Wow. Not only did February see a stop to the dropping benchmark price, it leaped back up to a new peak featuring the number of the beast: $666,983
I haven’t seen stats for apartments and townhomes yet, but I’ll add those graphs when they’re available.
Update: here they are, craziness in every sector. Buy now before everyone is priced out forever.
Stats are from agentwill, he’ll email you the full stats, but I just grabbed the February benchmark numbers from his post at Realestatetalks.
It is very very very important to understand that any "TOP" is very difficult to pin-point as time rolls on. It is always many months after the "top" has formed and the declining trend has set in that one can say with any clarity. In any case, a top usually takes a few months to form. In the meantime, prices will bounce up and down with volatility.If anyone can pinpoint the top with clarity and confidence, then he/she will be a trillionaire many times over!There are only vague signposts with emphasis on "vague"!!!
thevanman said:"We've got to lay more fiber optics cable!! because of perceived mega demand which we now know never did materialize!Sure but now we've had an explosion in communication since everyone is selling bandwidth for cheap. Real goods built on crap money… I'm hoping to take the same advantage on RE.
littlemanrenter-Something will, most likely, signal a turning point. But I don't think this will be obvious until after the crash. For example, the stock market drop of a few days ago could have marked the turning point, but only if it was followed by a big drop in RE prices.
Pretty much. For exampleFill gas tank, gas spills over, limit reached…At a poker table, keep going all in, winnning, when do you stop?
littlemanrenter: just to clarify – Do you mean what would we have to see to convince us that a top is in place?
I'm not that smart, but I don't think you really answered the question… what is the sign/evidence/annoucement that will convince a bear. Nevermind if it will ever happen, but what is it?
Littlerenterman said:Prices continue to go up… and up…. and up. Surely, you must agree that there must be a limit. I say:While prices can continue to go up, so will inventory too to counteract the price increase for a moment,thus inciting this self-reinforcing inventory cycle — price up, inventory up, then price up again! Remember, builders are "sellers". Price deflation starts when there's excessive inventory chasing too few buyers. That's what happened to Japan right now. Too many inefficient companies and banks producing too many liquidity and products chasing too few buyers while seeking better returns, thus creating this so called Japanese Carry Trade. 0.5% interest on 1 million dollars returns you a measly $5000. How can you live with $5000 in Canada, let alone in Japan?? Ofcourse, the fix is not easy because what caused excess production also cause… Read more »
I certainly got the sense that the market made an uptick in January and February. All the units in our townhouse complex suddenly sold within a period of 2 weeks. Now, there's nothing available for sale.People are certainly under the illusion that by upgrading (selling a principal resident that has increased in value to buy a more expensive unit), they are making money. Oh, what a rude awakening they will feel!
That’s the beauty of a running bull. It plows ahead beyond any reason driven by a tsunami of emotions . . . until it hits an iron wall and all hell breaks loose.
kitkatkorner,w'sho name fo' real? is u d o double g hissef? u drop some real T Nugs on us dude!
Rennie doesn't invest in real estate, but Jurock does.. Didn't I read that he was putting his Vancouver house up for sale?
Heard it here first – via Sportsnet? CTV, Canada.com, CKNW – nothing…Olympic Flag stolenhttp://tinyurl.com/2cczsgI'm no fan of thievery – be it paying less than $400K for 400 square feet or not, but thats a pretty impressive feat… would think the clock is a sitting target even more so… 24 security or not and as long as no one is hurt, I am all for action that brings attention to the obvious inequality between the pro-Olympic riches and the turn our head away from lower econ class (DTES)
kitkat korner: Thanks for bringing your special 'touch of class' to the discussion. Just a tip: you may find trolling more effective with proper grammar.Why are you wasting your time here anyways? Shouldn't you be out snapping up pre-sales before we run out of sky and concrete?
DuckRennie doesn't invest in real-estate, he just sells it, he makes money no matter what happens, he just makes less if things aren't selling briskly.rentahYeah that's what I meant by "essentially", I should have been more specific. But whether that money is real or not and even if a relatively small portion of that 200 billion is being used by "House rich/cash poor" people to buy their Bentleys luxury getaways and "investment properties" it still means a huge economic hit.Anyone know what the GDP of Greater Vancouver is?
wow. thats pretty sophisticated commentary kitkat. thank you so much for sharing your insightful analysis.
is it gonna crash ..crash and burn and anarchy and Armageddon etc etc. …u whiners r dumbass mofos 🙂
The Pope,This site post the full stats for GVRD as soon as it releases http://www.relocationbc.com/statistics-vancouver…. Can you keep the link somewhere on your site?
drachen: If values drop by as much as 50% that's 200 BILLION dollars essentially removed from the local economy… What does that do to a region?It's not exactly correct to say that 'that's 200 BILLION dollars essentially removed from the local economy' as the money was mostly only there lying dormant in unrealized paper gains: more precisely, it's 200 Billion dollars of IMAGINED WEALTH removed from the local economic landscape. What is removed is the activity that was the direct result of the paper gains (the wealth effect): the greatly increased discretionary spending, the buying of cottages/boats/luxury items, the loans to family, the early retirement based on paper RE wealth, etc, etc.The results will still be spectacular.
hey i told u so!wasn't the guy that said to shutup and put that $5 latte down, move out of mommy's basement and grow some balls and buy something already?no u all pay for being fools(heh heh heh in evil voice)
Since apparently everyone is watching the tape so closely, Gentle Ben will speaking about the mortgage market at 2:00 EDT. I am sure he will assuage any fears and the S&P will rally 12 points by the close and Vancouver real estate will be limit up by 4:40 pm.Make sure you hit a bid before non-farm payrolls on Friday though, cause its all gonna go pear shaped by then.
Will you receive a nice glossy pamphet from Bob Rennie saying thats it?Has Bob Rennie "left the building" yet? Is he putting any new money into Vancouver RE?
Ok this is a bit off topic, I'm answering my own question from a few threads back, someone please tell me if my math is out to lunch.There are approximately 2 million people in GVRD. Home prices are approximately 500k on average. I couldn't find the stat but I believe it's 2.5 people per household. That means that residential real-estate in GVRD is currently valued at 400 billion dollars? If values drop by as much as 50% that's 200 BILLION dollars essentially removed from the local economy… What does that do to a region?Of course I don't know how many people rent and how to calculate the value of rental suites or vacant properties but even if you give me a 25% margin of error that's still an enormous amount of money…
ReductiMat: I expect that the subprime market in the states will shut down completely. I do not think that this (on its own) will have an effect on the Canadian mortgage market. If, however, the U.S. goes spiralling into a recession as a result of this, then our economy will suffer, and as a result, defaults will rise and trigger an increase in risk aversion in Canada as well. In my previous post I was just pointing out that the Canadian subprime market is not as toxic as it is in the U.S.
While Canada may not have the rampant sub prime mortgages like the US… I give much more credence to the yen carry trade which is talked about on this CNN article today…Given Vancouver's relationship with Pac-Rim, and I've heard this mentioned from other posters – borrow cheap in Yen, buy here, enjoy appreciation etc…http://tinyurl.com/34y3nmNow apart from that, I've posted this question on RET and I am curious for a half-decent response -Prices continue to go up… and up…. and up. Surely, you must agree that there must be a limit. Forget about trying to say its yesterday, today, or tomorrow… just that at some point, its too high. Be it in 5 years, 10 years, the amount is 1 million, 1 billion… whatever. What does it take to convince you that a limit has been reached? Will you turn on… Read more »
Greenspan is yapping it up about a recession again today too,talk about undermining Bernake.He must be bored in his retirement or maybe he has a big short position ? LOL