July 2007 Benchmark prices

WTF? We had great volume in July, lots of sales, but the benchmark house price didn’t go up at all. In fact at a benchmark price of $714,810 detached houses actually lost $905 in the month, hardly enough to get excited about, but shouldn’t prices be going up in a hot hot market?

Those at the lower end are still doing their part: Condos are up a healthy $4k from the previous month, while townhouses are up $5k, so what happened to the houses?

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kenjii

Good news for Satv's friendsFor some of your fellow "investors" who might have overlooked some details, there may be hope. with the little tax issue.

satv

buyers compromise is currently underwaybuyers who can't touch detached are going for attached to stay in . west vancouver detached got hard hit ,and boom turn towards attached so middle class is in affordable situation when it comes to attached and bottom liners are falling for condo to stay in.over all market is up,but mom says"no" to west.but too early to make any story on west vancouver.***detached attached appartmentsev +1,158 +12,996 +4,736v w-8201 ———– +9,900w v-39816 +17,776 -6,073I think darachan and freako are also not in so hurry because signs are not that clean and clear.even attached are filling the gap in west detached so the "puck got frozen over spanish bank".sattelite signal faded to hear the final whistle.satv is still alive my units are out of trouble prone area making strong gain.

freako

Apparantly not. But your arrogance knows no bounds.What was that about? Seriously, you don't agree with my explanation of price elasticity?The market remains hot because sales prices are off.So sales remain high because prices dropped 0.3%? Again if you think that demand went from inelastic to elastic overnight, the market has turned and this little drop is just the beginning. Typically, RE falls slowly because supply is overpriced due to seller irrationality.

Jim

"I know all about elasticity".Apparantly not. But your arrogance knows no bounds.The market remains hot because sales prices are off.

freako

WRT falling prices and high sell list ratios- that would appear to be price elasticity of demand at work. Elasticity? I know all about elasticity, but I still can't follow what you mean. Elastic demand means that it is sensitive to price changes. Since have remained high while prices rose dramatically, demand has seemed inelastic if anything. Are you suggesting that this reversed itself very suddenly? That would suggest large price declines to come.

beta

rr — good article but your link was cut off. Here it is using tinyurl:http://tinyurl.com/2j3k4m

RR

OThttp://www.canada.com/vancouversun/story.html?id=fe05d1d8-d4d6-4b04-99dc-1922deee0e62&k=18098Cracks forming

solipsist

I had to laugh when I read the header on the first picture – REBGV Benchmark Detached – as I continued in my head – from reason. I laughed so hard, I think I detached a retina.

vineland

Just for the record, I would NOT buy anything at these prices. I am just saying I can understand why there is still more interest in condos than houses. But then, I am just sick of yard work this week. Next week I may be happy I don't have to put up with co-owners smoking in the foyer and their noisy visitors.

Jasper

ken; I think you are misinterpreting my shoe-box comment. "my wife and I are in our 50's. We have had five SFH in our life and we absolutely love the high rise condo lifestyle" I am quite confident if you and your wife have owned 5 homes before that you are not 'entering' the market. Regardless, if you did choose to live in a shoe-box (something that someone entering the market might buy) I am glad you are enjoying it.I have nothing against a city lifestyle or not mowing a lawn – heck I am not even paranoid about leaving for a few days without checking with my neighbors 🙂 (I live in an apartment).I was trying to make a point that some people are buying these small 500-700 square foot apartments -and in my experience this just isn't healthy… Read more »

vineland

If this trend keeps up all the condo owners could be home owners in due course. I think some people like the idea of living in downtown condos more than houses, as people retire (eg my parents) they want the freedom to travel more, downsize so boomerang kids (or their stuff) can't return home and be able to walk everywhere, a convenience they couldn't afford when they were raising their kids in a house. Single women may feel more safe living in a condo than a single house, so the question is; what are Vancouver's demographics? If there are more retirees (or almost retirees), single women and people who enjoy condos than houses, then it could be a justified increase over houses.If I was single I would choose a condo in a "hotter" area than a house in a suburb,… Read more »

satv

Vancouver is beautiful not all of bc.olympics are in vancouver and whistler not all over bc.bench marks are for greater vancouver not for just vancouver,vancouver is mostly out of land not all of bc this is vancouvercondo.info not greater vancouver.well housing price declines were expected.as condo market was expected to be hot,but for the reason you guys have mention,and their are some more reason to attach with are,its depend on what is avialable in market. I think loco properties has been sold already .I think buyers with pre approval jumped into grab any piece,those off location properties might disappear from inventory.if there is more junk yard left, price decline in just housing will countinue till december and for hotest location lava will blast off in feb,2008.I think boc played big part to control rapid price up,but second largest recorded sale… Read more »

Ken

jasper; "Let me get this straight – the cheap homes,small shoebox condos, are your typical entrance to the market, correct?"Not necessarily jasper my wife and I are in our 50's. We have had five SFH in our life and we absolutely love the high rise condo lifestyle. Did I think I would? No I was suprised actually as I remember a time where I thought those people were nuts. (about 5 years ago). Now as far as city life I would consider nothing else, a lot of our friends who are still SFH owners are somewhat green with envy, we walk a block to a dozen top notch restaurants, walk to the hockey game, or walk to the many other cultural events. My kids all adults who own homes more than a few times look askance at us as we… Read more »

Jim

It feels like fall. I expect prices to decline every month through January. I expect a couple more springs to be sellers markets but really weak compared to the last few years. WRT falling prices and high sell list ratios- that would appear to be price elasticity of demand at work. The price of Harleys came down several grand this year, thanks to waning(you guessed it) boomer demand, and for us Canadians, a stronger loonie. I had planned to wait until a quantum correction to buy a house, but as some long time posters know ,I "chickened out" and bought a fixer in PG.I predict a 20% correction in prices in less than 2 years. So I bought a house a 20% below fmv by avoiding curb appeal.

freako

Prices typically decline MOM in the fall.Last year yes, but what about 2001 to 2005. And July is hardly fall.It is only one data point, but perhaps price compression.

digi

Are we counting July as part of the fall season now Jim, or are you saying you expect further softening in prices going into the fall?

Jasper

Why would anyone want to pay this kind of money for either an attached house or a detached house baffles my mind? I can see that people might be forced into a condo because the detached houses are out of reach but if people are dreaming of moving up to a bigger house someday they better wake up and smell the coffee.Let me get this straight – the cheap homes,small shoebox condos, are your typical entrance to the market, correct? Are these people someday hoping to move up to a somewhat bigger house -like maybe having a family and some space so they don't kill each other? Don't we live in the largest country in the world?? Why are we even considering building such unbelievably small shoe boxes? Don't give me this -we are running out of land crap -as… Read more »

/dev/null

Doesn't that usually coincide with a decline in sales volume?

Jim

Prices typically decline MOM in the fall.

Drachen

"What happened to the houses?"Nobody can afford them…That's always one of the first indicators of RE market tops, the higher end is the first to taper off.Of course sometimes market forces cause high end to taper off for other reasons, but I don't think so in this case.