Friday free-for-all
Its time for our weekly real estate news round-up and general open topic discussion here on VancouverCondo.info . Here’s a few stories I’ve noticed this week:
- Vancouver records $7 billion in building permits for 2007
- Another BC sawmill closing down
- Senate passing out money to stimulate economy
- US slowdown hits the Canadian economy
- China’s latest consumer export: inflation
- 10 lies desperate home sellers tell
- Warren Buffet: money still cheap
What are you seeing out there? Post your news, links and anecdotes here!
note: please don’t paste entire articles in the comments, link to the original source and quote key points if appropriate.
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February 8th, 2008 at 12:59 am
February 8th, 2008 at 7:18 am
“Historically low mortgage rates, solid employment and income growth as well as a high level of consumer confidence continue to underpin the high level of housing starts,” said CMHC chief economist Bob Dugan.
The usual from the usual suspects. My question: is he saying that people want more than one house because rates are low and job security is high? Shouldn’t he look at population growth instead when justifying high level of starts?
February 8th, 2008 at 7:55 am
Housing starts in Canada jumped in January, yet another sign that the Canadian market continues strong while the U.S. market melts down.
Housing starts rose to 222,700 on a seasonally adjusted and annual basis, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said Friday, up from 184,700 in December and more than economists had forecast.
Article in the Globe and Mail
February 8th, 2008 at 8:36 am
I guess my question is, how many never become built? We have a giant number of units “under construction”, are they actually being built?
February 8th, 2008 at 8:42 am
Please don’t paste entire articles, just put the link in your comment. Quoting specific parts of an article is fine, but full articles fill up this space pretty quickly.
Thanks!
February 8th, 2008 at 10:12 am
“Housing Starts are the number of privately owned new homes (technically housing units) on which construction has been started over some period.”
February 8th, 2008 at 10:34 am
“We expect the Canadian housing market to remain in fairly good shape in 2008 and to remain an important source of economic activity in Canada,” economics strategist Millan Mulraine of TD Securities said in a note.
The economy is strong because housing is strong. And housing is strong because the economy is strong.
February 8th, 2008 at 10:41 am
February 8th, 2008 at 10:51 am
Hi All
Anybody wondering why housing is so expensive or why there is so little rental
housing in Vancouver? I’ve heard rumours that in some new condo buildings about 25
to 33% of the condos remain unoccupied. However I’ve never been able to get any
official confirmation of this. A new documentary tries to uncover this phenomenon.
Giant Leap/A Pas de Geants is a documentary at Vancity Theatre playing tomorrow
night, Friday, Feb 8 at 20:10. It is about the number of condos in Vancouver that
are being built and bought for speculation with nobody living in them. It’s also
about the destruction of heritage buildings with their replacement by ugly
architecture. The filmmaker was interviewed on the radio this morning.
The film is part of the Rendez-Vous Vancouver, francophone film festival. The
documentary is bilingual.
Giant Leap plays Friday, Feb 8 at 20:45 and is preceded by Ben, Voyons Camille at
20:10. It plays again at noon on Wed, Feb 13. It’s part of a double bill, 10$.
You need a membership pass to see films at Vancity, about 5$. So get there early
enough to get a pass.
Check out the schedule at:
http://www.rendez-vousvancouver.com/
February 8th, 2008 at 10:54 am
February 8th, 2008 at 12:07 pm
That may or may not be relevant. It’s been a lot colder and stormier this winter than last which has an effect on starts.
February 8th, 2008 at 12:40 pm
February 8th, 2008 at 1:18 pm
“TimberWest Forest Corp. has announced that it will permanently close the Elk Falls sawmill in Campbell River, B.C. The last full operating shift will be May 9. - 2/8/2008″
That’s OK the boomers moving to the Island will keep those $25/hr labourers employed in the local grocery stores.
February 8th, 2008 at 1:58 pm
February 8th, 2008 at 2:01 pm
February 8th, 2008 at 2:05 pm
You can have rumors about anything, I’ve heard rumors the moon is made out of cheese but that doesnt mean that it is.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:53 pm
good of you to drop by!
took a walk downtown today……
Patina, The Mode, Dolce and Vita, Atelier
L’Hermitage, Capitol, Canada Line, Convention Centre, Renaissance, Flat Iron, Ritz-Carlton,
Pinnacle International and Shangri La
lots of construction workers in all these, on completion gonna be pretty quiet…
but it’s all good according to satv et al
increased supply is directly correlated to increased demand….
February 8th, 2008 at 2:57 pm
I know this all sounds very tedious and not at all what you want to spend your time doing, but these few simple steps can save you countless hours of misery down the road.
That is of course the attitude - “buy now or be priced out forever”. All that other stuff like; “can we really afford it? and closing costs and replacing the 50 year old furnace, and the mould from the leaking roof and plumbing, and the liens against the property, etc., it’s too hard. Just sign, and hope for the best.
Picture yourself 10 years from now,…
Your house is now approaching 60% of what you paid for it before The Big Implosion, and the global economy is still reeling. You have come down with asbestosis because you did not know that your house was insulated with it, and your wife has lost her job at Starbucks because it closed down. And her lungs are pooched too.
Oh, the tedium of prudence.
February 8th, 2008 at 3:00 pm
first, walk along the sea wall from Cole Harbour to Denman around 6 PM on a Monday (dinner time). Note each building and count the number of suites with the lights on.
The following Monday walk along the sea wall from about Chilco to…. oh say to the Burrard street bridge at about the same time of day. Count the number of suites with lights on, then estimate percentage of units that are occupied.
The difference is on the Cole Harbour side, they’re mostly “owned”
On the English Bay side, they’re mostly “rented”.
Any time I’ve done this there have been about twice as many people in the “rented” units.
February 8th, 2008 at 3:09 pm
Your wit is scathing Dosh, no really you’re so witty and sophisticated you must be a homeowner.
Reminds me of the new label applied to many in the US now: homoaner get it? See Dosh I can be witty too!
February 8th, 2008 at 3:18 pm
Past performance equals future return!
Every one of those new units will double again.
Just take a look L.A.
L.A. had the Olympics in 1984 and is internationally known and a place that wealthy people like to visit and live, so that means prices will automatically go up 10% a year forever, plus they have high paying jobs, a nice climate and they went up before.
So it’s clear that Vancouver will go up too.
On a serious note. Property Managers are trying to tell owners at YTP (yaletown park 1-3) that they cannot rent their 505 sq ft unit out for $1500 a month. These are buyers who paid significantly less than the next batch , that you mentioned above such as Dolce, Capital etc.
Imagine their surprise when they discover that despite paying double the price for their new unit they’ll be unable to get more rent than someone who bought at the Mondrian 7 years ago (bought for $200k and rents for $1250).
“But I paid $600,000 for this unit, I CAN GET MORE THAN THAT!”
If Spectrum is any indication then it will lead to a vacant units (November, December, January, February).
Even writing in caps hasn’t worked for these clever first time landlords.
Mortgage cost=$3500 per month + strata + 6% property management fee
Potential Best Case Rent scenario= $1450
February 8th, 2008 at 3:56 pm
February 8th, 2008 at 4:16 pm
February 8th, 2008 at 4:19 pm
February 8th, 2008 at 4:20 pm
Remember VHB breaking it down?
I think he said the median income in Pt Grey was $109,000 a year and you’d need an income of $120,000 a year to qualify to buy a 2 bedroom.
Now those same units have “appreciated” 25%?
So if I bought an assignment today for $800k what do you guys think i could rent it for?
$1650?
February 8th, 2008 at 4:51 pm
Actually you could probably rent one out to a pimp…not an assignment mind you but the actual unit… if it ever gets built.
February 8th, 2008 at 5:36 pm
yes i noticed that and “!”
the #of “!” is inversely proportional to the level of sophistication and desperation of the newbie landlord.
FOR RENT!! IMMEDIATELY!!!!! CALL NOW!!!!!!!!
FIRST MONTH FREE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
PLEASE PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
February 8th, 2008 at 6:06 pm
“must rent”
http://tinyurl.com/22ehrd
quiet and clearn. must rent out for feb 1st. $300 bonues
posted feb 5/08
February 8th, 2008 at 6:22 pm
“new security building with gym gameroom hot tube. quiet and clearn. must rent out for feb 1st. $300 bonues. please call 604-512-0930 for detail. 24 hours available to view. no massage or e-mail”
I wanna “hot tube”, but “no massage”? However it is “clearn”. And the “bonues”.
Seriously though, I have been watching the search results for Spectrum on craigslist, and they are declining. They were around 220 in december; today it’s 147. Any comments on that?
February 8th, 2008 at 6:27 pm
if the dates go back awhile there could be duplicates, but if this is just 1 day then some of the units must have been rented….
especially the “clearn” ones…..
February 8th, 2008 at 8:18 pm
ok then, it’s unanimous! Does 600% sound reasonable?
February 8th, 2008 at 8:22 pm
Real estate prices help local economy stay strong.
I guess ‘critical thinking 101′ isn’t a required course for a journalism major.
February 8th, 2008 at 8:55 pm
February 8th, 2008 at 9:14 pm
There are two really good indicators to see how well your local economy is doing, housing starts and job creation.
Okeedokee. If you say so.
She says 30-thousand people moved here last year and some 36-thousand jobs were created.
So people move here to build houses for themselves? That will last.
Adamache expects after seeing housing prices go up 11% last year, you can expect prices to be 14% higher in two years.
And I expect that Adamache is going to look like a t*t in two years. Affordability? Who needs it.
But don’t blame speculators for those higher prices, “The figure we have there has been declining over the past year or so, we’re looking at less than 20 percent of home sales, that are being bought and sold within a year.”
Yes please redefine the term “speculator” to whatever suits your lily ass. Those who buy with the expectation of future price increases cannot possibly be “speculators” if they don’t resell within a year. How f*cking convenient. This crap make me ill.
February 8th, 2008 at 9:43 pm
February 8th, 2008 at 9:51 pm
February 8th, 2008 at 10:08 pm
February 8th, 2008 at 10:58 pm
February 8th, 2008 at 11:34 pm
http://www.nypost.com/seven/02052008/ne … 378431.htm
February 8th, 2008 at 11:49 pm
Actually I know of one small developer who’s getting out of the biz. He sold his business after getting multiple offers on it. He used the excuse that he’s taking early retirement, but privately he expects a crash any time. So they’re not all dumb or greedy.
I knew Robyn Adamache in university; she’s a bright woman (though not overly so), so she’s either following the party line to keep her job, or she’s drunk the Koolaid and doesn’t question any of the suppositions her models are built on.
February 9th, 2008 at 6:47 am
February 9th, 2008 at 9:36 am
February 9th, 2008 at 10:58 am
February 9th, 2008 at 11:27 am
therein lies the crux of the problem……
it is NOT affordable…..
not to worry though… that will change…soon
February 9th, 2008 at 11:28 am
February 9th, 2008 at 11:37 am
Speak for yourself, bozo. We not just talking the talk, we’re walking the walk, and that means not buying except at a reasonable price.
Sellers of RE can only get what the buyers are willing to pay. And why is that? Because potential buyers already have a place to live, and don’t have to buy at all.
When the public at large catches on to this, the idiocy will end.
February 9th, 2008 at 1:22 pm
I don’t think any of us are worrying. The only people that need to worry are those who are over leveraged.
Personally I’m gleefully anticipating (a bit of schadenfreude there… but hey, what can you do.)
I’ll try to keep my giggles to a minimum when you’re filing for bankruptcy Anonymous.
February 9th, 2008 at 4:01 pm
I just found this site that lists most of the Spectrum Units all together. Be worth watching to see how these move
February 9th, 2008 at 4:03 pm
February 9th, 2008 at 4:05 pm