Friday Free-for-all

Here’s the open topic for Friday July 6th – Talk about anything to do with the Vancouver Real estate market here. A few topics I’ve noticed this week:

– June Stats released, SFH benchmark price of $717,715
– Storage locker business booming
Edmonton prices fall and listings boom
– US home equity loan payments not coming in on time.

What are you seeing out there? Post your news, anecdotes and links here!

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jesse
jesse
13 years ago

"While Rob is 'busy', the posts fly."Certainly the site's comment inventory is at historically high levels.

patriotz
patriotz
13 years ago

It's not fair to access the future of USD by the debt in the private sector. If the money is borrowed from foreigners (i.e. China, Japan, etc) it certainly is.It's the same taxpayers who are on the hook, although not necessarily in the same proportions.On the bright side, it looks like the housing/MBS meltdown may make some of that debt go away, which is something the government can't do with its own debt. Not in nominal terms anyway.

Swirlyman
Swirlyman
13 years ago

Why not build a bunch of subdivisions of hurricane-proof buildings? The extra you pay for hurricane-proofing should be easily made up for by the currently low property prices there. As far as the rest of your 41 trillion, I'd look into buying up as much of Japan as possible. And properties in the United Arab Emirates.

satv
satv
13 years ago

Swirlyman I am scared to buy some thing in florida ,you know that hard work from those architects,engineers and all that from lobours will be washed away by hurricane katrina charlie.so we can not buy damn what to do with 41tr…..

markx
markx
13 years ago

"That's complete nonsense. Total debt/GDP is about 3.8 today, the highest in history."It's not fair to access the future of USD by the debt in the private sector. How the private sector choose to raise money is its own business, whether it's done through stock market or debt market. What is alarming, though, is the extremely large portion of US government debt held by foreigners. The massive current account deficit has contributed to the relatively tame inflation and stable USD. If the world decides to cut by on USD reserve growth, watch for massive inflation.

notBearNoBull
notBearNoBull
13 years ago

Rob's Number said""It's bs numbers put together buy a salesman, who is too cheap to advertise through regular channels."You are just one classy person aren't you? You denigrate Rob, lift "bs" numbers from him…doesn't that make your blog full of bs?Is it your business how Rob chooses to market himself?

Swirlyman
Swirlyman
13 years ago

satv, for your $41 trillion I would strongly advise spending in Florida and California, not B.C.Weather is nicer, and you can buy many more and nicer waterfront penthouse condos for the same money.

satv
satv
13 years ago

oh yeah hoon excuse me peoples,I have tonz of bags on my shoulders un loading four of 60 feet trailers since morning got 1000 employee to assist me finaly we have unloaded all of those trailers.now its time to tell you this stuff we have unloaded is money.count after count we have come to conclusion this is not 100k or 200k,not even millions or billions. this money is a total of $41 trillions.specially made for dock sitters by their hard working parents(stock sitters).these dock sitters will spend this money to buy more real estate.now we have to figure out what and what to buy lets say we buy this 18.2 millions condo then there are some in the list for 7.5,5,and some 3 and 2 millions.lets say total of 31.2 millions now we have to decide where else we can… Read more »

freako
freako
13 years ago

Bubbletracking blog are featuring a home in Las Vegas that is LISTED at a price down 53% from Nov 2005 purchases price. Cherry picked, I know, but surely a harbinger of where things are going. This one foreclosed and the lender is becoming increasingly aggressive:http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/–the bank listed the home on the MLS for $459,900 in March of this year.–Price Reduced: 04/06/07 — $459,900 to $444,900–Price Reduced: 04/25/07 — $444,900 to $429,900–Price Reduced: 06/06/07 — $429,900 to $409,900–Price Reduced: 07/04/07 — $409,900 to $379,900.And the darn thing hasn't even sold yet.

freako
freako
13 years ago

" If you include them, the US debt works out to about $500,000 per household."That is an alarming number indeed. But I think it is an oversimplification to consider underfunding debt in the traditional sense. It means that the government does not have enough socked away to meet FUTURE obligations. I think they are treading on dangerous ground, but if the economy keeps growing fast, that may not be an issue.If it doesn't, big big problems all around. The problem I see is that both the government and population at large have taken future prosperity for granted when making their consumption decisions.That would be like an individual borrowing today and spending today the raises he expects to get in the future. Moving future income to the present isn't a bad idea in general. But the problem is that we are… Read more »

patriotz
patriotz
13 years ago

In the much more important measure of debt-to-GDP, the US ratio is much lower than it has been historicallyThat's complete nonsense. Total debt/GDP is about 3.8 today, the highest in history.Government debt/GDP peaked during WWII, but private sector debt – both consumer and corporate – was way, way lower back then.The recent data all point to stronger growth after a bottom in the last quarter.Who says so? Hank Paulson?

craigpbbrett
craigpbbrett
13 years ago

"You must believe the official numbers. Have you factored in the unfunded liabilities of Medicare and Social Security?" If you want to move the goalposts, fine, how would the unfunded liabilities of Europe and Japan stack up, considering they're much more heavily invested in social spending while having a rapidly worsening demographic profile.As for standard debt-to-GDP, Japan is at about 100%, France and Germany in the 60s and Italy over a 100.The US in comparison is in the 40s. And as mentioned before, the deficit is shrinking so quickly that a surplus is expected in several years.The US just emerged from an expected sluggish quarter with strong job growth, a soaring services index and benign inflation; all of which indicate the Fed and most economists were right in forecasting a mid-year pickup.The US has problems but the data doesn't support… Read more »

Clarke
Clarke
13 years ago

"While I'm bear on real estate, I'm generally bullish on the US economy. The recent data all point to stronger growth after a bottom in the last quarter."According to what I read, the US would have already been in a recession the last year and a half were it not for domestic spending that seemed to be based upon consumers using home equity. Other sources take into account the US current account and federal deficits and refer to the US as a third world country with nuclear weapons. While I would not go that far, I would not be too bullish.

solipsist
solipsist
13 years ago

"You must believe the official numbers. Have you factored in the unfunded liabilities of Medicare and Social Security? If you include them, the US debt works out to about $500,000 per household."That is astounding. I believe the Canadian debt is about $40k per person.

Alpha_Bear
Alpha_Bear
13 years ago

"In the much more important measure of debt-to-GDP, the US ratio is much lower than it has been historically, and set to fall as the country's deficit continues to move toward surplus in the next several years."You must believe the official numbers. Have you factored in the unfunded liabilities of Medicare and Social Security? If you include them, the US debt works out to about $500,000 per household.Here's the numbers as of 2004, according to USAToday.

craigpbbrett
craigpbbrett
13 years ago

"Well not really just another, it's the currency of the most indebted country in history."In absolute terms, yes. But that has little relevance. In the much more important measure of debt-to-GDP, the US ratio is much lower than it has been historically, and set to fall as the country's deficit continues to move toward surplus in the next several years.While I'm bear on real estate, I'm generally bullish on the US economy. The recent data all point to stronger growth after a bottom in the last quarter.

Ken
Ken
13 years ago

"It's bs numbers put together buy a salesman, who is too cheap to advertise through regular channels"And copied by a person with little or no class?

patriotz
patriotz
13 years ago

– if our dollar keeps gaining in value shouldn't we be experiencing deflation (on imports)I'm sure the South African rand is "gaining in value" against the Zimbabwe dollar, but that doesn't mean prices are going down in SA.The US$ is losing value because of some pretty fundamental reasons, but that doesn't mean the C$ has to gain value (i.e. price deflation in Canada), any more than any other currency has to gain value.People think there's something magic and absolute about the value of the US$, when in fact it's just another fiat currency. Well not really just another, it's the currency of the most indebted country in history.

freako
freako
13 years ago

– if our dollar keeps gaining in value shouldn't we be experiencing deflation (on imports) or at least having really low inflation. I think you have to look a little deeper. Our dollar is rising because our exports are up (oil, oil, oil). Those exports stimulate our economy, and is the cause of inflationary pressures.

satv
satv
13 years ago

"robsnumbers u must see the door out side"that freedom of expresion you have mention is good to discuss some issue's mostlikely if you do that as user you can make that mistake because you are not responsible for legal action.but by establishing the main frame is preety much stealing the data from some ones hard work.please see the door out side,take a shower,change your shirt,and clean your nose then come back clean.you are smart and well educated, please try to make a diffrence by using your energy on positive way of life.freako is not a strange person,he has rung the well on right time.so please if you have some thing diffrent point of view you can express them on same plate form,or either you can make your own main frame and approach to the pope to establish your link on… Read more »

tulip-Mania2
tulip-Mania2
13 years ago

I’m with Robin Hood / Mr. Data Thief on this one . He/she has done nothing wrong, and certainly is not seeking any monetary gain from it.

Alpha_Bear
Alpha_Bear
13 years ago

A co-worker has been trying to sell her house for several months now, and hasn't had an offer. She asked my advice on what to do.I pointed out that there are many houses in her price range at the moment, and most of them are show homes, or still under construction, which means the buyer can choose colours and finishes, and also come with a 10-year warranty. She said she was aware of 27 such homes for sale in her neighbourhood! I suggested that she consider lowering her price, and was not surprised to hear, "if we don't get our price, then we'll just hang on to it, and re-list it next year." She then said to me, "I think you may have sold at the top (last year)."

Alpha_Bear
Alpha_Bear
13 years ago

"…interest rates can only be locked in for 5 years."If this is true, then why is ING advertising a 7-year and 10-year fixed rate mortgage?I sold my house almost a year ago, and had almost 10 years left on my ING mortgage at a fixed rate of 5.1%.I suspected then that interest rates were likely to rise dramatically in the foreseeable future, and later decided to cash out and rent for a few years. I had to pay a small penalty to ING, but am really glad that I'm now a renter.

Jasper
Jasper
13 years ago

Everyone keeps talking about inflation being so bad. Here's a question – if our dollar keeps gaining in value shouldn't we be experiencing deflation (on imports) or at least having really low inflation. Perhaps the true whammy will be when our dollar starts to decline while we experience true inflation but for right now I don't think that it is too bad.

freako
freako
13 years ago

"It's not "public information", it's material generated by an individual at his own expense in time and effort. "Not without consideration, I might add. Though two wrongs don't make a right.Maybe he doesn't deserve to be blatantly get the control-c control-v treatment. Morality aside, here is the practical side of the issue. Rob provides the numbers. Nobody else does, and probably never will. That gives Rob a captive audience which gives him valuable publicity, and the chance to expound his points of view.Some people take exception to the way this is done (your truly included). Upset people equals drastic action.Legally, Rob is entitled to do what he wants. But since the numbers are taken from MLS, I don't think there are any legal impediments to reposting them, especially since credit is given.Morally? Both parties certainly claim the high ground, and… Read more »