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predictions on prices after the olympics

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How much will a house or condo in Vancouver cost after the winter Olympics? Will prices crash or increase forever? Who knows. I’m not going to predict where Vancouver real estate prices will go in the next few years, but I did find some interesting info about one prior host city.

Apparently Salt Lake City Utah is a tremendous ground floor investment opportunity, currently undervalued compared to other US real estate. You may want to cash in on the ‘Olympic effect’ and the great exchange rate by buying property there now. According to this article in the Salt Lake Tribune (pdf) their housing market had a post games slump, but in 2006 they started to see price appreciation again.

Four years after the slopes around Park City attracted international attention for hosting many of Salt Lake City’s Olympic events, the area has shaken off the financial curse that has often hit host cities following the Games and is undergoing a real-estate boom.

So why won’t I predict where Vancouver prices are going and when? Because its too tough to get the timing right, and sometimes you get the timing dead wrong. Then you get quotes like this one from Bruce Benham, Chief Operating Officer of RE/MAX international posted on realestatevancouver2010.com:

We’re all aware of the dramatic headlines proclaiming the inevitable “housing bubble” that will reportedly cripple the real estate industry, and the entire U.S. economy, when it eventually bursts. But you know better. And I hope your clients do too.

That article was from july 29th, 2005. Anyone know how their market has done since then? hint: not great.

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Marcie

I just want to say that whether property prices go up or down post or pre-Olympics there is nowhere in any ski resort in Europe you can buy a ski-in/ski-out 1 bedroom condo in world class resort for $500,000 cdn (245,000 sterling or 309,000 Euro's)

If you find one please email me the link and I will gladly snatch it up!

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Locals Only

Vancouver is one of the most beautiful and liveable cities in the world however a continual escalation in prices beyond 2008 cannot continue for a number of reasons… * Who are you selling to? The number of new buyers entering the market at high prices is diminishing. * Calgary has more offices than Vancouver. Vancouver lost many head/regional offices in the 90's and has yet to recover. This translates into average paying jobs – not high income positions. * We are all connected. The world is teetering on a slowdown. Vancouver is not an island. * It doesn't make sense for older Canadians. Retirees love the West Coast, but cannot afford high prices. * Yanks staying home. Rise in USD translates into fewer Americans buying in Vancouver (Coal Harbour) * Our prices are ridiculous. Quality areas will always drive quality… Read more »

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Park City Real Estat

Here's some more details about what really happened to the real estate market in Park City, Utah leading up to and after the Olympic Games in 2002…

Builders and speculators tipped the supply/demand balance in the direction of too much inventory, which hurt the markets in the short term. It took until about 2 years after the games for that excess inventory of properties to be absorbed.

Overall gross sales volume in Park City was relatively flat at about $700 million from 2002-2004. Then, in 2005-2006, volume pushed the $2 billion mark.

As real estate markets around the USA are suffering, the Park City and Deer Valley real estate markets have remained stable, with fewer units being sold, but for higher average prices.

We wish you a similar period of success!

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skullboy

Dosh, I'd like to ask you a question: Have you ever lived in any Canadian city east of Vancouver? I'm guessing the answer to that is "no". The reason you would sell before the Olympics rather then after is that you believed *everyone* was going to sell afterwards. You'd want to sell just before what you believed was the top of the market. At this point, why would you buy in Canada? You could just a much nicer place in the Northwestern US for about half the price. So far you've been right, and that's lovely. There's something touchingly naive about Vancouverites. They've managed to convince themselves the price of real estate here is worth what they've paid. I'm sorry, but it isn't. The rest of the country laughs when they hear about how expensive real estate is. Nobody in… Read more »

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richard

"richard, why would you sell before the olympics if prices werent going to drop until after?"

well, makes sense to sell BEFORE the drop, doesn't it?

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Anonymous

duped

But i wouldn't worry too much if i were them. After all, since re always goes UP UP UP, their parking lots and storage lockers will be worth millions soon enough.

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aleks

"Let’s not confuse the lifestyle of a millionaire with having assets over a million. It is the former most people desire but can’t have."

It's the desire for the former than that prevents people from achieving either.

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dosh

scullboy, as I've pointed out before this is Canada, not the US. The market down there can do whatever it wants, this is a different country. So far I've been right, what about you?

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dosh

richard, why would you sell before the olympics if prices werent going to drop until after? And thats with the assumption that they will, I don't personally believe this. I think, as most people do that the games will make our prices go higher.

blueskies, as your name suggests we don't always have bad weather here, sometimes we get beautiful sunny days, even in February.

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Anonymous

Step away from the kool-aid…

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richard

"The idea that prices in Vancouver could drop before the olympics is absurd"

Well, what if a bunch of owners agreed with you and decided prices would drop after the olympics? Wouldn't they all try to sell before? That would be funny.

How did Salt Lake do just before the olympics, anyway (i don't really know, i'm just asking)?

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blueskies

re: the olympics

so bus loads and plane loads of tourists snapping up over priced RE… i don't think so

february can be a bleak month in Vancouver, not conducive to RE shopping.

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skullboy

If by "returns" you mean "Prices crashing back down to earth" then you are correct…. they will be returning very shortly. Basically what you're saying is that anyone buying now is speculating. And seriously, who would be stupid enough to speculate in this market? You'd actually have to believe that prices can go even higher is the face of news headlines like these (which are the top three headlines currently running at CBC.CA Market gloom shows no sign of lifting Bush and Bernanke back stimulus package for battered U.S. economy U.S. housing starts post biggest drop in 27 years I mean c'mon buddy. Seriously. The US economy is now in a total freefall. do you REALLY believe the expectation of sky high prices due to the Olympics will sustain the market for the next 2 years? Wow. Just…. wow. And… Read more »

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dosh

The idea that prices in Vancouver could drop before the olympics is absurd. The reason prices are going up is because the games will be an advertisement for this city going around the world. It may not be 'ground floor' anymore, but anyone getting into the market now is likely to see very good returns.

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skullboy

Jeeves, I think we're already there…..

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blueskies

funny sh!t…

can't wait for the friday free for all

satv i envy you… the only person i know that can turn a keyboard into a WMD … 🙂

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skullboy

I think sheepless' point is many wealthy people get that way by pinching pennies.

I cna vouch for that. My parents are wealthy, and I think part of it is because frankly my dad's pretty cheap.

Well…. really cheap.

Well… really, really REALLY cheap. 🙂

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Patriotz

You're right it's not a consumption subsidy in the sense of the renter paying less than market price.

But it's a capital subsidy because the investors are providing capital at an uncompetitive rate of return. It's much the same as if the government provided financing for rentals at 3% or whatever, which everyone would consider a subsidy. And the end result is that the market rent is depressed below the value it would be if the capital were earning a competitive return.

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skullboy

I'll second that WTF…..

The ads on Craigs list are for condos people are renting out, not for apartments. Good God man, is there ANY data point you won't try to interpret as bullish news?

I'm trying to figure out what the hell you're talking about in that last post. There's an apartment called the White House on Comox and Chilco (I know becuase I live nearby). YOu're going to have to be a little more clear, dude….

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Freako

most self-made millionaires work full-time, shop in discount stores and clip coupons. Thats why they’re millionaires.

Then what is the point of being a millionaire? Drooling over bank statements over a hearty KD dinner?

Let's not confuse the lifestyle of a millionaire with having assets over a million. It is the former most people desire but can't have.

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Digi

b>"The growth in new rental starts is at an historic low," Hogg said, noting that rental units accounted for less than nine per cent of housing units completed in large cities between 2001 and 2006.

Well yeah, why would you go through the hassle of building and maintaining rental units when suckers buyers will jump at the chance to pay you more AND take over the hassle of management for their 'negative cash-flow investment'?

The interesting thing about rental stats is that they don't include individual owners renting out their condos or suites in their houses. How many of these do we have? I wish there was a stat for that.

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jeeves

I love how they need a study to tell them this. Why is it that none of these studies address the long term ramifications of this situation? Either prices drop, incomes and rents go way up, or we enter a new feudal age where the offspring of the middle class become poor servants of a small group of the extremely wealthy.

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jeeves

thanks for the clarification, but are they really subsidizing renters? Unless the renter is paying less than market rent than the owners not subsidizing the renter, they're just overpaying for the apartment.

I agree that people eager to overpay for a product will temporarily drive up the supply of that product, but thats different than a subsidy.

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jeeves

most self-made millionaires work full-time, shop in discount stores and clip coupons. Thats why they're millionaires.

Check out the 'secrets of the self made millionaires'.

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krriish1

"You know what’s coming, don’t you? C’mon admit it…."

Sofia,

That's what i was writing in my comment told ya, what's Up and Coming.

"the number of apartments for rent on Craigslist has increased by orders or magnitude"

That could be sign of how many people have bought a place for them self.

Anyway Sofia,This chilco,white house,pendral,Comox,B-ave,and park does not help there should be dress-code and time i.e.thursday 930-10.30 am…least for 150 second.would you like to do it?….

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