Friday Free-for-all
Here’s the open topic for Friday July 6th - Talk about anything to do with the Vancouver Real estate market here. A few topics I’ve noticed this week:
- June Stats released, SFH benchmark price of $717,715
- Storage locker business booming
- Edmonton prices fall and listings boom
- US home equity loan payments not coming in on time.
What are you seeing out there? Post your news, anecdotes and links here!
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July 5th, 2007 at 11:48 pm
July 6th, 2007 at 6:42 am
Intelligent professionals that I know are happy to own a SFH and seldom discuss its market price-unless they are looking to move. I think they are ambivalent more than obtuse. The hot topic appears to be rec property. But remember we are all 50 plus(the hated generation). I could wax eloquently about no vacations,sweat equity, broken knuckles-but its mainly been lucky timing.
July 6th, 2007 at 7:19 am
July 6th, 2007 at 7:51 am
When folks are all making money, aesthetics and true quality-of-life issues are easily brushed aside, but, come the aftermath doldrums, we’ll be living with the equivalent of bland, vertical slums and eyesores, for decades. Very few buildings with any ’soul’ in this town.
In a slightly related fashion, I was a little surprised to hear that only 340 of the planned 2500 (no typo) units to be built at UBC had been constructed. Anybody who has had to visit UBC recently would tell you that it seems like one large construction site at present, so five times more of this is hard to imagine. Also, developers here seem to have already run into soft demand in some developments (e-mails to faculty offering extended deadlines for ‘deals’), so one can only imagine where they imagine the demand for all the new supply will come from.
Misallocation of resources, anyone?
July 6th, 2007 at 8:35 am
I can’t stop singing songs these days.here is another one based on facts vancouver west is up 24 %on sales to list. totally opposite as mention by jeff.as I am looking for jeff so the title of my next song is
“where is jeff”
where is jeff!in country side
where is jeff!gonna run for while
where is jeff!don’t know where he rides.
looky looky looky looky yeah yeah yeah.
where is jeff?
thank you all
July 6th, 2007 at 8:53 am
July 6th, 2007 at 9:12 am
Regardless, I’ll go from a purely statistical angle. Do you have an equally sized sample set of stupid professionals who have an opinion on the same topic?
July 6th, 2007 at 9:12 am
What? You mean the Chinese aren’t buying it all? What about the rich Albertans? This is UBC, not Bridgeview, for Pete’s sake.
Oh I know, everyone’s scared off because we might be losing the University Golf Course.
July 6th, 2007 at 9:15 am
VS.
Another happy smiley story by Royal LePage (Eastern RE monolith) about how prices on the ‘wet’ coast will soar, as reported by the CBC.
Who do you believe?
http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/.....rices.html
July 6th, 2007 at 9:16 am
July 6th, 2007 at 9:30 am
One realtor believes the sale is a sign, telling the Globe and Mail that Strathcona will one day be equal to, or even more expensive, than the West Side.
You can’t make this stuff up folks.
July 6th, 2007 at 10:25 am
You know, yesterday on news.google.ca, there were 5 or 7 links on the same topic.
Vancouver wasn’t mentioned specifically, other than getting lumped into the “west”. Other cities were getting the main billing. So it seems the rest of the country is going our direction. Best of luck to them.
July 6th, 2007 at 11:40 am
July 6th, 2007 at 12:34 pm
On that topic, I think most of the June sales are based on lower rates than the current ones.
1. Preapprovals.
2. Sales aren’t booked until subjects come off.
Anybody know how long a typical pre-approval is valid for?
July 6th, 2007 at 12:41 pm
Usually 6 months.
July 6th, 2007 at 12:55 pm
I am on vacation now until Sept 1st.
July 6th, 2007 at 12:57 pm
July 6th, 2007 at 1:16 pm
do you not anticipate much sales in the summer?
Happy Holidays
July 6th, 2007 at 1:24 pm
Today’s debt-addicted society has become so used to cheap credit that any significant rise in interest rates could increase personal bankruptcies at a pace not seen in five to 10 years, one economist suggests.
and further down in that same article:
A recent CIBCWorld Markets noted that household credit is rising by about 10 per cent on a year-over-year basis. During the first three months of 2007, household debt rose 2.7 per cent while personal disposable income increased two per cent, it said.
“Even more importantly, the number of proposals for personal bankruptcies — a possible signal of increased bankruptcies down the road — is now rising by 14.9 per cent on a year-over-year basis, the fastest pace since the 2001 recession,”
July 6th, 2007 at 1:28 pm
Jeff: Have a great vacation!
July 6th, 2007 at 1:34 pm
Normally 60 or 90 days.
July 6th, 2007 at 1:42 pm
July 6th, 2007 at 2:23 pm
1. Unintelligent professionals exist, so the qualifier was relevant.
2. Anecdotes are welcome (to me, anyway), often they reveal sentiment, and they may tell us about sectors of the population that are buying/selling/etc. We just can’t use them as hard data.
July 6th, 2007 at 2:41 pm
All in good fun.
July 6th, 2007 at 3:07 pm
Yep, I got 6 months. I just looked at the paper to be sure.
July 6th, 2007 at 6:49 pm
Reply to: hous-368068048@craigslist.org
Date: 2007-07-06, 2:35PM PDT
This is a SMALL room in a apt building. 4 walls and a window, thats it. Your own full washroom (no tub) down the hall, sink in laundry room next door. The room is 100sq ft/10 X 10. It is a basic as it comes, the up is no sharing with roomies. A micro and bar fridge is supplied. It is a starting point to save money or if you are in a difficult situation, nothing more. It includes all utilities and yes cable too, must provide your own phone and internet. Walking distance to everything you need, great bus service, 98-B-Line every 7 minutes. Landlady does not expect you to stay long term, month to month rental. I am a tenant here and can only show you the suite, her say would be final. Suitable for one person only. Quiet, no partiers. Available Aug 1st. Cheers Suzette
Wow! The rental market must be really tight! I love the line” No Partiers. 100 sq ft. Loads of room for guests.
July 6th, 2007 at 9:16 pm
mostly 3 months ,but for new projects at the time of purchase you can lock the rate unless project come to complete and ready to live.for example once I have notice bmo offer rate that could be put on hold for 3 year.and that was 5.25%.so on site you can find lots of offers.I am not sure if all projects offer something.
yesterday I have read in the sun some developer were offering financing on low rate to sell their project quick.so unless or otherwise 3-6m.
July 6th, 2007 at 9:20 pm
The market surprised me… sold 6 properties in June.
I am on vacation now until Sept 1st.
7/6/07 1:55 PM
so I found you and market has changed also good job Jeff it is good time give away your vocations and take around nov-dec thats the coolest buzz.its good to see smile on your face,how do you like my song on you?
July 6th, 2007 at 9:39 pm
I most glad you are up, need your wisdom advisement.
Your friend very upset I posted public information on my simple blog.
I motivated by think I do moral thing, warn people of bad thing real estate bust soon.
Some say not nice things about me, but I think if on net, then information for everybody.
This not old country-this freedom Canda,
What you say?
July 6th, 2007 at 10:06 pm
That craigslist ad sound like a typical DTES welfare hotel room ad. The price is in the ball park of single employable housing allowance.
Are welfare bums in DTES being driven out to other areas? I know that rental market is pretty tight, and $320 won’t get you much of a room anywhere in GVRD. Still, I wouldn’t want to be a tenant in that house, just due to the type of renters it attracts.
July 6th, 2007 at 10:36 pm
While Rob is “busy”, the posts fly. The following are quoted a bit out of context, but the flawed logic still stands:
“The markets are biased towards rising at least at the inflationary level, rent is biased to rise at least at the inflationary level, debt is biased toward being paid back with less value dollars at least at the inflationary level. “
Spectralshift, who posted this, apparently believe that lenders are shaved apes. Think about it. Inflation is included in rates. Otherwise, one would just borrow money and buy collectable GI Joe action figures on EBay. After 10 years, simply sell the even more inflated action figures and pay back with worthless monopoly money. Easy as pie to make money. Yeah right. Next.
“In today’s dollars Fozzie. That is the beauty of a mortgage (long term dept) you borrow at today’s dollars and pay them back with 50 cent pieces later after inflation kicks in.”
Finance theory is being re-written right in front of your eyes. See above.
July 6th, 2007 at 10:58 pm
No kidding Freako, is real life stranger than fiction or what?
Can somebody please tell me what I have stolen?
It’s bs numbers put together buy a salesman, who is too cheap to advertise through regular channels.
And I make no attempt at hiding where the numbers came from.
Hence the name.
July 6th, 2007 at 11:46 pm
It’s going to cost “at the minimum†another $10 million to repair leaky condo buildings owned by the Greater Vancouver Regional District (GVRD).
July 6th, 2007 at 11:47 pm
July 7th, 2007 at 5:07 am
Methinks this is some youngster who knows nothing of Canada’s fiscal and monetary history pre-Martin and Crow, and also seems to be unaware that interest rates can only be locked in for 5 years.
There is no fairy godmother in China buying Canadian bonds to keep our currency up, regardless of fundamentals. Any evidence of systematic inflation in the C$ would result in a bear market in C$ debt, as we have seen before. Maybe the youngsters should watch “That 70’s Show” sometime.
July 7th, 2007 at 8:17 am
It’s not “public information”, it’s material generated by an individual at his own expense in time and effort.
Nowhere in your postings does the name “Chipman” appear - nowhere is there a link back to the original source - this is nothing more than a blatant violation of another person’s copyright.
It’s unethical, and that it is being done by someone claiming the moral high ground makes it sheer hypocrisy.
July 7th, 2007 at 8:41 am
Not without consideration, I might add. Though two wrongs don’t make a right.
Maybe he doesn’t deserve to be blatantly get the control-c control-v treatment. Morality aside, here is the practical side of the issue. Rob provides the numbers. Nobody else does, and probably never will. That gives Rob a captive audience which gives him valuable publicity, and the chance to expound his points of view.
Some people take exception to the way this is done (your truly included). Upset people equals drastic action.
Legally, Rob is entitled to do what he wants. But since the numbers are taken from MLS, I don’t think there are any legal impediments to reposting them, especially since credit is given.
Morally? Both parties certainly claim the high ground, and I am sure there is one, but I don’t see either party solidly on it.
Maybe Rob will stop posting his numbers, but that will just serve the purpose of Mr. Data Thief who wants to take away Rob’s captive audience.
In the end, I think it will work out. Those who are interested in reading Rob’s (and posters commentary) will. Those who don’t won’t. I can’t see why Rob wouldn’t want it that way. If the real purpose is self-promotion, why not say good riddance to critics? Alternatively, try not to push as many buttons. You reap what you sow.
July 7th, 2007 at 8:59 am
Perhaps the true whammy will be when our dollar starts to decline while we experience true inflation but for right now I don’t think that it is too bad.
July 7th, 2007 at 9:18 am
If this is true, then why is ING advertising a 7-year and 10-year fixed rate mortgage?
I sold my house almost a year ago, and had almost 10 years left on my ING mortgage at a fixed rate of 5.1%.
I suspected then that interest rates were likely to rise dramatically in the foreseeable future, and later decided to cash out and rent for a few years. I had to pay a small penalty to ING, but am really glad that I’m now a renter.
July 7th, 2007 at 9:23 am
I pointed out that there are many houses in her price range at the moment, and most of them are show homes, or still under construction, which means the buyer can choose colours and finishes, and also come with a 10-year warranty. She said she was aware of 27 such homes for sale in her neighbourhood! I suggested that she consider lowering her price, and was not surprised to hear, “if we don’t get our price, then we’ll just hang on to it, and re-list it next year.” She then said to me, “I think you may have sold at the top (last year).”
July 7th, 2007 at 9:29 am
July 7th, 2007 at 9:53 am
that freedom of expresion you have mention is good to discuss some issue’s mostlikely if you do that as user you can make that mistake because you are not responsible for legal action.but by establishing the main frame is preety much stealing the data from some ones hard work.
please see the door out side,take a shower,change your shirt,and clean your nose then come back clean.
you are smart and well educated, please try to make a diffrence by using your energy on positive way of life.
freako is not a strange person,he has rung the well on right time.so please if you have some thing diffrent point of view you can express them on same plate form,or either you can make your own main frame and approach to the pope to establish your link on vancover condo.info.
July 7th, 2007 at 10:03 am
I think you have to look a little deeper. Our dollar is rising because our exports are up (oil, oil, oil). Those exports stimulate our economy, and is the cause of inflationary pressures.
July 7th, 2007 at 4:14 pm
I’m sure the South African rand is “gaining in value” against the Zimbabwe dollar, but that doesn’t mean prices are going down in SA.
The US$ is losing value because of some pretty fundamental reasons, but that doesn’t mean the C$ has to gain value (i.e. price deflation in Canada), any more than any other currency has to gain value.
People think there’s something magic and absolute about the value of the US$, when in fact it’s just another fiat currency. Well not really just another, it’s the currency of the most indebted country in history.
July 8th, 2007 at 6:56 am
And copied by a person with little or no class?
July 8th, 2007 at 7:27 am
In absolute terms, yes. But that has little relevance.
In the much more important measure of debt-to-GDP, the US ratio is much lower than it has been historically, and set to fall as the country’s deficit continues to move toward surplus in the next several years.
While I’m bear on real estate, I’m generally bullish on the US economy. The recent data all point to stronger growth after a bottom in the last quarter.
July 8th, 2007 at 11:17 am
You must believe the official numbers. Have you factored in the unfunded liabilities of Medicare and Social Security? If you include them, the US debt works out to about $500,000 per household.
Here’s the numbers as of 2004, according to USAToday.
July 8th, 2007 at 11:22 am
That is astounding.
I believe the Canadian debt is about $40k per person.
July 8th, 2007 at 4:51 pm
According to what I read, the US would have already been in a recession the last year and a half were it not for domestic spending that seemed to be based upon consumers using home equity. Other sources take into account the US current account and federal deficits and refer to the US as a third world country with nuclear weapons. While I would not go that far, I would not be too bullish.
July 8th, 2007 at 7:56 pm
If you want to move the goalposts, fine, how would the unfunded liabilities of Europe and Japan stack up, considering they’re much more heavily invested in social spending while having a rapidly worsening demographic profile.
As for standard debt-to-GDP, Japan is at about 100%, France and Germany in the 60s and Italy over a 100.
The US in comparison is in the 40s.
And as mentioned before, the deficit is shrinking so quickly that a surplus is expected in several years.
The US just emerged from an expected sluggish quarter with strong job growth, a soaring services index and benign inflation; all of which indicate the Fed and most economists were right in forecasting a mid-year pickup.
The US has problems but the data doesn’t support the dire prognoses often found on this blog and others.
July 8th, 2007 at 7:57 pm
That’s complete nonsense. Total debt/GDP is about 3.8 today, the highest in history.
Government debt/GDP peaked during WWII, but private sector debt - both consumer and corporate - was way, way lower back then.
The recent data all point to stronger growth after a bottom in the last quarter.
Who says so? Hank Paulson?
July 8th, 2007 at 8:24 pm
That is an alarming number indeed. But I think it is an oversimplification to consider underfunding debt in the traditional sense. It means that the government does not have enough socked away to meet FUTURE obligations. I think they are treading on dangerous ground, but if the economy keeps growing fast, that may not be an issue.
If it doesn’t, big big problems all around. The problem I see is that both the government and population at large have taken future prosperity for granted when making their consumption decisions.
That would be like an individual borrowing today and spending today the raises he expects to get in the future. Moving future income to the present isn’t a bad idea in general. But the problem is that we are arrogantly confident about the future, and we leave little margin for setbacks.
We now have so much confidence in the Fed that there was talk that recessions will never be experienced again. It is exactly that kind of talk that makes me think that we could get hit hard. Just as with housing. It is the layman expectation that housing won’t go down which allowed it to become severely overpriced.
I read a great book a few years ago called Ubiquity. It essentially argued that many things in our world
follow power laws. For every doubling in magnitude, they event is twice (or whatever number) as rare . For violent conflict, the relationship holds all the way from single murders to world wars. Same for earth quake, stock market crashes, extinctions and many other events.
It also holds for forest fires. This is where it gets interesting. When man interferes by fighting every forest fire, no matter how small, what happens to the power law relationship? Well, computer modeling as well as real life data show that we lose more timber. The trees lost due to small fires is down, but the ones lost to big fires are way way up. In fact, the total trees lost when fires are fought indiscriminately are higher than if left to burn.
Will that hold true for discretionary Federal Reserve as well? If you hold off minor recessions by micromanaging the money supply, are you just setting up a bigger perfect storm mega depression? Food for thought.
July 8th, 2007 at 8:51 pm
http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/
–the bank listed the home on the MLS for $459,900 in March of this year.
–Price Reduced: 04/06/07 — $459,900 to $444,900
–Price Reduced: 04/25/07 — $444,900 to $429,900
–Price Reduced: 06/06/07 — $429,900 to $409,900
–Price Reduced: 07/04/07 — $409,900 to $379,900.And the darn thing hasn’t even sold yet.
July 8th, 2007 at 8:53 pm
now its time to tell you this stuff we have unloaded is money.count after count we have come to conclusion this is not 100k or 200k,not even millions or billions. this money is a total of $41 trillions.
specially made for dock sitters by their hard working parents(stock sitters).these dock sitters will spend this money to buy more real estate.
now we have to figure out what and what to buy lets say we buy this 18.2 millions condo then there are some in the list for 7.5,5,and some 3 and 2 millions.
lets say total of 31.2 millions now we have to decide where else we can buy more real estate with the rest of money,so I need your help to allocate 41 trillions of dollars any body who will help me will get commission equal to realtor thanx.
July 8th, 2007 at 10:04 pm
Weather is nicer, and you can buy many more and nicer waterfront penthouse condos for the same money.
July 8th, 2007 at 11:05 pm
“It’s bs numbers put together buy a salesman, who is too cheap to advertise through regular channels.”
You are just one classy person aren’t you? You denigrate Rob, lift “bs” numbers from him…doesn’t that make your blog full of bs?
Is it your business how Rob chooses to market himself?
July 9th, 2007 at 7:49 am
It’s not fair to access the future of USD by the debt in the private sector. How the private sector choose to raise money is its own business, whether it’s done through stock market or debt market. What is alarming, though, is the extremely large portion of US government debt held by foreigners. The massive current account deficit has contributed to the relatively tame inflation and stable USD. If the world decides to cut by on USD reserve growth, watch for massive inflation.
July 9th, 2007 at 8:03 am
I am scared to buy some thing in florida ,you know that hard work from those architects,engineers and all that from lobours will be washed away by hurricane katrina charlie.so we can not buy damn what to do with 41tr…..
July 9th, 2007 at 9:21 am
As far as the rest of your 41 trillion, I’d look into buying up as much of Japan as possible. And properties in the United Arab Emirates.
July 9th, 2007 at 10:19 am
If the money is borrowed from foreigners (i.e. China, Japan, etc) it certainly is.
It’s the same taxpayers who are on the hook, although not necessarily in the same proportions.
On the bright side, it looks like the housing/MBS meltdown may make some of that debt go away, which is something the government can’t do with its own debt. Not in nominal terms anyway.