The invincible canadian real estate market
The Canadian Real Estate Association is predicting the Canada resale housing market will remain ‘at or near record levels’ this year.
“The statistics again show just how different the housing markets are in Canada and the United States. Canadian realtors know that Canadian mortgage lenders correctly see that home prices will continue rising.”
The association sees three factors that it believes will save Canada’s housing markets from the woes engulfing the sector in the United States: consumer confidence, employment and affordable interest rates.
CREA economist Gregory Klump said the market will pull back from the “breakneck pace” of 2007, but this is still forecast to be the second-busiest year on record in almost all provinces.
Average prices are forecast to continue rising in record territory, but the increase is likely to become slower, to 5.5 per cent nationwide.
“Slower job growth, not massive layoffs, are forecast for Canada in 2008,” Klump said.
What I’d like to know is which parts of canada will rise as forecast? Are there any overpriced Canadian markets that risk a drop in prices or will we see a steady rise across the board?
note: For a comprehensive look at why all might not go perfectly for the Vancouver market check out Mohicans Bubble Uberpost over at Financial Planning and Personal Sanity.
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The Pope Says:
January 23rd, 2008 at 11:15 pm
A hat-tip to reductimat for the link!
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bearette Says:
January 23rd, 2008 at 11:24 pm
CREA economist Gregory Klump said “more crack please.”
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freako Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 12:59 am
Canadian realtors know that Canadian mortgage lenders correctly see that home prices will continue rising.”
Can anybody make sense of this statement?
The association sees three factors that it believes will save Canada’s housing markets from the woes engulfing the sector in the United States: consumer confidence, employment and affordable interest rates.
1. Consumer confidence is basically psychology based on reality.
2. Employment: If the U.S. goes into recession, our employment prosects will worsen.
3. Affordable rates? WTF? Their rates are way lower than ours.
4. Back to consumer confidence again, if employment worsens, so will consumer confidence.
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patriot1 Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 3:24 am
You have to admire the bluster of these guys, if nothing else, in the face of what may well be the worst recession since the end of WWII
What I’d like to know is which parts of canada will rise as forecast?
None, and I will predict right now that every market in Canada will experience nominal declines in 2008. Perhaps not reflected in the average or median for the usual reasons.
This time next year these people will be calling the bottom. You can count on it.
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Clarke Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 7:29 am
The CREA is a lobby group, so any pronouncements they make are intended for the benefit of their membership, and specifically, their membership’s client base. The most negative thing that might emanate from the association is that the market may at some point return to a more balanced state. Once things start crashing, as mentioned, they will repeatedly call the bottom.
What is moderately amusing is that the media tend to take these press releases and repackage them as news…..
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freako Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 7:33 am
What is moderately amusing is that the media tend to take these press releases and repackage them as news…..
Yes that is exactly the problem. Their spin is presented as expert opinion. We have three industries, and they get lions share of media space, the builders, the realtors and CMHC. And look at how much airtime Lereah got in the U.S.
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Anonymous Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 7:40 am
I’m guessing that Fort Nelson isn’t going to be one of the markets seeing and increase this year. They could maybe host an Olympic event though.
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Re-diculous Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 7:44 am
Let’s face it…..what the #$%#@ else are they going to say? The fact that they needed to say anything indictes that they are nervous regarding the shift in consumer psychology currently underway…..besides, they are never held accountable for the crap they pump out.
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Re-diculous Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 8:08 am
BTW…here’s a cut and paste from the UK Housing blog of today…its not just the US that’s in trouble. Perhaps CREA is quite concerned that we are not far behind.
Thursday, 24 January 2008
I almost forgot to mention it; the UK housing market is crashing.
With all this crazy stuff about rogue traders, sub-prime losses and manic interest rate cuts, the UK housing crash has drifted into the background. It is time to bring it out of the shadow; buried beneath today’s shocking financial news, the British Bankers Association issued the latest data on mortgage approvals.
Now what is the right word to describe the latest data? The numbers were miles beyond “bad”. They were well south of “appalling”. In fact, there were found within the vicinity of catastrophic.
December mortgage approvals are down about 38 percent compared to 2006. Moreover, the actual number of approvals were the lowest since records began. Yes, that is right. Let us repeat that; mortgage approvals were the lowest since records began.
Full story at: http://ukhousebubble.blogspot......it-uk.html
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Another Generic Poster Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 8:13 am
Fort Nelson … They could maybe host an Olympic event though.
Well then, prices will skyrocket through the roof! Vancouver’s only got the Olympics and The Mountains and that’s enough to make prices go through the roof. Fort Nelson’s got The Mountains, Beautiful Scenery, Beautiful Lakes, not to mention Bison in Your Back Yard. I predict $850k for a tear-down once the word gets out.
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Anonymous Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 9:27 am
Check out what the NAR down south thinks is the solution to their problems… NAR Dec Report
NAR President Richard Gaylord, a broker with RE/MAX Real Estate Specialists in Long Beach, Calif., said that raising the loan limit on conventional financing is urgently needed. “The most effective way to stimulate housing and minimize the potential for a recession is for lawmakers to raise the limit on conforming mortgages to $625,000, which would open safe and affordable financing to buyers in high-cost areas,” he said. “It is grossly unfair that some Americans do not have access to low-interest rate loans. This would help people as they move away from risky subprime mortgages and high-interest rate jumbo loans.”
So the cure for people who borrowed more than they can afford is to encourage them to borrow more? Riiiight.
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Mold City Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 9:39 am
Yeah, I’ll just bet that the CREA correctly forecast all previous housing market crashes right? They probably put out a news release in the early eighties warning about the 40% dive house prices in Vancouver were going to suffer.
Actually, has the CREA ever forecast anything other than smooth sailing or price increases? I doubt it. Its offensive that the news outlets pick this stuff up and run it as if it has any merit.
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Ed Bear Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 10:11 am
CBC radio news had a housing “report” yesterday morning, in which the predictions of one person who worked for a “real estate marketing” firm were showcased. Surprisingly enough she felt that Canadian real estate prices were very reasonably and headed nowhere but up.
Naturally since this was a professional news broadcast they also brought in some experts who did not share her views, and contrasted the two in better understand what the realities were.
No, not really. That last part was a lie. They left us with the rosy view of the real estate marketer and didn’t even mention that anyone of note feels any differently.
Heck of a job there, CBC.
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krrish1 Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 10:28 am
Freako says
“Canadian realtors know that Canadian mortgage lenders correctly see that home prices will continue rising.”
Can anybody make sense of this statement?
Freako,Definitley information by communication and data sharing method.
Freako says
“1. Consumer confidence is basically psychology based on reality”.
Freako,Don’t tell that you don’t know what is reality,you shouldn’t have tied your lips on that.
Freako says
4. Back to consumer confidence again, if employment worsens, so will consumer confidence.
Freako,Avoid use of “if” that make us wait for the genuine situation.
For your kind information just one reason does not kill the confidence there is a chain to run all the wheels.
Freako says
“3. Affordable rates? WTF? Their rates are way lower than ours”.
Freako,This sounds to me that you don’t know what is subprime (mess) mortgage.
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scullboy Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 11:05 am
Krrish, I think you’ve missed your calling. You REALLY should write copy for the Canadian Real Estate Association .
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freako Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 11:08 am
Freako,Definitley information by communication and data sharing method.
Freako says
“1. Consumer confidence is basically psychology based on reality”.
Freako,Don’t tell that you don’t know what is reality,you shouldn’t have tied your lips on that.
Freako says
4. Back to consumer confidence again, if employment worsens, so will consumer confidence.
Freako,Avoid use of “if” that make us wait for the genuine situation.
For your kind information just one reason does not kill the confidence there is a chain to run all the wheels.
Freako says
“3. Affordable rates? WTF? Their rates are way lower than ours”.
Can anybody make sense of the above?
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btk Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 11:14 am
Krissh1
There is no way you grew up in Vancouver or you’d remember the asian flu and the leaky condo crisis.
It was only 7 years ago when TD lost money due to the number of foreclosures from people walking away from their condo ownership.
Because of this downturn housing starts dropped, because there is a period of time between approval (of a project) and completion when the demand ticked slightly upward it caused a frenzy.
Krissh1
Who is going to rent the next 10,000 units that’re completing downtown this year?
Will they qualify to pay $1350 per month in rent?
Why would a specuvester want to subsidize someone else’s living expenses to the tune of $2,000 per month?
What capable buyer hasn’t already entered the market?
What rich country hasn’t discovered Vancouver?
Are you presuming your comrades from Poland can afford to move here and pay $1,000 per sq ft?
If yes, why?
Why wouldn’t they go to Hamilton? They have a community there and an opportunity to earn substantially more money.
Krissh1
In case anyone here doubted your stupidity you’ve done a good job of reassuring us all that you are still an incoherent babbling idiot and a sheep who’s going to lose everything.
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exx Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 11:17 am
http://www.monopolyworldvote.c.....ers/rank-1
Vancouver’s on the 2nd page right now, #28 below #25 Toronto. How can we call ourselves a worldclass city if we don’t get added to the board game?
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Cascina Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 11:29 am
SATV
You’re like those little kids who’ve been indoctrinated in the documentary “Jesus Camp” who deny that global warming exists, don’t believe in evolution and think president bush is a good leader.
You’ve been brainwashed!
Did you see the article in Forbes that stated Vancouver had the 6th most overpriced real estate in the world?
At least we’re top ten in something.
28th in Monopoly LOL!!!!
Why don’t you shoot me down with some incoherent, ignorant, uneducated, quasi retarded logic now?????
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krrish1 Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 11:47 am
Comment by btk
“Who is going to rent the next 10,000 units that’re completing downtown this year?”
btk,
First let me bring if here: so if that is not possible then rental units will fall into fundamental crises means more supply less demand from rental people, that way rent can come down but so far looking at the future prospects rents are tend to go up by 2 to 4 percent because of forth coming mob of immi,mig.
Important:future projects does not mean to get release in the market on similar dates.
Cascina,
you should put some question I did not find sufficent ground to respond.
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krrish1 Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 11:52 am
I can knock you down on this
“Did you see the article in Forbes that stated Vancouver had the 6th most overpriced real estate in the world?”
that’s mean we have 4 more slot to go
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btk Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 12:06 pm
The majority of the units, which are completing in the next year and a bit, have been bought by people hoping to flip them for big profits or rent them out while they appreciate at a rate that is enough to cover the massive losses they incur monthly.
If there are 10,00 units and no one to rent them, they cease to be an “investment”
Of course you can attempt to argue that a lot more people are moving here and will buy them, fair enough I don’t care whether the occupants are renters or owners.
The key here is to fill them , or find people willing to pay all the costs associated with owning a vacant “investment” which is losing $3,000 a month in value and costing $3,000 in mortgage and strata.
Immigration is down.
Anecdotally I’m told the Hong Kong investors have been buying in Toronto, not in Vancouver, for some time.
The Koreans are finding L.A. more appealing now since they can buy property for cheaper, the climate is better, and there is a Korean community.
Perhaps there are a few wealthy people moving here, albeit at a 15 year low for immigration, but the majority of those moving here are not in a position to pay $500,000 for a one bedroom apartment.
According to your logic these units will just keep going up.
If this is the case who is going to pay $700,000 to buy a one bedroom?
Why haven’t they already purchased 5 or 6 units in pre sale?
What did you pay for your unit? Do you actually own property? Are you involved with the strata?
Do you know that you can be hit with a special assessment? Do you know that the condo will deteriorate over time? Do you know how much you have to pay a realtor to sell your property? Are you aware that you will be required to pay capital gains taxes on revenue property?
Do you know what a rental yield is?
Do you know that there are hi-rises downtown that are starting to leak?
Do you know who has to pay when it leaks?
The person who has to pay for the leaking condo is the same brilliant investors who’s “investment” is losing $3,000 a month and who’s tenant is paying 1/3 of the carrying cost (losing $2,000 in cash and $3,000 on paper is an enviable position to be in for a world class investor, I guess).
Meanwhile if you had $500,000 at ING you could rent the same unit with the interest and be poised to buy when the market crashes. The sheep will line up to sell as fast as they lined up to buy, this happened ten years ago! You weren’t here so you missed it.
Some of us are not real estate experts like yourself but grew up with parents who’s livelihoods were dependant on housing starts, thus making them more aware of what’s happened historically than others.
You probably don’t remember when you’re parents stopped taking you to the cabin in Alpine at Whistler because they had sold it in a hurry when interest rates hit 18%.
Or when you’re parents had to trade in the bmw 5.33I and get a five year old 1977 diesel orange Rabbit as the family car because mortgage rates hit 24%
Even today they haven’t really recovered, although they didn’t hit bankruptcy like a lot of their friends.
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Mold City Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 12:16 pm
I can knock you down on this
“Did you see the article in Forbes that stated Vancouver had the 6th most overpriced real estate in the world?”
that’s mean we have 4 more slot to go
You’re either an idiot or you’re trolling for reactions, neither is all that admirable position to be in. You do understand that the Forbes measurement of ‘OVERPRICED’ means that related to local incomes and rents the cost to buy is way out of line right? Would moving Vancouver to the MOST OVERPRICED real estate in the world be a desireable goal for you?!?
Just so you know I’m sure we’ve already moved up at least one slot. When that study was done LA was only something like .06% more ‘overpriced’ than Vancouver. Since that time the US dollar has gone down, prices have gone down and vancouver got more expensive. So yes, we are now likely the MOST OVERPRICED REAL ESTATE IN NORTH AMERICA! Congratulations!
Now how many will sell in time and see those gains turn into real money?
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krrish1 Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 12:23 pm
BTK,
I respect your knowledge so I feel bit shy hope you don’t mind.Your argument is bearish thought but sorry to say it does not support the chapter or topic of “Consumer Confidence”.
however your argument is full packed with social issues the pain we suffer through the worse period in our life.
the best answer is we must move forward because homes are basic necessity if they start leaking later on we must fix them.
the new housing law for leaks there is 2-5-10 warranty and if some one buy leaky condo make sure the building is insured rest of balance goes to all owners and fixer also help to increase the price of leaky building with upto date matterial cost.
I would suggest people on the lower end can buy leaky condos there is more profit than the new one.
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krrish1 Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 12:37 pm
Moldcity,
Yes expensive and unaffordable for those who can not afford but not for those who can afford,If my income does not support me to buy a decent house that does not mean my neighbour can not afford.
Congratulation and cheer for Vancouver you can tell your friends worldwide.please spread the word of mouth……
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scullboy Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 12:46 pm
Freako darling,
Making sense of things is sooooo 20th century. The Olympics has changed all that by introducing truthiness to BC RE. Krrish is spreading the essential truth of the ever escalating value of a 500 sf Yaletown condo. Fundamentals, grammar, logic and common sense be damned!
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scullboy Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 12:53 pm
I hadn’t really considered it till just now but the same thing happened to my own parents in the 70s. They gambled on real estate and lost…. it took them almost 20 years to completely recover, and there was a great deal of struggle involved. If it weren’t for some good fortune after 20 years they would still be struggling.
Strange, I hadn’t really considered that in relation to Van RE. I think a lot of young couples (that pair in the 515 SF Yaletown condo come to mind) are about to find out what that’s like…
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scullboy Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 1:07 pm
Krrish,
The problem is that at this point NOBODY CAN AFFORD TO BUY HERE.
That means no new buys.
No new buys means people on the bottom run can no longer sell their place at a profit to buy a bigger one….
and on up the chain.
Got it?
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scullboy Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 1:09 pm
I used to date one of the newscasters from CBC Newsworld.
Trust me if he’s any indicator of the brainpower working there, it’s a safe bet that the CBC just isn’t bright enough to connect the dots.
He is awfully pretty on camea though….
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krrish1 Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 1:13 pm
Sofia,
No I did not get you, I suppose to be there at 8 with starbucks coffee but I can not afford that timing,I can only be there at 930 on thursday morning but than you can’t be there.
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doug r Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 1:32 pm
Prices in San Diego county are down 30%, Orange County is getting down to 2003 prices, SF Bay Area prices are down 11% from last year, Florida, Phoenix, Sacramento and Interior California prices are plummeting, and even Portland and Seattle prices are starting to fall. Not to mention dropping prices in the Fraser Valley.
Even Edmonton and Calgary prices are starting to drop.
But it can’t happen here, right?
It’s different here-”the best place on earth”TM
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exvancouverite Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 1:48 pm
SATV
You’re like those little kids who’ve been indoctrinated in the documentary “Jesus Camp” who deny that global warming exists, don’t believe in evolution and think president bush is a good leader.
You’ve been brainwashed!
Did you see the article in Forbes that stated Vancouver had the 6th most overpriced real estate in the world?
At least we’re top ten in something.
28th in Monopoly LOL!!!!
Why don’t you shoot me down with some incoherent, ignorant, uneducated, quasi retarded logic now?????
Cascina I found your post very uniformed and ignorant. I happen to be a bear but associate all of the above with anyone who disagrees with you is childish at best. And I don’t like your reference to Jesus camp try showing some tolerance to other people. Also I am one who doesn’t believe in global warming. Your post shows you have a disdain for religion yet fail to realize that global warming is nothing other than a new doomsday cult. I care about the environment but not for bogus reasons.
Back to housing. I live in Calgary right now. The market has definately turned here but most sellers and buyers are playing chicken seeing who will blink first. I figure we are a year away from huge declines. I think Vancouver won’t see price drops until 2009 when all the new condos are finished and people rush to cash out before the olympics come.
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exvancouverite Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 1:54 pm
Forgot quotes
“SATV
You’re like those little kids who’ve been indoctrinated in the documentary “Jesus Camp” who deny that global warming exists, don’t believe in evolution and think president bush is a good leader.
You’ve been brainwashed!
Did you see the article in Forbes that stated Vancouver had the 6th most overpriced real estate in the world?
At least we’re top ten in something.
28th in Monopoly LOL!!!!
Why don’t you shoot me down with some incoherent, ignorant, uneducated, quasi retarded logic now?????”
Cascina I found your post very uniformed and ignorant. I happen to be a bear but associate all of the above with anyone who disagrees with you is childish at best. And I don’t like your reference to Jesus camp try showing some tolerance to other people. Also I am one who doesn’t believe in global warming. Your post shows you have a disdain for religion yet fail to realize that global warming is nothing other than a new doomsday cult. I care about the environment but not for bogus reasons.
Back to housing. I live in Calgary right now. The market has definately turned here but most sellers and buyers are playing chicken seeing who will blink first. I figure we are a year away from huge declines. I think Vancouver won’t see price drops until 2009 when all the new condos are finished and people rush to cash out before the olympics come.
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scullboy Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 2:49 pm
Sweet Jesus man,
How do you survive in Vancouver with English skills like that? Just this once I don’t mean to offend but honestly, how do you function in this town?
Do you really not understand what I said, or are you being deliberately obtuse because you can’t answer the point about affordability?
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seasonal affected disorder Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 3:02 pm
Doug R, do you have any links for those numbers? Is Sandiego really down 30%? Is that in US dollars or Canadian?
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Jade Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 3:29 pm
Homes to become more affordable this year: observers
http://www.cbc.ca/consumer/sto.....state.html
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btk Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 3:43 pm
My rant was a bit jumbled but having re read it I think the main ideas came through.
I will try to ask more questions and be less emotional.
There have been crashes in the last 30 years and just because you weren’t aware of them, Krissh, doesn’t mean that they didn’t happen.
It must have been a good feeling to see the prices appreciating since 2002. If you had bought a condo in the mid 90’s you’d have regretted it. Believe it or not there were people walking away from their condos. Fairview units , with views, were going for $250/sq ft four years ago and there were people who thought prices would never come back.
Now there are people who think it will never ever stop going up because a salesman has told them it’s a good investment. Would you buy a car without having it checked out? Probably not. So why take a realtors comments at face value? Or your neighbour down the street who made money off the unit they bought four years ago. Does that automatically mean it’ll keep going up?
Do you comprehend how fast consumer confidence can swing to negative? Were you aware of the tech boom? Did you ever meet anyone who thought they’d be retired by now because their tech stocks would go up 40% a year for life? Doesn’t that sound foolish now?
In high school everyone thought smoking was really cool, does this mean smoking is a good idea? Does a herd mentality justify spending 70% of your income for the next 25 years? Would it hurt to put your ego away for a year and put some money in the bank while renting an identical place? You could even take a nice vacation and see the world with the difference and still have money banked.
It seems as if new buyers are constantly trying to reassure themselves by insisting that property always goes up. This isn’t always true.
“Past performance does not indicate future returns”
“buy low and sell high”
I still cannot figure out what you mean about wise men buying houses at the top of the market. Do you know any wise men who’re out buying houses right now? If yes, where are they buying? What do these wise men do for a living? what are their credentials? What is their annual income? Where did they come from? Are they currently renting? If yes, why did they wait until now to buy?
Are you sure they aren’t people who’ve been scared into believing if they don’t buy now they’ll be priced out forever?
Isn’t this the same mentality that had Californians scrambling to leverage as much as they possibly could in order to buy the biggest house?
Do you read the newspapers or check the newspapers online? Are you aware of the housing crash and worries of a global recession?
Aren’t a lot of the jobs in Vancouver related to building the infrastructure for the Olympics?
Is the federal Government planning to send Vancouver hundreds of millions of dollars when the Olympics are over?
What city will ultimately pay for this infrastructure and the Olympics? How long will it take?
How many $14/Hr casual labour jobs will exist once the boom ends?
I know I’ve asked a lot of questions but you seem to think you have all the answers.
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Drachen Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
btk:
Don’t bother trying to talk to Krrish. This is his fourth handle he’s on here because everyone quickly figures out what a loser he is and just ignores his posts.
He is completely incapable of reason, he mimics the things he hears from RE friendly sources in much the way a parrot would ie. with no grammar, no analysis and essentially a random stream of strange facts, factoids and misrepresentations. Verbal diarrhoea at it’s worst.
He has complete immunity to intelligent thought which would do the worst of religious zealots proud. It’s like he’s wearing Peril sensitive sunglasses but they’re intelligent discourse filtering instead.
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Re-diculous Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 5:57 pm
Drachen, I completely agree, but I’m kind of suspicious that he’s just having a really good time “pulling our chain”. I wouldn’t be surprised if he does not believe the crap he writes – really, how could he? and is probably giggling as he writes it.
Personally, I have decided that I do not respond to people who are either MORONS or simply trying to get a rise out of me.
Too bad, this blogging software does not have the ability to filter certain handles.
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krrish1 Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 6:24 pm
Btk,
First of all if you are renting a place that is how your psychology ordering you to do that,
“There have been crashes in the last 30 years and just because you weren’t aware of them”
I am very well aware of them, however you can see the graph from than and now, means if you can afford monthly payment for term,Inflation will drive the prices up any time in future but the city shouldn’t be a victim of terrorism and natural disaster and should be nice and best on the foreign policy.
“Do you comprehend how fast consumer confidence can swing to negative?”
Homes are basic necessity, some people temporary can cheat with the market people who own this as bussiness purpose but slowly slowly homes get turned over to genuine owners so the percentage of air presser is temp and very less,{can’t go to far}
well when consumer confidence fall that point tiped over to fundamentals then unit must get sold for some prices either up or down but usually what happened people scared to buy them lets say there are only 5-10% fliper or owners who don’t like to hold their units if those unit does not sell that aquire the forth coming appreciation the point where market turn around(can’t go further).
Include you and lots of other here, are all in affordable situation somewhere in Vancouver but most of them have a desire to live on some perticular place. affordability is not a question just the desire is a big question for them.
Wisemen are people who rent to pay the fool for their labour to handel housing sector.
Fools does not like to rent because they like to get pay for their labour.
“tech stocks”
is O.T.
Sofia,
There is no question in your comment but you have mention about a problem ok let me bring your problem here it is you say…..
“The problem is that at this point NOBODY CAN AFFORD TO BUY HERE.”
Sofia there is no data to support your allegation and you have told me once that you are in affordable situation,again your desireble place is expensive but you can afford according to price,income ratio.
“That means no new buys”.
funny you are hiding your self dolly but yeah you don’t like to buy you wisegirl.
“No new buys means people on the bottom run can no longer sell their place at a profit to buy a bigger one….”
That’s not true either, more than 102,000 unit have been sold last year in B.C.
this is just a 24th days of this month and units are getting through for further spin.
“and on up the chain.”
So far r.e wagon is runing properly with strong joint of chain in the wheels.
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patriot1 Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 6:41 pm
It’s all at your fingertips right here:
Professor Piggington
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blueskies Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 7:02 pm
and is probably giggling as he writes it.
i detect a thin insistent thread of fear in
the postings… a stream of consciousness primal scream. the market beast is slowly catching up, he can sense the hot breath of utter failure a palpable sense of doom…
the typing skills are akin to hyperventilation.
folks… he is truly scared shitless!
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Drachen Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 7:08 pm
I think I understand at least 1 leg of Krrish’s problem. I wonder how common this thought is.
He seems to believe that in order for house prices to drop by say 50% that ALL houses have to drop that amount in their owner’s minds. When in reality all that’s required for prices to drop that much could be as few as 2-3% of the total number of houses selling at those prices because in reality it’s only the ones that sell that determine the market numbers for ALL of the houses.
It’s extraordinarily convoluted logic but that seems to be what he believes.
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Drachen Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 7:09 pm
Oh and btw, I don’t think he’s faking it. I’ve seen enough trolls in my day to know. If he were just a troll he’d have gotten bored of this by now, trolls by their nature have a very short span for these things.
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krrish1 Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 7:14 pm
blueskies,
Next post should be strataman to make a team of losers!Right?.
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krrish1 Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 7:23 pm
Drachan,
on troll you are right! when there is nothing for me, I won’t pick up to much that make us quite and time saving from the free assisting service [no money to make].
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blueskies Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 7:25 pm
Next post should be strataman to make a team of losers!Right?.
i would suggest he is a realtor selling to specific ethnic community where referrals and word of mouth are critical. possibly even the manager in a multi broker office.
the news coming in is all bad. everything hinges on consumer confidence and he sees this waning
a little too strident to be just “dicking” around……
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crabman Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 7:33 pm
You’re either an idiot or you’re trolling for reactions
I cast my vote for ‘idiot’.
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crabman Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 7:43 pm
I think our good friend has blown a fuse….
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Strataman Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 8:16 pm
blueskies “i would suggest he is a realtor selling to specific ethnic community where referrals and word of mouth are critical. possibly even the manager in a multi broker office.” Me??
I’m a building systems consultant, a technical guy, electro-mechanical engineer. 
I just associate with a whole lot of strata members and Property Managers thru my business so gain some inside perspective! I also see the guts of many many buildings and see a lot of sh**t buyers never know (till they call me)! 
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blueskies Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 8:18 pm
sorry i meant that satv was a scared realtor
your posts are lucid informative and pleasingly bearish
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Strataman Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 8:24 pm
whew!! you scared the crap outa me mistaken for a realitor was distressing as hell!
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blueskies Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 8:27 pm
sorry!
equating you with Aaron was an egregious error on my part….
a coupla beers later!
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blueskies Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 8:28 pm
i would suggest satv/krrrish is a realtor selling to specific ethnic community where referrals and word of mouth are critical. possibly even the manager in a multi broker office.
the news coming in is all bad. everything hinges on consumer confidence and he sees this waning
a little too strident to be just “dicking” around……
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Strataman Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 8:45 pm
blueskies: “i would suggest satv/krrrish is a realtor selling to specific ethnic community” Possibly but my guess is an amateur investor with possibly 2 or three places, all his eggs in one basket, highly leaveraged and owns nothing as in clear title, (which mr krrrsish I happen to have in a recreational property and 3 bedroom cabin, small boat, great shop(place where you work krrrsh not a mall) and have had for 23 years now, and where I will retire debt and tax free). krrrssish strikes me as a barely educated (probably paid for it and his drivers license through bribes) type! And he’s probably in total panick mode if he can’t make 25% each year to break even!
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blueskies Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 9:12 pm
total panick mode if he can’t make 25% each year to break even!
exactly! he sees it coming!
the market is a remorseless beast bearing no animosity to any given individual.
but leveraged assets have a way of biting you in the ass at the most inopportune moment.
iliquidity is a bitch!
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Michael Randallbard Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 9:24 pm
Anybody hear that caller on the Bill Good show on CKNW this morning tear a strip off Cameron Muir? The caller questioned why we need growth at all resulting in all the extra expense that goes with it. Bill said ‘oh then you would be in favor of closing the door” to which the caller said “yes, it has to end somewhere (unbridled uncontrolled growth) and now is the time to do it. He argued that all of the problems that we have here weren’t here 20 years ago and this proves its overpopulation that is ruining the quality of life in Vancouver and he challenged Bill to have a poll of the area residents who are stuck in traffic day to day whose lifestyle is suffering because of the few who are profiting from this growth and accused Muir of being one of them. The caller contended that Vancouver is now a lost paradise. While he sounded mildly agitated or irritated at Muir at least he was able to express what a lot of people are thinking. Muir was most unhappy with the accusation that somehow he is one that somehow profits from the destruction of our once great city because of too much growth in population.
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blueskies Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 9:31 pm
MR
check out “The Long Emergency” book by
J. Kunstler
it’s over! tits up! baby!
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patriot1 Says:
January 24th, 2008 at 9:42 pm
And the latest slice of baloney is served up by RBC:
G&M Story
“In Alberta, resale house-price gains are expected to slow dramatically, from 30 per cent in 2007 to the 9 per cent range this year. Gains in Saskatchewan should cool from the 30 per cent range to about 15 per cent, according to RBC.”
Earth to RBC: prices in Alberta are down 10-15% from the peak in mid-2007.
Remember folks: “house-price gains are expected to slow dramatically” is analyst-speak for “I know prices are falling but my bosses won’t let me say that”.
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Andreas Says:
January 25th, 2008 at 10:06 am
Most people will just view this as racist.
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btk Says:
January 25th, 2008 at 10:43 am
Having read and re read my own posts and Krissh’s responses. I can’t see him answering any of my questions.
Certainly some of the questions were relevant.
I see he countered that there is a 2-5-10 new home warranty, which is great except the leaky windows shows up afterward the warranty. Note the high rise that’s about 14 years old, I think it’s 11C Drake, is about to or has already been tarped and there is another one of a similar vintage building on Richards (1400 block).
Are these still a great investment Krisshh? Are the “wiseman” lining up to buy them?
If no, does that mean only new units appreciate?
If only new units appreciate, won’t these new units be ten years old in ten years? Are you saying that we should only be buying new units?
It seems to me you asked for questions and when i served them up you spat out some regurgitated realtor speak and tried to bring up consumer confidence as a distraction.
Whether I own or rent is irrelevant. I may have a considerably higher net worth than you due to a fluke like inheriting more money than I could ever spend or caught a lucky break by being a contrarian when everyone else was running away from the market ten years ago OR I could be the guy panhandling outside your building and living in an SRO in the downtown eastside.
I could also be a realtor. You really have no idea what my situation is nor do you have any idea how the basic principals of economics works.
To you supply and demand means nothing because past performance has been good, which everyone but you seems to understand is intrinsically flawed logic.
The point is buying real estate today is a bad idea. There are endless statistics to back this up.
All you’ve been able to do is write rambling responses talking about fictional wise men buying now because they are better than me, or something…
Correct me if I’m wrong but it seems your position is that we should all go out and buy today at these all time highs because consumer confidence is good today and that means that the prices will go up forever.
Have you ever seen what happens in a recession?
Go and ask a boat dealer for a 2000 model power boat, he’ll explain to you that they don’t have year 2000 models but they have a lot of 1999’s.
Go to the RVYC and ask the first person you see in the parking lot. They’ll explain that they had to have membership drives that year and the membership price was halved while boat sales were almost non existent because the economy was down. For the most part the members of the RYVC are educated and worldy and most of them at least playing the part of being “wise men” so I trust you’ll believe their responses.
Please explain Krissh, how did consumer confidence go down between 1999 and 2000?
Could it be because there was a recession?
Do you understand what happens to consumer confidence when there is a recession?
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krrish1 Says:
January 25th, 2008 at 11:15 am
Q.The point is buying real estate today is a bad idea. There are endless statistics to back this up.
A.This situation is similar to a work place if all worker go on strike for ever that bussiness will be dead.
Q.Are these still a great investment Krisshh?
A.Yes,I had explained the building get feuled with upto date construction cost,similar to renovate interior.
you can measure the fear if whole of the building is listed in mls only few people like to sell so catch them before they run.
Q.Correct me if I’m wrong but it seems your position is that we should all go out and buy today at these all time highs because consumer confidence is good today and that means that the prices will go up forever.
A.You have to think of your best if price go up further you affordability will errode by much bigger appreciation.
The best solution is if you can afford monthly payment choose a home a best neighbourhood you like you will be better than those who are just good or very good,if you look to make money rather than peace of mind, I do not advice to anybody in that category.
Q.Do you understand what happens to consumer confidence when there is a recession?
A.Recession is a fear if that wont let you sleep you should buy full pack insurence which cover all clauses from job loss to anything else.
seems like you have a confusion about wisemens
Foolish people make homes(developer,engineers,architects,buyers and genral labourers)
wisemen live in them(renter or tenent)
sorry out of time I think there nothing much left to explain.
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btk Says:
January 25th, 2008 at 11:47 am
I rest my case
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Strataman Says:
January 25th, 2008 at 11:48 am
A krrish1. “Recession is a fear if that wont let you sleep you should buy full pack insurence which cover all clauses from job loss to anything else.” Actually a pretty decent argument on the whole, one question though..insurance only really works if few claim against it. It’s a statistical question. What is your honest opinion of where insurance would go if a couple of thousand people in Metro Vancouver claimed?(Thats not many really but let’s do a thought experiment, 3000 people claim for lost work, what do you think would happen?) What do you think your premiums would be next year if the major insurance companies were receiving more claims then they could handle financially? Honest answer now! By the way best nonsensical post I’ve seen from you!
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Anonymous Says:
January 25th, 2008 at 4:24 pm
“sorry out of time I think there nothing much left to explain.”
OWNED!
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btk Says:
January 25th, 2008 at 4:25 pm
By the way “RYVC” means Royal Vancouver Yacht Club.
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btk Says:
January 25th, 2008 at 4:26 pm
Doh! RVYC= Royal Vancouver Yacht Club.
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Gordon Says:
January 28th, 2008 at 7:30 am
It’s Time……Just look to Calgary to see that even with high oil prices and fantastic employment prices can drop considerably.
I have developed property in Vancouver for the last 20 years. I bought my last properties about 9 months ago and I am NOT buying anything else.
Part of the problem is that people think they can buy some real estate for little down and when it comes time to take possession just dump it for easy money. That coupled with the fact that a lot of younger people have never seen a real estate downturn, as well as the fact that EVERYONE seems to be a real estate mogul or speculator in Vancouver and around BC right now.
I have news for these people. At 1000+ per square feet our prices compare to dense world centers like Paris and NY. This is not sustainable, nor will the prices keep going up. Prices now are over valued and more and more higher end properties are being rented because they cannot be sold.
People here will soon see what we have seen all over the world and even in Vancouver in the 80’s and 90’s , housing prices flattening and even declining. Once prices start to come down watch the max exodus to get out of the market and try to cash in. The US market, the world financial markets, the lending and subprime markets in the US, the cap people of put on paying these rediculous prices, and the unaffordability in general will drive prices down.
Forget what you have heard beforemat 1000+ per square feet for nothing condos, terrible layouts and zero space, no reasonable market specialist can honestly tell you these prices are sustainable or cannot or will not fall. Take it from a developer, we all want to keep prices jacked up but it will bite us later if they do, the city wants property taxes so they want prices up. The Olympics have been prices in twice over and a market ceiling is here.
Long term real estate is never a bad idea, but watch for a market correction in the short term. Don’t beleive me, it is happening now in North Vancouver and other parts and all those with blinders on trying to sell you a 900 square foot 2 bed/2bath downtown for 1 Million have been laughing until now, including me.
I hope thise market can correct before the entire landscape of the city is ruined and all single families have been forced out of Vancouver leaving a place that many cities have been and wish they never were. Lastly if you are thinking about speculating on Pre Sales, this is the first market to see a downturn.
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West Toronto Realtor Says:
February 20th, 2008 at 2:35 am
As a West Toronto Realtor I can only say, that the prices in Canada will rise slightly, but we don´t have to be afraid of U.S. real estate crisis.
To your question, there are some cities, in which, the prices were increasing faster, then in others, like: Edmonton, Vancouver, Saskatoon and so on.