US housing market as a rollercoaster

Spark posted this link in an earlier thread. If you havent seen this yet its worth watching: the US housing market from 1890 to the present rendered as a rollercoaster ride. You really get a visceral feel from the peaks and dips.


This video was created by the fine folks at speculativebubble.com

.. so who wants to make one of these for the GVRD? I bet the 1980-82 section would be particularly exciting.

19 Comments
newest
oldest most voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Freako
Freako
13 years ago

"I've always believed the downtown condo market would be the first to pop, but considering inventory has again fallen to a 6-month low I may have to reassess that."If things behave in a linear fashion you may have to reassess. But there is more than meets the eye when it comes to inventory and pricing. Being speculators market, demand can become supply in a heartbeat. Second, this supply will be weak hands in terms of hanging on. Therefore, downtown may or may not cave crack first, but it will likely be first to reach the intermediate milestons such as double digit peak to trough decline.The first "cracks" could appear anywhere. I already consider price compression a crack (caused by fundamentals, not psychology). FTB and lower end tradeup is not up against a fundamentals wall just yet. Investor owned condos may… Read more »

MillionPitfall
MillionPitfall
13 years ago

Rentah,I see your point, but it is actually all the little guys supporting all the sales in the housing market right now, not the million dollar plus buyers. If lower priced properties continue to sell and increase in price and higher priced million dollar properties stagnate in sales because no one can qualify for mortgages that large, this type of situation creates a collision course too.Unless there is a glut of condos on the market and people bail out of assignments, then things can possibily give way at the bottom first. I guess that depends on how many speculators are in the market at that price point. One thing to consider, if the lower end gives way in price, the bottom feeders will be out buying too. If the 2 million dollar home is falling in price, where do the… Read more »

tulip-Mania2
tulip-Mania2
13 years ago

None of which is likely to dampen lenders' creativity. In a report issued last year, CIBC economist Benjamin Tal noted that non-traditional mortgages are growing by 50% a year.We don't have sub prime lending in Canada, we call it something else.Tick Tock, Tick Tock

Akhen
Akhen
13 years ago

Not unusual for the million $ market to be slow. Will likely to be so for a while. Once you past the 750K mark, the market tends to be slower but steadier.Problem is that a lot of these houses being priced past the 750K mark would in substance not really worth the value, but priced at that level due to the speculative rise. The burst will be seen in the condo market first. Once this areas dips, that'll will be the beginning of the end of this upturn.Ahkenaten

chip
chip
13 years ago

I've always believed the downtown condo market would be the first to pop, but considering inventory has again fallen to a 6-month low I may have to reassess that.The 46% jump in inventory for the Fraser Valley is interesting. The burbs could be the place to watch this spring and summer.

bcubbins
bcubbins
13 years ago

The URL worked fine for me. Just doubleclick or drag to select it, then copy and paste into address bar.

digi
digi
13 years ago

If you're interested you can also make clickable links by following the tips here.Here's a clickable version of MK-Kids zero down mortgages link.

Drachen
Drachen
13 years ago

mk kidsThe URL you posted got cut off, try http://www.tinyurl.com to convert it into something that you can cut and paste here.

Prairieboy
Prairieboy
13 years ago

For interest's sake, number of properties priced over $1 million on MLS for Victoria today is 187.Not bad for this sleepy little town.

mk-kids
mk-kids
13 years ago

OT – an article o the no-money down mortgage and what a bad idea it is…http://spring.finance.sympatico.msn.ca/specialreport/articledf.aspx?cp-documentid=4595487

blueskies
blueskies
13 years ago

saw the movie…I laughed…I cried…didn't try the Kool-Aidor buy the T-shirt… great popcorn though!

mold
mold
13 years ago

swirlyman: I think thats because its a rollercoaster – they go slower when they go uphill and faster downhill.If it ran at a constant rate it wouldn't emulate what a roller coaster does.

Swirlyman
Swirlyman
13 years ago

To be fair, the simulation should run at a constant rate in terms of years per second. It slows down considerably over the last 10 years to emphasize the recent run-up.

rentah
rentah
13 years ago

million:Thanks for the inventory summary.

rentah
rentah
13 years ago

million:I'm also watching the million+ homes, but I expect the slide to begin in the suburbs and in the downtown condo market.The million dollar plus homes are:1. in relatively strong hands (except for the few which are dedicated developer/flips).2. a very small market, so it's only taking a small handful of crazed buyers to keep that ball in the air.3. not showing much in the way of inventory increases. Some sfh westside markets are still low inventory.They'll come down eventually, but they won't start the cascade this time round.

MillionPitfall
MillionPitfall
13 years ago

Number of properties priced over 1 million on MLS. (includes condos, townhouses, single family homes and vacant land)Burnaby 74Coquitlam 49Ladner 18Maple Ridge 34North Van 59New West 5Port Coquitlam 5Pitt Meadows 10Port Moody 30Tsawwassen 15Richmond 130Van East 15Van West 481West Van 262Abbotsford 72Cloverdale 33Langley 151Mission 15N. Delta 1N. Surrey 28Surrey 48White Rock/South Surrey 158Quite the inventory piling up. Even if 13 of these million dollar plus babies sold per day, it would still take over 4 months to clear out the current inventory levels.

digi
digi
13 years ago

Wow. It sure would suck to buy at the top of one of those peaks and have to sell at the bottom. What a sinking feeling.

MillionPitfall
MillionPitfall
13 years ago

One should do up a rollercoaster graph for all million dollar plus homes piling up on MLS. A lot of these homes have been sitting on the market since last year or early this year unsold. Remember when 30 very expensive homes in southern California came sliding down the hillside due to heavy rains? Maybe, these homes will be sliding down the hill due to heavy prices. I created this handle Million Pit Fall, as I still believe that this is where the slide will begin. A few rocks are starting to give way, price reductions of 150k to 400k now.

the pope
the pope
13 years ago

Wheeeee!