friday free for all!
Its Friday here and that means open-topic time with a cornucopia of links:
-Vancouver the most overtaxed place for business
-Hydro rates to jump 11% over 3 years
-”What is ordinary may change in the future“
-Another round of layoffs at Canfor.
-Canadian productivity growth at ‘depressing levels‘
-US Economic woes bode ill for Canada
-CMHC predicts higher prices in 2008
-US Credit rapidly drying up
What are you seeing out there? Post your news, links and anecdotes here!
(No Ratings Yet)
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November 29th, 2007 at 6:46 pm
I’ll get to the links later.
November 29th, 2007 at 7:53 pm
If so I would like to nominate:
Rob/Satv/and Aaron Newsflash
November 29th, 2007 at 10:32 pm
One of these things just doesn’t belong,
Can you tell which thing is not like the others
By the time I finish my song?
Did you guess which thing was not like the others?
Did you guess which thing just doesn’t belong?
If you guessed this one is not like the others,
Then you’re absolutely…right!
November 30th, 2007 at 7:55 am
doesn’t mean they have the highest business taxes. It would appear that Regina does.
November 30th, 2007 at 9:09 am
We gained 100,000 people since 1991 and built 69000 units which with an average household size of 2.2 should have been more than enough.
I also noticed that at least some of the unoccuppied suites stats are from 2001 which was well before speculation was a gleam in Vancouver’s eye.
All that being said. What the hell is going on? I mean it’s obvious there is something going on. Best theory right now is speculation. Rampant crazy insanse speculation.
November 30th, 2007 at 9:37 am
November 30th, 2007 at 11:42 am
November 30th, 2007 at 12:09 pm
Vancouver is speculation.
It goes all the way back to the beginning of Vancouver history and has continued consistently through to today.
Two quick examples.
Stanley Park was set aside so the development in the West End could become an upscale neighborhood without squatters and homesteaders building next door. This was pushed by developers and not citizen for a greener vancouver.
The British properties and lions gate bridge were purchased and built by the guinness beer family. They needed a bridge to capitalize on their development so they built it.
I think real-estate speculation is in Vancouver’s DNA.
Global views on real-estate may have popularized this view recently but it’s always been here.
I think the difference may be in how many more people are playing the game of speculation across the board.
November 30th, 2007 at 4:08 pm
I think everyone and the window blind man are buying “investment” condos DT. The carnage is going to be bad.
November 30th, 2007 at 7:45 pm
Yeap, this reminds of the last bust. My older brother’s best friend was riding high, playing Donald Trump to be.
Without warning the market turned and he got stuck with a couple of flips. He ended up loosing everything, including his house.
He went into a deep depression, and he stopped caring about his looks; and wouldn’t even brush his teeth,and ended up loosing all his teeth; eventually his wife left him.
He turned to booze and drugs, and finally got involved in crime, and going to jail.
He ended up being somebody’s bitch.
November 30th, 2007 at 7:51 pm
November 30th, 2007 at 8:08 pm
Joseph Kennedy was prudent enough to cash out of the stock market before the 1929 crash, and he said one thing that tipped him that a crash was coming was when shoe shine boys were giving stock tips.
There have been a lot of anecdotes about individuals of relatively modest means like waiters that have scraped together enough to buy shoebox condos downtown for speculation. How representative this is, I do not know.
If things unfold as predicted, this is going to be really really ugly.
November 30th, 2007 at 9:09 pm
He ended up being somebody’s bitch.
================
Maybe that’s something Satv would like.
November 30th, 2007 at 9:25 pm
He ended up being somebody’s bitch.”
Funny story Tulip, though it sounds a bit apocryphal. Anyway, as things blow up, it would make a great public service announcement about the evils of speculation. I can just hear the voice over….”My name was SATV. I was going to make millions flipping condos….The market turned….I lost all my money, my wife left me, and now I am somebody’s toothless prison bitch….”
December 1st, 2007 at 12:37 am
December 1st, 2007 at 8:59 am
apocryphal?( hee hee)
And, I find this story interesting….
Looks like the finance minister disagrees with the RE bulls, she actually thinks the US economy can impact ours!
Taylor warned that a deteriorating U.S. economy, high Canadian dollar and volatile commodity prices pose serious risks to B.C.
The U.S. housing index is currently at its lowest level on record.
“At some point, what’s going on in the States will inevitably affect not just Canada, but British Columbia,” she said
December 1st, 2007 at 9:15 am
December 1st, 2007 at 10:44 am
joke number 2 is even window guys waiters are buying while bears are on usual habits”complain,fear,sky is falling while prices are rocketing.
I am not a fliper,but busy this time specially some info in short time for tony sorry can’t reach on back page on time so here in friday free for all for “financing”
Tony,
Financing for development is similar to buying mortgage for individuals.
Main concern for bank is:your source to pay back the loan payments.
I can not right down 100 pages but some q tips.-Loan-to-value-Loan-to-cost-Hard costs-Soft costs
Important:Even buyers credit is being checked so if single buyer buying multiple units in one projects and have a bad credit history,most likely developer will have hard time borrowing.other hand if all buyers for the project hold single unit that is a plus point but still depend on their credit history.
What should you account in your construction budget that you might not normally think of?
Two things come to mind right away: 1) Interest Reserve and 2)Contingency Reserve.
Interest Reserve: This is considered a cost of the project. The construction loan is usually established as an interest only loan for the construction period and only requires amortization once the units are sold. The interest reserve should be accounted for in the budget as part of the total costs. Look at it this way: it might take you 12 months to complete the building and start selling units, but how are you going to pay the monthly interest expense required by the construction loan?
Contingency: The proposed budget should include a certain amount of contingency reserve for cost changes during the construction process.if you got sort of idea until here.
In elyse case when ever they have had plan for development till the sales took place was hard to think of construction cost screwing up in future,hard to find labours or workers.
as developer understand the requirements in this case they can’t even think of to propose for financing,nor they have any plan to play with buyers emotion and their company’s reputation can’t even deal with court battle tonz of thing shut off was better option than anything else.
“It’s a financing issue. It’s a scheduling issue. And it’s a labour issue,” he said. “I refuse to put my investors in harm’s way — we’re selling the site.”
December 1st, 2007 at 11:26 am
December 1st, 2007 at 11:37 am
December 1st, 2007 at 12:07 pm
Not True….I visit on a regular basis to find some real gems. This morning, it was the article posted by Michael R from the Independent…a few selective quotes: “buy-to-let (read as: speculation) are particularly vunerable” and home prices at historically high nine times income levels…..sounds a lot like Vancouver.
But as I said in a previous thread…you have to wade through a lot of thumbsup horseshit to get to the these gems.
December 1st, 2007 at 1:46 pm
you want ridiculously stupid? Check out: Rob, tqn, newflash, vanreal, and see if you can tell which one is the same, under different handles.
Can you tell which ones are realtors, and which ones are afraid, of the crash because they were worth nothing before the bubble and will be worth nothing again, after the bubble pops?
December 1st, 2007 at 2:36 pm
You know the old saying: The game’s up when shoe shine boys/cab drivers are giving you tips.
I mean it’s true. At that point the wealthy (developers, banks) have collected their “bets” (multiple hundreds of thousands of dollars).
So then, the banks have a commitment from the lower classes to pay a set amount on a certain asset till the end of time.
The asset then loses value, till it’s worth oh… say half what the sucker paid for it.
Who comes out ahead?
Well the banks keep getting their mortgage payments, which are outrageously high.
the developer got his money, so he walks away ahead of the game.
However, the “investor” is left holding the bag. Yeah he’s got his condo….. but he paid twice as much as he can get for it now.
This leaves him with 2 choices:
1) Sell it at a loss and spend the rest of his life making up the difference.
2) Hanging on to it, which is basically selling his labour to the bank.
To put this another way: If those waiters and drapers are smarter then we are, why are the spending their lives serving food or measuring drapes?
I mean not to toot my own horn dude but I have a pretty respectable resume. My bank exec buddy has an even more impressive resume.
so joke number three is while window dressers and waiters are buying at the top of the market, my bank exec friend is saying “these people are going to get screwed”.
I think I’ll go with his advice. If I need to know whether to serve guests from the left or right, I’ll ask a waiter. If I need to know how to hang a window treatment, I’ll ask a draper.
December 1st, 2007 at 3:54 pm
“Britain’s largest bank said it is ‘nervous about how the housing bubble will unwind’. HSBC believes the Bank of England may have to lower interest rates far more aggressively than has been expected if Britain is to avoid a house prices crash.“
Nothing to see here, move along…
December 1st, 2007 at 4:04 pm
Many well paid professionals are so self-impressed that they think all their financial decisions are obviously brilliant. Including buying investment condos.
Some of the smartest people I ever met work with their hands or with customers. What about all the waiters and drapers who happily rent and never got caught up in the speculation fever?
December 1st, 2007 at 5:31 pm
Those guys will come out ahead, relatively speaking. The point is when even the guys who really can’t afford to be playing the game are in, it’s time to sit out the coming crash.
Know what I mean?
December 1st, 2007 at 5:56 pm
I wonder if that’s really true???
December 1st, 2007 at 7:35 pm
Summer is 2 months there: June and July. Assuming he can rent it for $1k a week throughout the summer, that’s ~8 weeks, netting around $8k, paying for half the place. Plus, he can get some spring and fall time there for himself, when the lake is nice and cold and nobody is there.
There are no ski hills around there to speak of, so forget about winter revenue.
The place does NOT pay for itself.
December 1st, 2007 at 7:41 pm
I understand that point and agree with it. However, we’ll be amazed how many wealthy people will have finally been brought down once this bubble pops. The thing about us working stiffs is we can only lose so much.
December 1st, 2007 at 9:05 pm
every word after that is suspect!
December 2nd, 2007 at 1:31 am
December 2nd, 2007 at 7:51 am
it’s not just in Phoenix
“We paid 516k in march 05, now if we had to sell we would get maybe 250-275k max.
We started looking for condo for our daughter, in Rancho Santa Margarita we found one 2+2 that was worth 375k few years back, our offer was accepted at 190k.”
And it isn’t over yet.
December 2nd, 2007 at 8:29 am
I don’t really like to talk about american real estate but half of the american cities are still doing better.As our vancouver is a metro vancouver again Vancouver is a place to be
all is not bad
December 2nd, 2007 at 8:53 am
You know the old saying: The game’s up when shoe shine boys/cab drivers are giving you tips.
Mercedez,
you are wrong,do you know”who must value the game one who lost or the one who won”
The answer is one who lost,people with degrees and diploma mostly feel proud them self and become loser,on other hand responsible people on the bottom line, they work more hard because they know there is no other option
do you know there is nothing wrong in job classification or occupation status, wrong is dare to think about it if you are familiar with team work.
A teacher can educate you to become a scientist but he/she him/her self can’t be there.
when it comes to settle up life people need to choose do they like to be responsible,do they want to develop them self or they just like to enjoy their life and become lazy in the system.
when it comes to buy housing what we need to look at is that if we are able to make a monthly payments.
finally there are all type of home owners but we got here is some pumped up story which tie us on narrow mind.
December 2nd, 2007 at 9:54 am
Robsnumbers,
I don’t really like to talk about american real estate”
+++++++++
Rob, and I don’t want to get into a logically flawed and dishonest discussion with you.
I just wanted to tease your intellectually and emotionally crippled sidekick.
December 2nd, 2007 at 10:02 am
I asked Squealer/Rob on his site this morning, but I doubt he’ll get back to me…
December 2nd, 2007 at 10:29 am
December 2nd, 2007 at 10:52 am
rob,
is your so called bubble is logical argument?.
when did you last time see the bubble bust?
We started looking for condo for our daughter, in Rancho Santa Margarita we found one 2+2 that was worth 375k few years back, our offer was accepted at 190k.”
“And it isn’t over yet”.
than why are they buying for 190k.
Manage to pay monthly payment for term is more logical than spending your whole life looking for bubble.
People who are in they can proceed towards next step of life,lets say getting marry,raising family etc.etc.
If your so called bubble ever poped those people will be better off on their life than those who are waiting.
lets say expensive houses can be bought with money but you can not buy your age and family from the market.
December 2nd, 2007 at 10:57 am
You missed the most likely scenario;
3: Forget the place, let it fall into arrears and the bank will seize it. Take the hit on his credit record and move on. Taxpayers (courtesy of CMHC) pick up the tab.
December 2nd, 2007 at 11:09 am
Do what the other realtors do, advertise and mail some fridge magnets and writing pads.
The posters here know it’s a good idea to own a home,but we also know it’s a bad idea to buy one now.
December 2nd, 2007 at 11:38 am
http://www.luckycatrealestate.com/home
I simply love that trendy cartoon woman, picking up properties like pairs of Manolo Blahnik shoes.
December 2nd, 2007 at 12:47 pm
don’t you be dissing rob here..
even assuming that he is an amoral slackass is beyond the pale, a reference to a “snake in a suit” is not called for and betting that he is a “lying sack of sh!t” won’t wash here….
i trust you can be more ambiguous than that …..
December 2nd, 2007 at 1:25 pm
Smart marketing I think.
December 2nd, 2007 at 3:43 pm
December 2nd, 2007 at 4:12 pm
Not so much her predictions.
December 2nd, 2007 at 6:34 pm
“The housing slump has a silver lining for public agencies, which are finding a glut of private contractors looking for work and dropping their prices. And the competition equates to lower bids.â€
December 2nd, 2007 at 7:07 pm
And how exactly does falling contractor costs result in falling home values?
December 2nd, 2007 at 7:38 pm
Detached
Week Ending Median Price
16-Nov-07 676,500
23-Nov-07 687,000
30-Nov-07 640,000
Attached
Week Ending Median Price
16-Nov-07 360,000
23-Nov-07 365,000
30-Nov-07 392,100
much more to come but the cut and paste from excel does not work for the entire spreadsheet.
soon I will have wayyy more info in 1 spot. For now here is a taste.
December 2nd, 2007 at 11:27 pm
23-Nov-07 687,000
30-Nov-07 640,000
Are you alright!where did you hide 47k in one week?.
“”soon I will have wayyy more info in 1 spot. For now here is a taste”"
please take a chil pills before you start next time.Hey Vancouver
December 2nd, 2007 at 11:43 pm
What a load of B.S. - That is like saying you are predicting the future.
Freako and Rentah posted in Realestatetalks many years ago it was bad to own at that time and they were proven wrong.
Is it a good time to buy today - who knows? All i know is one thing - if you can afford it, there is never a bad time. Reason is, if you can afford it you will never sell it for a lower price.
December 3rd, 2007 at 12:20 am
Thanks for so clearly defining the limits of what you know.
December 3rd, 2007 at 1:29 am
Yeah and how is that strategy working out in the USA? Central banks can do anything they want, the markets are not going to supply money for mortgages once they lose confidence in RE prices. And people aren’t going to buy either.
Forget the place, let it fall into arrears and the bank will seize it. Take the hit on his credit record and move on. Taxpayers (courtesy of CMHC) pick up the tab.
After you are forced into bankruptcy. In BC you are personally responsible for the loan balance. But if you didn’t own anything to start with, no sweat.
December 3rd, 2007 at 7:40 am
after paying off the 40 year mortgage his tombstone read:
he loved his house…. he had to.
December 3rd, 2007 at 8:49 am
Don’t you just illiteracy in high places? Or is Taylor a closet Western separatist who occasionally lets it slip that Canada and British Columbia are distinct entities?
Fun aside, the rampant illiteracy in high places makes me nervous. It’s difficult to have confidence in such people.
“Yesterday I couldn’t even spell ‘government minister’ and today I are one!”
December 3rd, 2007 at 9:09 am
Don’t I just what?
And “illiteracy” doesn’t mean what you apparently think it means.
BTW, you’re late for the Hypocritical Pedants Convention.
December 3rd, 2007 at 9:23 am
Aside from the previously mentioned lack of literacy in your use of the word, “illiteracy”, your statement is just plain wrong.
A factor may affect parts of Canada without affecting British Columbia. BC is not Canada and is not inherently influenced by things that influence other parts of Canada, is that so hard to understand? Are you saying that if it’s snowing in Canada it must be snowing in British Columbia?
“BTW, you’re late for the Hypocritical Pedants Convention.”
They wouldn’t let him in, too hypocritical and not pedantic enough.
December 3rd, 2007 at 9:32 am
Actually they probably were then (I don’t know the exact date you’re referring to) and certainly are now RIGHT. If you put your money into renting and a good investment portfolio you’ll be ahead of someone who buys Real Estate in Vancouver right now. Do your PEs for god’s sakes. Oh but I suppose you’re proposing indefinite 10%+ returns in the form of appreciation. Sorry to say (actually I’m not), but that’s economically impossible until someone invents a time machine.
“All i know is one thing - if you can afford it, there is never a bad time. Reason is, if you can afford it you will never sell it for a lower price.”
Mmmm Hmm… So which agency do YOU work for? If you bought around peak in the ’80s you’d have had to wait over 20 years to see equivalent prices. If you’d invested that money in almost any mutual fund or even government bonds you’d be ahead of the guy who bought in the ’80s and was selling today.
December 3rd, 2007 at 9:38 am
Ok, one more thing. Yes it’s impossible to predict what WILL happen in the future, but it’s not that hard to predict what will NOT happen in the future.
Prices CANNOT go up forever. There is a limited money supply.
Prices CANNOT stabilize. Once they do RE becomes a white elephant.
Ergo, prices must, at some time in the future fall to balance the books.
December 3rd, 2007 at 11:17 am
what about land supply and desire to live where,there is not much room?
Drachen,
Buying a palce to live in the hottest city you love is equal to securing a shack for your self and for your family,Not from any sense is a bussiness.
for the rest of your argument you should have returned back to “black friday where “fun and mental”was waiting for you and re-diculous.Since you did not, I am going to bring him here.
fun and mental said…
drachen,
4% return is risk free. 8% isn’t
the equity in your home is not risk free. the roof over your head is (if it’s clear title)
apples to apples.
i wouldn’t compare opportunity cost of a clear title home to an 8% return on mutual funds, especially if i were giving advice to a friend. and we haven’t even factored in taxes on that 8% return.
my only point was that re-diculous tried to compare equity to opportunity cost without providing an alternative (comparible) bed to sleep in.
11/25/07 10:12 PM
December 3rd, 2007 at 11:33 am
And take a look at the way the bubble has spilled over to valuations in small town BC where there is practically unlimited space.
‘Running out of land’ is trotted out by speculators during every property boom and is well worn out. It didn’t protect property values in any US boom/bust town. It didn’t save property values here the last couple of busts and it wont this time either.
Price is what you pay, value is what you get.