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February 18th, 2008 at 9:41 am
Agreed for Vancouver. Other cities experience “core rot” meaning sprawl occurs in lieu of densification.
Yes, the underlying assumption is population AND economic growth.
If the Nikkei 225 is an adequate proxy for the Japanese economy, the fact that the Nikkei is at the same level now as it was in 1985
A much more alarming statistic is that it is at 1/3 of what it was in 1990.
I read somewhere that Vancouver house prices only recently attained the peak value that they had in the early 80s? How long did it take for those prices to return to their bubble peak price anyways?
Real prices took 25 years almost to the day. That happened in 2006. Nominal prices, can’t remember exactly, but much less, maybe 7 years. Don’t forget that inflation was quite high then. Now it isn’t. Nominal and real price drops are almost identical.
February 18th, 2008 at 9:26 am
….and poster zero is just that!
February 18th, 2008 at 9:25 am
Michael Randallbard,
Micheal you can call it what ever but they will burn on slow pace and those are brand new so you can feel good unless their life come to an end.
February 18th, 2008 at 9:21 am
Evergreen,Andreas,
you guys are unbeatable again great sense of humor while your opponents are trying to put infuance by force.
Poster 1 does not know what is inflation and how does that work and with lack of math skill he forgot to put half of dozens zeros behind price plus he don’t know average age of human life.
Poster 2 was a blind bear jump to support without reading the fact.
poster 3 is some what correct but absolutley wrong here.
Freako (as poster 4)is absolutely right so poster no 2 and 3 disappear and poster 1 never returned back to say sorry to evergreen,
Poster 5 Andreas is absolutely right because this is depend on buyers what does he/she keep in mind while buying a place for them self,our home is not a bussiness it is a place to live in the best desirable neighborhood.
Poster 6 is wrong because poster 5 is right.
February 18th, 2008 at 8:45 am
From blueskies link above:
If the Nikkei 225 is an adequate proxy for the Japanese economy, the fact that the Nikkei is at the same level now as it was in 1985 is telling evidence of the troubles that the Japanese economy has had to slog through. It’s also a telling counter-example for advocates of a government-stimulus package to save the economy. Japan tried the Keynesian remedy last decade, which may have helped keep things ticking over but did not turn the slump around.
This reminded me of something – I likely have this wrong, but didn’t I read somewhere that Vancouver house prices only recently attained the peak value that they had in the early 80s? How long did it take for those prices to return to their bubble peak price anyways?
February 18th, 2008 at 8:26 am
Not to carp too much… But those are some pretty definitive stats to come out with. Heck, what am I saying, stats that good stand up by themselves, certainly don’t need a link or a source to give any cred. For example: 93.5% of real estate agents believe privately Vancouver is in a bubble and will crash soon. No link but you can tell from the precision of the number that I didn’t just make that up.
February 18th, 2008 at 7:42 am
interesting read on credit deflation
http://tinyurl.com/25ckpr
As the extent of the now-collapsed subprime bubble continues to be revealed, there have been an increasing number of comparisons to the pre-Great-Depression 1920s.
February 18th, 2008 at 7:33 am
Noticed you purposely left out the poor grades Vancouver got for housing affordability. But…then again you never post anything negative.
February 18th, 2008 at 6:35 am
If you view property as a place to live, you view it as an investment.
Specifically an income or “value” investment rather than a speculative or “growth” investment.
Ditto an investor who buys for cash flow.
Unfortunately in the popular lexicon “investment” has come to mean “speculative investment” only. I wonder how many people consider a GIC to be an investment (which of course it is).
Greater Fool Planet.
February 18th, 2008 at 1:54 am
I don’t view property as an investment I view it as a place to live.
February 18th, 2008 at 1:12 am
“While scientists don’t like it, a Simon Fraser University marketing professor is praising an advertising brochure circulating overseas for condos at B.C.’s Whistler and Big White ski resorts that claims they are “global warming resistant.”
Global warming resistant? What does that mean? Do you mean to say that overseas investors won’t be able to buy a condo in Hongcouver and have it burn down with them in it? Drat!
February 17th, 2008 at 11:41 pm
“Hence central low density should would be expected to appreciate faster than inflation.”
Agreed for Vancouver. Other cities experience “core rot” meaning sprawl occurs in lieu of densification. Income stratification can also lead to faster appreciation in some areas (the location^3 adage).
February 17th, 2008 at 10:21 pm
I assume you have an interest in disseminating misinformation…Don’t let vested interest people like evergreen tell you otherwise!
The bulls have become a little more subtle and stealthy at disseminating the bs haven’t they?
Just because I voiced an opinion which you don’t agree with doesn’t make me a bull nor mean I have a vested interest in property or want to mislead people.
We sure have different concepts of what it means to be bullish or bearish. For me, being a bull or bear refers to the time between now and maybe, the next few years. That’s the only meaningful way it’s used in financial circles. In my post, I only referred to a time 10-15 years from now. Even if I feel that property prices will be at a new high then (adjusted or unadjusted for inflation), logically I can still be bearish for the next few years.
But, I have no idea where the present BC property market is headed in the next few years. If you have, good for you.
I don’t view property from a pure investment angle (value for money). Unlike stocks, bonds, currency, gold, a property has got investment cum other values. My main issue is that most of us have only about a 20 year time frame from our 20s to 40s to make that important decision to buy a house. So if you want or need to buy, why care about what might happen over 50 to 400 years especially if you can afford it?
February 17th, 2008 at 9:48 pm
While scientists don’t like it, a Simon Fraser University marketing professor is praising an advertising brochure circulating overseas for condos at B.C.’s Whistler and Big White ski resorts that claims they are “global warming resistant.”
http://www.cbc.ca/consumer/sto.....-snow.html
February 17th, 2008 at 7:44 pm
It depends on how you define things Freako. How about MEDIAN real estate will never outpace inflation in the long term.
That is a pretty meaningless number. What matters is apples to apples. People buy individual properties, not a median index. More specifically, LAND outpaces inflation, structures do not. Hence central low density should would be expected to appreciate faster than inflation. Condos wouldn’t, but they have high yield in return. Well, high yield in more normal times.
February 17th, 2008 at 7:30 pm
Total accumulated debt was 131 per cent of Canadian household income last year after income tax and transfers such as child benefits. That’s up from 91 per cent in 1990, Sauve says.
Up 91% since 1990? I can believe that Vancouverites have high levels of debt, but 131% for all Canadians?!? Thats insane. People living off debt better hope interest rates don’t drift up. Why are debt levels so high even in places with better incomes and lower cost of living than Van?
February 17th, 2008 at 4:46 pm
It depends on how you define things Freako. How about MEDIAN real estate will never outpace inflation in the long term.
Also, I don’t think densification pushes up the price of homes, just of land. And, even then only at specific times in specific areas.
February 17th, 2008 at 4:38 pm
Andreas,
I didn’t mean to be ‘hating’.
I just wanted to point out that you are familiar from another site.
Noname
February 17th, 2008 at 3:00 pm
Noname: Don’t be hating now
February 17th, 2008 at 2:52 pm
Real Estate in the long run never outgrow inflation.
Yes it does. You are forgetting about densification.
February 17th, 2008 at 11:27 am
Thank you patriotz. Much appreciated.
February 17th, 2008 at 11:13 am
DRachen is right. Real Estate in the long run never outgrow inflation.
February 17th, 2008 at 10:05 am
Drachen:
“I assume you have an interest in disseminating misinformation because you forgot to mention that after the “new high” property prices always fall to (inflation adjusted) almost exactly where they started from.”
The bulls have become a little more subtle and stealthy at disseminating the bs haven’t they?
February 17th, 2008 at 9:45 am
Evergreen:
“The sad (happy to some) truth is that regardless of whether there is a crash or not, historically, in all parts of the world, property prices always tread upwards (to new highs) every 10-15 years.”
I assume you have an interest in disseminating misinformation because you forgot to mention that after the “new high” property prices always fall to (inflation adjusted) almost exactly where they started from. The ONLY exceptions are post WW2 where prices had been at a depressed low since the great depression and they merely normalized and the current run-up which started in the ’80s and has had a few bumps but has yet to return to the trendline.
If you do your homework you’ll find that prices will almost certainly return to around 1/3 of current values. Yes that means that SFH will be in the 275k range once things settle out. Don’t let vested interest people like evergreen tell you otherwise!
The REAL truth is that Real Estate does NOT appreciate over time. They’ve been keeping track for 400 years in Amsterdam, if prices had appreciated even 1% above inflation then adjusted prices would be 52 times what they were 400 years ago. Since wages approximately follow inflation that would mean that a house which half of the population could live in 400 years ago only 1% of the population could afford now.
February 17th, 2008 at 8:28 am
Andreas,
Hey Majin
Noname
February 17th, 2008 at 4:36 am
Oh no doubt. I’m actually pretty good with my money and while I’m going to school I work in a club pulling in 3-5 grand a month, and whatever I have left after rent, bills and my vacation fund, I throw into my investments.
I agree. There is no doubt that I will be able to afford in the future. It’s more about value for money now.
February 17th, 2008 at 2:11 am
It’s sad that once I finish college and become an RN I may look for a different area to live in if things keep up.
…even if things go bad here, I can’t see prices going back to what they were once before, unless there is some type of earthquake. Because even in a depressed economy there will always be people making money.
Cheer up, life is beautiful. What’s money, anyway?
Still, it’ll be nice to own a home. One sure way of beating the odds (of owning a home) is not only to save, save and save (I recall you’ve got savings of $50,000 – huge for a young person). It’s to make sure that after several years of working, your pay should be at least double to several hundred percent more than your first paycheck. This really happened to a good number of truly hard working people I know. This way it doesn’t matter whether or not the property market crashes. You can well afford to buy.
The sad (happy to some) truth is that regardless of whether there is a crash or not, historically, in all parts of the world, property prices always tread upwards (to new highs) every 10-15 years.
February 17th, 2008 at 1:31 am
I doubt there is a conspiracy of any sort to keep well qualified people from immigrating here
“Never ascribe to malice, that which can be explained by incompetence” – Napoleon.
Canada’s immigration system is not geared toward our biggest need for labour, which is skilled trades. It’s not well geared to labour needs at higher educational levels either. So you get loads of family class immigrants picking fruit and PhD’s driving taxis.
And please don’t just blame the Liberals for it, the Cons have been in charge for 2 years now and they’ve had ample time to fix it.
February 17th, 2008 at 12:44 am
There are still people making money in Detroit, too.
What matters is not that people are working, but what they can afford to buy.
February 17th, 2008 at 12:39 am
Yes but those people have more sophisticated ways to pay for their habits than breaking into your house or car or aggressive panhandling.
February 16th, 2008 at 9:44 pm
Delivery Driver
February 16th, 2008 at 9:34 pm
Sure,I will Stand Tough For U (stfu)in decades to come.
February 16th, 2008 at 9:32 pm
rob,
thanks for the numbers and welcome back to vancouver condo,keep up the good work.
February 16th, 2008 at 9:05 pm
Weekly Numbers
by Rob Chipman
For the week ending February 16 there were 1,394 new listings and 761 sales, for a sell/list of 54.59%.
Average list price was $544,251, while average sales price was $534,313, a difference of $9,938, or 1.83%. Average DOMs was 38.
109, or 14.32% of all sales went over list price. Average list price of overlists was $521,715, while average sale price of over lists was $540,495, an average difference of $18,780, or +3.6%. Average DOMs for overlists was 24. Listed for less than average, sold for more than average, in less time. (Who picked the list price? Did they sell for under or over market?)
Of the overlists, 34 were in Vancouver West, 15 in East Van, 14 in Richmond, 3 in Port Coquitlam, 4 in Port Moody, 4 in New West, 14 in North Van, 6 in Maple Ridge, 8 in Burnaby and 7 in Surrey.
The highest overlist went at 22% over ($306,000/ 9 DOM). The biggest underlist was 17% under (340,000/ 59 DOM)
There were 328 price changes, of which 33, or 10.06, were increases. 89.94% of the price changes were decreases. The average original list price was $591,528, while the average new list price is $576,594, a difference of $14,934, or 2.45%. Average DOM to price change was 54.
The average list price of sales was 92.01% of the average original list price of price changes; the average sales price was 92.67% of the average new price of price changes.
Inventory reached 10,200, of which 2,396, or 23.49%, were over 90s.
2.89% of all active listings in my area had their prices reduced this week.
-A-
From Rob’s blog
February 16th, 2008 at 8:55 pm
nvgirl, take a look at mohican, have never met the guy but he sure knows what he’s talking about….
http://langley-financial-planning.blogspot.com/
February 16th, 2008 at 8:44 pm
From Rob’s BLog,
Some people are banned from his site, he has put on a IP Address blocker, I am able to get through with my FOX program but for some of the bears that can’t:
robchipman { 02.16.08 at 7:25 pm }
From the comments I’m led to believe that the market’s changed substantially and I’ve somehow missed it. Maybe I’m reading them incorrectly, but to quote from an earlier post:
“Sales were essentially the same as January 2007, (1,818 vs 1,806).
New listings rose substantially in January… As a result total active listings rose to 11,203…They were 11,266 in January of 2007…Compared to January of ‘07 the benchmark price is up 15.7% for detached properties, 12.4% for attached properties and 13.8% for apartments”.
Price growth is slowing, marginally. Aside from that I can’t see many indications that this market is headed anywhere in the vicinity of down at present. It will change direction, but it ahsn’t started to do so yet
-A-
Snick, et al, I’ll keep you guys posted.
February 16th, 2008 at 7:25 pm
Ok, it iis a friday free for all.
Open topic.
I need to find a good reputable financial advisor. I need to move some stuff around. Who do you recommend?
I am not touching real asstate.
February 16th, 2008 at 7:16 pm
“Casual Observer – I’ve noticed this too living in richmond, but essentially what happens is we have lax laws to people who have a lot of money, who get immigration if they come here to open a buisness that will hire i believe 6-7 full time employees.”
have you noticed it takes some other immigrants 5 years to get approval? I doubt there is a conspiracy of any sort to keep well qualified people from immigrating here. Some queues are just longer than others, i think. also, checking the “french” box probably was what prompted the language test. what would have happened if he left it blank, i wonder? probably would have spared him the french test. on the other hand, it might have lowered his qualifying points… i’m not sure but i think english tests (toefl) are now required as well… could be wrong though
February 16th, 2008 at 7:00 pm
fascinating read!
http://tinyurl.com/2ezw7z
As a forewarning of events to follow, it is interesting to note that from March 2008, the US government will cease publication of its economic indices for reasons of budgetary constraints
!!
February 16th, 2008 at 6:50 pm
Also like to add, that even if things go bad here, I can’t see prices going back to what they were once before, unless there is some type of earthquake. Because even in a depressed economy there will always be people making money.
February 16th, 2008 at 6:46 pm
Casual Observer – I’ve noticed this too living in richmond, but essentially what happens is we have lax laws to people who have a lot of money, who get immigration if they come here to open a buisness that will hire i believe 6-7 full time employees.
I think someone was on the right track of vancouver being called “hongcouver”. I don’t really care if people take it as being racist. Growing up in richmond and watching the cliques not try to assimilate into canadian culture and essentially take advantage of canada’s healthcare, welfare and social services. I have had friends who work for the government through the CRA and was really suprised to hear how many immigrants come here apply for welfare and every grant they can get, and their children will go to school here while driving a bmw. But what can we do? The birthrate is declining and they have to be lax to immigrants to bring their family here to bring the population up.
As for Vancouver? Like I’ve said in earlier threads. I love this city. I grew up in the east side and even though it was not the best area, It holds a special area in my heart. It’s sad that once I finish college and become an RN I may look for a different area to live in if things keep up.
February 16th, 2008 at 6:34 pm
Not much point Redeye. Our income has only risen at about the same pace as inflation. Just find an inflation adjusted price graph.
February 16th, 2008 at 5:10 pm
redeye – look at the 4th chart down on this page http://tinyurl.com/3yter9
February 16th, 2008 at 4:29 pm
Jesus, will you please STFU.
February 16th, 2008 at 4:27 pm
STFU. Seriously.
February 16th, 2008 at 3:08 pm
Does anyone know where I can find a historcial graph showing the median income in Vancouver vs the median house price. (Similar to the one in the WSJ showing California?)
Thanks
February 16th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
I was a little surprised regarding Canada’s immigration system. A couple of years ago, I met a guy from England. He was a skilled, experienced tradesman in his early forties. He had some money, didn’t have any illnesses, and was quite ambitious. In other words, he was not going to be a drag on our social system. He told me that it took him three years to jump through all the hoops in order to come to Canada.
They even made him take a French exam (which wasn’t a problem because he had lived in France for a few years). He thought that everyone in Canada must be bi-lingual since he had to take a French exam. He was very shocked when I told him that many immigrants that come to Canada don’t even know how to speak English, let alone French. Is it me, or does this not make any sense? Why such scrutiny for a “highly desireable” and employable person, when others who are just going to be a drag on the system seem to get in very easy?
The reason we were talking about this was that he was a little upset because he sold his place in England, expecting to be able to move to B.C., not realizing it was going to take three years to get permission. In the meantime, he missed alot of the upside in the U.K. market, only to move to our province at the apparent peak of ours. He came here on vacation with his wife, and fell in love with our scenery, and decided to move here. Incidentally, he ended up moving back to England after about a year. It seems that he could make alot more money working there (2 – 3 times as much), while it would be very difficult to buy anything worthwhile here on the wages being paid in this province.
February 16th, 2008 at 11:28 am
“If vancouver wants to be a world class city it needs a nickname”
Heard of “Hongcouver”?
February 16th, 2008 at 11:09 am
Good point Drachen, I guess Vancouver does have some nicknames, but I don’t know of anyone outside this city who knows we refer to it as ‘hollywood north’ and I’ve never heard of anyone besides coupland refer to it as ‘city of glass’.
February 16th, 2008 at 10:40 am
They just are——falling off the clips because they don’t have certificates to support their claim over Vancouver.
you guys are failed to prove why some other but not Vancouver but I can show you why it’s Vancouver but not other except some Austrailian cities.
Here are the distinction to call some place a best place on earth and Vancouver got them as following…..
Quality of Living rating: 1.1
Quality of life index: 1%
Stability EIU Rating (out of 5)
Prevalence of petty Crime: 2
Prevalence of violent Crime: 1
Threat of military conflict: 1
Threat of civil unrest/conflict: 1
Threat of terrorism: 1
Stability rating: 1.2
Stability index: 5 per cent
Healthcare
Availability of private healthcare: 1
Quality of private healthcare provision : 1
Availability of public healthcare: 1
Quality of public healthcare provision: 1
Availability of over the counter drugs: 1
General healthcare indicators: 1
Healthcare rating: 1.0
Healthcare index: 0 per cent
Culture & Environment
Climate: Humidity/Temperature rating: 1
Climate: Discomfort to travellers: 1
Cultural hardship: Corruption: 1
Cultural hardship: Social/Religious restrictions: 1
Cultural hardship: Level of censorship Recreation: Sports: 1
Recreation: Culture: 1
Recreation: Food and drink : 1
Availability of consumer goods and services: 1
Culture & Environment rating: 1.0
Culture & Environment index: 0 per cent
Education
Availability of private education: 1
Quality of private education provision: 1
General public education indicators: 1
Education rating: 1.0
Education index: 0%
Infrastructure
Transport: Quality of road network: 1
Transport: Quality of public transport: 1
Transport: Quality of regional or international links: 1
Availability of good quality housing: 1
Utilities: Quality of energy provision: 1
Utilities: Quality of water provision: 1
Utilities: Quality of telecommunications infrastructure: 1
Infrastructure rating: 1.0
Infrastructure index: 0 per cent
where 0 per cent means the city is exceptional and 100 per cent means it is intolerable.
Vancouver attained an overall score of 1.3 per cent thats what makes our city the best place on earth.