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March 1st, 2008 at 9:33 am
“but because a significant share of our economy is largely immune to economic downturns.”
Right. I’m assuming this doesn’t count the 10,000 forestry jobs lost due to what? the tooth fairy?
“And of course this part of the economy can’t be tracked by the usual metrics ..”
Since it can’t be tracked, how did you know if it does or doesn’t affect the economy?
March 1st, 2008 at 9:27 am
“because a significant share of our economy is largely immune to economic downturns. And of course this part of the economy can’t be tracked by the usual metrics”
Yes, imaginary things do tend to be tough to track.
and by the way, from some of the first post invasion polls:
“Nearly 60 per cent of Iraqis believe that US-led forces were wrong to invade their country”
“More than 80 per cent of Iraqis said they had no confidence in US and British forces. Asked about the presence of these forces in Iraq, 58 per cent opposed it”
“Asked to characterise the forces, 72 per cent called them either occupiers or exploiters”
Doesn’t sound like open arms to me. Instead of just making stuff up that you WANT to believe try checking some actual sources.
March 1st, 2008 at 9:24 am
Re Ted’s comment: Craiglist rentals:
Large 2 bed-2 bath, 1044sf, large balcony, pool, gym, 120 Milross $1800
2 bed 2-bath, Coal Harbor, 1288 ALberni, 865sf, view $1900
Large 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom, Yaletown, 1201 Marinaside, pool, gym $2100
That is nice that they want to drop the rent 1/2 in the 1st month, but I still cant afford that. You see, they never gave me any raises that reflect Vancouver rents…
Actually none.. And same goes for my friends and aquintances..no raises.
March 1st, 2008 at 9:06 am
Satv,Krrish,Rob, or whatever you call yourself now, look, Alberta is competing with those phantom international investors you often mention.
Alberta has it all, even if it’s not as strong as it has been, he says.
“International investors are definitely buying. Calgary and Edmonton real estate is hot in Europe and the U.S., more than I’ve ever seen before in all my years involved in real estate. The top banks in Ireland, for instance, are buying here. They see it as safe, secure and good for the long-term, compared to other options.”
http://www.canada.com/calgaryh.....71e2d15582
You would think there was only one “best place on earth”
And is Alberta running out of land as well?
March 1st, 2008 at 8:39 am
“Yes. “The Iraqis will welcome us with open arms” That Bush? He’s been such a reliable source of information in the past I guess we have no reason to doubt him now right?”
Actually if you look at the early polls in Iraq, as well as the video from the streets, there was a significant welcoming of US intervention. Of course, the bungling of the post-war security frittered much of that away till recently.
As for local real estate, here on the North Shore it’s clear that inventory is up from last year and sales have yet to kick in. I’d be amazed if sales do pick up again but I also think the Vancouver market is unique. Not because of the Olympics, everyone wants to live here shtick, but because a significant share of our economy is largely immune to economic downturns. And of course this part of the economy can’t be tracked by the usual metrics so it’s almost impossible to gauge how it will affect RE this year.
Predictions are pointless. Prices will fall when they fall — if they fall.
March 1st, 2008 at 12:52 am
Thinner profits predicted for housing developers.
“Despite the forecast for more modest price growth in 2008, the pace will still be well above the expected 1.3 per cent rise in the consumer price index.”
“Labour shortages have become Canada-wide, leading to a spike in wages and increased costs for builders, the report said.”
Is anyone out there worried about inflation?
I’ve been waiting for prices to go down to buy a second place (no, not in Vancouver) and am getting a bit anxious as I see prices go up and the listings get fewer and fewer, especially anywhere in rural BC near the Alberta border.
I’m worried that by the end of this year we’ll be facing higher interest rates AND higher prices. The money is still flowing out of the oil patch and putting pressure on prices everywhere.
March 1st, 2008 at 12:14 am
Anonymous said:
I do own properties but have no problem seeing them decrease in value
Wow! It’s going to be ugly, and it’s just getting barely started.
The rush to the exits will be brutal.
Just a curious question: Are you planning on selling since you’re convinced of the imminent and brutal crash (maybe, off 40% -50% or more)? That’s some brutal slice off the property values not just a ‘decrease in value’.
February 29th, 2008 at 9:21 pm
one of about 750 people who poured into a British Columbia.
what about the 734 people that were flushed out of BC?
you have to jiggle the handle to make it work!
February 29th, 2008 at 9:20 pm
Krish/rob: I noticed so far you have only 4 comments on the last thread on your blog. Not good, considering you were testing the waters only a week or so ago, to see if people would pay for the stats that other including myself post for free.
It may be a little to early to call the crash, but, it’s not too far.
How many spec condos are you on the hook for?
February 29th, 2008 at 8:58 pm
Sonika,
Thanks for choosing Vancouver B.C.,Vancouver loves you and this city will hook up more Micheal,Sandra,Monica,Suzuki,Yamaha,etc all over Chilko and Beach Avenue little example from the link.
Ontario workers, Linda Watson bubbled with excitement Wednesday at the prospect of a move out west.
“I think I’m going to love it,” said the Windsor, Ont., woman, She was one of about 750 people who poured into a British Columbia.”I need a change in my life,”-One More Sonika.
Dosh,
Good work!that was good catch.
February 29th, 2008 at 8:47 pm
Strataman,
your links somehow goes against you for the following reasons..
1.That show USA is still in better shape,Recently SFmike has mention because of loonie on par some American may feel hesitate to buy in Vancouver,Now you have turn the table around could be sign for next month.
2.it shows stock market tumble,How many time people have to realize R.E.Specially Vancouver is a best Investment.
3.Loonie on par is otherway around than people can shop on this side of border because the january profit in USA come out of high prices of things but sales were low.
Swirlyman,
Thanks to write a response exactly the way it should be,Yes those reasons are registered courtesy of USA even NASA can not control the nature other than some human control nature.
Special Hi-5 to Swirlyman.
February 29th, 2008 at 8:43 pm
Dosh, your argument proves your parents were a circus gimp and a retard. Were they siblings as well? That would explain a lot.
I’m not moving away because my boyfriend’s in university and doesn’t want to transfer till he’s done.
I’m not taking the job offer because I think I can get a better one. PLUS you friggin’ idiot, just because people WANT to buy a place doesn’t mean they CAN. Even with 40 year mortgages available affordability is at the breaking point you moron. Sooner or later the banks say “sorry”.
I knew when I moved here the housing market was insane. The plan was always to rent a modest place, safe money and wait. I might add my friend, a senior VP at TD believes Vancouverites are insane to pay what they are.
No Dosh, I’m going to wait and watch the housing market collapse JUST LIKE IT HAS EVERYWHERE ELSE ON THE PLANET. And when housing prices are…. oooo… say less than half what they are now, I’ll step in and buy a unit. It’s be just about the day when you say “real estate is a bad investment, you’ll never make money owning a home”.
I’m looking forward to all the sob stories we’ll hear about people losing their homes because they were too damn stupid and greedy to think about risk.
February 29th, 2008 at 7:20 pm
blueskies “nahh that’s too easy” heh heh bet they can’t (afford to) cause the tides going out and they are swimming naked (as Warren Buffet says).
February 29th, 2008 at 7:00 pm
That would mean a level of desperation by the unit owners I think.
might I suggest they lower the rent demanded to find a good tenant?….. nahh that’s too easy
February 29th, 2008 at 6:57 pm
bdk “Those are Rancho’s listings.” Interesting that; because Rancho does not like doing individual rentals, as they prefer managing the building. They sort of do them as “a favor” for strata board members. They consider individual rentals a waste of time. (I used to be on a strata council that Rancho managed) That would mean a level of desperation by the unit owners I think.
February 29th, 2008 at 6:08 pm
Dosh, I guess you are taking about the sandy beaches, the mountains, not much rain, no traffic, no crime etc.
As far as I can tell those things were here during previous busts.
How will the qualities of “thebest place on earth” bs prevent the bust this time?
February 29th, 2008 at 5:36 pm
scullboy, your story shows exactly why real estate wont go down here. even with a good job offer and lower prices you dont want to move away. you think your the only one who will pay a premium to live here?
February 29th, 2008 at 4:34 pm
For those who are locked out of the other blog…..
Inventory in my area is 10,706. Didn’t break 11,000. 34% of poll respondents were off! The next line to watch is March 3, which was picked by 22% of respondents.
Yes at no charge!
February 29th, 2008 at 4:16 pm
yet when Ozzie does it you get all freaked out? Nice douple standard.
we trusted Ozzie! he was one of us, until this article….so now he gets lumped in with newsflash, satv, dosh and their ilk….
February 29th, 2008 at 4:11 pm
I have to say the latest batch of ads on Craigslist made me laugh out loud.
I mean come on, for what some of these people are asking you could *buy* something really nice in Toronto!
Speaking of which, I was offered a nice 95L/yr job plus expenses to move back. I don’t intend to but it really does look like the best jobs are still in Central Canada….
February 29th, 2008 at 3:54 pm
“Today’s demographic gurus (”We will no longer want to live in houses”) will also be proved wrong.”
Anybody hear any guru make this crazy claim? What, someone out there is forecasting a bull market in cave dwellings?
Oh come on, its an exageration and you know it. its the same thing that all of you do with almost every comment and yet when Ozzie does it you get all freaked out? Nice douple standard.
February 29th, 2008 at 3:27 pm
“That’d be an $850k+ property, if it were on the market but no one wants to pay $2,100 to rent it?”
You can always cram more people into a house to cover the ridiculous mortgage payments, but a 2 bd 865-sq ft shoebox?
Why, I do believe we’re running into fundamental limits of the market to bear prices! Who woulda thunk that ability to pay would enter into the equation?
February 29th, 2008 at 2:17 pm
Re: Ted’s three listings.
Those are Rancho’s listings. IMHO the Palisades one (1288 Alberni) could be rented for less ($1800) but the Marinaside one is a good deal for 1,044 sq ft.
That’d be an $850k+ property, if it were on the market but no one wants to pay $2,100 to rent it?
What does this say about this “world class” investment if they can’t even be rented for 1/3 of their carrying costs?
“This investment will gross almost 2% if it’s rented! come on wisemans line up to buy now before the price goes up even more!”
February 29th, 2008 at 2:14 pm
I doubt Vancouver will avoid a major housing crash. The economy there really isn’t much more than construction right now, and a bunch of low paying retail/tourism jobs.
I’m waiting for a housing crash. People think their houses are made of gold. They’re due for a wake up call.
February 29th, 2008 at 1:24 pm
“Ozzie’s article was an underhanded POS.”
If Ozzie lived in Japan do you think he’d be writing this article?
I’m surprised Ozzie Jurock would write such an article. Most of his public comments to date have been bullish but very carefully worded. This article contained obvious factual and logical flaws. I’ve disagreed politely with his previous comments but this absosmurfley a POS.
February 29th, 2008 at 1:16 pm
http://www.reportonbusiness.co.....bNews/home
February 29th, 2008 at 1:00 pm
I had a fair bit of respect for him until that article. I can only assume hopefully I am wrong that he too is involved in a similar yet undisclosed project. Ozzie why don’t YOU explain?
I don’t know about you guys but last time I saw Ozzie in the flesh he didn’t look too long for this world. Maybe he’s just trying to cash in as many chips as he can as even he must know this is the last Hurrah for RE in Vancouver in his lifetime.
February 29th, 2008 at 12:39 pm
“USA is not heading for recession-BUSH”
Yes. “The Iraqis will welcome us with open arms” That Bush? He’s been such a reliable source of information in the past I guess we have no reason to doubt him now right?
And all those PhDs who are saying otherwise… Well we all know who is smarter, all you have to do is look it up on the internets I think it’s listed under “nuculur”.
February 29th, 2008 at 12:31 pm
http://preview.tinyurl.com/2omhsa
Canadian Dollar losing internationally. Dosh? Krsssh? Stocks plummet!
http://preview.tinyurl.com/39p8hs
Dosh? Krsssh? Why we are Vancouver?
February 29th, 2008 at 12:20 pm
Snark “Sure Strataman, but it still doesn’t make sense” No it doesn’t; seems out of character actually. I had a fair bit of respect for him until that article. I can only assume hopefully I am wrong that he too is involved in a similar yet undisclosed project. Ozzie why don’t YOU explain?
February 29th, 2008 at 12:04 pm
Sure Strataman, but it still doesn’t make sense – he of all people should know that psychology can easily bring a market above fundamentals, but it can’t keep it there forever.
February 29th, 2008 at 12:00 pm
The ‘still safe to buy presales’ article was written after the Sophia went into receivership, but just before H&H and Garden City did. But don’t worry, I’m sure the developers will still say its safe to buy their product as a pre-sale.
Check out what vanguy found in the Chandler receivership filing:
Did you notice that the receiver will be paying 24% annual interest to the firm providing the financing to finish the project. I based that on 1.9%monthly + 2% fee + 0.5%monitoring fee. They are paying 700K to borrow 3.7M over 7 months to finish the project.
Yeowch! What do developers normally pay for financing, there’s no way they’re all paying 24% per year right?
February 29th, 2008 at 11:59 am
Like I said I think he’s panicking. A real bull wouldn’t bother with that sort of article, who here would bother with looking at this blog if the fundamentals were right? I wouldn’t and I’m a bear now, but if I felt totally secure and had RATIONAL RESEARCH saying my real estate investments could weather most any storm I would not be here. I suspect most bears feel the same?
February 29th, 2008 at 11:52 am
I’m surprised and disappointed with that Ozzie article. He’s no dummy, but that feelgood puff-piece is astoundingly bad. I’ve read his book and in it he recommends looking at market metrics, being aware of cycles and not going with the crowd, pretty sensible stuff overall and he just blows that all away with this shifty ‘don’t worry’ article.
February 29th, 2008 at 11:46 am
“Krisshh why don’t you take your RE evangelism to the US blogs, they could use your outstanding intellectual insight to show them how disillusioned they are…”
Predicted Krisshh reply:
Why anyone want to live in US? Florida to dangerous from hurricane, California to dangerous from earthquake, and everywhere in US, danger from terrorist.
Vancouver is paradise city in the world, no earthquake, no hurricane, no gun.
February 29th, 2008 at 11:30 am
Krisshh why don’t you take your RE evangelism to the US blogs, they could use your outstanding intellectual insight to show them how disillusioned they are…
February 29th, 2008 at 11:28 am
Anybody hear any guru make this crazy claim? What, someone out there is forecasting a bull market in cave dwellings?
That’s getting pretty low, Ozzie.
Yes, it is. There is a name for this fallacious argument, but I am too lazy to look it up. Strawman perhaps?
February 29th, 2008 at 11:27 am
Oh, my bad, sorry Ted… I’m slow, no coffee in me when I wrote. I get it now. *bows his head in shame*
February 29th, 2008 at 11:27 am
Ozzie’s article was an underhanded POS. Essentially he concludes that prolific gloomers have been wrong in the past, so real estate always goes up. Maybe he should google some fo the more successful gloomers, such as Roger Babson. Also, note that “gloom” is a sentiment, not a personality characteristic. Many who are gloomy now weren’t yesterday, and perhaps won’t be tomorrow. He conveniently does a subtle three card monty sleight of hand to equate current those with current negative sentiment with unrelated and mistaken prophets of gloom. Nice try, but A does not equal C. Vancouver is set up for an unprecedented fall, and no amount of fancy penmanship will change that.
February 29th, 2008 at 11:26 am
Ozzie sez:
“Today’s demographic gurus (“We will no longer want to live in houses”) will also be proved wrong.”
Anybody hear any guru make this crazy claim? What, someone out there is forecasting a bull market in cave dwellings?
That’s getting pretty low, Ozzie. Making up outrageously stupid false “bubble guru” quotes to get the reader to ignore anyone trying to warn them of real problems in the market…
February 29th, 2008 at 11:18 am
Sorry Lager not Logger I was already writing my response
Tony,
I don’t think it works that way because flipers need some one to buy their units so building assumed to be full occupied in all cases top on that this is a statement so do not bother too much,The soul purpose of building a home is to provide people a place to live anything else does not count so those unit from TED goes on rent or not sell or not that’s his responsibility none of our bussiness right?I never recomend anybody to buy to flip.
anyway some news that cought my intention
USA is not heading for recession-GURU oh sorry that should be Bush,let me fix that
*USA is not heading for recession-BUSH
*British Columbia
How to deal with Labor shortage in bcEmployers from B.C. go recruiting in the East
Strataman,A,
Let me tied my shoe laces I will be back with the script to tie shoe laces in Krrish2
February 29th, 2008 at 11:02 am
With huge numbers of speculators buying pre-sales and overpriced rental units going begging we’re starting to look like Miami just a few years back. The condo market carnage there is drawing vultures now:
http://www.marketwatch.com/New.....BA05113%7D
but you know, don’t listen to the gloomers!
February 29th, 2008 at 9:40 am
“Normally, only between five to 30 per cent of pre-sale buyers plan to live in the condo once it’s built, estimated Gioventu…”
C’mon Krisshhh Vancouver is counting on you, spin this…
February 29th, 2008 at 8:33 am
yes I would say Ted is laughing and cutting and pasting!
February 29th, 2008 at 8:03 am
Me thinks Ted was merely cutting and pasting an ad from craigslist
February 29th, 2008 at 7:50 am
I love Friday Free For All! And the new anecdote site looks awesome, great idea!
Ted: I think you came to the wrong place to advertise your suites. If anything, you are proof positive that the market is FINALLY starting to reflect fundamentals. Also, you are a classic example of how and why the market defied logic for as long as it has. Might want to try to sell them if your that desperate. Pocket some profit, nothing wrong with that, otherwise, it could turn out like that pocker hand you should’ve folded and instead you went all in and had an early night.
Am I in a good mood today or what? TGIF! Have a great weekend everyone!
February 29th, 2008 at 7:49 am
Ted:
good find!
Does Coal Harbour actually extend across Georgia St. to Alberni St.?
February 29th, 2008 at 7:04 am
Feeling some pain on Craigslist…
I have 3 suites right now that are still available, they have to get rented ASAP, we just drop the rent on all three of them:
Large 2 bed-2 bath, 1044sf, large balcony, pool, gym, 120 Milross $1800
2 bed 2-bath, Coal Harbor, 1288 ALberni, 865sf, view $1900
Large 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom, Yaletown, 1201 Marinaside, pool, gym $2100
All three have 1 underground parking included.
You know what, they really, really have to go….Lets’ do this….Lease sign for March 1st 2008….1/2 a month free…
February 29th, 2008 at 6:31 am
“Normally, only between five to 30 per cent of pre-sale buyers plan to live in the condo once it’s built”
Looks like all the anecdotes on the blogs about condo developments being packed with speculators is closer to fact than I had imagined. The rush to the exits will be brutal.
February 28th, 2008 at 11:57 pm
From the CBC article on the Sophia:
“Normally, only between five to 30 per cent of pre-sale buyers plan to live in the condo once it’s built, estimated Gioventu…”
70-95% speculators?!