friday free for all!

Its that time of the week again! This is your open topic discussion post for Friday July 27th.

Here’s a few stories I’ve noticed this week:

– City addressing affordability crisis.
– It “sounded like a good investment at the time
– Exporting ‘Vancouver’s problem
– Housing mess creating big losses for investors.
Condo Vultures

What are you seeing out there? Post any tidbits of news, info, links and anecdotes here!

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Patiently Waiting

I totally agree that we are failing the more severely mentally ill. Now, as all the money is being thrown around for 2010, should be when we can make some kind of progress. We are not. That is tragic.


I agree, there are those that are capable of integration and there are those that can't. But, we are not speaking of those that are capable of integration. In any case, those that are capable of integration requires much supporting infrastructure that are simply nonexistent. The development plan calls for social housing and not of supporting infrastructure. The government do not want the responsibility to cover the costs any longer and is perfectly happy to shift them out of the limelight.The key here is supporting infrastructure and policies that clearly speaks to how to apply medical resources when the mentally ill refuses medication, etc. As far as I know, Coquitlam does not want to be the new dumping ground for BC. I don't see them waiting in line to replace Vancouver. In fact, if you read the Tri-City community newspaper,… Read more »


patiently waiting … i'm sorry, but you've really got to read within the context of the entire discussion point. If you are referring to those that are on skid row, then, YEA, that's who I am speaking about. If you're speaking of people with mild mental illness living next door with full capability to medicate themselves and living independently, then, NO, I'm not speaking about them.I don't think I need to legally and medically define who exactly I am speaking of. We are all sensible adult's capable of understanding the discussion point within context. Medically speaking, many mentally ill patients on skid row simply choose not to take their medication leading to deterioration of their conditions to the point where they simply are not capable to even fill out a form. Now ask those mentally ill people to fill out… Read more »

Patiently Waiting

ahken, when you say "the mentally ill" it sounds like you are talking about everyone who has a mental illness. That's a lot of people, including many who live fairly "normal" lives and never need to be institutionalized (or only for a limited time). As mk-kids mentioned there are some mentally ill people who could thrive with the proper supports, but they haven't been sufficiently provided.Of course, there are some with mental illnesses who may never function well in society (thus have to be institutionalized) but I would argue they are a minority.I have family members with mentally illnesses and I have volunteered teaching computer skills to the mentally ill. I have seen with my own eyes that the mentally ill can integrate into society and hold down a job. Even in Vancouver.


article: <a href="… />quote from same: "British Columbia continued to have the highest average house price at $446,893 in June, though that was down from $454,962 in May. "


The US Bubble documented, and explained in detail:We know that the usual suspects will sayIt's different in Canada-this time


The scientists at Philip Morris would have warned the people that smoking causes cancer if they had only known.The RE experts would have warned us by now if there was a bubble. They just aren’t sure, given such little information and history available.


Here is a quote from Ben Jones blog, about a realtor who bought a condo with two friends at the peak of the bubble:“Oh said his living costs quadrupled when he bought his share of the condo unit, but it was worth it to live where he wanted to live and work toward some equity.”Justifying quadruple living costs by building equity? Buddy, you are losing equity.


cbb … I totally agree.As they say, "Rising tide lifts all boats".


Every system makes money in a bull market. The real test is when things get choppy or head downhill.


freako said: "Surely there is a fallacy or two that describes this tactic."Begging the question


Weather is also a good analogy.Using models that take a micro approach is a bit like predicting the weather. Very accurate in the short term. Less so in the medium. Totally useless in the long run.


In that sense, the more he drinks, the closer he is to stopping (my view), but also, the more likely he is to have another one (Cam's view).Or like the German Army in WWII. The more territory they have conquered, the more likely they are to conquer even more.Until Stalingrad.


freako/all: This discussion re Cam reminds me of my recent thread at RET (why? why?) called "Guessing Right For The Wrong Reasons" (see below).I'm with freako and similar analysts all the way on this one.One of these days, Mr. Market is going to exact a penalty for the guessers who've guessed right for the wrong reason.—This piece by Bill Fleckenstein about DOW 14000 might as well apply to Vancouver RE.> LINK excerpts:I say that because if somebody continually gets the analysis part wrong, even if he gets the guess part right — i.e., temporarily makes money buying stocks because he says that subprime either doesn't matter or is contained — that incorrect analysis ultimately will see him get carried out.In the long term, correct analysis is more important than your guess about how people will react to it.Today's bulls have… Read more »


"If the guy has not called a previous downturn, what credibility does he have predicting there will not be one going forward? "No credibility with me. He has never called a downturn.Wwhat he has done is what all those before him have done at CMHC- forecasting by template.When the economy is on steroids, the forecast will be high single digit price appreciation, when the economy is contracting the forecast will be just above inflation. The analysts get their careers started at CMHC, and if they behave, and catch on with how to manipulate the media,then they graduate to private enterprise, and that’s when they get the big bucks.I believe in his own heart, Cam is just as baffled as we are that the correction is not yet in full swing.He knows it's coming, but he is paid to say it… Read more »


freako, the only reason why Cam was right and you were wrong is that someone had to be right, and it wasn't you.His turn for being wrong will come at some point, at which point our 20/20 hindsight will spell out why.In the meantime, keep on keepin' on TEPUE.X et al.


The last sentence should say "as sellers refuse to actualize paper losses."


"When prices start falling it is apparently difficult to get volume up again."Yes, supply and demand does not operate like most goods and commodities. Normally, high demand and low supply is associated with rising prices and vice versa.For housing, prices are an input as much as an output, and interact with supply and demand.If the market cools, and prices don't fall, the market won't clear and sales will drop off a cliff.If the market cools, and prices fall, counterintuitively, demand will drop off a cliff. Not only that, but supply will dry up as well as sellers actualize paper losses.


OK, so did he predict the 1981-1984 crash (maybe too young for this one) or the 1995-2000 bear market? Don't know doubt it. I was referring to the current run up. he felt that prices would continue to appreciate in 2006. I said "no way, no how". He was right. He said that prices would appreciate in 2007. I said "no way, no how". He was right. Why was he right, and I wrong? Because he based his opinions on relevant microdata that accurately foresaw the depth and breadth of demand. I used the insane valuations to deduce that the end must be near.Here is an analogy that I have used before:It is 9PM and the party is just getting started. One particular reveler has wasted no time and is already half sloshed. A few others are taking bets on… Read more »


"With a correction they would have a broader market and be able to do more volume."As a premonition of what may come to pass in Vancouver, take a look at some of the US markets like San Diego and Phoenix: prices are down and so is sales volume. When prices start falling it is apparently difficult to get volume up again. A speculative run, where prices and volumes move in tandem both up and down.


The thing is that Cam has been very very right over the yearsOK, so did he predict the 1981-1984 crash (maybe too young for this one) or the 1995-2000 bear market? I'll give him a pass on the 1990 correction.If the guy has not called a previous downturn, what credibility does he have predicting there will not be one going forward?


What is interesting Tulip Mania is your comment about realtor pimps "Not a spectacular crash, just yet, but cetainnly casts some doubt on the "running out of land" bs, the real estate pimps were pushing "You actually think that realtors want to keep pushing prices? It is harder for them to find the purchase at this price. They would have to find people solely based on lifestyle and disposable income.With a correction they would have a broader market and be able to do more volume.You should realize that there is use to a realtor and if you know a good one it truly does help. Most of the people who have been burned by realtor will no longer be able to find them considering they will not last. A good realtor is like a good lawyer, accountant, financial advisor. You… Read more »


I thought all the drug addicts were being sent to Victoria?


re the Georgia Strait article.That was a hatchet job, but not by Muir, but rather the reporter, Charlie Smith.He/she writes: The now-defunct Vancouver Housing Market Blog, operated by a man who identified himself as Vance, was spreading a doomsday message that the region was on the verge of a housing crash.Those are strong words for a non-editorial. Cam is a bit of an enigma. Now that he deserves more leeway now that he works for the realtors, where it is clearly understood that spin is part of the job. Compared to say Lereah, he is very low key, avoiding use of slanted metaphors and the like.He did respond to VHB personally, and at the time he did imply that the models they use are more sophisticated than us bears seem to think. The thing is that Cam has been very… Read more »


Some early signs from the UK" Mannall agrees. “Houses that a couple of months ago were valued at £925,000 are £895,000 today, and a £550,000 house is now £500,000.” It is this mid-mainstream market that is particularly affected – this is a slowdown we are experiencing, not a crash"Not a spectacular crash, just yet, but cetainnly casts some doubt on the "running out of land" bs, the real estate pimps were pushing