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September 2nd, 2007 at 10:03 am
“Some RE agents would rather have prices that more people can afford so that they have a broader audience to market to and sell. This would cause more volume which would result in more money for them.”
Yes, some.
But not the ones whose net worth doubled or tripled as it has during this bubble.
Anyway, you are just too obvious Jack!
September 2nd, 2007 at 10:01 am
TULIP,
I am glad that your still pluged in.
you are a kind of driver who comes to complete stop on red light according to comon sense,but you are not following the law inforcement which permit you to cross the redlight.
I got government on right hand to support me to grow up.
I got you on left hand to rent my condo.stay there to help me on left hand.
for realtor spuzm,
I swear and affirm in her majesty queen elizabeth the second.
THAT’I am not a realtor,there are two street in the world one for tulip one for satv.catch you guys later.
tulip I love to pay 6% gst according to new guidelines you can still pay 7% thanks.
September 2nd, 2007 at 9:49 am
Tulipmania,
I think you are way off base thinking that the RE industry possilby correcting is going to burden RE agents.
I know many of them that would like a correction. Do you not understand how hard it is or the cost of marketing it involves to find the top brass to afford these properties?
Some RE agents would rather have prices that more people can afford so that they have a broader audience to market to and sell. This would cause more volume which would result in more money for them.
These are commission based people and they would rather have a consistant stream rather then trying to hit the jackpot every few months.
September 2nd, 2007 at 9:13 am
Satv (realtor)
What twisted logic you realtors have. Your industry is on the ropes,so much so,you need government intervention, and yet you see it as good news.
“The 80,000 additional people who would qualify for FHA loan guarantees under the proposed changes Bush announced would still be a tiny portion of an estimated 2 million homeowners whose adjustable rate mortgages are scheduled to reset at higher rates by the end of 2008. Of those 2 million loans that will reset, FHA estimates that 500,000 could go into foreclosure. The new programs plus current FHA programs could help about half of those 500,000 loans be refinanced, officials said”Housing market goes on welfare
September 2nd, 2007 at 8:09 am
FREAKO,
Experts say”higherend properties does not sell at this time of the year”.
so you might going to find facts from wrong trend.
West Van and Van West have lots of higherend properties,East Van and North Van does not.
I guess East and North might going up,but west van will screw up vancouver average,Van West will take a pride over condo sale.that was it from: my clip board.
September 2nd, 2007 at 7:53 am
van-realestate-crash said…
But then again, as you always point out under a different handle, the US doesn’t matter to Vancouver.right?
yes thats right.I have just pulled him over here when bush says
“Global”.
system restore tools are always helpful.
two month ago in response to (had enough poster) I said”nothing to worry our governments can take people out of anything”.
two weeks ago my words turn into “gold”when banks and governments injected trillions of dollars into market.
“when nature play devil,”a peace of grass can save you from drowning”.
Hope in the market is similar to any parental hope when they teach their kids to walk by holding their fingers, that one day their kids will start walking, without any support.
A rookie to profesional buyers are just a small bubble fish droped by FREAKO into global market.
September 2nd, 2007 at 7:35 am
Ok, August numbers out soon. Any guesses. Sales were hot in the beginning of August, but seemed to cool of in the last 10 days or so. Is it a rush of expiring preapprovals? July had very strong sales, yet prices actually reversed by a tiny bit for SFH (but up for condo). Based on that SFH should fall a bit further this month, but who knows in this screwy market.
The daily nmbers at vannumbers and that other place should give us an idea of how the fall is turning out.
September 1st, 2007 at 9:17 pm
“Note that many US states (including California) are “no-recourse”…
But the funny thing is that the owner would wtill face a hefty tax bill for it
According to what I have read on HBB a foreclosure on a no-recourse loan is not legally a debt forgiveness and does not result in a tax liability, because the loan is only a charge on the ownership of the house and not collectible from the borrower.
Don’t know whether that’s right but FWIW.
September 1st, 2007 at 7:14 pm
The politicians will not want to be seen to be the cause of the bubble bursting
This is precisely the reason why no politician, of any party, anywhere, will say that house prices are too high while they are still going up. One prices are seen to be falling, they will come out and admit what has become self-evident.
And that’s not the politicains’ fault. It’s the voters’ fault. People vote for politcians who tell them what they want to hear, not what they need to hear.
The reason, in my view, the homedebtors are in trouble is that they paid 2 to 3 times more than they should have paid for the shacks
In other words, we have a housing bubble. Yes, it’s asset pricing which is the fundamental (ahem) problem. Credit is what enabled the overpricing, but credit is not needed for fair pricing. If houses were fairly valued (yields comfortably above fixed income), you would not need any mortgage lending at all to maintain prices. Somebody, somewhere, would just pay cash. The capital markets would see to that.
September 1st, 2007 at 6:14 pm
good post s77
However, our real estate market will be affected and no part of Canada will come away unscathed.
We have said often that those housing markets that went up the fastest will see the most volatile declines.
!!
September 1st, 2007 at 12:35 pm
I have always claimed this was a combo, RE and Credit, bubble.
What we are seeing is the bursting of the RE bubble, and the credit bubble is yet to pop.
The reason, in my view, the homedebtors are in trouble is that they paid 2 to 3 times more than they should have paid for the shacks, and now prices are headed for the cliff, and there is nobody to take them off their hands.
Is it simply a sub-prime problem?
Why aren’t buyers with good credit lined up overnight to buy up?
Rich Asians, and Edmontonians, hurry hurry, to the US and buy now before they run out of land.
Tick Tock, Tick Tock
September 1st, 2007 at 11:26 am
its coming…tinyurl.com/22ro5z
last 2 parargraphs are important
September 1st, 2007 at 11:11 am
Satv:
Be careful of the naked man that offers you his shirt.
I repeat:
IT IS UNFOLDING JUST AS I THOUGHT!
The politicians will not want to be seen to be the cause of the bubble bursting, and therefore, theY will offer some cosmetic patch, only to delay it, and eventually make it worse.
There is approximately 10, perhaps as much as 13 trillion, US dollars in questionable mortgage loans coming up for renewal.
This political solution is like treating lung cancer with cough candy.
But then again, as you always point out under a different handle, the US doesn’t matter to Vancouver.right?
September 1st, 2007 at 11:09 am
Note that many US states (including California) are “no-recourse”, meaning the mortgage lender can take back the house but cannot go after the borrower for any deficiency.
But the funny thing is that the owner would wtill face a hefty tax bill for it. Part of the Bush proposal was to eliminate this tax, which is a bit ironic since it further encourages people to default.
September 1st, 2007 at 11:05 am
Note that many US states (including California) are “no-recourse”, meaning the mortgage lender can take back the house but cannot go after the borrower for any deficiency.
In other states, many borrowers with no other assets (i.e. pretty well all of them) can file for bankruptcy.
Now how long do you think it will take people to figure out that it doesn’t make much sense to pay off a $500K loan on a house worth $300K, when they can just walk? No refinance offer is going to change that.
September 1st, 2007 at 10:57 am
from MarketWatch:
Bush’s plan would reportedly allow about 80,000 homeowners to refinance their mortgage. Some groups have estimated that as many as 2 million homeowners are at risk of foreclosure.
http://tinyurl.com/ypnkho
September 1st, 2007 at 10:49 am
*****big smile in usa market.
I hope you know that “modest” means small. The Bush announce essentially amounts to nothing. It was just an attempt to preempt Democratic proposals. Calculated Risk disects it nicely under a post titled “Color me underwhelmed.
“.
The Bernanke announcement was more significant, because it guarantees rate cuts rather than Volker style hard medicine. But what is the impact? The market has already priced in a 100% chance of a whole point rate cut by next year.
September 1st, 2007 at 10:12 am
BUSH-invented in tools to fix global-credit-crunch.
van-realestate-crash said…
Freako, thanks for the update on the US.
I follow the US closely, and so far the bubble is unfolding exactly as the bears had anticipated.
*****big smile in usa market.
BUSH-announced a set of modest proposals to deal with an alarming rise in mortgage defaults that have contributed to turbulent financial markets over recent weeks.
Bush’s comments came the same day that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke pledged to do everything necessary to protect the economy from the market turmoil. His comments to a Fed conference in Wyoming were seen as a strong signal that the central bank was moving closer to cutting a key interest rate, possibly as soon as its next meeting Sept. 18
August 31st, 2007 at 10:27 pm
van-re-crash, I remember that quote! LOL. Thanks for re-posting.
Yes, exactly the same stuff said here, with no doubt similar result.
August 31st, 2007 at 7:51 pm
Freako, thanks for the update on the US.
I follow the US closely, and so far the bubble is unfolding exactly as the bears had anticipated.
And the hype from the bulls was identical to Vancouver’s
The following is an excerpt of a response from a bull when another poster pointed out that the bubble would eventually burst in Vegas:
“I doubt it. I’m looking at the fundamentals, and I don’t see a decline. Oh, there might be some zig-zags on the way up, but the chart will continue to go up. The fundamentals are there. I read today that the BLM will only release another 60,000 acres of land around Las Vegas. That’s it. It will take an act of Congress to get more. Since we are using up land at the rate of 8,000 acres per year, we are simply going to run out. Period. Meanwhile, people keep arriving. Exciting new developments keep getting built. This city is beautiful, and desirable, and for now still affordable. It has a lot to offer. I expect this happy situation to go on for another 20 years, and after that who cares? I might be dead by then. But at least I will die rich, and my children will remember me fondly while blowing their inheritance
August 31st, 2007 at 5:32 pm
Actually I feel that the threat of squatters may actually reduce the number of speculator-bought vacant properties. With the potential of squatters that are costly to evict, flippers may actually want to rent the place out, reducing the temporary housing shortage today.
August 31st, 2007 at 3:13 pm
“The trespassing example for instance: My limited legal education tells me you can kick the crap out of somebody on your land if you “feel threatened or you/your family is in imminent danger”.”
Actually, speaking as someone who was trained in the legal exercise of violence the operative phrase to remember is “…the minimum force necessary” to ensure safety.
So, kicking the crap out of someone up to a point where you could still claim to feel threatened is OK, after he’s suffered any breakages or incapacitating blows or he attempts to flee you need to exercise restraint. Judges are not apt to be lenient if they think you were just acting as a vigilante.
August 31st, 2007 at 2:02 pm
Its not nearly as easy as it should be to (legally) remove squatters from your property, assuming it is vacant.
Sure it can be locked up, but then the squatters just say they weren’t the ones that broke the locks, windows, etc.
I’m all in favour of more strict legislation on this. Laws are all about interpretation though.
The trespassing example for instance: My limited legal education tells me you can kick the crap out of somebody on your land if you “feel threatened or you/your family is in imminent danger”. Keep in mind this is all decided by a judge and/or jury many months after the incident. Lawyers come in handy.
August 31st, 2007 at 1:36 pm
Trespassing not a crime? Sorry I don’t buy that. I wake up in the night to find some dude on my back porch drinking or doing drugs and I can’t call the police to have him removed or charged with trespassing? I don’t think so.
I guess all the “Trespassers will Be Prosecuted” signs are full of hot air.
As for the squaters. I would hire a couple of goons to chuck those as&%&^%les out with all their stuff and change the locks. What are they going to do? Call the cops? You’re on title as owner…
August 31st, 2007 at 12:49 pm
Trespassing or squatting is not a crime – it’s an infringement on property rights, and therefore a private matter. It’s not hard to get squatters kicked out but you do have to go to court and get an order
That is f*cked up. How is trespassing not a crime? What about all those “Tresspassers will be prosecuted” signs. Forget going to Alice Lake Provincial Campground. Jim Pattisons lawn, here I come.
August 31st, 2007 at 12:13 pm
“How are the hands of the RCMP tied?”
Breaking and entering is a crime, but these guys probably had a key from the son. Trespassing or squatting is not a crime – it’s an infringement on property rights, and therefore a private matter. It’s not hard to get squatters kicked out but you do have to go to court and get an order.
August 31st, 2007 at 9:41 am
Bubble tracking blog just updated. Record inventory in every area tracked. Never seen that before. Seattle is actually picking up, jumpe 10% to 21,382. Vegas just hit 31,178, which is about 1 listing per 60 residents.
August 31st, 2007 at 9:07 am
drachen
you missed the “curmudgeon” part
August 31st, 2007 at 8:42 am
“OTOH I had no children to add to our current problems.
So my reality doesn’t quite match your hyperbole.”
A little overly defensive there Curmudgeon. When people say “The Boomers” did _____ they mean people of that generation or perhaps most people of that generation. I think anyone with an ounce of sense knows it doesn’t apply to ALL of the group.
If I say “The Americans attacked Iraq.” I obviously don’t mean ALL Americans.
Don’t be so sensitive and quick to jump to the wrong conclusions, you’re still going to be a burden to the system when you retire and I somehow doubt you encouraged politicians to reduce pensions or medical care for your generation so you ARE a part of the problem whether you want to be or not. In fact NOT having kids made you more of a problem rather than less from an economic standpoint.
August 31st, 2007 at 7:45 am
Regarding the squatters, I just don’t get it. I know that the RTO can be a pain to deal with in regards to getting tentants out. But these guys don’t rent, so are uninvited guests at best, and breaking and entering at worst. How are the hands of the RCMP tied?
August 31st, 2007 at 7:25 am
molymolyman…tinyurl.com/27hgnd
August 31st, 2007 at 6:46 am
Americans borrowed $2.87 trillion in mortgage debt from 2004 to 2006, a record for any three-year period.
Holy Crap!
this is from Bloomberg:
http://tinyurl.com/2wyd9l
August 31st, 2007 at 6:06 am
and then two more lenders picked up there ball and went home
tinyurl.com/3x6rph
August 31st, 2007 at 2:26 am
http://www.theprogress.com/
“Squatter nightmare offers cautionary tale” (I can’t link directly to the story).
I notice that there are more empty houses (even foreclosures) on the MLS and I understand a lot of the Downtown Vancouver transients are being forced out to the suburbs. I think we’ll see more cases of unexpected, and difficult to get rid of, house guests.
From the story:
“The rest of her time has been spent driving out to check on her house “several times a dayâ€, visiting city hall, the mayor and the provincial access centre. She’s also been in contact with the RCMP.
“But they have their hands tied,†she says. “There’s nothing they can do unless they actually catch them doing something illegally.â€
What she really wants to do is warn other homeowners to protect their investments.
“These people get in and they’re just like cockroaches,†she says. “It’s so difficult to get them to leave.â€
Somehow, she says, the squatters managed to get BC Hydro to switch service to one of their names.
To make matters worse, the house is up for sale. She has an interested buyer, but cannot ask full price for the house the way it is.”
August 30th, 2007 at 7:39 pm
Patriotz:
On the last thread you made an excellent point, worth mentioning:
“That’s only looking at the demand side. People seem to have forgotten that in a market with unlimited supply, price = marginal cost in the long run. Like in Florida, Arizona, CA Central Valley, etc.”
The RE pushers like to say: ” buy land they don’t make it anymore”
It’s amazing how many people actually buy this sort of nonsense when in fact all you need is a sizeable financial contribution for a couple of politicians, followed by a stroke of a pen, and presto! rezone.
August 30th, 2007 at 7:00 pm
2010 is no more relevant to the current market than 1986 was relevant to the early 80′s market. It’s just hype.
What’s relevant is the Guns of August, heard from bank failures in Germany to hedge fund collapses on Wall Street to nominal price declines in Alberta (!).
This party is over, worldwide. Nominal declines in BC (month over month) by year end.
August 30th, 2007 at 6:52 pm
mk-kids “At any rate if it was only their “stack” that they were spending I wouldn’t be so pissed about it but it’s not… they’re spending their parents & their childrens “stacks” too.”
Perfect! Glad you realize it. The totally selfish generation. By the way I’m a boomer (1951) and am some pissed at the way my generation has put the next three generations in debt for self satisfication. I would actually call us the “shallow” generation!
August 30th, 2007 at 6:32 pm
“They bought a condo, renovated it, sold it, and lost 30 grand” just overheard that from parents at children’s birthparty in my neighbours yard a mere two minutes ago. This was followed what were apparently some sarcastic comments (couldn’t quite hear) and rounds of laughter. I know this is one little suburban snippet, but I found it amusing.
August 30th, 2007 at 4:42 pm
You must read this. They say this could not happen to Vancouver or Victoria????? Maybe not on the same scale. We know people who are pulling out. Read about the 70 year old retiree landloards.
http://www.orlandosentinel.com.....1796.story
August 30th, 2007 at 3:48 pm
That’s right! THE BOOMERS!
I didn’t have much say about being born in 1951 and I did not inherit anything from my parents.
OTOH I had no children to add to our current problems.
So my reality doesn’t quite match your hyperbole.
August 30th, 2007 at 2:55 pm
Some updates from Montreal:
“The resale market enjoyed an exceptional month in July.”
and then
“The average price for condominiums remained stable and settled at $215,000 for July 2007, the same as in 2006. For the same period, single-family homes registered a light growth of 3%, rising to $236,000.”
On par with official inflation, definitely below income growth. And, of course, the obligatory Realtor pitch
“This is a great time to buy or sell”
http://www.cigm.qc.ca/en/nouve.....spx?id=553
August 30th, 2007 at 2:41 pm
Of course we can all be glad that at least we don’t live in the US where catastrophic overspending by this generation could spell
The End of their way of life in the next 30 years.
August 30th, 2007 at 2:34 pm
And guess who did most of the screwing?
That’s right! THE BOOMERS!
August 30th, 2007 at 1:31 pm
Big difference between KNOWING & HYPOTHESIZING.
preponderance of evidence shows that we ARE royally screwed.
Massive overpopulation based on a limited resource base, all bets are off.
August 30th, 2007 at 1:26 pm
Absolutely it’s possible many Boomers are functioning from that sort of mind set but do they KNOW there will be no tomorrow or is it that the rainy day MAY not come? Big difference between KNOWING & HYPOTHESIZING… Plus, who created and contributed most substantially to these problems of climate change and consumerism in the first place?
At any rate if it was only their “stack” that they were spending I wouldn’t be so pissed about it but it’s not… they’re spending their parents & their childrens “stacks” too.
August 30th, 2007 at 1:10 pm
there’s loads of evidence to support that they are spending like there’s no tomorrow and not saving for retirement
from previous thread….
is it possible that the boomers KNOW there will be no tomorrow?
that there is no point in saving for a rainy day which may not come given our problems with climate change and peak energy?
a sort of “screw the system” I got mine Jack keep your hands off my stack……
August 30th, 2007 at 12:49 pm
Carrying on from my post about selfish baby boomers on the last thread, I’ve just come across this article “Older Canadians stay working longer, study shows”
Highlights:
The study suggests the number of older people in the labor force will continue to rise as the baby boom generation ages.
It cited three main factors: “a strong attachment to the labor market among baby boomers; rising levels of education, particularly among women; and an apparent desire among people over 55 to continue working, either from interest, financial concern, or other factors, such as the virtual elimination of mandatory retirement at age 65.”
Meanwhile, another Statscan study released on Friday showed that more Canadians are choosing to start collecting public pension benefits at the age of 60, though many of them are staying on the job.
Statscan said in the study “Public Pensions and Work,” that an aging workforce meant that more people were continuing to work after beginning to collect benefits at 60 from the Canada Pension Plan or Quebec Pension Plan as the pension coverage alone was not enough to retire on.
“Their situation indicated relatively weak retirement resources, so it is not surprising that many continue to work after starting CPP/QPP benefits.”
Normally, people opt to start collecting CPP/QPP benefits at age 65.
link text
August 30th, 2007 at 12:07 pm
I have the day off tomorrow myself.. woohoo 4 day weekend!
The market continues to defy gravity, I think we’ll see it flatten as the stock markets, consumer spending (and perception) drift downwards over the next 6 months. Here’s hoping we’re in nominal decline by mid 2008.
August 30th, 2007 at 11:35 am
haha. Sorry to cause the false hope gianni33, I’m posting early because I’ve got other priorities for tommorow!
August 30th, 2007 at 11:29 am
DRATS… I had to double check it was still Thursday