Friday free-for-all

This is your open topic post for Friday August 31st. Whats new this week?

-We’re the 2nd most overpriced market in North America!
-BC government provides ‘home kits‘ for disadvantaged.
-Locals drive the island market
-Sub-prime problems hit high-end housing
-Housing continues to be a drag on growth
Creative loans got us into this mess, can they get us out?

What are you seeing? Will our market soar or sour in the fall? What happens after 2010? Post your thoughts, news and links here and have a great long weekend!

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freako
freako
13 years ago

we have $11,257 increase over houses in $$$ volume,if your monthly calculation comes to $4000 isn't that equal to 4 month of payment of profit for the bulls.Yes, if you believe in perpetual motion machines.

satv
satv
13 years ago

hahaha she is hottest aunt in vancouver.

Jim
Jim
13 years ago

satv:Well said. In answer to your question, I think the blue cow crows at midnight.

satv
satv
13 years ago

JIM,there are different metrics, I have notice which confuse us some time for example your neighbrour's "chandler" calculate vancouver average in july $831,554 do you have any Idea.why is that different than stat from rebgv that says"$714.810 for july.

Jim
Jim
13 years ago

Prices up. Inventory flat. Hmmmmm.Somewhat comforting. I guess I didn't quite pick the top perfectly. As to affordability: its stratified.

satv
satv
13 years ago

GVRD?you mean METRO VANCOUVER?

si fu
si fu
13 years ago

Rich foreigners " eager to move their money out of country and invest it in real estate in North America ". That phenomenon explains the London RE bonanza, and probably does explain part of what is going on in Vancouver. Lots of condos are either empty most of the time or rented out by offshore owners. Unlike London, I don't see the super-rich actually living here, with the exception of one or two of Li Ka Shing's kids. Once investor confidence runs out we may see the so-called "black money" moving to more favourable markets. Just because they want to keep their money safe doesn't mean it has to be here. Toronto is cheaper and not so bubbly in comparison to the GVRD.

satv
satv
13 years ago

Fraser Valley benchmarksAugust $ 526,879July*** $ 519,896change in %1.3%Median PriceAugust $485,000July*** $472,000August 2007 sales were second highest compare to 2005.Market is very strong than prediction so far.

satv
satv
13 years ago

Best WishesThe Pope where are you,and where is Will Wertheim,Solipsist as well.hope you guys are in pink of your health.wish you all the best and back to desk ASAP.Freako,we have $11,257 increase over houses in $$$ volume,if your monthly calculation comes to $4000 isn't that equal to 4 month of payment of profit for the bulls.July benchmark $714,810August^^^^^^^^ $726,067

patriotz
patriotz
13 years ago

“You need to know when you are straying from fundamentals. It’s hard, when you are in the middle of the storm, to know.”Hard to calculate positive cash flow Dave? Maybe for you.Cabal of foreigners from Asia and Europe was gradually immigrating into Vancouver over the last century.Oh, these "dumb rich foreigners" explanations just won't go away. Over the last century you say? So why was there are crash in the early 1980's and a bear market in the 1990's? Let's throw in the Great Depression too. Don't tell me, 2001 marked a "new paradigm".Also, I suggest you try to figure out why demand curves slope down. Hint: the deep pockets always pay less they are willing and able to.

freako
freako
13 years ago

Seattle up. San Jose up. Even the most speculative LA saw prices up 2%Yup. Crash????Gimme a break. San Jose and LA are down down down on quality adjusted indexes such as Case-Shiller. As for Seattle it is indeed up even when quality adjusted, but have you seen the inventory lately? More than doubled since January. And Seattle never did catch fire in the first place. Even with recent runup, their prices are almost half ours, despite having some huge employers.As for Lereah, who says housing has to fall 20% for him to have been wrong. Jeez, maintained 5% appreciation until the roof caved in on him. The market is almost illiquid right now, the U.S. has an amazing 8.9 months of inventory, and rising rapidly. Remember, the stats are lagging and the liquidity crises won't show up until September data.

tulip-Mania2
tulip-Mania2
13 years ago

Whitebear says:David Lereah is wrong? By what standards are you talking about? Has housing dropped 20% in the US?I see drops of up to 70% and it has only just begun.David Lereah admits he was wrong.He says:“The bears were bears way too early, and the bulls were bulls too late,” he said. “You need to know when you are straying from fundamentals. It’s hard, when you are in the middle of the storm, to know.”you believe him don't you?It's hard to believe one of your fellows, "professionals" as you like to say, was so far off, and he is actually educated, unlike the rest of you charlatans.

White Bear
White Bear
13 years ago

"Thanks to curmudgeonmisanthopic's link. I found it interesting, because the same bs in the article was peddled heavily by This shill who made a killing"David Lereah is wrong? By what standards are you talking about? Has housing dropped 20% in the US? All bears can bring up is that housing index dropping 50%. Housing index consists of a bunch of housing builders stocks and is no way indicative of the housing prices. <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/103394/Best-and-Worst-U.S.-Housing-Marketshttp://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/1033… />Seattle up. San Jose up. Even the most speculative LA saw prices up 2%Yup. Crash????

freako
freako
13 years ago

The size of the down payment alone (20%) increased by about $2,400 over the past month. If sales stay high this month, there is something very strange going on. This should be well beyond what affordability suggests. Either there is serious mortgage fraud, or a hell of a lot of foreigners are buying indiscriminately.

OWG
OWG
13 years ago

freako: "I know I have said this before, but how is this friggin possible? GV SFH benchmark to $726,067?."I know you hate this theory of mine but I am still urging that we adopt my "Great Very Rich Diaspora (GVRD) theory" as the basis for explaining the last 6 years of real estate boom in Vancouver. At the same time this theory explains why GVRD changed their name into Metro Vancouver – "they" didn't want to make things too obvious.Here's how the GVRD theory works: Cabal of foreigners from Asia and Europe was gradually immigrating into Vancouver over the last century. Evidence? 300K Canadian passport holders in HK. And for every one of them their mothers, fathers, grandfathers, grandmothers, cousins, aunts, uncles, etc eager to move their money out of country and invest it in real estate in North America.… Read more »

misanthropic curmudg
misanthropic curmudg
13 years ago

GV SFH benchmark to $726,067?. what we need are some new superlatives, the current ones just don't cut it anymore….

OWG
OWG
13 years ago

726K for a home… So with zero down and today's rates that would be around 5K a month in mortgage payments…As Scotia Banks says: You may be richer then you think! Damn those rich foreigners!!!

freako
freako
13 years ago

I know I have said this before, but how is this friggin possible? GV SFH benchmark to $726,067?.We are heading straight for most expensive in North America.Monthly payments on the median benchmark after 20% down ($145,213) are $3,661.28. Add property taxes and other expenses, and we are well north of $4K a month.

OWG
OWG
13 years ago

Hmmm…So the new average price of a home as reported by Vancouver Sun has hit 726K…Mortgage crisis? What mortgage crisis?

tulip-Mania2
tulip-Mania2
13 years ago

Thanks to curmudgeonmisanthopic's link. I found it interesting, because the same bs in the article was peddled heavily by This shill who made a killing

squidly77
squidly77
13 years ago

edmontons toast..donecalgarys closewonder whose next..it is getting a wee bit close to you guyssome had best get ready to hide under there bedstinyurl.com/2gy94mereb.comedmonton/calgary..soon to be vancouvermost specuvestors are gonna get pummeled..tinyurl.com/3ajax4

satv
satv
13 years ago

misanthropic curmudgeon said… satv:STFU!your schtik is irritating miss,here is installment from SPIDERMAN'S net.Canada's central bank held interest rates steady Wednesday, abandoning its July rate tightening and adopting more of a wait-and-see approach after a volatile summer in the financial markets.As expected, the Bank of Canada left its target for the overnight rate — what the major banks charge each other for overnight loans — unchanged at 4.5 per cent.courtesy-cbc news

Drachen
Drachen
13 years ago

Nice article misanthrope.My favourite bit;"“Recent volatility in the stock market may trigger further investment in real estate as purchasers move to reallocate their holdings,” he said."I love the idea that volatility in Real Estate has CAUSED market problems so why not put your money where it's safe, in Real Estate!

rentah
rentah
13 years ago

m c:1. simply ignore satv, like most of us do.2. Thanks for the G&M link: if you look again quickly (before it's edited out), you'll spot a wonderful Freudian typo in the penultimate paragraph:"The high-end hosing market has been booming for several years now, attracting a growing number of affluent purchasers who are taking advantage of the increased equity and the capital gains exemption for a principle residence."Hosing, to be sure.

misanthropic curmudg
misanthropic curmudg
13 years ago

satv: STFU! your schtik is irritating