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February 9th, 2008 at 4:05 pm
Strataman your link doesn’t work.
February 9th, 2008 at 4:03 pm
That’s a lame troll anonymous. Why aren’t you out there buying all you can if you believe so strongly? Try this: Find us a single example of a place in vancouver that will cashflow with 25% down. You don’t have to share the really good deals, as you are obviously a sophisticated investor, but how ’bout showing us just a single property in vancouver that makes sense from a really basic investment point of view.
February 9th, 2008 at 4:01 pm
http://tinyurl.com/ywzdvcd
I just found this site that lists most of the Spectrum Units all together. Be worth watching to see how these move
February 9th, 2008 at 1:22 pm
“you people should be buying instead of complaining – get into the houising market at what you can afford and stop worrying.”
I don’t think any of us are worrying. The only people that need to worry are those who are over leveraged.
Personally I’m gleefully anticipating (a bit of schadenfreude there… but hey, what can you do.)
I’ll try to keep my giggles to a minimum when you’re filing for bankruptcy Anonymous.
February 9th, 2008 at 11:37 am
you people should be buying instead of complaining – get into the houising market at what you can afford and stop worrying.
Speak for yourself, bozo. We not just talking the talk, we’re walking the walk, and that means not buying except at a reasonable price.
Sellers of RE can only get what the buyers are willing to pay. And why is that? Because potential buyers already have a place to live, and don’t have to buy at all.
When the public at large catches on to this, the idiocy will end.
February 9th, 2008 at 11:28 am
!
February 9th, 2008 at 11:27 am
get into the houising market at what you can afford and stop worrying.,/i>
therein lies the crux of the problem……
it is NOT affordable…..
not to worry though… that will change…soon
February 9th, 2008 at 10:58 am
you people should be buying instead of complaining – get into the houising market at what you can afford and stop worrying.
February 9th, 2008 at 9:36 am
Check out the listing trend
February 9th, 2008 at 6:47 am
Great BARE numbers on PaulB’s site!
February 8th, 2008 at 11:49 pm
House starts were up in the US also, just before the crash. All that starts show is how many developers are still ramping up supply because they think it’ll boom forever.
Actually I know of one small developer who’s getting out of the biz. He sold his business after getting multiple offers on it. He used the excuse that he’s taking early retirement, but privately he expects a crash any time. So they’re not all dumb or greedy.
I knew Robyn Adamache in university; she’s a bright woman (though not overly so), so she’s either following the party line to keep her job, or she’s drunk the Koolaid and doesn’t question any of the suppositions her models are built on.
February 8th, 2008 at 11:34 pm
wow! even the big apple is seeing a wave of foreclosures, and thats a city where people get paid properly. I hear they even have an economy based on something other than condos and pot.
http://www.nypost.com/seven/02.....378431.htm
February 8th, 2008 at 10:58 pm
Bankruptcies in the Danish construction industry rose to the highest level in at least 15 years in January, indicating the economy is in the grips of a slowdown led by declines in the real-estate market
February 8th, 2008 at 10:08 pm
CMHC is full of crap. Housing starts in Jan over Dec is almost alway higher. Housing start in December is the lowest time in the year. Even if the market is crashing, housing starts in Jan will almost aways be higher. From what CMHC is say, the market is crashing. This is because they have no real positive news. It’s like say retail sales is great, we have a strong economy. The credit card sales in December is 15% higher than November. Even in a recession, the sales in December will almost always be higher than November. This is more evidence that the market is crashing.
February 8th, 2008 at 9:51 pm
“Ummm, okay, no problem, we’ll knock ten grand off the purchase price. Now then, take a look at that patio!”
February 8th, 2008 at 9:43 pm
BBY “results for Spectrum ” “any comments” I think they have stopped trying to rent them, and have listed them. In the last month listings have grown to 110 up from 55 a month ago. Some have dropped $40,000 (MLS# V679040), an early listing in Nov 22. Towers 3 and 4 are 60% vacant Towers 1 and 2 about 15% vacant. 27 (of the original 57 listings two listings cancelled) have sold early before Jan, in the December hot sales it seems. Stagnate since then. I only search $700 K down so it is possible there are a few above that.
February 8th, 2008 at 9:14 pm
From snark’s link:
There are two really good indicators to see how well your local economy is doing, housing starts and job creation.
Okeedokee. If you say so.
She says 30-thousand people moved here last year and some 36-thousand jobs were created.
So people move here to build houses for themselves? That will last.
Adamache expects after seeing housing prices go up 11% last year, you can expect prices to be 14% higher in two years.
And I expect that Adamache is going to look like a t*t in two years. Affordability? Who needs it.
But don’t blame speculators for those higher prices, “The figure we have there has been declining over the past year or so, we’re looking at less than 20 percent of home sales, that are being bought and sold within a year.”
Yes please redefine the term “speculator” to whatever suits your lily ass. Those who buy with the expectation of future price increases cannot possibly be “speculators” if they don’t resell within a year. How f*cking convenient. This crap make me ill.
February 8th, 2008 at 8:55 pm
Thousands of Credit Cards Called Back in
February 8th, 2008 at 8:22 pm
some more good news on the infinite feedback loop front:
Real estate prices help local economy stay strong.
I guess ‘critical thinking 101′ isn’t a required course for a journalism major.
February 8th, 2008 at 8:18 pm
Hey, who wants a pay raise? Lets have a show of hands..
ok then, it’s unanimous! Does 600% sound reasonable?
February 8th, 2008 at 6:27 pm
They were around 220 in december; today it’s 147. Any comments on that?
if the dates go back awhile there could be duplicates, but if this is just 1 day then some of the units must have been rented….
especially the “clearn” ones…..
February 8th, 2008 at 6:22 pm
The typos are funny!
“new security building with gym gameroom hot tube. quiet and clearn. must rent out for feb 1st. $300 bonues. please call 604-512-0930 for detail. 24 hours available to view. no massage or e-mail”
I wanna “hot tube”, but “no massage”? However it is “clearn”. And the “bonues”.
Seriously though, I have been watching the search results for Spectrum on craigslist, and they are declining. They were around 220 in december; today it’s 147. Any comments on that?
February 8th, 2008 at 6:06 pm
my all time favourite search parameter
“must rent”
http://tinyurl.com/22ehrd
quiet and clearn. must rent out for feb 1st. $300 bonues
posted feb 5/08
February 8th, 2008 at 5:36 pm
Even writing in caps hasn’t worked for these clever first time landlords.
yes i noticed that and “!”
the #of “!” is inversely proportional to the level of sophistication and desperation of the newbie landlord.
FOR RENT!! IMMEDIATELY!!!!! CALL NOW!!!!!!!!
FIRST MONTH FREE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
PLEASE PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
February 8th, 2008 at 4:51 pm
How much *do* crack whores make per month?
Actually you could probably rent one out to a pimp…not an assignment mind you but the actual unit… if it ever gets built.
February 8th, 2008 at 4:20 pm
The W, oh man, you guys are good.
Remember VHB breaking it down?
I think he said the median income in Pt Grey was $109,000 a year and you’d need an income of $120,000 a year to qualify to buy a 2 bedroom.
Now those same units have “appreciated” 25%?
So if I bought an assignment today for $800k what do you guys think i could rent it for?
$1650?
February 8th, 2008 at 4:19 pm
Florida is an interesting place to watch, as is San Diego and Sacramento. The most interesting effect I didn’t anticipate was the “triage” effect, where there are so many listings that many are ignored and traffic dries up completely. That and Realtor neglect of listings becomes more common. The unanticipated effect for buyers is that the number of crap listings out there it makes it difficult to find stuff worth buying.
February 8th, 2008 at 4:16 pm
Yeah but the problem is in that neighborhood you’re competing with the SRO joints. And soon enough… with the W
February 8th, 2008 at 3:56 pm
“But I paid $600,000 for this unit, I CAN GET MORE THAN THAT!”
February 8th, 2008 at 3:18 pm
Blueskies, aside from the influx of units available, the exodus of construction jobs, the lack of $100k a year jobs (to pay for the 1 bedroom units)in Vancouver to begin with, the conclusion of the federally funded infrastructure (more jobs gone), and a global recession we have nothing to fear because the units have gone up the last three years therefore they will always go up.
Past performance equals future return!
Every one of those new units will double again.
Just take a look L.A.
L.A. had the Olympics in 1984 and is internationally known and a place that wealthy people like to visit and live, so that means prices will automatically go up 10% a year forever, plus they have high paying jobs, a nice climate and they went up before.
So it’s clear that Vancouver will go up too.
On a serious note. Property Managers are trying to tell owners at YTP (yaletown park 1-3) that they cannot rent their 505 sq ft unit out for $1500 a month. These are buyers who paid significantly less than the next batch , that you mentioned above such as Dolce, Capital etc.
Imagine their surprise when they discover that despite paying double the price for their new unit they’ll be unable to get more rent than someone who bought at the Mondrian 7 years ago (bought for $200k and rents for $1250).
“But I paid $600,000 for this unit, I CAN GET MORE THAN THAT!”
If Spectrum is any indication then it will lead to a vacant units (November, December, January, February).
Even writing in caps hasn’t worked for these clever first time landlords.
Mortgage cost=$3500 per month + strata + 6% property management fee
Potential Best Case Rent scenario= $1450
February 8th, 2008 at 3:09 pm
You can have rumors about anything, I’ve heard rumors the moon is made out of cheese but that doesnt mean that it is.
Your wit is scathing Dosh, no really you’re so witty and sophisticated you must be a homeowner.
Reminds me of the new label applied to many in the US now: homoaner get it? See Dosh I can be witty too!
February 8th, 2008 at 3:00 pm
Actually if you want to get a good picture, here’s what you need to do:
first, walk along the sea wall from Cole Harbour to Denman around 6 PM on a Monday (dinner time). Note each building and count the number of suites with the lights on.
The following Monday walk along the sea wall from about Chilco to…. oh say to the Burrard street bridge at about the same time of day. Count the number of suites with lights on, then estimate percentage of units that are occupied.
The difference is on the Cole Harbour side, they’re mostly “owned”
On the English Bay side, they’re mostly “rented”.
Any time I’ve done this there have been about twice as many people in the “rented” units.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:57 pm
I liked the article “10 Lies”. A couple of lines jumped out at me;
I know this all sounds very tedious and not at all what you want to spend your time doing, but these few simple steps can save you countless hours of misery down the road.
That is of course the attitude – “buy now or be priced out forever”. All that other stuff like; “can we really afford it? and closing costs and replacing the 50 year old furnace, and the mould from the leaking roof and plumbing, and the liens against the property, etc., it’s too hard. Just sign, and hope for the best.
Picture yourself 10 years from now,…
Your house is now approaching 60% of what you paid for it before The Big Implosion, and the global economy is still reeling. You have come down with asbestosis because you did not know that your house was insulated with it, and your wife has lost her job at Starbucks because it closed down. And her lungs are pooched too.
Oh, the tedium of prudence.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:53 pm
Dosh:
good of you to drop by!
took a walk downtown today……
Patina, The Mode, Dolce and Vita, Atelier
L’Hermitage, Capitol, Canada Line, Convention Centre, Renaissance, Flat Iron, Ritz-Carlton,
Pinnacle International and Shangri La
lots of construction workers in all these, on completion gonna be pretty quiet…
but it’s all good according to satv et al
increased supply is directly correlated to increased demand….
February 8th, 2008 at 2:05 pm
I’ve heard rumours that in some new condo buildings about 25 to 33% of the condos remain unoccupied
You can have rumors about anything, I’ve heard rumors the moon is made out of cheese but that doesnt mean that it is.
February 8th, 2008 at 2:01 pm
There was another sea-side town with a strong economy based on building and selling condos.. where was that again.. Oh yeah florida.
February 8th, 2008 at 1:58 pm
So housing is strong because the economy is strong because housing is strong? What about when we finish all the major infrastructure construction projects and all those condo towers going up everywhere? Will stoners still be able to find jobs paying $25 bucks an hour?
February 8th, 2008 at 1:18 pm
The economy is so strong that:
“TimberWest Forest Corp. has announced that it will permanently close the Elk Falls sawmill in Campbell River, B.C. The last full operating shift will be May 9. – 2/8/2008″
That’s OK the boomers moving to the Island will keep those $25/hr labourers employed in the local grocery stores.
February 8th, 2008 at 12:40 pm
I am wondering how long it takes to plan the construction and to get a permit. Within one month?
February 8th, 2008 at 12:07 pm
Me:
That may or may not be relevant. It’s been a lot colder and stormier this winter than last which has an effect on starts.
February 8th, 2008 at 10:54 am
The same article also said that the Housing Starts in Jan were 11% less than the one in the same period in 2007. Why do you miss this?
February 8th, 2008 at 10:51 am
I receive this from a friend. I don t know much more but I though it would certainly interest some people here:
Hi All
Anybody wondering why housing is so expensive or why there is so little rental
housing in Vancouver? I’ve heard rumours that in some new condo buildings about 25
to 33% of the condos remain unoccupied. However I’ve never been able to get any
official confirmation of this. A new documentary tries to uncover this phenomenon.
Giant Leap/A Pas de Geants is a documentary at Vancity Theatre playing tomorrow
night, Friday, Feb 8 at 20:10. It is about the number of condos in Vancouver that
are being built and bought for speculation with nobody living in them. It’s also
about the destruction of heritage buildings with their replacement by ugly
architecture. The filmmaker was interviewed on the radio this morning.
The film is part of the Rendez-Vous Vancouver, francophone film festival. The
documentary is bilingual.
Giant Leap plays Friday, Feb 8 at 20:45 and is preceded by Ben, Voyons Camille at
20:10. It plays again at noon on Wed, Feb 13. It’s part of a double bill, 10$.
You need a membership pass to see films at Vancity, about 5$. So get there early
enough to get a pass.
Check out the schedule at:
http://www.rendez-vousvancouver.com/
February 8th, 2008 at 10:41 am
Consumer confidence and economic growth also seem to have the same Escheresque relationship. The virtuous cycle continues.
February 8th, 2008 at 10:34 am
Party on dudes!
“We expect the Canadian housing market to remain in fairly good shape in 2008 and to remain an important source of economic activity in Canada,” economics strategist Millan Mulraine of TD Securities said in a note.
The economy is strong because housing is strong. And housing is strong because the economy is strong.
February 8th, 2008 at 10:12 am
Wikipedia says:
“Housing Starts are the number of privately owned new homes (technically housing units) on which construction has been started over some period.”
February 8th, 2008 at 8:42 am
Dan (and everyone else):
Please don’t paste entire articles, just put the link in your comment. Quoting specific parts of an article is fine, but full articles fill up this space pretty quickly.
Thanks!
February 8th, 2008 at 8:36 am
Remind me what defines a “housing start”? Is that shovels in the ground, or permitting by the municipal government?
I guess my question is, how many never become built? We have a giant number of units “under construction”, are they actually being built?
February 8th, 2008 at 7:55 am
Housing starts begin the year with a bang:
Housing starts in Canada jumped in January, yet another sign that the Canadian market continues strong while the U.S. market melts down.
Housing starts rose to 222,700 on a seasonally adjusted and annual basis, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said Friday, up from 184,700 in December and more than economists had forecast.
Article in the Globe and Mail
February 8th, 2008 at 7:18 am
CMHC qoute:
“Historically low mortgage rates, solid employment and income growth as well as a high level of consumer confidence continue to underpin the high level of housing starts,” said CMHC chief economist Bob Dugan.
The usual from the usual suspects. My question: is he saying that people want more than one house because rates are low and job security is high? Shouldn’t he look at population growth instead when justifying high level of starts?
February 8th, 2008 at 12:59 am
one major stastistic in the builders permit article statrs that there were 1000 fewer building permits in 2007 than 2006. any theories?