Here’s your open topic post for Friday June 1st:
- REBGV sales stats for May 2007 available soon.
- Olympic size taxpayer subsidies for developers.
- Loonie and mortgage rates going up.
- Business council of BC economic outlook (pdf).
- Flipping the truth.
What are you seeing out there on the streets and sidewalks of Vancouver? Post your news, links, rants & anectdotes here!
Here’s your open-topic free-for-all post for friday May 4th.
-Canadian construction slowing.
-Where are the nice condos?
-Vancouver’s still cheap to saudi royalty.
-New condos don’t need parking?
-18,000 grow-ops suspected in BC.
What are you seeing out there? Post your news, links and anectdotes here!
May 8th, 2007 at 8:46 am
No mention of prices, but from the CBC site,a BMO analyst is willing to concede that the "underlying trend in housing starts is starting to grind lower." Starts since Jan have been alternating up and down over the previous month.
May 7th, 2007 at 9:40 am
Is anyone NOT baffled by satv?
May 7th, 2007 at 8:41 am
Is anyone else baffled by satv?
May 7th, 2007 at 7:44 am
Yeah, c'mon guys – Vancouver real estate has never and will never go down in value. It's the investment that can never lose – like the Canucks. The Canucks will never be beat by another team and Vancouver real estate will never drop. Go Vancouver!
May 6th, 2007 at 9:30 pm
EARTH (land)worth more than STARS**********STARS IN THE SKY Stars always shine no matter what,star in the sky are priceless and very hard to get over there.******MOVIE STARS are also very expensive but only for director.not for public all people pay same amount to watch their movie's.But it is very hard to see them and be close to them.EARTH(LAND)is only close to genral public,the only part of nature people can own,use,and live on it.develop according to our need make land more worth living than the stars and movie stars.Thats why it is always up up up5 year ratio for west vanattached 90.5detached 90.8Apartments 126.5MORE TO COME
May 6th, 2007 at 5:32 pm
tulip: I sympathize: the Shakespearian wheel 'turning', and somehow everybody getting their just desserts, would be great.Alas…
May 6th, 2007 at 2:14 pm
Rentah: I know you are right. Somehow I can't help hoping for moral justice.(I should have taken Chemistry instead of Phil, during those early formative years)
May 6th, 2007 at 1:55 pm
tulip:Alternatively, rather than Lereah being held accountable (which would be sweet), it's far more likely that he'll just fade away unpunished, or perhaps even be feted as an ongoing RE guru. In his own mind he is probably telling himself the story that he's now called the top accurately, and there'll probably be a cadre of uninformed morons around him who believe the same.Other examples of this phenomenon are folks like Abbie Cohen (still wealthy and employed) and even Greenspan the 'maestro' (who basically held a liquidity party and left before anybody has had to pay).Frustrating for bearish observers, but more proof that the universe is not obliged to play fair.ulster:Great piece, thanks for the link.Nice to hear that other have been sane and bearish since 2001.
May 6th, 2007 at 1:14 pm
An informative link to a recent commentary by Will Hutton in the UK, a respected economist. He given a few reasons why the UK market is going to collapse. I'm sure there are some parallels with Vancouver.Will Hutton, London Observer, May 6th 2007I've pasted an interesting follow-up comment from an informed reader below:MarkinChinaMay 6, 2007 4:58 AMA very good article. I first became concerned about overheating in the housing market as long ago as 2000/2001.The reason for my concern was that I was buying a house after returning from overseas. I saw one house which I missed due to the sale of my own house falling through at £115,000. 3 months later I saw a house in the same road, same type, slightly better condition but further away from the centre, and it was selling for £139,000, and achieved this price. This was the state of inflation at that time generally. Whilst this example was in 'Silicon Fen', as it became known, it was still an unjustifiable rise from any rational economic point of view. I have been waiting for a crash ever since.Fast forward to now.. Why did the crash not happen. In part there have been several factors that have been in play. World Macroeconomics- the introduction of China (& India to a lesser extent)into the world market has introduced a huge reserve of labour, which has helped to restrain wage inflation.- As above – but the introduction of Chinese manufacturing has helped to push down prices of many goods, holding down inflation.- The massive foreign reserves held by China and Japan have provided a supply of cheap money, helping to keep interest rates down. I describe this as a conveyor, where US (the most important consumers but also the UK et al)purchases goods from China, this creates foreign reserves in China, and this is then fed back on the return conveyor into 'cheap' money which is then lent so that households can continue to buy things. – In normal circumstance the exchange rate would rebalance this trading system, with the RMB appreciating , but the RMB is not a free currency. UK Macro- The UK has had a massive expansion in the population due to immigration. This is a sensitive subject with many people politicking about the numbers. As such to keep the focus on the economics here lets all just agree that it is 'a lot' by which I mean enough to influence supply and demand of housing – pushing prices up.- In addition there has been the speculative buy to let market, changes in the lending criteria for mortgages etc. pushing house prices up.- The immigrants are here, in part, in response to the 'success' of the UK economy which provides plentiful jobs. The UK economy is, in part, successful due to the massive expansion in the money supply created through the record growth in consumer credit, and also through increased mortgage borrowing that is the result of record levels of equity withdrawal, which is the result of house price increases. This in turn allows people to spend on home improvements, goods, services etc. thereby holding up employment, thereby encouraging immigration, and pushing house prices up.- In addition to this the government is also spending more money – resulting in borrowing increasing. Of particular note is that PFIs do not appear on the 'balance sheet' and are therefore a massive form of hidden borrowing. This is a big injection of money into the economy.If you take out the low inflation and interest rates that would not have occurred if China had not entered the world economy, the current boom would have disappeared long ago, as a rise in inflation and interest rate rises would have occurred. As it is we have now created a monstrous bubble, that will have to burst. I do not think people have yet to grasp how bad it will be. In particular if there is a downturn in the housing market/the economy (this is the classic chicken/egg story) – there will effectively be a loss of confidence. In each case house prices will fall/have fallen. Once they fall – they will collapse, as the equity withdrawal and 'feelgood' factor will disappear, and with it spending on goods, services etc. Banks will tighten credit in response, further pushing spending down. This will hit employment, further ratcheting the economy down. As unemployment increases some (or many) of the immigrants will start to go home, ratcheting down the house prices by reducing demand (One curious feature I discussed with an economist at Oxford University was that the immigrants will take their accumulated savings with them, which will be the equivalent of importing goods – you may wish to think about this point and realise that it makes sense – a further negative effect on the economy during a period when it will already be in trouble, and where typically the outflow of money will reduce with the tightening of spending).Sorry, a gloomy picture. However, in the UK the belief for a while is that borrowing is the same as earnings. This is not so and the lesson will be hard. We have had a 'strong' economy due to record borrowing. As we all know, pay back time must come with all borrowing. This develops a new question, aside from the City of London – have we any new earnings to show for the last ten years?? Is the growth of the City enough to support the UK on its own? I'll leave these questions open.
May 6th, 2007 at 12:47 pm
I honestly believe what Mr. Lereah et al, spewed during the hype, was so blatantly, contrary to basic truths that a legal case could be made. It’s one thing for construction helpers turned flippers to sell the hype, but for people who pass themselves as “experts†to explain away an obvious credit/RE bubble in terms of supply and demand etc, is plain immoral.I can see a round up around at election time just like Enron, Delphi etc, Local experts, be awareTick Tock, Tick Tock
May 6th, 2007 at 10:53 am
"We strayed from [economic] fundamentals, and we’re paying for it."Hmmm. When people were kind enough to point that out to him, he called them Chicken Littles. And he wrote a book refuting the concept. What an asshat.
May 6th, 2007 at 9:51 am
Aw screw it I'm going for it, I can't wait forever.http://vancouver.craigslist.org/rfs/325287707.html
May 6th, 2007 at 8:51 am
Here's some interesting grist for the mill from the Chicago Tribune <a href="http://tinyurl.com/2uadglhttp://tinyurl.com/2uadgl<br />Many of us know that the continent's number one real estate booster, David Lereah, has resigned his position as chief economist and spokesperson for the National Association of Realtors.What may come as a surprise are his remarks post-resignation which represent a profound about face replete with dire predictions. As evidence, his last official appearance for the NAR is a speech to realtors in Washington DC. Asked for a hint of the thrust of his speech, Mr. Lereah said "I am going to say, look, guys, we all have to face the music,’ Lereah said. ‘We strayed from [economic] fundamentals, and we’re paying for it. It’s not an all-out bust, not a crash in real estate, but it is a recession. This is going to cleanse the markets and in the long term this is what we have needed.’â€What I find interesting, beyond his prediction per the article that the US will enter its first real estate recession since the great depression, is the emphasis he places on prices straying from fundamentals. There has been much debate on local RE blogs about whether and to what extent economic fundamentals ultimately govern RE prices. It would seem that the industry's most high-profile RE cheerleader is in no doubt about the matter.Mind you, its different here.
May 5th, 2007 at 11:38 pm
Condos don't need parking?It's great that Rennie is so concerned about buyers' well-being – they can save up to $55K by not having a parking stall. Who needs transportation anyhow? Over at RET they say assignments are now 'available' at W. Been meaning to snap one up.It used to be a running joke at the old VHB site that W would represent the height of folly in this current Vancouver bubble.Who knows anymore? The way the dice are rolling, that box in ghetto-town might 'appreciate' three or four times over by the time the Olympics roll around.I've given up prognosticating. We've officially entered the RE twilight zone and all bets are off now.
May 5th, 2007 at 9:32 pm
Freako:I laughed so hard, tears came to my eyes. Great post! Puts my last year of market watching into perspective.
May 5th, 2007 at 9:30 pm
"Heard the sound of a clown who cried in the alley,"Meaning: Cam Muir got his pink slip. hahahahahahaha!! great juxtaposition loved it!
May 5th, 2007 at 3:31 pm
Three financially unsophisticted colleagues of mine have all bought condos in the past 4 weeks at the asking price. They al had the financial resources to buy several years ago but didn't because of fear. By that i mean they felt like buying was something for "adults" and despite being in their 30's they always perceived of themselves as "kids". It's hard to describe, but they just sat there and watched prices rise for years.The very fact that they've bought NOW makes me have some hope that prices are soon to stabilize or correct.I don't want them to lose money and be caught by this market, but i feel like these are those "last folks to the party" types. I also kept my comments to myself and congratulated them on their purchases as it appeared pointless to warn them of bubbles and the like.
May 5th, 2007 at 2:57 pm
I have been holding off buying. I just can't belive the insanity of prices. I thought things would have started to decline in the GVR region, but it just keeps going up, especially West Side Van. What the hell is going on?
May 5th, 2007 at 2:18 pm
SOL.(Smiling out loud).Thanks freako!
May 5th, 2007 at 12:05 pm
"Count me currently as one bear that's beginning to feel light-headed and punch-drunk as a result of the relentless barrage we're getting/….. there seems no limit."I don't know if schadenfreude is your thing, but reading the U.S. housing news can be very satisfying."Perhaps THAT'S what Bob meant!.."We were on the topic of song meanings last year. Speaking of Bob, was convinced that A Hard Rain's A Gonna Fall was about innocence lost in Vietnam. But the song was written in 1962, when the escalation of the conflict was but a twinkle in Kennedy's eye.I presume meaning could be read into anything. Maybe Hard Rain is really about the housing boom?"Oh, where have you been, my darling young one?I've stumbled on the side of twelve misty mountains,I've walked and I've crawled on six crooked highways,I've stepped in the middle of seven sad forests,I've been out in front of a dozen dead oceans,I've been ten thousand miles in the mouth of a graveyard,"Meaning:A parent ask what their young adult offspring has been up to. They have been going to open houses all over the place. "Oh, what did you see, my blue-eyed son?"Meaning: Did you find any you liked?"I saw a newborn baby with wild wolves all around it"Meaning: If I get priced out, my kid will have to grow up in a rental!"I saw a highway of diamonds with nobody on it,"Meaning: Coal Harbour condos are owned by offshore investors who don't rent them."I saw a black branch with blood that kept drippin'"Meaning: If prices go any higher, I will be bled dry."I saw a room full of men with their hammers a-bleedin',"Construction everywhere."I saw ten thousand talkers whose tongues were all broken,"Meaning: Lying realtors everywhere. "I saw guns and sharp swords in the hands of young children,"Meaning: I may have to buy in a crappy neighbourhood."And it's a hard, and it's a hard, it's a hard, it's a hard,And it's a hard rain's a-gonna fall."The market is seriously f*cked up. "I heard the sound of a thunder, it roared out a warnin',"Meaning: The U.S. is already f*cked."Heard the roar of a wave that could drown the whole world,"Meaning: The global impact of the housing bubble can sink the world economy.Alternate meaning: The Fraser will flood, wiping out a lot of crappy condos."Heard one hundred drummers whose hands were a-blazin',"REBGV clerks are working overtime entering listings."Heard ten thousand whisperin' and nobody listenin',"Meaning: The truth is out there in the blogosphere if you look for it."Heard one person starve, I heard many people laughin',"The U.S. market doesn't affect us."Heard the song of a poet who died in the gutter,"VHB had enough and packed it in."Heard the sound of a clown who cried in the alley,"Meaning: Cam Muir got his pink slip."I'm a-goin' back out 'fore the rain starts a-fallin',"Meaining: Like I said, the market is f*cked up, but I need a damn house now."I'll walk to the depths of the deepest black forest,Where the people are many and their hands are all empty,"Meaning: Whalley is not out of the question."Where the home in the valley meets the damp dirty prison,"Meaning: The new townhome development across the road the maximum security penitentiary in Matsqui looks nice."Where the pellets of poison are flooding their waters,"Queensborough looks OK too.The last verse is about reflection:"Where the executioner's face is always well hidden,"We did this to ourselves, but we will never admit it."And I'll tell it and think it and speak it and breathe it,"In the bubble of 2032, I will remind people of 2007.
May 5th, 2007 at 11:46 am
"With no debt and no down payment they say they'll lend $498,032.78"I think this is a bit light too. The brokers in Vancouver assume you have a basement suite or sublet so they tack on another $100K without blinking. Truth is if you pauper yourself you can afford a pretty nice house even today. Problem is, 1) if you lose your job you are screwed and 2) mortgage payments do not substantially fuel the local economy (though MEW does), which leads to problems down the road.
May 5th, 2007 at 11:17 am
" just plugged those numbers into the ing "how much can I borrow" calculator – With no debt and no down payment they say they'll lend $498,032.78. Thats a hefty debt load! "As I posted earlier, according to Fun&Mental, those guidelines are not used. Add about 35% to that amount.
May 5th, 2007 at 10:49 am
..I should say: hefty debt, but it still won't buy you a house in Vancouver.
May 5th, 2007 at 10:48 am
If a family earns 120K/year with no debt, what can they borrow?jesse: I just plugged those numbers into the ing "how much can I borrow" calculator – With no debt and no down payment they say they'll lend $498,032.78. Thats a hefty debt load!
May 5th, 2007 at 10:25 am
I still can't believe that grown men with fancy degrees continously spout such simplistic (and wrong) arguments…..and get paid obscene amounts to do so!Agree re fundamentals/markets.Count me currently as one bear that's beginning to feel light-headed and punch-drunk as a result of the relentless barrage we're getting/….. there seems no limit.$2Million+ homes on the westside sold 3 or 4 months ago that are standing empty.Isolated examples of 40% in 6 months spikes.I'd ask if my emotional state was "Sign of a top?" but I'm beginning to get sick of my own repetition.Perhaps THAT's sign of a top.—Then this occurred to me:"Now when all the clowns that you have commissionedHave died in battle or in vainAnd you're sick of all this repetitionWon't you come see me, Queen Jane?Won't you come see me, Queen Jane?"Perhaps THAT'S what Bob meant!..Perhaps 'Queen Jane' = '2007 Market Top in Vancouver RE'.Obviously, now it all makes sense.Man, I never cease to be amazed by his prescience.
May 5th, 2007 at 10:13 am
"Any word on what banks are lending out these days? If a family earns 120K/year with no debt, what can they borrow? "On REtalks, I pointed out that according to ING's calculator, a household income of $143K would be required to buy the median GV detached. With zero other debt, and with 20% down. Fun&mental who is a mortage broker explained that those rules of thumb no longer apply. Only about $90K income would be required. That is the funny thing. We make much ado about the fact that we don't have exotic lending here, but yet our lending standards have eased dramatically. Like a bunch of alkie bums who think the world has gone to sh*t because they spot a businessman snorting a line of coke. Hiding behind semantics that is.
May 5th, 2007 at 10:06 am
"By the way, this shouldn't be confused with predictions about the long term health of the Chinese economy. "Good point. It is very common for people to use strong fundamentals to justify excessive valuations.An assets valuation should be proportional to its fundamental outlook. But I hear many non-proportional arguments that do not take the RELATIVE valuations into account. This is not just by laymen but by the local real estate economists and analysts that we quote from time to time.Typical statement:"Price will continue to rise because we have low rates and strong economy"They view fundamentals as an absolute on/off switch, like a foot on the gas pedal. It isn't so. Or rather, it ought to not to be that way. Sooner or later, the ooncept of relative value will return. I know I have harped on this enough, but I still can't believe that grown men with fancy degrees continously spout such simplistic (and wrong) arguments.
May 5th, 2007 at 9:42 am
Going back to that Lereah post for a minute, unfreakin'believable, the guy flogs the thing like a rented mule all the way to the top of the mountain and then bolts in a chopper and leaves the strapped mule and all the sheep that followed to make their way back down as night and a storm approach.Bastard.
May 5th, 2007 at 9:23 am
"Some individual cases represent a 40% increase over Summer 2006."I think there is still a lot of money available, looking for something to do.Any word on what banks are lending out these days? If a family earns 120K/year with no debt, what can they borrow?
May 5th, 2007 at 9:23 am
All of this reminds me of that poster or t-shirt transfer that people had in the 70's of the two evil cartoon buzzards sitting on a branch with the caption, "Patience my ass, I'm going to kill something!"I think we all take solace in the belief of the natural order of things but this is just baffling. This could be the biggest bust maybe ever and it feels strange to be an armchair observer. Should I be constructing my tinfoil hat or am I just crazy and this is the new reality?
May 5th, 2007 at 8:51 am
The Bear anthem: Can't Time A Top.The Chinese stock market WILL collapse, but who knows when. Current pace simply unsustainable, and lots of stock-naive worker-speculators who are late to the party are going to get annihilated. Same old bubble story.But 75% in 4 months is absolutely crazy.This excess beats the Nasdaq 2000.By the way, this shouldn't be confused with predictions about the long term health of the Chinese economy.
May 5th, 2007 at 8:47 am
Those Chinese cities have similar price/rent ratios to Vancouver, interesting.Also, the article implies that the hunch I have that Vancouver RE prices will reach a peak the very month that the Chinese stock market peaks, is not that crazy.Anecdotally, some really whacky prices being acheived in westside properties this past week. Some individual cases represent a 40% increase over Summer 2006.
May 5th, 2007 at 7:57 am
Some interesting tidbits c/o Ben Jones: <a href="http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/<br />#1 ScapegoatsThe Sun Sentinel. “Real estate agents across South Florida kept pointing to this week, hoping state legislators would revive the housing market with a bold plan to fix the property tax crunch.â€â€œBut now that legislators have pushed off the tax talk until June, dispirited agents say they have little hope of salvaging the spring selling season as they face at least another month of soft sales.â€â€œâ€˜It’s just terrible what they did,’ said Bob Melzer, an agent in Boca Raton.â€â€œMany residents say they’re trapped, unable to buy larger or smaller homes because their tax bills would double or triple.â€â€œâ€˜The market is going to come back once we provide some equality and sanity to our tax structure,’ said Bob Goldstein, chairman of the Realtors Association of the Palm Beaches.â€Yup, its official. The imploding Florida market is all a result of property taxes. #2 Global bubble“The ratio between house prices and rental rates in several of China’s leading cities has soared well above levels that often indicate a property bubble, the Xinhua agency said on Saturday.â€â€œAn increase in house prices not matched by a rising rental market can signal an unsustainable price spiral, the researcher said. ‘The international warning line is 1-to-200. Once the ratio goes over the line, the market is in danger of a bubble,’ the report quoted Shan Jingjing saying.â€â€œIn the downtown areas of the four cities Xinhua listed, however, the ratio had already reached between 1-to-270 and 1-to-400, the report added.â€With the rampant speculation in Chinese stocks and real estate, the situation is precarious. Their bubble can pop spontaneously, or it can get help from a cooling U.S. economy. If Chinese bubble pops, infrastructure buildout will cool quickly, sending resource prices down.
May 5th, 2007 at 7:44 am
The number of seizures can be counted on one hand. As for renters, most of them work for the owner/dealer. They're usually fresh off the boat, get free rent and a salary of a month.When there's a bust the owner pleads ignorance, and the renter doesn't rat because A) they know the penalties are minor, and B) the owner is linked to the Triads and his penalty would be severe.This is the reason the police are pushing for seizure of property. Whether our lenient judges approve is another question.
May 4th, 2007 at 8:29 pm
There's a lot more than 18,000 grow-ops. Most growers buy older homesI thought the growers rented houses. Putting 700K into a house that is subject to seizure doesn't look like good risk-reward to me.The grow-op stories that I see in the media all seem to be about rentals.
May 4th, 2007 at 8:01 pm
If I were a bear, I would be very happy living in Las Vegas.
May 4th, 2007 at 6:29 pm
"Prices at the upscale 48-storey development near Howe and Georgia will range from about $685,000 for a 600-square-foot studio to $6 million for a 6,000-square-foot penthouse."Here I thought Shangri La's pricing was already pretty absurd, but it seems there are more competitors. I hope they have celebrity investors, because I doubt anyone else could be so foolish.
May 4th, 2007 at 2:09 pm
The Saudi's, the Russian's, the South American's, the Chinese. Same hype used in Florida. When the smoke clears, we'll see it's mostly home born speculation. Maybe some from Alberta, or other parts of Canada, just like speculators in Florida mostly come from other parts of US. Without real industry and wage support, speculation can only go so far. Anyway, I'm not complaining. My gf work in construction related trades, and this boom is giving her a good kickstart in her career.
May 4th, 2007 at 11:30 am
There's a lot more than 18,000 grow-ops. Most growers buy older homes so they can run a circuit around the meter box and not show up on BC Hydro's list. Let's make a guess of 25,000 homes, and consider that due to police raids, suspicious neighbours and knowledge of a grow-op's location leaking out into the criminal community, that 30% of these homes are turned over annually. That's 8000 home sales a year.Now, let's estimate that drug growers buy 1000-2000 homes a year for legitimate reasons such as investment, laundering or living.So now we're at 10,000 homes a year.How many homes were sold in the Greater Vancouver area last year? 36,000.Now, not all grow-ops are in Greater Vancouver but most are, and while these are just guesses on my part, I'd bet good money that I'm not too far off.
May 4th, 2007 at 9:51 am
Articles like that are funny – Its not like the 'wealthy' have the interest or the inclination to buy all of Vancouver at any price supporting ridiculous high prices that local wages can't afford.But if marketers dropped the crap it wouldn't be marketing would it?
May 4th, 2007 at 8:22 am
McCredie also feels many buyers will be attracted to the high-end shopping near the project, with retailers like Holt Renfrew, Tiffany & Co. and Hermes within easy walking distance.McCredie has either never shopped at Holt Renfrew in Vancouver, or never shopped in mecca's such as LA or New York. I'm sure things will be better once they open their new flagship store, but the jet-set crowd will not be coming to Vancouver to shop.How's about all the marketers drop the crap:"Vancouver is a pretty cool place. People, even the rich, would like to stay here every now and then."
on Days of ultra-cheap money coming to an end@mac: Not sure why your comments got held up in moderation, something tripped the spam filter. Hopefully posting works better
on Days of ultra-cheap money coming to an end@Bob the builder: "Have a look at the correlation of oil and the major indexes. They tend to go up
on Days of ultra-cheap money coming to an end@spareanickledimedollarpenny: "The 1880 Section 10 of the Canada Interest Act puts a maximum penalty of 3-months' interest on repaying any
on Days of ultra-cheap money coming to an end@McLovin: “That is good for the markets and the economy. (Other than oil companies)” You must be an amateur investor. on Days of ultra-cheap money coming to an end"You must be an amateur investor. Have a look at the correlation of oil and the major indexes. They tend
June 4th, 2007 at 1:57 pm
"Just where are all those new jobs supposed to come from? "I was referring to jobs created in the past year or two, mostly in construction and forestry, including pine beetle salvage harvesting. We can expect rent to go up at least for a year or two, as rental demands tend to lag employment changes.
June 4th, 2007 at 12:18 pm
markx:But my impression is, the Liberals seem tougher in that aspect, not giving in to demands even when the public treasure is not that tight.Depends what you consider "not that tight". The liberals inherited a budget in pretty severe deficit. I have family members in unions and I've been in one myself. But as a taxpayer I had no problem with the liberals giving them nothing. Times have been better lately and the unions were rewarded with an increase and a signing bonus.Now, the MLA pay & pension hike is another story.
June 4th, 2007 at 11:46 am
due to increased employment rate while population stay stableI find that highly improbable given the dire state of the forest industry, the high C$, and construction employment that has nowhere to go but down.Just where are all those new jobs supposed to come from?
June 4th, 2007 at 8:26 am
Loonie and mortgages rates going up reflects a strong economy overall. As the US dollar is declining against other currencies, don't infer too much from a rising loonie. Ditto re. rising rates as absolute indicators of economic strength.
June 4th, 2007 at 7:56 am
Loonie and mortgages rates going up reflects a strong economy overall. Given that the strength is mostly in western Canada, we can expect rents to go up with wages, and likely outpace wages by a large margin, due to increased employment rate while population stay stable. This is actually a strong case for bulls on the fundamental side. Too bad Chipman can only give the "many people have made money in RE" stuff.
June 4th, 2007 at 7:51 am
"If I recall correctly, teachers had a skirmish with the Dosanj NDP government before the shift of power. There may even have been a strike. "Teachers did had a skirmish with Dosanj NDP, (last minute deal). Support workers for schools had a full week strike. But my impression is, the Liberals seem tougher in that aspect, not giving in to demands even when the public treasure is not that tight. Overall, public union membership is not as big a deal in Liberal's time as NDP's time. In the 90's, it feels like being a member of a public union, whether it's teachers, school cook, hospital cook, or other staff, is extremely desirable, compared to any non-union career.
June 4th, 2007 at 7:25 am
satvWasn't that a Scooby Doo episode?
June 4th, 2007 at 5:43 am
Are the deals really that good to drive to the US? All the time and gas makes it seem not worth it for an out-of-the-way trip. I have stupid relatives who do that and I doubt they are really saving money.I agree. I remember a lot of the same talk when the C$ made a run from the 65 cent range to the 85 cent range.
June 4th, 2007 at 5:38 am
"Between a pay raise for teachers and nurses, and a Britannia Beach housing development, I choose the later."If I recall correctly, teachers had a skirmish with the Dosanj NDP government before the shift of power. There may even have been a strike.
June 4th, 2007 at 5:35 am
"Shanghai exchange currently down 5.3% (intraday, Monday 4 June 2007).That's about 12% off all time (recent) highs.China could pullback 50% in total, over months."Hit limits of 10% for the day, total drop now 15% since Tuesdays peak. However, other markets are shrugging it off.
June 4th, 2007 at 12:48 am
Somehow Sullivan ended up as Mayor of VancouverI think it had something to do with having one opponent called "Jim Green" and another called "James Green".Just like the NDP being funded by major public unions, the Liberals are funded by private businessThis is a common misconception. In fact the NDP gets by far the majority of its funding from individual donations. If you don't believe me, check the Elections BC website.If contributions were limited to individuals, the Liberals would be hurt far more than the NDP. The Doer government in Manitoba did just this some time ago (and was recently re-elected), but apparently this reasoning was lost on Glen Clark, who didn't.
June 3rd, 2007 at 9:49 pm
Shanghai exchange currently down 5.3% (intraday, Monday 4 June 2007).That's about 12% off all time (recent) highs.China could pullback 50% in total, over months.At some point, the US markets (and the TSX) will move down with the emerging markets.When the Chinese stocks crash, the top will be in for Vancouver RE.(Note: I say this not because I believe that Chinese folks rich from stock winnings are buying Vancouver homes (very small effect), BUT rather that the China peak will represent a turn in global liquidity).
June 3rd, 2007 at 9:20 pm
I read the Georgia Straight article. I find that it makes too many sensational accusations. It's no secret that the BC Liberals, and Gordon Campbell in particular, are backed by RE interested group. The largest campaigne contributor was association of independent contractors, if I remember correctly. Just like the NDP being funded by major public unions, the Liberals are funded by private business, and BC don't have all that many big businesses. All I know is, BC liberals helped inflate a RE bubble, provided strong job market for people outside the public unions, and got a huge amount of market housing built. On the other hand, NDP would likely have given Unions and the likes of APC a big fat raise. Between a pay raise for teachers and nurses, and a Britannia Beach housing development, I choose the later. At least a few thousand units will be added, which ultimately improves the demand/supply fundamentals.
June 3rd, 2007 at 8:59 pm
Somehow Sullivan ended up as Mayor of Vancouver. I wasn't paying much attention at the time (and don't live in Vancouver) but somehow it happened.
June 3rd, 2007 at 8:48 pm
ghost become bubble.there was a story of a realtor in 19th centuary.when his client approach to him to sell his house realtor had a look at his house and it was like love at first site,that realtor loved that house so much and plan to buy that house for him self.but he was not able to afford that house because that was so expensive.so what to do now how can I afford that realtor banging his head over night and creat an idea.he list that house through his source,but in the same time he install music system inside house. when ever some one go to see that house, while showing that house to his client,some how he use to turn the music on.that music he played was sound of devils,client got more scare when he manage to turn the lights off too.then make those client scream to say !ghost!ghost!ghost.while reviewing the status with owner he almost succeed to convince the owner to come down bit by bit ,time by time unless realtor was able to buy that house.suddenly owner found out that music system, that was installed under ground.then what ghost disappear and dream of realtor was broken.I want to say people do not blindly beleive in bubble this chemistry does not seems like working.bubble producer,director(vhb)has long gone,so does ghost and bubble.
June 3rd, 2007 at 8:36 pm
ratholeNot chinese stocks!
Seriously though, Europe should be more insulated if you want safety (Not England or the Scandinavian countries though). Try Poland or either of the former Czechoslovakias. If you only have a little money just do your research and get a good mutual fund that's well hedged.But don't take my advice if you have lots of money, pay a professional.
June 3rd, 2007 at 8:04 pm
"Mind you, nobody has high expectations for Sullivan anymore."Who did? Ever?
June 3rd, 2007 at 6:37 pm
Mind you, nobody has high expectations for Sullivan anymore.Anymore?
June 3rd, 2007 at 4:03 pm
Hi,If you guys are preparing for a real estate market correction and the US currency is also currently going down at the same time. Where do you guys recommend to invest someone's savings while they are waiting for the bubble to happen?Thanks,Rathole
June 3rd, 2007 at 3:15 pm
Raising peoples expectations too high is dangerous, especially when so many people are about to come here see the city first-hand. As a politician, Sullivan should know this. Mind you, nobody has high expectations for Sullivan anymore.
June 3rd, 2007 at 2:22 pm
digi: that is freaking hilarious! Sam should refer to himself as "Vancouverbashi" sorta like this guy.
June 3rd, 2007 at 2:00 pm
did anyone catch the article in the globe about Sam Sullivans press conference announcing that vancouver once again won a most liveable city award? The problem was that it was from 2005.Ah, Vancouver – we're slow but we're special.
June 3rd, 2007 at 10:03 am
I am still lurking on all of these Blogs. Even though I am a home owner I do feel that we are in a RE correction. These Blogs are full of interesting articles, info, etc.One question. What's up with VHB??? Is anyone a signed in member? What's going on in there?
June 3rd, 2007 at 8:45 am
Well he does talk about using a rent-vs-buy calculator which will take this into account, but that doesn't make the section on "positive cash flow" any less bogus.It borders on bizarre to neglect imputed rent as a benefit of owning, and in the very next paragraph say that investment property is a good investment if rent exceeds expenses. Indeed the parameters for owner-occupancy are more favourable due to tax advantages.
June 3rd, 2007 at 7:35 am
patriotzIf you read to the end of the article he does mention that you need to plug rent into your calculations…
June 3rd, 2007 at 3:29 am
Generally good article, butThat's right — a house clearly produces negative cash flow. Mortgage payments, maintenance, and taxes add up to a lot of money heading out and none coming in.is nonsense of course. You have to include the imputed rent, because if you didn't own the house, you'd have to rent something, duh.The correct approach is to include imputed rent in net cash flow, which of course is the same as asking if it would be cash flow positive as an investment.
June 3rd, 2007 at 1:13 am
<a href="http://biz.yahoo.com/fool/070518/117951154741.html?.v=1&.pf=real-estatehttp://biz.yahoo.com/fool/070518/117951154741.htm… />The Worst Investment Ever
June 2nd, 2007 at 3:34 pm
Are the deals really that good to drive to the US? All the time and gas makes it seem not worth it for an out-of-the-way trip. I have stupid relatives who do that and I doubt they are really saving money.
June 2nd, 2007 at 2:53 pm
From the Peace Arch News (it's only pop up, no url link, so I copied article) Larger loonie means local lossby Brooke LarsenStaff ReporterJun 01 2007A soaring loonie could spell trouble for the Peninsula’s retail and tourism industries, a local economist predicts.On Friday, the Canadian dollar was sitting at 93¢ against the U.S. buck, but forecasters say it could surge to 96¢ this summer and trade at par by 2008.That means more Canadians will do their shopping in Blaine and Bellingham, even though border lineups are long, says economist Michael Levy.Canadians are already heading south to stock up on TVs, computers, gas and groceries, Levy said, adding local retailers may have to drop prices to stay afloat.“It’s quite a serious situation,†Levy said. “(Canadian retailers) can’t keep marking things up.â€But it’s good news for merchants south of the border.“When someone is spending $200, it’s usually a Canadian,†said Janine Bailey, manager of Finish Line, a sporting goods store in Bellingham’s Bellis Fair.Bailey said the store has seen a surge in Canadian shoppers since January – most are bargain hunters from Surrey and Vancouver.Bellis Fair is even seeing stores pop up targeting Lower Mainland customers.Daiso, a Japanese dollar-style store, opened its first North American store in Richmond in 2004. In April it opened in Bellis Fair to attract visiting Chinese-Canadians, manager Jun Kato said.They get a good deal – even though the Canuck buck is strong, Richmond Daiso sells most of its wares for $2 or $3; most at the Bellingham location sell for $1.50.“Weekends we have a lot of Asian people from Vancouver,†Kato said.While the soaring loonie lures Canadians south, it keeps American tourists away, Levy said.“It’s not a bargain anymore. There’s no lure for Americans to come across the border and spend on the Peninsula,†he said.Dan Higgins of the White Rock South Surrey Chamber of Commerce said less American cash has flowed into the till at his Canadian Tire store since 2000.“They’re not getting the same bang for their buck,†Higgins said.“(The effect) is a tough thing to measure, he added. “It’s going to make a difference.â€
June 2nd, 2007 at 2:44 pm
I saw that BC economic report too. All the significant amount of job growth is all construction related. I would say the province's economy is quite fragile with so many industries dependent on construction continuing at a strong pace rate for growth.The same person that posted that link, asked Chipman about the high winter like inventory levels in the hot May selling season. He just ignored the question.
June 1st, 2007 at 9:42 pm
Some gallows humour for you. Go to nytimes.com and search for "Miami condos". What do you get?"V South Miami Condos Just Sign & Drive. Zero down & no money at closing.Call for details! <a href="http://www.vsouthmiami.com"www.vsouthmiami.com"<br />"Daytona Beach Waterfront Intercoastal Condos Starting 90k $25,000 in Closeout Discounts <a href="http://www.FloridaCondoRelease.com"www.FloridaCondoRelease.com"<br />And the first story?"As Condos Rise in South Florida, Nervous Investors Try to Flee"
June 1st, 2007 at 8:42 pm
Believing "reality TV" is real is like believing WWF is real wrestling. I mean, their script writers have gone on strike and made the news. How much hint do you need to know that it's as fictional as regular TV shows?
June 1st, 2007 at 7:59 pm
cbb,Somewhat more interesting than Alexa is <a HREF="http://www.google.com/trends?q=vancouver+real+estate" REL="nofollow">Google Trends. In particular what are those folks on the island doing checking up on Van RE? Hoping to move back? Or wondering if they sold too soon? Interesting also that the second language is Korean.
June 1st, 2007 at 4:13 pm
Joe: nifty, so that's what those two vans I saw today were…A few hours ago I was driving down Knight st and saw two orangey-yellow coloured minivans driving one behind the other, with all sorts of camera equipment mounted on them. There was something written on the trucks that clearly identified that they were taking street-level pictures, but I can't remember exactly what it was.I'll have to check that Google service sometime to see if I made the cut!
June 1st, 2007 at 3:48 pm
On somewhat related note – I like this CNN article about Google's new street view… can't wait to see the DTES on there…http://tinyurl.com/284f7u
June 1st, 2007 at 3:18 pm
Matt Good is summing up what I think a lot of people think/feel about Vancouver but don't admit to it… not sure why I would post his comments apart from sometimes I guess the little money made from Canadian music (serious – its not that much!) still doesn't make one happyhttp://www.matthewgood.org/2007/06/down-some-lonesome-street/
June 1st, 2007 at 1:02 pm
It doesn't matter if Ozzie's system works NOW, it just had to work at some time in the past so he can show nice looking data and graphs and such.People want to believe, they pay him money to make them believe more strongly. It's very much like organized religion that way…
June 1st, 2007 at 11:32 am
I'd like to introduce the topic of Ozzie Jurock. I've been watching clips from interviews and reading stuff on his website during the past four years. I'm wondering if this guy is still relavent. His message seems to always be the same; just buy a half dozen properties, take on a mountain of debt, rent them out and in a few years you'll be rich. On paper I'm sure it all works out, but given the reality of today's market and average person's ability to carry debt, is this message still relevant?
June 1st, 2007 at 10:57 am
I wish we could see actual traffic stats for sites like MLS rather than rankings – It would be interesting to see how that tracks the market, but in lieu of that statistic CBBs link is very interesting.
June 1st, 2007 at 10:54 am
MSN money has an article about the pros and cons of buying a condo, particularly in a hot market.http://tinyurl.com/38ocro"..while living under democratic rules which ensure the majority prevails is one source of acute stress, the forging of those rules-and the attached costs-can also be a hugely contentious issue.In new buildings, there's typically a rough template for governance and by-laws that's passed along from the developer. But refining the regime can be a messy business."
June 1st, 2007 at 10:40 am
Oh I didn't realize it was just the toolbar users who are counted. Probably has more to do with Alexa users dropping off than anything.
June 1st, 2007 at 10:40 am
Ah, I just noticed that these are rankings and not hit counts. That certainly obfuscates the data (and my pointless comment above).
June 1st, 2007 at 10:38 am
cbb – that alexa.com link is interesting. I agree it's difficult to know how informative it is regarding the market, but perhaps it gives some indication of the general interest people have for finding a new home. The periodicity of the data seems to suggest that – a huge dip in December and then building throughout the spring. Does anyone know what was happening during that dip at the end of 2004Q3?New data is always fun. What are some superficial observations?-The biggest caveat is that these stats are compiled from Alexa toolbar users – how representative is this sample? (Probably not very.)-Hits are down to 2002 levels. Are there alternative sites bleeding away users? (realtylink.org shows a similar decline.) -One would expect that today more people have access to the internet and an awareness of sites like mls. Does that add significance to the drop to 2002 levels?-Page hit counts can be deceptive or misleading. Someone could be automatically scraping the website to generate summaries. (In violation of the terms-of-use agreement.) Or changes in site layout can alter numbers.Still, I wonder how correlated this series is to sales?
June 1st, 2007 at 10:38 am
CBBIt definately means something but it looks like it has nothing to do with real estate. amazon.com, ebay and CBC.ca all show similar trends, a peak in 1st Q 2006 sharp falloff and then a gradual decline to now.It looks more like a trend in the way people use the internet rather than anything specific.
June 1st, 2007 at 8:55 am
"A former developer himself, Premier Gordon Campbell holds the purse strings to an Olympic-size sweepstakes payout."In drumming up support for the games there was a slogan being floated, and it turned out to be right – Millionaires for the 2010 Olympics.Like nobody saw that coming.
June 1st, 2007 at 8:50 am
Here's a bit of fun – go to alexa.com and enter "http://mls.ca" into the "site info" box at the right, then in the traffic graph click on the "max" button next to "Range:"The traffic falloff for mls in Canada is amazingly similar to that of "realtor.com" – the US NAR site – over the past 12-13 months.Probably means nothing, but I was surprised to what extent traffic to mls has fallen off!
June 1st, 2007 at 7:50 am
Thanks for pointing that out Drachen – I've corrected the post.
June 1st, 2007 at 7:24 am
That's not a Deliotte and Touche presentation.It was a presentation FROM the business council of BC TO Deliotte and Touche. I was wondering at the rosy slant to everything because I hear D&T has a very good reputation.Good facts and figures, I don't agree with a lot of the analysis, especially the "forecasts" coming from the federal govt. Seems more like selective filtering than forecasting.
June 1st, 2007 at 6:59 am
Good points pw, the other thing I noticed in that report is the graph on new jobs – construction has almost double the percentage growth than any other category.Great, but what happens when the mega-projects complete? We've got lots and lots of land to build condo towers on, so as long as demand keeps up we can move construction jobs there, but what if prices cut back on demand?
May 31st, 2007 at 10:05 pm
I skimmed the Deloitte & Touche report. What I found interesting was when they talked about the lack of inter-provincial migration of workers to BC they ignored the main reason for it. Why can't they just come out and say it? The reason why young families avoid BC is primarily because of our high real estate prices. Two other factors are low wages and relatively poor health care compared to Central Canada.Why can't we finally acknowledge that high real estate prices are actually BAD for the economy? They undermine the kinds of businesses that can build a strong economy in the longterm. The only "good" thing the bubble does is temporarily boost such housing and consumer spending. But that will exhaust itself and the personal debt will come back to haunt us.