Here’s your open topic post for Friday June 1st:
- REBGV sales stats for May 2007 available soon.
- Olympic size taxpayer subsidies for developers.
- Loonie and mortgage rates going up.
- Business council of BC economic outlook (pdf).
- Flipping the truth.
What are you seeing out there on the streets and sidewalks of Vancouver? Post your news, links, rants & anectdotes here!
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Here’s your open-topic free-for-all post for friday May 4th.
-Canadian construction slowing.
-Where are the nice condos?
-Vancouver’s still cheap to saudi royalty.
-New condos don’t need parking?
-18,000 grow-ops suspected in BC.
What are you seeing out there? Post your news, links and anectdotes here!
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on Friday, May 4th, 2007 at 7:11 am and is filed under Uncategorized.
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June 4th, 2007 at 1:57 pm
"Just where are all those new jobs supposed to come from? "I was referring to jobs created in the past year or two, mostly in construction and forestry, including pine beetle salvage harvesting. We can expect rent to go up at least for a year or two, as rental demands tend to lag employment changes.
June 4th, 2007 at 12:18 pm
markx:But my impression is, the Liberals seem tougher in that aspect, not giving in to demands even when the public treasure is not that tight.Depends what you consider "not that tight". The liberals inherited a budget in pretty severe deficit. I have family members in unions and I've been in one myself. But as a taxpayer I had no problem with the liberals giving them nothing. Times have been better lately and the unions were rewarded with an increase and a signing bonus.Now, the MLA pay & pension hike is another story.
June 4th, 2007 at 11:46 am
due to increased employment rate while population stay stableI find that highly improbable given the dire state of the forest industry, the high C$, and construction employment that has nowhere to go but down.Just where are all those new jobs supposed to come from?
June 4th, 2007 at 8:26 am
Loonie and mortgages rates going up reflects a strong economy overall. As the US dollar is declining against other currencies, don't infer too much from a rising loonie. Ditto re. rising rates as absolute indicators of economic strength.
June 4th, 2007 at 7:56 am
Loonie and mortgages rates going up reflects a strong economy overall. Given that the strength is mostly in western Canada, we can expect rents to go up with wages, and likely outpace wages by a large margin, due to increased employment rate while population stay stable. This is actually a strong case for bulls on the fundamental side. Too bad Chipman can only give the "many people have made money in RE" stuff.
June 4th, 2007 at 7:51 am
"If I recall correctly, teachers had a skirmish with the Dosanj NDP government before the shift of power. There may even have been a strike. "Teachers did had a skirmish with Dosanj NDP, (last minute deal). Support workers for schools had a full week strike. But my impression is, the Liberals seem tougher in that aspect, not giving in to demands even when the public treasure is not that tight. Overall, public union membership is not as big a deal in Liberal's time as NDP's time. In the 90's, it feels like being a member of a public union, whether it's teachers, school cook, hospital cook, or other staff, is extremely desirable, compared to any non-union career.
June 4th, 2007 at 7:25 am
satvWasn't that a Scooby Doo episode?
June 4th, 2007 at 5:43 am
Are the deals really that good to drive to the US? All the time and gas makes it seem not worth it for an out-of-the-way trip. I have stupid relatives who do that and I doubt they are really saving money.I agree. I remember a lot of the same talk when the C$ made a run from the 65 cent range to the 85 cent range.
June 4th, 2007 at 5:38 am
"Between a pay raise for teachers and nurses, and a Britannia Beach housing development, I choose the later."If I recall correctly, teachers had a skirmish with the Dosanj NDP government before the shift of power. There may even have been a strike.
June 4th, 2007 at 5:35 am
"Shanghai exchange currently down 5.3% (intraday, Monday 4 June 2007).That's about 12% off all time (recent) highs.China could pullback 50% in total, over months."Hit limits of 10% for the day, total drop now 15% since Tuesdays peak. However, other markets are shrugging it off.
June 4th, 2007 at 12:48 am
Somehow Sullivan ended up as Mayor of VancouverI think it had something to do with having one opponent called "Jim Green" and another called "James Green".Just like the NDP being funded by major public unions, the Liberals are funded by private businessThis is a common misconception. In fact the NDP gets by far the majority of its funding from individual donations. If you don't believe me, check the Elections BC website.If contributions were limited to individuals, the Liberals would be hurt far more than the NDP. The Doer government in Manitoba did just this some time ago (and was recently re-elected), but apparently this reasoning was lost on Glen Clark, who didn't.
June 3rd, 2007 at 9:49 pm
Shanghai exchange currently down 5.3% (intraday, Monday 4 June 2007).That's about 12% off all time (recent) highs.China could pullback 50% in total, over months.At some point, the US markets (and the TSX) will move down with the emerging markets.When the Chinese stocks crash, the top will be in for Vancouver RE.(Note: I say this not because I believe that Chinese folks rich from stock winnings are buying Vancouver homes (very small effect), BUT rather that the China peak will represent a turn in global liquidity).
June 3rd, 2007 at 9:20 pm
I read the Georgia Straight article. I find that it makes too many sensational accusations. It's no secret that the BC Liberals, and Gordon Campbell in particular, are backed by RE interested group. The largest campaigne contributor was association of independent contractors, if I remember correctly. Just like the NDP being funded by major public unions, the Liberals are funded by private business, and BC don't have all that many big businesses. All I know is, BC liberals helped inflate a RE bubble, provided strong job market for people outside the public unions, and got a huge amount of market housing built. On the other hand, NDP would likely have given Unions and the likes of APC a big fat raise. Between a pay raise for teachers and nurses, and a Britannia Beach housing development, I choose the later. At least a few thousand units will be added, which ultimately improves the demand/supply fundamentals.
June 3rd, 2007 at 8:59 pm
Somehow Sullivan ended up as Mayor of Vancouver. I wasn't paying much attention at the time (and don't live in Vancouver) but somehow it happened.
June 3rd, 2007 at 8:48 pm
ghost become bubble.there was a story of a realtor in 19th centuary.when his client approach to him to sell his house realtor had a look at his house and it was like love at first site,that realtor loved that house so much and plan to buy that house for him self.but he was not able to afford that house because that was so expensive.so what to do now how can I afford that realtor banging his head over night and creat an idea.he list that house through his source,but in the same time he install music system inside house. when ever some one go to see that house, while showing that house to his client,some how he use to turn the music on.that music he played was sound of devils,client got more scare when he manage to turn the lights off too.then make those client scream to say !ghost!ghost!ghost.while reviewing the status with owner he almost succeed to convince the owner to come down bit by bit ,time by time unless realtor was able to buy that house.suddenly owner found out that music system, that was installed under ground.then what ghost disappear and dream of realtor was broken.I want to say people do not blindly beleive in bubble this chemistry does not seems like working.bubble producer,director(vhb)has long gone,so does ghost and bubble.
June 3rd, 2007 at 8:36 pm
ratholeNot chinese stocks!
Seriously though, Europe should be more insulated if you want safety (Not England or the Scandinavian countries though). Try Poland or either of the former Czechoslovakias. If you only have a little money just do your research and get a good mutual fund that's well hedged.But don't take my advice if you have lots of money, pay a professional.
June 3rd, 2007 at 8:04 pm
"Mind you, nobody has high expectations for Sullivan anymore."Who did? Ever?
June 3rd, 2007 at 6:37 pm
Mind you, nobody has high expectations for Sullivan anymore.Anymore?
June 3rd, 2007 at 4:03 pm
Hi,If you guys are preparing for a real estate market correction and the US currency is also currently going down at the same time. Where do you guys recommend to invest someone's savings while they are waiting for the bubble to happen?Thanks,Rathole
June 3rd, 2007 at 3:15 pm
Raising peoples expectations too high is dangerous, especially when so many people are about to come here see the city first-hand. As a politician, Sullivan should know this. Mind you, nobody has high expectations for Sullivan anymore.
June 3rd, 2007 at 2:22 pm
digi: that is freaking hilarious! Sam should refer to himself as "Vancouverbashi" sorta like this guy.
June 3rd, 2007 at 2:00 pm
did anyone catch the article in the globe about Sam Sullivans press conference announcing that vancouver once again won a most liveable city award? The problem was that it was from 2005.Ah, Vancouver – we're slow but we're special.
June 3rd, 2007 at 10:03 am
I am still lurking on all of these Blogs. Even though I am a home owner I do feel that we are in a RE correction. These Blogs are full of interesting articles, info, etc.One question. What's up with VHB??? Is anyone a signed in member? What's going on in there?
June 3rd, 2007 at 8:45 am
Well he does talk about using a rent-vs-buy calculator which will take this into account, but that doesn't make the section on "positive cash flow" any less bogus.It borders on bizarre to neglect imputed rent as a benefit of owning, and in the very next paragraph say that investment property is a good investment if rent exceeds expenses. Indeed the parameters for owner-occupancy are more favourable due to tax advantages.
June 3rd, 2007 at 7:35 am
patriotzIf you read to the end of the article he does mention that you need to plug rent into your calculations…
June 3rd, 2007 at 3:29 am
Generally good article, butThat's right — a house clearly produces negative cash flow. Mortgage payments, maintenance, and taxes add up to a lot of money heading out and none coming in.is nonsense of course. You have to include the imputed rent, because if you didn't own the house, you'd have to rent something, duh.The correct approach is to include imputed rent in net cash flow, which of course is the same as asking if it would be cash flow positive as an investment.
June 3rd, 2007 at 1:13 am
<a href="http://biz.yahoo.com/fool/070518/117951154741.html?.v=1&.pf=real-estatehttp://biz.yahoo.com/fool/070518/117951154741.htm… />The Worst Investment Ever
June 2nd, 2007 at 3:34 pm
Are the deals really that good to drive to the US? All the time and gas makes it seem not worth it for an out-of-the-way trip. I have stupid relatives who do that and I doubt they are really saving money.
June 2nd, 2007 at 2:53 pm
From the Peace Arch News (it's only pop up, no url link, so I copied article) Larger loonie means local lossby Brooke LarsenStaff ReporterJun 01 2007A soaring loonie could spell trouble for the Peninsula’s retail and tourism industries, a local economist predicts.On Friday, the Canadian dollar was sitting at 93¢ against the U.S. buck, but forecasters say it could surge to 96¢ this summer and trade at par by 2008.That means more Canadians will do their shopping in Blaine and Bellingham, even though border lineups are long, says economist Michael Levy.Canadians are already heading south to stock up on TVs, computers, gas and groceries, Levy said, adding local retailers may have to drop prices to stay afloat.“It’s quite a serious situation,†Levy said. “(Canadian retailers) can’t keep marking things up.â€But it’s good news for merchants south of the border.“When someone is spending $200, it’s usually a Canadian,†said Janine Bailey, manager of Finish Line, a sporting goods store in Bellingham’s Bellis Fair.Bailey said the store has seen a surge in Canadian shoppers since January – most are bargain hunters from Surrey and Vancouver.Bellis Fair is even seeing stores pop up targeting Lower Mainland customers.Daiso, a Japanese dollar-style store, opened its first North American store in Richmond in 2004. In April it opened in Bellis Fair to attract visiting Chinese-Canadians, manager Jun Kato said.They get a good deal – even though the Canuck buck is strong, Richmond Daiso sells most of its wares for $2 or $3; most at the Bellingham location sell for $1.50.“Weekends we have a lot of Asian people from Vancouver,†Kato said.While the soaring loonie lures Canadians south, it keeps American tourists away, Levy said.“It’s not a bargain anymore. There’s no lure for Americans to come across the border and spend on the Peninsula,†he said.Dan Higgins of the White Rock South Surrey Chamber of Commerce said less American cash has flowed into the till at his Canadian Tire store since 2000.“They’re not getting the same bang for their buck,†Higgins said.“(The effect) is a tough thing to measure, he added. “It’s going to make a difference.â€
June 2nd, 2007 at 2:44 pm
I saw that BC economic report too. All the significant amount of job growth is all construction related. I would say the province's economy is quite fragile with so many industries dependent on construction continuing at a strong pace rate for growth.The same person that posted that link, asked Chipman about the high winter like inventory levels in the hot May selling season. He just ignored the question.
June 1st, 2007 at 9:42 pm
Some gallows humour for you. Go to nytimes.com and search for "Miami condos". What do you get?"V South Miami Condos Just Sign & Drive. Zero down & no money at closing.Call for details! <a href="http://www.vsouthmiami.com"www.vsouthmiami.com"<br />"Daytona Beach Waterfront Intercoastal Condos Starting 90k $25,000 in Closeout Discounts <a href="http://www.FloridaCondoRelease.com"www.FloridaCondoRelease.com"<br />And the first story?"As Condos Rise in South Florida, Nervous Investors Try to Flee"
June 1st, 2007 at 8:42 pm
Believing "reality TV" is real is like believing WWF is real wrestling. I mean, their script writers have gone on strike and made the news. How much hint do you need to know that it's as fictional as regular TV shows?
June 1st, 2007 at 7:59 pm
cbb,Somewhat more interesting than Alexa is <a HREF="http://www.google.com/trends?q=vancouver+real+estate" REL="nofollow">Google Trends. In particular what are those folks on the island doing checking up on Van RE? Hoping to move back? Or wondering if they sold too soon? Interesting also that the second language is Korean.
June 1st, 2007 at 4:13 pm
Joe: nifty, so that's what those two vans I saw today were…A few hours ago I was driving down Knight st and saw two orangey-yellow coloured minivans driving one behind the other, with all sorts of camera equipment mounted on them. There was something written on the trucks that clearly identified that they were taking street-level pictures, but I can't remember exactly what it was.I'll have to check that Google service sometime to see if I made the cut!
June 1st, 2007 at 3:48 pm
On somewhat related note – I like this CNN article about Google's new street view… can't wait to see the DTES on there…http://tinyurl.com/284f7u
June 1st, 2007 at 3:18 pm
Matt Good is summing up what I think a lot of people think/feel about Vancouver but don't admit to it… not sure why I would post his comments apart from sometimes I guess the little money made from Canadian music (serious – its not that much!) still doesn't make one happyhttp://www.matthewgood.org/2007/06/down-some-lonesome-street/
June 1st, 2007 at 1:02 pm
It doesn't matter if Ozzie's system works NOW, it just had to work at some time in the past so he can show nice looking data and graphs and such.People want to believe, they pay him money to make them believe more strongly. It's very much like organized religion that way…
June 1st, 2007 at 11:32 am
I'd like to introduce the topic of Ozzie Jurock. I've been watching clips from interviews and reading stuff on his website during the past four years. I'm wondering if this guy is still relavent. His message seems to always be the same; just buy a half dozen properties, take on a mountain of debt, rent them out and in a few years you'll be rich. On paper I'm sure it all works out, but given the reality of today's market and average person's ability to carry debt, is this message still relevant?
June 1st, 2007 at 10:57 am
I wish we could see actual traffic stats for sites like MLS rather than rankings – It would be interesting to see how that tracks the market, but in lieu of that statistic CBBs link is very interesting.
June 1st, 2007 at 10:54 am
MSN money has an article about the pros and cons of buying a condo, particularly in a hot market.http://tinyurl.com/38ocro"..while living under democratic rules which ensure the majority prevails is one source of acute stress, the forging of those rules-and the attached costs-can also be a hugely contentious issue.In new buildings, there's typically a rough template for governance and by-laws that's passed along from the developer. But refining the regime can be a messy business."
June 1st, 2007 at 10:40 am
Oh I didn't realize it was just the toolbar users who are counted. Probably has more to do with Alexa users dropping off than anything.
June 1st, 2007 at 10:40 am
Ah, I just noticed that these are rankings and not hit counts. That certainly obfuscates the data (and my pointless comment above).
June 1st, 2007 at 10:38 am
cbb – that alexa.com link is interesting. I agree it's difficult to know how informative it is regarding the market, but perhaps it gives some indication of the general interest people have for finding a new home. The periodicity of the data seems to suggest that – a huge dip in December and then building throughout the spring. Does anyone know what was happening during that dip at the end of 2004Q3?New data is always fun. What are some superficial observations?-The biggest caveat is that these stats are compiled from Alexa toolbar users – how representative is this sample? (Probably not very.)-Hits are down to 2002 levels. Are there alternative sites bleeding away users? (realtylink.org shows a similar decline.) -One would expect that today more people have access to the internet and an awareness of sites like mls. Does that add significance to the drop to 2002 levels?-Page hit counts can be deceptive or misleading. Someone could be automatically scraping the website to generate summaries. (In violation of the terms-of-use agreement.) Or changes in site layout can alter numbers.Still, I wonder how correlated this series is to sales?
June 1st, 2007 at 10:38 am
CBBIt definately means something but it looks like it has nothing to do with real estate. amazon.com, ebay and CBC.ca all show similar trends, a peak in 1st Q 2006 sharp falloff and then a gradual decline to now.It looks more like a trend in the way people use the internet rather than anything specific.
June 1st, 2007 at 8:55 am
"A former developer himself, Premier Gordon Campbell holds the purse strings to an Olympic-size sweepstakes payout."In drumming up support for the games there was a slogan being floated, and it turned out to be right – Millionaires for the 2010 Olympics.Like nobody saw that coming.
June 1st, 2007 at 8:50 am
Here's a bit of fun – go to alexa.com and enter "http://mls.ca" into the "site info" box at the right, then in the traffic graph click on the "max" button next to "Range:"The traffic falloff for mls in Canada is amazingly similar to that of "realtor.com" – the US NAR site – over the past 12-13 months.Probably means nothing, but I was surprised to what extent traffic to mls has fallen off!
June 1st, 2007 at 7:50 am
Thanks for pointing that out Drachen – I've corrected the post.
June 1st, 2007 at 7:24 am
That's not a Deliotte and Touche presentation.It was a presentation FROM the business council of BC TO Deliotte and Touche. I was wondering at the rosy slant to everything because I hear D&T has a very good reputation.Good facts and figures, I don't agree with a lot of the analysis, especially the "forecasts" coming from the federal govt. Seems more like selective filtering than forecasting.
June 1st, 2007 at 6:59 am
Good points pw, the other thing I noticed in that report is the graph on new jobs – construction has almost double the percentage growth than any other category.Great, but what happens when the mega-projects complete? We've got lots and lots of land to build condo towers on, so as long as demand keeps up we can move construction jobs there, but what if prices cut back on demand?
May 31st, 2007 at 10:05 pm
I skimmed the Deloitte & Touche report. What I found interesting was when they talked about the lack of inter-provincial migration of workers to BC they ignored the main reason for it. Why can't they just come out and say it? The reason why young families avoid BC is primarily because of our high real estate prices. Two other factors are low wages and relatively poor health care compared to Central Canada.Why can't we finally acknowledge that high real estate prices are actually BAD for the economy? They undermine the kinds of businesses that can build a strong economy in the longterm. The only "good" thing the bubble does is temporarily boost such housing and consumer spending. But that will exhaust itself and the personal debt will come back to haunt us.