friday free for all!
It Friday free-for-all time, Local Edition!
-BC Real Estate Council: complaints surge
-Expectations reduced for BC economy
-New home price inflation slows
-CIBC’s secret [insurers] identity?
-Canada’s most attractive city: Calgary
-TD: significantly slower economic growth
What are you seeing out there? New 400 year mortgage terms? Condo-mushroom farms? Elegant lifestyle advertising? Post your news, links and anecdotes here!
RSS 2.0 comments feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
December 13th, 2007 at 11:13 pm
Hat tip to Mark, Randall and Reductimat for the links.
December 14th, 2007 at 3:25 am
He says the paradigm of “people go where the jobs are” is changing to “businesses go where people with skills and talent want to live.”
I think you forgot to add “and can afford to live”, Mario, which is the only explanation why Vancouver and Victoria could have made it into the top 5.
December 14th, 2007 at 4:26 am
“Lumber prices, for instance, are much lower than they were last year, Muir said.
“We’re certainly seeing builders able to ramp up production over the last two or three months,” Muir said.”
and
“Peter Simpson, CEO of the Greater Vancouver Home Builders’ Association, said skilled tradespeople are still in short supply, “although we’ve had some cases where some people are available now.”"
I thought I was seeing some of the condo projects picking up speed. I think we might be surprised how much new inventory will be ready in the Spring.
Bring it on…
December 14th, 2007 at 9:18 am
Just a little anecdotal evidence:
In my neighbourhood in Kits the lowest selling price for a detached house has been 1.3 million for a tiny, small lot, tear-down. Right now there are two houses within a block of me that are completely abandoned. One went through the 3 month cycle with no bites and has been pulled from the market, many of the windows are now broken and it’s being used by kids as a party house. The other is owned by an agent and hasn’t seen an open house or any kind of visit in several months it has a biiiiig stack of couriers on the stoop, thick mass of leaves choking off the driveway , walk and garden.
Draw what conclusions you will.
BTW both of these houses are on larger lots and WERE in better shape than the one that sold for 1.3 mil.
December 14th, 2007 at 9:21 am
I thought I was seeing some of the condo projects picking up speed. I think we might be surprised how much new inventory will be ready in the Spring.Bring it on…
Patiently Waiting,
pick up your package here on vancouvercondo.info 1.Housing starts will surpass 18,000
2.unemployment
3.inflation
4.bank profit
5.immigration
6.population
7.hirings to top firings in Vancouver area
8.Vancouver’s office vancacy rate lowest in Canada by end of 2008
Chaps,It’s Ok,any body want some coffee?
December 14th, 2007 at 9:35 am
This is interesting, Mohican posted a graph that’s been used to show a ‘typical’ bubble cycle.Shown Here
Now if we MERGE that with a recent graph of Vancouver housing prices we get:
THIS
More evidence that the bubble REALLY began in the ’80s, time will tell but I still put my money on hitting mid ’80s prices (adjusted) before this is all over.
December 14th, 2007 at 9:48 am
I just worked out the timeline beyond 2007, if we follow the template (and so far it’s actually been amazingly accurate) the year of maximum carnage should be 2010. Should be a fun Olympic year!
December 14th, 2007 at 11:36 am
drachen!! terrific! Yah made my day. Remember though there is a long period of denial on the way down for the thumbsup of the world!
December 14th, 2007 at 11:42 am
Calgary: Cold, ugly, boring.
…and there are plenty of jobs elsewhere too.
December 14th, 2007 at 11:43 am
drachen; excellent graphic
the smart money is gone, it left in the delusion stage
and satv is in the denial stage
firmly believing in the “new paradigm”
December 14th, 2007 at 2:15 pm
This is a good thread. I would’ve posted sooner but someone broke into my place. I guess that comes with the territory given that Vancouver is the break-in capital of North America.
I can see the ads now:
“Experience the urban pulse of a home invasion six times a year. Starting at $679,900. Buy now for pre-construction pricing.”
December 14th, 2007 at 2:20 pm
depresso wrote, “Calgary: Cold, ugly, boring.”
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. After suffering with Vancouver’s grey skies and rain for 17 years, I finally moved to Calgary. Cold, bright, fun, a wonderful place to live. Only problem Calgary has, I’m told, is the number of Vancouverites who are moving here and who, by their nature, are ruining the character of the city.
We lived through Vancouver at its best … it peaked in the late 1960s, early 1970s. It’s all downhill from here. Expect more drugs, drive-by shootings, gang warfare, a*hole, drivers pulling U-turns on main streets during rush-hour traffic, &c &c &c.
Over the next decade, expect daytime muggings and other violent crimes to become increasingly common at Kits beach, Wreck beach and Stanley Park (what’s left of it).
Do you remember “Escape from New York” (1981)? Rent it if you want a glimpse into where the once-beautiful Vancouver is going.
House prices will at least be low.
As for Calgary, its best times are still ahead.
No, I’m not on medications, lol. But now that I think about it, maybe I should be?
December 14th, 2007 at 2:51 pm
Maybe you should, you’re sounding as detached from reality as Thumbs (except for the rain part).
December 14th, 2007 at 3:01 pm
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.
If you want urban beauty, go to Europe.
After suffering with Vancouver’s grey skies and rain for 17 years,
The rain and grey skies are indeed very depressing.
I finally moved to Calgary. Cold, bright, fun, a wonderful place to live.
I don’t like cold and I had no fun in Calgary when I was there. The city seemed very dull. It was sunny, though.
Only problem Calgary has, I’m told, is the number of Vancouverites who are moving here and who, by their nature, are ruining the character of the city.
Huh?
We lived through Vancouver at its best … it peaked in the late 1960s, early 1970s. It’s all downhill from here. Expect more drugs, drive-by shootings, gang warfare, a*hole, drivers pulling U-turns on main streets during rush-hour traffic, &c &c &c.
The gang warfare and crime have picked up considerably in recent months.
Over the next decade, expect daytime muggings and other violent crimes to become increasingly common at Kits beach, Wreck beach and Stanley Park (what’s left of it).
Do you remember “Escape from New York” (1981)? Rent it if you want a glimpse into where the once-beautiful Vancouver is going.
Man, the rain in Vancouver must have done a lot of damage to your psyche.
House prices will at least be low.
As for Calgary, its best times are still ahead.
I see the repeat of ’80s for Calgary.
December 14th, 2007 at 4:32 pm
drachen dispassionately commented, “Maybe you should, you’re sounding as detached from reality as Thumbs (except for the rain part).”
Truthfully, I live in a very real world but, possibly unlike yourself, I don’t take myself or my musings excessively seriously.
I think thumbsup/satv is/are pretty solidly grounded too. I think he/she/they is/are toying with you, and some of you haven’t caught on yet. How long has this been going on?
—–
depresso thoughtfully and kindly suggested,
If you want urban beauty, go to Europe.
Indeed. Or, Africa. How I loved Africa!
Man, the rain in Vancouver must have done a lot of damage to your psyche.
Damage? Probably true enough, but I don’t think it was the rain that did it. Remember, I first came to Vancouver in the 1960s! (and went away and then came back).
No, man, not the rain. LOL!!
—–
condohype postulated that ads would read, “Experience the urban pulse of a home invasion six times a year. Starting at $679,900. Buy now for pre-construction pricing.”
A true visionary!
December 14th, 2007 at 4:41 pm
Satv real life story:
Age 0-1 year old: Born, 21 inches, 8 lbs 6 oz. Healthy Male. Parents have the highest expectations. Father a Postal carrier and veteran of foreign , mother a homemaker and volunteer at the rosary society.
Age 6: Attends Kindergarten. Gets a gold star for coloring between the lines.
Age 17: Graduates High School near the bottom of his class. His counselor thinks he is a late bloomer and has potential if he applied himself. He meets his future girlfriend on Christmas eve.
Age 20 – 24: – Started renting. He gave up on community college something about a Diploma Mill, and his girlfriend received piercing and body art. She understands his counter culture beliefs and finds him dangerous just what she likes. She supports his decision to drop out. His father suggests he take at Vancouver Parks Board as a labour. He says no thanks.
Age 25-29: – Still Renting. Moved a few times but scored a rent control apartment. Wages stuck at 24K a year, works the night shift at the local restaurant as a short order cook. Got full body art on his back to keep his Girl happy. He is not saving money and has 10K in credit card debt.
Age 30-35: – Still renting. Came home on night unexpected and found his girl with another man, quit his night job. Has a day time retail job at a peep movie gift shop store. Got a tattoo on his arms to impress the customers.
Age 35-39: Still renting. His girl broke off the relationship with him. She removed the jewelry from her tongue. Landlord kicked him out. A good friend said the parents tenants complained that the children were scared of him. He was given no reason. Completed court mandated drug treatment paid with tax dollars. His x girlfriend married another man older guy who owns a home within one year of dating. She had a baby boy, a multi caret diamond ring, and drives a Land Rover.
Age 40-45: Still renting. Lost his job. Customers thought he was too old for the position at the adult store. He works nights as a bar back. No retirement savings, and now he works off the books so no social security and Medicare is being accumulated for him. Goes back on drugs and gets evicted from apartment. Parents take him in against the Fathers will. He meets his X-Girlfriend in a Starbucks by luck. She is working out and looks like a movie Star. He offers to pay for the coffee but does not have enough money. She slips a $20 bill in his pocket and whispers in his ear “Harry Keep the Changeâ€
Age 46-50: Still renting. Gets a tattoo on his neck. His mother is pressuring him to get a tattoo removal. He strikes her, father calls police and he goes to jail. Gets beat up in jail. The judge denies counseling, and recommends jail time for assault.
Age 50-55: Still renting. He found a one bedroom hotel (Flop House) that he can rent for $25 a day. Got a job storing clothes at the Salvation Army clothes drop off depot. He becomes an occasional intravenous drug user. Sold his 21†TV and all possessions. Burned his family pictures.
Age 55-60: Still renting. Gets severe internal pain. Calls his parents. They call 911. He is diagnosed with Hepatitis C from a suspicious injection. He cannot afford the ambulance bill. He moves back with his mother who is 86 and fragile. His father passes away and leaves him his Purple Heart Metal. He gets $25 at a pawn shop for it. He is unemployable.
Age 60-62: Still Renting. His mother passes away and he inherits the home. He gets a property tax bill but prefers buying cheap vodka and deliverable pizza then pay the tax bill. The county negotiates that he does not have to pay taxes every half year but a tax lien is against the home. When the home sells the taxes will be settled before the sale. He will not be evicted. He avoids any social interaction. A non profit group pays for his Tattoo removal.
Age 63: He applies for Social Security and Medicare. He gets his first check $550 a month. The deed is mailed from the county with his name on it. He rejoices, finally a home owner. He has a severe heart attack and dies a homeowner. His body was found two weeks after his demise. The mail carrier noticed the mail stacking up in the mail box and looked in the window and noticed him belly up and contacted police. The mail carrier said he knew the family, the mans father trained his as a postal carrier some 30 years ago. Said the father was the nicest guy a vet, spoke to him on occasion. Everyone knows the son had life long problems. The county paid for his cremation. No one claimed the ashes for 24 months and he was buried with 1,000 other cremations in one grave. The home went to the state. The x-girl friend received a Will and an envelop with a wax seal of the infinity sign. The x-Girlfriend contracted the state and delivered the will. It seems the deceased left his entire liquid assets worth liquid $4,732 to his former Girlfriend from Community College. She donated the proceeds to Habitat for Humanity. The home was willed to the local Salvation Army. The Salvation Army has not responded to letters from the Estate attorney to claim the home. The state may auction the property off to satisfy the tax lien. She decides to open the letter on Christmas Eve, the anniversary they meet. Among friends and family she opened the high quality envelope and opened a letter, 2 old yellowed half torn concert tickets dropped out and on the letter the lyrics to a song. There was quiet in the room as all eyes were on her and tears rolled down her cheeks. She managed to compose herself and stood from the fine leather Chair of her beautiful home within a gated community and left the room. The letter folded in three fell to the floor and the last part of the lyrics lay visible for all to see. It read
“And she walked away in silence,
It’s strange, how you never know,
But we’d both gotten what we’d asked for,
Such a long, long time ago.
You see, she was gonna be an actress
And I was gonna learn to fly.
She took off to find the footlights,
And I took off for the sky.
And here, she’s acting happy,
Inside her handsome home.
And me, I’m flying in my taxi,
Taking tips, and getting stoned,
I go flying so high, when I’m stoned.”
December 14th, 2007 at 4:45 pm
i wrote,
As for Calgary, its best times are still ahead.
depresso added,
I see the repeat of ’80s for Calgary.
That’s what I mean! It’s a great place to live. Add a housing market crash and it will be an affordable great place to live.
Vancouver, alas, can never return to its former glory. Look at 4th Avenue and 10th up by UBC. Where (?) have all the old shops gone? Concrete and steel is all you’ll see within a few years.
Prediction: The Molson Brewery and Seaforth Armoury will be the next to bite the dust. Indeed, that huge piece of commercial land bounded by Burrard on the wast and West 1st on the south and (?) on the east, where the Molson brewery is, as well as the three-cornered apartment building (a landmark for many, many years) across Burrard Street … will all become a super-mall full of tacky shops, pseudo-gourmet fast-food restaurants … owned by … no, not the Chinese … but Dubai investors.
Ask thumbsup about this. He’ll tell you the plans are already on the table.
December 14th, 2007 at 5:14 pm
Seaforth Armory is a heritage structure I believe.
The condo boom will fade away soon (within 1 – 3 years) IMO.
60′s must have been great here. But you can still puff your self into the 60′s any time you want here in Vancouver.
December 14th, 2007 at 7:16 pm
Satv real life story:
great story! i laughed, i cried.
i noticed his life really went off track after he became a ho-moaner..
there’s a lesson in there.
December 14th, 2007 at 7:20 pm
i lived in Calgary for 20 years, made good money, enjoyed the winter sunshine and chinooks. but there was only a 90 day growing season, really hard to live with if you are a gardener. lived in the burbs and commuted 1 hour each way every day, very tiresome.
December 14th, 2007 at 7:24 pm
W2C:
“Truthfully, I live in a very real world but, possibly unlike yourself, I don’t take myself or my musings excessively seriously.”
Don’t you? I find it odd that you didn’t get the joke then…
December 14th, 2007 at 9:44 pm
I just have to make a few comments, rant as you will, all ten of you!
If any of you bears had purchased real estate between (or before) the period of 2001 to 2003 you still would be far ahead of renters regardless of any crash or correction.
That being said I agree now is not a time that I would buy as a FTB, however as a long time observer of this and the old VHB most of you posters have been so bearish and negative that you have missed out and will probably rent forever. Unlike Satv and Thumbsup with his equally silly and optimistic dribble here are some facts.
Purchased 2001 ,@ 195K assessed value 395K, rent 1400, purchased 2002 for 274K assessed at 575K rented for 2150, SFH purchased in 1998 for 385K sold in 2007 for 1.4 million. Where were you bears”? If I were to purchase now I would be using free money! So what if the value falls 50% (dream on!) I still would be in a positive cash flow.
Can’t wait to hear the six or seven of you respond.
December 14th, 2007 at 9:47 pm
Not really worth responding.
You are apparently unaware of the phrase “opportunity cost”.
December 14th, 2007 at 10:08 pm
“If any of you bears had purchased real estate between (or before) the period of 2001 to 2003…”
of course, but since it’s 2007 going on 2008…
“That being said I agree now is not a time that I would buy as a FTB,”
see, even you agree
“…most of you posters have been so bearish and negative that you have missed out and will probably rent forever.”
you don’t know that for certain
December 15th, 2007 at 12:26 am
lasgavias, if you lose 50% on the 100% you made, how far ahead are you?
If I could make a suggestion, with global economics they way they are at present, your comments seem woefully juvenile.
December 15th, 2007 at 1:49 am
“If any of you bears had purchased real estate between (or before) the period of 2001 to 2003…”
Yeah but we weren’t bears then, which is the point you appear to be missing. And that’s when I bought. So who the f#ck do you think you’re talking to?
You guys just don’t get it. The bulls seem to think that the bears think it’s never a good time to buy. That’s just not so. It’s a matter of value, just like any other purchase.
When opportunity knocks, answer the door.
And I agree with a previous poster. Vancouver was such a nice place to live in the 60′s and 70′s, and so much more affordable, that it makes me shake my head that anyone could think it’s worth the absurd prices that people are paying today.
December 15th, 2007 at 8:09 am
Condo Stagnation in Sales? I decided to track condo sales on two complexes 1550 Barclay, and Spectrum on a VOW at the first of December I had 59 units at Barclay listed, sales to date out of those 59 = 0, with Spectrum I had 36 at the beginning of December (the 1st) and now I have 5 sold. So my question to bulls, December is a terrible time TO SELL but how come buyers are not snapping these up? WHY WOULD AN ASTUTE BULL BUYER WAIT TILL THE HOT SPRING SEASON TO BUY?
December 15th, 2007 at 9:07 am
The real question with lasgavias is:
Is he just a pompous gassbag who decided to post on here to bolster his ego by putting down those he sees as ‘inferior’ to himself.
Or is he some kind of a jerk playing the RE game who is now getting a case of the nerves and wants us to build a case for him to play it safe and sell now.
If A: I say we should tell him to go F**k himself.
If B: We should tell him to go F**k himself and do his own damn research.
I bet in High School he was one of those kids who copied off of other people’s tests.
December 15th, 2007 at 9:11 am
And while I’m on Lasgavias:
FAULT: Broken window fallacy
December 15th, 2007 at 9:24 am
Patriotz,Drachen,
This lasgavias is simply another “BEAR” like you and spin his angle to dent “thumsup”.His spin trying to say it was better if you bought around 2001 and folishness to buy know.
Robsnumber,
I had like your post and enjoying on same level as miss Sara magrayan curmudgeon.Your story does not match to mine but it’s worth posting and reading that so thanks rob.
WG2C,
I hope you doing fine there,for crime part how can some one dare to steal with frozen hands,so calgary could be crimeless can’t steel can’t run on snow trap.WG2C thanks to give some rants to “D”Gang.
Anybody else some other time.
December 15th, 2007 at 9:30 am
Drachen,Strataman,
your graph is just an usual suspect graph like other,your desire to post here is also usual let me translate that graph for you.
1.there are nine stages on the last graph.
2.first three stages are bearish “dream”.
3.next six stages are optimistic spirit for “bulls”.
Because of remaining land size and look,Vancouver 2007 is different from 70,80. so your graph is just a “FEAR” for your self.
Do you ever go to see construction sites,I would say go CHAPS and tell me if price can match the projects from any angle.
About the graph if you don’t really know what I am talking about then taste this graph and story meant to entertain all the bears and bulls
“There’s buyers out there, but they’re just not buying. They’re sitting on the fence, waiting for (prices) to drop more. They’re going to see it drop and then they’ll wait for it to drop some more,” said Chuck Smiar, a Prudential Realtor in Escondido. “They all think it’s going to go to zero, and they’re going to be in for a surprise.”Bears and Bulls H2H
MERCI BEAUCOUP!ADIOS/AMIGO.
December 15th, 2007 at 1:10 pm
I find it interesting that you chose to quote a part of the article that the author immediately proved was utterly stupid as your clip to show us. It’s like you have a filter on to find only what you want to hear.
The guy goes on to show that “Chuck Smiar” the author of the above quote has absolutely no idea what he’s talking about because he said;
“I think it’s sort of a false drop, if there is such a thing in real estate,” Smiar said, in referring to the single-family home sector. “If anyone is going to buy, they better buy now, because things are going to turn around. We’re going to start seeing a slow increase in prices.”
Right after the first jolt hit the market and literally right before the bottom fell out. It’s interesting the you identify with the idiot who’s been proven wrong by the real world rather than the seemingly more intelligent author of the article who’s explaining just how much of an idiot Smiar really is.
December 15th, 2007 at 5:12 pm
Investor committee misses ABCP deadline
A group of investors and financial institutions trying to find a way to restructure $33-billion of seized-up asset-backed commercial paper has failed to meet a key deadline for a proposal, setting the stage for a potential legal showdown between frustrated noteholders and investment dealers.
In a bid to avoid a default by the issuers, a group of financial institutions led by the Caisse de depot et placement du Quebec launched a plan to restructure the notes known as the Montreal Proposal. Under the proposal, the ABCP would be converted to longer-term notes with maturities linked to the underlying assets.
However, in the four months since the strategy was hammered out, credit markets worldwide have deteriorated to the point that many observers worry the new notes may prove just as illiquid as the ABCP they will replace.
December 15th, 2007 at 6:22 pm
“If any of you bears had purchased real estate between (or before) the period of 2001 to 2003…”
Further to what Patriotz said in response to your rant….and using a stock analogy…..I really wish I’d bought Research In Motion (T:RIM) in 2001 which was trading at under $10/share and has traded over $120/share recently. I especially regret not doing so since wireless telecom is my industry, however, the REAL POINT is: WOULD I BUY IT TODAY?, trading at a P/E of 65x….NOT A CHANCE !
December 15th, 2007 at 6:34 pm
depresso, you have a great sense of humour.
regarding “Seaforth Armory is a heritage structure I believe”, i wasn’t super serious about my suggestion, but still do see it as a possibility.
some years ago, before the olympic hype began, my father-in-law and his siblings had a terrible time selling a large industrial property on west 2nd because on one corner of the property there stood a very small shack that had been designated “heritage”… a number of prospective buyers backed away when they found out. as i understand it, the “heritage” designation was removed and they were able to sell.
in contrast, the molson property is too big and the public mood such that the “heritage” designation will stand for now.
but hey, does anyone know how much land has been lost from the agricultural land reserve? when answering, please consider that net figures may not be valid, given that golf courses count as ALR and agricultural land converted to golf courses wouldn’t count as losses.
but hey, does anyone remember when UBC used to be an academic institution but then became a land development company and started doing whatever they wanted with “their” land … conveniently ignoring the spirit of the original land endowment. Hey, don’t the Musqueam people still lay claim the endowment lands?
Since we were at one time talking about Kitsilano Beach, does anyone know its history? There was a good article in the Oct 6/06 Vancouver Courier. It was known for many years as “Greer’s Beach”! Kitsilano Beach is a “new” name, invented by businessmen around 1905.
Anyway, after the beach was taken from its First Nations inhabitants, and homesteaded by Samuel Preston, an Irishman named Sam Greer bought it (presumably all 160 acres) from Preston. After Greer and his family had lived on their land for 7 years, the CPR decided they wanted it. The solution? In 1891, the authorities locked Sam Greer up in jail for trying to defend his land. They rounded up Greer’s wife and kids, and their livestock, and put their belongings on a flatcar before burning their home to the ground. The story continues, but who won in the end? Rhetorical question. Even the name “Greer’s Beach”, which had stood for many years in Vancouver’s history, was eventually erased from memory. The current name, “Kitsilano” beach, was a name chosen by the railway, a pseudo-heritage butchered pronunciation of “Haat-sah-lah-nough”.
Speaking of “heritage”, do you know that the then-new government of the Belgian Congo decided to give their country a new name when they achieved independence in 1960. They gave it a name they were all familiar with, “Zaire”. The joke was that “zaire” was a borrowed word in their language, a butchered pronunciation of a Portuguese word that referred to the “river that swallows all rivers”, while the word “Kongo” was an “original” Congolese heritage word. They gave up “heritage” Congo for “pseudo-heritage” Zaire. LOL.
Kitsilano Beach is heritage? Yeah, both the name and the property are big company, big business heritage.
Although popular attitudes change, “who really runs things” doesn’t. Take pictures of the Molson site while you can. Show them to your kids when it’s gone.
Nothing, but nothing, stands in the way of real estate developers.
Isn’t that right, thumbsup?
———
drachen, friendly and polite suggestion: you really should lighten up … or you’ll be suffering from severe hypertension and making extensive use of a very large multi-compartment daily pill box when you’re my age. You might even end up with one of those pharmacist-prepared blister pack arrangements for people who have can’t properly manage their meds.
December 15th, 2007 at 8:25 pm
the authorities locked Sam Greer up in jail for trying to defend his land. They rounded up Greer’s wife and kids, and their livestock, and put their belongings on a flatcar before burning their home to the ground. T
Rennie Marketing
December 15th, 2007 at 9:28 pm
m-c, too funny!
December 15th, 2007 at 9:56 pm
Drachen,
Usually enjoy your posts, like you I am waiting for an overdue correction in the Vancouver market. Certainly I realize that I am not qualified to guess the timing or numbers. However I resist the temptation to gloat over the fact that my home is sold, with the tax free gains waiting in the bank for the day I think it might be wise to re enter the housing market again.When a bull posts trying to rattle your chain you might try yoga or tai chi, anything but taking the bait.maybe resist the urge to tell all the homeowners out there what fools they are to stay in their homes or dare post on this site.
Is it that hard to be humble? Just a thought, good night.
December 16th, 2007 at 9:32 am
Sideline,
you could be in-line on-line now and steer the command because well said but sold to soon like others.
Wg2c,
Sounds like you are in deep,extreme love with Vancouver but you have had bad experience as eye witness.
More and more it’s feel like you should be here while you are there, then what? then why? then,then oye?.
Drachen,
It’s Ok!
December 16th, 2007 at 9:37 am
I am quite certain, that if we were in the Stone Age, thumbs/satv/rob would undoubtedly be warning us of an impending shortage of rocks.
Buy rocks today! They aren’t making anymore of them.
December 16th, 2007 at 9:45 am
Good morning Satv, how is your emotionally and intellectually challenged sidekick doing?
Any sales this month? Does he still think real estate is cool, and that someday he will own some of it all over the world?
December 16th, 2007 at 10:23 am
“If any of you bears had purchased real estate between (or before) the period of 2001 to 2003 you still would be far ahead of renters regardless of any crash or correction”.
It’s always a cinch on hindsight (20/20 vision) to make proclaimations. What if you had bought into the US market then?
Can you predict NOW what the Canadian dollar will be worth compared to USD in December ’08, ’09 or ’10? What about RE in BC for those years? Give it a go.
December 16th, 2007 at 10:43 am
Sidelines:
I have no problems with people who sold at or near the top, or people who hold property now as investment. I think the ones holding on are foolish but it’s not my problem.
I do have a problem with bulls like Lasgavias who are arrogant and put on airs of superiority because they happened to already be in the market when it started to rise and therefore believe that somehow that means they are ‘gifted’ with a nose for the market.
I also have a problem with people like Thumbs who insist in being involved in a debate in spite of having neither the mental prerequisites nor the inclination to properly study the subject matter but instead spout endless useless diatribes with little factual and no logical merit.
December 16th, 2007 at 10:59 am
drachen, earlier i wrote about “making extensive use of a very large multi-compartment daily pill box when you’re my age. You might even end up with one of those pharmacist-prepared blister pack arrangements for people who have can’t properly manage their meds.
i know from personal experience about these boxes, but i absolutely refuse to go for the blister pack things. pride gets in the way.
btw, i enjoy reading your dispassionate comments.
December 16th, 2007 at 11:06 am
yoy prices down in ontario. yes, i know we’re in vancouver.
December 16th, 2007 at 12:03 pm
AVERAGE PRICE CHANGE FROM OCTOBER TO NOVEMBER 2007 FOR A SINGLE-FAMILY DETACHED HOME
SURREY -2.1%
WHITE ROCK -16.3%
LANGLEY -1.3%
ABBOTSFORD -0.1%
MISSION -6.1%
,but oh yes we are in vancouver
December 16th, 2007 at 7:01 pm
THIS IS IT!
There is NO PRACTICAL SOLUTION to this problem outside of an immediate recovery in real estate conditions representing the average prices that existed in 2006. The chance of that is zero.
THIS IS IT! My vision for 2011 is ugly beyond your wildest imagination. Are your prepared?
1. Do you have paper certificates for your shares?
2. Are you still significantly in involved with Internet financial entities?
3. Are you in debt beyond your fully paid physical gold?
4. Are you in an ETF in precious metals where you cannot take delivery of paper certificates?
5. Do you have significant funds in time deposits at your local bank?
6. Do you have Federal T Bills in the non- dollar Cando and Swissy?
7. Have you seen to it that your family is in a strong position?
8. Have you protected your company treasury?
9. Have you, to the best of yours practical ability, eliminated agents between you and your assets?
10. Have you taken delivery of your coins from your coin dealer?
11. Have you withdrawn your cash balance from all banks and brokers? Do not forget Citi restrictions on the amounts of outgoing bank wire money transfers.
12. Are you charting your liquid net worth on a weekly basis?
13. Have you studied the simple TA I have offered you? When the world wallows in complexity the only defense you have is to return to simplicity.
14. Have you seen the DVD, “The Secret”? The greatest wealth you can have is self confidence, which is confidence in the SELF.
Last and most important, do you have insurance against the failure of the system to function? Gold is that insurance policy you pray you won’t have to collect on, but you will. Gold is going to $1050 and onward to $1650.
Regards,
Jim Sinclair
December 16th, 2007 at 7:10 pm
Ok, the preceding message was brought to you by the cult of whacko brainwashed paranoid moneygrubbers.
Now, on with the show…
December 16th, 2007 at 8:00 pm
“Ok, the preceding message was brought to you by the cult of whacko brainwashed paranoid moneygrubbers.”
One little teensy thing he forgot, if in fact there was a general financial melt down the rules of civilization in distress is that those that have something are generally murdered!
December 16th, 2007 at 8:17 pm
Sorry if anyone posted this sordid bit of information but did anyone notice that the “Best Place on Earth” is home to the city that has twice the break-in rates of its second closest rival New York City?
Oooops looks like Vancouver, the drug capital and drive by shooting capital of the world, has another victim as a home in Richmond was mistakenly firebombed last night by druggies who had been engaging in a drive by shooting terror campaign against a neighbors house.
And where are the RCMPigs? Busy tasering starving lost air travelers who God forbid destroyed a 20.00 keyboard.
The Best Place on Earth has the worst crime and worst police on Earth. One of my buildings parking lot was broken into a few nights ago and 22 cars were broken into.
Message to potential newcomers to Vancouver
WELCOME TO VANCOUVER….NOW GO HOME!
December 16th, 2007 at 8:20 pm
Excuse me drachen, Jim Sinclair has a far bigger following than you do LOL
MUCH bigger and he’s not a greedy money grubber, hes trying to PROTECT you. But do you really know anything about him?
December 16th, 2007 at 10:55 pm
Goldbard, I’m sure that tinfoil hat will protect you from all of the drive-by shootings, since apparently we are the new Compton.
One question though, in the impending world meltdown, where will the reptilians be?
December 17th, 2007 at 2:41 am
“We’re only halfway through the housing shock,” said Ethan Harris, chief U.S. economist at New York-based Lehman, the fourth- biggest U.S. securities firm by market value. “It’s just a matter of time before the weakness spreads to the rest of the economy.”
December 17th, 2007 at 2:46 am
Gee Warren, I’m so sorry you never bought any gold, you seem preoccupied with tin instead.
Meanwhile I have made 340% on my gold and silver purchases in 2002. Your kitty litter Knight St 1934 vintage stucco knockdown can’t even match that.
It must be awfully depressing for you to see gold over 750 an ounce. But wait, it will be double that within 1 year.
Remember…..all that glitters is not gold…..except for gold.
December 17th, 2007 at 2:55 am
“Coldwell Banker’s Gillespie said demographic and economic changes, such as rising immigration and employment, will help boost home sales. “People buy for lifestyle, and there’s a lot of pent-up demand out there,” Gillespie said.
My (Mish’s) comment: Gillespie could not possibly be more wrong about employment, lifestyles, or pent-up demand.
For more on the latter please see Pent Up Housing Demand In Pictures.
December 17th, 2007 at 8:41 am
Same pile of crap from the usual “professional sources”.
When will the insanity end! http://tinyurl.com/create.php
December 17th, 2007 at 10:13 am
“Excuse me drachen, Jim Sinclair has a far bigger following than you do LOL”
Hmm, so did David Koresh.
Oddly enough I don’t want a “following”. That’s what cult leaders do, you’re kind of making my point for me.
December 17th, 2007 at 11:21 am
Warren said…
Goldbard,
One question though, in the impending world meltdown, where will the reptilians be?
Click 4 Answer
December 17th, 2007 at 1:50 pm
thumbsup, regarding “click4answer”, i think you must have skipped too many Biology classes when you went to school, because (dearest brother) that isn’t a reptilian.
December 17th, 2007 at 1:54 pm
m-r wrote “The Best Place on Earth has the worst crime and worst police on Earth. “.
m-r, i have an apocalyptic vision of vancouver in the future (kind of “apocalypse soon”), but i have to stand in awe of your “apocalypse now” view of things. well done!
December 17th, 2007 at 4:55 pm
buyer’s market in edmonton? I guess oil doesn’t quite count as much as the olympics and real estate…
December 17th, 2007 at 4:57 pm
Regina, on the other hand, is where it’s at?
December 17th, 2007 at 5:01 pm
From the vancouver sun (since it’s so short…)
VANCOUVER — Real estate sales across Greater Vancouver will dip and year-over-year price growth will slow to four per cent in 2008 following successive years of double-digit growth, according to the latest forecast from national realtor Royal LePage.
Royal LePage, on Monday, released its forecast for the coming year predicting that some 37,000 units will trade hands in 2008 in Greater Vancouver, and their average price will top $587,000.
“Vancouver is a favoured place to move to right now and that will keep house prices rising, a trend expected only to intensify as we inch closer to the Olympics.” Bill Binnie, president of Royal LePage Northshore, North Vancouver said in a news release.
—
so yeah, 4% is about the same as a high interest savings account, isn’t it?
December 17th, 2007 at 5:19 pm
That’s smart. Borrow at 6.5% and get a 4% rate of return. What is that a whopping -2.5%. Sign me up!!!!!! Anything to make that 4% rate of return.
December 17th, 2007 at 5:26 pm
This is from Slate.
“The cockeyed optimists of the NAR”
http://www.slate.com/id/2179605/fr/flyout
December 17th, 2007 at 5:33 pm
Not only do you lose the 2.5%, but there are other additional costs to real estate. Taxes, strata fees, upkeep etc. Not to mention the huge monthly loses if you are trying to rent out your “investment”.
I don’t see how we can maintain 4% appreciation for any length of time because many speculators will be forced to sell, eventually.
December 17th, 2007 at 5:34 pm
Thanks for the Article Richard,
“Vancouver is a favoured place to move to right now and that will keep house prices rising, a trend expected only to intensify as we inch closer to the Olympics.” Bill Binnie, president of Royal LePage Northshore, North Vancouver said in a news release.
Why do they say more people will move to Vancouver because of the Olympics???
Why? For a 2 week sports event in the Winter?
Is there really something I am missing. Am I just stupid?
December 17th, 2007 at 5:42 pm
Sorry I am on a rant here. I just find this Olympic thing so stupid and I am fed up hearing that everyone will move to Victoria because of the stupid f*^@ing Winter Olympics.
U.S. Salt Lake City, Utah in 2002. France has hosted the Winter Olympics three times. Austria, Italy, Japan, Norway, and Switzerland have all hosted the games twice. Canada will have hosted twice after the 2010 Winter Olympics in Vancouver. Germany and Yugoslavia have hosted the games once and Russia will host the Winter Olympics for the first time in 2014. Three cities have hosted twice; Lake Placid, United States, St. Moritz, Switzerland, and Innsbruck, Austria”
Did property go up in these cities because of the Olympics. Did people in St. Moritz and Innsbruck honestly think that everyone would move there because they had the Olympics.
Does Russia think that property will explode in 2014 (I don’t even know which city is hosting and don’t care).
Thank you!
December 17th, 2007 at 8:40 pm
Given that there’s a snowball’s chance in hell of Royal Lepage suggesting a negative return in the market in 08, I’d say this report is quite bearish. It’s would be like a public traded company saying: “our shares are going depreciate next year†or the Vancouver Canucks telling perspective season’s ticket holders: “we anticipate a losing season next yearâ€.
Besides….the rational used for continued rising prices is asinine to say the least. Besides, RE experts have told me the smart Olympic’s based speculative money exits 2 years prior to the event.
December 17th, 2007 at 8:45 pm
“I just find this Olympic thing so stupid and I am fed up hearing that everyone will move to Victoria because of the stupid f*^@ing Winter Olympics.”
A vast amount of money and time was spent marketing the idea that holding the Olympics here would be a combination a wise investment, a vast economic opportunity for eveyone as well as an event of huge spiritual significance.
Expressing opinions to the contrary in most social settings is akin to discussing the earth being flat, alien abductions, or real estate prices eventually going down, and will be responded to with reactions ranging from polite disbelief to outright ostracism……
So, with plenty of marketing, and the fact that most of the population is as smart as a squirrel on crack, you will be amazed what ideas will permeate…
December 17th, 2007 at 9:03 pm
“Vancouver is a favoured place to move to right now and that will keep house prices rising, a trend expected only to intensify as we inch closer to the Olympics.” Bill Binnie, president of Royal LePage Northshore, North Vancouver said in a news release.â€
Until somebody someday champions a class action law suit against these charlatans they will continue to make these outrageous remarks.
I have no problem with snake oil salesmen making their pitch, but when they implicitly represent themselves as “professionals†with the air of authority, without disclosure, I do see a remote possibility that the “usual suspects†may find themselves being defendants if the crash claims enough victims.
Should we not be documenting what the usual suspects are saying?
December 17th, 2007 at 9:31 pm
Clarke,
I even had a woman say to me in Summerland that she bought 2 condos in a resort because the Olympics are going to put Summerland on the map.
What???
December 17th, 2007 at 10:00 pm
tulip-mania2 said:
“I do see a remote possibility that the “usual suspects†may find themselves being defendants if the crash claims enough victims.”
I completely agree. There is a whole reckless industry out there that operates far outside the standards of what the securities industry has to follow – and they’re prime targets for class action lawsuits. Class action lawsuits didn’t exist in Canada during previous downturns so these clowns just go about making their forecasts and sales pitches thinking it’s business as usual.
The real prize will be a massive class action lawsuit against the CMHC – which if successful would of course come out of the public purse.
Anyone and any organization that has provided misleading information or who has failed to properly inform buyers of the risks will be subject to lawsuits.
If I were a lawyer for the CMHC, I would have them put disclaimers on all of their press releases – as I advised when Cameron Muir was still there. Even if they change their ways now, I think they have significant exposure. But what do they care…they have us taxpayers to bail them out!
December 17th, 2007 at 10:46 pm
Phil Soper (pres/ceo of royal le page) was on tv. kevin o’leary was asking “please, please explain to me” how come vancouver prices have not come down with all the shoebox condos …
he didn’t reference vancouver specifically in his response (he actually cited toronto), but he did say something to the effect that people have been priced out of detached, therefore there is actually a backlog of condos (as it’s the only thing people can afford, is my understanding)
then he also says the olympics are a “detriment” to housing. i was surprised to hear that, so i might be taking him out of context. i think he meant that in the sense that all the construction is becoming a nuisance (he mentioned the sea to sky and whistler)
the other thing i caught was that basically, prices haven’t fallen down in vancouver because of confidence.
we’re really a confident bunch in vancouver, aren’t we? i mean, alberta’s slowing down, i think partly due to all that oil royalty thing. in our case, forestry’s pretty much going down the tubes but we’re all still merrily buying each other’s shoeboxes….
December 17th, 2007 at 10:57 pm
back off get your own coffee, issue is to decide weather vancouver r.e. has a ‘bub’ in it or not.
from the above arguments sounds like you guys are convinced from the report chillo chillo mon amy time to CHILL OUT huf……
RE experts have told me the smart Olympic’s based speculative money exits 2 years prior to the event.
why do they make you fool again and again and provide no detail?
so yeah, 4% is about the same as a high interest savings account, isn’t it?
what about tax on 4%?
And what amount to put in 10,000 or 577,000?
That’s smart. Borrow at 6.5% and get a 4% rate of return. What is that a whopping -2.5%. Sign me up!!!!!! Anything to make that 4% rate of return.
isn’t it your monthly payment what you call a money back guaranteed? similar to no rent no mortgage there is no other way your home free home.
If I were a lawyer for the CMHC, I would have them put disclaimers on all of their press releases.
such a waste of time don’t you see thing are going into perfect direction?.
Should we not be documenting what the usual suspects are saying?
ofcourse every one is doing exactly that,tracking you TM
December 17th, 2007 at 10:59 pm
BUBBLE WATCH – CHICAGO
BUBBLE WATCH – CALIFORNIA
BUBBLE WATCH – TENNESEE
December 17th, 2007 at 10:59 pm
Speaking of the Olympics, I found this paragraph in the Wikipedia article on Salt Lake City 2002 Olympics:
“Major factors that have affected recent economic activity within the city have been the 2002 Winter Olympics, poverty, and urban sprawl. The 2002 Winter Olympics facilitated a need for many hotels and restaurants that have now led to market saturation. Urban sprawl has created fierce suburban economic competition resulting in inner-city economic decay. However, studies have shown that increased suburban growth has caused increased construction in the downtown area. Poverty has become a consequence of rapid growth along the Wasatch Front coupled with large family sizes and low housing vacancy rates that have inflated housing costs, decreasing affordable housing. One out of every six residents resides below the poverty line. It has become a common occurrence for homeless shelters to overflow during winter months, leading some with no other option but to spend the night out in the cold, which results in numerous fatalities.”
Were everyone’s eyes so glazed over when decisions were being made that red flags like this meant nothing?
Should have been mandatory reading for all those involved, including the mass herd of sheeple who voted “Yes” in the meaningless referendum.
December 17th, 2007 at 11:03 pm
thumbsup, you become less coherent with every post. put new batteries in your electronic dictionary or whatever it is you use to help you write. something’s just not working any more.
December 17th, 2007 at 11:06 pm
Australian Councils Threaten to Sue Lehman Bros
December 17th, 2007 at 11:09 pm
JAPAN PULLS PLUG ON BAILOUT PLANS
December 17th, 2007 at 11:16 pm
hadenough asked, “Why do they say more people will move to Vancouver because of the Olympics??? Why? For a 2 week sports event in the Winter? Is there really something I am missing. Am I just stupid?”
No, you’re not stupid. It’s really not obvious, and I had to have it explained to me how it all works.
To paraphrase a a post on the now-defunct VHB, the idea is that a scenario like the following will play out all over the world, but particularly in Taiwan:
Scenario: Some guy in Taiwan will be watching the bob-sledding event on TV. Turning to his wife, he will say “Honey, we should move there right away.” She, having caught a few glimpses of the audience using umbrellas to keep torrential downpours from making their $1000 tickets soggy, will turn to him and say, “Yes, I’ll start packing immediately.”
So imagine this same scenario playing out 1000s of times and you will understand why there will be a sudden onslaught of people arriving after the Olympics.
I feel sorry for the Taiwanese. Their houses aren’t going to be worth diddly-squat when this happens; there’ll be as many empty houses in Taiwan in 2010 as there now are in California, and we all know what’s happening in California …. big trouble in RE.
December 17th, 2007 at 11:25 pm
Tin Foil Hat Predictions by Your’s Truly (and have I been wrong yet?)
1 There will be no Olympics in 2010 due to a collapsed financial system worldwide but mostly in the US.
2 There will be an assassination attempt on Ron Paul resulting in chaos in America which will bring about martial law and closed borders as the US sinks further into Nazi style fascism.
3 Another fabricated terror attack will cause Israel to attack Iran and the USA (who quietly and behind the scenes engineered this scheme) will be ‘forced’ to aid Israel who is being wiped off the map by Iran in self defense.
4 The Canadian dollar will hit 1.50 by end 2008 thus ending any investment by Americans in Canada as they completely pull out with loads of profits.
5 By 2010 home prices in Vancouver will be down 50% from their 2007 highs.
6 Ron Paul will raise over 12,000,000.00 in 5 days and top the straw polls
7 Canadian Banks will loan for mortgages only with a 25% down payment and proof of locked in funds of an additional 25% to guarantee payment as the economy tanks here and unemployment soars.
Have I missed anything?
December 17th, 2007 at 11:25 pm
tulip-mania 2, thank you for posting the fraser valley SFH prices. when will we see YoY declines?
why was there no ‘tick tock’ on that post?
December 17th, 2007 at 11:28 pm
WG2C,
Stop Shoveling Snow in Calgary, that barlow trail will never come to an end.So pick up your $100 suit case Right Away and get back to Vancouver.
December 17th, 2007 at 11:39 pm
m-r asked “Have I missed anything?”
It’s a good start, but not nearly apocalyptic enough. I think you’ve left out the near-collapse of society as we know it.
people who can’t feed their children can get pretty ugly, especially if religious systems have collapsed (which they mostly already have) and there are accordingly no moral reasons to be non-violent, because morality has ceased to exist.
at the present, times are good for many, but not all, and there’s already evidence of social decay. it’s going to get worse before it gets better.
it’s the natural, inevitable and necessary conclusion to the greedfest of the past few years: politicians, flippers, RE agents, builders … let’s make an easy buck and who gives a gnat’s ass about the consequences for our decaying city?
—–
thumbsup, There’s no snow in Calgary. I was golfing in my short sleeved shirt and shorts just last week. It was a balmy 21C. The Chinooks are unusually warm and long this year.
December 18th, 2007 at 8:54 am
Gold is going to $1050 …
The Canadian dollar will hit 1.50 by end 2008
So you are saying that gold will be down in Canadian dollars? Good to know.
December 18th, 2007 at 9:14 am
M.R.
“Have I missed anything?”
A whole lifetime of experience apparently but that’s beside the point.
“By 2010 home prices in Vancouver will be down 50% from their 2007 highs.”
Well we agree on one thing. Otherwise, let’s see. ‘Straw Polls’ are done with in the election cycle and won’t happen again for another 4 years, are you saying he’ll win the straw polls in 4 years or the ones he already did very poorly on a few months ago?
Will RP be assassinated before or after he gets 12mil in 5 days? Either way it doesn’t much matter and it wouldn’t throw the country into chaos as most Americans are completely unaware of the man and he has zero chance of winning anything.
So, no bets, no “I’ll never post here any more if I’m wrong on some of these.”
Alcan must love you!
December 18th, 2007 at 9:18 am
wg2c:
“especially if religious systems have collapsed (which they mostly already have) and there are accordingly no moral reasons to be non-violent, because morality has ceased to exist.”
I take offence at that Religion has never been a barricade to immoral behaviour and more often than not it’s been an enabler. Atheists are some of the most moral people I know because they can decide for themselves what is right and wrong and don’t have to follow what a book or a priest says.
Dad hacks up his 14 year old daughter in TO for not wearing a hijab and I don’t think anyone will argue that he wasn’t religious enough.
December 18th, 2007 at 7:17 pm
wg2c “especially if religious systems have collapsed (which they mostly already have) and there are accordingly no moral reasons to be non-violent, because morality has ceased to exist.
Actually human primates evolved due to there ability to put the group befor individualism. Morality is generally absent from 100% of all religions. Other animals also have done so, such as crows who probably are somewhat more evolved due to the fact that they don’t make war cause the other crow don’t believe as they do!
December 18th, 2007 at 7:44 pm
I take offence at that Religion has never been a barricade to immoral behaviour and more often than not it’s been an enabler. Atheists are some of the most moral people I know because they can decide for themselves what is right and wrong and don’t have to follow what a book or a priest says.
wow. you sure have a narrow view of religion, which you write with an upper case “R”. you’ve personified “Religion” and made it the “Enemy”.
i think i’m having some difficulty with “Religion has never been a barricade” and “more often than not.” do you have any sources for your claims of “never” and “more often than not”? do you have a degree in religious history? i thought you were a finance guy of sorts.
shall we split hairs on definitions of religion? keep in mind that the linguistic philosopher wittgenstein turned moral philosophy on its head when he convincingly pointed out the obvious — viz., that words (such as “good”, “evil”) have no meaning outside their use –> “the meaning of a word is its use”. so how would you like to use the word “religion”? don’t appeal to big books of definitions. you discover a narrow definition of religion and i’ll point out a broader definition.
apply common sense. would you be less rankled if i said “belief system” versus “religion”? note that i write religion with a small “r”.
in my view, “humanitarianism”, “utilitarianism”, “greatest happiness principal” and other moral systems leave out a monotheistic god, but — because they are belief systems (“i believe” vs. “i know”) governing/defining morality — they are religions.
if someone claims he doesn’t have a belief system (a religion), he’s either confused or he’s morally bankrupt, in which case he’s part of the problem. and my view is that the fraction of morally bankrupt persons is on the rise; viz., those who don’t really have a fixed set of beliefs to guide their decisions and actions. in the absence of belief systems, we see anarchy. not good when times are tough. better buy property on bowen island, form a defense cooperative with your neighbours, and prepare to defend your turf in oregon survivalist mode when m-r’s apocalypse unfolds.
are your atheistic friends moral? maybe: do they have belief systems?
—–
regarding “Dad hacks up his 14 year old daughter in TO”. what’s your point? the first thing i asked myself is how could you write so dispassionately, incorrectly and casually about a human tragedy of immeasurable proportions? does empathy not exist in your belief system?
do you actually know anything about the tragedy? i understood that she was strangled, while you wrote that she was “hacked up”. do you really care?
what religion did the father embrace? did his actions reflect the teachings of his religion? how do others that practise his religion feel about what he did?
have you travelled in Arab countries? i have. have you visited a mosque? i have. have you had a thoughtful discussion with a Muslim? i have. some of the most moral persons I have met are deeply religious followers of Islam. do you know anything meaningful about Islam? what are the teachings of Islam regarding strangers? regarding hospitality? how do you treat strangers? do you practise hospitality … (no, “entertaining” doesn’t count). can you really reasonably describe all followers of Islam in an uncomplimentary way? it would be wrong to do so, because it would be exceptionally inaccurate.
or is this about Christianity? after all, you mentioned priests. do you think that because you live in a country that has a Christian heritage and know at least one Christian bigot, that therefore you understand Christianity?
i don’t think you understand Christianity any more than you understand Islam.
i know, “so much has been done in the name of Religion, especially Christianity, that …. blah, blah, blah”.
before you paint everyone with the same brush, what about Mother Teresa, and all she did in the name of religion? how about Ghandi? he brought down the british empire and liberated his countrymen from oppression! are you going to tell me he had no religion? come on, he believed that religion and morality and life were inseparable, and that there was no higher religion than the search for and practice of truth and righteousness.
how about that Christian guy named Albert Schweitzer? an accomplished musician who wrote the definitive work on Bach, a medical doctor, theologian, organ builder, etc., etc., etc. …. and a truly religious man who gave it all up to set up a hospital in the middle of nowhere … Lambarena, French Equatorial Africa (now Gabon).
to me, the most interesting thing about Schweitzer is that he held Western Civilization, including the Church, in absolute contempt for the way they treated persons from non-Western cultures. he had as much contempt for Religion as it would seem you do, yet he practised his religion with a fervent ardour. did ya know he got a peace prize for his lifelong dedication to his philosophy of “reverence for life” … importantly for me he believed that Western civilization was in decay because it was gradually abandoning its ethical foundations.
not everyone involved with “religion” is or has been as amoral and hypocritical as Pope Alexander VI and some of his contemporaries, the “secular” popes of the 15th century. if this is what you’re reacting to when you think “Religion”, you’re absolutely on the right track … it means you’ve got a heart and a brain.
as for people who lack religion, Schweitzer was right.
December 18th, 2007 at 7:46 pm
yes freako in the last few months since summer the CAD has outperformed gold. I meant to quote Sinclair who saus first 1050 then 1650 but doesn’t give a time frame nor can anyone…
“Fundamental Conclusions:
1. Gold is headed to $1050 and then onward to $1650.
2. The US dollar is headed to .7200 and will then continue its downtrend into the .6000s and the .5000s.
3. The cause can be found by a study of the Weimar experience. Drop the words “War Reparations†and replace them with “Credit and default derivative meltdown.â€
4. There is no practical solution to the present credit problem and its effects.
5. There are many academic solutions to the credit problem but not one that will not backfire, making it a greater mess than it is.
6. Monetary inflation proceeds price inflation. Price inflation, already wild if measured by the same procedures as in the 70s, is going to get wild on the present camouflage procedures.
7. The swings in the equity markets will burn your hair as the PPT works to prevent it and massive liquidity confronts it with declining earnings providing a huge force of gravity.
This is it. PROTECT YOURSELF. YOU ARE THE BULLDOZER. PAY NO ATTENTION AND YOU WILL BECOME THE PAVEMENT. It will be your fault that your finances become asphalt.
Regards,
Jim”
December 18th, 2007 at 7:46 pm
Morality is generally absent from 100% of all religions.
see above.
crows … probably are somewhat more evolved due to the fact that they don’t make war cause the other crow don’t believe as they do!
we should learn from the crows, for sure!!!
December 18th, 2007 at 7:51 pm
its always the case that gold goes up against some currencies and down against others but whether or not the CAD goes to 1.50 the event I’m looking for is when gold detaches from all currencies and rises against all of them. But while I have lost on my gold and silver in the past 3 or 4 months on paper, I was lucky enough to buy in 2002 at much lower prices and so am up roughly 350% in USD terms so this is still a very healthy return, and I don’t need to put it on the market with a realtor and sit and watch it not sell for years. I can sell it in 1 minute should I choose to and there is ALWAYS a buyer. ALWAYS
December 18th, 2007 at 7:55 pm
“I take offence at that Religion has never been a barricade to immoral behaviour and more often than not it’s been an enabler”
“Hitler, another great “Man of peace” was a devout Catholic and strict vegetarian. He hated blood-sports so much, fox hunting was banned as soon as he came into power. Pope Pius XI supported Hitler which is why the Roman Catholic people of Germany voted Hitler into power. With him he brought the peaceful symbol of the Hindus, Sikhs and Freemasons. The Nazi cross.”
December 18th, 2007 at 11:27 pm
Blogger wg2c said…
WOW, you really get excited about the religion… good read anyways..
I quickly check the Webster and to my BIG surprise I found the following definition of “religion”
1 a: the state of a religious b (1): the service and worship of God or the supernatural (2): commitment or devotion to religious faith or observance
2: a personal set or institutionalized system of religious attitudes, beliefs, and practices
3archaic : scrupulous conformity : conscientiousness
4: a cause, principle, or system of beliefs held to with ardor and faith
number 4 really surprised me.. and it really fits to the way you use “religion” I hope that you understand that most of the people never use “religion” to refer to belief system (at least I never use)
December 19th, 2007 at 12:40 am
m-r, regarding “Hitler, another great ‘Man of peace’ was a devout Catholic and strict vegetarian.”
truly, hitler epitomized evil. but when someone labels themselves as something, does that make it so? so if a modern-day hitler said “hey man, i’m a devout catholic”, would you really believe him? hey, if a realtor says the RE market’s going up, does that make it so?
since we’re on the topic of hitler and his Religion, let’s talk about dietrich bonhoeffer, effectively a hero of the Christian faith for possibly being the only high profile german theologian who refused to adapt his theology to the nazi vision of things. he was outspoken and his writings are studied even today, by sincere and committed theological students of many denominations.
having opposed hitler since he came to power in the early 1930s, bonhoeffer was finally hanged by the Germans in april 1945, not so long before the allies reach the camp in which he was imprisoned.
have you seen the movie “sophie scholl”? a good movie to see. this was a young woman, raised as a lutheran, and finally executed by guillotine (yes, still in use in 1943) for distributing anti-war leaflets at a university. wikipedia says that “in 2005, a ZDF Television audience survey voted Hans and Sophie the fourth greatest Germans of all time.” (Hans was her brother).
not bad for a young lutheran. did she distribute the pamphlets because she was a lutheran? i doubt it, but her lutheranism shaped her values.
speaking of lutherans, martin luther’s actions were a Christian response to the excesses of the secular popes who claimed to be Christ’s representatives on earth. pretty courageous act to publicly nail 95 criticisms of the Church (and the Pope) to the door of a church.
yin and yang –> you can find it in the Christian religion for certain, and i expect you can find it in other world religions as well. don’t focus on the yin. look for the yang.
how about Sikhism? what horrors have been committed (allegedly) by Sikhs? Air India!
yet the origins of Sikhism, as i understand it, are based on the brotherhood of man and religious tolerance … on my visit to a Sikh temple many years ago, i was told that Sikhs believed they had an obligation to feed strangers and visitors to the temple, and that the garden attached to the temple was integral to that way of thinking. otoh, i may be wrong on this, sometimes memory fails.
when i was in Central African Republic, shortly after the overthrow of the evil Boukassa (the guy who crowned himself emperor and even invited Queen E II to attend!), i met a (white) Sihk couple from Victoria (BC) who had been there for quite some time as practical (skill-teaching) missionaries. what considerable good they must have accomplished, and what risks they must have taken to be there during boukassa’s time. the night over boukassa’s overthrow was frightening indeed.
evil men are evil men. hitler. the secular popes. boukassa. idi amin (outwardly a Muslim, but no heart conversion and thus not a true Muslim).
if evil men proclaim themselves followers of a monotheistic, loving god and take control of an established religion (e.g., hitler, the secular popes), then their “Religion” must be rejected.
but the statement made earlier, that “Religion has never been a barricade to immoral behaviour and more often than not it’s been an enabler” has been a popular view for many, many decades amongst pseudo-intellectuals who don’t know the first thing about religion. it’s old, it’s not original thinking, it’s way older than passé, and nobody should get any “i’m clever” points for bringing it up.
do you have any Doukhabour friends? did you know that these people are important members of B.C.’s cultural heritage? When Doukhabour communes still existed in the Kootenays, Doukhabours were deeply religious and pacifists; they simply wanted to be left alone; indeed they came to Canada for religious freedom. But what did our secular government do? Via dawn raids, the RCMP systematically took the children away from the communes and forced them into government-run schools in camps!. A good example of secular persecution of a religious group. Regrettably, the response to this of a particular subgroup of the Doukhabours was bad — the “Sons of Freedom” bombed power lines in the Kootenays and even planted a bomb in the Odeon Theatre in Trail (a city in BC, trust me). These guys were not practising Doukhabour religion. Indeed, the norm for Doukhabours, repeated in history, was that they would get into trouble with government by refusing military service — they opposed war. Growing up as i did in the days of the Sons of Freedom, it would never have crossed my mind that my high school Doukhabour friend’s religion sanctioned the violence.
December 19th, 2007 at 9:10 am
wg2c:
Wow you really don’t want to go down the philosophy road with me. I’ll go all Ayer on your ass.
Do you want me to offer proof that Religion is inherently immoral? I’d be happy to do so but I normally don’t bother because anyone who actually follows the logic and accepts it already knows the truth, those that don’t will refute it under any circumstances.
asalvari:
Adherence to a moral or ethical code does not require faith or ardor. Therefore #4 is out too.
December 19th, 2007 at 7:03 pm
I had friends back then that were Sons of Freedom and visited their homes in Trail and Aggasiz, most interesting but too young to understand all that stuff then.
——————
Lets go back before Hitler and address this currency issue that I believe will result in gold going through the roof.
Can this quoted excerpt happen here?
————————–
“”By July 1922, the German Mark fell to 300 marks for $1; in November it was at 9,000 to $1; by January 1923 it was at 49,000 to $1; by July 1923, it was at 1,100,000 to $1. It reached 2! 5 trillion marks to $1 in mid-November 1923, varying from city to city. So the printing presses ran, and once they began to run, they were hard to stop. The price increases began to be dizzying. Menus in cafes could not be revised quickly enough. A student at Freiburg University ordered a cup of coffee at a cafe. The price on the menu was 5,000 Marks. He had two cups. When the bill came, it was for 14,000 Marks. “If you want to save money,” he was told, “and you want two cups of coffee, you should order them both at the same time.”The presses of the Reichsbank could not keep up though they ran through the night. Individual cities and states began to issue their own money. Dr. Havenstein, the president of the Reichsbank, did not get his new suit. A factory worker described payday, which was every day at 11:00 a.m.: “At 11:00 in the morning a siren sounded, and everybody gathered in the factory forecourt, where a five-ton lorry was drawn up loaded brimful with paper money. The chief cashier and his assistants climbed up on top. They read out names and just threw out bundles of notes. As soon as you had caught one you made a dash for the nearest shop and bought just anything that was going.” Teachers, paid at 10:00 a.m., brought their money to the playground, where relatives took the bundles and hurried off with them. Banks closed at 11:00 a.m.; the harried clerks went on strike. “The flight from currency that had begun with the buying of diamonds, gold, country houses, and antiques now extended to minor and almost useless items — bric-a-brac, soap, hairpins. The law-abiding country crumbled into petty thievery. Copper pipes and brass armatures weren’t safe. Gasoline was siphoned from cars. People bought things they didn’t need and used them to barter — a pair of shoes for a shirt, some crockery for coffee. Berlin had a “witches’ Sabbath” atmosphere. Prostitutes of both sexes roamed the streets. Cocaine was the fashionable drug. In the cabarets the newly rich and their foreign friends could dance and spend money. Other reports noted that not all the young people had a bad time. Their parents had taught them to work and save, and that was clearly wrong, so they could spend money, enjoy themselves, and flout the old. The publisher Leopold Ullstein wrote: “People just didn’t understand what was happening. All the economic theory they had been taught didn’t provide for the phenomenon. There was a feeling of utter dependence on anonymous powers — almost as a primitive people believed in magic — that somebody must be in the know, and that this small group of ‘somebodies’ must be a conspiracy.”When the 1,000-billion Mark note came out, few bothered to collect the change when they spent it. By November 1923, with one dollar equal to one trillion Marks, the breakdown was complete. The currency had lost meaning.”
December 19th, 2007 at 7:14 pm
But while I have lost on my gold and silver in the past 3 or 4 months on paper, I was lucky enough to buy in 2002 at much lower prices and so am up roughly 350% in USD terms so this is still a very healthy return.
Well by that very same logic (hindsight) the real estate bulls who you deride are equally successful.
As for the rest of the thread, what is going on? Doesn’t Godwin’s Law apply anymore?
December 19th, 2007 at 7:35 pm
Hey wg2c!How yah doin fellow monkey?
December 20th, 2007 at 9:47 am
Wow you really don’t want to go down the philosophy road with me. I’ll go all Ayer on your ass.
i prefer russell’s popular philosophy to ayer at his best.
i particularly like russell’s essay “on being modern-minded”, but ’nuff said about that.
so how did this start? i think because you decided with your own free will to somehow be “offended” because i said something about small-r religion and you knew some atheists that you think are moral.
my mother liked to complain a lot. i used to get annoyed with her until i understood that it was one of the few remaining pleasures she had in life.
as for you, i wonder if you simply derive pleasure from being “offended” or from “not suffering fools gladly” or from “having a problem with” certain types of people, as you confessed in an earlier post.
oh-kee-do-key. i’ll keep that in mind for the next time!!
December 20th, 2007 at 9:48 am
As for the rest of the thread, what is going on? Doesn’t Godwin’s Law apply anymore?
good point.
December 20th, 2007 at 10:14 am
Since you seem to have forgotten;
“especially if religious systems have collapsed (which they mostly already have) and there are accordingly no moral reasons to be non-violent, because morality has ceased to exist.”
Implying that without religion people are incapable of being moral or non violent. I merely pointed out that religion has been a cornerstone behind more violence in the history of Man than anything else (with the debatable exception of wealth). Atheism, secularism, ‘lack of religion’, has been responsible for (to the best of my knowledge) exactly zero violence.
I take offence when religious people adopt a (if you’ll pardon the pun) ‘holier than thou’ attitude because they don’t understand how someone can actually be moral without the wrath of God looming over their shoulder. To me this demonstrates that the failing is a lack of the ability to relate to people who are different from yourself that is typical of all religions, which in turn is a big factor in the amorality and violence in religious people.
December 20th, 2007 at 6:47 pm
freako,,,wow you are just full of logic today aren’t you?
When paper money is long gone gold will still be here. Every ounce of gold ever mined on this planet is still here somewhere. Most houses built a hundred years ago in Vancouver are dust and rust.
Ideally a homeowner would have his HOME paid for and 50% of that value hedged with precious metals.
December 20th, 2007 at 7:31 pm
I hate to break it to you M.R. but if paper money ever becomes worthless you’ll be kicking yourself for investing in gold rather than in a fortress with lots of guns and ammunition.
December 20th, 2007 at 8:25 pm
wg2c “and you knew some atheists that you think are moral.” so besides hate what else can you do some ateists who you THINK are moral? All atheists are moral excepth the mentally retarded, which by the way would include all so called believers, who for the the most part are moral with the exception of the mentally retarded.
December 20th, 2007 at 9:12 pm
freako,,,wow you are just full of logic today aren’t you?
Nah, I just like to perforate tinfoil.