Interest rates going up.

Whether house prices continue to go up or not, they just got more expensive – The Bank of Canada is set to raise interest rates for the first time in more than a year.

After tomorrow, bank officials make their next decision on Sept. 5, followed by Oct. 16 and Dec. 4. In its last statement in May, the central bank said “some increase in the target for the overnight rate may be required in the near term to bring inflation back to the target”.

Once the current batch of locked-in preapproved rates have worked their way through the demand side of our housing market we’ll see what effect this rate increase will have.

Theres a related story today in the Tyee:

Two-in-three Canadians think houses in their neighbourhood are overpriced, according to a poll released today by Angus Reid Strategies. Almost three-in-four homeowners say they could not afford a down payment on their house as it’s presently valued. And the vast majority of Canadians rank home ownership as a top priority, but are pessimistic about their chances of buying a house in the current market.

27 Comments
newest
oldest most voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
freako
freako
13 years ago

On the example of women entering work force: Wages generally held steady, unemployment didn't get affected much. But the income required to buy a property skyrocketed. Ok, but then play that in reverse with regards to boomers retiring.

markx
markx
13 years ago

"The number of jobs is a function of the number of people willing and able to work, not the other way around. "Well, it's also a function of demand for work and money available to pay for work. If boomers retire on expected schedule, there will be a large demand for health care and general service, and lack of domestic labour willing to do them at current rate. The result would be a combinaton of increased wages in service sector, increased use of foreign service sector labour, and boomers retiring later.On the example of women entering work force: Wages generally held steady, unemployment didn't get affected much. But the income required to buy a property skyrocketed. Rent also went up, eventually two middle class incomes were required to afford middle-class housing. I would say that, real wage, measured in goods… Read more »

markx
markx
13 years ago

"If I'm bullish on anything RE related, its vacation/retirement properties. "Actually, south of border, vacation/retirement properties are first to crash, and crash the hardest. Nobody NEED a second home, or a property in retirement area. The prime example is Florida, a market that collapse under weight of speculation, as it had no local economy to begin with.

freako
freako
13 years ago

"Do you think many of the jobs will disappear when the babyboomers retire from them? If not, it would seem that wages would go up due to a labour shortage. "Well, if you believe that jobs are independent little slots that need to be filled by workers, maybe so. I don't see it that way, but rather the other way around. The number of jobs is a function of the number of people willing and able to work, not the other way around. To give you a different side of the same coin, France went to a shorter workweek nationally. The hope was that it would lower unemployment because the unemployed would fill the shortened day. It failed miserably for obvious reasons.Or yet another: Why didn't unemployment skyrocket when women entered the workforce? Or more related to the argument at… Read more »

Patiently Waiting
Patiently Waiting
13 years ago

freako,Do you think many of the jobs will disappear when the babyboomers retire from them? If not, it would seem that wages would go up due to a labour shortage.

freako
freako
13 years ago

"Retiring boomers will affect interest rates. There will be fewer people to replace them. Wages will go up and interest rates will follow."Not sure that it indicates higher wages. By that logic, a smaller country should pay higher wages because they have fewer people. Also don't follow why rates would go up.

freako
freako
13 years ago

"I keep hearing about these studies on the savings rate and would like to know if it includes employer sponsored pension plans, home equity and inheritances? "Off the top of my head, yes, no and no.It is simply income minus consumption. It does not include increases in net worth due to RE or investment appreciation. Thus the majority of people have increased their net worth even while their savings rate has been negative. In fact, there is a cause and effect relationship. The savings rate decreased because net worth increased (wealth effect).The RE never goes down, all is great. However, should RE go down signficantly, people will all of a sudden realize that they undersaved, and their consumption will be drastically reduced. Historically, people tend to increase consumption when employment income is up, but not so much when investments appreciate,… Read more »

Brenda
Brenda
13 years ago

Every study undertaken recently demonstrates that boomers are not saving enough for retirement and will either have to keep working or substantially downsize their lifestyle, or some combination of both.I keep hearing about these studies on the savings rate and would like to know if it includes employer sponsored pension plans, home equity and inheritances? I know a few – I call them the lucky ones – who've retired for one or more of these reasons. I also know a few who haven't saved a dime because after paying for shelter and food there isn't much left over. A couple of them have retired and are doing just fine. Their lifestyle is no better or worse than it was before. Then there are the ones who won't retire unti their financial advisor say's it's OK to do so even though… Read more »

Brenda
Brenda
13 years ago

Every study undertaken recently demonstrates that boomers are not saving enough for retirement and will either have to keep working or substantially downsize their lifestyle, or some combination of both.I keep hearing about these studies on the savings rate and would like to know if it includes employer sponsored pension plans, home equity and inheritances? I know a few – I call them the lucky ones – who've retired for one or more of these reasons. I also know a few who haven't saved a dime because after paying for shelter and food there isn't much left over. A couple of them have retired and are doing just fine. Their lifestyle is no better or worse than it was before. Then there are the ones who won't retire unti their financial advisor say's it's OK to do so even though… Read more »

Brenda
Brenda
13 years ago

Do people tend to move more when their children leave home, or when they retire? I think the first has happened for most boomers, but the 2nd may have a larger impact on housing.Most of the people I know from the generation that's been through all the stages (those in their 80s and 90s) didn't leave their homes until it was time to move into a seniors home, usually in their late 70s or later. According to the Stats Canada definition, the boomers are those born between 1946 and 1966. The number of people born each year grows until the peak around 1959/60.That would make the oldest boomer 61 this year and the youngest 41 with the majority around the age of 47-48. Because a lot of boomers had children later in life, many still have kids in school or… Read more »

van-realestate-crash
van-realestate-crash
13 years ago

I think I heard about the rich foreigners. China will take over Hong Kong, and therefore all the rich people will move here with all their money before the Communists take over.They love Vancouver because it looks so much like Hong Kong…. Oh shucks I’m lost in time, that was before the last crash.

patriotz
patriotz
13 years ago

A foreigner can purchase property in Canada without being an immigrantWell sure and foreigners can buy Nortel too. So why did it crash in 2000?Yet another "dumb rich foreigner" argument. Vancouver is a bad investment because the yields are dismal. Bad for you, bad for me, and bad for foreigners. Mr. Market doesn't care who's buying.I think it will depress urban and suburban prices, but inflate vacation markets – like the Sunshine Coast, OkanaganFor heaven's sake, Kelowna is already as expensive as Toronto. You really think there are that many people out there with enough equity to keep this party going? How can secondary markets rise if urban markets are falling?All of southern BC (including the Island) is a market for retirees, and it's a really big place. People were saying Florida had nowhere to go up because of retirees,… Read more »

tulip-Mania2
tulip-Mania2
13 years ago

Tsur:""Nobody credible has predicted a price decline.""Translation:Yes we are headed for a crash, but I won’t be the first high profile talking head to publicly announce it, why should I have nothing to gain from it.It’s good to tell the truth. All the time. If you do so, you don’t have to remember everything you said before.As per example:Remember when asked whether we were headed for a crash just like the early eighties, and you pointed out that circumstance were different then.You said something about affordability! Guess what Tsuir (usual suspect) it’s worse now, and you can’t hope for a 1500bsp cut from the BOC to the rescue this time.Tick Tock, Tick Tock

Warren
Warren
13 years ago

betaI wouldn't bet on boomer retirements to pump up RE prices.I think it will depress urban and suburban prices, but inflate vacation markets – like the Sunshine Coast, Okanagan, etc. This is from anecdotal evidence from people in that generation.Some boomers are depending on their real estate, but some aren't. Also, there's a world of difference between a boomer who is sitting on a home in the GVRD completely paid for and some specu-vestor who has 8% equity in a market that could easily drop 30%, but is expecting "big gains".

HADENOUGH
HADENOUGH
13 years ago

van-real estate crash and freako,My husband was on Bay street during the tech stock fiasco and he remembers analyst getting threats if they warned of a bubble. In the U.S. they had death threats.

HADENOUGH
HADENOUGH
13 years ago

Beta,True. These boomers are not like the generation before them. They spend big time. They did not live through a depression or a war like the previous generation. They don't cut coupons and send their kids off to college with a new car and a credit card. Apparently 90% of Canadians have not saved enough for retirement and some may have to let their trophy houses go. I know of many who were looking at their property as their pension.

van-realestate-crash
van-realestate-crash
13 years ago

""Nobody credible has predicted a price decline.""Did anyone "credible" predict a 50% decline in 81' 82'?Did anyone credible predict this run up?Does anyone credible see Vancouver's prices sustainable?

freako
freako
13 years ago

More Tsur:""Nobody credible has predicted a price decline.""Ok, Tsur, you are not a spinster in the traditional sense, and you do have academic credentials in the subject area, so I will go easy on you.I find the fact that you don't expect any price declines puzzling. Affordability is through the floor. Construction abounds. Rates are creeping up. U.S. economy is in peril. And most importantly, we have precedent of huge declines locally.Good enough, no credible sources expect price declines (I am wondering who exactly the credible sources are, and what they expect). Should there be signficant price declines, I think there should be some trading places going on in the future. Certain bloggers should be elevated to credible, and certain mainstream pundits should be relegated to non-credible status.I am so confident of at least a 10% nominal peak to trough… Read more »

robs numbers
robs numbers
13 years ago

Just wanted to thank ReSteven,for stepping up to the plate with the stats.I'm doing it through here(for security reasons) and there is much more traffic here than at my blog.I will shut it down as soon as the regular posters realize who will be supplying the stats.Again, thanks, and here goes another plug:http://vannumbers.wordpress.com/

freako
freako
13 years ago

"A foreigner can purchase property in Canada without being an immigrant. "1. All else the same, immigration matters, no?2. If a foreign owned propert is rented, it still part of the housing supply, soaking up a renter. In that sense, it is no different than a property owned by a local investor. 3. If it is foreign owned, and empty, it does indeed take supply off the market. But that artificially raises prices, which causes further construction, until prices are back in line. We will not be a ghost town of foreign owned empty condos. Also, how will these foreigners react if prices start falling? Maybe they will find somewhere else to "park" their money?

OWG
OWG
13 years ago

I think that we are making a mistake by looking at immigration numbers. A foreigner can purchase property in Canada without being an immigrant. So if I am making a load of money in China I can park some of that cash in a nice piece of real estate in Vancovuer. And frankly, I don't think those people give a rats ass about Canadian interest rates.

jesse
jesse
13 years ago

Tal Sommerville says: "That would only affect someone on the margins, he says."Thanks, Tal, for that one. Gold, Jerry, gold."Vancouver's housing market has much in common with other cities that saw price increases, factors including a growing economy, rising incomes, increased immigration and higher employment."The Tyee needs to expound these claims a bit better. Incomes are flat in real terms. Immigration well below peak. Employment growth has stalled in the past few months. On the growing economy, well, hopefully Vancouver has diversified enough away from forestry…

Jim
Jim
13 years ago
beta
beta
13 years ago

If I'm bullish on anything RE related, its vacation/retirement properties.Every study undertaken recently demonstrates that boomers are not saving enough for retirement and will either have to keep working or substantially downsize their lifestyle, or some combination of both.I wouldn't bet on boomer retirements to pump up RE prices.

beta
beta
13 years ago

"Almost three-in-four homeowners say they could not afford a down payment on their house as it's presently valued."That pretty much says it all.