Lets break the rules – its not Friday, but lets do an open topic post anyways..
-US house price decline accelerates
-Canadian ownership increasing despite high cost
-I believe there will be an article in the National Post this week about the high cost of housing in Vancouver and how professionals in this city are able to afford it with relatively low local incomes.
What are you seeing out there? Post your news, links and ideas here..
Is the renewal gap that big an issue?I do not see how interest rates will increase dramatically in the near future. The macro conditions do not seem to be present. A one to two percent interest hike will hurt people with big mortgages, but not nearly as much as the fact that many people will be stuck with property worth less than their mortgages.
"95832" — this will be the new answer to those who don't think 50% reductions are possible. Hear that East Van?
"Sure it's the burbs, but it's Steveston so there is some demand to live there. They have already lowered their price by $25k."I live in Steveston and can verify this. The MOST desireable part of Richmond has a huge amount of listings that aren't selling. People are tryinng to get out now and still asking big money but the bloom is definitely off the salmon.
"A friend of mine is trying to buy a house on the North Shore right now, and still lots of places are getting multiple offers above list price which is already inflated."Michael, I can GUARANTEE that these fools are 95% young yuppies who aren't seasoned investors nor have they ever seen a typical Vancouver style housing decline. They WILL have their heads handed to them and you will get a chance to sit back and laugh at them as they grow up and start experiencing the REAL world. it has to happen, it's universal law.
The fire is spreading quickly. I hope nobody is hurt.
It looks like the nearly complete Copperstone in New West is on fire. There are worries it will spread to the Royal Columbian Hospital.
"And Richard beat me to the punch!"You snooze, you lose…There is a condo development on fire in new west. a creative way to get out of develoment headaches, maybe?
And Richard beat me to the punch!
David Dodge thinks the growth in vancouver housing prices are to be expected because of our economy and population growth…linkthe article mentions how he met with cmhc last year to "complain" about 35 year amortizations. at the end it notes we now have 40 year amortizations. way to go cmhc!
"Not this generation. They are taking out mortgages and upgrading. Upgrading cars, harleys etc'. It was cheap money. Many have not saved enough for retirement but they keep on spending." Oh the weeping and wailing we will hear. That is not a generation accustomed to self-restraint. They're so far into their sense of entitlement that they may get the bends when they have to come back to reality.
This $89K figure got me thinking about all the things we who frequent the housing blogs know, the data, the graphs and how someone should put a one-pager fact sheet together that brings all the info re: immigration stats, average income, housing booms & bust cycles, etc, etc… something that takes on & dispels so many of the msm & realtor myths… has anyone thought of doing something like this?
/dev/null – funny you should mention the renewal gap graphic – I updated it on the weekend and I plan to post it tomorrow. Stay tuned!
Good point, beta. I wonder if someone (mohican?) could update VHB's old "renewal gap" graph.
Then I guess we have to ask:then who are the dolts that bought their old places?In any event, a 20% drop in values would be really painful for a lot of these moving uppers. A drop of 40-50% or more, which seems increasingly likely, would be crushing.LOL. Good question. Still a lot of FTB's out there, but also many long term owners are 'liberating their equity' to buy 'investment condos' and the like…a realtor I know sees it a lot. And yes, due to over-extending leverage, even a 20% drop will be extremely painful. While Canada may not have the resetting 2-yr 'teaser rates' of the US, most will re-mortgage within 5 yrs. I wonder what degree of pain will be felt then, when many owe more than the place is worth and have no cash to bring to the… Read more »
Purely anecdotal but a place up the road from me just dropped nearly 10%. This is the first time I've seen this kind of move in Kits and there's a lot of properties stagnating on the market right now. Given the "market price" in the area the original price on this 1500Sq ft detached house was a pretty reasonable 939 (I haven't seen detached in my neighbourhood for under a million in over a year). No bites after 2 months and they dropped to 858 (V660574 if anyone is interested).2 years ago my wife and I were in a place just up the road which was a smaller lot and a 1,000 sq ft house that sold in no time with an asking price of 750k.footnote; In the area I commonly walk there's approximately a dozen places for sale that… Read more »
misanthropic curmudgeon said… http://tinyurl.com/2247zwwho you callin' poor?thanks for the link!you are better than last month.keep it up.
<a href="http://tinyurl.com/2247zwhttp://tinyurl.com/2247zw<br /> who you callin' poor?
Solopist,Or laster tatto removal businesses. That will be big business when everything starts to go south or becomes very un-trendy.Anyway, stats Can said that only 5% of Canadians earn 89K or more. That is not much. My husband was speaking with our banker in Toronto and she said in 25 years she has never seen mortgages this high. Young people, Rich Bay Street types buying huge homes and taking our mortgages.One of the things she was amazed was that the baby boomers just can't stop spending. Usually when people are close to retirement you downsize and put your ducks in a row. Not this generation. They are taking out mortgages and upgrading. Upgrading cars, harleys etc'. It was cheap money. Many have not saved enough for retirement but they keep on spending. One of the economists at one of the… Read more »
"Double-digit home price drops coming"Correction: double-digit price drops have already arrived."Three quarters of housing markets – many in crashing Sun Belt areas – face price declines over next few years"Correction: All US markets face price declines over the next few years, with the worst hit declining up to 50%.This article is laughable. It "predicts" declines in the CA central valley, Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Florida among others that have already happened.Yawn.
I was wondering tonight about something… a lot of the new condos going up have strata laws that are supposed to not allow rentals to a certain percentage of units. So, is this taken into account for the number of units that are out there… if so many people are buying to rent out… how can they? or this is rule just bs and no one actually enforces it?
"Seems like a lot of move-up buyers, eager to trade their newly won equity for a bigger place and a lot more debt." Then I guess we have to ask:then who are the dolts that bought their old places?In any event, a 20% drop in values would be really painful for a lot of these moving uppers. A drop of 40-50% or more, which seems increasingly likely, would be crushing.
Fewer buyers in the future. Will extrapolating "researchers" see it this way? I doubt it.I posted a link (somewhere) which illustrated the population of N.A. declining significantly (by some 100 million souls) over the next 40 years. As the boomers begin to die off, there will be less and less demand for housing – especially huge, rambling SFH.Anyone buying over-priced RE today, with a look to future value that will give them a comfortable retirement, better think twice. Buy nursing home stock.But that's just what I think.