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November 18th, 2007 at 3:37 pm
Freako,
you yell too loud may be it make you think of a sales man spin.we are not here to collide because I feel like we are here to assist each other weather I am wrong or you are right.
Anyway
Rediculas,Scullboy,
Good work,through your arguments we can proceed to cycle-2.
I think bubble have a more strength than the attempt to make it flat.
1.When price goes up affordability eroded for first time buyer.
2.When or when not prices are stable or going down then Age to purchase wipes off.
So people who think of bubble then wait for crash they get hosed twice.
People who are “in” despite high prices they are lucky both way either high or low they can get rid off debt in timely manners.
I am so far up to here unless you put further argument to keep it going. till then I can deal with this issues.
Humour me….lets fast forward, say, 5 years from now, and tell me what you see….
I see nothing wrong time is witness and reports are with in the planet plus moderatley market is going in the best parking lot.
Some people are smart enough not to get caught up in a speculative frenzy. Go figure…
Yeah even some attending year after to make sure what they doing and some thought they are sorry and late.good Idea to take your time to make life time decision,some time turn bad the way some of those miss the 16% and 21% bounce isn’t it big stone in front of you.So its always good not to repeat mistake going both side.
November 18th, 2007 at 3:24 pm
Rose Marie Reyes packs her belongings at the Natomas house that she is losing after getting a no-documentation refinance loan with ruinous payments
Naturally this can’t happen in Vancouver;everyone has a 25yr closed mortgage @ 2.78%
Former UCLA Economist Says National Economy Slipping Into Recession; Citing the housing crash
Of course it can’t happen in Vancouber, we have a stronger and larger economy.
“The real estate bubble took about three years to swell and will take about the same time to deflate, he saidâ€
November 18th, 2007 at 2:53 pm
“Eventually the math begins to fail. And when that happens, the wheels come off.”
This mania is identical to the tech boom, which was not that distant a memory, but the behaviour and even the language around it is the same. The difference this time is that the effects will be a lot more long lasting and far reaching. This has lastest a lot longer than I thought possible, because the math has been failing for the last couple of years…..
November 18th, 2007 at 2:23 pm
Sculboy, totally agree, made my decision not to participate long ago, although being an analytical person it does make me wonder just how far the pendulum must swing on the far side of fair value before it corrects….then again, I feel the same way as I did seven years ago about technology……then, the pendulum did not “swing back” it “snapped back” ….real hard.
November 18th, 2007 at 2:18 pm
Thumbsup/satv
I have two issues with your posts.
1. Whatever point is in there is very difficult to grasp because of the butchered language. Not your fault of course.
2. Language aside, I don’t think there is much substance other than vague notions of ever increasing prices and unconditional cheerleading.
November 18th, 2007 at 2:15 pm
He was making fun of *both*.
A little detour from the bull/bear talk. I think only Cohen knows for sure who he is mocking. Here is what I think:
The stereotypes are so grotesque as to be satire. The humour really is about people’s reactions to them. In that sense, he is not mocking Kazak’s, Jews, feminists or any group. The people he makes fun of are those that take his stereotypes for real and go along with it. His humour is not victimless. The Czech village that stood in for Kazakhstan was offended because they didn’t realize he was using them to create his stereotype. There are many other “innocents” in the movie.
November 18th, 2007 at 1:41 pm
Thumbsup said the bike can’t run without chain between two wheels.
I guess it’s true that even a stopped close is correct twice a day. You’re right hon,… but that’s the point many on here have been trying to make. Eventually if the cycle does not/did not end, the pool of first time buyers would run out. If that were to keep going, NOBODY could afford to live in Vancouver.
Eventually the math begins to fail. And when that happens, the wheels come off.
Of course the percentage of first time buyers decreases with age, the older you get, the more likely you’re a second or third time buyer. Hell, I’m 35 and I have already owned a home. I know what’s sane and what’s irrational and what I’m seeing is not rational. Therefore I will not participate. And the more half-wits try and goad me with fear “you’ll be prices out forever! After 35 you can’t afford the financial burden!” the more I’m inclined to trust my own common sense.
November 18th, 2007 at 1:40 pm
A lot of interesting articles in this thread, particularly the ones about the BC economy and Vancouver’s tax base.
I found the seminar enlightenting in that only around 21% of prospective buyers surveyed had down payments of 25% or more.
Yep. Well, the economy is really stable, and there is definitely no subprime thing up here, and with all the wealthy out of towners, and and and…….
Incidentally, I have been using P/E ratios in my complex based on recent sales prices on neighbouring units. For any purchase to make economic sense, prices will have to drop by over 50%…..
November 18th, 2007 at 1:29 pm
Thumbs up,
Humour me….lets fast forward, say, 5 years from now, and tell me what you see….
Let me guess: average MLS listing at > $1Million – yes? and where does that leave the bulk of first time buyers (i.e the 49% 25-34 year olds)?
Unless they ALL have incomes of $150K++ or have just acquired massive inheritances, that market- the foundation of any real estate market- will be non-existant.
…. oh and interest rates will have remained at their historic lows throughout this period of course.
November 18th, 2007 at 1:09 pm
AGE IS NOT CYCLICAL
look at this percentage for first time buyers.
49 per cent were 25 to 34; 22 per cent were 35 to 44; eight per cent were 45 to 54; six per cent were 55 and older.
First Time buyer who are financialy okey dokey can’t take the burden after 35.Now you guys can see percent is going down for first time buyer as age is going up.
Like ulters man said he is financialy well stand till next 10 to 15 year all people are not in similar situation.
He miss his chance in 2001 he can still manage maybe another 10-15 year that’s mean if he should have bought possibly will be paid off till he is going to buy for first time.
Cycle can not run without chain between 2 wheels(I mean reason to bring market up or down).”FIRST TIME BUYERS HAVE ONLY ONE CHANCE TO BUY”for average people only one take in normal circumastances that’s it.
November 18th, 2007 at 12:30 pm
Oh gee, I don’t want to miss out on that six or seven percent appreciation. Even the CEO for local homebuilders assn. can’t come up with a more optimistic number than that. Next year? Can you say DEPRECIATION?
I’m better off keeping my money in GICs and living in a place with reasonable rent.
“Now, if we could only figure out Seminar Guy.”
Some people are smart enough not to get caught up in a speculative frenzy. Go figure…
November 18th, 2007 at 12:02 pm
Patiently Waiting,
Thanks for the link that gives us more sense what we put in our arguments.here is clickable link
Patiently Waiting
November 18th, 2007 at 11:58 am
“which one of you bears is Seminar Guy?”
Wasn’t me. I saw that dude all three years though. I always sit in the back row.
November 18th, 2007 at 11:44 am
OK, which one of you bears is Seminar Guy? ;^)
http://tinyurl.com/yoebyz
November 18th, 2007 at 7:55 am
Dude. I think you missed the point.
He was making fun of *both*.
I’m a little surprised I have to point that out.
November 18th, 2007 at 4:57 am
Yes of course the film was a joke on the Americans. Cohen is a Jew, looks like a Jew, and even speaks Hebrew in the movie. And not surprisingly, the American audiences didn’t notice any of this.
If you made a movie that was trying to make fun of say, Africans, wouldn’t you have black people portraying them, or at least people made up to look a wee bit like Africans? I mean, would you have white people speaking Swedish who were afraid of Lutherans?
Get it?
November 18th, 2007 at 12:21 am
So…. uh… the bit where Borat introduces his sister as the third-best prostitute in Kazakhstan, then made out with her…. *that* was a joke on Americans…. and the bit about his super ugly Kazakh wife …. and the “running of the Jew” was *ALSO* a joke on Americans. He certainly wasn’t poking fun at Kazakhstan.
Yeah I guess I missed the point, all right. Well better get out an buy myself a 500 sq. ft. shoe box in Yaletown then hang out with Sat……
November 17th, 2007 at 10:12 pm
“This all smells like the final lunatic peak to me.”
Holey Schmoley Batman! If that was the peak, it was a $25 million peak.
November 17th, 2007 at 7:56 pm
The firm building the place is from the same country Sacha Baron Cohen mercilessly ridiculed.
You mean the USA? Not one person appearing in “Borat” was from Kazakhstan, spoke Kazakh, or even looked like a Kazakh.
Guess you missed the point.
November 17th, 2007 at 5:14 pm
Thumbs up…re: “our economy is strong and will remain strong for rest of (my) life” – I’m sorry to hear that you don’t have long to live.
November 17th, 2007 at 3:47 pm
Digi:
Brilliant article. YOu have to wonder… does NOBODY smell a rat? The firm building the place is from the same country Sacha Baron Cohen mercilessly ridiculed. Apparently the only people more stupid then Borat are Canadian condo investors.
This all smells like the final lunatic peak to me.
November 17th, 2007 at 2:52 pm
New homes in some US states are half the price they were in 2005 Jagger
Now let’s review the reasons the NAR and Lereah gave during the boom as to why there was no reason to fear a bubble bursting.
Sounds like what the usual suspects in Vancouver are saying now.
Tick Tock, Tick Tock
November 17th, 2007 at 1:31 pm
thumbsup, for you:
http://www.lawtonka.com/thumbsup.gif
http://www.solidsender.com/dstrbo/
news/thumbsup.gif
http://www.kpl.gov/teen/images/
BuzzworthyBooks/thumbsup_lg.gif
you’re welcome!
November 17th, 2007 at 12:51 pm
Another interesting commentary in the Globe about the condo bubble:
Lining up to invest? I’m inclined to look the other way.
November 17th, 2007 at 12:15 pm
Looks like these fools are due for their comeuppance.
But it’s a rainy day in Vancouver, so let’s have some fun with the possible rationalizations why Toronto won’t implode like the States:
•We are running out of land
•Rich foreigners are buying up everything
•Rich Albertans are buying up everything
•Rich retirees are buying up everything
•It’s different this time, there would have to be some extraordinary shock to the economy for the market to turn
•The weather/no hurricanes
•It’s in the same country as Vancouver, and the 2010 Olympics
November 17th, 2007 at 11:40 am
From the Tulipmania article:
“In downtown San Diego recently, developers converted a just-completed “luxury condo” into affordable housing after wealthy buyers failed to appear. No wonder: They all joined the rush to Toronto.”
This will happen to many projects in suburban Vancouver.
November 17th, 2007 at 11:39 am
You know the whole Yong and Bloor thing just… seems odd.
There are far more exclusive neighborhoods…. just a couple of blocks away is Rosedale which is WAY more exclusive the Y&B, and a hell of a lot quieter.
There’s never been that kind of activity to get into any building in TO. Never… ever.
SOmething’s weird about that whole story. Y&B isn’t a great place to live. It’s REALLY loud, 7/24. It’s not that clean, there are no real amenities around.
November 17th, 2007 at 11:11 am
“Every day brings more strange tales of the Bloor Street frenzy, the latest involving alleged ethnic conflicts among competing agents. The whole business is so crazy it seems fated to end badly – just as so many panicky property grabs did in 1989, when the market last collapsed.â€
Tick Tock , Tick Tock
Tulipmania is nothing compared to this.
November 17th, 2007 at 9:38 am
Ultersman said….
I don’t work for a credit union and i’m not married, but have been years ago.
Ultersman,
thanks for the update,So she bought for herself read the link posted by “the pope”.
Divorce stokes the condo boom
“It’s tremendous for real estate brokers and developers.”
Miranda Pearson remembers that when she decided to leave her common-law partner, with whom she was renting an apartment, she began secretly searching for a property to buy. Once the relationship fell apart, she saw real estate as her ticket to freedom.
“I expect it’s quite common, that people secretly scour the real estate,” says the soft-spoken Briton who is a well-known Vancouver poet and educator. “I felt very guilty about it. I knew I wanted to buy somewhere, but not with him. I was having a secret affair with my realtor.
“But not a real one,” she adds, laughing
Long time ago I have made similar comment that”Spouses conflict is a run away success for real estate”
November 17th, 2007 at 2:01 am
“Don’t feel sorry for me – i’m moving 2 blocks to move in with my super-cute girlfriend and will be cutting my rent payment in half.”
I believe you can move with 10 days’ notice if you have received an eviction notice. Check the RTA.
November 17th, 2007 at 12:21 am
thumbsup, you really are even more odd that i always thought. You said:
“Our Ultersman and his wife are working for Credit Union and making affordable income,He almost bought a place 04/05 but missed the chance.Then he was waiting for crash but he has received eviction notice.
Ulters Man I am sorry about that but Just for cycle I have to.
I mean we have tonz of things to do which we can do on certain amount of time and age.If some one at the age of 35 believe in the cycles lets say crash will happen after 10 year,his age will be 45 he can’t buy anyway because capacity to handel debt will be eroded, and if crash does not happen BEARISH DREAM IS OVER.”
I don’t work for a credit union and i’m not married, but have been years ago. More by luck, you got my age right at 35. No i didn’t miss my chance in 04/05, i missed my chance in 01/02.
If the market completes a cycle as you suggest and in 10 years is cheap enough for me to buy, then i will probably be able to pay off my mortgage in 15-20 years and own around the same time as many who will take 25-40 years to pay off their top-of-the-market mortgages bought today.
Don’t feel sorry for me – i’m moving 2 blocks to move in with my super-cute girlfriend and will be cutting my rent payment in half. More “fun” and an extra $500 per month to spend. Life ain’t too bad. Did i mention my solid gold public pension and 3 months off per year? I can suffer the indignity of being a dumb renter. Life’s about more than being mortgage free in my 60′s. Cheers Thumbsup
November 16th, 2007 at 11:08 pm
Re-diculous said…
R.E. is cyclical in nature, always has been, always will be.
Oh Really?than what about AGE?is that cyclical in nature?
Our Ultersman and his wife are working for Credit Union and making affordable income,He almost bought a place 04/05 but missed the chance.Then he was waiting for crash but he has received eviction notice.
Ulters Man I am sorry about that but Just for cycle I have to.
I mean we have tonz of things to do which we can do on certain amount of time and age.If some one at the age of 35 believe in the cycles lets say crash will happen after 10 year,his age will be 45 he can’t buy anyway because capacity to handel debt will be eroded, and if crash does not happen BEARISH DREAM IS OVER.
There are tonz of things to talk about on cycle ,but I will stop this comment right here.
November 16th, 2007 at 8:48 pm
So thumsup, “Never hitch-hike in any of the above countries.”
Robsnumber,
This metacafe speaks different language for me,Please don’t mind about “B”that is magic word
Specially 4 Robsnumber
November 16th, 2007 at 7:48 pm
Ulsterman,
Must be the top….doctors are notoriouly bad investors.
November 16th, 2007 at 7:25 pm
Well, for the 2nd time in 6 years i’ve fallen foul of the booming condo market. Yesterday i got my 2 month eviction notice – my 3 story by Birch and 14th has been sold and the new owner is renovating floor by floor. Apparently, once all the 750 sq ft one bedrooms have been gutted, split into 2 bedrooms and renovated we will have first refusal. Any guesses as to the new rent?
I knew as soon as the it was sold that the writing was on the wall. It was obvious that the rental income didn’t even come close to paying a mortgage. The large one bedrooms were renting for $900.
It will be interesting to see if the new owner has bought at the top of the market – it’s a group of Doctors apparently. I sure hope they have and i can buy something in the next 3 years.
Anyhow, i now have two months to find somewhere to live. What’s that i hear? Ah yes, best place on earth to live. Sure is!
November 16th, 2007 at 6:10 pm
Also I might add London is THE largest banking sector in the world with salarie to blow your socks off. It rains all the time but has the strongest tourist industry in Europe.
November 16th, 2007 at 6:08 pm
As the British Economy Slows and Banks tighten credit the RE industry will grind to a halt. (and by-the-way that is one country where they are not making any more land. ) 60 million people and the size of Manitoba.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pag.....ge_id=1770
November 16th, 2007 at 5:23 pm
Thumbs up…re: “our economy is strong and will remain strong for rest of (my) life” – I’m sorry to hear that you don’t have long to live.
R.E. is cyclical in nature, always has been, always will be. This current cycle has been extended by historically low interest rates, and Olympic and associated “Best Place on Earth†bullsh*t hype – although that just took a hit thanks to 4 RCMP thugs at YVR. However, as with all cycles this will turn, and when it does, I trust you are capable of rotating your wrists.
November 16th, 2007 at 4:52 pm
For thumsup, please read.
From the link “http://www.stumbleupon.com/
url/en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thumbs_Up”:
“‘Thumbs up’ traditionally translates as the foulest of Middle-Eastern gesticular insults — the most straightforward interpretation is ‘Up yours, pal!’ The sign has a similarly pejorative meaning in parts of West Africa, South America, Russia, Iran, Greece, and Sardinia, according to Roger E. Axtell’s book Gestures: The Do’s and Taboos of Body Language Around the World.”
So thumsup, “Never hitch-hike in any of the above countries.”
November 16th, 2007 at 4:28 pm
The trend right now shows lot of new developments trying to burn off units right now. Lots of places in Burnaby are down 5% already. Look at the places at the horrible development Sandlewood. Prices on 1 bedrooms (700 sq ft) look to have plummeted at least 10% in the last 3 months. Hold on a sec I think I hear some air rushing out somewhere …
November 16th, 2007 at 12:50 pm
http://www.whenthingsgetdark.c.....-home.html
Great post on Vancouver real estate. I feel pretty much the same way.
November 16th, 2007 at 11:11 am
Satv err I mean Thumbsup:
“CREA forecasts that average prices in 2008 will set new records in every province, despite a slowdown in sales activity.”
Yeah… And they have no interest in lying about that. Does anyone remember David Lereah in the US? Sounds exactly like the things he was saying a year or so ago.
And about those UPWARDS trends, that’s all YOY, the MOM figures in many of those places are showing strong negatives (especially Edmonton and Calgary) the fact that this goes unmentioned in the article kind of tells you that it’s a pumper editorial rather than a real world news story.
(from the article)
“…recently, it’s been Saskatchewan that’s been doing the booming.”
Running out of land no doubt.
Olympic spirit?
Great weather?
Massive influx of immigrants?
Face it, ALL significant appreciation in Real Estate prices that is not matched % for % in economic gains is purely speculative and it will pop.
November 16th, 2007 at 10:56 am
Oh Satv, you never fail to disappoint. I got your currentc Vancouver bull trends right here
November 16th, 2007 at 10:55 am
Yes satv, real estate will continue to boom in BC…until it doesn’t. Just like being stupid rather than smart works great until it doesn’t. Slow and steady wins the race, it’s held for centuries and will continue to hold for the rest or your time on earth. Too bad you’re not wise enough to see the forest for the trees.
November 16th, 2007 at 10:42 am
Unsold inventory in Burnaby/New Westminster grew from 315 units in early July to 825 units at the end of September, while sales in the Downtown/West End area kept pace with new product coming on the market.
Over 2.5x as much unsold new inventory in only 3 months? Maybe people actually DO have common sense after all.
November 16th, 2007 at 10:42 am
LEG SPIN,OFF SPIN,GOOGLEE,JORKER LENGHTH,BRAIN SPIN.
Canada’s real estate scene is showing no sign of the weakness sweeping through the U.S. market, as sales and prices continue to rise.Scullboy’s friday is up
The country’s priciest real estate continued to be found in Vancouver, where the average resale price jumped $8,000 from September to reach $590,577 in October.
CREA forecasts that average prices in 2008 will set new records in every province, despite a slowdown in sales activity.
the trend is
November 16th, 2007 at 10:36 am
Hey scullboy,
that is with in province driving tools.our economy is strong and will remain strong for rest of life may be that won’t make your friday ok let me put next post right after this.
November 16th, 2007 at 10:03 am
I’m patiently awaitig SatV’s spin on this one…. C’mon Sat, make my Friday!
November 16th, 2007 at 7:55 am
“British Columbia is booming, if you consider broad statistics, but there are two economies in this province. One is the construction-fuelled domestic boom, with condo sales and housing starts displaying continued strength, according to figures released this week. The other is a disastrous export picture, with the forestry and energy sectors – mainstays of B.C.’s resource-fuelled economy – both facing major downturns.”
The building sector is the last thing propping up the BC “boom” economy… what happens when that tumbles?
http://tinyurl.com/2s2f82
November 16th, 2007 at 6:42 am
Another good article – http://tinyurl.com/37t8jn