Friday Free for All!
Its the weekly news round-up and open topic post for the weekend. Here’s a few stories to get us started:
-Thinner profits predicted for housing developers
-The fine line between journalism and advertising
-Ozzie: Don’t listen to the gloomers
-Buy a condo, get a free flat-screen TV!
-Pre-sale buyers of failed condo will come out ahead
-Developers say its still safe to buy pre-sales
-CBC: Construction receivership stories sought
And last but not least, a new blog to find and share anecdotes about the Vancouver real estate market:
-The Vancouver Real Estate Anecdote Archive!
So what are you seeing out there in the real estate and economics universe? Post your news, links and theories here and have an excellent weekend!
[poll=8]
RSS 2.0 comments feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.
February 28th, 2008 at 11:57 pm
From the CBC article on the Sophia:
“Normally, only between five to 30 per cent of pre-sale buyers plan to live in the condo once it’s built, estimated Gioventu…”
70-95% speculators?!
February 29th, 2008 at 6:31 am
“Normally, only between five to 30 per cent of pre-sale buyers plan to live in the condo once it’s built”
Looks like all the anecdotes on the blogs about condo developments being packed with speculators is closer to fact than I had imagined. The rush to the exits will be brutal.
February 29th, 2008 at 7:04 am
Feeling some pain on Craigslist…
I have 3 suites right now that are still available, they have to get rented ASAP, we just drop the rent on all three of them:
Large 2 bed-2 bath, 1044sf, large balcony, pool, gym, 120 Milross $1800
2 bed 2-bath, Coal Harbor, 1288 ALberni, 865sf, view $1900
Large 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom, Yaletown, 1201 Marinaside, pool, gym $2100
All three have 1 underground parking included.
You know what, they really, really have to go….Lets’ do this….Lease sign for March 1st 2008….1/2 a month free…
February 29th, 2008 at 7:49 am
Ted:
good find!
Does Coal Harbour actually extend across Georgia St. to Alberni St.?
February 29th, 2008 at 7:50 am
I love Friday Free For All! And the new anecdote site looks awesome, great idea!
Ted: I think you came to the wrong place to advertise your suites. If anything, you are proof positive that the market is FINALLY starting to reflect fundamentals. Also, you are a classic example of how and why the market defied logic for as long as it has. Might want to try to sell them if your that desperate. Pocket some profit, nothing wrong with that, otherwise, it could turn out like that pocker hand you should’ve folded and instead you went all in and had an early night.
Am I in a good mood today or what? TGIF! Have a great weekend everyone!
February 29th, 2008 at 8:03 am
Me thinks Ted was merely cutting and pasting an ad from craigslist
February 29th, 2008 at 8:33 am
yes I would say Ted is laughing and cutting and pasting!
February 29th, 2008 at 9:40 am
“Normally, only between five to 30 per cent of pre-sale buyers plan to live in the condo once it’s built, estimated Gioventu…”
C’mon Krisshhh Vancouver is counting on you, spin this…
February 29th, 2008 at 11:02 am
With huge numbers of speculators buying pre-sales and overpriced rental units going begging we’re starting to look like Miami just a few years back. The condo market carnage there is drawing vultures now:
http://www.marketwatch.com/New.....BA05113%7D
but you know, don’t listen to the gloomers!
February 29th, 2008 at 11:18 am
Sorry Lager not Logger I was already writing my response
Tony,
I don’t think it works that way because flipers need some one to buy their units so building assumed to be full occupied in all cases top on that this is a statement so do not bother too much,The soul purpose of building a home is to provide people a place to live anything else does not count so those unit from TED goes on rent or not sell or not that’s his responsibility none of our bussiness right?I never recomend anybody to buy to flip.
anyway some news that cought my intention
USA is not heading for recession-GURU oh sorry that should be Bush,let me fix that
*USA is not heading for recession-BUSH
*British Columbia
How to deal with Labor shortage in bcEmployers from B.C. go recruiting in the East
Strataman,A,
Let me tied my shoe laces I will be back with the script to tie shoe laces in Krrish2
February 29th, 2008 at 11:26 am
Ozzie sez:
“Today’s demographic gurus (“We will no longer want to live in houses”) will also be proved wrong.”
Anybody hear any guru make this crazy claim? What, someone out there is forecasting a bull market in cave dwellings?
That’s getting pretty low, Ozzie. Making up outrageously stupid false “bubble guru” quotes to get the reader to ignore anyone trying to warn them of real problems in the market…
February 29th, 2008 at 11:27 am
Ozzie’s article was an underhanded POS. Essentially he concludes that prolific gloomers have been wrong in the past, so real estate always goes up. Maybe he should google some fo the more successful gloomers, such as Roger Babson. Also, note that “gloom” is a sentiment, not a personality characteristic. Many who are gloomy now weren’t yesterday, and perhaps won’t be tomorrow. He conveniently does a subtle three card monty sleight of hand to equate current those with current negative sentiment with unrelated and mistaken prophets of gloom. Nice try, but A does not equal C. Vancouver is set up for an unprecedented fall, and no amount of fancy penmanship will change that.
February 29th, 2008 at 11:27 am
Oh, my bad, sorry Ted… I’m slow, no coffee in me when I wrote. I get it now. *bows his head in shame*
February 29th, 2008 at 11:28 am
Anybody hear any guru make this crazy claim? What, someone out there is forecasting a bull market in cave dwellings?
That’s getting pretty low, Ozzie.
Yes, it is. There is a name for this fallacious argument, but I am too lazy to look it up. Strawman perhaps?
February 29th, 2008 at 11:30 am
Krisshh why don’t you take your RE evangelism to the US blogs, they could use your outstanding intellectual insight to show them how disillusioned they are…
February 29th, 2008 at 11:46 am
“Krisshh why don’t you take your RE evangelism to the US blogs, they could use your outstanding intellectual insight to show them how disillusioned they are…”
Predicted Krisshh reply:
Why anyone want to live in US? Florida to dangerous from hurricane, California to dangerous from earthquake, and everywhere in US, danger from terrorist.
Vancouver is paradise city in the world, no earthquake, no hurricane, no gun.
February 29th, 2008 at 11:52 am
I’m surprised and disappointed with that Ozzie article. He’s no dummy, but that feelgood puff-piece is astoundingly bad. I’ve read his book and in it he recommends looking at market metrics, being aware of cycles and not going with the crowd, pretty sensible stuff overall and he just blows that all away with this shifty ‘don’t worry’ article.
February 29th, 2008 at 11:59 am
Like I said I think he’s panicking. A real bull wouldn’t bother with that sort of article, who here would bother with looking at this blog if the fundamentals were right? I wouldn’t and I’m a bear now, but if I felt totally secure and had RATIONAL RESEARCH saying my real estate investments could weather most any storm I would not be here. I suspect most bears feel the same?
February 29th, 2008 at 12:00 pm
The ‘still safe to buy presales’ article was written after the Sophia went into receivership, but just before H&H and Garden City did. But don’t worry, I’m sure the developers will still say its safe to buy their product as a pre-sale.
Check out what vanguy found in the Chandler receivership filing:
Did you notice that the receiver will be paying 24% annual interest to the firm providing the financing to finish the project. I based that on 1.9%monthly + 2% fee + 0.5%monitoring fee. They are paying 700K to borrow 3.7M over 7 months to finish the project.
Yeowch! What do developers normally pay for financing, there’s no way they’re all paying 24% per year right?
February 29th, 2008 at 12:04 pm
Sure Strataman, but it still doesn’t make sense – he of all people should know that psychology can easily bring a market above fundamentals, but it can’t keep it there forever.
February 29th, 2008 at 12:20 pm
Snark “Sure Strataman, but it still doesn’t make sense” No it doesn’t; seems out of character actually. I had a fair bit of respect for him until that article. I can only assume hopefully I am wrong that he too is involved in a similar yet undisclosed project. Ozzie why don’t YOU explain?
February 29th, 2008 at 12:31 pm
http://preview.tinyurl.com/2omhsa
Canadian Dollar losing internationally. Dosh? Krsssh? Stocks plummet!
http://preview.tinyurl.com/39p8hs
Dosh? Krsssh? Why we are Vancouver?
February 29th, 2008 at 12:39 pm
“USA is not heading for recession-BUSH”
Yes. “The Iraqis will welcome us with open arms” That Bush? He’s been such a reliable source of information in the past I guess we have no reason to doubt him now right?
And all those PhDs who are saying otherwise… Well we all know who is smarter, all you have to do is look it up on the internets I think it’s listed under “nuculur”.
February 29th, 2008 at 1:00 pm
I had a fair bit of respect for him until that article. I can only assume hopefully I am wrong that he too is involved in a similar yet undisclosed project. Ozzie why don’t YOU explain?
I don’t know about you guys but last time I saw Ozzie in the flesh he didn’t look too long for this world. Maybe he’s just trying to cash in as many chips as he can as even he must know this is the last Hurrah for RE in Vancouver in his lifetime.
February 29th, 2008 at 1:16 pm
http://www.reportonbusiness.co.....bNews/home
February 29th, 2008 at 1:24 pm
“Ozzie’s article was an underhanded POS.”
If Ozzie lived in Japan do you think he’d be writing this article?
I’m surprised Ozzie Jurock would write such an article. Most of his public comments to date have been bullish but very carefully worded. This article contained obvious factual and logical flaws. I’ve disagreed politely with his previous comments but this absosmurfley a POS.
February 29th, 2008 at 2:14 pm
I doubt Vancouver will avoid a major housing crash. The economy there really isn’t much more than construction right now, and a bunch of low paying retail/tourism jobs.
I’m waiting for a housing crash. People think their houses are made of gold. They’re due for a wake up call.
February 29th, 2008 at 2:17 pm
Re: Ted’s three listings.
Those are Rancho’s listings. IMHO the Palisades one (1288 Alberni) could be rented for less ($1800) but the Marinaside one is a good deal for 1,044 sq ft.
That’d be an $850k+ property, if it were on the market but no one wants to pay $2,100 to rent it?
What does this say about this “world class” investment if they can’t even be rented for 1/3 of their carrying costs?
“This investment will gross almost 2% if it’s rented! come on wisemans line up to buy now before the price goes up even more!”
February 29th, 2008 at 3:27 pm
“That’d be an $850k+ property, if it were on the market but no one wants to pay $2,100 to rent it?”
You can always cram more people into a house to cover the ridiculous mortgage payments, but a 2 bd 865-sq ft shoebox?
Why, I do believe we’re running into fundamental limits of the market to bear prices! Who woulda thunk that ability to pay would enter into the equation?
February 29th, 2008 at 3:54 pm
“Today’s demographic gurus (”We will no longer want to live in houses”) will also be proved wrong.”
Anybody hear any guru make this crazy claim? What, someone out there is forecasting a bull market in cave dwellings?
Oh come on, its an exageration and you know it. its the same thing that all of you do with almost every comment and yet when Ozzie does it you get all freaked out? Nice douple standard.
February 29th, 2008 at 4:11 pm
I have to say the latest batch of ads on Craigslist made me laugh out loud.
I mean come on, for what some of these people are asking you could *buy* something really nice in Toronto!
Speaking of which, I was offered a nice 95L/yr job plus expenses to move back. I don’t intend to but it really does look like the best jobs are still in Central Canada….
February 29th, 2008 at 4:16 pm
yet when Ozzie does it you get all freaked out? Nice douple standard.
we trusted Ozzie! he was one of us, until this article….so now he gets lumped in with newsflash, satv, dosh and their ilk….
February 29th, 2008 at 4:34 pm
For those who are locked out of the other blog…..
Inventory in my area is 10,706. Didn’t break 11,000. 34% of poll respondents were off! The next line to watch is March 3, which was picked by 22% of respondents.
Yes at no charge!
February 29th, 2008 at 5:36 pm
scullboy, your story shows exactly why real estate wont go down here. even with a good job offer and lower prices you dont want to move away. you think your the only one who will pay a premium to live here?
February 29th, 2008 at 6:08 pm
Dosh, I guess you are taking about the sandy beaches, the mountains, not much rain, no traffic, no crime etc.
As far as I can tell those things were here during previous busts.
How will the qualities of “thebest place on earth” bs prevent the bust this time?
February 29th, 2008 at 6:57 pm
bdk “Those are Rancho’s listings.” Interesting that; because Rancho does not like doing individual rentals, as they prefer managing the building. They sort of do them as “a favor” for strata board members. They consider individual rentals a waste of time. (I used to be on a strata council that Rancho managed) That would mean a level of desperation by the unit owners I think.
February 29th, 2008 at 7:00 pm
That would mean a level of desperation by the unit owners I think.
might I suggest they lower the rent demanded to find a good tenant?….. nahh that’s too easy
February 29th, 2008 at 7:20 pm
blueskies “nahh that’s too easy” heh heh bet they can’t (afford to) cause the tides going out and they are swimming naked (as Warren Buffet says).
February 29th, 2008 at 8:43 pm
Dosh, your argument proves your parents were a circus gimp and a retard. Were they siblings as well? That would explain a lot.
I’m not moving away because my boyfriend’s in university and doesn’t want to transfer till he’s done.
I’m not taking the job offer because I think I can get a better one. PLUS you friggin’ idiot, just because people WANT to buy a place doesn’t mean they CAN. Even with 40 year mortgages available affordability is at the breaking point you moron. Sooner or later the banks say “sorry”.
I knew when I moved here the housing market was insane. The plan was always to rent a modest place, safe money and wait. I might add my friend, a senior VP at TD believes Vancouverites are insane to pay what they are.
No Dosh, I’m going to wait and watch the housing market collapse JUST LIKE IT HAS EVERYWHERE ELSE ON THE PLANET. And when housing prices are…. oooo… say less than half what they are now, I’ll step in and buy a unit. It’s be just about the day when you say “real estate is a bad investment, you’ll never make money owning a home”.
I’m looking forward to all the sob stories we’ll hear about people losing their homes because they were too damn stupid and greedy to think about risk.
February 29th, 2008 at 8:47 pm
Strataman,
your links somehow goes against you for the following reasons..
1.That show USA is still in better shape,Recently SFmike has mention because of loonie on par some American may feel hesitate to buy in Vancouver,Now you have turn the table around could be sign for next month.
2.it shows stock market tumble,How many time people have to realize R.E.Specially Vancouver is a best Investment.
3.Loonie on par is otherway around than people can shop on this side of border because the january profit in USA come out of high prices of things but sales were low.
Swirlyman,
Thanks to write a response exactly the way it should be,Yes those reasons are registered courtesy of USA even NASA can not control the nature other than some human control nature.
Special Hi-5 to Swirlyman.
February 29th, 2008 at 8:58 pm
Sonika,
Thanks for choosing Vancouver B.C.,Vancouver loves you and this city will hook up more Micheal,Sandra,Monica,Suzuki,Yamaha,etc all over Chilko and Beach Avenue little example from the link.
Ontario workers, Linda Watson bubbled with excitement Wednesday at the prospect of a move out west.
“I think I’m going to love it,” said the Windsor, Ont., woman, She was one of about 750 people who poured into a British Columbia.”I need a change in my life,”-One More Sonika.
Dosh,
Good work!that was good catch.
February 29th, 2008 at 9:20 pm
Krish/rob: I noticed so far you have only 4 comments on the last thread on your blog. Not good, considering you were testing the waters only a week or so ago, to see if people would pay for the stats that other including myself post for free.
It may be a little to early to call the crash, but, it’s not too far.
How many spec condos are you on the hook for?
February 29th, 2008 at 9:21 pm
one of about 750 people who poured into a British Columbia.
what about the 734 people that were flushed out of BC?
you have to jiggle the handle to make it work!
March 1st, 2008 at 12:14 am
Anonymous said:
I do own properties but have no problem seeing them decrease in value
Wow! It’s going to be ugly, and it’s just getting barely started.
The rush to the exits will be brutal.
Just a curious question: Are you planning on selling since you’re convinced of the imminent and brutal crash (maybe, off 40% -50% or more)? That’s some brutal slice off the property values not just a ‘decrease in value’.
March 1st, 2008 at 12:52 am
Thinner profits predicted for housing developers.
“Despite the forecast for more modest price growth in 2008, the pace will still be well above the expected 1.3 per cent rise in the consumer price index.”
“Labour shortages have become Canada-wide, leading to a spike in wages and increased costs for builders, the report said.”
Is anyone out there worried about inflation?
I’ve been waiting for prices to go down to buy a second place (no, not in Vancouver) and am getting a bit anxious as I see prices go up and the listings get fewer and fewer, especially anywhere in rural BC near the Alberta border.
I’m worried that by the end of this year we’ll be facing higher interest rates AND higher prices. The money is still flowing out of the oil patch and putting pressure on prices everywhere.
March 1st, 2008 at 8:39 am
“Yes. “The Iraqis will welcome us with open arms” That Bush? He’s been such a reliable source of information in the past I guess we have no reason to doubt him now right?”
Actually if you look at the early polls in Iraq, as well as the video from the streets, there was a significant welcoming of US intervention. Of course, the bungling of the post-war security frittered much of that away till recently.
As for local real estate, here on the North Shore it’s clear that inventory is up from last year and sales have yet to kick in. I’d be amazed if sales do pick up again but I also think the Vancouver market is unique. Not because of the Olympics, everyone wants to live here shtick, but because a significant share of our economy is largely immune to economic downturns. And of course this part of the economy can’t be tracked by the usual metrics so it’s almost impossible to gauge how it will affect RE this year.
Predictions are pointless. Prices will fall when they fall — if they fall.
March 1st, 2008 at 9:06 am
Satv,Krrish,Rob, or whatever you call yourself now, look, Alberta is competing with those phantom international investors you often mention.
Alberta has it all, even if it’s not as strong as it has been, he says.
“International investors are definitely buying. Calgary and Edmonton real estate is hot in Europe and the U.S., more than I’ve ever seen before in all my years involved in real estate. The top banks in Ireland, for instance, are buying here. They see it as safe, secure and good for the long-term, compared to other options.”
http://www.canada.com/calgaryh.....71e2d15582
You would think there was only one “best place on earth”
And is Alberta running out of land as well?
March 1st, 2008 at 9:24 am
Re Ted’s comment: Craiglist rentals:
Large 2 bed-2 bath, 1044sf, large balcony, pool, gym, 120 Milross $1800
2 bed 2-bath, Coal Harbor, 1288 ALberni, 865sf, view $1900
Large 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom, Yaletown, 1201 Marinaside, pool, gym $2100
That is nice that they want to drop the rent 1/2 in the 1st month, but I still cant afford that. You see, they never gave me any raises that reflect Vancouver rents…
Actually none.. And same goes for my friends and aquintances..no raises.
March 1st, 2008 at 9:27 am
“because a significant share of our economy is largely immune to economic downturns. And of course this part of the economy can’t be tracked by the usual metrics”
Yes, imaginary things do tend to be tough to track.
and by the way, from some of the first post invasion polls:
“Nearly 60 per cent of Iraqis believe that US-led forces were wrong to invade their country”
“More than 80 per cent of Iraqis said they had no confidence in US and British forces. Asked about the presence of these forces in Iraq, 58 per cent opposed it”
“Asked to characterise the forces, 72 per cent called them either occupiers or exploiters”
Doesn’t sound like open arms to me. Instead of just making stuff up that you WANT to believe try checking some actual sources.
March 1st, 2008 at 9:33 am
“but because a significant share of our economy is largely immune to economic downturns.”
Right. I’m assuming this doesn’t count the 10,000 forestry jobs lost due to what? the tooth fairy?
“And of course this part of the economy can’t be tracked by the usual metrics ..”
Since it can’t be tracked, how did you know if it does or doesn’t affect the economy?
March 1st, 2008 at 9:41 am
A,
Don Campbell is right also but their customers are restricted and when buyers realize they have to shovel snow after big spending on investment then those investors trade their properties, change hands for Vancouver because “Vancouver is a place to be”;..
This is good for Investors from with in provinces of Canada, USA,Euorope,and Overseas to come to Vancouver directly, little more expensive if they come through alberta because Snow shoveling is involved unless they transfer themself here to breath little and they are very eager to say ah! ah! ah! ah!hoof! Vancouver B.C.ho!ho!hoop!is bpe.
March 1st, 2008 at 9:50 am
“Don Campbell is right also but their customers are restricted and when buyers realize they have to shovel snow after big spending on investment then those investors trade their properties, change hands for Vancouver because “Vancouver is a place to be”;..
Krrish1/ Rob, Therefore, you think Don is dumb, or is he selling a “snow job”?
March 1st, 2008 at 10:44 am
January resale listings rise everywhere EXCEPT BC. We’re really really different, you know? SO either we peaked last year and didn’t know it (which i doubt), or we’re still going up up up?
Value of major projects in BC rising.
March 1st, 2008 at 10:49 am
Did anyone else go to the seminar at UBC Sauder regarding local real estate? A friend of my wife’s went and apparently the professor who was giving the seminar’s overall message was “If you can wait, wait, if you can sell, sell. If you NEED to invest in real estate do it elsewhere, even Miami is better than here.”
March 1st, 2008 at 11:02 am
A,
That’s needy stuff because worldwide companies have to establish their office in all the stuning cities of the world on any cost and worker always bet on higher rates of pay he is right on restricted way,Vancouver is right on direct/ indirect pull over for quality of life.
March 1st, 2008 at 11:34 am
“Vancouver is a place to be”
For once I can agree on Krrish on something… However I suspect this is a case of the confluence of ignorance, bad grammar, and prolific output randomly creating a phrase that makes sense rather than something intended.
March 1st, 2008 at 11:35 am
“this part of the economy can’t be tracked by the usual metrics so it’s almost impossible to gauge how it will affect RE this year.”
If you are talking about our grow-op industry that serves the US market, consider these factors in the US that will probably hurt BC grow-ops as US grow-ops grow in numbers:
1) Endless empty exurban McMansions
2) Desperate people looking for any kind of income
3) Local police forces facing budget cuts
4) Lack of political will to crack down due to much bigger problems
5) Tighter border security
March 1st, 2008 at 12:03 pm
“Vancouver is right on direct/ indirect pull over for quality of life.” VANCOUVER IS A SWEAT SHIRT?
March 1st, 2008 at 12:04 pm
“Over a period of 30 years [Boivin] has left unpaid creditors with total debts of about $834,000 due to his profligate and utterly irresponsible use of credit or failure to pay taxes,” Blok said.
“While it may not be correct to say that this bankrupt has been ‘a SARS-like presence in the local economic community’ requiring ‘further economic quarantine,’ he has nonetheless had a financially pestilential effect on those unpaid creditors he has left in his wake.”
http://preview.tinyurl.com/2bakl7
Local realtor attempts fourth bankruptcy.
March 1st, 2008 at 12:34 pm
Thanks for mentioning VREAA this week, ‘the pope’.
For those of you who haven’t checked it out, the Vancouver Real Estate Anecdote Archive (VREAA) is a site dedicated to organizing and archiving personal (first and second hand) stories about what people are experiencing regarding the Vancouver RE market.
VREAA has 13 types of threads, for the posting of various types of anecdote. Anecdotes can also be discussed in these threads.
The anecdotes themselves are then archived to pages (sidebarred) so that one can also review collections of anecdotes of various types without any related discussion.
The idea is that we can all use this as an archive, regardless of where we’re doing most of our discussing.
For the record, the moderator of VREAA, using the handle ‘vreaa’, does have their own personal take on the Vancouver RE market, but, in order to be a good archivist, vreaa keeps mum in that regard.
VREAA aims to be as neutral as possible. Like a good library.
vreaa will sometimes transfer stories across from other sites (always citing source), but VREAA is going to largely be dependent on posters.
Please post your own story, or the stories of those around you. Also, please feel free to make any suggestions that may improve the way that VREAA functions.
Thanks,
vreaa
http://vreaa.wordpress.com/
March 1st, 2008 at 12:43 pm
Patiently Waiting, your comments on grow ops in the U.S. are brilliant. Way to think otutside the box.
Firstly the U.S. buys the majority of B.C.’s $7 billion a year in production.
So if the largest consumers of pot can’t afford to buy B.C. bud then they’ll be a fallout.
Interestingly you pointed out that there are U.S. residents who could start growing themselves, with nothing to lose, and undercut the smugglers who’re bringing it into the U.S.
This still pertains to real estate because there are undoubtedly a few “bartenders”, “club owners” or “consruction workers” who’re making huge money growing pot and buying condos or building spec houses with the cash in order to sell it later and launder money.
I’m told that that the biker club , who are just a bunch of good guys who’re not up to anything illegal, are known to buy buildings and then refurbish them to create jobs for themselves ,on paper, and to sell for a profit (even if it’s just on paper) afterwards.
Very interesting Pagtiently Waiting, very interesting, it’s just another good or service that Canada relies on the U.S. to buy.
I was going to ignore Krissh today but have to say one thing.
Do you realise there are no head offces here?
Why is it CIBC will pay their employees double to work in Toronto? It seems that these big companies are disproving your random made up theories that are slipshawed and illogical….
It’s a nice day, see you at stanley park!
March 1st, 2008 at 12:53 pm
Evergreen –
“I do own properties but have no problem seeing them decrease in value”
the other two quotes are from another “Anonymous”, however I also think along the same lines.
I think unlike many here, I was fortunate enough to have had the ability to purchased them around 10-14 years ago. The exception is a purchase approx 4 years ago and it’s increased conservatively by about 35%. This is the one I’m considering to list this spring. However, here’s how crazy the market is..in terms of just values, even if market dropped by 50%, properties I’ve purchased would still be more then I paid except for the latest one.
It’s nuts and I know it. As stated I’m hoping for sanity in market not for me but everyone who wants to be able to afford to live in Vancouver including my daughters. That being said, do I ever think prices of homes will ever be like it was pre 1986 (EXPO)? No I don’t.
March 1st, 2008 at 1:47 pm
Not because of the Olympics, everyone wants to live here shtick, but because a significant share of our economy is largely immune to economic downturns.
I have no idea where you are getting this idea from.
March 1st, 2008 at 2:41 pm
Like I said before Freako, this “unmeasurable” share of our economy that is “largely immune to economic downturns” is the imaginary part of our economy. You know the part that makes all of the fundamentals work out on paper in the current market.
March 1st, 2008 at 4:17 pm
I went out with a group I see every couple of months last night and noticed a change in attitudes from just a few months ago. one person had to do some layoffs recenty and other were worried about the impact the US economy is having here. my US clients have cut wayback recently and it sucks. I was surprised how many people worked in offices that rely on US customers directly. now I guess we have to wait and see if things in the US get better or worse in the short term.
March 1st, 2008 at 6:42 pm
“Inability and unwillingness to lend have now gone global, even affecting commodity countries said to be “immune” from a global slowdown.”
Canada’s Bank of Montreal!
Hmmm don’t they do mortgages in Vancouver?
http://preview.tinyurl.com/d8q6j
March 1st, 2008 at 7:14 pm
Hmmm don’t they do mortgages in Vancouver?
don’t need no stinkin’ mortgage….
got cash?
didn’t think so
March 1st, 2008 at 9:02 pm
Calgary and Edmonton real estate is hot in Europe and the U.S., more than I’ve ever seen before in all my years involved in real estate
Would that be the Calgary that’s down 10% from last summer’s peak, and the Edmonton that’s down 15%, or are there another Calgary and Edmonton I haven’t heard about?
March 1st, 2008 at 10:12 pm
Calgary’s prices have been crawling back up over the last many weeks… but so has inventory (ca n you say sky high?). Perhaps the dead cat mini hop?
What’s going on in Edmonton?
The Fraser Valley should be an eye opener in a couple days.
What a blog this has become. Fantastic!
March 1st, 2008 at 11:23 pm
Calgary’s prices have been crawling back up over the last many weeks… but so has inventory (ca n you say sky high?).
I don’t think their real estate board benchmarks, so it could just be a non-random changes in the sales mix. Don’t know that would cause it, but there are several possibilities. For example, if high end (SFH) sales slowed first, median prices will drop. If the trouble later spreads and leads to slower condo sales, the median price will go up.
March 2nd, 2008 at 1:22 am
Wow, two Anonymous posting in the same blog – talk about having an alter ego.
I was fortunate enough to have had the ability to purchase them around 10-14 years ago.
Good for you! I sold mine years ago when I went elsewhere to work.
do I ever think prices of homes will ever be like it was pre 1986 (EXPO)? No I don’t.
Pre 1986 prices? Snowball’s chance in hell. Even a 50% decline will still see BC and Canadian RE to be pretty expensive compared to many countries because of the strong appreciation of the Canadian dollar. And I truly doubt BC RE will fall more than 20-30%.
March 2nd, 2008 at 1:38 am
CBC STORY—–”How is the softening market affecting you?….What are you hearing about Vancouver’s softening real estate market?”…….
March 2nd, 2008 at 2:04 am
Even a 50% decline will still see BC and Canadian RE to be pretty expensive compared to many countries because of the strong appreciation of the Canadian dollar. And I truly doubt BC RE will fall more than 20-30%.
Please can we dispense with this “compared to other countries” nonsense? What matters is the price compared to local incomes and rents. That takes exchange rates out of the calculation too, BTW. Or just compare against other Canadian cites. They have the same interest rates and similar taxes and incomes.
And the last few posts didn’t indicate whether they were talking about real or nominal prices. Are nominal prices going back to where they were in the 80′s? Of course not. Real prices? If we see a prolonged recession in the US and 80′s interest rates, why not?
But I would not be at all surprised to see another 40+% nominal drop, on condos and other marginal properties at least. That would take us down to the same price/rent and price/income that Toronto has now. And Toronto is not cheap by any standard.
March 2nd, 2008 at 7:15 am
More suffer housing stress
Phillip Coorey Chief Political Correspondent
March 3, 2008
KEVIN RUDD will unveil figures today showing that housing affordability is spiralling out of control, and is hurting those on low and middle incomes the most.
At a keynote speech in Brisbane before tomorrow’s anticipated interest rate rise by the Reserve Bank, the Prime Minister is expected to unveil further measures to try to improve housing affordability.
March 2nd, 2008 at 9:19 am
Do you realise there are no head offces here?
Bdk,
You are late on this site but we have had disscusion b4 about offices and stuff,I can update you little bit with some copy and paste
There is Toronto, Canada’s financial centre with about 140 million square feet of office space of which 74.4 million is downtown. Then there is Calgary, a boom town by any measure, where world demand for energy is creating a rush to add to its existing stock of 47.8 million square feet of office space. Finally, there is Vancouver. Surrounded on three sides by water, that city offers 38.8 million square feet in total with slim prospects for adding more downtown.
What binds them together is seven years of economic prosperity, which has led to office vacancy rates in the low single digits and the prospect for rental increases higher than anything seen so far this decade.
In Vancouver the impact has been quite dramatic.
“We have seen rents increase about 40 per cent over the last 48 months,”
V Special
———
Vancouver’s downtown office vacancy rate should shrink to 2.1 per cent, the lowest central-core vacancy rate in the country by the end of 2008.
March 2nd, 2008 at 9:29 am
Canada’s Bank of Montreal! Hmmm don’t they do mortgages in Vancouver?
Strataman,
you have got an answer in the sense of question it self BOM is still exist because of Vancouver and Success of Canadian real estate.
Coast Capital posts record $58.6-million profitSmall but a bank on only this side of border
March 2nd, 2008 at 11:03 am
Krrish1, a yes or no reply will suffice.
Are Vancouverites experiencing inflation right now?
March 2nd, 2008 at 11:13 am
“And I truly doubt BC RE will fall more than 20-30%.”
Opinions are like… You know. Any facts or factoids to back up your rhetoric? 65% drop or bust baby! (based on past bubbles, wages/housing prices and P/E ratios) In real terms we will see ’80s pricing again although that may just be the bottom of the trough and it may settle 10-15% higher than inflation adjusted ’80s prices (which would be in the 250-300 range for median SFH right now).
“Coast Capital posts record $58.6-million profit”
Didn’t all the American banks post record profits immediately prior to the collapse? Refresh my memory here Krrish.
March 2nd, 2008 at 11:29 am
Okay Krissh and Douche, what large corporation has head offices offices in New York, London and Vancouver?
You just pointed out that Vancouver has 1/3 the office space, thanks for making my point for me.
March 2nd, 2008 at 11:31 am
ooops sorry broke the rules:
1 link per posting:
http://tinyurl.com/27e6td
2 more to follow
March 2nd, 2008 at 11:31 am
the Prime Minister is expected to unveil further measures to try to improve housing affordability.
Now what would that be?
Mortgage interest deductibility?
Down payment assistance?
Insuring 100% financing?
Here’s some free advice, Kevin. You can end the affordability problem without spending any tax money:
Just get on the TV and tell the country that anyone who spends more to buy a house than it does to rent it is a fool, that Oz is in a housing bubble as big as the US, and it will collapse the same as the US, and that the government will offer no assistance to people unable to make their mortgage payments or underwater on their houses, nor will it offer any assistance to banks in trouble due to irresponsible mortgage lending.
Your move.
March 2nd, 2008 at 11:32 am
banks take hit on asset base
less capital available for lending
http://tinyurl.com/ysqbx5
how is this going to prolong our
run up in prices?… it ain’t
2 of 3
March 2nd, 2008 at 11:33 am
banks take hit on asset base
less capital available for lending
http://tinyurl.com/2b5aya
how is this going to prolong our
run up in prices?… it ain’t
3 of 3
March 2nd, 2008 at 12:37 pm
The friday Vancouver Sun (Feb 29 2008) had a front page article ‘Poker Nation’ that featured 24yr old Kyle Wilson of White Rock, who bought a $1.5 Million home with his (tax-free) poker winnings.
Excerpted and archived at VREAA.
March 2nd, 2008 at 5:23 pm
“blueskies { 03.02.08 at 4:43 pm } What do you think?
After the big 5 Cdn banks post their numbers
(red is the new black) i can see them being
much more cautious on the lending side.
less money to lend, tighter credit standards and
more stringent appraisals would lead to a slower
housing market… seeing as how most purchases
are financed.
got cash?”
Blueskies: You make a good point, too bad you made it on a bad blog.
A couple of builders go into receivership, blame higher costs, causes a fracas, and its plastered all over the two daily rags,
The real story is when people go to renew their mortgages and the banks will tell their customers that the cost of money has gone up and can no longer offer the low single digit rates because the bond holders are demanding double digits.
Those who have to renew the 40 year mortgage will have to sign up for the 60year…I guess.
March 2nd, 2008 at 5:41 pm
-A-
good point on the mortgage renewal hell!
as far as i know a mortgage is ultimately a demand loan and can be called in at any time.
if things go sour in the North American financial markets there could be a ‘little’ pain as banks scramble to get cash to shore up their balance sheets….
in the future i’ll post on the other blog as -a-
March 2nd, 2008 at 5:47 pm
According to StatsCan, the GVRD is the head office location for ~10% of the 500 largest Canadian companies. That’s a bit higher than I would have expected – however there is only from the top 50 which is a little more in line with my perceptions.
March 2nd, 2008 at 6:26 pm
I have posted the inventory charts for Feb
http://paul-northvancouverhomes.blogspot.com/
March 2nd, 2008 at 6:48 pm
paul:
bearish chart!
gimme a “B”
gimme an “A”
gimme an “R”
gimme an “E”
dare to be bare!
wait… that didn’t come out right
March 2nd, 2008 at 6:49 pm
Australia’s housing market plunges
Mar 3, 2008 8:19 AM
Australia is also being hit by a plummeting housing market.
Some homeowners in Sydney’s outer suburbs are losing $450 a week off the value of their property.
New figures show some houses have lost 40% of their value since the peak in the property boom in 2004.
Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd will unveil a plan on Monday for families suffering mortgage stress.
Rudd says housing will be a greater priority than it was under the coalition government.
March 2nd, 2008 at 7:17 pm
a snip from GATA -
Jim Rogers – who co-founded the now closed Quantum Fund with George Soros – told 750 global fund managers in Tokyo today that, America is “completely out of control”, there will be a 20-year bull market in commodities and that prices will be in turmoil.
And he also warned that it “made sense” if global competition for resources ended in armed conflict.
Mr Rogers told delegates to the CLSA investment forum that the prices of all agricultural products would “explode” in coming years and that the price of gold, which hit an all-time high of $964 an ounce yesterday, will continue its surge to as much as $3,500 an ounce.
Gold would continue to rise, the analyst Christopher Wood told fund managers, “because it is the exact opposite of a structured finance product”.
In a blistering attack on US monetary policy and the “helicopter cash drop” responses of the Federal Reserve, Mr Rogers described the American dollar as a “terribly flawed currency”.
March 2nd, 2008 at 7:19 pm
March 2nd, 2008 at 7:20 pm
Why gold can hit 10,000.00
March 2nd, 2008 at 7:36 pm
“in the future i’ll post on the other blog as -a-”
Blueskies, too funny, watch out for the mad dogs!
March 2nd, 2008 at 8:16 pm
Why gold can hit 10,000.00
same reason DIJA woulda hit 36,000 just a couple of years ago….. look how that turned out.
March 2nd, 2008 at 8:58 pm
I’m waiting for more of these stories to show up in the MSM as far as companies having trouble attracting and keeping employees due to affordability. Not exactly “corporate” but still interesting possible consequence of declining affordability.
http://tinyurl.com/2zkrw4
March 2nd, 2008 at 11:57 pm
Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd will unveil a plan on Monday for families suffering mortgage stress.
Hey wait a minute. If the problem in Oz is that housing is unaffordable, aren’t falling prices the solution? How can affordability and falling prices both be problems at the same time?
What does “mortgage stress” have to do with falling prices? The price you paid for your house is either affordable or it isn’t, regardless of whether prices go up, go down, or stay the same.
People who buy at historically low interest rates and then get into trouble when rates go up have nobody but themselves to blame. Nobody forced then to buy a house.
Who benefits by keeping “owners” making payments on houses with falling values?
Where have I heard this song before?
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:05 am
What matters is the price compared to local incomes and rents.
The notion of a constant one-to-one relationship between income and RE price across time is no longer useful compared to say, the pre-80s. Population has boomed (natural and immigration) and Canadian real estate is up for grabs for investment both locally and globally.
Further, there are now mortgages which allow for more than one income to be combined and there is also available 40 year amortization. These ‘creative’ mortgage packages mask the real relation between income and RE price. Until these factors are teased out it’s simplistic to just adjust property prices for the compounded, annualised inflation rates to determine the ‘real’ price.
In future, if not already, one may just talk about ‘affordability’ (see Jadeeast’s post for link) rather than adjusted or real prices because it will be accepted that RE prices have moved beyond the reach of the average income earner, something unthinkable in the pre-80s.
Here’s a previous post from bdk:
In the 1970’s cashiers were making $30k+ a year and could buy a house in Dunbar for $50,000…Now that same cashier making $50k would be looking at a minimum of $1.2 million to buy the same house.
How have wages risen here?
Maybe, you can comment.
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:15 am
ReductiMat,
YES
Yes there is Inflationary presure in Vancouver like any other stunning cities of the world, because of competition world it is hard to see any down turn,in lots of sectors rates of pay also keeping up with inflation,I can see more than 85% people are in good condition 15% on the bottom line are too common, rents are also affordable and people can easy adjust them self just by moving to suitable places.I can write down a book but let me finish here and yes one complaint for sure, your question was not appropriate as Vancouverites it makes sense otherwise you should have keep Vancouver out of question then I was able to answer more sufficiently -anyway nice to read you after long time…..
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:26 am
Evergreen,
well said as usual,
world is like throw your money to watch the show no money ok go home.
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:38 am
“And I truly doubt BC RE will fall more than 20-30%.”
Opinions are like… You know. Any facts or factoids to back up your rhetoric?
You’re correct, it’s only an opinion. I’ve relied on two major sources:
1. Paulb’s Numbers
I’ve followed Paulb’s Numbers daily for some time. My interpretation might be very wrong, but the numbers tell me there is underlying strength in the market. There has been no hint that RE prices will retreat by at least one-third, something which should have happened well before now given the slew of bad news in the past several months (plus typical end-year sales slowdown). On the contrary, prices are still (very) high, at worst only an average 10% off new highs. Btw, it doesn’t matter whether these prices are nominal or real. These are numbers compared to those only four or five years ago.
2. DJIA
I’ve monitored the DJIA daily for the past 20 years so I’ve some idea of its movements. Despite the tsunami of bad news for the US, right now it’s only about 10-15% off its all time high (14,000 points). By now, it should have already tested the 10,000 or at least 11,000 point level using the principle of minimum one-third retracement in a bad market. But, it never went below 12,000 points. To me then, the underlying strength of the Dow seems intact. I’ll be very foolish now and predict that the Dow will hit a new high by late summer. This means that US property prices will bottom out by winter 08 and see a recovery in early 2009.
Naturally, when the numbers from the two sources take a decisive turn (one-third retracement) for the worse, my perceptions will change accordingly.
65% drop or bust baby! (based on past bubbles, wages/housing prices and P/E ratios)
That would be really nice, but I doubt it.
March 3rd, 2008 at 6:17 am
Evergreem, or should I say Everhopeful:
“The notion of a constant one-to-one relationship between income and RE price across time is no longer useful compared to say, the pre-80s. Population has boomed (natural and immigration) and Canadian real estate is up for grabs for investment both locally and globally”
I think the paradigm shift argument has been used before –it’s different this time right?, And the population explosion argument has bald tires, and has little traction.
What you have left is the creative financing which is blowing up everywhere in much more populated cities than Vancouver.
I have a feeling, yes just a feeling, no science based research like yours, that when the bubble finally pops in Vancouver, our market was fuelled by irrational buyers, accommodated by cheap money.
50% drop from the peak is not far fetched.
March 3rd, 2008 at 6:23 am
Update on “Decoupling Theory”
Canada’s Economy slows as Expors fall
http://tinyurl.com/3alngu
March 3rd, 2008 at 6:33 am
Even better
B.C.’s boom doesn’t echo in the outskirts
http://tinyurl.com/33mxoj
March 3rd, 2008 at 6:44 am
How de coupled can our economy be when in fact Greenspan had control of our monetary policy by proxy for almost 20 years?
Bank of Canada has been just a rubber stamp.
March 3rd, 2008 at 7:18 am
Evengreen,
Stop smoking weed. Your not making sense. The market will crash. No ifs or buts. No justifying. Too much negativity. US is not going to recover. It’s got a long way down.
March 3rd, 2008 at 8:31 am
Evergreen,
It sounds like your argument is “It should have gone down by now but because it hasn’t gone down, it will not”.
..that’s just retarded
March 3rd, 2008 at 8:53 am
Can somebody tell me why commodities would skyrocket in a recession economy? Gold, maybe as people fear inflation, but other commodities? Doesn’t recession = lack of demand = lower prices?
March 3rd, 2008 at 9:38 am
Evergreen
“the numbers tell me there is underlying strength in the market.”
Ahh, are you off your meds again? Numbers don’t talk man. And you haven’t provided anything substantial about how you chose to interpret the numbers and on what basis you’re throwing out all historical data prior to the mid ’80s. Are you really saying that 40 year mortgages and partner mortgages will weigh more heavily than the introduction of mortgages? Because that had no impact on RE prices. Think about it, you’re going from no mortgages to mortgages in the recorded history of real estate. IT HAD NO IMPACT.
You’re a loon. Go back on your meds and start experiencing the real world again.
As for the DJIA why not start quoting RE prices in India like Krrish? “Prices are falling in the states but the DJIA is not falling therefore prices won’t fall here?” Does that accurately paraphrase what you’re trying to say?
And your last feeble gasp, “Prices won’t fall because they haven’t fallen yet.” That’s really as pathetic as it gets, it stands to reason you’re immortal then because you haven’t died yet.
March 3rd, 2008 at 9:40 am
commodities would skyrocket in a recession economy?
one possibility is wheat and other feed grains
another is potash, critical fertilizer ingredient
gotta eat you know!
March 3rd, 2008 at 9:40 am
Warren:
During economic turmoil investors like to shift their money to “hard” assets. It happens every recession.
March 3rd, 2008 at 10:33 am
Can somebody tell me why commodities would skyrocket in a recession economy? Gold, maybe as people fear inflation, but other commodities? Doesn’t recession = lack of demand = lower prices?
I thought this was the beauty of stagflation; where we get the worst of both worlds. Sky-rocketing costs coupled with less ability to pay for it. Apparently, both stagnation (recession) and inflation can be caused by inappropriate macroeconomic policies.
Maybe we could just pretend we are dealing with a sane economy.
March 3rd, 2008 at 10:34 am
Really? How did that strategy work out in 1990? 1982?
Or 1929?
March 3rd, 2008 at 10:38 am
“Doesn’t recession = lack of demand = lower prices?”
It depends on a lot of factors. As an example, look at Florida construction: excess inventory and no demand yet builders still have projects they are trying to complete! Huge deflation because suppliers don’t scale back and demand low and going lower.
Oil is an imperfect example of the contrary, where supply can be changed relatively quickly and keep prices from deflating (though there are a LOT of other factors that make this an imperfect example).
Agriculturals are something different. It appears like increased demand and supply shocks are driving up prices. That and speculation. Peak food, anyone?
“During economic turmoil investors like to shift their money to “hard” assets. It happens every recession.”
It’s an interesting exercise to look at historical commodity prices.
March 3rd, 2008 at 10:38 am
Above comment was meant for Drachen’s post.
As for stagflation, don’t assume that just because the US seems headed for it, Canada is too. Canada has nothing to gain from inflation, and lots to lose, in both the public and private sectors.
March 3rd, 2008 at 10:39 am
I can comment on the cashier point I made earlier.
I was basing it on a random stat I remembered from first or second year Economics class, that housing had gone up at a ratio of 3 to 1 versus income since 1970 and a cashier I knew who worked at the same grocery store from the late 60′s to the end of the 90′s compared with the prices of houses in the area where she lived.
The problem with having this argument everyday is idiots like Krissh haven’t seen how fast “specuvestor” sentiment changes. 95% of Sophia buyers were speculators, I’m guessing 75% of downtown (that means we need 7,500 buyers who earn $300k per year to suddenly move here).
Krissh must’ve moved here from Kazakhstan in 2003, and missed the previous ten years of flat prices because he thinks past performance indicates future return.
I may not have posted on here until recently but I have been reading several blogs for years, I studied business in post secondary and have worked in the industry so i like to think I have something to offer.
If anyone could bring valid points on why it’s a good idea to buy right now (at the top) please post them.
Krissh you have nothing valid to say so this is not an invitation for you to post more verbal diarrhea
Vancouver is a great city, and our tourism proves this but there are a lot of real world class cities for the big boys with big money to throw around, it’s arrogant to presume Vancouver is the best place on earth simply because we were born here( except for Krissh who’s spelling indicates he did not grow up here).
March 3rd, 2008 at 11:09 am
As for stagflation, don’t assume that just because the US seems headed for it, Canada is too.
Yeah, I know, we are singularly different.
Canada has nothing to gain from inflation, and lots to lose, in both the public and private sectors.
Frankly, I can’t name any nation that has anything to gain by rampant inflation. Can you? It’s not as though any populace got together and voted, “Yes. We need more monetary expansion”.
March 3rd, 2008 at 12:13 pm
Patriotz:
I didn’t say it was smart, it’s just what happens most of the time. Investors for the most part are about as bright as Randallbard, so they invest in “gold” because it’s the gold standard right?
March 6th, 2008 at 7:53 pm
Warren
“A condition of slow economic growth and relatively high unemployment – a time of stagnation – accompanied by a rise in prices, or inflation.
Investopedia Says… Stagflation occurs when the economy isn’t growing but prices are, which is not a good situation for a country to be in. This happened to a great extent during the 1970s, when world oil prices rose dramatically, fueling sharp inflation in developed countries. For these countries, including the U.S., stagnation increased the inflationary effects.”
March 6th, 2008 at 7:58 pm
Drachen
Gold is going to $1,650 within the next 12 months. Buy some today or lose out on easy money. BTW, what would YOU invest in now? This should be interesting to hear.
Oh yes most investors are just like me, making about 5 to 10 grand
.
.
.
.
.
.PER DAY
March 29th, 2008 at 1:56 pm
You guys are hilarious! Ozzie published almost the exact same piece in 1998 “A Case of the Yeah, Buts” http://www2.jurock.com/insider.....mp;id=1153
He’s toying with you gloomy guses! Too funny!