July 2007 Benchmark prices
WTF? We had great volume in July, lots of sales, but the benchmark house price didn’t go up at all. In fact at a benchmark price of $714,810 detached houses actually lost $905 in the month, hardly enough to get excited about, but shouldn’t prices be going up in a hot hot market?
Those at the lower end are still doing their part: Condos are up a healthy $4k from the previous month, while townhouses are up $5k, so what happened to the houses?
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August 7th, 2007 at 11:49 am
Nobody can afford them…
That’s always one of the first indicators of RE market tops, the higher end is the first to taper off.
Of course sometimes market forces cause high end to taper off for other reasons, but I don’t think so in this case.
August 7th, 2007 at 2:44 pm
August 7th, 2007 at 2:53 pm
August 7th, 2007 at 2:57 pm
I can see that people might be forced into a condo because the detached houses are out of reach but if people are dreaming of moving up to a bigger house someday they better wake up and smell the coffee.
Let me get this straight - the cheap homes,small shoebox condos, are your typical entrance to the market, correct? Are these people someday hoping to move up to a somewhat bigger house -like maybe having a family and some space so they don’t kill each other? Don’t we live in the largest country in the world?? Why are we even considering building such unbelievably small shoe boxes?
Don’t give me this -we are running out of land crap -as if the whole world wants to live in this rain forest? Sure, everything is green, but you better not stand still for too long or you’ll end up growing mold!!
Even if their shoe boxes increase at 10% a year (impossible in my opinion), wouldn’t common sense just say that the nicer (non-shoe boxes) would go up at the same rate (if not even more as they should be more desirable).
So, why are people putting a large portion of their money into one investment (their shoe box)? It seems like a very risky situation that has no benefit - as it probably won’t help you move up in the market later.
Also, don’t tell me that people are stupid enough to borrow to invest in a home but aren’t willing to borrow to invest in the markets (which have historically always been a safer investment with better returns)?
I do have to admit that I would love to own a home and call it mine (home sweet home) but every ounce of my non-emotional side says that all the fundamentals of this market are beyond insane. Why won’t this market just crash??
Are we completely blind to the clearly flashing warning signs in the US and other markets? Are these people just going to ignore the fact that some serious stuff is going down very soon and cash will once again be king (as they used to say).
August 7th, 2007 at 3:19 pm
August 7th, 2007 at 3:40 pm
Last year yes, but what about 2001 to 2005. And July is hardly fall.
It is only one data point, but perhaps price compression.
August 7th, 2007 at 6:40 pm
I expect prices to decline every month through January. I expect a couple more springs to be sellers markets but really weak compared to the last few years. WRT falling prices and high sell list ratios- that would appear to be price elasticity of demand at work.
The price of Harleys came down several grand this year, thanks to waning(you guessed it) boomer demand, and for us Canadians, a stronger loonie. I had planned to wait until a quantum correction to buy a house, but as some long time posters know ,I “chickened out” and bought a fixer in PG.I predict a 20% correction in prices in less than 2 years. So I bought a house a 20% below fmv by avoiding curb appeal.
August 7th, 2007 at 7:50 pm
Not necessarily jasper my wife and I are in our 50’s. We have had five SFH in our life and we absolutely love the high rise condo lifestyle. Did I think I would? No I was suprised actually as I remember a time where I thought those people were nuts. (about 5 years ago). Now as far as city life I would consider nothing else, a lot of our friends who are still SFH owners are somewhat green with envy, we walk a block to a dozen top notch restaurants, walk to the hockey game, or walk to the many other cultural events. My kids all adults who own homes more than a few times look askance at us as we dissappear for a few weeks with not a care in the world. There is a lot like us wouldn’t even think of an SFH, also many younger ones who’s life style does not entertain mowing the lawn, asking the neighbours to watch the place, or having dooor to door canvasers. So I would say your pretty well wrong in that statement. Few in our hi-rise have any interest in suburbia!
August 7th, 2007 at 8:18 pm
well housing price declines were expected.as condo market was expected to be hot,but for the reason you guys have mention,and their are some more reason to attach with are,its depend on what is avialable in market. I think loco properties has been sold already .I think buyers with pre approval jumped into grab any piece,those off location properties might disappear from inventory.if there is more junk yard left, price decline in just housing will countinue till december and for hotest location lava will blast off in feb,2008.I think boc played big part to control rapid price up,but second largest recorded sale will help hot properties to grow higher because of inventory disappearance.
Detached:
Richmond up 80.4% (175 units sold, up from 97)
West Vancouver/Howe Sound up 88.6% (83 units sold, up from 44)
Vancouver East up 72.0% (227 units sold, up from 132)
Sunshine Coast up 70.2% (80 units sold, up from 47)
Port Coquitlam up 55.0% (62 units sold, up from 40)
Burnaby up 47.2% (131 units sold, up from 89)
Attached:
Port Moody/Belcarra up 158.8% (44 units sold, up from 17)
Port Coquitlam up 125.0% (45 units sold, up from 20)
Burnaby up 68.2% (106 units sold, up from 63)
North Vancouver up 39.4% (46 units sold, up from 33)
Whistler/Pemberton up 340.0% (22 units sold, up from 5)
Apartments:
Port Moody/Belcarra up 152.9% (43 units sold, up from 17)
New Wesminster up 69.0% (98 units sold, up from 58)
Port Coquitlam up 60.6% (53 units sold, up from 33)
Burnaby up 43.6% (237 units sold, up from 165)
Richmond up 52.6% (203 units sold, up from 133)
Vancouver West up 27.9% (578 units sold, up from 452)
August 7th, 2007 at 9:38 pm
I think some people like the idea of living in downtown condos more than houses, as people retire (eg my parents) they want the freedom to travel more, downsize so boomerang kids (or their stuff) can’t return home and be able to walk everywhere, a convenience they couldn’t afford when they were raising their kids in a house. Single women may feel more safe living in a condo than a single house, so the question is; what are Vancouver’s demographics? If there are more retirees (or almost retirees), single women and people who enjoy condos than houses, then it could be a justified increase over houses.
If I was single I would choose a condo in a “hotter” area than a house in a suburb, so I can understand the condo craze. I also spend a chunk of my weekends weeding, trimming, edging and sweeping up around the house - it is still fun for the kids, but just more chores for us. A condo with no yard work can seem very appealing at times.
August 7th, 2007 at 9:42 pm
“my wife and I are in our 50’s. We have had five SFH in our life and we absolutely love the high rise condo lifestyle”
I am quite confident if you and your wife have owned 5 homes before that you are not ‘entering’ the market. Regardless, if you did choose to live in a shoe-box (something that someone entering the market might buy) I am glad you are enjoying it.
I have nothing against a city lifestyle or not mowing a lawn - heck I am not even paranoid about leaving for a few days without checking with my neighbors
(I live in an apartment).
I was trying to make a point that some people are buying these small 500-700 square foot apartments -and in my experience this just isn’t healthy for a family to live in. Please don’t get me wrong -condos are awesome, so are homes.
I am just against the housing market which is Vancouver. Why, the heck is this city so out of touch with reality when it comes to owning a home (or condo!)
August 7th, 2007 at 9:44 pm
August 7th, 2007 at 11:30 pm
August 8th, 2007 at 11:28 am
http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/stor … 62&k=18098
Cracks forming
August 8th, 2007 at 11:41 am
http://tinyurl.com/2j3k4m
August 8th, 2007 at 11:49 am
Elasticity? I know all about elasticity, but I still can’t follow what you mean. Elastic demand means that it is sensitive to price changes. Since have remained high while prices rose dramatically, demand has seemed inelastic if anything. Are you suggesting that this reversed itself very suddenly? That would suggest large price declines to come.
August 8th, 2007 at 1:16 pm
Apparantly not. But your arrogance knows no bounds.
The market remains hot because sales prices are off.
August 8th, 2007 at 1:41 pm
What was that about? Seriously, you don’t agree with my explanation of price elasticity?
The market remains hot because sales prices are off.
So sales remain high because prices dropped 0.3%? Again if you think that demand went from inelastic to elastic overnight, the market has turned and this little drop is just the beginning. Typically, RE falls slowly because supply is overpriced due to seller irrationality.
August 8th, 2007 at 1:53 pm
buyers who can’t touch detached are going for attached to stay in . west vancouver detached got hard hit ,and boom turn towards attached so middle class is in affordable situation when it comes to attached and bottom liners are falling for condo to stay in.over all market is up,but mom says”no” to west.but too early to make any story on west vancouver.
***detached attached appartments
ev +1,158 +12,996 +4,736
v w-8201 ———– +9,900
w v-39816 +17,776 -6,073
I think darachan and freako are also not in so hurry because signs are not that clean and clear.even attached are filling the gap in west detached so the “puck got frozen over spanish bank”.sattelite signal faded to hear the final whistle.satv is still alive my units are out of trouble prone area making strong gain.
August 8th, 2007 at 2:29 pm
For some of your fellow “investors” who might have overlooked some details, there may be hope. with the little tax issue.