Friday free-for-all
This is your open topic post for Friday August 31st. Whats new this week?
-We’re the 2nd most overpriced market in North America!
-BC government provides ‘home kits‘ for disadvantaged.
-Locals drive the island market
-Sub-prime problems hit high-end housing
-Housing continues to be a drag on growth
-Creative loans got us into this mess, can they get us out?
What are you seeing? Will our market soar or sour in the fall? What happens after 2010? Post your thoughts, news and links here and have a great long weekend!
September 7th, 2007 at 3:45 pm
we have $11,257 increase over houses in $$$ volume,if your monthly calculation comes to $4000 isn't that equal to 4 month of payment of profit for the bulls.Yes, if you believe in perpetual motion machines.
September 6th, 2007 at 4:25 pm
hahaha she is hottest aunt in vancouver.
September 6th, 2007 at 3:03 pm
satv:Well said. In answer to your question, I think the blue cow crows at midnight.
September 6th, 2007 at 11:26 am
JIM,there are different metrics, I have notice which confuse us some time for example your neighbrour's "chandler" calculate vancouver average in july $831,554 do you have any Idea.why is that different than stat from rebgv that says"$714.810 for july.
September 6th, 2007 at 11:04 am
Prices up. Inventory flat. Hmmmmm.Somewhat comforting. I guess I didn't quite pick the top perfectly. As to affordability: its stratified.
September 6th, 2007 at 10:37 am
GVRD?you mean METRO VANCOUVER?
September 6th, 2007 at 10:20 am
Rich foreigners " eager to move their money out of country and invest it in real estate in North America ". That phenomenon explains the London RE bonanza, and probably does explain part of what is going on in Vancouver. Lots of condos are either empty most of the time or rented out by offshore owners. Unlike London, I don't see the super-rich actually living here, with the exception of one or two of Li Ka Shing's kids. Once investor confidence runs out we may see the so-called "black money" moving to more favourable markets. Just because they want to keep their money safe doesn't mean it has to be here. Toronto is cheaper and not so bubbly in comparison to the GVRD.
September 6th, 2007 at 8:55 am
Fraser Valley benchmarksAugust $ 526,879July*** $ 519,896change in %1.3%Median PriceAugust $485,000July*** $472,000August 2007 sales were second highest compare to 2005.Market is very strong than prediction so far.
September 6th, 2007 at 8:30 am
Best WishesThe Pope where are you,and where is Will Wertheim,Solipsist as well.hope you guys are in pink of your health.wish you all the best and back to desk ASAP.Freako,we have $11,257 increase over houses in $$$ volume,if your monthly calculation comes to $4000 isn't that equal to 4 month of payment of profit for the bulls.July benchmark $714,810August^^^^^^^^ $726,067
September 6th, 2007 at 2:53 am
“You need to know when you are straying from fundamentals. It’s hard, when you are in the middle of the storm, to know.â€Hard to calculate positive cash flow Dave? Maybe for you.Cabal of foreigners from Asia and Europe was gradually immigrating into Vancouver over the last century.Oh, these "dumb rich foreigners" explanations just won't go away. Over the last century you say? So why was there are crash in the early 1980's and a bear market in the 1990's? Let's throw in the Great Depression too. Don't tell me, 2001 marked a "new paradigm".Also, I suggest you try to figure out why demand curves slope down. Hint: the deep pockets always pay less they are willing and able to.
September 5th, 2007 at 7:33 pm
Seattle up. San Jose up. Even the most speculative LA saw prices up 2%Yup. Crash????Gimme a break. San Jose and LA are down down down on quality adjusted indexes such as Case-Shiller. As for Seattle it is indeed up even when quality adjusted, but have you seen the inventory lately? More than doubled since January. And Seattle never did catch fire in the first place. Even with recent runup, their prices are almost half ours, despite having some huge employers.As for Lereah, who says housing has to fall 20% for him to have been wrong. Jeez, maintained 5% appreciation until the roof caved in on him. The market is almost illiquid right now, the U.S. has an amazing 8.9 months of inventory, and rising rapidly. Remember, the stats are lagging and the liquidity crises won't show up until September data.
September 5th, 2007 at 4:03 pm
Whitebear says:David Lereah is wrong? By what standards are you talking about? Has housing dropped 20% in the US?I see drops of up to 70% and it has only just begun.David Lereah admits he was wrong.He says:“The bears were bears way too early, and the bulls were bulls too late,†he said. “You need to know when you are straying from fundamentals. It’s hard, when you are in the middle of the storm, to know.â€you believe him don't you?It's hard to believe one of your fellows, "professionals" as you like to say, was so far off, and he is actually educated, unlike the rest of you charlatans.
September 5th, 2007 at 3:34 pm
"Thanks to curmudgeonmisanthopic's link. I found it interesting, because the same bs in the article was peddled heavily by This shill who made a killing"David Lereah is wrong? By what standards are you talking about? Has housing dropped 20% in the US? All bears can bring up is that housing index dropping 50%. Housing index consists of a bunch of housing builders stocks and is no way indicative of the housing prices. <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/103394/Best-and-Worst-U.S.-Housing-Marketshttp://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/1033… />Seattle up. San Jose up. Even the most speculative LA saw prices up 2%Yup. Crash????
September 5th, 2007 at 3:10 pm
The size of the down payment alone (20%) increased by about $2,400 over the past month. If sales stay high this month, there is something very strange going on. This should be well beyond what affordability suggests. Either there is serious mortgage fraud, or a hell of a lot of foreigners are buying indiscriminately.
September 5th, 2007 at 3:06 pm
freako: "I know I have said this before, but how is this friggin possible? GV SFH benchmark to $726,067?."I know you hate this theory of mine but I am still urging that we adopt my "Great Very Rich Diaspora (GVRD) theory" as the basis for explaining the last 6 years of real estate boom in Vancouver. At the same time this theory explains why GVRD changed their name into Metro Vancouver – "they" didn't want to make things too obvious.Here's how the GVRD theory works: Cabal of foreigners from Asia and Europe was gradually immigrating into Vancouver over the last century. Evidence? 300K Canadian passport holders in HK. And for every one of them their mothers, fathers, grandfathers, grandmothers, cousins, aunts, uncles, etc eager to move their money out of country and invest it in real estate in North America. Situation with other countries is probably similar I only remember HK numbers because Vancouver Sun ran an article recently. Their number reached critical mass in 2001 which combined with the Olympic Games caused a massive increase in property prices in Vancouver. Given that all of them are Canadian citizens all their purchases are "local" in theory. Now that's a simple and elegant explanation that deserves a medal!!!
September 5th, 2007 at 2:50 pm
GV SFH benchmark to $726,067?. what we need are some new superlatives, the current ones just don't cut it anymore….
September 5th, 2007 at 2:45 pm
726K for a home… So with zero down and today's rates that would be around 5K a month in mortgage payments…As Scotia Banks says: You may be richer then you think! Damn those rich foreigners!!!
September 5th, 2007 at 2:42 pm
I know I have said this before, but how is this friggin possible? GV SFH benchmark to $726,067?.We are heading straight for most expensive in North America.Monthly payments on the median benchmark after 20% down ($145,213) are $3,661.28. Add property taxes and other expenses, and we are well north of $4K a month.
September 5th, 2007 at 2:41 pm
Hmmm…So the new average price of a home as reported by Vancouver Sun has hit 726K…Mortgage crisis? What mortgage crisis?
September 5th, 2007 at 1:49 pm
Thanks to curmudgeonmisanthopic's link. I found it interesting, because the same bs in the article was peddled heavily by This shill who made a killing
September 5th, 2007 at 1:23 pm
edmontons toast..donecalgarys closewonder whose next..it is getting a wee bit close to you guyssome had best get ready to hide under there bedstinyurl.com/2gy94mereb.comedmonton/calgary..soon to be vancouvermost specuvestors are gonna get pummeled..tinyurl.com/3ajax4
September 5th, 2007 at 8:33 am
misanthropic curmudgeon said… satv:STFU!your schtik is irritating miss,here is installment from SPIDERMAN'S net.Canada's central bank held interest rates steady Wednesday, abandoning its July rate tightening and adopting more of a wait-and-see approach after a volatile summer in the financial markets.As expected, the Bank of Canada left its target for the overnight rate — what the major banks charge each other for overnight loans — unchanged at 4.5 per cent.courtesy-cbc news
September 5th, 2007 at 7:51 am
Nice article misanthrope.My favourite bit;"“Recent volatility in the stock market may trigger further investment in real estate as purchasers move to reallocate their holdings,†he said."I love the idea that volatility in Real Estate has CAUSED market problems so why not put your money where it's safe, in Real Estate!
September 5th, 2007 at 7:37 am
m c:1. simply ignore satv, like most of us do.2. Thanks for the G&M link: if you look again quickly (before it's edited out), you'll spot a wonderful Freudian typo in the penultimate paragraph:"The high-end hosing market has been booming for several years now, attracting a growing number of affluent purchasers who are taking advantage of the increased equity and the capital gains exemption for a principle residence."Hosing, to be sure.
September 5th, 2007 at 6:15 am
satv: STFU! your schtik is irritating
September 5th, 2007 at 6:09 am
and just when you thought it was safe to go outside: http://tinyurl.com/2coyjk
September 4th, 2007 at 10:30 pm
darachan,I repeat,Vancouver is a self sustained city.what I was trying to bring from USA is that,this former governer(bush!bush!bush)think that american sub-prime is a cause for "turmoil"in global market so he has his team ready to put sheild by as little to much once they will implement that,than they can tell the rest of the world that they have no more cause to disturb the market.So I have deliver that message to our posters(users)when he says"global cause"that will force other government to prepare to provide security future,when nature play devil a piece of grass can save people from drowning.so i was trying to explain governments are investing in spidermans net to save people by two feet above floor,what does that mean?is that they can put people back into elevator to go back to their unit and countinue to pay mortgage."natural disaster does not exist unless they come and wipes everything".so far so good Vancouver is doing awesome and will be countinue….
September 4th, 2007 at 2:19 pm
Satv: You stupid f–k, if you think Bush's bail out will work why don't you buy some of the commercial paper held by these greedy fools?Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC), Impac Mortgage Holdings (NYSE: IMH), Accredited Home LendersBut now the roof is on fire, as all of those exotic mortgages threaten to toast the NAR's crop of gullible buyers
September 4th, 2007 at 11:25 am
satvAren't you the one who argues that the market in the US has nothing to do with the price of real estate in Vancouver?
September 4th, 2007 at 9:56 am
Bangalore had the highest rental yield. There, landlords can command a 9.7% return per year on the value of their property something that undoubtedly stokes the jealousy of countrymen in Mumbai, where the strict rent controls of the local Maharashtra Rent Act beat rental yields down to 3.27%.VANCOUVER:have advantage of international language,there are more than 17 language in India.BANGLORE is located in the southside where ordanary indian investor does not encourage them self to invest there.MOST of investor are related to I T INDUSRIES,there are lots of technical institute's and engineering collage in banglore that city is beautiful from student point of view,as that provide affordable education to all international students.student who does not get merits or distinctions,and are poor to afford education can get there,and most likely to get addmision for $3,000 donation to related institute regardless percentage.very similar to get dental service or surrgical needs on chief prices and saving is like taking extra vocations.finish your education and smile):
September 3rd, 2007 at 4:58 pm
Any predictions for August? let's see: credit market rout leading to hard to obtain mortgages.. buyers deer-in-the-headlights moment.. I'd say not up, maybe stagnant
September 3rd, 2007 at 3:43 pm
"Among markets showing gains, Vancouver was one of the standouts.Its average July price of $581,108 was up $16,406 or 2.9 per cent from June and was 12.2 per cent higher than in July 2006."http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2007/08/15/house-prices.htmlAny predictions for August?
September 3rd, 2007 at 2:18 pm
Stop the Subprime BailoutCan you spare a few thousand dollars to pay somebody else's mortgage?
September 3rd, 2007 at 8:39 am
satv…i was looking for a link that could be usefull for youi had no luckbut when i read your postsi tried to imagine who was writing them is this close..tinyurl.com/2a24l7
September 3rd, 2007 at 7:59 am
Well to use that analogy, there has been some ######### in the past. The parent dropped the child off the second story balcony. It will be hard to slow the fall by holding a finger or two. I think governments are investing in spiderman's net,you may still be falling from 34th floor the net can save you by 2 feet above ground.
September 3rd, 2007 at 7:47 am
Two top US economists present scary scenarios for US economy; House prices in some areas may fall as much as 50% – Housing contraction threatens a broader recession Hi Squidly77 hope you don't mind me using your link " Because price gains were larger and more widespread this time compared with past speculative booms, the risk of “substantial†price declines is greater"
September 3rd, 2007 at 6:11 am
"It's a great time to buy or sell real estate!".In a negative-sum game, only the house wins.
September 3rd, 2007 at 5:20 am
bubble cities to see 50% crash tinyurl.com/yvvapc
September 2nd, 2007 at 11:04 pm
FUN FACT-where is jeff part2Jeff was rediscovered in "edmonton busted issue" the bottom line was realtor having hard time selling under list.that remind me of Jeff he was also having hard time in van west.finally he sold 4 unit in van west,then made excuse of vocation and moved to edmonton. acctualy I think jeff has given interview to edmonton sun and told them "he is having hard time selling underlist".good job jeff I think you will move from edmonton to calgary next.runaway realtor jeff will be discover again.
September 2nd, 2007 at 10:47 pm
misanthropic curmudgeon said… "It's a great time to buy or sell real estate!"."It's always a great time for my commission!". 9/2/07 8:50 PM or get eviction notice, great time to hire budget rental.because owner is going to sell 4sure.
September 2nd, 2007 at 7:50 pm
"It's a great time to buy or sell real estate!"."It's always a great time for my commission!".
September 2nd, 2007 at 6:13 pm
My personal favourite is the commonly seen realtor blurb: "It's a great time to buy or sell real estate!".
September 2nd, 2007 at 2:39 pm
Agents definitely want sellers to lower prices so that the market clears again. On the other hand, they don't want buyers to think that it is a downturn, because that will reduce demand further.That is why we hear talks such as "return to balanced market", because they don't really want prices up or down, they just people to buy and sell properties.Jack is right in some regards, but not about realtors not being burdened by correction. The correction is about more than just falling prices. It is about a precipitous dropoff in demand that has reduced sales to a crawl. No agent wants that, and there will be a huge shakeout.
September 2nd, 2007 at 2:34 pm
Hope in the market is similar to any parental hope when they teach their kids to walk by holding their fingers, that one day their kids will start walking, without any support.Well to use that analogy, there has been some child abuse in the past. The parent dropped the child off the second story balcony. It will be hard to slow the fall by holding a finger or two.
September 2nd, 2007 at 12:20 pm
Be nice to Jack, or you will be invited out for "a cup of coffee"
September 2nd, 2007 at 12:15 pm
(you don't know) JackHmm except that the boom has brought record prices AND record turnover of properties. What kind of insane real estate agent wants a return to the status quo? Especially when their numbers have more than tripled in the last few years and their income has shot up in spite of increased competition.When the crash comes most RE agents will be forced to find other work and they will likely never again see the kind of yearly wages they've been making for the past few years whether they change careers or not. You, and your (fictional?) 'many agents' obviously haven't got a clue.
September 2nd, 2007 at 11:59 am
jack,Look at what's happening in the US. Realtors (TM) are suffering. The problem is the prices have so far to fall before they become what "people can afford." Volume is so low on the way down that some Zip Codes can have months with zero sales. Once it became obvious that prices were dropping, the market died. Realtors (TM) are going hungry.Here in Vancouver, it will take a long to time to bring back budget-minded buyers back into the market. When you see me out house-hunting, this will be a much different place. It will be after years of pain and price-drops for delusional sellers. Blood will have already ran through the streets and poured into the gutters. The real estate market will be a wasteland. This will take a long time, and only a very few survivors will still be in the real estate business.
September 2nd, 2007 at 10:28 am
all they want is your moneyall of it
September 2nd, 2007 at 10:22 am
"must be different there i guessdo they play the market down in vancouver ?"Hi Squidly:It's hard to believe that the industry promotes affordability based on what our resident realtor/blogger/nutcase is peddling.
September 2nd, 2007 at 10:04 am
cant speak for vancouverbut here in calgary and edmonton the real estate industry are always trying to pump the prices upscare tactics galorebetter buy now or be priced out forever..they are not making any more land..good time to buy..prices expected to rise another 12% this year..must be different there i guessdo they play the market down in vancouver ?is the industry discouraging higher prices ?