Credit markets "seizing up"?
From an article on MSNBC:
Major central banks swept in to calm credit markets spooked by mounting losses on Thursday and injected cash to prevent the financial system from seizing up.The European Central Bank pumped a record 94.8 billion euros ($130.6 billion) into Europe’s money markets as banks scrambled for cash after France’s biggest listed bank, BNP Paribas, froze withdrawals from three funds. It cited U.S. subprime mortgage market problems.
This was the largest amount of money the ECB has ever injected into the markets in a single operation.
It routinely holds quick market operations when there is a cash imbalance but not since after the U.S. terror attacks in 2001 has the size neared Thursday’s level.
So much for subprime credit problems being contained to the US housing market.. Are we looking at a temporary psychological issue here, or are we looking at the start of credit market thats much tighter than the one we have today? And if credit is harder to come by and more expensive to get what does that mean for high priced real estate markets like Vancouver?
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Tony Danza Says:
August 9th, 2007 at 10:24 am
Nothing to see here folks…move along,
Canadian companies feeling pinch of U.S. mortgage defaults
“The U.S. credit crunch is hurting Canadian companies trying to arrange debt financing and will put a brake on the fast pace of mergers and acquisitions seen so far this year, market watchers say.
Credit markets have tightened dramatically over the last two months as mounting defaults in the U.S. mortgage sector have sent shock waves through global markets. Frightened by the mortgage-market troubles, investors have fled riskier assets.
Canadian companies, including Quebecor Inc. and CanWest Global Communications Inc., have shelved plans for high-yield debt issues in the U.S. because of the turbulence.
Even Canadian firms with superior credit ratings are putting off bond issues until things calm down, said Marc-Andre Gaudreau, vice-president for corporate bonds at Natcan Investment Management Inc. “There’s been an important increase in the cost of financing for companies,†Gaudreau said.
The Wall Street Journal reported this week that U.S. corporate bond issuance was down 77 per cent in July compared to June….â€
Edmonton Journal
Aug 9, 2007
http://tinyurl.com/36czzd
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markx Says:
August 9th, 2007 at 10:28 am
It’s been known for a while that France is one of the bagholders for this MBS mess, although 100+ billion is just shocking. I thought when LTCM collapsed, it was in the single digit billion range, right? And when Russia defaulted on its debt, it’s in the low double digit billion. Both of which were considered catastrophic events. Now the amount is in the triple digits, and people hardly pay any attention to it?
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Akhen Says:
August 9th, 2007 at 12:25 pm
The credit cycle is moving to tightening stance. This is the top of the cycle. Unless you have cash to burn, according to the Minsky Analysis, we are at the cycle where cash flow are no long able to service debt called the “Ponzi” stage.
The re-assurance by central bankers only serve to assuage market panic in the immediate short term. As for the intermediate term, market horizon is looking bleak.
Many RE speculators that are buying using their existing home’s equity is going to be in for some trouble.
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Akhen Says:
August 9th, 2007 at 12:36 pm
Globe and Mail article:
Credit worries roil markets
JOHN PARTRIDGE
14:48 EST Thursday, Aug 09, 2007
The Bank of Canada is intervening in the money market more heavily than usual Thursday amid continued turbulence in Canadian and U.S. stock markets.
The turmoil worsened after word that a French commercial bank has been burned by the meltdown of the U.S. subprime – or high-risk – mortgage market, along with a Wall Street Journal report that a second hedge fund operated by high-flying U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is now in subprime trouble.
Canada’s central bank took the rare step of publicly reassuring investors that it will help provide stability to financial markets and the domestic financial system.
“In light of current market conditions, the Bank of Canada would like to assure financial market participants and the public that it will provide liquidity to support the stability of the Canadian financial system and the continued functioning of financial markets,†the central bank said in a brief statement issued at about 10.45 a.m. (EDT) Thursday, although it emphasized that this is standard operating procedure.
“The Bank is closely monitoring developments, and will deal with issues as they arise.â€
Rest of article …
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Van Housing Blogger Says:
August 9th, 2007 at 1:08 pm
But we have mountains! And Olympics! That will save us from the global credit crunch, won’t it? Right BobR? Right RobC? And the Asians! They’ll save us too!!! Right?
Well, these events sure were a shock. No one – and I mean NO ONE – saw any trouble coming with the mortgage market. This really came out of left field. Who could possibly have expected such a thing to happen?
Good to know we’re safe here in Vancouver . . .
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Akhen Says:
August 9th, 2007 at 1:57 pm
Short the financials!
… wait until the Canadian banks start to tighten up and the RE market start to top out. Speculators holding 2 to 3 units with little down gets caught and squeezed. Oooh, I’m just waiting for this money making opportunity!
Can anyone say … D . E . F . A . U . L . T !
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mk-kids Says:
August 9th, 2007 at 2:35 pm
VHB! Hey welcome back! I se you still have your tongue planted firmly in cheek…
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blueskies Says:
August 9th, 2007 at 2:45 pm
VHB
great to see ya posting again…
who knew that all this could come back to bite our collective butts….. ?
certainly not the local bears….
it is all good
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Michael Says:
August 9th, 2007 at 2:57 pm
BooYah VHB is back and things are going as we forecast (slightly later than we all thought though). The party hasn’t even begun yet!!
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rentah Says:
August 9th, 2007 at 3:01 pm
VHB! [stop] at last [stop] URGENT [stop]
Bears tortured to point of renunciation on Wet Coast [stop] Small band resistance holds out [stop] Almost out of ammo [stop] freako locked in fight to death on other blog [stop] Please send bearish supplies [stop] reinforcements [stop] aaaaargh!
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rentah Says:
August 9th, 2007 at 3:04 pm
VHB, great to see a comment from you.
We hope life is going well in real-estate-sanity-land.
Nothing too unexpected here, but, guess what?, ‘you can’t time a top’.
Fireworks have been delayed.
Keep in touch.
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tulip-Mania2 Says:
August 9th, 2007 at 3:36 pm
Predictions:
Official numbers can’t hide
inflation anymore
Credit tightens
Economy Slows down
Olympic construction (Corporate Welfare) starts to wind down
Glut of new housing prompts developers to undercut flippers
Specuvestors head for the exit
Rennie, tries to stage “sell out†and fails
Tick Tock, Tick Tock,
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blueskies Says:
August 9th, 2007 at 5:09 pm
An Ode to Leverage
Leverage on the downside is like a water slide with razor blades for brakes and a pool of iodine welcoming you at the bottom…….
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Ken Says:
August 9th, 2007 at 5:18 pm
Akhen said…
Short the financials!
Oh dog crap I can hardly concentrate on my job. Been checkin every five minutes I have just maxed out on my shorts, 63,000.00 cashed out gain in three weeks. Oh yeh was money I should invested in RE when instead I brough it in to the dum stock market. Sorry I sold two years ago dumn bear I am! Wish I had shorted everything put the rest in CSB’s me one dumbass!
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blueskies Says:
August 9th, 2007 at 5:28 pm
rest in CSB’s me one dumbass!
geeez you are starting to sound like satv…. except you make sense
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Van Housing Blogger Says:
August 9th, 2007 at 5:41 pm
“Short the financials!”
Just short them? Not enough juice in that. I’ve been ‘putting’ a lot toward a very nice downpayment, thank you very much!
I’ve got your back, Vancouver bears!
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satv Says:
August 9th, 2007 at 6:52 pm
VHB
if you are a real vince,vance,vhb then I was above to tell all users last week that when ever crash will be above to happen, you will re open your site.are you the real vhb.
I still remember your last post “olsen on your side”there you promise”I will be back”.
if you are real you can solve this confusion,there was confusion between users when I wanted to take credit to knock you out,but solipsist and darachan refuse to confirm when you say”what is next”I goes “you are next sir”now no body have excess to your site to read that post, but if you are real you should reverse that blog post and post that here include all comments made by users.
for the market condition there is 52k m.o.m-drop in west vancouver detached,but I was agree with jim’s comment that correction was expected.
I think in april there was big jump in west vancouver detached,so I confirm jim was right on correction issue.thats mean market is still hot and next few months are customery for H.M.
so you did not mention if your site will re-open.
I have doubt over because when real whb left from here, there was a user name the one you got.
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digi Says:
August 9th, 2007 at 7:27 pm
Here’s another link on the squeeze.
Did you know that Capital One recently doubled interest rates on credit cards for some customers?
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digi Says:
August 9th, 2007 at 7:28 pm
Welcome back VHB! hang around for a while, things are getting interesting.
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blueskies Says:
August 9th, 2007 at 7:34 pm
satv!
whiskey! tango! foxtrot!..
the market is irrational…
if you try to think about it..
your head will explode….
divide by zero…
does not compute!…
danger! danger!
PHOOOOM!
OTOH that would explain some of your posts… ya thunk too hard!
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satv Says:
August 9th, 2007 at 7:54 pm
blueskies
seems like you know me are you from whisky,echo,siera,tango,1.if thats true then confirm delta whisky golf or delta whisky mike.
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blueskies Says:
August 9th, 2007 at 8:00 pm
satv
yes from the westside
i b a renter bear
gonna be a bullish vulture in due course
after today i am declaring myself
“scared shitless”…. so there
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Damir Says:
August 9th, 2007 at 8:00 pm
I thought when LTCM collapsed, it was in the single digit billion range, right?
You’re off by about three orders of magnitude. All-in LTCM was right around the trillion dollar mark – although we’re unlikely to ever know for sure because the positions were unwound behind closed doors.
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satv Says:
August 9th, 2007 at 8:03 pm
Sometime I sound crazy, because I loose so much sleep over tax issue
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satv Says:
August 9th, 2007 at 8:07 pm
the pope this user wear my user name which say”
satv said…
Sometime I sound crazy, because I loose so much sleep over tax issue
8/9/07 9:03 PM
the pope I file abuse I don’t know what is your policy and procedure.
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satv Says:
August 9th, 2007 at 8:45 pm
anyway
blueskies nice to find you here
can you explain,if you were waiting for crash since long time like inspired by vhb,or with your own wish.
blueskies
it doesn’t matter bear or bull after all we are human not animal, what we got here is our opinions.I don’t mind even if you have to knock me down in arguments.so please do not feel hesitate speak out what ever.
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Clarke Says:
August 9th, 2007 at 9:01 pm
I think this may finally be the tipping point. Those of us predicting that prices would fall in 2008 may be calling it a bit late.
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blueskies Says:
August 9th, 2007 at 9:02 pm
rules:
buy low sell high
what goes up must come down
if it sounds too good to be true, it is
a fool and their money are soon parted
…. and there is one born every minute
any of the above are broken at your own peril….
plus if there was no bad luck you wouldn’t have any country and western music
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satv Says:
August 9th, 2007 at 9:11 pm
rules:
buy low sell high
what goes up must come down
blueskies
I am not agree :housing have strength to colide with some part of nature unless there is tsunami,hurricane etc.otherwise history teach us lots.when there is original holder without subprime issues.
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satv Says:
August 9th, 2007 at 9:18 pm
and most important is that house stand on ground, I mean they are down to earth by nature, so hardly can fall because they can not dig hole unless attacked by force.
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blueskies Says:
August 9th, 2007 at 9:21 pm
uh… another rule:
if you find yourself in a hole…
stop digging….
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rentah Says:
August 9th, 2007 at 9:22 pm
Sub-prime and consequences estimated to be 40 to 50 times LTCM and ‘its’.
No easy bailout here.
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satv Says:
August 9th, 2007 at 9:28 pm
bleuskies
you might know me I am one of you but little bit better position.so our situation takes us to diffrent direction.
if i was you might have, had same feeling because when peak is scary it is possible to assume fall that stop us to be confident about it are you schdule for 6 tomo.if you getting late tell me anytime,or I will assume anytime.
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blueskies Says:
August 9th, 2007 at 9:30 pm
fascinating watching this…
almost deja vu from 2 year old blog entries
don’t panic
don’t panic
don’t panic
don’t panic…….
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satv Says:
August 9th, 2007 at 9:33 pm
Sub-prime and consequences estimated to be 40 to 50 times LTCM and ‘its’.
No easy bailout here.
rentha that is good one,but I am not sure that money government and banks pumped in is that a lottery for loser? because I never had problem with credit so I do not follow sp to much.
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satv Says:
August 9th, 2007 at 9:39 pm
definitley don’t panic be confident, if you buying roof for your self no matter where that goes you have bought that on current market value. then after world goes down and up who cares reduce your debt as you go,and enjoy your life.
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blueskies Says:
August 9th, 2007 at 9:45 pm
OTOH if you are not scared then you don’t really appreciate the gravity of the situation…..
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satv Says:
August 9th, 2007 at 9:49 pm
THE CENTER OF GRAVITY is very strong for me. I am in win,win situation all over because multi unit holder at the end if you win I can compressed my units to save my self.
and specialy those are on absolutely perfect location where bubble change his direction because bubble is short of length.
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blueskies Says:
August 9th, 2007 at 9:52 pm
any RE holding now is toxic!
live in or rent out or to die for.
long term depreciating asset class
sell now!!
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satv Says:
August 9th, 2007 at 9:57 pm
thanx blueskies
nice to meet you at vancouvers hot hot site vancouvercondo.info good night and you can countinue to post I will try to get back to you tomo.
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blueskies Says:
August 9th, 2007 at 10:01 pm
nighty nite satv
beer: Unibroue “La Fin Du Mond”
music: Led Zep “Your Time is Gonna Come”
blog: VHB… where are ya?
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Cecil Says:
August 9th, 2007 at 10:01 pm
Funny how Global news didn’t mention any of these events on the 6:00 news. The top business story was a comparison between Buick and Lexus automobiles.
That was followed by “brought to you by Remax…no one sells more real estate than Remax”. What a joke.
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the pope Says:
August 9th, 2007 at 11:14 pm
VHB: nope. No WAY could anyone have seen that coming. NO ONE thought the US market would collapse like that and NOBODY could have predicted the subprime collapse and its fallout on the wider credit markets.
Totally out of left field eh?
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exvancouverite Says:
August 10th, 2007 at 12:49 am
** Funny how Global news didn’t mention any of these events on the 6:00 news. The top business story was a comparison between Buick and Lexus automobiles. **
Yeah, we caught that, too. And there was the fade out to commercial…”here are today’s market numbers…”
There was a scroll of red numbers but no commentary.
Funny how that works.
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beta Says:
August 10th, 2007 at 7:57 am
Funny how Global news didn’t mention any of these events on the 6:00 news.
It was like news from the Bizarro universe. Events are taking place that will have real effect on every viewer’s lives, and they instead cover cars — the business equivalent of a ‘kitten in a tree’ story.
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Akhen Says:
August 10th, 2007 at 10:03 am
It’s not on the local media outlet as the effects hasn’t fully been felt on the streets.
That’s why by the time it hit the streets, market has already established the trend downward.
It’s way too late to protect any gains by then. It’ simply protection of capital at that point.
Hope you’re on the right side of the market … at least mentally!