Who do you propose should subsidize your entitlement?

Let’s say you can afford $600/mo for rent and your idea of “reasonable accomodation” is $900/mo. Who pays the $300 different… government? landlord?

Or let’s say you feel entitled to not only live in “reasonable accomodation,” but OWN it. Who should pick up the difference between the $600/mo mortgage payment you can afford and the $900/mo payment necessary to service the purchase loan?

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We can speculate about what prices ought to be based on comparative criteria x,y, and z. In the end, it is set by supply and demand.

As always, the problem with RE demand is that it contains more than just demand for housing. If it didn’t, rents would follow. It contains expectations about the future so greed and fear have an impact.

TOdays prices may seem stupid, but they are what they are. There are negative externalities imposed upon those non-owners who want to live here. Nothing they can do about it unfortunately, except rail against it.

In the longer run, it is impossible for a city to price itself out of the market. That is just a function of an imperfect market based on unrealistic expectations.

Having said that, we are growing, though not as fast as we used to. Real prices will continue to rise over time, and the vast majority WILL be priced out of SFH in Vancouver proper. They will have to go to townhome or move further out. And that is just the way it is. Remember, 100 years ago, the West End was all SFH. I don’t know exactly what went down, but I wouldn’t doubt that some West End resident lamented the affordability situation.

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Lets compare Ancaster, Ontario to Langley, BC..PLEASE!!

Prices? yes they are out of whack because prices in the lower mainland are ridiculously high. Hamilton’s prices are not. You are not paying for mountain views in Langley (although they are nice). You are paying for proximity to Vancouver, the P. Ocean, the C. Mountains etc. Things that apparently cause prices to rise uncontrollably along with the Olympics. But only since 2001. I guess no one noticed the mountains before then.

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Yes, I know it is trendy and maybe even eco-friendly to live downtown, but it seems that most people who think no farther then the downtown aren’t from the GVRD originally. Those are who are from the GVRD are willing to live in other neighbourhoods (which are equally unaffordable, but larger). If you want to raise a family in Vancouver, ask the average Lower Mainlander where they grew up. Most will say North Van, Burnaby or Richmond. A few will say the Eastside or Westside of Vancouver, and I only know one person who grew up in the west end. He moved out of there as soon as he left home.

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So someone who called the dot.com a bubble in ’97 would be wrong in ’99? We all know how that turned out.

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The argument was that prices were out of line with fundamentals. That argument is indeed even stronger today. Affordability is worse. Price/rent multiple is higher.

The argument was not that prices would fall imminently. It was that the market would return to fundamentals. In that sense, the market’s stubborness does not make it a “wrong argument”.

“When reality mismatches your model, it’s wise to pay attention to the existence proof… “

Reality? Are you suggesting that the fundamentals modeled by VHB were not real? Au contraire, the inputs to the model are just fine. The outputs haven’t been to date. That is a very temporary mismatch, unless you are going to go down the “paradigm shift” road.

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Being wrong for two years doesn’t demonstrate a valid argument, it demonstrates a wrong argument.

When reality mismatches your model, it’s wise to pay attention to the existence proof…

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It doesn’t “rage” at all. Comparing an area of 23 sq. miles that includes Central Park(!) to 1 sq. mile of carefully-chosen Vancouver is self-serving curve fitting of the finest order.

Taking Manhattan neighborhoods of the same size as the West End delivers at least a dozen neighborhoods where density is more than 5 times that of the West End. The peak is probably 10x – a full order of magnitude.

And that’s just Manhattan – same is found in Queens and the Bronx.

Rinse, lather and repeat for a handful of other US cities.

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Non illigitamus carborundum.

And I agree with what you say – the bust is coming, don’t know when, but it’s in the mail.

Tick Tock, for sure.

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“There’s a whole world of fugly going on here. This attitude, sadly, represents the ‘spirit’ of Vancouver.”

I don’t know how to say as nicely as you so I said it a nasty way:

“I am somewhat disturbed by the expressed opinions of some of the lesser minds on this blog who seem to think their syllogisms are worth of some praise as if they were propped by some truly solid and irrefutable economic law.”

And thanks for the words of encouragement, I won’t let the Bastards grind me down.

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drachen: that is kind of rare bird for a realtor. Usually they’d just ride the hype and go for another commission.

Good to hear.

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There’s a whole world of fugly going on here. This attitude, sadly, represents the ‘spirit’ of Vancouver.

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It would take a lot more than pot for that to happen.

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Personally, I don’t care what satv is, or what it will ever be.

It’s worthy of scrolling past. Nothing to see there.

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Some agents still have their honour.

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I wouldn’t expect a whore to tell me she has the clap.

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Satv, are you a fortune teller or just a shill?

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Sometime me thinked you Rob.

But sometime I think not and maybe yes for sure some others time.

One thing for certain, you smart like he.

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I am totaly agree with chipman.and same words I through on VHB on his last post.
that posting of vhb title
“who is next”
I answer to vhb “sir you are next”
and he packed his suite case since then.

if no body beleive me you can go back to this title called “who is next”

he was wasting his time and he also hold lots of bullish back from being buyers those same b’s are having hard time understanding true effects.

JUNE SALES ARE UP
JUNE PRICES ARE UP

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Wrong about what? VHB never called a market top. His claim was that RE prices were unjustified by fundamentals, and that claim is even stronger today than 2 years ago. And history tells us that prices unsupported by fundamentals always correct eventually.

Oh and Rob, if a lot of people lose their shirts in RE over the next few years, are you going to blame yourself? I’m waiting for it.

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VHB’s blog was great, but deep and relevant it wasn’t, at least not if you’re interested in making money in real estate. To date (and I say this with much respect) he has been wrong. He was insightful, he had great data, and he had great arguments. While he blogged about how unsustainable this market is (influencing many to play it safe, no doubt) many people made a lot of money in real estate. I don’t think anyone can seriously disagree with that statement (but I’m sure someone will).

Yeah, if you want to make money in RE, you need to listen to a guy whose sophistication is limited to “markets always change”.

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See you in Ottawa. I’ll be sitting in the living room of my SFH and watching the snow come down.

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By family, I do mean two adults with children in EACH family. It sound absurd, but if people insist on living in Vancouver, that’s what they do. I’ve known a family sharing a three bedroom basement with another family and a single person. Granted, that was temporary arrangement, while they look for a self-contained basement suite. They later moved into a two bedroom no living room (i.e. small kitchen) ground floor place.

Not to such an extreme, but the Univercity development on SFU campus features condos that have self-contained mortgage helpers. It’s designed for “young, professional families starting out”.

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