predictions on prices after the olympics
How much will a house or condo in Vancouver cost after the winter Olympics? Will prices crash or increase forever? Who knows. I’m not going to predict where Vancouver real estate prices will go in the next few years, but I did find some interesting info about one prior host city.
Apparently Salt Lake City Utah is a tremendous ground floor investment opportunity, currently undervalued compared to other US real estate. You may want to cash in on the ‘Olympic effect’ and the great exchange rate by buying property there now. According to this article in the Salt Lake Tribune (pdf) their housing market had a post games slump, but in 2006 they started to see price appreciation again.
Four years after the slopes around Park City attracted international attention for hosting many of Salt Lake City’s Olympic events, the area has shaken off the financial curse that has often hit host cities following the Games and is undergoing a real-estate boom.
So why won’t I predict where Vancouver prices are going and when? Because its too tough to get the timing right, and sometimes you get the timing dead wrong. Then you get quotes like this one from Bruce Benham, Chief Operating Officer of RE/MAX international posted on realestatevancouver2010.com:
We’re all aware of the dramatic headlines proclaiming the inevitable “housing bubble” that will reportedly cripple the real estate industry, and the entire U.S. economy, when it eventually bursts. But you know better. And I hope your clients do too.
That article was from july 29th, 2005. Anyone know how their market has done since then? hint: not great.
March 29th, 2008 at 5:59 pm
I just want to say that whether property prices go up or down post or pre-Olympics there is nowhere in any ski resort in Europe you can buy a ski-in/ski-out 1 bedroom condo in world class resort for $500,000 cdn (245,000 sterling or 309,000 Euro's)
If you find one please email me the link and I will gladly snatch it up!
January 27th, 2008 at 9:08 pm
Vancouver is one of the most beautiful and liveable cities in the world however a continual escalation in prices beyond 2008 cannot continue for a number of reasons…
* Who are you selling to? The number of new buyers entering the market at high prices is diminishing.
* Calgary has more offices than Vancouver. Vancouver lost many head/regional offices in the 90's and has yet to recover. This translates into average paying jobs – not high income positions.
* We are all connected. The world is teetering on a slowdown. Vancouver is not an island.
* It doesn't make sense for older Canadians. Retirees love the West Coast, but cannot afford high prices.
* Yanks staying home. Rise in USD translates into fewer Americans buying in Vancouver (Coal Harbour)
* Our prices are ridiculous. Quality areas will always drive quality prices. But a home on The Golden Mile – Point Grey Road falling 40% from $8 million to $5 million is still $5 million.
* Overstating the obvious. The Olympics are only 16 days.
January 25th, 2008 at 7:00 pm
Here's some more details about what really happened to the real estate market in Park City, Utah leading up to and after the Olympic Games in 2002…
Builders and speculators tipped the supply/demand balance in the direction of too much inventory, which hurt the markets in the short term. It took until about 2 years after the games for that excess inventory of properties to be absorbed.
Overall gross sales volume in Park City was relatively flat at about $700 million from 2002-2004. Then, in 2005-2006, volume pushed the $2 billion mark.
As real estate markets around the USA are suffering, the Park City and Deer Valley real estate markets have remained stable, with fewer units being sold, but for higher average prices.
We wish you a similar period of success!
January 23rd, 2008 at 10:55 pm
Dosh, I'd like to ask you a question:
Have you ever lived in any Canadian city east of Vancouver? I'm guessing the answer to that is "no".
The reason you would sell before the Olympics rather then after is that you believed *everyone* was going to sell afterwards. You'd want to sell just before what you believed was the top of the market.
At this point, why would you buy in Canada? You could just a much nicer place in the Northwestern US for about half the price.
So far you've been right, and that's lovely. There's something touchingly naive about Vancouverites. They've managed to convince themselves the price of real estate here is worth what they've paid.
I'm sorry, but it isn't. The rest of the country laughs when they hear about how expensive real estate is. Nobody in this country is going to move to Van and buy real estate… they think the prices are just nuts.
You can love living in Vancouver without paying a zillion dollars for a home.
Yes, we're a different country. That's great. But how many Canadians are working in jobs tired into the American economy? How many have investments in American companies? Do you *seriously* think that in a situation like this, where 2 economies are so tightly integrated, that Canada can't suffer? if Canadians lose money in the stock market because the American economy tanks, don't you think that will make them think twice about buying a place here?
The whole Olympics thing is kind of interesting. Quick, tell me, how clearly do you remember:
Albertville, France
Torino, Italy
Salt Lake City
I am guessing not at all. Seriously for all the hoopla, you get 2 weeks of free advertising. People seem to forget the world tunes in to watch skiing championships, *not* Stanley Park or the sea wall or whatever.
And even if they say "Gosh honey it's beautiful in Vancouver" do you think they're going to uproot themselves to come live here?
They'd have to go through the immigration process which is hell. They're have to learn a new language in many cases. They'd have to uproot their kids from school. They'd have to find work and honey, there isn't a lot of work to be had here.
And even if they DID want to uproot and move, how many of them have the kind of money needed to buy real estate? Precious few I should think. How many of them could get jobs that pay well enough? It's not like the banks have head offices here.
If that actually happened in Vancouver it would be a first for Olympic cities.
I could certainly see people saying "Wow honey, Vancouver's beautiful. Let's go for a 2 week vacation this summer!" But to pack up your life and move just because a city looks good on TV?
I mean Dosh… honestly… do you believe what you're saying? I admit it, I'm kind of fascinated. You don't seem all that interested in the avalanche of information that indicates the party's over.
The market here hasn't collapsed. many people have a great deal of skin in the game now, so obviously they have an interest in keeping the party going.
The problem is the *world* is running out of money and credit. No doubt there are greater fools out there. The problem is, nobody's going to lend them money for an overpriced condo.
January 23rd, 2008 at 10:55 pm
"richard, why would you sell before the olympics if prices werent going to drop until after?"
well, makes sense to sell BEFORE the drop, doesn't it?
January 23rd, 2008 at 10:54 pm
duped
But i wouldn't worry too much if i were them. After all, since re always goes UP UP UP, their parking lots and storage lockers will be worth millions soon enough.
January 23rd, 2008 at 10:54 pm
"Let’s not confuse the lifestyle of a millionaire with having assets over a million. It is the former most people desire but can’t have."
It's the desire for the former than that prevents people from achieving either.
January 23rd, 2008 at 10:54 pm
scullboy, as I've pointed out before this is Canada, not the US. The market down there can do whatever it wants, this is a different country. So far I've been right, what about you?