the article deals with the assertion of a real estate market collapse resulting from the sudden exit of retiring boomers.excellent point. from the article:"The bust theory says people sell their homes and move into a nursing facility at age 65."the 'bust theory' (is there only one?) supposedly refers to demographics as a first cause, which few here would agree with.And no one ever claimed that 65 yr-olds immediately sell & check into a rest home. It's a ridiculous 'straw man' argument. It's a pumper piece, nothing more.

2 things about that story you just gotta love;"As well, the biggest influence on housing prices is real incomes, not demographics"FirstA great argument for stability in housing prices… EXCEPT that it hasn't been true for the last 5 years. And if you take this tidbit of information with a grain of sense between your ears it should be telling you that housing prices must return to pre-bubble normal precisely because there's no upwards trend in incomes.The second thing I love about this article is it's so sycophantic that the author refused to put his name on it. When was the last time a REAL journalist refused to take credit for a story that he felt he'd done a good job on?In fact the lack of a byline often just means that the newspaper just cut and pasted a bit of… Read more »

Bloomberg: Subprime Bondholders May Lose $75 Billion in U.S. Housing Slumphttp://tinyurl.com/yt6o4c More pain to come.

The mortgage deposit change is marginal: it makes for a 2500 dollars a year difference on a 250k mortgage. From what people in the mortgage industry have reported, few FTBs have anywhere near 20% saved.

Vancouver Sun story…Mortgage insurance changes will help buyers…Ottawa is reducing the cost of home buying by raising the threshold for compulsory mortgage insurance.An amendment to the Bank Act allows borrowers to access conventional financing with a 20-per-cent down payment.In addition to insurance savings, the change will make it easier to obtain a bigger mortgage.“This will have a big impact on our lenders in providing more flexible guidelines for financing up to 80 per cent,” Regan-Pollock said. “In the past lenders were required to follow more stringent guidelines set by high-ratio mortgage insurers for financing above 75 per cent.”

"I used to think this until yesterday. I struck up a conversation with a builder with I think about 5-6 years experience (you see where this is going). "I agree that many builders seem oblivious to downside. But I was referring to the U.S. I didn't mean to suggest that they know what will happen in the future. What I meant was that once they are in doodoo, they know that they are in doodoo and are open to cutting margins to move inventory. Unlike hereto stubborn sellers who want x amount of money because a house sold for that amount in May 2006 or because they want to cover their costs plus y percent.

I wouldn't buy a Queensborough townhouse for half of what they're asking, if at all. If they're lucky, the Fraser River will free them from their bad investments.LOL. I drove by there on the weekend, still can't believe that people are buying those townhouses within spitting distance of the highway. Plunked down in an industrial park, with pollution galore (autos and nearby plants) and bridge-bottleneck traffic right outside their driveway. I wouldn't live there for free.

Keep in mind that American builders are hiding price declines with incentives, including cash back. They are doing anything to protect the prices in their subdivisions and not have to deal with angry underwater customers from previous months.Auctions in places like Florida have shown price declines of 40%. In the rust belt, they are practically giving houses but nobody is buying.My prediction is simply a YOY price decrease for the Lower Mainland later this year. Nothing dramatic yet. That's for next year.I'm keeping my eye on the Queensborough townhouses. Too many built at way too high prices (400K plus), and now they are flooding that small market. New and almost new are competing against each, and we will see some serious price declines there. Already, some asking prices have dropping by tens of thousands. I wouldn't buy a Queensborough townhouse… Read more »

I don't think the market will tank this year. It might even rise 10% or more this year. I think sales will slow. Inventory will rise by Christmas, to 15K or 20K, but prices won't tank. In the US, home prices, even in the most vulnerable areas, are only down 10-20% overall since the peak. In Vancouver, parts of the market will sag more than others–sardine-housing in Langley, maybe some of the East Side condos. This is if the housing stock has gone up faster than rate of new household formation. Other areas will stay strong. Single family homes, downtown condos. Why? The expectation of Vancouver's increased prominance as a world-class city. The continued inflow of exotic $–money earned elsewhere. Possible decline in the Loonie to Asian and European currencies. All of those are more likely than a mass exit… Read more »

I find it highly amusing that his first instinct is to blame it on the building. Freudian slip of the first magnitude! good catch!

That $4000 rental has a for sale sign in front and they are looking for longterm tenants. You'll have realwhores and lookee-loos wandering through the house while you're trying to eat dinner or put your kids to bed. What a deal!!!My parents rented a house on Dunbar in the late 60s for about $150 a month. They subletted(?) a bedroom to a friend to cut down on costs.

On the topic of bailouts, I like this quote from the San Francisco Examiner (hat tip Ben Jones)"Dumb: Buying a house you can't afford with no down payment and a loan whose monthly payments will explode in a few years. Dumber: Lending money to people who can't afford a traditional mortgage, especially when they have lousy credit ratings and don't substantiate their income. Dumbest: Bailing out dumb and dumber, especially with taxpayer money. "

I wonder whether RE agents are buying or selling at this stage in the cycle? OOPS, I forgot, there are no more cycles, only upwards movement in prices, or at worst "price stabilization".When we sold our condo unit, it was to a realtor. He was busy buying several units in our building. Each time he would buy one, he would pay a higher price.This had the effect of increasing the value of all of the previous units that he had bought, as each unit is valued in relation to recent sales history.With the higher values, his "equity" would increase in relation to the mortgages, allowing further borrowing to purchase more units at higher prices. Thus, an asset bubble, funded with debt.