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Vancouver prices will never come down.

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Reductimat sent in a link to this article on News1130 about the recent Angus Reid poll on home prices. I don’t think I’ve ever seen an article that lays down so many giant day-glow dots and then refuses to connect them. From the photo of several condo towers under construction downtown (supply) to the demand side economics “three-quarters of current home owners say they could not afford the prices currently being charged for real estate in their neighbourhood.”

Its tough to pick the best gem from this brief article, but I like this paragraph :

Lucas Marshall from Angus Reid says waiting could cost you even more money. “It’s dangerous…chances are prices aren’t going to be more favourable, and most people who do own homes say they’re very lucky they got in when they did.” In fact, 95% of current owners who took part in the survey said they’re happy they bought when they did.

Are you kidding me? How many people holding an asset that’s shot up in value are going to be unhappy with their purchase? 5 percent apparently. And since when did past performance create any sort of guarantee for future results?

Lucas says the overall message from the survey is do your best to buy now because prices are not likely to drop.

So when was the last time a poll indicated a price drop, and if we reach the point were %100 percent of owners couldn’t afford the house they’re living in at current prices where are we going to find buyers? The move-down crowd?

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el bbub

Oh, man.. things look pretty bad in US.S&P finally says subprime is mostly junkQuotes: S&P's announcement is a death warrant for the subprime industry. No longer will mortgage brokers be able to help buyers lie their way into a home… "We do not foresee the poor performance abating," S&P said… More mortgage fraud will be uncovered as the tide goes out…here's another interesting one: S&P may cut ratings on subprime-related debtQuotes: …S&P is overhauling its rating methodology and reviewing its ratings of the $1-trillion market… This subprime situation is being underestimated and is worse than many people had expected… The $12.1-billion in affected debt represents 2.13 per cent of the $565.3-billion U.S. subprime market… The folks on Wall Street knew or should have known these loans they were remarketing were fraudulently obtained !more like fradulently made available!…218 U.S. cash flow… Read more »

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freako

"At the end of the day the government and ultimately us as Canadians has to decide. In the long run, do we want to drive down overall wages further by importing cheap workers?"This is a side debate, but I don't think protectionism hurt the middle class more than it will help, all things considered. I hope you realize that the "real" part in real wages is after inflation. Stop the imports, and you will see real wages decline like never before.

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scoop

Here is a link to detailed survey results and methodology. The Tyee presents the story from a different angle.

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HADENOUGH

How paid for that Angus Reid Poll. It had to be paid for by someone?Someone in the RE buisness?

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satv

mohican you did not mention what is old and what is funny.if you point at my comment that is not a news,not even blast from past this is whats happening right now.those years back examples from hospitals is to compare current prospectus.3 month ago longshore employer hired around 2100 casual's what they have got since then is just one shift or no shift despite those hired with no shift further hiring is continue's.

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Akhen

-Real wage growth is stagnant while corporate profits grow-Non-tracked inflation is extremely high -Currency savings are not being passed to consumers-housing prices at sky-high levels driven primarily by excess cheap liquidity that drives speculationAt the end of the day the government and ultimately us as Canadians has to decide. In the long run, do we want to drive down overall wages further by importing cheap workers? [Key phrase being the long-run!] Further squeezing the average Canadian and frustrating our in-built policies to ensure fair distribution of wealth.A tight labour market (tight supply) is a natural process of economics to ensure fair participation of all “Canadians”. Having wages rise when supply is tight encourages further greater participation of all Canadians in the labour market. By artificially imputing supply that does not abide by existing Canadian employment rules from an alternate source… Read more »

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mohican

These fluffy "news" stories are so funny at this point. I am thinking of posting some of VHB's blasts from the past for old time's sake.

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satv

"Employer's are hiring EAGLES to catch PIGEONS"those of us who are worried about baby boomers,rate of pay,and their impacts on real estate up or down should also consider this casual workers.more and more employers are hiring casual and temp workers to deal with any kind of situation,those casual employees are either working on second job,on ei,ui,or welfare.I have notice in alberta employers are bringing groups of workers on contract they might work for the company for 3year or their bonds will be sealed($30000-$50000 approximately).most of those employees are from mexico,china and India.In vancouver we are not really depend on contracts, so employers are hiring casual workers,some of those casual's are paying from their pockets to drive to work and getting no work, are in waiting list but they might check with managements every day or get fire without being employee's… Read more »

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Akhen

Since the conclusion is that the majority is waiting, shouldn't an objective, scientifically based pollster conclude that the demand side is starting to get rather tired/hit a wall, and that this could spell danger for the supply side?Rather imbecilic for him to take the approach of an advisor as opposed to the role he is paid to be … that of an objective pollster presenting an observation and possibly a conclusion/analysis.But, the average guy on the streets will just lap it all up! Dweeb!Unbelievable!

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scoop

I heard this on the radio yesterday on the drive home and almost ran off the road. 95% of those surveyed feel lucky they bought when they did, primarily because most of them would not be able to afford their own homes at current prices. And yet the conclusion is that you too should go out and buy whatever little piece of crap you can still afford.

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HADENOUGH

I think so many people have so much money (all their money) tied up on real estate – the idea of a crash is just too frightening.Lucas Marshall may just be one of them.

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beta

Meh. I heard similar crap in '81…

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digi

Thats totally absurd, I don't even know where to start.

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freako

"Lucas Marshall from Angus Reid says waiting could cost you even more money. "It's dangerous…chances are prices aren't going to be more favourable, and most people who do own homes say they're very lucky they got in when they did."WTF? They asked some questions about this and that, and are able to draw such a conclusion? Since when did pollster become financial analysts? No wonder we have a bubble, there is FUD spread by anybody with a pulpit.

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the pope

I found some spare time that had fallen down in between the couch cushions.. I have this idea that I can post in a flurry and then leave it well enough alone for a few days.

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solipsist

Wow! Your Eminence, you are posting like a mad hatter.Where do you find the time?

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