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van-realestate-crash
van-realestate-crash
13 years ago

I don't know why we feed the troll, he deletes comments off his blog, when he doesn't like what others posts.

freako
freako
13 years ago

"That was a remarkably well-written post by SATV. How much of his usual fractured bluster is a put-on, I wonder? "Very inconsistent. I think babelfish goes down from time to time, so this person has to mangle the English manually, which can be a tedious task.

CBB
CBB
13 years ago

SATV said -"While the insurance premium is a one-time charge, it is typically added to the mortgage amount and subject to compounding interest.as far as I understand this ratio can be calculate this way." That was a remarkably well-written post by SATV. How much of his usual fractured bluster is a put-on, I wonder?

satv
satv
13 years ago

sorry from deseprate "seller"

satv
satv
13 years ago

jadeup side market is mostly condo market,because of house price's are too costly so people definitely going to grab a piece of condo just to put them self in.Vancouver has recently become a paradise city of the world,we also have a town that's going to become heven around 2009 this town is called "gastown" this area is in transition.because of high price in west vancouver,so gastown and north vancouver giving tough fight to west,stabalizing sales and price in the wv.till end of this year north and gastown will slide upward to much that will make people belive that west vancouver prices are level or low then after jan.15 all of the vancouver will start going up agian smoothly.around 2009 be will be out of construction,congestion,and stress as well,then we will discover brand new Vancouver.lowest price in november are not guranteed,… Read more »

van-realestate-crash
van-realestate-crash
13 years ago

Some studies are for discussion on the Bill Good Show, The Province and The Vancouver Sun.Then there are studies, which are not intended for the use of marketing, but for decision making.These expensive and confidential studies indicate, beyond any doubt, that the Vancouver RE market is already a disaster.

Jade East
Jade East
13 years ago

satv Does that mean your going to put more skinin the game in November?If so.What market segment do you see the most upsideand why?

satv
satv
13 years ago

Grant I don't have any cycle, its just food for thought when some one expect a crash.Vancouver is doing excellent no need to pull any rugs.crash,bubble,ghost does not exist any more and vancouver will countinue to grow at fast pace.I would say best time to buy again will be november 2007 another chance to stay in.

grant
grant
13 years ago

Satv where does your seemingly arbitrary 30-year cycle # come from?

satv
satv
13 years ago

Remember the market peaked out in 1981.then market should be peaked out in 2011 and crash in 2012.then again 2041 and crash in 2042,just to keep 30 ratio or cycle.I think it is good to buy anytime because after crash another crash does not happen till next 30 year.so something that is 350k today will be worth 2.5 million what a crash.no body will ever sell their property again if crash is that cool.sky rocketing price will become space rocketing till then.

patriotz
patriotz
13 years ago

I expect a crash.Remember the market peaked out in 1981 and started declining when the economy was still looking good. The recession hit in 1982 after a year of declines and delivered the coup de grace.All the ducks are lined up for a bloodbath in Vancouver yet nothing has happened yet. Once the US officially goes into recession (1q 2008 by my bet), the rout will be on. Or some other event may trigger it sooner. Or the market may just exhaust itself like in 1981, or south of the border in 2006.

satv
satv
13 years ago

but we're especially vulnerableno we have solid firewall protection,and spam control with pop up blockers,so we wont let it pop up.

beta
beta
13 years ago

I also think the crash will move quickly once it starts. People are over-extended on credit and leveraged speculation while maintaining a negative savings rate, and they'll be screwed once the appreciation machine even flat-lines. The imminent recession in the US will take a lot of countries down with it, but we're especially vulnerable, and once the crash begins there, no one here will be taken seriously if they try to spin our dropping prices as a temporary dip (though I expect Freako's right in expecting some to attempt it).

HADENOUGH
HADENOUGH
13 years ago

I think it is going to hit hard and fast.Look at the U.S. It was not a slow decline.

rentah
rentah
13 years ago

Agree, freako, and LOL about your waiting award.

freako
freako
13 years ago

"I'm more inclined to believe the whole house of cards will suddenly collapse at some point. ""I'm leaning toward your assessment patiently, the whole thing will fall apart real fast and it will be very unexpected. "I will have to join in this as well. I don't know if a rapid decline is probable, but it is definitely much much more likely than expected. Why?Precisely because it is not expected. I have railed against this bubble long enought, but one of the key causes are some of the old wives tales circulating that RE doesn't go down. That, of course, holds true until the tale in itself causes people to throw caution into the wind, and abandon common sense.The related topic I have railed against is that there are no mainstream critics of high valuations. Not in industry, not in… Read more »

rentah
rentah
13 years ago

mohican, I'm also now leaning towards a big dislocation at some point. A threshold of some sort (readiness of banks to lend is the most likely) will be crossed and buyers will dry up while sellers surge. Perhaps in the Fall. But still think June may have been a top.

mohican
mohican
13 years ago

I'm leaning toward your assessment patiently, the whole thing will fall apart real fast and it will be very unexpected.

Patiently Waiting
Patiently Waiting
13 years ago

I thought that if the housing market went into several years of slow decline, it would be rather quiet. Nobody would want to talk about it. Just a silent, painful standoff between buyers and sellers.I'm more inclined to believe the whole house of cards will suddenly collapse at some point. I'm not sure when because I think it will result from a complex series of international financial crises. Just a guess…

mold city
mold city
13 years ago

Any thoughts on when the crash will actually happen?I don't expect a crash, I expect years of decline with lots of noise on the way down.

mold city
mold city
13 years ago

I see Canfor is blaming the US housing slump for their financial woes.

satv
satv
13 years ago

in greater vancouver

satv
satv
13 years ago

had enough people have to start somewhere, then rest is easy lets say you can manage 25% then save.on 650.000 (20,150 saving)on 380.000 (11,780 saving)on 300.000 (9330 saving)and there is additional saving for first time buyers saving of almost 6,500 on ptt under 375,000 purchase.despite all these, there are more than 30,000 units are being sold every year in canada.one can not be advice to buy or sell.but our needs make us buyers and sellers.

HADENOUGH
HADENOUGH
13 years ago

My husband found this on ReutersReal Estate: Two-thirds of investment managers showed little enthusiasm about the Canadian real estate sector. "There has been so much publicity regarding the glut of supply and high-risk mortgage lending problems in the U.S.," said Hicks, "and with the strong likelihood of higher financing costs, both south and north of the border, managers are more bearish about Canadian real estate."

satv
satv
13 years ago

ptt+hr(high ratio mortgage) the pope this sun article did not calculate high ratio mortgage amount and article also does not mention that first time buyers are exempted from amount under 375k as promise in bc budget so that is little confusing.there was law that mortgage amount over 75% will be count as high ratio but that has been changed now to over 80%.High-ratio mortgage insurance will still be required for mortgages greater than 80 per cent of the home's value.Those borrowing 80 to 85 per cent of the purchase price pay a premium of 1.75 per cent of the amount borrowed, rising to 2.0 per cent on 85-90 per cent, 2.75 per cent on 90-95 per cent, 2.9 per cent if they are borrowing with a five-per-cent down payment, and 3.1 per cent if they have no down payment.While the… Read more »