Comments on: friday free for all! http://vancouvercondo.info/2007/04/friday-free-for-all_20.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=friday-free-for-all_20 Bubble? What Bubble? Wed, 23 May 2012 15:23:50 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.2 By: beta http://vancouvercondo.info/2007/04/friday-free-for-all_20.html#comment-3669 beta Tue, 24 Apr 2007 21:57:00 +0000 http://vancouvercondo.info/?p=241#comment-3669 <i>the article deals with the assertion of a real estate market collapse resulting from the sudden exit of retiring boomers.</i>excellent point. from the article:"The bust theory says people sell their homes and move into a nursing facility at age 65."the 'bust theory' (is there only one?) supposedly refers to demographics as a first cause, which few here would agree with.And no one ever claimed that 65 yr-olds immediately sell & check into a rest home. It's a ridiculous 'straw man' argument. It's a pumper piece, nothing more. <p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-3669">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> the article deals with the assertion of a real estate market collapse resulting from the sudden exit of retiring boomers.excellent point. from the article:"The bust theory says people sell their homes and move into a nursing facility at age 65."the 'bust theory' (is there only one?) supposedly refers to demographics as a first cause, which few here would agree with.And no one ever claimed that 65 yr-olds immediately sell & check into a rest home. It's a ridiculous 'straw man' argument. It's a pumper piece, nothing more.

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]]> By: Akhen http://vancouvercondo.info/2007/04/friday-free-for-all_20.html#comment-3668 Akhen Tue, 24 Apr 2007 14:30:00 +0000 http://vancouvercondo.info/?p=241#comment-3668 Wow, Benjamin Tal said that ... better go out and buy as real estate prices can only go UP from here. NOT!Read his report and the article carefully. Note that rates are average and of course averages always factor in the business cycle.Further, the article deals with the assertion of a real estate market collapse resulting from the sudden exit of retiring boomers. NOT the top of any secular bull. ahkenaten <p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-3668">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> Wow, Benjamin Tal said that … better go out and buy as real estate prices can only go UP from here. NOT!Read his report and the article carefully. Note that rates are average and of course averages always factor in the business cycle.Further, the article deals with the assertion of a real estate market collapse resulting from the sudden exit of retiring boomers. NOT the top of any secular bull. ahkenaten

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]]> By: Drachen http://vancouvercondo.info/2007/04/friday-free-for-all_20.html#comment-3667 Drachen Tue, 24 Apr 2007 14:25:00 +0000 http://vancouvercondo.info/?p=241#comment-3667 2 things about that story you just gotta love;"As well, the biggest influence on housing prices is real incomes, not demographics"FirstA great argument for stability in housing prices... EXCEPT that it hasn't been true for the last 5 years. And if you take this tidbit of information with a grain of sense between your ears it should be telling you that housing prices must return to pre-bubble normal precisely because there's no upwards trend in incomes.The second thing I love about this article is it's so sycophantic that the author refused to put his name on it. When was the last time a REAL journalist refused to take credit for a story that he felt he'd done a good job on?In fact the lack of a byline often just means that the newspaper just cut and pasted a bit of corporate propaganda off their press release page. <p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-3667">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> 2 things about that story you just gotta love;"As well, the biggest influence on housing prices is real incomes, not demographics"FirstA great argument for stability in housing prices… EXCEPT that it hasn't been true for the last 5 years. And if you take this tidbit of information with a grain of sense between your ears it should be telling you that housing prices must return to pre-bubble normal precisely because there's no upwards trend in incomes.The second thing I love about this article is it's so sycophantic that the author refused to put his name on it. When was the last time a REAL journalist refused to take credit for a story that he felt he'd done a good job on?In fact the lack of a byline often just means that the newspaper just cut and pasted a bit of corporate propaganda off their press release page.

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]]> By: M- http://vancouvercondo.info/2007/04/friday-free-for-all_20.html#comment-3666 M- Tue, 24 Apr 2007 11:40:00 +0000 http://vancouvercondo.info/?p=241#comment-3666 The Vancouver Sun sets up a straw-man and knocks it down:<i>Real estate collapse not looming, after all.The bust theory says people sell their homes and move into a nursing facility at age 65. The opposite is true</i><a href="http://tinyurl.com/ytnbby" rel="nofollow">http://tinyurl.com/ytnbby</a> <p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-3666">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> The Vancouver Sun sets up a straw-man and knocks it down:Real estate collapse not looming, after all.The bust theory says people sell their homes and move into a nursing facility at age 65. The opposite is truehttp://tinyurl.com/ytnbby

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]]> By: beta http://vancouvercondo.info/2007/04/friday-free-for-all_20.html#comment-3665 beta Tue, 24 Apr 2007 02:15:00 +0000 http://vancouvercondo.info/?p=241#comment-3665 Bloomberg: Subprime Bondholders May Lose $75 Billion in U.S. Housing Slumphttp://tinyurl.com/yt6o4c More pain to come. <p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-3665">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> Bloomberg: Subprime Bondholders May Lose $75 Billion in U.S. Housing Slumphttp://tinyurl.com/yt6o4c More pain to come.

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]]> By: -\/- http://vancouvercondo.info/2007/04/friday-free-for-all_20.html#comment-3664 -\/- Mon, 23 Apr 2007 23:13:00 +0000 http://vancouvercondo.info/?p=241#comment-3664 Yes, it's a small change given current prices. It can only lead those who have the deposit to leverage even more.....devastating for personal finances, but then again people tend to like it. <p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-3664">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> Yes, it's a small change given current prices. It can only lead those who have the deposit to leverage even more…..devastating for personal finances, but then again people tend to like it.

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]]> By: beta http://vancouvercondo.info/2007/04/friday-free-for-all_20.html#comment-3663 beta Mon, 23 Apr 2007 22:27:00 +0000 http://vancouvercondo.info/?p=241#comment-3663 <i>The mortgage deposit change is marginal: it makes for a 2500 dollars a year difference on a 250k mortgage. </i>From what people in the mortgage industry have reported, few FTBs have anywhere near 20% saved. <p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-3663">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> The mortgage deposit change is marginal: it makes for a 2500 dollars a year difference on a 250k mortgage. From what people in the mortgage industry have reported, few FTBs have anywhere near 20% saved.

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]]> By: -\/- http://vancouvercondo.info/2007/04/friday-free-for-all_20.html#comment-3662 -\/- Mon, 23 Apr 2007 20:28:00 +0000 http://vancouvercondo.info/?p=241#comment-3662 The mortgage deposit change is marginal: it makes for a 2500 dollars a year difference on a 250k mortgage. Price have gone up by 30k a year in that price range....so, all it can do is increase the leverage a bit, which will only amplify the crash when it comes. <p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-3662">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> The mortgage deposit change is marginal: it makes for a 2500 dollars a year difference on a 250k mortgage. Price have gone up by 30k a year in that price range….so, all it can do is increase the leverage a bit, which will only amplify the crash when it comes.

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]]> By: bcubbins http://vancouvercondo.info/2007/04/friday-free-for-all_20.html#comment-3661 bcubbins Mon, 23 Apr 2007 19:54:00 +0000 http://vancouvercondo.info/?p=241#comment-3661 Vancouver Sun story...<a href="http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/story.html?id=b4979de3-74f8-4926-a8b7-dafd19b88626&k=39908" rel="nofollow">Mortgage insurance changes will help buyers</a>...<i>Ottawa is reducing the cost of home buying by raising the threshold for compulsory mortgage insurance.An amendment to the Bank Act allows borrowers to access conventional financing with a 20-per-cent down payment.</i><i>In addition to insurance savings, the change will make it easier to obtain a bigger mortgage.“This will have a big impact on our lenders in providing more flexible guidelines for financing up to 80 per cent,” Regan-Pollock said. “In the past lenders were required to follow more stringent guidelines set by high-ratio mortgage insurers for financing above 75 per cent.”</i> <p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-3661">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> Vancouver Sun story…Mortgage insurance changes will help buyers…Ottawa is reducing the cost of home buying by raising the threshold for compulsory mortgage insurance.An amendment to the Bank Act allows borrowers to access conventional financing with a 20-per-cent down payment.In addition to insurance savings, the change will make it easier to obtain a bigger mortgage.“This will have a big impact on our lenders in providing more flexible guidelines for financing up to 80 per cent,” Regan-Pollock said. “In the past lenders were required to follow more stringent guidelines set by high-ratio mortgage insurers for financing above 75 per cent.”

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]]> By: patriotz http://vancouvercondo.info/2007/04/friday-free-for-all_20.html#comment-3660 patriotz Mon, 23 Apr 2007 19:11:00 +0000 http://vancouvercondo.info/?p=241#comment-3660 <i>In Vancouver, parts of the market will sag more than others...This is if the housing stock has gone up faster than rate of new household formation.</i>What do you mean "if"? It most certainly has. Never in living history has the housing stock been growing so much faster than households.<i>Other areas will stay strong. Single family homes, downtown condos.</i>Didn't happen in 1981. All of GVRD went down 45% give or take. Didn't happen in late 1990's either. So why is it different this time?Hint: food chain. <p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-3660">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> In Vancouver, parts of the market will sag more than others…This is if the housing stock has gone up faster than rate of new household formation.What do you mean "if"? It most certainly has. Never in living history has the housing stock been growing so much faster than households.Other areas will stay strong. Single family homes, downtown condos.Didn't happen in 1981. All of GVRD went down 45% give or take. Didn't happen in late 1990's either. So why is it different this time?Hint: food chain.

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