Friday free-for-all
Here’s your friday free-for-all post for may 18th.
-protecting rental stock
-government gets cranky about CB developments
-bubbles easier to spot once they’ve popped
-Rennie: green is the color of money
What are you seeing out there?
Post your news, links & anectdotes here!
RSS 2.0 comments feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
May 18th, 2007 at 7:39 am
Rennie says DTES is a disaster area, but prices are sustainable because we’re running out of land, there’s no inventory, and, after all, Vancouver is a “real estate city”.
Oh, and note to Al Gore: global warming is not a disaster, it’s a marketing opportunity.
May 18th, 2007 at 8:46 am
“We are not a financial centre, we are not a head-office city, we are a real-estate city, a resort city and we are an amazing place to live,”
Was this a real-estate city in 1981?
May 18th, 2007 at 9:00 am
(re: CB developments article)
“I don’t know how the government can make sure these homes are completed.”
Indeed. Who’s going to pay to complete this project, especially if the NDP has its way and the original prices are enforced?
Not CB Developments (assuming it truly is broke).
Not the banks.
Not the buyers since they’re determined to only pay original price.
I guess that leaves the government. How nice of them! They won’t pay for more subsidized housing for those ungrateful homeless & street addicts in downtown, but heaven forbid regular middle-class suburbanites get thrown out into the street, er, rentals!
May 18th, 2007 at 12:30 pm
Indeed. Who’s going to pay to complete this project, especially if the NDP has its way and the original prices are enforced?
What? The NDP says parties to contracts should be required to honour them? They’re supporting property rights? What would Lenin think?
And in response to your disingenuous question, the buyers are going to pay to complete the project, like they contracted to do in the first place. Thats why they’re called “buyers”.
May 18th, 2007 at 2:41 pm
Patriotz, let’s imagine one of these buyers originally agreed to purchase a home for $400,000. And at this point, $400,000 has been spent on land acquisition & construction funded by bank loans.
But the home is incomplete and another $50,000 is required to complete the work!
My question (hardly disingenuous) is who’s going to pull $50,000 out of their pocket to buy the supplies & pay the trades to make this shell of a home liveable.
You say the “buyer” will… so not only are they on the hook for the $400,000 (required to remove the lien from the property) but also another $50,000 on top? They currently don’t seem receptive to a price increase like that.
I agree that CB Developments ought to fulfill their contract if they are able.. but if they’re broke, indignation & legislation alone cannot make nails, paint, & labourers magically appear.
May 18th, 2007 at 2:59 pm
That bubble article about edmonton is interesting, I’m suprised to see ‘industry experts’ urging caution in an article.
In the meantime, industry experts urge people to step back and think about whether this is really the time to cruise the MLS listings.
“I’d like to think that people would spend as much time on buying a house as they do on buying a car, but unfortunately it’s not that way,” says Alan Silverstein, a real-estate lawyer who has written books about real-estate buying.
“People should be buying according to the fundamentals — debt ratios and incomes. When you start tinkering with those things, then you have people who are going to be suffering down the road.”
Experts say people who buy property as rush investments are most likely to take a hit if prices fall.
May 18th, 2007 at 3:05 pm
Grant: so your assumption is that the people that run CB developments are financial incompetent?
May 18th, 2007 at 4:02 pm
Grant: so your assumption is that the people that run CB Developments are financial incompetent?
Can I answer for Grant? If you’ve been reading the stories it’s pretty clear that CB ran out of money due to rising costs and yes, probably mismanagement. The first thing they tried was to pull together their friends and colleagues to form a mortgage investment corporation to inject more cash into the project. But it appears that they have burned through that now too. So now they need to refinance but the bank won’t play along (and why would it) unless it can get access to the increased value of the properties.
It sucks for the buyers, but it probably boils down to a failed business and contracts that can’t be completed. That’s a risk you take when you buy a presale unit.
May 18th, 2007 at 4:08 pm
Re: rental units.
They say the condo boom has added thousands of new suites to the rental market. But city staff note rents in those units is on average 22 per cent higher than the purpose-built equivalent.
Yeah, but they have granite countertops.
May 18th, 2007 at 7:05 pm
A Real Estate Bull Has a Change of Heart
Once a serious booster for real-estate investment, David Lereah, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, is now sounding a note of pessism. In 2005, he wrote Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom, which suggested profits would “climb through the end of the decade.” Robert Siegel talks with Lereah.
May 18th, 2007 at 7:16 pm
http://davidlereahwatch.blogspot.com/
” It was My Publisher’s Fault ”
David Lereah was interviewed by ROBERT SIEGEL of NPR.
ROBERT SIEGEL, host: But to put this in some context, you have been a positive voice for real estate. So much so that a couple of years ago, you published a book in 2005 whose original title was “Are You Missing The Real Estate Boom” …. the subtitle of that book was “Why Home Values and Other Real Estate Investments Will Climb Through the End of the Decade.” What went wrong? Where was the point where you stopped seeing real estate values going up through 2010 and something happening to it instead?
Lereah: Great Question! First the boom was Double Day Random House Word that ..
Seigal: that your publisher, you are telling me
Lereah: .. put on the title. It wasn’t my title unfortunately. So it was a poor choice of titles.
Siegal: You are not the first person with that excuse in this studio.
Lereah: But if you actually read the book. I say the boom is not good, it cannot sustain itself. I actually redefine boom to be a healthy expansion.
Siegal: Well wait a second. But in the cover of the book you said it would be the “golden age’ of real estate.
A most interesting exchange. It is amazing to see the press actually press David Lereah for the his bad relentless cheerleading, his half truths and bad predictions.”
Of course, we don’t have people like this in Canada.
Tick Tock, Tick Tock
May 18th, 2007 at 7:31 pm
I gotta ask this question. And I am asking this as a former landlord. Why are Vancouver landlords so extremely anti-pet?
This extreme anti-pet attitude among landlords is peculiar to Vancouver. If you don’t believe me, browse both the Vancouver and Seattle Craigslists for comparison.
Literally, about 80-90% of Vancouver rentals don’t even allow you to have a cat.
It is not because all apartments are expensively fixed-up. I once saw a listing for a crappy basement suite in freakin’ Queensborough that said NO PETS.
I think the problem is we have so many small-time landlords who don’t really know what they are doing. They just follow the pack and falsely believe pets are an indication of a deadbeat, drug-taking dirtbag.
The way you weed out bad tenants is credit checks, proof of income, references, and personal interviews. It takes a bit of effort, but that is what works.
May 18th, 2007 at 7:32 pm
My question (hardly disingenuous) is who’s going to pull $50,000 out of their pocket to buy the supplies & pay the trades to make this shell of a home liveable.
The builder contracted to deliver the property for 400K and is obligated to use all its available assets to meet that commitment.
If the builder is broke, yes of course the buyer would have to come up with additional money if they want the project to complete. No one else is a party to the contract.
The $50,000 question is if the builder really did run out of money through misfortune or incompetence, or is just playing a shell game to try to sell to someone else at a higher price. I don’t know the answer, but if the latter it’s an attempt to defraud the buyers.
And IMHO shenanigans like this are just another omen of a pending market collapse.
Was this a real-estate city in 1981?
No, we had employers like McMillan Bloedel, Bank of BC, Vancouver Stock Exchange, numerous sawmills, etc.
But economic perpetual motion has taken over in the 21st century and the city can now run on RE alone, as Rennie says.
May 18th, 2007 at 7:47 pm
letters of understanding
————————
hey scoop
because it is very hard to estimate what people notice in comment writen by anybody,I want to tell you no body can write down the whole book in one comment.
THIS IS REGARDING CB DEVELOPMENT
you can read all previous article about cb development and collect my comments.
than read this brand post “says”government got krenky on cb development.
you can smell a victory of comment that I have posted.
earlier I have mention this amendment things and buyers edge
now see the base that government put sale on halt.
May 18th, 2007 at 7:53 pm
So, if according to Rennie, we are not a financial or head office city, where are residents going to get the money to purchase all this high priced inventory? If we are a resort for the rich and famous, that is fine, but last I checked hotel chambermaids do not pull in the six figure incomes necessary to buy into the condo lifestyle…….
May 18th, 2007 at 7:57 pm
It sucks for the buyers, but it probably boils down to a failed business and contracts that can’t be completed. That’s a risk you take when you buy a presale unit.
Bingo. More and more ‘can’t-lose’ morons are going to find this out.
May 18th, 2007 at 8:02 pm
Rennie should’nt be taken seriously.
His counterpart sociopaths
(Yes, I honestly think these people are sociopaths, they don’t seem stupid enough to believe what they say)
in the USA were saying the same thing, not long ago.
May 18th, 2007 at 9:14 pm
THUMBS UP TASTE THE THUNDER lala lala lala always coca cola yeah
Rennie says DTES is a disaster area
because most new projects and expensive projects are in west side and downtown and east down town and rennie making penny there not on east side still.
well said rennie you nailed it.we have three diffrent report in sameday.
rennie,cmhc,and td all matches with each other.
cmhc predict 35000 resale and 8% increase.
rennie is little better because he is the one actualy dealing in the field.
cmhc,and td on survey and calculation of source avialabel to them.
… /? /)
……………….. ..,../? ..//
……………….. …./… ./ /
……………….. ..,/? ..//
……………….. ./… ./ /
…………./??/’ …’/??`?
………./’/…/… ./… …./??\ RENNIE has prove his words
……..(‘(…?(… ……. ,~/’…’) and
………\………. ….. ..\/…./ ability that he can make a
……….”…\…. ….. . _.?
…………\……. ….. ..(
…………..\….. ….. …
DIFRENCE thumbs up rennie
May 18th, 2007 at 11:01 pm
So, if according to Rennie, we are not a financial or head office city, where are residents going to get the money to purchase all this high priced inventory?
Doesn’t have to be locals. Bill Gates and the Saudi royal family will buy all the crackshacks and Ground Zero condos and rent them out for 2% yield.
May 19th, 2007 at 8:05 am
“It sucks for the buyers, but it probably boils down to a failed business and contracts that can’t be completed. That’s a risk you take when you buy a presale unit. “
I will buy that as long as:
a) The developer doesn’t get a penny profit out of the deal.
b) There is no fraud involved (the developer sucking the money dry through non-armslength transactions that find their into the principals Swiss bank accounts).
In other words, the pecking order should be:
1. Lenders
2. Pre-sale buyers
3. CB developments
It looks to me as if CB took the liberty of swapping places with the buyers. A captain is supposed to go down with his ship. They did the equivalent of pushing women and children out of lifeboats to save themselves.
Now what about the deposits paid to date? Do they sit in trust? Is there any other monies placed in trust? If not, and the situation is very dire, the developer may be able to negotiate a deal where pre-sale buyers will accept cancellation in order to salvage their deposits. Hardly “fair” fair, but builder incompetence IS one of the risks. Builder greed ought not to be.
May 19th, 2007 at 8:09 am
“Rennie says DTES is a disaster area, but prices are sustainable because we’re running out of land, there’s no inventory, and, after all, Vancouver is a “real estate city”.”
I think Rennie forgets that the demand isn’t all about loving this city so much that people must buy. It is as much, if not more, about buying because prices are going up. Once prices stop going up, demand will drop off a cliff. As somebody else mentioned, 2% yield isn’t all that.
In conclusion, we are a real estate city when prices are going up. But then what are we when prices are going down? Welfare state?
May 19th, 2007 at 9:31 am
real estate city(vancouver)
we are real estate city in a sense Vancouver is beautiful and tons of amenities on finger tips,
but Vancouver was and still very cheap compare to international market.
May 19th, 2007 at 10:03 am
“We are not a financial centre, we are not a head-office city, we are a real-estate city, a resort city and we are an amazing place to live”, he (Rennie) said. from article by Ashley Ford, The Province, Friday, May 18, 2007.
—–
Let’s carefully file this quote, because I think it’s got the potential to be the very most re-quoted bubble-quote once we implode, and in the years ahead.
The article betrays the superficiality of Rennie’s/Vancouver’s current approach to RE.
“Green is the new Lemon-fresh”.
Who cares about substance/fundamentals when you’re selling ideas/’Intellectual property’?
Superficial, and Decadent.
Our city is a ‘real estate city’.
This is the equivalent of saying a car isn’t a means of transport, it’s for ‘driving around in’.
We don’t actually ‘Do’ anything here, we just ‘Be’.
Grow-ops, Film (largely cr*p TV), Porn, Tourism, Selling RE to each other, Importing money…
Pretty soon our entire culture will disappear into it’s own umbilicus.
——-
(above written with curmudgeonly licence)
May 19th, 2007 at 10:10 am
No, we had employers like McMillan Bloedel, Bank of BC, Vancouver Stock Exchange, numerous sawmills, etc.
But economic perpetual motion has taken over in the 21st century and the city can now run on RE alone, as Rennie says.
I can’t believe you are pessimistic on the economy. Sorry but its red hot. I don’t want to suggest it should support the last 5 years of double digit RE growth, but the bottom line is things are booming. Anecdotally, my company of 650 employees hired 150 people last year, and revenues grew 30%. These are all university educated jobs in the $55k+ range for people fresh out of school.
Canada will always have a commodity based economy, but there are plenty of room for other things. The Vancouver Sun had an article last week saying there were more openings for IT jobs in the province than ever before.
Maybe if the NDP wasn’t running things in the 90s we could have had an Oregon-style turn from lumber to IT, but alas we are playing catch up now.
May 19th, 2007 at 10:14 am
patiently:
I think the problem is we have so many small-time landlords who don’t really know what they are doing.
I am a “small time landlord” and I’m also a pet owner. I rent a place that allows us to have a cat and dog. But I don’t allow pets (or smoking) in my rental suite. Why? Because I can. Pets are typically fine, but they are also a risk. That being said, I have a nice suite downtown that commands a premium dollar, so any damage deposits could easily be wiped out in pet (or other) damage.
I’ve never had my suite sit empty in the last 4.5 years. If things change, I’ll adapt my policies.
May 19th, 2007 at 10:17 am
We don’t actually ‘Do’ anything here, we just ‘Be’.
Grow-ops, Film (largely cr*p TV), Porn, Tourism, Selling RE to each other, Importing money…
Pretty soon our entire culture will disappear into it’s own umbilicus.
That’s been the anti-trade, anti-globalization argument in all of North America since the 80s. Somehow we are still here and doing fine.
Ever been to the airport during cruise season? People come by the thousands to take cruises leaving from Vancouver and Victoria. What is so wrong with that? Its FREE MONEY in the form of taxes and boosts to local business. Stop worrying and enjoy it.
May 19th, 2007 at 10:22 am
the bottom line is things are booming.
I don’t think anyone disagrees, but it’s a question of how long that boom is sustainable and how severe the bust will be.
Look back at the history of booms and busts, and the boom is always at a peak before it busts. Everyone is making money, the economy seems invulnerable, and then the bottom falls out faster than people imagined possible. Bubbles burst because they’re held together by surface tension, with nothing to support them inside.
May 19th, 2007 at 10:32 am
Maybe if the NDP wasn’t running things in the 90s we could have had an Oregon-style turn from lumber to IT
Definitely. In a long and varied history of SNAFUs, that was probably the NDP’s single most egregious mistake.
May 19th, 2007 at 11:25 am
>> This extreme anti-pet attitude among landlords is peculiar to Vancouver. If you don’t believe me, browse both the Vancouver and Seattle Craigslists for comparison.< <
Thanks for pointing that out. I checked Seattle and they have pages of listings. Same as San Francisco. Even considering that both cities are larger than Van, there’s something weird about this place.
Kind of a herd mentality/group-think that buys into strange urban myths like; this is The Best Place To Live With The Best Weatherâ„¢ and Decent People Do Not Own Pets.
Silly little city.
May 19th, 2007 at 11:38 am
> We don’t actually ‘Do’ anything here, we just ‘Be’.
Grow-ops, Film (largely cr*p TV), Porn,…<
As an aside, I hope I wasn’t the only one that saw yesterday’s noon news on global. Seems there’s a TV crew from Boston in town shooting a film about the sheer wonderousness of Vancouver.
Their TV cameras were stolen when they were in a coffee shop. They’re worth about $60K. The producer of the show says they were targetted; it wasn’t a junkie or homeless person that stole the cameras.
I’ll bet an aspiring pornographer would find them to be a real asset, however.
May 19th, 2007 at 1:02 pm
Warren, although I don’t agree with you, I occasionally find your posts interesting; on the whole balanced and intelligent, but not on this thread.
May 19th, 2007 at 1:44 pm
In other words, the pecking order should be: 1. Lenders 2. Pre-sale buyers 3. CB developments
I agree that would be fair and I hope that’s the outcome. But I think that under most presale contracts, the purchaser doesn’t have a property interest until construction is complete. They just have an agreement that they will buy the unit for $x when it’s complete. So if it doesn’t complete, what do they have? I guess we’ll find out in time.
If I remember correctly the deposits were returned with the “cancellation” letters. These probably would have been in trust and would not have been released for the developer to use.
May 19th, 2007 at 2:10 pm
Warren, although I don’t agree with you, I occasionally find your posts interesting; on the whole balanced and intelligent, but not on this thread.
Care to elaborate? I disagreed with 3 people in a row, so I need some guidance here. I’m just here for some intelligent debate.
May 19th, 2007 at 2:15 pm
Kind of a herd mentality/group-think that buys into strange urban myths like; this is The Best Place To Live With The Best Weatherâ„¢ and Decent People Do Not Own Pets.
Its still a free market. I’m sure I could increase my rent by $50, allow pets, and get a renter with pets.
Rental markets are interesting, I think it is an example of the laws of supply and demand at its best. Its not like gasoline or automobiles where there are a large number of buyers at the mercy of small amounts of suppliers. The rental market in the GVRD is composed of literally hundreds of thousands of suppliers and buyers.
The reason why there is a tight supply is a topic for another thread, but the fact is that it has been like that for years, and we are seeing the effects.
May 19th, 2007 at 2:19 pm
Warren,
I appreciate your honesty. And what you have is a “nice” downtown apartment, the kind of housing that has always been a bit inaccessible to pet owners. What’s bizarre, is NO PETS ads for crappy suites in East Van, Poco, New West and even Surrey. There is no logic to it.
Since you’re being so honest, let me ask you a question: If you discovered that an otherwise model tenant had sneaked in a small animal that was not causing any problems, would you threaten to evict that tenant?
May 19th, 2007 at 2:31 pm
Thankfully, the supply of rentals should soon dramatically increase. I know we are seriously thinking about leaving because the rental situation is getting worse, but there is so much new supply being built. We will wait another year to see if things improve significantly. Otherwise, we are probably moving to Ontario where there is cheaper housing, better jobs, and some friends and relatives.
May 19th, 2007 at 2:33 pm
patiently:
Since you’re being so honest, let me ask you a question: If you discovered that an otherwise model tenant had sneaked in a small animal that was not causing any problems, would you threaten to evict that tenant?
Well, no, probably not, assuming there was no damage. I’ll do you one better: I moved into my current place with a room mate, and no pets (which was a restriction in the original ad). My room mate left after about 1.5 years and my girlfriend wanted to move in, with her cat and dog. I asked my landlord about it, and he said ok, since I was a good tenant, and I would be leaving if she couldn’t bring her pets.
The issue is that there are so many unknowns when you have an empty place to rent. Everyone has heard the horror stories of certain tenants, so landlords just protect themselves as much as they can.
This same landlord has not increased the rent on me in 3 years, nor have I for good, long term tenants.
May 19th, 2007 at 3:10 pm
“he (Rennie) said. from article by Ashley Ford, The Province, Friday, May 18, 2007.”
You may recall Ford as the guy who wrote some comically illtimed RE boosting columns on the cusp of bubble burst in 1981.
“Because I can. Pets are typically fine, but they are also a risk.”
That is just the thing. In our quest for perceived equality, we sometimes end up shooting ourselves in the foot. All else the same, pets ARE a risk. As a landlord, I would be open to taking petowners on providing
a) Higher rent
b) Higher deposit
c) High quality tenant.
The problem is that you will not be able to advertise separate rates for pet owners, so scrap a. I am not sured if the RTA changed, but when I was last in the landlord business you were stuck with 1/2 months rent. As for c), I would prefer a high quality tenant with a pet than an as*hole without. But I would also prefer an as*hole without pets to an as*hole with pets, and a great tenant without pets to one with. Conclusion: There is little incentive to accept pets.
“I can’t believe you are pessimistic on the economy. Sorry but its red hot. “
I don’t doubt that our economy is hot, but I think that a good portion of this is due to
1. RE boom (construction, consumption consequent squeeze of resource prices).
2. Asia’s booming economies (squeezing resource prices). I think that to a degree 2 flows from 1. If:
U.S. housing continues to slow, the U.S. economy goes into recession AND China’s stockmarket and RE takes a hit which slows infrastructure buildout, our economy could be into a world of hurt.
Since our RE is marginally affordable at low rates in a hot economy, the downside is enormous.
May 19th, 2007 at 4:25 pm
freako: I am not sured if the RTA changed, but when I was last in the landlord business you were stuck with 1/2 months rent.
In fact the RTA did change about 2 years ago, allowing an additional 50% “pet damage deposit”. This was in response to the complaints of pet owners.
If: U.S. housing continues to slow, the U.S. economy goes into recession AND China’s stockmarket and RE takes a hit which slows infrastructure buildout, our economy could be into a world of hurt.
Sure there’s risk, I was just commenting on the consistent negativity of the message. Enjoy things while they are going well, don’t keep worrying about the downside is my general thought.
Recognizing the risks is important, which is why I’m not buying real estate now. But if you have a continual negative outlook, when would you ever buy?
May 19th, 2007 at 6:39 pm
warren said:
Enjoy things while they are going well, don’t keep worrying about the downside is my general thought.
…But if you have a continual negative outlook, when would you ever buy?
a. Who says bears aren’t enjoying things?
b. You’ll buy when there is reasonable value, by sound historic metrics.
Don’t confuse being a bear in the current outrageously, laughably, uber-overpriced Vancouver RE market with having a ‘a continual negative outlook’.
I really don’t see how they’re related.
Somebody who is aware of the onset of night ‘all evening’, isn’t a pessimist.
May 19th, 2007 at 6:39 pm
“The U.S. economy is slowing markedly; inflationary pressures are building; corporate profits are coming down from record levels; and the U.S. housing slump and soaring gasoline prices are bound to take their toll on spending by the overstretched consumer. And if all that isn’t enough to worry about, there’s the Chinese equity bubble, which could explode at any time.â€
since it’s an open topic I want to post a reminder of my staflation revisiting theory
May 19th, 2007 at 6:51 pm
Maybe if the NDP wasn’t running things in the 90s we could have had an Oregon-style turn from lumber to IT, but alas we are playing catch up now.
Baloney. I work in IT and the industry did very well in Vancouver in the 90′s. Of course IT did well everywhere, since the dot-com boom was in the late 90′s. But the Glen Clark government actually changed the employment standards act to make it more amenable to high-tech employers (not that I’m a great fan of Clark).
Not once did I ever hear of any IT employer or any prospective employee avoiding the province because of the NDP government.
The fact is that high-tech is virtually unregulated by government and non-union, so the government of the day has little direct impact on the business. However externalities such as education and quality of life do matter.
Rather than playing “catch-up”, in fact IT in Vancouver is in big trouble today because – surprise! – the absurd housing prices make it hard to recruit qualified people, when they can have a house for half the price in Ottawa. Yet another chapter in the hollowing out of the BC economy.
And yes, the Campbell government had it within its power (like all governments) to stop RE speculation, but chose not to. Who needs real businesses when you’re a “real estate city”. Move over, Phoenix.
May 19th, 2007 at 6:56 pm
The problem is that you will not be able to advertise separate rates for pet owners, so scrap a (higher rents)
Don’t have to, Freako. Just set the rent to a level that pet owners are willing to pay, but not non-pet owners.
It’s the same as landlords who rent to international students and other high-risk clientele. No explicit segregation of the market – the price does it for you.
May 19th, 2007 at 8:04 pm
“Enjoy things while they are going well, don’t keep worrying about the downside is my general thought.
“
From a passive point of view that makes sense. Why worry about things that you cannot control?
But RE exposure (among other things) can be controlled, so I think it is fair to cast a critical eye towards valuation of exposed assets. Just MHO of course.
I have no beef with appreciating our recent economic fortune. However, I see decadent and irresponsible behavior as a result.
“But if you have a continual negative outlook, when would you ever buy?”
Are you talking me, posters here, or bears in general? Whatever is the case, I don’t think you have the data set to conclude continual negative outlook. In my opinion, RE prices have been overvalued since I first posted, and before the numerous bear blogs appeared. Why would I or anybody else change our sentiment when the fundamentals worsen.
Are you concluding that people who draw the line on value and stay out of the market are negative people in general? I don’t think you can conclude that as long as fundamentals are piss poor. If I continually refuse to ride with a drunk drive, does that mean that I have a continual negative outlook in your opinion? Fact is, as soon as the dude sobers up, I’d ride with him. But you wouldn’t know that until the dude sobered up.
May 19th, 2007 at 8:07 pm
“Don’t have to, Freako. Just set the rent to a level that pet owners are willing to pay, but not non-pet owners”
That would segment the market, yes. But it would also limit my market and commit me to this relatively small pet owner group. A niche, I presume. But are pet owners really willing to pay more (as they should). People will do the darndest things when they feel discrimated against.
May 19th, 2007 at 9:23 pm
Mold City,
Grant: so your assumption is …
Scoop answered better than I could!
Patriotz,
If the builder is broke, yes of course the buyer would have to come up with additional money if they want the project to complete.
I agree with you but neither the original buyers no anyone else seems interested in that answer.
May 19th, 2007 at 10:37 pm
Not once did I ever hear of any IT employer or any prospective employee avoiding the province because of the NDP government.
At some point in the early 90′s there was much public discussion of making Vancouver into a ‘Silicon Valley North’. It was in all the media for many months. The NDP and their union-labour bedfellows consistently trashed the idea, saying they didn’t want any “high-tech sweatshops” here, and the several large IT companies who were considering setting up shop here soon decided against it.
May 19th, 2007 at 10:49 pm
My wife and I have a large dog and two cats, but we had no problem finding a place to rent 2 yrs ago.
I called ads which specifically said “no pets” and many times was able to persuade the owner to change their policy by emphasizing that my wife and I were respectable white-collar ‘neat freaks’ (slight exaggeration) who would take far better care of their property than most people without pets (no exaggeration).
That said, I’ve seen many lousy pet owners and would be reluctant to rent a property I owned to all and any pet owners. That said, I wouldn’t rent to anyone with kids for similar reasons.
May 20th, 2007 at 6:06 am
rentah:
Don’t confuse being a bear in the current outrageously, laughably, uber-overpriced Vancouver RE market with having a ‘a continual negative outlook’.
Not all bears fall into this camp, but there are some who dismiss any positive news. Just because I don’t believe Rennie’s BS, doesn’t mean I don’t believe the positive news coming out about the prospects of continued economic growth.
Besides, if the economy tanks, as so many bears seem to hope, you’ll be worrying more about your own job than buying a house that has dropped 30% in value.
May 20th, 2007 at 6:11 am
patriotz:Not once did I ever hear of any IT employer or any prospective employee avoiding the province because of the NDP government.
My lumber to IT example was simply an Oregon reference, whereby they re-invented their economy in the early 90s.
We hear a lot about how Vancouver doesn’t have corporate HQs, high paying jobs, etc. Our geography puts us in a perfect position for this kind of thing, so why not? Why did they all move out and/or settle in Calgary instead of here?
Hint: its not the Chinook winds.
I’m no fan of the BC Liberals, and it almost doesn’t matter what Gordo does, but business came back because of the impression of what his party stands for. They have certainly tried to make friendly with business. Nobody likes corporate handouts, but the sad fact is our competition here is Alberta.
May 20th, 2007 at 6:14 am
beta:At some point in the early 90′s there was much public discussion of making Vancouver into a ‘Silicon Valley North’.
I remember specifically rumors of Microsoft opening a large campus here, instead of dealing with the hassles of importing workers to Redmond. They hire thousands of Canadians, and the border problems are as big today as pre-NAFTA. A friend of mine was denied a visa 3 times at local border crossings. Microsoft flew him to Toronto where he crossed at Buffalo instead and got the visa there.
May 20th, 2007 at 6:51 am
Warren:
Provincial governments, left or right, from BC or Alberta, have had nothing to do with this world wide manufactured boom.
May 20th, 2007 at 7:21 am
Warren and realtors:
Developing countries pumped out a lot of goods at low costs, and kept their currencies low, while developed countries printed low cost money to pay for those goods.
Also, I see you have a sense of humor:
“Besides, if the economy tanks, as so many bears seem to hope, you’ll be worrying more about your own job than buying a house that has dropped 30% in value.â€
Only 30% maybe.
Our local economies are running at double digit inflation, the Wal-marts are importing deflation; this is a mess that will be hard to clean up.
I don’t want a jumbo mortgage or a balance on my Home Depot credit card when the piper has to be paid.
As for the IT jobs, most can be performed via satellite.
May 20th, 2007 at 8:33 am
“Provincial governments, left or right, from BC or Alberta, have had nothing to do with this world wide manufactured boom.”
Governments rather unfairly get set to task on the shape of the economy, when often they have little impact. Much of Canada’s economy relates to exports, so how we do depends a lot on external demand for our products. What our government is really does not influence this much.
My pet example is Alberta, where the oil revenues alone insure that a monkey could likely run the province….Actually in light of who the premier was, a monkey may have done better….
May 20th, 2007 at 9:26 am
Provincial governments, left or right, from BC or Alberta, have had nothing to do with this world wide manufactured boom.
Governments get unfair criticism and praise for economies, however I’m going to say its 50% business cycle, and 50% policy. Can you explain why BC was falling behind in the 90s while the rest of Canada was doing well?
As for the IT jobs, most can be performed via satellite.
Tell that to Microsoft, who employs half of its 70,000 people in one suburb of Seattle. I’m going out on a limb here and suggesting that’s the top half of the jobs they provide.
Here’s my problem with your arguments: you keep pointing out the negatives of the situation we are in. That’s fine, but you seem to be able to point out negatives for ANY situation. So what will that get you? Not a lot.
Many people looked at the dot-com bubble and said “boy that has to pop, I’m never investing in tech stocks”. But many other people invested in them, and cashed out at the right time. Note: the right time doesn’t have to be the absolute peak, you could have made 100% profit in a few years, but still missed on bigger gains. The point is you took a gain and walked away.
Its one thing to be aware of the risks in the market (housing, stock, job, whatever), and its another to be chicken little, afraid to take any chances or make any moves.
If you’re so negative on the job market and the economy, when would you ever buy? If prices were to drop 50% in 12 months, you’d still be looking at a large mortgage. How can you justify buying at that time if you’re still convinced the economy is being held up by a house of cards? Wouldn’t the 50% drop make you (and the rest of Vancouver) think the economy is is terrible shape?
May 20th, 2007 at 10:03 am
IS IT DIFFERENT HERE…
I’ve been following discussions on now defunct VHB and on this blog for quite a while. The most often cited arguments in favor of housing bubble hypothesis are price to rent, and affordability ratios. It is difficult to disaree that both metrics point to extreme overpricing. Plus there is plenty of anecdotal evidence of general hype surrounding residential real estate, which is indicative of speculation activity.
However there is unexplained evidence (not on this blog at least) which is inconsistent with the bubble theory. Namely there is extremely low rental vacancy rate in Greater Vancouver. How could it be with all the construction going on, people buying properties and moving out, and with the population statistics showing very little growth? Bubble situations in Florida and San Diego at resulted in overbuilding and in “investment properties†sitting vacant for years. Here in Vancouver it is different: vacancy rate in downtown area is 0.7%. So, something has to give. It seems to me that there is good chance for the market to reach equilibrium at higher rents, rather then lower prices. Taking into account that rental rates increases are limited by law, the adjustment of rental rates to the prices might take some time.
I suspect that the BC population growth statistics is not correct. In reality it must be much higher to account for the low vacancy rates. Generally speaking the world population growth diagram shows exponential rise in the last 50 years. Could that influence real estate prices here?
P.S. Please somebody tell me that I am wrong, I want eventually to buy a house here…
May 20th, 2007 at 10:08 am
Warren, you are starting to sound like Aaron of Chipmanland.
As for the IT jobs, comapare your #s to how many were created in China or India.
May 20th, 2007 at 10:11 am
flip this:P.S. Please somebody tell me that I am wrong, I want eventually to buy a house here…
I agree with you to the extent that prices are way beyond fundamentals, yet rents are tight and there seems to be some “other force” out there that the statistics don’t show.
However the rental controls exercised by the government will limit the speed of rent increases. Also, I believe its freako who pointed out that rents are the true price that people are willing to pay for shelter. The exorbitant price to purchase a home is based on the estimation of its future value, not any value you are getting from living there now (which is incredibly small).
So what is causing it? Some suggestions:
1. Illegal drug trade/crime – possible, I think the effect is understated, but Vancouver is not the only place with crime. Is it the mafia that keeps prices high in Manhattan?
2. Offshore money – immigrants aside, how can we track the money flowing into Vancouver from Asia and other places? I don’t think stats can account for that very well. Are these mortgages obtained by “locals” in fact being paid from overseas? Is there a loophole being taken advantage of here? What is the difference between a local and a foreigner getting a mortgage here? I’m sure a foreigner needs to put down at least 25%, among other factors.
May 20th, 2007 at 10:33 am
Bubble situations in Florida and San Diego at resulted in overbuilding and in “investment properties†sitting vacant for years.
Vacant but not on the rental market, and apartments were being converted en masse to condos; consequently, Florida did have a low rental vacancy rate. It’s only recently that investors have thrown their non-selling houses on the rental market and condos were reconverted back to apts that the vacancy rate changed.
Renting in downtown Vancouver will always be tight, but the burbs is another matter.
May 20th, 2007 at 10:39 am
At some point in the early 90′s there was much public discussion of making Vancouver into a ‘Silicon Valley North’. It was in all the media for many months. The NDP and their union-labour bedfellows consistently trashed the idea, saying they didn’t want any “high-tech sweatshops” here
Quite frankly, I don’t believe you. One, Harcourt would never have said such a thing. And not Clark, in public anyway, or anyone in the caucus as far as I know. And if you’re referring to what some non-elected blowhards might have said, spare us.
As I already said, the NDP government actually changed the Employment Standards Act to allow more “sweat-shop” like work hours. It also established BC Tech U out in Surrey as an explicit move to foster the high-tech industry – you may question the economics of this, but not the motivation.
And why would anyone care what the unions thought about a non-union business?
Two, the Vancouver high-tech community would have gone into orbit over such a thing, and I heard nothing of it.
Three, do a little research into the histories of companies like Electronic Arts and Sierra Wireless. I reiterate, there was a lot of expansion of high-tech in BC in the 90′s. Regardless of what the business leaders might have thought of the NDP, they had no problems with expanding here.
If this was all over the media like you say, there should be a lot of links to the stories. Let’s see them. There are plenty of valid criticisms of the NDP regime – I have lots of them – but not this.
May 20th, 2007 at 10:48 am
Wouldn’t the 50% drop make you (and the rest of Vancouver) think the economy is is terrible shape?
It would be in terrible shape at that point, as it was when prices dropped that much in the early 80′s — which is why investors didn’t jump in and snap up houses at that time. And investors won’t be jumping in this time either, particularly as most investors specializing in RE will have already lost their shirts.
But there is a bottom for Vancouver RE prices, and 50% would be close enough to buy in for those who want to buy a long-term home rather than an investment. For such people with cash and good credit, there will be many excellent buying opportunities.
Even in a severe recession like 80′s, most people keep their jobs. Unemployment especially affected new hires — young adults with little experience and no job security.
Conversely, people who had jobs and money did very well for themselves at that time, as there were bargains to be had in all markets.
May 20th, 2007 at 10:56 am
Quite frankly, I don’t believe you.And if you’re referring to what some non-elected blowhards might have said, spare us.
LOL. It was in the media, much discussed. And that you were ignorant of it doesn’t mean it didn’t happen. It was in the early 90′s, and I don’t know how much of the info would be available online as the internet hadn’t yet gone mainstream.
I’m merely reporting what I know happened and have no interest in spending my time justifying it for you. Believe what you like; I really have no interest either way.
May 20th, 2007 at 10:59 am
Bottom line:
The NDP/ Liberal argument should be filed with:
the Olympics, running out of land, everyone wants to live here, it’s different this time…
And besides, Warren, Rennie the Great disagrees with you.
May 20th, 2007 at 11:11 am
Patriotz: If this was all over the media like you say, there should be a lot of links to the stories. Let’s see them.
LOL. Shows how little you remember the early 90′s. No one was posting news stories on the internet. People were still using TELNET and BBS’s. No wonder you don’t remember what else was going on.
I’m not going to visit the Vancouver Sun archives and look through microfiche; you can safely continue in your disbelief.
May 20th, 2007 at 12:27 pm
“But many other people invested in them, and cashed out at the right time.”
That is a zero sum game. For people to cash out, other bag holders had to buy in. The criticisms of tech stock overvaluation and misallocation were valid. The fact that some walked away wealthy does not change this fact.
“Its one thing to be aware of the risks in the market (housing, stock, job, whatever), and its another to be chicken little, afraid to take any chances or make any moves.”
So who are you callig Chicken Littles?
Our economy is hot, good on it. We should be happy, and presumably we are. Just the pronincial liberals don’t deserve credit, nor do the hard working people of B.C. Our good fortunes are due to factors outside of our control (resource prices). Resources are cyclical. By all means, accept the spoils of this cycle. But don’t forget about the flipside of cyclical industries. As discussed in the past, when affordability is poor at low rates in a hot economy, there is HUGE downside.
What is your beef with “negativity” anyways? Do you think it will jinx us, or are you tired of listening to it?
“I agree with you to the extent that prices are way beyond fundamentals, yet rents are tight and there seems to be some “other force” out there that the statistics don’t show.”
Yes, this one does concern me. If we don’t see some downwards pressure on rents soon, we may have to reevaluate those Statscan population growth numbers. Prices are still insane, of course.
“Also, I believe its freako who pointed out that rents are the true price that people are willing to pay for shelter.”
Yes, true in the sense that it is a spot price of PRESENT demand fo housing, and there are no subjective forwards looking valuations.
“The exorbitant price to purchase a home is based on the estimation of its future value, not any value you are getting from living there now (which is incredibly small).”
Yes, that is how it should be. Thus the markets expects sharp increases in rents. Or its just mispriced. In either case, look at rents at Sauder. Down in real terms since the early 70′s. Those numbers are not adjusted for densit increases, so not fair in that sense. I think SFH has a fair portion of validly priced in density increase potential.
“So what is causing it? Some suggestions:”
Personally, I believe that most of it can be explained by temporarily inelastic demand and the pushing affordability limits. We have gone beyond the “recommended” income requirements, to the absolute limits physical limits of affordability. If that is correct, further upside is severely limited, and downside is huge, especially if conventional limits once again become the norm.
May 20th, 2007 at 1:22 pm
there is unexplained evidence (not on this blog at least) which is inconsistent with the bubble theory. Namely there is extremely low rental vacancy rate in Greater Vancouver. How could it be with all the construction going on, people buying properties and moving out, and with the population statistics showing very little growth?
That is a puzzling question and I don’t have the answer. But a look at the CUER data (UBC Centre for Urban Economics and Real Estate) shows that vacancies were also very scarce just before the peaks of the 1980, 1990 and 1994 real estate booms.
David Baxter estimated that as many as 59% of downtown condos have been bought by individual investors. (Moratorium on conversions won’t end rental crunch). There are also about 25,000 secondary suites in Vancouver. Neither are counted in CMHC’s 0.7% vacancy rate.
May 20th, 2007 at 1:50 pm
I’ve said it before here re the “absence of vacancies” conundrum.
This is purely anecdotal but it makes sense to me.
In my neighbourhood 10-15% of available units are either in the process of being sold, under development application or currently being renovated/developed/demolished/built
I can’t speak for every neighbourhood but people are being evicted left right and centre around kits from small apt buildings and multi suite houses to make way for bigger developments. I’ve lived here for 5 years and this year the activity is almost equal to the previous 4 combined.
May 20th, 2007 at 2:02 pm
This is a wonderful weekend.
Never mind about the NDP vs. Liberals or about Olympics politics. This is the weekend we have been waiting for. The Best Place To Live With The Best Weatherâ„¢.
It’s a gardening paradise.
May 20th, 2007 at 2:11 pm
That last post was a note of bitterness, in case it wasn’t noticed.
The May long weekend marks the time for everyone with a nodding acquaintance with land to start planting.
Never mind. This is a REAl ESTATE PLACE. Nothing else matters.
May 20th, 2007 at 2:18 pm
Speaking of high tech sweatshops, I believe this term came up in early 1999 when the provincial government made high tech firms in BC exempt from overtime rules. As I recall, some union people did make pretty critical comments about digital sweatshops at this time in the media. The provincial government of the time was the NDP. I do read the media, and I do not recollect anything earlier about government resistance to making parts of BC into a silicon valley, though the idea was certainly bandied about a fair bit, and even promoted.
While I was not a fan of the NDP government, it was so unpopular in so many areas that people (including many media people) were inclined to blame it for everything under the sun, and it seems many still do.
May 20th, 2007 at 2:23 pm
> I can’t speak for every neighbourhood but people are being evicted left right and centre around kits from small apt buildings and multi suite houses to make way for bigger developments. I’ve lived here for 5 years and this year the activity is almost equal to the previous 4 combined < <
I’ve done time in Vancouver for the better part of 20 years, and it always was pretty crazy.
Now it’s off the richter scale. People talk…maybe it’s the real estate bubble…maybe it’s the upcoming Olympics…maybe it’s the influx of ‘new canadians’. But something has definitely changed.
The bulls think this is magnificent, everybody else just deals with the fallout.
May 20th, 2007 at 2:35 pm
While I was not a fan of the NDP government, it was so unpopular in so many areas that people (including many media people) were inclined to blame it for everything under the sun, and it seems many still do.
I even voted for them once, in my naive youth. I have no axe to grind, no reason to falsely disparage them by fabricating incidents from decades ago.
As for the ‘high-tech sweatshop’ timeline and associated media coverage, I clearly remember it being discussed at school when I was studying Bus. Admin at SFU, in the early 90′s. But I’ll debate it no further here, as I have no supporting evidence and my detractors consider their lack of memory sufficient evidence to the contrary.
May 20th, 2007 at 5:48 pm
It used to be the sociopath “usual suspects†often dredged out the old
“ we are the California of the Northâ€
argument in support of their fantasy that RE couldn’t crater here.
It seems, as of late, the same deceitful low life fraudulent, peddlers are staying away from references to California.
In fact, I noted they are using and old basic sales trick, which is to anticipate the objection and addressing themselves.
I also noticed the timing of those independent studies I had anticipated would be released.
May 20th, 2007 at 5:54 pm
I guess even beautiful cities have problems. I wonder if they will mention the theft of their equipment and footage in their coverage of Vancouver?
Hope they’re enjoying our beautiful weekend weather right now, its such a shame when hype runs head first into reality.
May 21st, 2007 at 12:58 am
LOL. Shows how little you remember the early 90′s. No one was posting news stories on the internet.
Um, are you saying that there is no information on the Web about anything that happened prior to 1995 or so? You have no facts to back your argument, period. This blog is not the place for people who say “It’s true because I say so”. That’s the profession of people like David Lereah.
The fact is that the BC NDP government, like every other government in Canada, publicly advocated the growth of high-tech employment, and indeed growth took place. Whether or not their policies were optimal is of course debatable.
And getting back to the topic of this blog:
But there is a bottom for Vancouver RE prices, and 50% would be close enough to buy in for those who want to buy a long-term home rather than an investment.
Of course, market bottoms are the best time to buy for investment, rather than just for a long-term home.
Reason being, of course, is that the best time to buy anything as an investment is precisely when everyone else thinks it’s a bad idea.
May 21st, 2007 at 4:31 am
” Hope they’re enjoying our beautiful weekend weather right now, its such a shame when hype runs head first into reality.”
That was the funniest news story I’ve seen in ages.
A strictly Nelson moment… Ha-Ha.
May 21st, 2007 at 4:42 am
I forgot to mention…about the stolen TV cameras.
They won’t turn up in any garage sale, or flea market or pawn shop.
They’re being used for a higher form of pimping.
Coming soon: “Debbie Does The Best Place To Live With The Best Weatherâ„¢”
Sweet.
May 21st, 2007 at 7:04 am
In case anyone forgot, BC’s economy was the only one to shrink in GDP during the tech boom of the late 90s.
May 21st, 2007 at 7:12 am
As for the IT jobs, comapare your #s to how many were created in China or India.
I recommend reading “The World is Flat”. It has a lot of great points about the “threat” of China and India, and globalization in general. The system isn’t perfect, but this economic interconnectedness does a lot to foster freedoms, peace, and raise the living standards of everyone in the world who joins in.
May 21st, 2007 at 7:17 am
freakoWhat is your beef with “negativity” anyways? Do you think it will jinx us, or are you tired of listening to it?
Just tired of listening to it, right now, since like-it-or-not, we’re in probably the late stages of a huge boom. If you’re down on it now, what will you be like when times are rought? Its one thing to prepare for a possible downturn, and another to predict it around every corner.
further upside is severely limited, and downside is huge, especially if conventional limits once again become the norm.
If I remember correctly, “conventional limits” when it comes to Vancouver are still high compared to other Canadian cities. I don’t doubt a correction is coming, but if the economy continues on its current pace I think it will be a very slow slide.
May 21st, 2007 at 7:22 am
“..the best time to buy anything as an investment is precisely when everyone else thinks it’s a bad idea.”
It’s amazing how this appears to be so widely known, yet so rarely followed.
May 21st, 2007 at 7:35 am
RE prices are so far removed from economic fundamentals that when the bubble pops, economic fundamentals, even if they are good, will remain relatively irrelevant.
May 21st, 2007 at 7:46 am
“Whether or not their policies were optimal is of course debatable.”
Debatable? Under the NDP, British Columbia plunged to the bottom of the provincial rankings in almost every vital economic variable, from growth to employment to to migration to income. Today, we’re near the top.
That anyone can consider the cack-handed, moronic rule by those socialist imbeciles “debatable” is amazing.
I moved back here in no small part because the NDP were removed from power, and I’m sure thousands of businesspeople did the same.
That anyone could conceivably hand control of our economy over to Carole James, Jenny Sims and their coterie of happy travellers just beggars belief.
May 21st, 2007 at 8:01 am
Thanks Warren Aaron, because of you, now I can see how an elephant is like a tree.
Tick Tock, Tick Tock
May 21st, 2007 at 8:03 am
Rainy Long-Weekend Vancouver RE Conundrum.
(Test your wits!)
Consider this high-end property:
4524 LANGARA AVE, on the Westside.
According to the official MLS 2006 sales records publication, it sold for $2,350,000 on October 17, 2006.
However, it is now relisted as V646680,
at an asking price of $2,525,000.
We could have a chat here about whether this resale represents a flip attempt (and the questionable math involved) OR whether this represents a quick resale after buyer’s remorse.
BUT, that is not the point of this post:
When you read the current realtor ad copy on MLS, you find this:
“modern style home custom designed for the site and present owners by Lassere Architects.”
How can that be?
There has been no recent reno or rebuild.
The current owner bought this house exactly as it is now 6 months ago.
Or did they?
Any ideas?
May 21st, 2007 at 9:43 am
It’s amazing how this appears to be so widely known, yet so rarely followed.
That’s why the stock market averages 10% returns while individual investors in the market average 3.5%.
May 21st, 2007 at 11:07 am
warren said: That’s why the stock market averages 10% returns while individual investors in the market average 3.5%.
An interesting statistic. One that will, of course, depend on the definition of the term ‘individual investor’.
Could you give us the source, please, warren?
May 21st, 2007 at 2:15 pm
Warren, your company hires people at $55,000 fresh out of school? Can you provide a link to a job posting?
May 21st, 2007 at 3:25 pm
Warren: I agree that rental supply in GVRD has been tight for a few years, but prices have been reluctant to go up except for the past year. For a market composed of numerous small buyers and sellers, I find that interesting. I guess the mild climate of Vancouver makes living on the streets practical, allowing an extremely small vacancy rate to persist for a long time.
The economy in BC might be great, but a large part can be attributed to construction related employment. Not that there’s anything wrong with it, but bubbles can collapsed on its own weight. The construction driven economies of Inland Empire in California is one example. As for IT replacing forestry in BC, it’s quite unlikely. Being geographically remote, and small in population, I don’t see why Vancouver can become an IT capital.
May 21st, 2007 at 3:35 pm
craigpbbrett: In 2004 election, the BC liberals, despite having a booming economy, only won 40% of total vote. If economy is the primary concern of voters, Al Gore, as the vice president during the booming 90′s in the US, would have easily won the election. The BC liberals are not as secure as many people think, strong economy or not. All you need is one scandal, no matter how minor, and we could be back to NDP rule for a while.
May 21st, 2007 at 4:07 pm
On the news1130 radio, I’m hearing a lot of pumping on RE. One specific example is “how boomers are changing demographics” as a news segment, citing an expert from Coldwell Banker. The claim was that net migration to BC is 200k annually. I wonder where they get this number, or is that a “projection”?
It’s said to see the “boomers are coming” nonsense being used in Vancouver, after it’s been used so many times in California, Florida, Nevada, Carolina, etc.
May 21st, 2007 at 5:23 pm
condohype asks:
Warren, your company hires people at $55,000 fresh out of school? Can you provide a link to a job posting?
Warren is full of BS, and won’t be replying.
Just like the time he got busted bragging about how much his East Van house appreciated.
May 21st, 2007 at 5:55 pm
“If you’re down on it now, what will you be like when times are rought? Its one thing to prepare for a possible downturn, and another to predict it around every corner.
“
Well we are all entitled to our opinion, but I think your comments are bullsh*t. If RE wasn’t priced for perfection, it would be a case of the usual easy come easy go that comes with having a cyclical economy.
You seem to imply negativity for the sake of negativity. The more positive news, the more the negativity. Again, your opinion, but I think you are wrong. In a sense, things ARE different this time. There were large feedback loops between prices and the economy on the way up. Why shouldn’t it be a concern on the way down?
In a sense, I feel that our “strong” economy is built on a house of cards. I am not “negative” because things are going well. I am “negative” because I don’t think things are going as well as we think they are. Definitely not as well as our RE prices seem to indicate. That is my opinion, and it has nothing to do with raining on B.C.’s parade. If I turn out to be right, was it still “negativity”?
May 21st, 2007 at 6:00 pm
“The claim was that net migration to BC is 200k annually. “
Off by a factor of 4, according to these guys anyways:
http://tinyurl.com/2x6emm
“On average, the Council expected total net migration to BC to rise in 2007 from 2006 levels, with forecasts averaging 44,841 people for 2007 compared to 42,973 people in 2006. ”
May 21st, 2007 at 6:01 pm
“That’s why the stock market averages 10% returns while individual investors in the market average 3.5%. “
No way.
May 21st, 2007 at 6:17 pm
5 YEAR 126%/27 YEAR 200%
hey you can’t be loser if you do not buy.
some one did not lose since 2001.not even since 1981 keep on arguing because people who have money they are not realy taking any chance to jump into grab a peace.if you indulge your self in arguments you can’t buy anyway because buying will make you loser for your argue.
I wish best of luck to those who are opposing r.e.boom,wish your kids will forgive you when they will be 18.
May 21st, 2007 at 8:45 pm
“PUCK REBOUND SCORE A GOAL”
there was a deckline since last quater of 2006.
we saw some dipty doo since jan 2007.
but in april 2007 puck was rebound some body shoot that to score a big goal.
GO R.E. GO
I think the pope will explain more to users later.
May 22nd, 2007 at 5:19 am
Warren, your company hires people at $55,000 fresh out of school? Can you provide a link to a job posting?
Warren is full of BS, and won’t be replying.
Yes, I’m really going to expose myself and my company to random people like you, who obviously have an axe to grind.
Suffice to say its true. I’m talking people who have taken 2 years at BCIT, nevermind a full university degree. Maybe you can stop flipping burgers and make some money.
Just like the time he got busted bragging about how much his East Van house appreciated.
I don’t own a house in east van. Get your story straight.
May 22nd, 2007 at 5:23 am
No way.
I read it on a financial blog somewhere, can’t remember but it stuck with me. The point is that most people tend to jump in and out of the market at the wrong time. Which is why I try a long term strategy.
May 22nd, 2007 at 7:37 am
Warren hows about a hint as to what industry or
particular services the business provides so we can
get an idea of what your talking about. I’m sure that
you can reveal that with out fearing villagers with pitch forks storming your lunch room.
May 22nd, 2007 at 8:02 am
Hi Jade,
The industry is roughly IT, somewhat specialized. Most of our business is done in the US. Personally I wish we weren’t hiring people right out of school, but the available worker pool is thin right now.
May 22nd, 2007 at 8:29 am
I think EA pays that much for people straight out of school but there are good reasons why that isn’t as good a deal as you might think. I went through the EA grinder in the early to late 90′s and frankly although the video game industry is shiny it doesn’t leave you with much of a life.
May 22nd, 2007 at 8:38 am
Vancouver real estate city thats true.
TOP 10 R.E.
Hong Kong, Tokyo, New York, Moscow, Seoul, London, Mumbai, Shanghai, Caracas (Venezuela) and Paris (in order of their position), according to a study by International Human Resource organisation ECA International.
Vancouver have more room in year to come.
Vancouver is real estate city found to be true.
May 22nd, 2007 at 9:00 am
rentingsucks,
I’ve heard the same from a few people at EA. Ditto Microsoft, although the pay is better. Both are great on a resume though I’d imagine.
May 22nd, 2007 at 9:40 am
“…but the available worker pool is thin right now”
company i worked for last year had multiple candidates for each job posting. i’m pretty sure there were multiple candidates for the job i’ve currently got as well.
maybe your company’s just too picky? maybe you want people who know version 10.x when version 8.x will do just as well?
besides, with all the people moving to BC to see the 2010 olympics, some of them have to have the qualifications you want
May 22nd, 2007 at 9:56 am
maybe your company’s just too picky?
I’m speaking from experience because I have to work with these new hires. Maybe our HR department needs a better process, who knows. It fits with the Sun article last week about the largest ever number of IT jobs available in the province.
May 22nd, 2007 at 10:59 am
“I’m speaking from experience …”
Good for you. But so am I. The question is, whose experience is more typical? Did the people you work with actually tell you how much they were offered?
“It fits with the Sun article last week “
The Sun also implies our esteemed MLAs had “no choice” but to accept a 29% pay hike, but I’m not about to swallow that hook, line, and sinker.
Not picking a fight with you, by the way. just curious.
anyway, think we’ve wandered far enough from RE…
May 22nd, 2007 at 11:53 am
On the salary side: The company at Kamloops that my gf works at, pay 40k a year plus company vehicle for people fresh out of a 8 month BCIT program. And the work hour is 40 hr a week, union shop, time and half for overtime. And they are having trouble getting new employees, therefore management is trying to convice the union to let them boost new hire wages without boosting senior employee pay. To be fair, it’s in Kamloops, and it’s a trade. But it’s pretty good for people who were waiting tables a year ago, and don’t have grade 12 classes needed to get into 4 year university.
I think the white collar industries are still fairly picky. The HR department of Warren’s company probably require reasonable grades(average to above average), decent english, and North American education. These requirements alone would probably mean a thin worker pool in IT.
May 22nd, 2007 at 1:08 pm
$55K for specialized IT just out of school is about right, assuming warren wants to hire an above average candidate. There are more IT job openings than above average candidates but likely less IT job openings than all possible candidates.
May 22nd, 2007 at 1:49 pm
In 2000, i made $40,000/yr right out of BCIT 2-year computer systems technology program. Average for new grads at that time was around $41,500/yr.
It’s not a huge stretch to imagine that 7 years later, coming from the tech meltdown to today’s brisk tech environment, and a more specialized program than mine, wages could exceed $50,000.
May 22nd, 2007 at 2:46 pm
richardGood for you. But so am I. The question is, whose experience is more typical?
Well, I prefaced my comment with “anecdotally”, since that’s my limited experience. The company I work for is expanding quickly and still has a great profit margin, I don’t really know how they compete in the local market for employees in terms of salary and other perks.
And some did tell me what they were offered, since they had similar experience to others hired, I assumed that was an average.
May 22nd, 2007 at 2:48 pm
Warren: You changed your story in a material way. You first claimed
“These are all university educated jobs in the $55k+ range for people fresh out of school.â€
But that aside, the mystery of IT is quickly disappearing.
People can be easily trained, it’s not rocket science, the intelligence, and education level required is not like it used to be.
In my own company we often train our own. They usually go from inside sales, account receivables/payables to IT without much difficulty in the transition.
As long as there is a couple real brains on call, and can hook up remotely, the systems works with no problems.
I think the IT wages will end up much like the consumer electronics repair techs- clean jobs, but won’t pay much.
Obsolescence I think it’s called.
TICK TOCK, TICK TOCK
May 22nd, 2007 at 2:57 pm
tulip,
How exactly did my story change? The jobs I was referring to were the 150 or so my company has hired in the last 12 months. I started by saying University educated, but then amended that to include 2 yr diploma programs from BCIT, since we’ve hired a lot from there more recently.
Your rambling message doesn’t go anywhere except to predict the demise of something else that is currently going strong. IT is everywhere. Just the same way that the job of a COBOL programmer or “mainframe system operator” isn’t in demand anymore, IT will change, but there will always be high paying jobs for the brightest minds.
Can we ask what industry you are in?
May 22nd, 2007 at 3:43 pm
The IT market changes; it always does. (Doing my best Rob Chipman impression.)
But realistically you have to keep yourself upstream of current technology and be adaptive. If it was just a matter of cranking out code your job would be shipped off to China before you could blink.
Writing HTML websites and writing C++ or C# are very different things with very different levels of difficulty.
May 22nd, 2007 at 3:44 pm
“Can we ask what industry you are in?â€
Warren you know from my posts I have diagnosed the RE peddlers as “sociopathsâ€
can I assume, from your choice of a plural pronoun that you suffer from multiple personality disorder?
You say:
“IT will change, but there will always be high paying jobs for the brightest minds.â€
I agree: as posted:
“As long as there is a couple real brains on call, and can hook up remotely, the systems works with no problems.â€
As for what industry I work in :
Remember these are your words to me:
“Maybe you can stop flipping burgers and make some money.â€
May 22nd, 2007 at 4:25 pm
Warren,
If your company is looking for new hires and want experienced IT personnel, I know some! Some of them used to work for big multi-national corporations before, but when they downsized their IT departments and sub-contracted them out to EDS, they got pink slips. They are now working as sub-contractors and not making much at all. Would me nice if they can make at least $55k.
Any leads?
May 22nd, 2007 at 4:37 pm
Warren is somewhat correct..
I.T is everywhere, but it depends upon who you are talking to.
Salary for any experienced technical personnel in today’s market starts anywhere from $44k to $55k. People with special skills these days are job shopping. Despite the demise of the tech crash, IT personnel are still in demand, but the needs have changed. What’s different now is that, you don’t get paid as much if you’re an average joe IT. If you work for EDS or Accenture, then you could become the lowest common denominator. Like any technical job, you are paid for your unique abilities and expertise that some companies look for. The days that you have some basic I.T and computer knowledge is over. Many ex-I.T guys can do that.
May 22nd, 2007 at 7:55 pm
“The point is that most people tend to jump in and out of the market at the wrong time. Which is why I try a long term strategy.
“
If the individual investors earn 3.5% and the market averages 10% why bother with long term. Just do the opposite of what the typical individual investor would do. If stocks earn 3.5% when the typical investor is in, then they must return 13.5% when he is out in order to average10%. (using lazy math and ignoring compounding).
May 22nd, 2007 at 11:17 pm
“Warren is somewhat correct..”
Maybe not. Major outsourcing of IT jobs in the US isn’t a great portend for future IT job in BC. I know, it’s different here.
But, not that different.
May 23rd, 2007 at 7:47 am
“Writing HTML websites and writing C++ or C# are very different things with very different levels of difficulty.”
How much more difficult is it?
Some of the people who are in IT now overseas were tending goats only 3 years ago.
As Warren points out you can learn this at BCIT.
I say you can easily learn it on the job.
May 23rd, 2007 at 8:27 am
“Maybe not. Major outsourcing of IT jobs in the US isn’t a great portend for future IT job in BC. I know, it’s different here.”
Actually, if you are a small business, and i understand there are a lot in bc, how likely would you be to outsource?
May 23rd, 2007 at 8:28 am
Some of the people who are in IT now overseas were tending goats only 3 years ago.
OK. References for this? China and India aren’t exactly backwaters. They’ve had complete university systems and have had for quite sometime. If a person in IT was tending goats 3 years ago maybe it was his summer job.
As Warren points out you can learn this at BCIT.
I say you can easily learn it on the job.
So why does the job market in general prefer people with training as opposed to people off the street if you can easily learn stuff on the job. Would you hire someone to fix your car that was learning on the job?
May 23rd, 2007 at 8:42 am
“How much more difficult is it?”
straight html is not very difficult, but static webpages aren’t going to get you very far. You might want to consider the infrastructure, security, design, testing, and all of that. Fitting all those pieces together is what’s difficult, and as is maintaining a certain degree of unity in the whole thing.
“Some of the people who are in IT now overseas were tending goats only 3 years ago. “
Did you know very many of them? More likely three years ago they were in university. Yes, they have universities overseas.
“I say you can easily learn it on the job.”
Being good at IT is just like anything else. It takes time and practice, and a little bit of aptitude would not hurt.
May 23rd, 2007 at 10:17 am
Tulip,
Just in this thread alone you have insulted two industries, re agents (sociopaths) and IT ( goat herders) which is also a thinly veiled bigot statement. You have called Warren (who usually contributes in a postive way) a bullshitter and compared him to Aaron and made up a crap story about his fictitious East Van house. Wtf is the matter with you? Perhaps some anger management courses?
I think Warren has shown exceptional restraint in not telling you where you can put your two lips, and then signing off with tick tock, tick tock to really send you over the edge.
Psychology plays a big part of this scenario but there definately is a fine line between entertainment and rude.
May 23rd, 2007 at 12:04 pm
“Actually, if you are a small business, and i understand there are a lot in bc, how likely would you be to outsource?”
You couldn’t. But you would pay a lot less to remain competitive; or die a horrible ignomious death.
Just because you’re small doesn’t mean globalisation leaves you untouchable.
May 23rd, 2007 at 12:28 pm
“So why does the job market in general prefer people with training as opposed to people off the street if you can easily learn stuff on the job. Would you hire someone to fix your car that was learning on the job?”
There used to be a quaint system in place that was called an apprenticeship program. That was back when dinosaurs roamed the earth.
Today, it’s more expedient for corporations to have future slaves pay for their own applied skills. It doesn’t necessarily make it better system, but one that leaves a worker heavily indebted before he even gets out of the gate.
And btw, automotive technicians still have years to put in before they get journeyman status – and they do ‘learn on the job’.
I’ve met quite a few people that have been grandfathered into their present work, and they’re prefectly competent. If they applied for the same job today, they’d never get it without the appropriate degree. It’s called credentialism. Keeps the serfs fighting over whatever crumbs are on the table.
I can see why people prefer that method of getting work done – debt rules.
May 23rd, 2007 at 1:19 pm
As Warren points out you can learn this at BCIT.
I say you can easily learn it on the job.
If you are an employer, who are you going to hire? Or, better yet, who are you going to pay more to start?
May 23rd, 2007 at 4:58 pm
Hello Streel: RE: “Tick Tock, Tick Tockâ€. I am not exactly sure but many of your fellow bulls are repulsed by it.
Perhaps I should show some restraint and use “Tick Tock, Tick Tockâ€, more sparingly.
I have noticed some find it so disgusting it sends them into an uncontrollable rage, so much so, that I would fear for my safety if it were not for the anonymity of the net.
Do you have a possible explanation for this?
Warren, our organically grown IT staff seems to be more loyal.
May 23rd, 2007 at 5:31 pm
Tulip. You’re cool.
Illegitimi non carborundum.
May 23rd, 2007 at 6:28 pm
“I would fear for my safety if it were not for the anonymity of the net.
Do you have a possible explanation for this?”
I have no explanation for this. I was referring to your past post where you gave someone shit for using the phrase and asked them to refrain as it was yours.
“but many of your fellow bulls are repulsed by it.”
I am far from being a bull and am firmly in the bear camp. Doesn’t all this blogging infringe on your stockpiling of can goods and ammo?
May 23rd, 2007 at 9:55 pm
I work for a “small” BC business that outsources. I tell the techs in India what to do even though they are more skilled than I am. Heh.
May 24th, 2007 at 7:51 am
streel,
I try not to waste my time with tulip, since he really doesn’t contribute much except name-calling and overused cliches.
patiently,
We’ve had some experience outsourcing to India, with mixed results. I’m not opposed to it, but I think a lot of North American businesses jumped in too fast, and then pulled back after some unexpected consequences. Its here to stay, but I don’t think its a bad thing.
Friedman’s “The World is Flat” makes some interesting arguments linking the global supply chain to increased standards of living, and its role in promoting world peace. The only “unstable” nations out there have completely closed economies.
May 24th, 2007 at 6:34 pm
What? I didn’t know the US was a closed economy?
Although I am pretty gloomy about the future of many North Americans (compared to the recent past), I have more of a appreciation for some benefits of outsourcing. We’ll see what happens when the economy here slows down, and people get a little more bothered about the exported jobs.
May 24th, 2007 at 7:42 pm
patiently,
Sorry I meant “unstable” in terms of their military intentions – the North Koreas, and most of the Middle East.
I think when things get tough in the US there will be a lot of talk about deportation, and not worker amnesty as there is now.
May 24th, 2007 at 7:51 pm
“Friedman’s “The World is Flat” makes some interesting arguments linking the global supply chain to increased standards of living,
Agreed. It is a win win all around. Unfortunately, the finer points of this pushed aside by self-serving arguments for protectionism and third world rights. What other topic can bring the nationalistic right, unions and anti-poverty activists to have a common goal?
“and its role in promoting world peace. The only “unstable” nations out there have completely closed economies. “
That is exaclty what I was getting at last week with my pitch for Reuven Brenner’s views regarding free capital markets
May 25th, 2007 at 6:22 am
Unfortunately, the finer points of this pushed aside by self-serving arguments for protectionism and third world rights. What other topic can bring the nationalistic right, unions and anti-poverty activists to have a common goal?
Don’t get me started on “anti-poverty activitists” who “know what’s best for poor countries”.
In the US, I’m afraid this type of free trade will take a step backwards in the inevitable recession to come. It will, as usual, get blamed for the economic problems.
May 25th, 2007 at 7:54 am
In conclusion, we are a real estate city when prices are going up. But then what are we when prices are going down? Welfare state?
Of course we are, you hit the nail on the head. We’re a have-not province that has temporarily popped its head up due to a commodities (natural gas) boom that has nothing to do with the people or the skill of the workforce in this province. Our real economy is based on dope, mainly. Amazing that some people think there’s much else going on, other than local businesses that exist by necessity but couldn’t compete anywhere else (except restaurants, possibly). And our dope is great. I’m proud of that, seriously – I smoke a bit of dope like any other genuine raised-in-BC dude.