Free-for-all Black Friday!

Unless you’re too busy waiting in line at the border to get some great deals on cheap plastic things in the USA, you may want to take part in our usual open topic Friday discussion here on VancouverCondo.info – Here are a few stories to kick off the discussion:

Bleak friday for Canadian retailers
-Vancouver feels the effect of the writers strike
-BC Auditor general to review island land deal
-There are still slum-lords
-Abbotsford grow-ops sold
Canadian banks face grilling on subprime charges
-US foreclosures bring crime wave
-Black friday halo dims on bleak 2008 outlook

So what are you seeing out there this week? Post your news, links and anecdotes here!

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Panda
Panda
12 years ago

F & M, risk is a red herring with apples to apples since you could buy a basket of dividend paying stocks, whose dividends are very solid and should over the long haul grow faster than rents and and would pay enough to rent out a place today. On the other hand, yes, tax is an issue that still requires accounting.

fun and mental
fun and mental
12 years ago

drachen4% return is risk free. 8% isn'tthe equity in your home is not risk free. the roof over your head is (if it's clear title)apples to apples.i wouldn't compare opportunity cost of a clear title home to an 8% return on mutual funds, especially if i were giving advice to a friend. and we haven't even factored in taxes on that 8% return.my only point was that re-diculous tried to compare equity to opportunity cost without providing an alternative (comparible) bed to sleep in.

tulip-Mania2
tulip-Mania2
12 years ago

Speaking of US link, here is one very close to home.Seattle townhouse prices were down from the prior year in six of the first 10 months of 2007, with October's median townhouse price of $358,594 down 13.6 percent from October 2006,"What we are seeing is these huge price reductions, where a guy's asking $600,000 one week, then $550,000 the next week and $500,000 the week after that," said Ryan Thompson, an agent with John L. Scott Real Estate.

Michael Randallbard
Michael Randallbard
12 years ago

EU industrial orders fell 1.6pc in September. Spanish, French, South Italian, and Irish house prices are already all falling.from above articleBTW GOLD IS THE ONLY ANSWER

Drachen
Drachen
12 years ago

I don't think you can find a modest 3 bedroom in a modest neighbourhood around Vancouver for under $725k.Crappy neighbourhood or crappy condition but not modest. When Vancouver prices absolutely blow away SF BUBBLE prices it's time to sell (as if there's anyone here with any sense who hasn't sold already)

Anonymous
Anonymous
12 years ago

• News FlashNovember 25, 2007 at 2:23 pm As inventory drops…here come the US links.There you go:November 24, 2007Today's Housing Bubble Post – Marked Down From $725K To $495K, Still Not SellingA for-sale house around the corner from us (SF Bay peninsula) has gone through all the stages, and now even the "price reduced" sign is gone. The house is empty. The flyers are still there, however. Walking the dog the other day I picked one up to see what they're offering. The house, a modest three-bedroom in a modest neighborhood, was originally listed at $725,000. Now that is crossed off by hand on every flyer and $495,000 is written in.So, marked down from $725,000 to $495,000 it still isn't selling. No one is looking at it. It is still priced higher than the average person can or will pay… Read more »

Anonymous
Anonymous
12 years ago

Unless today's open house has an unsecured wireless connection, we can expect a slowdown in the number of posts from the Re pumpers, on this blog and Chipman's.

Drachen
Drachen
12 years ago

Fun and Mental:Yeah but 4% is a shockingly low rate of return for any proper investment, 8% is pretty realistic to expect. If it's 80,000 per year you're squandering $50,000 per year in your example. That's a LOT and there is no way that home appreciation can match it. This is part of the reason why the market can't just stall and return to normal appreciation levels. Anyone with a lick of sense knows that they're better off investing the money in a good mutual fund rather than letting it stagnate in a house that's bound to depreciate.

ThumbsUp
ThumbsUp
12 years ago

fun and mental,No,you did not miss anything and top of that on given appreciation that house will cost 2 million in 13 year.That's mean after 13 year when you will look back you will smile that you were paying nothing and making every thing.Pavel bure sold his unit for 3m he should have keept cow,dogs,and cats in his unit to make 18m in 3 year.Solipsist,taste the yogourt ho oh ho.taste the yogourt oho ho ho.taste they yogourt yeah eh hey.taste the yogourtthums up taste the yogourt.and after that put your empty cup here

fun and mental
fun and mental
12 years ago

re-diculousi'm not following your opportunity cost argument.using your numbers, your friend with a clear title million dollar home is squandering approx 40k/yr in opportunity cost while he 'consumes' his housing.the problem with your example is that it over exaggerates the cost as you haven't given him alternative housing. clearly you must live somewhere.renting a family home on the westside will easily set you back at least 2500/month.so in your first example the opportunity cost is $800/month that can easily be argued away as a premium for home ownership.every person will have a different 'premium' placed on ownership.i know personally mine would be quite high as i have a family to house, incl a dog, making the task of renting very difficult.am i missing something?

Drachen
Drachen
12 years ago

Craig:Ok, whatever. It's not terribly relevant to a RE conversation how much they seized.However I think you're mistaken about the proceeds of crime driving the market here. Organized crime LAUNDERS their money. That means that even though the money comes from illegal sources it is put through a legit business so that at the end of the day the money is still recorded as a part of the economy as a whole, it's not like there's billions of dollars floating around the market that is unknown to statscan.

Craig
Craig
12 years ago

Geez, DrachenIf you're going to accuse people of not reading the story correctly you should try and read it yourself. Here's what it said:"The act came into force in May 2006. Since then, some $2 million in assets have been seized including houses, cars and boats, with the funds used to compensate victims AND IN CRIME FIGHTING."So it's not as you claim that the amount is defined as what can be handed back to victims. The assets not handed back are plowed into police budgets. And that grand total is $2 million since May 2006.And let me just repeat what I said earlier about the RCMP division responsible for money laundering, counterfeiting, fraud etc, because it's just too amazing to say once. With a staff of some 75 people and annual budget of $8 million a year they have managed… Read more »

Jade East
Jade East
12 years ago

Thanks scoop for the globe article.I can't believe that they didn't go for the asbestos insulated home. People really need to get rid of this sense of entitlement.

scoop
scoop
12 years ago
scoop
scoop
12 years ago

Shiller calls for major structural changes in tomorrow's NY Times.

tulip-Mania2
tulip-Mania2
12 years ago

oops I forgot……Tick Tock, Tick Tock,

tulip-Mania2
tulip-Mania2
12 years ago

Lazy posts, but if you realtors with open houses want something to read there you go:The next shoe to drop in the mortgage and credit crunch saga will be commercial real estate," Mr. Roubini ominously predicted last week in his popular blog. "The bubble in commercial real estate construction, like the bubble in residential construction will soon turn into a painful bust.""Early reassurances from the likes of U.S. Federal Reserve Board chief Ben Bernanke and countless Wall Street luminaries have proven pretty unreliable So maybe it's time to pay attention to some of the darker voices out there" And they there is this nice story:Any economist worth their salt could see the wreck coming, and boy it was a doozy. The insurance carrier for this contrived carnage was, who else, America's Middle Class.Alan "Cash" Greenspan and "Bronco Ben" Bernanke predicted… Read more »

Drachen
Drachen
12 years ago

"the police took two mil since May 2006."That's not what it said at all."$2 million in assets have been seized including houses, cars and boats, with the funds used to compensate victims and in crime fighting."I highly doubt that ALL of the assets they've seized have been turned over to victims. In many cases how would the police identify a 'victim', are they just going to turn the money over to drug addicts? You appear to be reading something into the article other than what it literally says. I think the reporter worded it badly, I am not 100% certain of what he means either but since it can be taken both ways I am inclined to give the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise.

Anonymous
Anonymous
12 years ago

Drachen, you're joking right? How many seized grow op homes add up to $2 million? Four maybe. Of all the cash, cars and properties managed by organized crime, the police took two mil since May 2006.Seventeen people jailed by the RCMP for commercial crimes in five years.This stuff is jawdropping.

Re-diculous
Re-diculous
12 years ago

Apologies in advance if this is obvious… Let me recount a recent exchange I had with a friend of mine regarding my favorite topic: "Opportunity Cost". This friend owns a $1million+ home on the west side. The conversation went like this: "Let's assume that your home is paid off, then you're opportunity cost of living there (current value = $1million) is at minimum $3,300/month (i.e. 4%). And If you're a reasonable investor able to achieve (modest) 7-8% returns, it's over $6,000/month – or – $72,000/year!I was shocked that my friend – an intelligent guy – had not even considered this – in fact when we got together the following week, he declared that this conversation had "haunted" him. The reason I tell this story is that I think my firend is not alone – i.e. current Vancouver owner's have been… Read more »

tulip-Mania2
tulip-Mania2
12 years ago

It appears that Greenspan has plenty of reasons for why the housing bubbles worldwide ever started and are now bursting."In essence, he wants us to believe that housing skyrocketed 10-plus years after the fall of the Soviet Union in some sort of delayed reaction, and that it was just by coincidence that this happened after the Fed slashed rates to 1%. Clearly, Greenspan is attempting to absolve himself of his role in the housing bubble."But all that aside,and regardless what caused this world wide housing bubble; we must remember that Vancouver's prices are supported by fundamentals.

Drachen
Drachen
12 years ago

Craig:You have to realize that assets seized and given to the victims cannot include drugs or ANY asset that the police cannot prove came from ill gotten gains. That's a very tough thing to do and it probably takes a while, in fact the lag may be as much as a year or two on average.The actual amount seized is probably 10-100x the number you give.

Craig
Craig
12 years ago

The most interesting part of the story on the two Abbotsford grow-op homes that were seized is this:"The act came into force in May 2006. Since then, some $2 million in assets have been seized including houses, cars and boats, with the funds used to compensate victims and in crime fighting."Two million in assets seized in almost two years from an industry worth up to $7 billion a year.Consider this along with the grand total of 17 people jailed by the RCMP's fraud, laundering and counterfeiting division in the last 5 years and you start to get a good idea how wonderful this country is for criminal activity.