Friday Free for All!
Its open topic time here. A few interesting stories I’ve noticed this week:
-Canadians juggling record debt loads
-Whisper sweet mortgages in her ear
-Riverview could house 30,000
-IMF: Canadas banks face more trouble
-Bernanke: Economic outlook has worsened
-Homes in bubble regions still wildly over-valued
-30% of recent us buyers have negative equity
-Florida bank blacklists 191 condo developments
What are you seeing out there? Post your news, links and anecdotes here!
note: my recent work on the blog may have disrupted some user accounts. If you’re having trouble logging in please try re-registering. You can still take part in the blog discussion without registering if you prefer.
RSS 2.0 comments feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
February 14th, 2008 at 9:58 pm
B.C. buys 6 more hotels for homeless in Vancouver
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/briti.....otels.html
February 14th, 2008 at 10:34 pm
Sofia,
Still got one and half hours left so
http://www.123greetings.com/ev.....oses2.html
this is related to housing sector because every single house require a pair of la belle et garcons,Happy Valentines day.
February 15th, 2008 at 7:34 am
NAR Q4 numbers out. Accompanied by the usual spin. Here are the top ten in U.S. dollars:
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA 845.3
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA 777.3
Anaheim-Santa Ana, CA (Orange Co.) 657.4
Honolulu, HI 625.3
New York-Wayne-White Plains, NY-NJ 523.3
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA 522.9
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA 509.7
NY: Nassau-Suffolk, NY 461.7
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT 460.2
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA 457.4
February 15th, 2008 at 7:49 am
Relax, the sky’s not falling
http://tinyurl.com/25596w
The housing market here is still strong,
the financial turmoil has been muted,
and high energy prices benefit the Canadian economy because we are a net energy exporter.
see! it is different here!
February 15th, 2008 at 8:10 am
That was a piece of trash article, blueskies. Talk about selectively looking in the rearview mirror. The author even infers motive on U.S analyst:
This probably won’t stop lots of economists in the U.S. from continuing to forecast a recession. But what must be remembered is that many of those economists work in the financial sector, which has been one of the hardest hit by the housing credit crisis. Their outlook is understandably gloomy, but does it hold true for the whole country?
I think the author is due for some introspection. Why is this person trying so hard to paint a rosy picture on a bleak backdrop?
February 15th, 2008 at 8:21 am
Why is this person trying so hard to paint a rosy picture on a bleak backdrop?
i would guess so as not to panic the sheeple….
February 15th, 2008 at 8:28 am
in the interest of balance:
http://tinyurl.com/225ok6
Meanwhile, sell your real estate now. Sell it now. Now. Get rid of it. All of it. Even if you can’t get 2005 prices (and you won’t). Get what you can now, set the money safely aside
February 15th, 2008 at 9:20 am
My guess is that she’s a devotee of the Secret:
http://www.thesecret.tv/
February 15th, 2008 at 10:07 am
I’ve got mixed feelings about the Riverview project. If that comes to pass it will be a huge deal here. We definitely need to take care of the mental health issue in BC, and I can see how integrating mental health care and normal market housing could be beneficial for those under light care, but are people really going to want to buy high-end market housing that is next to an institution treating drug and alcohol addicts and the mentally ill? Selling that would require the reversal of ‘Not in my backyard’ attitudes, and would be an achievement for hyped salesmanship of an extreme caliber.
February 15th, 2008 at 11:22 am
No, they don’t.
February 15th, 2008 at 11:44 am
STFU
February 15th, 2008 at 11:45 am
Isn’t Woodward’s sold out?
are people really going to want to buy high-end market housing that is next to an institution treating drug and alcohol addicts and the mentally ill?
February 15th, 2008 at 12:02 pm
I don’t know about anyone else but yeah, I’ve give it a try…. if it meant paying about 10 cents on the dollar for the property.
February 15th, 2008 at 12:16 pm
It’s hard to know exactly what made people want to buy at Woodward’s but my suspicion would be they figured it was the start of a major steamrolling of the DTES. I seriously doubt they paid Manhattan prices expecing to live in Calcutta conditions.
OT, I was in line at Future Shop to buy a WII this morning (WIIIIIIII!!!!!!!) Behind me was a grandmother from Wales, and behind her was a guy who had moved her from Belgrade. As I mentioned my bf is from NYC. We were talking about Vancouver, and the Welsh woman said “Vancouver is lovely but it isn’t what it pretends to be”.
We all had a good laugh over that, comparing Vancouver to Manhattan, London and Toronto. We agreed that Toronto really isn’t a world class city though admittedly it’s large and growing. We agreed tha culturally Montreal has a lot going for it, but Van…. well as she said it’s lovely but it’s not what it pretends to be.
I think that’s the problem. Locals really and truly believe everyone on Earth wants to move here. It’s a little mystifying.
Oh, well…. I’m gonna go home tonight, pop in that Godzilla game and stomp the crap outta Tokyo
February 15th, 2008 at 12:21 pm
scullboy,
I have mixed opinions, but did you ask those people why they were here? There’s a lot of “best place on earth” yapping going on, but there’s also a lot of “grass is greener” yapping. The bottom line is that you can pick apart anything. Vancouver’s biggest boosters and critics are its own people.
February 15th, 2008 at 12:57 pm
Actually yeah it came up. We all like being in Vancouver, but none of us thought it was on the same level as NYC or London or Paris.
In a way that’s kind of what makes it desirable. But to claim Van is a cultural capital, as Dosh did a few days ago, is laughable. There are no great museums or galleries here. There are no famous buildings (that I know of). No great artistic movements or trends started here.
It is what it is, a beautiful, modern city with incredible natural surroundings and a fairly moderate, if wet, climate.
Make no mistake though, there are many cities like that, and as the cost of living rises to stupid levels here, it makes other cities, for example Seattle, more attractive in comparison.
I love living here, personally. But I’ve lived in many cities and this one isn’attractive enough to justify the retarded priced people expect to pay for a home. It’s EVERYONE here… the RE agents expect you to kiss THEIR ass, not vice versa.
It’s a really nice city, but it’s NOT “the best place on earth” and the sooner people figure that out, the better.
February 15th, 2008 at 2:36 pm
Residential listings surge while existing home sales lower and report on business thinks the boom is winding down but not to worry, they are talking about Canada and not The Republic of Real Estate/Vancouver
February 15th, 2008 at 2:48 pm
I had a friend of mine get all pissed off at me cause I was dissing Vancouver. He ( they own two condos downtown, one of which was bought last summer with a HELOC from the first!) said “what is your problem? You bought a place 3 years ago and made lot’s of money on your place, why are you so negative?”.
Well I first had to correct him that I haven’t made shit all cause it’s all a paper game. You’ve not made piss all unless you SELL AND move away to buy another place. or invest it all. But the most important factor why I was dissing it is because it has become an overhyped, pretentious wanna be city filled with posers and pumpers. Most of which aren’t even from here.
I also said that I expect the price on my place will be less than what I paid for it once the dust settles. He laughed and said RE never goes down. I told him he should be offloading at leat one but I got he “sell before the Olympics? You’re a moron”
Vancouver’s charm WAS it’s backwater style and relaxed west coast feel. Those were Vancouver’s best assets outside of natural beauty, now that’s gone and only the beauty remains. All the nice little cool spots are overrun with idiots and developments.
Might be time to move… The RE will crash but i think the idiots may remain.
Ok rant over
February 15th, 2008 at 3:02 pm
it has become an overhyped, pretentious wanna be city filled with posers and pumpers. Most of which aren’t even from here.
I disagree – I think there is a blind faith that real estate always rises, but In my experience the people that believe that ARE from here, or at least have lived here for more than 10 years. I know several people that are from here who’ve heloc’ed their first property to buy a second ‘investment’ property. They don’t really see whats happening in US bubble markets as analogous at all. They do believe in the miracle of the wintergames and don’t understand the concept of future gains expectations being already priced into the market.
February 15th, 2008 at 3:12 pm
Hmm interesting. The people that I know from here generally know that Vancouver is famous for being a boom bust town. Alas, a lot forget that I think when they see free money under the rainbow. Or chose to forget it.
February 15th, 2008 at 3:13 pm
lager is right, but i think it depends on who you run with here. to be general of course, seems like people who bought before the runup (35-45) and are ‘investing in condos’ are more on the pretentious side and beleive the hype. people in my age group 25-35 who are just getting married and looking to settle are wondering more and more if its worth staying and questioning how great vancouver really is. i know more than a few who’ve gone to T.O.
my 2cents
February 15th, 2008 at 3:18 pm
The reason I said that the “people not from here” were the worst is probably cause I get the condescending ” Well I have lived in many places before coming here, and believe me this is the nicest city in the world” bullshit. Honeslty I think everyone has drank the coolaid. “Locals” and the “Furiners” (red neck accent).
February 15th, 2008 at 3:36 pm
If you never left Vancouver and were told that Vancouver is world class it makes sense.
However I’ve traveled to Sydney and Perth in Australia ,and spent a few months total there over a few years, I found no one knew much about Vancouver other than it was cold (“I’d never go there, it’s just not tropical”.
I did have one friend come to visit from Sydney for two weeks in the summer of 2005 and he ended up leaving early because he was bored.
In Hong Kong I met people who knew Vancouver and Richmond, obviously.
In Penang, Malaysia nobody knew where Vancouver was, just that it was cold in Canada.
I’m getting off track here, in Seattle and Portland people don’t know much about Vancouver, ditto for San Diego and the Baja of Mexico.
All anyone seems to know about Vancouver is the weather sucks and no one I’ve met planned to move here.
World Class my ass, this is a no fun city with a few tourists attractions, no corporate head offices, no financial hubs, no world famous architecture, and a bunch of drug runners driving fancy cars.
When was the last time you heard someone compare Vancouvers theatre with New Yorks? New York’s Broadway is a bit bigger and world class than Vancouvers Broadway.
What is it about Vancouver that compares with New York?
One is a big city in the world trade headquarters of the world and one is a small cold Canadian town that no one has heard of let alone considers world class outside of Vancouver.
I bet people in Rochester think they live in the best place on earth too.
February 15th, 2008 at 3:36 pm
I didn’t think anyone was “from here” no matter what their views on real estate.
February 15th, 2008 at 4:01 pm
Hang in there, the same attitudes have prevailed in Vancouver with the earlier RE booms. Remember what it was like trying to talk sense into your friends that were pouring every cent they had (and then some) into .com stocks? In a few years everyone in this town will back to normal and the newly arrived will end up back East or North from whence they came.
February 15th, 2008 at 4:05 pm
The reason I said that the “people not from here” were the worst is probably cause I get the condescending ” Well I have lived in many places before coming here, and believe me this is the nicest city in the world” bullshit.
You might think its bullshit, but it sounds like the people that matter to the market don’t. If people are moving here because its the nicest city in the world doesn’t that disprove the logic that most of you use to argue that a crash is coming?
February 15th, 2008 at 4:11 pm
Aleks
Relax PC police ( how did I know this would happen)
I was simply refering to people “raised” here with people who have moved here! I forgot “from here” is a dirty word now.
Most of the people I refered to as “not from here” I meant from the rest of Canada. Probably why they think it’s the greatest place on earth. Compared to -50 in the prairies I guess it does look pretty good. Just not on a world stage.
I love this city, but I have also travelled more than enough to know that it’s just a city.
It’s neither here nor there. Everyone in this town is off their rocker for RE.
February 15th, 2008 at 4:15 pm
DOSH
I don’t know many people from London, Honk Kong, Tokyo, Berlin, New York that claim it’s the best place in the world. Coming from some poorer places in Africa, India, Eastern Europe and less privilaged areas, than yah it’s the best place on Earth.
February 15th, 2008 at 4:35 pm
Heavy listing day for condos I think from an agent friend of mine! Have to check Pauls site tonight.
February 15th, 2008 at 4:38 pm
When does Paul usually do his update? Or when is it automated to do so? Over the last few days on his site they haven’t been increasing by a huge margin. March will be interesting to see. When does the Spring listing rush usually begin? March or April?
February 15th, 2008 at 4:53 pm
Pauls usually updated by 9:30 PM. Judging by past inventory increases the listings start middle of February and go steady for 8 weeks before a dip then resume in June. The next eight weeks should tell us which way this year is headed.Take a look at Pauls inventory graphs for the last two years it will give you an idea.
February 15th, 2008 at 5:53 pm
Over the last few days on his site they haven’t been increasing by a huge margin.
Picked up yesterday.
February 15th, 2008 at 6:11 pm
Based on previous years listing activity we should see a huge listings spike from now (mid-february) until mid-april and perhaps longer.
We have the highest starting point for inventory of the past few years so it will be really interesting to see how far and fast things go. I really think the price declines will come slow at first and then pick up speed through the end of the year.
February 15th, 2008 at 6:35 pm
No, its an ugly city with incredible natural surroundings. Yes the West Side and North Shore look good but other cities have areas that look better (no monster houses) and are a lot cheaper.
And having known the city in the 60′s and 70′s, I wouldn’t call it nice any more. It’s really gotten nasty.
February 15th, 2008 at 6:50 pm
Mohican is right. We are higher in most areas than last year.
Except for Whistler.
http://fishre.blogspot.com/200.....-2007.html
February 15th, 2008 at 6:51 pm
“And having known the city in the 60’s and 70’s, I wouldn’t call it nice any more. It’s really gotten nasty.”
I would second that it is not even comparable now, was a much friendlier community minded place and generally cleaner. Traffic was acceptable, and family businesses were the norm. Restaurants were much better. (That will get a reaction I am sure!). Its growth typical of all cities (it’s not differant) has spoiled the former character of the city. It’s just a city now!
February 15th, 2008 at 6:51 pm
Sorry – that last comment was from me.
February 15th, 2008 at 7:03 pm
Does anyone know about this Steve Moyer person who wrote the article Blueskies linked to (http://tinyurl.com/225ok6) which urges people to sell their homes? What’s his reputation? Level-headed? A bit of a nut? or what? The article was an entertaining read, I’m just having trouble evaluating the source. Did a bit of googling of his name, but it didn’t help much.
February 15th, 2008 at 7:12 pm
I put up some inventory info on my blog. I saw you all chatting about it. We are up 35% in North Vancouver.
More here- http://paul-northvancouverhomes.blogspot.com/
February 15th, 2008 at 7:30 pm
You see, the classic standards of market froth etc. do not apply in Vancouver. Of course even most missed it in Californis etc. as well.
Nobody comes out and rings a bell.
February 15th, 2008 at 8:56 pm
Greater Vancouver 50% more expensive than Greater New York, you say?
Take that, Big Apple! New York is big but we are bubblier!
February 15th, 2008 at 9:05 pm
If vancouver wants to be a world class city it needs a nickname, you know, like the ‘city of lights’ or the ‘big apple’. What do we have so far? ‘no fun city’, ‘the big soggy’.. How about ‘bubbletown’.
Does vancouver have a nickname?
February 15th, 2008 at 9:07 pm
When you have costs of ownership more than twice rental costs, that’s a clanger you’d have to be stone deaf not to hear.
And yes some people did hear it stateside in 2005 and some people are hearing it here now.
February 15th, 2008 at 9:37 pm
Warren,Dosh,
I am agree with you about Vancouver while critics failed to explain why some other bedbugs and polluted cities are better.
Zima,(about nick name)
Full Name:Captain George Vancouver
Occupation:Royal Navy
Nick name: Not Known
There are too many George and too many Captains in the world so Vancouver is least possible name there is one in seattle but no where else in the world so just keep it.
February 15th, 2008 at 9:49 pm
Having moved here from the prairies, I have thought Vancouver was a step up, but was always a bit leary of “The best place on Earth” hype, that did not really seem to mean anything. From my perspective, Vancouver is definitely not a backwater, but it is not a world capital either. Certainly a lot of people did buy into the hype, and more seriously, bought into RE though.
February 15th, 2008 at 11:42 pm
But but but… I thought Canada was different!
The great boom is winding down
“Saskatchewan was also strong, with sales in Regina rising by 43.7 per cent while the average price rose 69.1 per cent, and in Saskatoon by 37 per cent with the average price up 36.5 per cent.”
Saskatoon
Saskton
Sockton
Stockton!
February 16th, 2008 at 12:16 am
“are people really going to want to buy high-end market housing that is next to an institution treating drug and alcohol addicts and the mentally ill?”
I know a lot of people in West Van and have been in many homes there as my partner is a decorative finisher. I can tell you that the only thing that is different is where they buy thier drugs from and that they can afford to pay for psychiatric help that is not extended to the poor. Also Beverly Hills, where I’m from, has more people seeing shrinks per capita than anywhere in America. So people can pick the kind of drug addict they want as neighbors, it’s a free country.
February 16th, 2008 at 2:53 am
The Saskatchewan housing boom coincided with a period of very strong economic growth, where there was even positive net migration-pretty unusual for that province. That being said, while there was a spike in demand for housing, prices rapidly seemed to climb into the bubble zone. Rents are still modest in urban Regina and Saskatoon.
February 16th, 2008 at 10:06 am
And real “World Class Cities” ie. New York, London, Paris, Chicago, do not need to market themselves as World Class. They just are.
February 16th, 2008 at 10:27 am
Zima
“If vancouver wants to be a world class city it needs a nickname”
Well there’s always Coupland’s “City of Glass”.
Also we’re sometimes called “Hollywood North”.
Most cities have nicknames… The problem is not in HAVING a name but having an internationally known nickname (not that Paris or London or Moscow or Hong Kong or LA or San Fran or Beijing need nicknames apparently).
February 16th, 2008 at 10:40 am
They just are——falling off the clips because they don’t have certificates to support their claim over Vancouver.
you guys are failed to prove why some other but not Vancouver but I can show you why it’s Vancouver but not other except some Austrailian cities.
Here are the distinction to call some place a best place on earth and Vancouver got them as following…..
Quality of Living rating: 1.1
Quality of life index: 1%
Stability EIU Rating (out of 5)
Prevalence of petty Crime: 2
Prevalence of violent Crime: 1
Threat of military conflict: 1
Threat of civil unrest/conflict: 1
Threat of terrorism: 1
Stability rating: 1.2
Stability index: 5 per cent
Healthcare
Availability of private healthcare: 1
Quality of private healthcare provision : 1
Availability of public healthcare: 1
Quality of public healthcare provision: 1
Availability of over the counter drugs: 1
General healthcare indicators: 1
Healthcare rating: 1.0
Healthcare index: 0 per cent
Culture & Environment
Climate: Humidity/Temperature rating: 1
Climate: Discomfort to travellers: 1
Cultural hardship: Corruption: 1
Cultural hardship: Social/Religious restrictions: 1
Cultural hardship: Level of censorship Recreation: Sports: 1
Recreation: Culture: 1
Recreation: Food and drink : 1
Availability of consumer goods and services: 1
Culture & Environment rating: 1.0
Culture & Environment index: 0 per cent
Education
Availability of private education: 1
Quality of private education provision: 1
General public education indicators: 1
Education rating: 1.0
Education index: 0%
Infrastructure
Transport: Quality of road network: 1
Transport: Quality of public transport: 1
Transport: Quality of regional or international links: 1
Availability of good quality housing: 1
Utilities: Quality of energy provision: 1
Utilities: Quality of water provision: 1
Utilities: Quality of telecommunications infrastructure: 1
Infrastructure rating: 1.0
Infrastructure index: 0 per cent
where 0 per cent means the city is exceptional and 100 per cent means it is intolerable.
Vancouver attained an overall score of 1.3 per cent thats what makes our city the best place on earth.
February 16th, 2008 at 11:09 am
Good point Drachen, I guess Vancouver does have some nicknames, but I don’t know of anyone outside this city who knows we refer to it as ‘hollywood north’ and I’ve never heard of anyone besides coupland refer to it as ‘city of glass’.
February 16th, 2008 at 11:28 am
“If vancouver wants to be a world class city it needs a nickname”
Heard of “Hongcouver”?
February 16th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
I was a little surprised regarding Canada’s immigration system. A couple of years ago, I met a guy from England. He was a skilled, experienced tradesman in his early forties. He had some money, didn’t have any illnesses, and was quite ambitious. In other words, he was not going to be a drag on our social system. He told me that it took him three years to jump through all the hoops in order to come to Canada.
They even made him take a French exam (which wasn’t a problem because he had lived in France for a few years). He thought that everyone in Canada must be bi-lingual since he had to take a French exam. He was very shocked when I told him that many immigrants that come to Canada don’t even know how to speak English, let alone French. Is it me, or does this not make any sense? Why such scrutiny for a “highly desireable” and employable person, when others who are just going to be a drag on the system seem to get in very easy?
The reason we were talking about this was that he was a little upset because he sold his place in England, expecting to be able to move to B.C., not realizing it was going to take three years to get permission. In the meantime, he missed alot of the upside in the U.K. market, only to move to our province at the apparent peak of ours. He came here on vacation with his wife, and fell in love with our scenery, and decided to move here. Incidentally, he ended up moving back to England after about a year. It seems that he could make alot more money working there (2 – 3 times as much), while it would be very difficult to buy anything worthwhile here on the wages being paid in this province.
February 16th, 2008 at 3:08 pm
Does anyone know where I can find a historcial graph showing the median income in Vancouver vs the median house price. (Similar to the one in the WSJ showing California?)
Thanks
February 16th, 2008 at 4:27 pm
STFU. Seriously.
February 16th, 2008 at 4:29 pm
Jesus, will you please STFU.
February 16th, 2008 at 5:10 pm
redeye – look at the 4th chart down on this page http://tinyurl.com/3yter9
February 16th, 2008 at 6:34 pm
Not much point Redeye. Our income has only risen at about the same pace as inflation. Just find an inflation adjusted price graph.
February 16th, 2008 at 6:46 pm
Casual Observer – I’ve noticed this too living in richmond, but essentially what happens is we have lax laws to people who have a lot of money, who get immigration if they come here to open a buisness that will hire i believe 6-7 full time employees.
I think someone was on the right track of vancouver being called “hongcouver”. I don’t really care if people take it as being racist. Growing up in richmond and watching the cliques not try to assimilate into canadian culture and essentially take advantage of canada’s healthcare, welfare and social services. I have had friends who work for the government through the CRA and was really suprised to hear how many immigrants come here apply for welfare and every grant they can get, and their children will go to school here while driving a bmw. But what can we do? The birthrate is declining and they have to be lax to immigrants to bring their family here to bring the population up.
As for Vancouver? Like I’ve said in earlier threads. I love this city. I grew up in the east side and even though it was not the best area, It holds a special area in my heart. It’s sad that once I finish college and become an RN I may look for a different area to live in if things keep up.
February 16th, 2008 at 6:50 pm
Also like to add, that even if things go bad here, I can’t see prices going back to what they were once before, unless there is some type of earthquake. Because even in a depressed economy there will always be people making money.
February 16th, 2008 at 7:00 pm
fascinating read!
http://tinyurl.com/2ezw7z
As a forewarning of events to follow, it is interesting to note that from March 2008, the US government will cease publication of its economic indices for reasons of budgetary constraints
!!
February 16th, 2008 at 7:16 pm
“Casual Observer – I’ve noticed this too living in richmond, but essentially what happens is we have lax laws to people who have a lot of money, who get immigration if they come here to open a buisness that will hire i believe 6-7 full time employees.”
have you noticed it takes some other immigrants 5 years to get approval? I doubt there is a conspiracy of any sort to keep well qualified people from immigrating here. Some queues are just longer than others, i think. also, checking the “french” box probably was what prompted the language test. what would have happened if he left it blank, i wonder? probably would have spared him the french test. on the other hand, it might have lowered his qualifying points… i’m not sure but i think english tests (toefl) are now required as well… could be wrong though
February 16th, 2008 at 7:25 pm
Ok, it iis a friday free for all.
Open topic.
I need to find a good reputable financial advisor. I need to move some stuff around. Who do you recommend?
I am not touching real asstate.
February 16th, 2008 at 8:44 pm
From Rob’s BLog,
Some people are banned from his site, he has put on a IP Address blocker, I am able to get through with my FOX program but for some of the bears that can’t:
robchipman { 02.16.08 at 7:25 pm }
From the comments I’m led to believe that the market’s changed substantially and I’ve somehow missed it. Maybe I’m reading them incorrectly, but to quote from an earlier post:
“Sales were essentially the same as January 2007, (1,818 vs 1,806).
New listings rose substantially in January… As a result total active listings rose to 11,203…They were 11,266 in January of 2007…Compared to January of ‘07 the benchmark price is up 15.7% for detached properties, 12.4% for attached properties and 13.8% for apartments”.
Price growth is slowing, marginally. Aside from that I can’t see many indications that this market is headed anywhere in the vicinity of down at present. It will change direction, but it ahsn’t started to do so yet
-A-
Snick, et al, I’ll keep you guys posted.
February 16th, 2008 at 8:55 pm
nvgirl, take a look at mohican, have never met the guy but he sure knows what he’s talking about….
http://langley-financial-planning.blogspot.com/
February 16th, 2008 at 9:05 pm
Weekly Numbers
by Rob Chipman
For the week ending February 16 there were 1,394 new listings and 761 sales, for a sell/list of 54.59%.
Average list price was $544,251, while average sales price was $534,313, a difference of $9,938, or 1.83%. Average DOMs was 38.
109, or 14.32% of all sales went over list price. Average list price of overlists was $521,715, while average sale price of over lists was $540,495, an average difference of $18,780, or +3.6%. Average DOMs for overlists was 24. Listed for less than average, sold for more than average, in less time. (Who picked the list price? Did they sell for under or over market?)
Of the overlists, 34 were in Vancouver West, 15 in East Van, 14 in Richmond, 3 in Port Coquitlam, 4 in Port Moody, 4 in New West, 14 in North Van, 6 in Maple Ridge, 8 in Burnaby and 7 in Surrey.
The highest overlist went at 22% over ($306,000/ 9 DOM). The biggest underlist was 17% under (340,000/ 59 DOM)
There were 328 price changes, of which 33, or 10.06, were increases. 89.94% of the price changes were decreases. The average original list price was $591,528, while the average new list price is $576,594, a difference of $14,934, or 2.45%. Average DOM to price change was 54.
The average list price of sales was 92.01% of the average original list price of price changes; the average sales price was 92.67% of the average new price of price changes.
Inventory reached 10,200, of which 2,396, or 23.49%, were over 90s.
2.89% of all active listings in my area had their prices reduced this week.
-A-
From Rob’s blog
February 16th, 2008 at 9:32 pm
rob,
thanks for the numbers and welcome back to vancouver condo,keep up the good work.
February 16th, 2008 at 9:34 pm
Sure,I will Stand Tough For U (stfu)in decades to come.
February 16th, 2008 at 9:44 pm
Delivery Driver
February 17th, 2008 at 12:39 am
Yes but those people have more sophisticated ways to pay for their habits than breaking into your house or car or aggressive panhandling.
February 17th, 2008 at 12:44 am
There are still people making money in Detroit, too.
What matters is not that people are working, but what they can afford to buy.
February 17th, 2008 at 1:31 am
I doubt there is a conspiracy of any sort to keep well qualified people from immigrating here
“Never ascribe to malice, that which can be explained by incompetence” – Napoleon.
Canada’s immigration system is not geared toward our biggest need for labour, which is skilled trades. It’s not well geared to labour needs at higher educational levels either. So you get loads of family class immigrants picking fruit and PhD’s driving taxis.
And please don’t just blame the Liberals for it, the Cons have been in charge for 2 years now and they’ve had ample time to fix it.
February 17th, 2008 at 2:11 am
It’s sad that once I finish college and become an RN I may look for a different area to live in if things keep up.
…even if things go bad here, I can’t see prices going back to what they were once before, unless there is some type of earthquake. Because even in a depressed economy there will always be people making money.
Cheer up, life is beautiful. What’s money, anyway?
Still, it’ll be nice to own a home. One sure way of beating the odds (of owning a home) is not only to save, save and save (I recall you’ve got savings of $50,000 – huge for a young person). It’s to make sure that after several years of working, your pay should be at least double to several hundred percent more than your first paycheck. This really happened to a good number of truly hard working people I know. This way it doesn’t matter whether or not the property market crashes. You can well afford to buy.
The sad (happy to some) truth is that regardless of whether there is a crash or not, historically, in all parts of the world, property prices always tread upwards (to new highs) every 10-15 years.
February 17th, 2008 at 4:36 am
Oh no doubt. I’m actually pretty good with my money and while I’m going to school I work in a club pulling in 3-5 grand a month, and whatever I have left after rent, bills and my vacation fund, I throw into my investments.
I agree. There is no doubt that I will be able to afford in the future. It’s more about value for money now.
February 17th, 2008 at 8:28 am
Andreas,
Hey Majin
Noname
February 17th, 2008 at 9:45 am
Evergreen:
“The sad (happy to some) truth is that regardless of whether there is a crash or not, historically, in all parts of the world, property prices always tread upwards (to new highs) every 10-15 years.”
I assume you have an interest in disseminating misinformation because you forgot to mention that after the “new high” property prices always fall to (inflation adjusted) almost exactly where they started from. The ONLY exceptions are post WW2 where prices had been at a depressed low since the great depression and they merely normalized and the current run-up which started in the ’80s and has had a few bumps but has yet to return to the trendline.
If you do your homework you’ll find that prices will almost certainly return to around 1/3 of current values. Yes that means that SFH will be in the 275k range once things settle out. Don’t let vested interest people like evergreen tell you otherwise!
The REAL truth is that Real Estate does NOT appreciate over time. They’ve been keeping track for 400 years in Amsterdam, if prices had appreciated even 1% above inflation then adjusted prices would be 52 times what they were 400 years ago. Since wages approximately follow inflation that would mean that a house which half of the population could live in 400 years ago only 1% of the population could afford now.
February 17th, 2008 at 10:05 am
Drachen:
“I assume you have an interest in disseminating misinformation because you forgot to mention that after the “new high” property prices always fall to (inflation adjusted) almost exactly where they started from.”
The bulls have become a little more subtle and stealthy at disseminating the bs haven’t they?
February 17th, 2008 at 11:13 am
DRachen is right. Real Estate in the long run never outgrow inflation.
February 17th, 2008 at 11:27 am
Thank you patriotz. Much appreciated.
February 17th, 2008 at 2:52 pm
Real Estate in the long run never outgrow inflation.
Yes it does. You are forgetting about densification.
February 17th, 2008 at 3:00 pm
Noname: Don’t be hating now
February 17th, 2008 at 4:38 pm
Andreas,
I didn’t mean to be ‘hating’.
I just wanted to point out that you are familiar from another site.
Noname
February 17th, 2008 at 4:46 pm
It depends on how you define things Freako. How about MEDIAN real estate will never outpace inflation in the long term.
Also, I don’t think densification pushes up the price of homes, just of land. And, even then only at specific times in specific areas.
February 17th, 2008 at 7:30 pm
Total accumulated debt was 131 per cent of Canadian household income last year after income tax and transfers such as child benefits. That’s up from 91 per cent in 1990, Sauve says.
Up 91% since 1990? I can believe that Vancouverites have high levels of debt, but 131% for all Canadians?!? Thats insane. People living off debt better hope interest rates don’t drift up. Why are debt levels so high even in places with better incomes and lower cost of living than Van?
February 17th, 2008 at 7:44 pm
It depends on how you define things Freako. How about MEDIAN real estate will never outpace inflation in the long term.
That is a pretty meaningless number. What matters is apples to apples. People buy individual properties, not a median index. More specifically, LAND outpaces inflation, structures do not. Hence central low density should would be expected to appreciate faster than inflation. Condos wouldn’t, but they have high yield in return. Well, high yield in more normal times.
February 17th, 2008 at 9:48 pm
While scientists don’t like it, a Simon Fraser University marketing professor is praising an advertising brochure circulating overseas for condos at B.C.’s Whistler and Big White ski resorts that claims they are “global warming resistant.”
http://www.cbc.ca/consumer/sto.....-snow.html
February 17th, 2008 at 10:21 pm
I assume you have an interest in disseminating misinformation…Don’t let vested interest people like evergreen tell you otherwise!
The bulls have become a little more subtle and stealthy at disseminating the bs haven’t they?
Just because I voiced an opinion which you don’t agree with doesn’t make me a bull nor mean I have a vested interest in property or want to mislead people.
We sure have different concepts of what it means to be bullish or bearish. For me, being a bull or bear refers to the time between now and maybe, the next few years. That’s the only meaningful way it’s used in financial circles. In my post, I only referred to a time 10-15 years from now. Even if I feel that property prices will be at a new high then (adjusted or unadjusted for inflation), logically I can still be bearish for the next few years.
But, I have no idea where the present BC property market is headed in the next few years. If you have, good for you.
I don’t view property from a pure investment angle (value for money). Unlike stocks, bonds, currency, gold, a property has got investment cum other values. My main issue is that most of us have only about a 20 year time frame from our 20s to 40s to make that important decision to buy a house. So if you want or need to buy, why care about what might happen over 50 to 400 years especially if you can afford it?
February 17th, 2008 at 11:41 pm
“Hence central low density should would be expected to appreciate faster than inflation.”
Agreed for Vancouver. Other cities experience “core rot” meaning sprawl occurs in lieu of densification. Income stratification can also lead to faster appreciation in some areas (the location^3 adage).
February 18th, 2008 at 1:12 am
“While scientists don’t like it, a Simon Fraser University marketing professor is praising an advertising brochure circulating overseas for condos at B.C.’s Whistler and Big White ski resorts that claims they are “global warming resistant.”
Global warming resistant? What does that mean? Do you mean to say that overseas investors won’t be able to buy a condo in Hongcouver and have it burn down with them in it? Drat!
February 18th, 2008 at 1:54 am
I don’t view property as an investment I view it as a place to live.
February 18th, 2008 at 6:35 am
If you view property as a place to live, you view it as an investment.
Specifically an income or “value” investment rather than a speculative or “growth” investment.
Ditto an investor who buys for cash flow.
Unfortunately in the popular lexicon “investment” has come to mean “speculative investment” only. I wonder how many people consider a GIC to be an investment (which of course it is).
Greater Fool Planet.
February 18th, 2008 at 7:33 am
Noticed you purposely left out the poor grades Vancouver got for housing affordability. But…then again you never post anything negative.
February 18th, 2008 at 7:42 am
interesting read on credit deflation
http://tinyurl.com/25ckpr
As the extent of the now-collapsed subprime bubble continues to be revealed, there have been an increasing number of comparisons to the pre-Great-Depression 1920s.
February 18th, 2008 at 8:26 am
Not to carp too much… But those are some pretty definitive stats to come out with. Heck, what am I saying, stats that good stand up by themselves, certainly don’t need a link or a source to give any cred. For example: 93.5% of real estate agents believe privately Vancouver is in a bubble and will crash soon. No link but you can tell from the precision of the number that I didn’t just make that up.
February 18th, 2008 at 8:45 am
From blueskies link above:
If the Nikkei 225 is an adequate proxy for the Japanese economy, the fact that the Nikkei is at the same level now as it was in 1985 is telling evidence of the troubles that the Japanese economy has had to slog through. It’s also a telling counter-example for advocates of a government-stimulus package to save the economy. Japan tried the Keynesian remedy last decade, which may have helped keep things ticking over but did not turn the slump around.
This reminded me of something – I likely have this wrong, but didn’t I read somewhere that Vancouver house prices only recently attained the peak value that they had in the early 80s? How long did it take for those prices to return to their bubble peak price anyways?
February 18th, 2008 at 9:21 am
Evergreen,Andreas,
you guys are unbeatable again great sense of humor while your opponents are trying to put infuance by force.
Poster 1 does not know what is inflation and how does that work and with lack of math skill he forgot to put half of dozens zeros behind price plus he don’t know average age of human life.
Poster 2 was a blind bear jump to support without reading the fact.
poster 3 is some what correct but absolutley wrong here.
Freako (as poster 4)is absolutely right so poster no 2 and 3 disappear and poster 1 never returned back to say sorry to evergreen,
Poster 5 Andreas is absolutely right because this is depend on buyers what does he/she keep in mind while buying a place for them self,our home is not a bussiness it is a place to live in the best desirable neighborhood.
Poster 6 is wrong because poster 5 is right.
February 18th, 2008 at 9:25 am
Michael Randallbard,
Micheal you can call it what ever but they will burn on slow pace and those are brand new so you can feel good unless their life come to an end.
February 18th, 2008 at 9:26 am
….and poster zero is just that!
February 18th, 2008 at 9:41 am
Agreed for Vancouver. Other cities experience “core rot” meaning sprawl occurs in lieu of densification.
Yes, the underlying assumption is population AND economic growth.
If the Nikkei 225 is an adequate proxy for the Japanese economy, the fact that the Nikkei is at the same level now as it was in 1985
A much more alarming statistic is that it is at 1/3 of what it was in 1990.
I read somewhere that Vancouver house prices only recently attained the peak value that they had in the early 80s? How long did it take for those prices to return to their bubble peak price anyways?
Real prices took 25 years almost to the day. That happened in 2006. Nominal prices, can’t remember exactly, but much less, maybe 7 years. Don’t forget that inflation was quite high then. Now it isn’t. Nominal and real price drops are almost identical.
February 18th, 2008 at 9:52 am
A bearish commentary (Real Audio file!!!) on CBC’s Biznet this morning. Analysts (unnamed in the commentary) are apparently muttering of a 10% drop in Canadian prices this year. This is one of the first openly and extremely bearish predictions of future and imminent Canadian RE troubles.
February 18th, 2008 at 10:03 am
Forgive the ignorant question, but can somebody please explain what the difference is between nominal and real prices?
February 18th, 2008 at 10:53 am
Sure. Nominal price is simply the price in dollars. Real price is this price adjusted for inflation to some base date. The consumer price index is almost always used for this (real = nominal/CPI). That’s just a convention, there is nothing magical about CPI.
Analysts (unnamed in the commentary) are apparently muttering of a 10% drop in Canadian prices this year.
What price? Median or average? It matters, because BC and Alberta RE is so expensive compared to the rest of the country. A correction to fundamentals in the West could drop the national average a lot all by itself.
But a 10% drop in the Canadian median would have to mean a significant drop in the non-bubble areas where most Canadians live.
February 18th, 2008 at 11:05 am
patriotz: details on what 10% down meant was never specified. Listen for what it’s worth; inklings of anything negative in the MSM, regardless of the exact number, is maveric IMO.
February 18th, 2008 at 11:11 am
A much more alarming statistic is that it is at 1/3 of what it was in 1990.
Damn! Is that true? Some of them must have had their networth thrashed in a crash like that. Does Japan have an old age pension to support their older citizens?
What are people doing with their RRSP contributions this year? I have a feeling we’re going to be in for a rough ride in the markets, so is it a good time to be buying equities or index funds? I’m paying too much for MER on mutual funds and trying to pay closer attention to this stuff, so I started a topic in the forum to ask for ideas on this:
http://vancouvercondo.info/for.....2&t=25
February 18th, 2008 at 2:15 pm
Mold City, I was doing index funds too, but figured pPillips Hager North are the way to go. They have a Balanced fund which is a Morningstar Fund Pick and has an MER of .88 (versus 2% for comparable funds at RBC).
You need $25,000 to open an account with them, or you can pay a financial planner an extra .5% with $5,000 down.
Here’s the opening paragraph from the morningstar.ca article
”
Low costs and an excellent team of managers make this fund a top pick.
Even with the overabundance of balanced offerings, there are still only a handful of names that we would consider worthy of owning, and PH&N Balanced is definitely one of them. With rock-bottom fees and an excellent management team that attempts to add value with all facets of the port”
http://www.morningstar.ca/glob.....undid=5580
The market is volatile so a balanced fund with really low fees and a consistent track record could be a good move right now.
There are other Vancouver Brokerages, which are highly rated with lower MER than the bank funds.
Leith Wheeler is another one, and another one that I wouldn’t personally use but is very popular is Cannacord.
If you like real estate the Dynamic real estate fund is a good one. It has a 2.58% MER though…..
February 18th, 2008 at 3:02 pm
TD has some good index fund offerings. Their e-series has particularly low fees and they offer pre-constructed portfolios for people at different risk tolerance levels.
CIBC also has a low-fee balanced index fund.
The PH&N fund is really good. The only issue I see with that fund is the underexposure to global markets but one could shore that up with a couple good global funds.
February 18th, 2008 at 3:10 pm
Mohican,
Any advice on “good global funds”.
-J
February 18th, 2008 at 3:21 pm
Mohican I agree. They have an Overseas Equity fund and a U.S. fund which’re pretty good, he could do 80% balanced, 10% overseas and 10% U.S. and then when the Canadian Market hits bottom switch some into the PHN Dividend income fund too.
Jay, If you are just starting with one single global fund, take a look a:
Mac Cundill Value Fund
Some sites worth using for research include:
http://www.morningstar.ca
http://www.globefund.ca
http://www.stockhouse.ca
February 18th, 2008 at 4:04 pm
Down with mutual funds and high MER.
ETF is the way to go. In fact, the short ETF has been a lot of fun the last couple months. You can check out SKF, SRS, FXP on US market.
February 18th, 2008 at 6:42 pm
PHN is a reputable fund. Might have to jump “ships”.
Interesting info. Thanks!
February 18th, 2008 at 9:30 pm
http://www.321gold.com/editori.....808/1a.gif