Friday free-for-all
It’s Friday and that means its open-topic time here at VancouverCondo.info – here’s a few stories I’ve noticed this week:
- Maybe don’t invest in “construction loans“
- Canadian economy losing steam?
- Bank of Canada: Credit crunch taking its toll.
- Mish Shedlock picks on Vancouver property values
- Housing market “the most significant risk” to US economy
- Could the crash of ‘87 happen again?
What are you seeing out there? Post your news, links and anecdotes here!
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October 26th, 2007 at 7:57 am
Michael
Yep that’s the definition. Really not subject to subjective analysis.
October 25th, 2007 at 6:04 pm
I define it as two consecutive negative growth quarters, which the US has not had yet.
October 25th, 2007 at 6:03 pm
Darachan,
I am not in recession that was TRUMP,but tony put me in defence,so I had to explain that some time we can trust on each other.
I am in Vancouver for sure where something happening like this……
A representative for the company selling the units said they asked the people in line to go home. They even offered to make a list so no one would lose their place in line. But that wasn’t good enough. People started to argue about how many condos they would be allowed to buy.
So, in the end dozens stayed and camped out, although they established some rules.
Olympics every day
They allow each other lunch and bathroom breaks. But there’s a warning — stay away too long, and you could lose your spot for Olympic glory.
October 25th, 2007 at 5:31 pm
Well if an “Expert investor” says so it MUST be true…
Would you stop changing handles SATV and just pick one.
Do you even know what a recession is? It’s not a subjective term where someone can have an opinion on whether you’re in a recession or not.
October 25th, 2007 at 4:09 pm
Tony Danza,
seems like some one move forward in support for Donald Trump and Satv.
“Expert investor says U.S. now in recession”
“All other things being equal during the next six months, that’s the way I will go,” he said. “But if the Swiss franc goes through the roof, I probably won’t put money into the ###########.
I do not want to sell Chinese stocks. I want to own them forever.” –
October 25th, 2007 at 2:31 pm
The CMHC insuring 0 down investments to those who qualify is one little push what other factors could keep this thing going?
I’m wondering what the bulls would say are factors that will sustain increases into the future.
October 25th, 2007 at 2:01 pm
http://tinyurl.com/37euh2
Will that force Alberta oil companies to start laying off employees? I think they might in the short term as a knee jerk reaction but they still need all the people they have to get oil out of the ground, and they’re still going to be making huge profits. If they do start laying people off, will that help sink the Alberta housing market? It was down last month, and that trend will continue and now this might help push prices down faster and further.
October 25th, 2007 at 9:30 am
The uber condo:
http://thetyee.ca/Views/2007/10/25/UberCondo/
October 25th, 2007 at 6:51 am
cmhc must be nuts
October 24th, 2007 at 7:07 pm
oopsie
October 24th, 2007 at 6:50 pm
Strataman,
yeah you can’t have satv……..and best whishes.
only god knows what’s happening there in California,what did he say about valcano erruption,evacuation procedure,etc.
Can’t get that info from resteven’s site.
October 24th, 2007 at 5:58 pm
michael “we just havn’t found a trigger for it yet.” For cryin out loud with people like SATV do you think this herd of bison would actually turn before they ran off a cliff? Vancouver is differant..stupider than most of the world!
October 24th, 2007 at 3:04 pm
Everyone always wonders where the money comes from. Here’s at least a big part of the answer. My math is not 100% accurate but I think you can get the idea.
If 5% of houses sell in a given year and the price increase is 20% over the previous year ALL houses are given a 20% mark-up by appraisers. Suddenly EVERYONE who owns property has more equity. The equity in this example city has gone up four times the actual amount spent on real estate! Banks loan people money based on their equity so they can buy more property at the new inflated prices and the cycle goes on and on.
Until it doesn’t.
October 24th, 2007 at 2:26 pm
“Do you think that this will happen pre or post Olympics? Is there anough dellusion in the market to keep it buoyent till 2010 dispite a worldwide slowdown?”
I say no chance. I don’t believe there’s enough available money to keep floating things for that long, keeping the surge going requires tens or hundreds of billions of dollars each year (beyond what’s already invested). The money supply HAS to run out.
October 24th, 2007 at 2:14 pm
“Is there enough delusion in the market to keep it buoyant till 2010 despite a worldwide slowdown? “
Since the current conditions aren’t based in reason they’re not amenable to arguments from reason. Eventually something will shift and the unwinding will begin, but if I could time things that neatly I’d be a lot wealthier than I am.
October 24th, 2007 at 1:58 pm
HSBC Closing 30 Branches in Canada
10.23.07, 12:36 PM ET
TORONTO -
HSBC Financial Corp. Ltd. is closing 30 of its 140 small branches in Canada, affecting 300 employees, as it tightens up its lending practices in the continuing credit crunch.
Operating separately from HSBC Bank Canada, the loan company is a subsidiary of a similar U.S. operation that has suffered in the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, spokesman Michael Edmonds said Tuesday.
He said the firm is discontinuing its non-prime, broker-based mortgage services in Canada and is also tightening its credit policies as part of a “repositioning.”
Some of the employees affected by the closing, effective Oct. 31, will get other jobs in the company.
October 24th, 2007 at 12:29 pm
“The pop will come soon enough”
Do you think that this will happen pre or post Olympics? Is there anough dellusion in the market to keep it buoyent till 2010 dispite a worldwide slowdown?
What’s the general consensus here?
October 24th, 2007 at 11:29 am
we just havn’t found a trigger for it yet.
our ongoing credit problems will probably be the trigger…
ya can’t buy a house if ya can’t borrow the money…..
October 24th, 2007 at 10:58 am
Well you might refer to Vancouver as being “Hot”, I think its bubbly. The pop will come soon enough, we just havn’t found a trigger for it yet.
October 24th, 2007 at 9:50 am
Ha Ha (Nelson laugh).
Well at least people like him will soften the blow somewhat to the local economy when things collapse.
Too bad he’ll probably lose his business.
October 24th, 2007 at 8:48 am
VANCOUVER IS HOT: and story is different here.
A downtown Vancouver condo has sold for a record $18 million and it won’t be ready for another four years. The buyer of the 48th floor penthouse is said to be a businessman from Oregon.
misanthropic curmudgeon(.)getting stronger
October 24th, 2007 at 8:26 am
CEO (Countrywide) Was ‘Shocked’
Mr. Mozilo told investors in September 2006 that he was “shocked” so many people were making the minimum payment. He called a sampling of borrowers to find out why. The “general answer…was that the value of my home is going up at a faster rate than the negative amortization,” he said. “I realized I was talking to a group…that had never seen in their adult life real-estate values go down.”
Well its good to see the problems are now spreading to prime mortgages, and people can stop staying its a subprime problem.
October 23rd, 2007 at 9:13 pm
UH OH
October 23rd, 2007 at 8:12 pm
CFC is holding almost 200K foreclosures……
nothing good can come of this
October 23rd, 2007 at 6:26 pm
I can’t wait for Countrywide to come out with their earnings for the quarter on Friday. For those that don’t know Countrywide is the largest mortgage company in the US, and they have been taking a beating lately. I expect those earnings to be really bad and their forecast to be gloomy as well. I’m expecting there to be shock waves spread out from this report and expect a very down day on the markets on Friday.
October 23rd, 2007 at 1:16 pm
A tax on real estate agents? What an awesome idea.
A pox on real estate agents?
What an awesomer idea.
October 23rd, 2007 at 12:20 pm
A tax on real estate agents? What an awesome idea.
October 23rd, 2007 at 11:58 am
Thanks for the link to the Globe Article, affordability and the bubble certainly will leave a social mark on the city.
Looking back at history it should be no surprise that vancouver is still priced high it’s always been about real estate. The 1889 the News-Advertiser stated that
“the imposition of any tax on real estate agents is injudicious, as this class of business men has done more than any other for the advertising and development of the City.”
We’ve been a hot bed of speculation and development for a long time.
CBC will be airing a documentary on the Mortgage melt down on Monday at 10pm.
October 23rd, 2007 at 11:55 am
This was so good I am surprised Rob, aka Satv has not yet deleted it.
“Hello Rob, Long time reader, first time posting. Usually I read your posts with some agreement, some disagreement, and often some understanding that you are couching your terms/comments in a manner that minimizes your exposure to making “difinitive†statements. This post however is so laced with hypocrisy that I had to reply. I find it very disingenuous of you to state that it is “unethical†to take advantage of someone who is trying to sell a house, yet at the same time a Realtor will list the price high to see if there is market acceptance of the higher price. This in effect is a “highball†on the price… which may accepted from the market due to “ignorance†on the part of the buyer. Does that make it unethical for the seller to jack their price up because they believe that they can get it? The answer to that is “noâ€. This is a free economy where there is forever going to be losers and winners. And most of the time that difference between winning and losing is based upon a persons expertise/knowledge/skill (and admittedly sometimes a little luck). Any offer lower than the price that is asked is reasonable… any offer at the price asked is reasonable… and any offer over the asking price is reasonable. By that same token… the seller can ask less than the place is worth, ask what it is worth… or ask more than it is worth. The interplay between all of the different factors is what will eventually determine the price that the commodity exchanges hands at… ethics has nothing to do with it. What you are talking about here is not ethics… I do not see you lowering the asking price on any of these houses so that widows and orphans can afford to purchase them… what you are talking about here is the value of your time in placing offers that have a lower chance of success. And that Rob, is simply greed on your part. And there is nothing wrong with that… as long as you don’t stand on a soapbox and label someone else as unethical for doing exactly what you are doing.”
October 23rd, 2007 at 5:57 am
David Beers, the editor of the Tyee has an article in the Globe called “Why is Vancouver Eating it’s Young”. Worth a read, touches on real estate and a few other subjects. Sums up the current situation fairly well.
http://tinyurl.com/23vs2f
October 22nd, 2007 at 8:06 pm
safe place that’s called natural selection…
or as i call it… culling the herd!
October 22nd, 2007 at 8:06 pm
I passed a real estate agent talking with a prospective buyer out front of a listed home this afternoon. I was surprised at how strong my urge to shout out “BUBBLE!” was…
October 22nd, 2007 at 7:52 pm
tulip mania…
“The usual suspects are at it again.
Forecasting prices will keep rising forever.”
so what? notice that NO ONE reads that site? There are no comments and no discussion there. … lost in cyberspace
October 22nd, 2007 at 7:30 pm
Umm, your political wingnut blog lies elsewhere Randall.
I don’t think the bill in question has anything to do with real estate.
Aside from which if parents are too stupid to train their kids to avoid nasty chemicals AND too lazy to put it away in a safe place that’s called natural selection…
October 22nd, 2007 at 7:01 pm
BC Liberals are SCUM…..
—————-
October 22, 2007
B.C. LIBERALS SHUT DOWN DEBATE ON ANTIFREEZE BILL
TO PROTECT PETS AND CHILDREN
VICTORIA – The B.C. Liberals’ decision to shut down debate on the proposed legislation for safe antifreeze puts pets and children at risk, New Democrat MLA Scott Fraser said today.
“When the legislation was brought forward today in the legislature, the Campbell Government struck it down on a technicality in 20 minutes,†said Fraser, NDP MLA for Alberni- Qualicum.
The Promotion of Safe Antifreeze Act was presented by Fraser this morning in the legislature. The Private Member’s Bill would bring in an incremental ban on the sale of antifreeze containing ethylene glycol.
“Two ounces of ethylene glycol antifreeze can kill a dog, one teaspoon can kill a cat and two tablespoons can be hazardous to children,†continued Fraser. “The bill would have legislated B.C. to use an existing safer ingredient. When it was shut down, B.C. families lost.â€
Fraser’s bill was endorsed by a wide variety of groups, including B.C. Society for the Protection of Animals (B.C. SPCA), the David Suzuki Foundation, the Western Canada Wilderness Committee, the B.C. Chapter of the Sierra Club of Canada, and the Pacific Assistance Dogs Society.
A transcript of this morning’s debate can be accessed at http://www.leg.bc.ca/hansard/8-8.htm
–30-
October 22nd, 2007 at 5:37 pm
For those who are interested in an in depth read on what’s going on internationally.
3rd Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey: 2007
As I have stated before, Demographia has problems. They list the median Vancouver house as $448. That is way way too low. Off by 70% plus. I checked some U.S. cities, and they were right on the money, so it grossly understates Vancouver in particular.
October 22nd, 2007 at 2:36 pm
“Bad news from: Resteven’s area”
That’s certainly one way of reducing inventory. Hope they can get that fire under control and nobody else dies.
October 22nd, 2007 at 1:22 pm
Bad news from:
Resteven’s area
October 22nd, 2007 at 12:43 pm
Yes, listen to Donald Trump, he’s only lost everything (of his investors money anyway) once in the real estate game and is in the process of losing everything in the casino game. I am sure he knows the score on the economic front every bit as well as SATV does.
October 22nd, 2007 at 11:47 am
I am inclined to think that when we look back at 2007 it will be explained as the “dead cat bounceâ€.
The pattern so far, looks much like the last Hong Kong bubble and pop
October 22nd, 2007 at 11:44 am
I think PURCHASE POWER have nothing to do with housing sector for Canadian’s and asian’s as well,Only some lower end buyer’s from USA can have difficulties crossing border to this side.
Finance minister is going to address the bussiness to cap the prices of goods and services for consumers,accordingly to cap the parity.He has already convinced Hudson Bay Company.
RECESSION :BY DONALD TRUMP
I think he is a reliable source, this is what he said to Americans
1.Recession in USA will be bottom out with in six month.
2.He urges Americans to go into the market and hunt for bargain that can match the prices at six month later.
3.He also urges victim of subprime to talk to bank instead of waiting for notice, and let the bank know how much they can pay monthly to keep the homes.
from that I can beleive recession will be eleminate before the start.So does subprime cases at the rate of six month later.
October 22nd, 2007 at 11:03 am
Oh and one more thing – if the BoC is dumb enough to try to race the USD to the bottom, Canadian interest rates will go up substantially.
October 22nd, 2007 at 11:01 am
When the US officially goes into recession (and I don’t see how this can be avoided), the local market will start falling, if it hasn’t started already.
Also another rate cut by the Fed will sink the USD (and the HKD which is fixed to the USD, and yuan which is still closely tied to the USD) even further, which will both hurt both BC’s economy and Asian purchasers.
I think one or both events are inevitable in the next 3 months or so.
October 22nd, 2007 at 10:53 am
don’t want to buy a condo and have it drop in value
you can almost count on it depreciating. the market is overbought and can only go in one direction, down.
credit availability will continue to suffer knocking increasing numbers of buyers from the market, prices will follow a drop in sales volume, again down.
step away from the market….
October 22nd, 2007 at 10:14 am
I don’t want to buy a condo and have it drop in value
Not to worry – RE only goes up in value. It’s different here, this time.
October 22nd, 2007 at 9:46 am
Anybody have any good educated guesses of when things will finally turn here? Seattle and Calgary seem to be turning, but what about us in Vancouver. I really want my own condo, but this blog always scares me and I don’t want to buy a condo and have it drop in value.