friday free for all!
Its Friday and that means open-topic time. Here’s a few stories to help kick off the discussion:
-Thousands of new downtown condos available soon!
-The empty husk at 1133 W. Georgia to become a hotel
-Federal property sale attacked as a give-away
-City makes two offers to end strike
-Plenty of subprime money still available
-Countrywide’s CEO sees housing led recession
So what are you seeing out there? Post your news, thoughts and links here!
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September 3rd, 2007 at 6:01 am
Don’t get stuck with a bad tenant. Check out the web site http://www.Bad-Tenant.org . You can check to see if your next tenant is a bad tenant for free and you can let the world know about your bad tenants so that someone else does not get stuck with them like you did. Also there are free rental forms and landlord advice. Check it out. http://www.Bad-Tenat.org
August 28th, 2007 at 2:57 pm
Casey-shiller index finally showed a big decline of 3.2% for second quarter. Note that this is NATIONAL figure, which means the bubble areas are in a lot of hurt. Although by this time, nobody is denying the bursting of bubble. It’s finger pointing time!
August 28th, 2007 at 11:39 am
Cape said:
Your math is incorrect. Percentages already account for population, you don’t get to take 10% of the number just because we have 10% of the population.
It’s 10% of the products being marketed and distributed and not necessarily bought by the Canadian public only.
Consumer goods (this is true in Canada and in the US) can be purchased anywhere by the global community. You can live in Canada and can still buy a digital camera at one of the American eBay stores. Does that mean that you then suddenly become part of American census? What about people from HK, Europe and Africa?
That’s why I mentioned aggregated sales in North America being a 90% / 10% ratio relatively speaking. It simply means that out of 10 products sold and distributed in North America, roughly 9 goes to the US and 1 goes to Canada. Whether or not that 1 gets bought in Canada is not the concern. Basically, it’s a market demand allocation. US has a bigger market. That’s also why there are more selection consumer goods wise in the US compared to Canada.
So looking at a small % number can be quite deceiving for those who don’t understand that Canadian markets are VERY SMALL, about 4%, compared to the rest of the world. I think the US is about 60 to 70%. What does that tell you about our 5% subprime problem? Not a concern?
Think again.
August 27th, 2007 at 7:05 am
Toronto had this honour about 10 years ago and they milked it for everything it was worth. They even had posters all over the place. We had just moved there from France. I thought it was so stupid and embarassing.
“They love us! They reall Love us”
Really, it was one of the top 10 places to do buisness. Not to live.
August 26th, 2007 at 9:55 pm
patriotz:
I also think it has a hell of an attitude problem, but of course that’s just my opinion.
Mine too — and I think as more and more narcissists flock to Vancouver in order to brag to friends that they own a piece of the world’s most liveable RE, this attitude problem will get much worse.
August 26th, 2007 at 2:34 pm
Therefore 20% of Americans who are in subprime mortgages, 10% of 20 should be 2% for an equivalent Canadian version. But ours is 5%!
Your math is incorrect. Percentages already account for population, you don’t get to take 10% of the number just because we have 10% of the population.
August 26th, 2007 at 1:17 pm
“Vancouver the Most Livable City” Has anyone seen the posting of this story on any website maintained the the Economist – I’ve checked the The Economist Cities and Intelligence Unit sites but could not find it – perhaps I missed it. I also thought the Provice piece said – the “most liveable city for business travelers”, but other articles did say most livable.
August 26th, 2007 at 8:04 am
***STAMP ON EVIDENCE**
RITZ-CARLTON: project is a stamp on evidence that vancouver is not just an olympics venue,but vancouver is lot more beyond olymipcs.
FUNDAMENTAL SPUZM:carlton does not bank on olympics as that will complete in 2011.now we need to solve fundamental crisis.who’s fundamental’s are important:renters,buyers,sellers,investor’s in value 300k,1.million’s or millions of dollars.
MASS-TRANSIT:Vancouver got a massive transit system underway,after canada-line there will be another sky-train from broadway-ubc.
LETS COMPETE:any other city wants to compete with Vancouver they have to install trillions of dollars transit system that makes vancouver “sky is a limit”.then they will be missing beachs,
mountains, and squamish-whistler over the top of city.that makes vancouver “space is a limit”beyond black-comb.
VANCOUVER DRIVES:last week I have made a comment that says “lack of services in any other city will continue to drive other cities towards Vancouver”.
NUMBER BEYOND 1.(is there any other stage)than Vancouver number this week-cbc,sun artical,that 6 expensive from the forbes.com.we have to cross five more ladders thats…..
UP & COMING:up and coming……
August 26th, 2007 at 6:13 am
Patiently waiting said:
Although they say only 5% of new Canadian mortgages are subprime, I’m sure its much higher in Vancouver and is largely responsible for some of our extreme prices.
I say:
Whereas the Americans sub-prime comprised 20% of mortgages.
5% number for Canadian mortgages I considered to be extremely high.
Why? Because, some big ticket item Canadians consumer products usually comprised about less than 10% of aggregated North American sales. Which means, Americans buy a lot lot more than Canadians do. This has to do with their vast population compared to us, which makes sense because they have more states than we do provinces. Housing is a big ticket North American borne consumer product too, except it’s made locally. You need loans to buy a home right if you don’t have cash right?!? Therefore 20% of Americans who are in subprime mortgages, 10% of 20 should be 2% for an equivalent Canadian version. But ours is 5%!
Our numbers are just as equally high after taking population into account.
Regardless of whom to blame, recent TED spread (Treasury Euro Dollar) spread has shown a very very low confidence in the banking lending practice in the States, so low that it doubled the skepticism since 2001. A recession sign? Also, other form of loans in the States are getting harder to apply these days too.
August 25th, 2007 at 1:27 pm
New York is having some construction woes. It’s the same all over, I imagine.
August 25th, 2007 at 12:27 pm
An example of creative financing might involve giving an employee a $5.00 hr raise.
The employee cashes the paycheck, and gives back the money to the employer in cash; six months later the employee applies for a loan, based on the last six months pay stubs.
Another example:
Seller finances the purchase at inflated price, and inflated, borderline usury interest rates. Year or so later purchaser refinances with inflated paycheck stubs.
This works well, until prices stop climbing.
August 25th, 2007 at 12:05 pm
As I have stated in the past Genworth is our canary. They are giving out 40/40 mortgages zero down. Being owned by GE who just shut one of their mortgage units, Genworth should come under scrutiny. I think it will take a few weeks to work its way out.
No way Freako, Gen is not the canary, we don’t have much subprime in Canada.
We have creative financing.
August 25th, 2007 at 11:41 am
I have posted a list of current condo buildings under construction and their completion date on my blog.
Awesome, I miss VHB’s completion charts.
August 25th, 2007 at 11:23 am
markx
I have posted a list of current condo buildings under construction and their completion date on my blog.
http://vannumbers.wordpress.com/
August 25th, 2007 at 10:12 am
Although they say only 5% of new Canadian mortgages are subprime, I’m sure its much higher in Vancouver and is largely responsible for some of our extreme prices.
As I have stated in the past Genworth is our canary. They are giving out 40/40 mortgages zero down. Being owned by GE who just shut one of their mortgage units, Genworth should come under scrutiny. I think it will take a few weeks to work its way out.
Expiring pre-approvals and cutback on subprime SHOULD slow the Vancouver market considerably this fall. If it doesn’t slow, I don’t know what gives. YOY sales should collapse.
August 25th, 2007 at 8:14 am
Canada losing subprime lending
http://www.theglobeandmail.com.....y/Business
This is the best local bubble news so far.
Although they say only 5% of new Canadian mortgages are subprime, I’m sure its much higher in Vancouver and is largely responsible for some of our extreme prices.
August 25th, 2007 at 8:12 am
I am currently writing a fiction novel, and it goes something like this:
We received an anonymous tip from a blogger who provided links to several Real Estate discussion boards.
We followed up on his/ hers suggestion, and discovered many of the regular posters were heavily involved in real estate, and most had very obvious irregularities in their tax returns.
The abuses ranged from minor interpretations of the bulletins to major blatant fraud.
Some have been deducting the mortgage interest costs of their domicile.
Others had bogus deduction claims, charged interest to themselves, rented properties for much less than market value to family members, and underreported revenues in many convoluted methods.
Please note:
Any resemblance to real people is purely coincidental.
August 25th, 2007 at 7:50 am
markx:
Rents are reasonable relative to manual labour income, not student loan guidelines.
Basically, college funding support is somewhat set nationally, but cost of living is set by local wages.
Student loans are an entirely different conversation. I’ll give you an anecdotal example from a friend of mine. He’s recently married, wife has a good job, and he’s going back to school. He quit his crap job and applied for a loan. He was recently approved for $15k for a year. His tuition is roughly $8k I think. Now, his wife makes enough money for them both to live on, but the tuition might have been a stretch. As a taxpayer supporting that loan, and somebody who worked through school, I think its more than fair, but still not too much.
Oh yes, and of course they live in Kits.
August 25th, 2007 at 4:39 am
It has its share of problems, but they just aren’t as bad as other cities in the world
Disagree. Vancouver has a very serious property crime problem – house and car breakins – which is much worse than the rest of Canada, and is bad even by US standards. It also has a terrible homeless problem. And drug problem. All of the previous related of course.
Apart from social issues, Vancouver has the worst transportation problems of any Canadian city, despite being far from the biggest.
I also think it has a hell of an attitude problem, but of course that’s just my opinion.
August 24th, 2007 at 10:18 pm
From Dazeebee’s Forbes link above:
Vancouver, Canada
P/E: 28.61
Vancouver has one of the lowest rental yield rates of any city measured, at 3.19%, despite high prices. Across Canada, despite the same tax system, the effective annualized return rate resulted in a much better P/E of 16.31. Owners need to be aware that such a large spread keeps the rental market strong and the market for sellers more stagnant. The pool of buyers remains relatively small as renters can get the same property at significantly less cost and invest the difference.
Us in a bubble, haven’t these Forbes idiots heard that we are getting the Olympics… Tsssk Tsssk!
August 24th, 2007 at 8:52 pm
Warren:
Rents are reasonable relative to manual labour income, not student loan guidelines. The lack of “student ghetto” such as McGill’s, means student often live in the far suburbs and commute to school. Thus it’s a bit hard for students.
Basically, college funding support is somewhat set nationally, but cost of living is set by local wages.
August 24th, 2007 at 3:36 pm
Canadian debt agency to review rating criteria
http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2007/08/24/dbrs.html
“Air Canada, NAV Canada, Transat AT, the Ontario government, the Greater Toronto Airports Authority, and the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan are just some of the groups that have millions tied up in ABCP that is, in some cases, now completely illiquid.
While most holders of this debt express public confidence they’ll eventually get their money back, it may take some time.”
August 24th, 2007 at 2:38 pm
“Mayor Sam Sullivan credits the people living in Vancouver — and their strong social and environmental ethic — for the city’s top ranking.”
I could never be a politician. How can somebody actually say that.
August 24th, 2007 at 2:34 pm
World’s Most Overpriced Real Estate Markets – We’re number 6!
http://www.forbes.com/forbesli.....state.html
August 24th, 2007 at 2:26 pm
Subprime bailout means that the stupid won’t have to pay.
“..I always had the view that the Fed’s job was to take the punchbowl away when the party got too boisterous. Yet here they were with a snap 50-beep discount rate cut, seemingly not only refilling the punchbowl but also giving the drunks back their car keys.”
August 24th, 2007 at 2:18 pm
That NS building is the tip of the iceberg. I doubt that many absentee owners care what their tenants do as long as the rent is paid. That attitude results in overcrowding and/or undesirables in the building. I’ve seen a few currently listed units downtown that have been trashed by the tenants. Yesterday I saw a place in Coal Harbour that had beds in the closets.
In this market, few RE agents take the time to stage a place. Maybe the Economist researchers should see what we hide behind closed doors.
August 24th, 2007 at 1:53 pm
warren,
My main concern isn’t rents but the deteriorating quality of housing for those with modest incomes. We are in a rainforest climate so buildings need to be attended to or they become rotten mold farms. Also, all the really nasty basement dungeons where nobody should be living.
August 24th, 2007 at 1:29 pm
marx:
Manual jobs are plentiful, and rents are not that high. It sucks to be a student here, though. I would hate to be going to UBC and have to live on student loan/scholarships.
If rents are reasonable, why would it be tough as a student?
I don’t know about #1, but this city is very “liveable”. It has its share of problems, but they just aren’t as bad as other cities in the world. Real Estate is of course beyond reality for many, but I believe shelter (rents) are fairly priced.
August 24th, 2007 at 12:47 pm
see i told you so:
http://www.reportonbusiness.co.....iness/home
August 24th, 2007 at 12:44 pm
“It’s the only land left in the city,” he said. “You just can’t find major downtown sites any more. We’ve been undersupplied in the luxury hotel market so hoteliers have been wanting in.” – from 1133 Georgia arcticle…
Well, I am sure that if the luxury hotel market ends up being a bust the government will bail them out…maybe paying for hobos to stay in luxury hotels after the olympics (can I legaly use this word?) is good for the economy…
August 24th, 2007 at 11:33 am
Rental Strike
http://www.northshoreoutlook.com/
North Shore landlord fails to deal with Super who lets junkies and prostitutes in family building.
Super: ‘Sire, the tenants are revolting.
Landlord (in his West Van home): ‘They certainly are.’
August 24th, 2007 at 8:08 am
We need to see how “soon” is the “coming soon” of downtown condos. There does seem to be a lot of condos near completion in downtown, but more are in the pipeline. “The W” won’t be available for a while. Most of the new construction since the RE party kicked into high gear are just starting the construction. I think I will wait a year or two for the flood of new completions.
Vancouver is a pretty livable place for trades people today, and people without much education. Manual jobs are plentiful, and rents are not that high. It sucks to be a student here, though. I would hate to be going to UBC and have to live on student loan/scholarships.
August 24th, 2007 at 6:58 am
“City’s healthy environment and climate are big draws for people living here; yet many are also disgruntled with the traffic problems and rising house prices. “Who is it livable for? For all or just a group of people?”
Just a group of smart people who got in early and left all other suckers on the sidelines
August 24th, 2007 at 6:27 am
Vancouver rated most livable city by the Economist… again.
http://tinyurl.com/2yw6nm
http://tinyurl.com/2hcwup