friday free for all!
Friday free for all time:
-Why is Vancouver eating its young?
-A good time to lock in a mortgage.
-US home sales fall by largest amount on record.
-Bank of America dropping wholesale mortgages.
-Countrywide posts 1.2b$ loss.
-US home sales worse than they seem.
What are you seeing out there? post your news, links and theories here!
RSS 2.0 comments feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
October 30th, 2007 at 12:19 pm
hey thumby – were you referring to the link i posted to that piece of garbage posted on msn.ca yesterday? the one written by the self-serving duo of CREA & Remax? Yeah, we should all listen to those pumpers.
for the real story check out jesse’s link to “mortgage meltdown” – imagine a journalist actually getting off his butt & talking to real live people about predatory lending & the state of the US economy. Who’s running that chicken coop to our south really?
October 30th, 2007 at 8:18 am
Jesse (from the link)
Professor Robert Shiller says”first time USA saw this debacle in 1942″ when USA Entered in world war-2.
Now they are in war with terrorism,how ever they did not show the begining of video as seen on CBC that map structure to point out Natural Disaster and documentary of terrorism threat.
October 30th, 2007 at 7:42 am
Here’s the ABC page with links to the “Mortgage Meltdown” video. Not anything we didn’t know.
October 30th, 2007 at 6:52 am
From the CBC documentary
1.EarthQuake(Natural Disaster).
2.Terrorism Threat:
Those two cause were base to the fall,which lead to the third cause,and that was a Subprime.
All three reason were explain to Tulip Mania as a element that help form a bubble,and to Resteven that’s where he was heading for in the “state of volcano eruptions”(California)some body sold him a fall,land slide,and wild fire
for Canada please check article posted by ms-kids.
October 30th, 2007 at 4:39 am
Canadian mortgage lenders seem to be going all out to ensure that we have just as big a problem as the U.S. How about a 5% down mortgage that’s optionally interest-only and where you can re-borrow everything you pay!
October 29th, 2007 at 11:24 pm
Ok, Randallbard, you got me. Now go research the Carlyle Group or mysterious implosions or whatever turns your nutbar crank.
As for fascism, your anti-immigrant rants will get you into the Idahoan gathering of your choice.
October 29th, 2007 at 10:57 pm
“they are not interested in buying over priced real estate, rich people don’t get rich by doing stupid things.”
Sometimes they do…although they don’t usually STAY rich long. You need to read Taleb’s “Fooled By Randomness”. Some rich folks are smart, some are just lucky. And there are a LOT of newly wealthy Asian specuvestors. I don’t know for sure, but I suspect Vancouver is subject to an overseas investor RE feeding frenzy. Who knows when it will end, but the longer it goes, the worse off Vancouver will be. Already there is hardly any new commercial development going on.
October 29th, 2007 at 10:31 pm
By the way…..the real estate crash in Spain dwarfs the one in the USA, particularly Marbella
October 29th, 2007 at 10:02 pm
That CBC Australian Broadcasting System documentary on Mortgage Meltdown was fabulous. Too bad these wonderful programs are rarely ever seen in the USA for if they were Americans would realize just how hostile their northern neighbors really are towards their shameful predatory capitalist system. America and capitalism are dying and I’m spitting on its grave. Those who saw the show know exactly what I’m saying.
October 29th, 2007 at 8:52 pm
tulip…..”Michael Randallbard: I sure hope you are wrong, but so far you have proven me wrong.”
I’m not here to prove you wrong LOL I’m here to prove freako is a fascist Bush loving propaganda artist but I have him on the run, always have. You see, I do my research
October 29th, 2007 at 8:43 pm
Risky mortgage securities were packaged and sold in the secondary market to suckers who bought into the theory that the housing market would only go up.
October 29th, 2007 at 4:12 pm
What we has millions of rich jet set immigrants landing here every year to enjoy the miles of sandy beaches.
except for 1 tiny very small problem…..
they are not interested in buying over priced real estate, rich people don’t get rich by doing stupid things.
the only thing that can save the market is a greater number of local buyers willing to do whatever it takes to buy in.
will these buyers show up?
October 29th, 2007 at 11:34 am
“More than $23.6 billion in California housing wealth will evaporate….”
This appears on the news long after the big fish had collected their big bonuses & profits.
October 29th, 2007 at 9:12 am
More than $23.6 billion in California housing wealth will evaporate if real estate prices continue to decline and foreclosures on subprime home loans soar, according to a new congressional report that indicates the fallout from the national mortgage crisis is worsening..”“Things are getting exponentially worse,”
said Haveman, a principal at Beacon Economics in San Rafael. Home prices “have only now started to drop. They have a ways to go.”
However, we need to take this kind of news with a grain of salt.
This is not going to happen in British Columbia, because we ran out of land sometime in the early 80’s, we don’t have an aging population, or sub prime loans, or a low savings rate, and we are not reliant on natural resources, as our economy is extremely diversified, and we are a world corporate headquarters.
What we has millions of rich jet set immigrants landing here every year to enjoy the miles of sandy beaches.
So you see we are the “California of the North” but only in some specific ways.
October 29th, 2007 at 8:42 am
oops… i forgot to tiny url:
Today’s pablum – most expensive palce to buy a house
October 29th, 2007 at 8:39 am
Please someone put me out of my misery!!!
This morning, front page msn.ca – more hype from the hypsters… data based on a “survey” by a RE company passed off as news. Full of “estimates” & “forecasts” – no analysis here, propoganda published as news, I shouldn’t get so pissed about it, I know but I can’t help myself.
http://finance.sympatico.msn.c.....house.aspx
October 29th, 2007 at 8:30 am
Just a Heads up. Tonight on CBC newsworld they are airing a documentary call “Mortgage Meltdown”. I believe that it’s on at 10pm.
October 29th, 2007 at 8:09 am
North America has six inhabited Islands?
MichaelRandallbard, it’s been a long wait since the 1970’s to go off on your downfall of the USA conspiracy theories eh? I’ve heard all the same stories before, not exactly the same as the 70’s but a lot of it rhymes.
October 28th, 2007 at 4:16 pm
When I say “serious inflation”, I mean 70’s style stagflation, not Weimar republic style. Have some common sense people. But in today’s global economy, a falling USD would be very interesting, as the default reserve currency would be in trouble.
October 28th, 2007 at 1:49 pm
You’re watching too much TV propaganda again.
And you attend too many conspiracist conferences. The truth is sometimes hard to find, but you are the furthes from it of any poster I have encountered.
They no longer have the power or control of their currency as most of it isn’t in their hands.
What to mean that it isn’t in their hands. The vast majority of physical cash on U.S. soil. Of public, only 25% is foreign owned. Mind you, that is a large amount, and at the margin, it can have a huge impact on rates and currency, but your statement is a huge exaggeration.
Patriotz has got it, I think. There are limits to badly you can screw people if you ever want their trust again.
October 28th, 2007 at 7:43 am
I wouldn’t and I don’t. But my job doesn’t depend on people buying cheap crap at Wal-Mart made by my countrymen, or higher quality cars
Pratriotz, as long as the Chinese want to, and can lend the Americans money at less than 0% real interest rates, things will continue on, but at some point they will realize that charging such a low interest rate to a debtor who pays them back in devalued currency is not a profitable business transaction.
Remember they have to buy “inputs†to make the junk they sell to Wal-Mart.
China is devaluing its way to trouble as Chinese inflation rate hits 6.2 percent
The only real advantage the Chinese have is cheap labour, but cheap labour is a temporary advantage in a technically advanced world, where the labour component is an ever diminishing component, as automation is becoming very cheap.
If the Chinese want lasting prosperity, they will have to learn how to do it by advancing the standard of living for their own people, and not buy devaluing their currency to sell and finance a bad credit risk customer such as the USA.
Michael Randallbard: I sure hope you are wrong, but so far you have proven me wrong.
I am hoping the Americans will stop their excessive and abusive fiscal levers (war spending), while turning down the speed of the money presses,(irresponsible monetary policy) so far they haven’t.
October 27th, 2007 at 11:19 pm
“Fear not, investors! Cheaper money for speculative purposes will return. This is going to be a complex jumbled mess of bailouts. My forecast is for the bailouts to ultimate be at least $2 trillion, and perhaps as much as $4 trillion in magnitude. Misery will stand side by side with profiteering. Households will lose everything, while speculators in gold, silver, oil, natural gas, and other commodities will reap huge profits from investments”
Jim Willie from the article above
October 27th, 2007 at 11:10 pm
patriotz….the US is not purposely devaluing its currency. They no longer have the power or control of their currency as most of it isn’t in their hands. You’re watching too much TV propaganda again.
What is really happening now is Americas enemies (almost the whole world) has recently realized that the new fascists can be defeated on the computer screens of the Forex rather than the battle fields of Iraq etc. Most countries are sick and tired of the religious fanatics of the Skull and Bones pushing their weight around and trying to control the world and therefore are selling (no longer buying) American dollars and American debt. It’s all over except for the cashing in for those who hold gold and have ridden the resource bull market for the past 3 years. The newest worldwide panic bubble will be gold and silver, base metals, oil and commodities. And its still in its infancy. I can’t wait for gas prices to hit 2.50 in Vancouver. That should kill the housing market but good
October 27th, 2007 at 11:01 pm
tulip-mania…gold is headed to $2,000 an ounce within 2 years. Remember this prediction. It is now detaching from the CAD as well. The action is just starting and you’re out “early” ……YOU CAN SAY THAT TWICE
October 27th, 2007 at 10:57 pm
The US housing crisis and mortgage debacle is early in its pathogenesis. My forecast is for another two to four years of declines, complete with scattered explosions like with subprimes. The subprime mortgage problem is highly visible, but in no way the end of the problem. Rather, it is the beginning. It is the portion which cannot be denied, but hardly the full extent.
People are saying that Jim Willie is Americas top economist now.
October 27th, 2007 at 10:22 pm
Would you lend them your money?
I wouldn’t and I don’t. But my job doesn’t depend on people buying cheap crap at Walmart made by my countrymen, or higher quality cars.
Even this scenario cannot continue long term, and all parties concerned know it. What the Americans are trying to do is shrink their IOU’s as much as possible until their creditors finally have had enough. And then all concerned will have to work out a new financial order for the future.
October 27th, 2007 at 9:00 pm
“and would definitely mark the end of superpower status for the US.”
Patriotz:
The American economy is finished unless they can bring back Volker.
Would you lend them your money? Can you think of any superpower that has successfully (in the long run) devalued its way to prosperity?
October 27th, 2007 at 8:41 pm
as the American economy heads into a prolonged bout of hyperinflation
Really now. Hyperinflation in the US would probably bring about a social and economic collapse internally, and would definitely mark the end of superpower status for the US. Just as it did for the ex-USSR in the 1990’s, or Chiang Kai-Shek’s China, to name a couple. NFW are the Americans going to cut their throats for no good reason, even given the current leadership.
The Americans have been deliberately devaluing their currency since the days of Richard Nixon, but we’re talking about a “stealth” devaluation designed to shaft the US’s creditors without sinking the ship. 10% inflation and 100% inflation are two different scenarios entirely.
October 27th, 2007 at 8:27 pm
Sadly it will never happen
Speak for yourself fella.
Plan to cut GST blasted
“It’s a remarkable show of unanimity on public policy, given that the responses were from organizations as diverse as the Fraser Institute, the Canadian Auto Workers, Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters, Bank of Montreal and the Halifax-based Atlantic Institute for Market Studies.”
October 27th, 2007 at 8:25 pm
While the Americans abused their Monetary and Fiscal policy simultaneously, the Canadian economy piggy backed on the excesses of the American consumer and Government spending.
It is inconceivable, that the Canadian economy won’t be adversely affected, as the American economy heads into a prolonged bout of hyperinflation, slowing growth, record consumer bankruptcies, and record mortgage foreclosures.
$90.00 US / barrel, and gold headed for $800.00, is partly because the US dollar is becoming worthless, As the Americans deliberately devalue their currency, we may see the Canadian currency appreciate even more, and oil may breach higher peaks. But that will be a short lived transition period, as we will eventually hit the stagflation wall.
Tick Tock, Tick Tock,
PS, I am not a gold bug, and I cashed out of resources (too early), and currently sitting on mostly cash, and some Canadian Equities Mutual Funds.
But, you know what the say, better get out a year too early than a day too late.
October 27th, 2007 at 3:31 pm
Just looking at places on Craigslist, especially the Sandlewood development in Burnaby. It looks like some 1 bedroom places are listed at $332,000 all the way down to $285,000. All the 1 bedrooms there are basically the same, I mean the floor its on may be different and the direction its facing may be different as well, but it just highlights how some people want to get out of their speculative condos and how others still want top dollar.
October 27th, 2007 at 2:28 pm
4.Time to deliver broad-based tax relief: economists 5%GST in the making
Sadly it will never happen.
October 27th, 2007 at 12:41 pm
Sat,Rob, looks like you are running out of greater fools.
October 27th, 2007 at 12:03 pm
Thumbs Up Taste the thunder[power pack patch]
1.Almost 60% Young Canadians are home owners which is as following:
Vancouver 54% Toronto 53% Montreal 48% Rural Areas 71% Canada 60%
young canadian
youngpie
youngpie2
2.Canada will become one of the most powerful nations: Tony Blair
Canada is poised to become an economic and political powerhouse in the world, former British prime minister Tony Blair said..
Blair forecast that Canada’s energy reserves and, what he called its “modern spirit,” make for a bright future. “I often say to people, Canada will become one of the most powerful nations in the world.”Blair’s speech to more than 2,000 people, was his first in Canada since stepping down as Great Britain’s prime minister earlier this year.
Blair also cautioned that Canada’s growing power will require greater obligations. “As power grows … so does more responsibility,” he said. “What you need to do is carry with it your optimistic spirit.”
3.Vancouver Island has been named North America’s best island for the sixth year in a row in a Condé Nast Traveler readers’ choice survey that also awarded sixth-place honours to P.E.I Vancouver Island
4.Time to deliver broad-based tax relief: economists 5%GST in the making
October 27th, 2007 at 11:04 am
I agree that the risk of serious inflation south of the border is high, but I don’t see the same here. The rising C$ is disinflationary. Any attempt by the BoC to induce inflation would produce a 1970’s-style bear market in C$ bonds – there are no overseas buyers like the Chinese with an interest in propping up our bond market. Nor do we have a current account or foreign debt problem to try to inflate out of, like the Americans. This would have a negative impact far worse than a high C$ – don’t ever forget that the inflation of the 70’s was the root cause of the early 80’s recession.
October 27th, 2007 at 8:56 am
warren: As far as market is concerned, a bailout is “in the bag”. I don’t want to hold any IOUs at this point. The risk of serious inflation is just too high.
October 27th, 2007 at 8:55 am
That Globe and Mail article is pure BS. This RE bubble has done well for most young people, especially young people not perpetually in school. When you’re young and relatively poor, buying a place is not that big a deal, but keeping a job is. When your job security is completely up to the private sector economy, a RE bubble is a lot better than a recession. Fighting for more hours in a $7/hr job is really no fun compared to having as much work as you can do in a $15/hr job, even if housing cost is higher. As for buying a condo? Well, if you’re stupid enough to fall for the billboards, at least you can go BK when this bubble bursts and start over, unlike middle aged folks leveraged to the hilt and betting their retirement on “it’s different here, this time.”
Of course, I would not want to be a professional student in Vancouver today. Montreal seem like a better place for that. That pitiful student loan just seem to stretch further and even allow a bit of a life for a poor student in Montreal.
October 27th, 2007 at 8:14 am
The market sure liked Countrywide’s report. Who knows if its BS, but their stock is up 30%.
I think a partial reason is that they took a large impairment loss. This cleans the slate a bit, and will make future accounting profits larger. Why the market would get excited about this I don’t know.
I didn’t read it in detail, but I didn’t see any great news going forward, they expect increasing default losses. They did announce layoffs, so maybe the cost savings are a factor.
Finally, the stock has already been hammered very hard, and maybe the market expected worse news.
October 27th, 2007 at 12:14 am
The market sure liked Countrywide’s report. Who knows if its BS, but their stock is up 30%.
The Tan Man has done the pump, now it’s time for another dump.
October 26th, 2007 at 4:09 pm
Please take a look at the House Hunt Victoria Blog. Very interesting about debt in Vancouver due to housing.
October 26th, 2007 at 2:23 pm
It does cost money, yes. Normally though all contracts have MLS coverage included although I understand it’s quite common for unscrupulous agents to ‘forget’ to list or let the listing expire and not renew it.
About 6 months ago some people began noticing ’stacked’ MLS ads where 1 link on MLS covered multiple listings.
I just checked the remax site and I’ve found a few listings that are not mirrored on the MLS site, I wonder how much the inventory is being under reported?
October 26th, 2007 at 12:42 pm
Question – and I’m sure I’ll sound like an idiot – but does it cost money for a realtor to list on MLS?
The reason I ask is that there’s been some discussion on Rob’s blog about inventory levels – and I’m not kidding when I say that there are at least 14 houses in my neighborhood, that have been on the market for quite a while now – that I can not find on MLS.
October 26th, 2007 at 11:04 am
The market sure liked Countrywide’s report. Who knows if its BS, but their stock is up 30%.
October 26th, 2007 at 10:57 am
Anything on Vancouver’s market?
October 26th, 2007 at 9:23 am
According to the NAR’s own numbers, EXISTING home sales in the US are down 28.9% MOM, and down 22.7% YOY. (this is an .xls file)
According to the US Census Bureau’s figures, NEW home sales in the US are down 4.8% MOM, and down 25% YOY. (this is a .pdf file)
The numbers the media report are “seasonally adjusted”, and do not reflect the reality of the collapsing US housing market.