Friday Free for All!

Its open topic time - here’s a few stories I’ve noticed this week:

-RBC: Vancouver prices at record unaffordability
-Metro Vancouver housing starts at highest level since 1993
-Vancouver house sales predicted to dip in 2008
-Affordability predicted to improve in Vancouver
-Victoria to grant individual realtors corporate status
-Calgary vacancies rise as housing market softens
-Canadians less confident about the economy
-Credit crunch dries up lending pool
-The bank most likely to walk into a sharp object
-US median house prices fall through 2007, first time in 40 years

What are you seeing out there? Post your news, links and anecdotes here!

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104 Responses to “Friday Free for All!”

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  1. 1
    patriotz Says:
    Captain Obvious lands in Vancouver:

    VANCOUVER — The biggest barrier to stabilizing the chaotic U.S. housing market is the oversupply of homes that cash-strapped builders are flogging at rock-bottom prices, former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan says.

    “If there were some kind of alchemy whereby we could pick up all these 300,000 units, that would stabilize the markets,” Mr. Greenspan told a Vancouver audience on Thursday. He was referring to the number of homes in the U.S. that were estimated to be under or near construction when the subprime mortgage market began to unravel.

    Well gee Al, if someone were willing to pay me the same speaking fees you’re getting for spouting stuff like this, I could quit my day job.

    The address, a question-and-answer session with Sherry Cooper, chief economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., marked his first public appearance since last week’s global market turmoil and Monday’s historic rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve Board.

    Oh spare my beating heart.

    Current score: 0
  2. 2
    Michael Randallbard Says:
    Around the nation

    The APM figures indicate the median house price in Sydney increased 0.8 per cent in the December quarter to just over $553,000.

    The median house price in Melbourne surged 9.4 per cent in the December quarter to more than $463,000.

    The median house price in Brisbane rose 3.9 per cent in the December quarter to just over $425,000.

    The median house price in Adelaide jumped 6.7 per cent in the December quarter to almost $401,000.

    The median house price in Canberra jumped 6.7 per cent in the December quarter to almost $507,000.

    The median house price in Perth slipped 0.4 per cent in the December quarter to just under $509,000.

    The median house price in Darwin rose 5.1 per cent in the December quarter to just under $444,000.

    Current score: 0
  3. 3
    patriotz Says:
    Over half the population of Oz lives in these cities. Didn’t you get a bit tetchy when I said the average (or median if you will) house price in Oz is higher than in Canada and the US?

    But they’re not making any more land in Australia you know.

    Current score: 0
  4. 4
    Re-diculous Says:
    The Province today had an article: “Affordibility at 17-year low”. I guess the thing I found interesting is that unlike Province RE articles of the past, I found it easier to read - no cheerleading and bullish tone, instead, I believe, a subtle warning to those thinking of entering the market. Foe instance, this quote:

    “In B.C. a staggering 70.8% of income is required to own a standard two storey home, campared to the national average of 47.4%, Vancouver is particularily expensive with a standard two storey home requiring 75.2%”

    I take that as a warning from this pumper paper of the past that things are way out of whack.

    Current score: 0
  5. 5
    Swirlyman Says:
    Revised Swirlyman edition of the CTV.ca article:

    Buying a house will become a hell of a lot harder in 2008, according to Swirlyman.

    Canadians in the market for a new home will likely be harmed by dropping interest rates. Just this week, the Bank of Canada cut its key rate by one-quarter of a percentage point Tuesday.

    Derek Holt, assistant chief economist at RBC, says he expects consumers will benefit as longer-term mortgage rates come down. He added that central banks will probably lower interest rates further — perhaps by a full percentage point — and that should make short-term mortgages more affordable.

    Swirlyman, who avoided brain-damaging economics courses entirely, expects existing homeowners whose mortgages are soon coming up for renewal, may find some relief that their new payments won’t be as high as they thought they would be. However, consumers looking to buy this year will see continued price increases as more affordable mortgages will bring back bidding wars.

    Current score: 0
  6. 6
    Patiently Waiting Says:
    http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/.....using.html

    “People in Vancouver were identified as the most likely in the country to exceed the affordability standard, with 44 per cent of residents reporting doing so at least once during the three-year time frame.”

    This compares to 28% across the country. No wonder people in Eastern and Central Canada think we’re insane.

    Current score: 0
  7. 7
    exx Says:
    http://www.cbc.ca/canada/briti.....owers.html

    “Improvements, including replacing the stadium’s Teflon roof, could be paid for by allowing development on other corporation lands currently used as parking lots surrounding the building, Podmore said on Friday.”

    Please…no more condos downtown, I’m feeling claustrophobic as it is!

    Current score: 0
  8. 8
    Anonymous Says:
    Why did Calgary have such a quick up and down whereas in Vancouver it has been long and drawn out? Any ideas?

    Current score: 0
  9. 9
    Strataman Says:
    “Why did Calgary have such a quick up and down whereas in Vancouver it has been long and drawn out? Any ideas?” because Calgary is basically a local market, which on one hand is positive for Vancouver and on the other hand negative. By that I mean a foreign economy likely China will decide when Vancouver crashes or booms. Calgary is strictly the commodities market as it applies to Calgary; thats it! Nobody buys in Calgary to escape unstable countries, they buy in Vancouver. Sounds good right? I think it stinks cause a foreign economy will totally decide Vancouvers future, the residents here will have little to say about it except yes sir! :-)
    Current score: 0
  10. 10
    seasonal affected disorder Says:
    Nobody buys in Calgary to escape unstable countries, they buy in Vancouver.

    or Toronto, or Montreal, or New York, or Chicago, or Seattle, or Madrid, or Lisbon, or etc etc.

    Current score: 0
  11. 11
    patriotz Says:
    Exactly. Like foreigners don’t buy anywhere else in the world? This is just part of Vancouver’s “best place on earth” conceit. It’s the locals who are driving up prices, just like in 1980.

    As for Calgary:

    1. Everyone knows people only live in Calgary for the jobs, so the non-quantitative arguments for high RE prices don’t have the following that they do in Vancouver.

    2. The big runup in oil prices started in 2004. Fundamentals were part of the housing runup. There really was a big influx of people into Alberta and an increase in incomes and rents. But the price increase started outrunning the fundamentals - i.e. a bubble.

    3. High elasticity of supply. Unlimited amount of land for development at low marginal cost. And people know this. Nobody believes “we’re running out of land”.

    Current score: 0
  12. 12
    Drachen Says:
    Why here and not Calgary? Easy, 3 letters.

    P

    o

    t

    Everyone is so stoned all the time they can’t think straight.

    Well maybe not, but it makes more sense than some of the crap I hear.

    Current score: 0
  13. 13
    Strataman Says:
    Comment by patriotz
    “Exactly. Like foreigners don’t buy anywhere else in the world? This is just part of Vancouver’s “best place on earth” conceit. It’s the locals who are driving up prices, just like in 1980.” Get a life you guys read before you yap I said foreigners don’t buy in Calgary as they don’t buy in Detroit as they don’t buy in Chicago. Do I mean a few individuals? No I mean where their is a sizeable percentage of foreign non resident owners. Actually tuk toe yuk tuc has far more foreign investors than Vancouver, New York, Paris, and Los Angeles combined, one out of the three residents is foreign! :-) Thats 30% so me don’t wanna hear anymore about foreign investment anywhere in Canada cause it just don’t rate!

    Current score: 0
  14. 14
    Michael Randallbard Says:
    Banks ‘face a further $300bn sub-prime hit’
    By Philip Aldrick
    Last Updated: 11:03am GMT 25/01/2008

    The world’s financial institutions will have to write down a further $300bn (£152bn) of US sub-prime losses before the crisis is over, according to a study by consulting firm Oliver Wyman.

    “We expect a stormy 2008,” Oliver Wyman said in its State of the Financial Services Industry report.

    “While governments, central banks and regulators scramble to address the aftermath of the sub-prime fallout, several other crises are mounting.”

    Tumbling property prices - especially in the UK and Spain - a weakening dollar, a possible collapse in commodity prices, and a fall in Chinese and Indian stocks will “disrupt” the global economy, the report claimed.

    Banks are already coming off one of the worst trading periods in memory, with shares across the industry plummeting 40pc in the past six months.

    Oliver Wyman has estimated that financial services companies have already taken a $300bn hit on their sub-prime exposure.

    Current score: 0
  15. 15
    krrish1 Says:
    Swirlyman,

    I will be continue login to your network for spicy and krispy news.

    The best thing in the this friday free for all is we have “lots of link here to support the future growth while otherside is big messy ground for trouble shooting”.

    No where to run because there is nothing to replace our own city the worlds best.

    *Investor from with in provinces of Canada,America and Overseas are buying in Vancouver.*There is no mortgage problem here as *real estate is poised to *virtually never go down.*Consistently ranked in the top cities of the world.*Future olympics city,Very limited *’land mass’everyone have desire to live here and watch rain in *’High Defination’ on *I-MAX original screen.*No down turn in site for decades to come.Vancouver B.C with *more slot to go UP in the *BEST PLACE ON EARTH*. http://www.bc150.gov.bc.ca

    Current score: 0
  16. 16
    Anonymous Says:
    Congratulations all you politicians for having assisted in achieving “Record Unaffordability” - yeap those Olympics sure were a great idea. I suppose you are all slapping each other on the back like corporate execs who have just driven their stock to record valuations.

    Yeah, lots of entrepreners are going to come here during the Olympics and want to set up their new buisness here because of the beauty of the place. However, they will never be able to attract the young talent they require to a city with “record unaffordibility” - too bad.

    Current score: 0
  17. 17
    Anonymous Says:
    Here’s a new word for your extremely limited vocabulary: “C-Y-C-L-I-C-A-L” , as in, the Real estate market is “cyclical”

    Current score: 0
  18. 18
    blueskies Says:
    lots of link here to support the future growth

    yeah satv/k
    growth:
    meth labs
    grow ops
    foreclosures
    inane comments in the blogoshere

    keep it up buddy!

    Current score: 0
  19. 19
    Anonymous Says:
    My evening prayer…

    Oh lord, please keep Vancouver RE appreciating at least 5% per year.

    If you do not, all my friends with negative cash flow condos will realize no good investment.

    This will much increase supply on the market, and what little economics I understand, I think prices may no longer go up, and - heaven forbid - may even come down!

    Please make market ignore fact of “Record Unaffordibility”. If necessary, please make BoC lower rates for ever to keep party going - negative interest rates if necessary - people would really enjoy

    Thank you lord.

    Current score: 0
  20. 20
    Anonymous Says:
    Meant to say this was Krrish’s prayer

    Current score: 0
  21. 21
    btk Says:
    Krissh, considering you ran, not walked, away from yesterdays topic claiming to be out of time and not answering any of the questions ,that’d been presented, what are you thinking pulling the same crap in a new thread?

    Current score: 0
  22. 22
    Michael Randallbard Says:
  23. 23
    krrish1 Says:
    Btk,
    No,I think I did all of them as you have mention this ‘RYVC’that was effected by recesion so I have already answer on recession which is insurance etc.and just one part perticular hit does not mean you can stop the wheel of confidence while other parts are working properly.

    if you need an answer to specific point just put question only do not include comment otherwise response consume too much time no body can right a book in thread but yes if you are not satisfy with answer you have to explain that from your point of view oneway is not good then we can fight into right direction.sorry again outatime……might be able to answer tomo…

    btw
    Blueskies there is big support to keep it going so I will.
    Generic poster,
    Good prayer loving it
    Generic Poster 2,you say’
    Yeah, lots of entrepreners are going to come here during the Olympics and want to set up their new buisness here because of the beauty of the place. However, they will never be able to attract the young talent they require to a city with “record unaffordibility” - too bad.”

    Me:Why do you let them buy before you? I am almost in same shoes as yours but we can not change data point of view thanks.

    Strataman,
    Fear after fear after fear damn it,If you go to hospital with fear they might going to refuse to take you in because doctors don’t have cure for fear,I think i have to appoint some scientist for you.

    Insurance premium:first of all that help you to pay your mortgage and other expenses.
    From your premium logic you are talking about same theory of demand and supply which help increase the price of home so same thing over and over sorry if I miss something have a great dinner.

    Current score: 0
  24. 24
    blueskies Says:
    same theory of demand and supply which help increase the price

    thus increased supply will increase demand
    now why didn’t I see that?

    Current score: 0
  25. 25
    Strataman Says:
    krriish “From your premium logic you are talking about same theory of demand and supply which help increase the price of home so same thing over and over sorry if I miss something have a great dinner.” Yeh you missed something for instance you used to be able to get hurricane insurance in Florida until too many used it. Insurance companies do not like claims, for instance stratas that insure condos in Vancouver are finding their insurance cost doubling every year big bucks, because they are making claims. Example of premium increase, one 120 unit strata new building 3 years old has seen insurance premiums increase from $18,000 / amnnum to 83,000 / annum, with deductible rising from $9000 per claim to $30,000 per claim. Result is strata is raising maintenance fees by avg of 9% a year. Get it?

    Current score: 0
  26. 26
    krrish1 Says:
    Example of premium increase, one 120 unit strata new building 3 years old has seen insurance premiums increase from $18,000 / amnnum to 83,000 / annum, with deductible rising from $9000 per claim to $30,000 per claim. Result is strata is raising maintenance fees by avg of 9% a year. Get it?

    Strataman,
    Actually you have put the PUCK on position where I just need to scoop my stick to put it in defenseless goal.

    18-83 in 3year yeah what about the cost change of parcel,envelop in three year? and cost change of labour and construction matterial?. so you are looking at the increase/is legitimate.

    If you buy Canadian or American car insurance is cheap than buying a Japanese because those are made with expensive matterial and there is import duties.

    I mean to say matterial cost,construction cost and import duties play vital role.Three year back insurance company was agree to fix your building at the cost of 18000 a premium which suit their marketing strategy what would have cost them than to fix your building. this time the premium of 83000 will be charged because the cost of relevent things have been changed in three year.

    I know things are getting expensive that way what those are legitmate and I have score a GOAL! here still you can write a feed back.

    Current score: 0
  27. 27
    Drachen Says:
    Wow, Krrish, are you actually trying to say that there has been 460% inflation in 3 years?

    Funny but I didn’t notice bread at $20 last time I was at the grocery store.

    Even *IF* your hypothesis were correct it would totally undercut everything you’ve been saying about housing because in your bizarro world housing would not be keeping pace with inflation.

    In summation, foot fungus knows more about financial matters than you do.

    Current score: 0
  28. 28
    Strataman Says:
    “I know things are getting expensive that way what those are legitmate and I have score a GOAL! here still you can write a feed back.” I will find you the perfect car from a driver thats had lots of accidents and will be able to prove he pays 500% insurance. That way krrish you will have the most expensive valuable car in Vancouver! :-) Now I am going to talk to my dog for awhile I need to know that ever living thing is smarter then you.After the dog then maybe an earthworm. That way I know evolution had nothing to do with your creation! :-)
    Current score: 0
  29. 29
    krrish1 Says:
    Funny but I didn’t notice bread at $20 last time I was at the grocery store.

    Because store owner pay from their pocket to bring you in store.If all people replace their breakfast,lunch and dinners then for sure grocery chain can smell what drachen is cooking so bread could go up to $30 instead of $20.

    Current score: 0
  30. 30
    krrish1 Says:
    Strataman,
    If some one don’t pay you for your service you provide through your carring cost your bussiness will be #### very simple…….

    Current score: 0
  31. 31
    Mold City Says:
    So the median house price averaged across the entire US dropped for the whole year, likely the first time thats happened since the great depression. Thats amazing. How much longer are prices going to drop? It seems the consensus is that they’re a way off from the bottom of the market. I wonder how long Vancouver prices will fall for once they start to go?

    Current score: 0
  32. 32
    Mold City Says:
    Why do you guys debate with someone who can’t construct a logical thought, let alone a logical sentence?

    Current score: 0
  33. 33
    zeema Says:
    Interesting story patiently waiting linked to - Funny how everything that CMHC has done to ‘improve’ affordability - zero down, 40 year mortgages, etc - has just made it worse, encouraging speculation and putting a lot of suckers buyers at risk of default or foreclosure in the event of a market down turn.

    Of course they wont be held accountable because ‘no one could see it coming’.

    Current score: 0
  34. 34
    zeema Says:
    Since this is a open topic thread I’d just like to add: Nice blog! I’ve lurked for a while, thought I’d join in. Good to know I’m not the only one who thinks buyers in Vancouver have gone mad.

    Current score: 0
  35. 35
    Re-diculous Says:
    out for breakfast this morning and over heard a bit of conversation at the table beside me which included “….and my real estate agent said I’d be able to flip it for…..” which goes to show that Krrrsh is still not the only moron out there. Not only did this guy still believe that we are at the flipping stage of the market cycle, he seemed to have trusted what his real estate agent told him.

    Current score: 0
  36. 36
    prairiedog Says:
    “Why do you guys debate with someone who can’t construct a logical thought, let alone a logical sentence?”

    I’ll second that. I hate to resort to the ad hominem passive-aggressive attack, but if you ignore him, maybe he’ll just go away.

    Current score: 0
  37. 37
    Patiently Waiting Says:
    zeema,

    I had my WTF moment about two years ago (when I noticed known leaky condos selling like hotcakes). Since then, I’ve gone from being angry to becoming amazed. Its time to take the popcorn out of the microwave, grab a few handfuls, and watch the disaster unfold. If you want a glimpse of our future, check out http://thehousingbubbleblog.com

    Current score: 0
  38. 38
    Anonymous Says:
    Re-diculous

    If I were not the kind of person to go out and look at what’s happening in other places and listened only to the local MSM I’d be thinking that get in while you still can would be true.

    The fact is that the local market has continued to rise despite what the bears believe it should do. Cranes fill the sky, places keep selling out and were having our big debutant ball in just a few years.

    You hear of people making more money selling one property than you could save in years and years of prudent saving and the Television is full of make over home/flipping shows. It adds up to an ambience of a market that can only go up and that real estate is the easy way for the average person to accumulate wealth.

    In a book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb there is a graph of a turkeys life that grows in a linear fashion as the bird ages right up till thanksgiving where it drops to 0. The day before thanksgiving one would expect that the next days growth will be consistant with the past……. but it’s not.

    Current score: 0
  39. 39
    Re-diculous Says:
    Thanks for that. About half way down the first article -The Party’s kinda over in California- it mentioned that foreigners, including Canadians, are scouring the San Francisco market for bargains - which makes sense. What I wonder is when is the “SMART” speculative RE-investor going to cash out of “over-priced, record-unaffordable” Vancouver and put his money into more reasonably valued markets? Surely they wouldn’t be “SMART” to all wait till the eve of the winter party in 2010?

    Current score: 0
  40. 40
    Dosh Says:
    Why all the recent facsination with California? Just because prices go down somewhere else doesn’t mean it will happen here. Sorry to tell you, but this aint California and no one would mistake it for California. We don’t have the gang crime, traffic problems and wildfires that they always seem to have. Our economy is strong and we’ve got lots of demand.

    Current score: 0
  41. 41
    Anonymous Says:
    Oh poor Dosh….there’s a concept, kind of revolutionary, and it goes something like this: “Buy low, sell high”. The fasination with California is that from a RE -investor perspective, Vancouver is over-valued, and California is becoming better value with time.

    Current score: 0
  42. 42
    blueskies Says:
    we’ve got lots of demand.

    speculator demand can disappear overnight
    some buildings are 50% speculators

    whom will they flip to?

    Current score: 0
  43. 43
    Limey Says:
    “We don’t have the gang crime, traffic problems and wildfires that they always seem to have. Our economy is strong and we’ve got lots of demand.”

    No, you have 27/7 rain over winter, chronic house and car break-in’s, and lame wages compared to down south. Your economy leans very heavily on exports to the US and the construction industry.

    Like it or not, you will be brought down by the US (all of us will). Canada’s always late to the party, but that train’s a comin’.

    Current score: 0
  44. 44
    sidelines Says:
    Dosh: “Why all the recent facsination with California? Just because prices go down somewhere else doesn’t mean it will happen here. Sorry to tell you, but this aint California and no one would mistake it for California. We don’t have the gang crime, traffic problems and wildfires that they always seem to have. Our economy is strong and we’ve got lots of demand”

    Let me paraphrase and extrapolate, if I may: Crime, traffic congestion and wildfires didn’t prevent huge RE price increases in California. Somehow, they can help explain why prices eventually were able to fall, however. Furthermore, since traffic here’s a breeze, we have no gangs, and the weather’s great, we have nothing to worry about. Finally, there’s no need to even consider things like the quality of demand here or what much of our economy is based on.

    Did I get that right?

    Current score: 0
  45. 45
    patriotz Says:
    US house prices will probably not bottom before 2012.

    Given BC’s dependence on US consumer spending and housebuilding, BC house prices will not start any recovery before US house prices do.

    Current score: 0
  46. 46
    Drachen Says:
    Dosh:

    “Just because prices go down somewhere else doesn’t mean it will happen here.”

    Not ’somewhere’ else. EVERYWHERE else.

    Current score: 0
  47. 47
    jadeeast Says:
    “Look at me: If I could buy a first home, you can, too”

    http://tinyurl.com/28f9sl

    Once again a serious question of affordability get played as “too high” expectations on the part of prospective buyers with another non bias opinion in the MSM.

    Current score: 0
  48. 48
    Strataman Says:
    prairedog “but if you ignore him, maybe he’ll just go away.” Maybe but have you ever been around horseflies? :-) But your right I gave the same advice to scullboy! :-)
    Current score: 0
  49. 49
    Michael Randallbard Says:
  50. 50
    scullboy Says:
    I skipped to the end of the article to discover this about the author:

    Peter Simpson is chief executive officer of the Greater Vancouver Home Builders’ Association

    I think that’s all anyone needs to know.

    Current score: 0
  51. 51
    Drachen Says:
    Jadeeast:

    He’s not even a reporter. It is so disappointing to me that newspapers, even ones so low class as the Sun sell out like that. I guess if you spend more than a certain dollar figure you’re entitled to write your own self serving crap and package it up as if it’s unbiased…

    Current score: 0
  52. 52
    solipsist Says:
    I skipped to the end of the article to discover this about the author:

    Peter Simpson is chief executive officer of the Greater Vancouver Home Builders’ Association

    scullboy - that made me snort like nothing has for a while. Maybe it was the Rigamarole Red.

    Current score: 0
  53. 53
    Michael Randallbard Says:
    THE TRUTH IS OUT THERE !!

    Current score: 0
  54. 54
    blueskies Says:
    yeah if you play with the troll your hands will get all icky and goopy…..

    Current score: 0
  55. 55
    Snark Says:
    Jadeeast, good find but that article/sales pitch was an irritating read. I wonder how it would have changed had he bought his first house at the early eighties peak right before the crash?

    Current score: 0
  56. 56
    Snark Says:
    And why the hell are the newspapers running sales pitches to ‘just buy’ written by builders. Bunch of greedy f**ks, I feel sorry for first time buyers today.

    Current score: 0
  57. 57
    Snark Says:
    Raandalblog- $6250 an ounce? Oh yes, most definately. In the year 2525.

    Current score: 0
  58. 58
    blueskies Says:
    MR:
    yet another drive by cut and paste gold bug pump?!

    your credibility is smaller than this period.

    Current score: 0
  59. 59
    Snark Says:
    Hey raaaaaaaaandle. Did you know the moon is made of solid gold? And moon-gold is worth 8 bazillion earth dollars per gram! You should go there and check it out! Next year it will be worth 200 trizillion earth dollars per imaginary moon unit! Thats an infinate amount of appreciation in just one year! Buy now! Buy High! (are you high?)

    Current score: 0
  60. 60
    Snark Says:
    So they’re predicting affordabilty will improve in the vancouver housing market in 2008? Great! I guess its either that or it gets worse. 50/50 chance of being right!

    Current score: 0

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