you move into a rental)
* eliminate comission (5% of 500K = $25K)
* eliminate risk of undesired future moves (apartment sold out from under you, etc.) ~$5K each.
* eliminate need to move (if you stay in current place)
* eliminate $10K in closing costs if you reenter market 5 yrs from now.
TOTAL: potential savings $85K
Negatives:
* Market drops. But since you lose 30% of “gain” to cap gains and commission, impact is lessened.
* Pay maybe $3500/mo in monthly expenses instead of $2500/mo in rent.
* Current move, if any, will be lesiurely.
* No need to search for that perfect condo for 2 people, cat, dog, 2000 books.
TOTAL – extra $12K/yr in housing costs
Overall–
* Owning the place you live takes a lot of uncertainty out of life,
* Sounds like you have plenty of cash invested elsewhere, you could weather a 40% (only 25% after cap gains and comission) market drop without much trouble.
Just curious…
whybuywhenucanrent?
(or whysellwhenucanstayput?)
March 26th, 2007 at 8:45 am
I’m not so sure this boom will be surpassed in real terms in any of our lifetimes. Remember freako it took THIS boom to surpass the peak real value from the ’80s. This time around the spike is a lot bigger and I suspect (at least I sincerely hope) the lesson will be well and truly learned for most of those alive in Vancouver today.
March 25th, 2007 at 10:44 pm
well done, blueskies, very neat. Few will replicate that. And I agree with freako’s estimates re real and nominal outlook.
March 25th, 2007 at 8:49 pm
It is not impossible that you sold for a price that won’t be surpassed for a good 10 years nominally, or 20 or so in real terms.
list $529,900 sold $525,000
purchased preconstruction in Sept ‘01 at $242,000 with 5% down. Original investment in Yaletown was in ‘96 $15K down (refi cash out on our Calgary SFH). At one point in ‘04 we had 4 apts in YT/DT. When appreciation reached 100% we sold each one, paid our capital gains and banked the funds, laddered GIC’s in various fine Canadian banking establishments.. looking to the future with a bit of trepidation…. aging boomers
March 25th, 2007 at 8:28 pm
“the subjects on the sale of our YT condo have cleared, we are now homeless, landless peasants as such.”
It is not impossible that you sold for a price that won’t be surpassed for a good 10 years nominally, or 20 or so in real terms. You never know, but you might just have pulled that off. Me, I cleared out most of my investment property way too early.
March 25th, 2007 at 8:07 pm
blueskies:
Congratulations, clearly those books gave you wisdom.
March 25th, 2007 at 7:58 pm
well on more positive note:
the subjects on the sale of our YT condo have cleared, we are now homeless, landless peasants as such.
we have two months to find a place to rent, 1 dog 1 cat and 2000 books
we have safely extracted our butts from the Vancouver condo market, it has been quite a ride…..
March 25th, 2007 at 5:43 pm
This guy is a real card;
From the Florida Sun-Sentinel:
BOCA RATON – Retired Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, speaking at a Futures Industry Association annual conference here on Thursday, said the problems of the subprime mortgage market had more to do with home prices than easy credit.
“If we could wave a wand and housing prices go up 10 percent, the subprime mortgage problem would disappear,” he said.
Brilliant. Some of us thought easy credit is the culprit. Not so.
At least, one other member of the banking brethern is a little more forthcoming.
“Ex-Governor George says Bank deliberately fuelled consumer boom…
The Bank of England deliberately stoked the consumer boom that has led to record house prices and personal debt in order to avert a recession, the former Bank Governor Eddie George admitted yesterday.
…
“We knew that we were having to stimulate consumer spending. We knew we had pushed it up to levels which couldn’t possibly be sustained into the medium and long term. But for the time being, if we had not done that, the UK economy would have gone into recession just as the United States did.”
http://tinyurl.com/39abjg
But to be fair; he said his legacy is to “sort out” the problems he had caused.
These guys are a riot.
March 25th, 2007 at 3:57 pm
“Then the market turned — and for many homeowners, the escape hatch slammed shut.’
Can’t happen here,we are in La La Land where everything goes up forever and ever.
March 25th, 2007 at 3:47 pm
Don’t mudwrestle with a pig: One gets covered in mud, and the pig enjoys it.
March 25th, 2007 at 2:39 pm
OT Here is another one of those “heart rendering” stories about losing a fight against foreclosure. How long until VHB’s Oprah moment is here?
Also note the time it takes between NOD and auction. Most homes subject to NOD are NOT listed. Think of how many of these the clock is ticking on.
http://tinyurl.com/yor7va
March 25th, 2007 at 11:53 am
North Van,
The best way not pay for others dream wishes is not to buy or rent for the next couple of years.
Yep, we have talked it over and over, and we are moving to a co-op. We will start filling applications today. Market rate 2 bedroom units range from $750-$1000 (and seems utilities are included), depending on the area.
My money is not going to speculators. No way, no how.
March 25th, 2007 at 9:39 am
Agree with the famous “tick tock”.
I am wondering, once the shit hits the fan. How can I avoid paying for others dream wishes?
Certain stocks/investments that should be avoided?
Are there other dangers out there that people from previous booms have noticed, just to be warned and aware..
March 25th, 2007 at 9:17 am
It looks like there is at least one package of off-shore money planning to invest in Vancouver, ‘desperately’.
Is anybody struck by how amateur much of this money seems? (see ‘Amadeus’ link above in this category)
Would one classify it as ‘dumb’ or’smart’?
March 25th, 2007 at 8:02 am
whybuy:
I agree with your math.
Yes, it definitely did sell last year.
List price $2,680,000
Sell Price $2,475,000
March 25th, 2007 at 6:28 am
*Bubble’s experiment*
*Balloon bubble*
I have conducted a test to measure bubble and its side effects.
first i took one baloon! this balloon there was not overload air pressure.It was not even a big of size just like a size of cantaloupe.I press that hard but this balloon did not blast off.center of gravity transfer to half way to left and halfway to right.
I realize if there is not enough pressure of air that bubble is like no bubble because its original strength that keep things up up up.
*Bubble made of concrete.*
this second test I have conducted ,is type of concrete ball .this was size of football squeezing with both hands was a stupidity ,but I still tried to press hard. this ball did not blast off *** because that was very heavy so this ball fell over on ground. I have notice there was no effects over concrete ball but on earth.
So I realize if bubble is a type of concrete ball there won’t be enough damage.
I have heard off baby boomers too those are helping to drive price’s high but their quantity is not that much and as we are heading very close to 2010. these babies are slowley backing off till the middle of 2008.thats why there is still 8% yearly growth has been predicted earlier. thats mean when baby boomers are not there it is little help to decrease % but not that much lets say 25%-15%=10%.
*****So this beautiful girl is gaining momentum continously *****because center of gravity is very strong its made off concrete.*****
March 25th, 2007 at 1:11 am
And repairs and maintenance–$10-20K? Probably cost them $1K to have the windows washed and $1K for a general cleanup before putting it on the market… And at ten years old it’s probably needing a few patches here and there.
Anyway, these numbers just go to show that to even break even flipping mansions you need a 13% annual appreciation. To break even. And that’s in a market sector that has, what, 7% average appreciation, and is due for a big correction any year now?
March 25th, 2007 at 1:02 am
Rentah wrote:
>>>If you take into account carrying costs (about $100K thus far), agent fees, and any reno/maintenance, you’ll note that the 500K gets eaten up pretty quickly.< <<
Carrying costs are lots more:
* 6% interest on $2.5M is $150K/yr
* Taxes are $12K/yr
* Insurance 4K/yr???
That’s $166K/yr, or $125K/9 mos.
Plus closing costs–are closing costs proportional to the price of the place? Maybe $5K in closing costs, $10K?
And they know they’ll lose 5% ($125K – $150K depending on selling price) to those friendly RE agents. And how much is property transfer tax?
So if it sells in June for $2.5M, they’re out $176 in sunk costs + a $125K commission = $301K.
If it sells for $2.82M then they break even.
If it sells for the asking price of $3M then they clear a whopping $170K, which is pretty respectable, really, especially if it was owner occupied and they don’t need to pay capital gains tax.
We’ll see how they fare…
(BTW, Rentah, do you know it actually sold last summer, rather than expired?)
(And check out the tatami room–with TV set!)
March 24th, 2007 at 10:57 pm
Bearette: The 40year slave sentence could actually be a good thing.(although I don’t think it will materialize)
The bubble is bursting in the US, even with the subprime, and no doc ARMs.
What the 40yr, would do is guarantee that when this thing finally blows up in the speculators faces, there wont’ be a soul left in the entire country to buy the little boxes from them.
It will also help insure that those who rely on the “mortgage helper” to make the mortgage payment will not have the tenants, because they will have all bought with nothing down.
Lot s of overcapacity in construction, and a lot of inventory, very few buyers left.
Tick Tock, Tick Tock
March 24th, 2007 at 9:56 pm
rentah,
After watching the news tonite and seeing all the greedy bastards barge their way in trying to buy up the Walley ghetto project I have no doubt now this is going to end in a very very ugly manner.
Always a bad sign when they line up to panic buy anything,look out below,way below.
March 24th, 2007 at 7:25 pm
Lick o’ Paint: $500,000
File under ‘Superficially ballsy but potentially disasterous flips’:
This house in Point Grey sold in June 2006 for $2,475,000 and is now back on the market for $2,980,000.
V636625
I wonder if this was an intentional flip, or buyers remorse?
The house has been painted.
If you take into account carrying costs (about $100K thus far), agent fees, and any reno/maintenance, you’ll note that the 500K gets eaten up pretty quickly.
If the market stalls, this trade could be underwater very quickly.