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March 3rd, 2008 at 2:26 am
Evergreen,
well said as usual,
world is like throw your money to watch the show no money ok go home.
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:15 am
ReductiMat,
YES
Yes there is Inflationary presure in Vancouver like any other stunning cities of the world, because of competition world it is hard to see any down turn,in lots of sectors rates of pay also keeping up with inflation,I can see more than 85% people are in good condition 15% on the bottom line are too common, rents are also affordable and people can easy adjust them self just by moving to suitable places.I can write down a book but let me finish here and yes one complaint for sure, your question was not appropriate as Vancouverites it makes sense otherwise you should have keep Vancouver out of question then I was able to answer more sufficiently -anyway nice to read you after long time…..
March 3rd, 2008 at 2:05 am
What matters is the price compared to local incomes and rents.
The notion of a constant one-to-one relationship between income and RE price across time is no longer useful compared to say, the pre-80s. Population has boomed (natural and immigration) and Canadian real estate is up for grabs for investment both locally and globally.
Further, there are now mortgages which allow for more than one income to be combined and there is also available 40 year amortization. These ‘creative’ mortgage packages mask the real relation between income and RE price. Until these factors are teased out it’s simplistic to just adjust property prices for the compounded, annualised inflation rates to determine the ‘real’ price.
In future, if not already, one may just talk about ‘affordability’ (see Jadeeast’s post for link) rather than adjusted or real prices because it will be accepted that RE prices have moved beyond the reach of the average income earner, something unthinkable in the pre-80s.
Here’s a previous post from bdk:
In the 1970’s cashiers were making $30k+ a year and could buy a house in Dunbar for $50,000…Now that same cashier making $50k would be looking at a minimum of $1.2 million to buy the same house.
How have wages risen here?
Maybe, you can comment.
March 2nd, 2008 at 11:57 pm
Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd will unveil a plan on Monday for families suffering mortgage stress.
Hey wait a minute. If the problem in Oz is that housing is unaffordable, aren’t falling prices the solution? How can affordability and falling prices both be problems at the same time?
What does “mortgage stress” have to do with falling prices? The price you paid for your house is either affordable or it isn’t, regardless of whether prices go up, go down, or stay the same.
People who buy at historically low interest rates and then get into trouble when rates go up have nobody but themselves to blame. Nobody forced then to buy a house.
Who benefits by keeping “owners” making payments on houses with falling values?
Where have I heard this song before?
March 2nd, 2008 at 8:58 pm
I’m waiting for more of these stories to show up in the MSM as far as companies having trouble attracting and keeping employees due to affordability. Not exactly “corporate” but still interesting possible consequence of declining affordability.
http://tinyurl.com/2zkrw4
March 2nd, 2008 at 8:16 pm
Why gold can hit 10,000.00
same reason DIJA woulda hit 36,000 just a couple of years ago….. look how that turned out.
March 2nd, 2008 at 7:36 pm
“in the future i’ll post on the other blog as -a-”
Blueskies, too funny, watch out for the mad dogs!
March 2nd, 2008 at 7:20 pm
Why gold can hit 10,000.00
March 2nd, 2008 at 7:19 pm
March 2nd, 2008 at 7:17 pm
a snip from GATA -
Jim Rogers – who co-founded the now closed Quantum Fund with George Soros – told 750 global fund managers in Tokyo today that, America is “completely out of control”, there will be a 20-year bull market in commodities and that prices will be in turmoil.
And he also warned that it “made sense” if global competition for resources ended in armed conflict.
Mr Rogers told delegates to the CLSA investment forum that the prices of all agricultural products would “explode” in coming years and that the price of gold, which hit an all-time high of $964 an ounce yesterday, will continue its surge to as much as $3,500 an ounce.
Gold would continue to rise, the analyst Christopher Wood told fund managers, “because it is the exact opposite of a structured finance product”.
In a blistering attack on US monetary policy and the “helicopter cash drop” responses of the Federal Reserve, Mr Rogers described the American dollar as a “terribly flawed currency”.
March 2nd, 2008 at 6:49 pm
Australia’s housing market plunges
Mar 3, 2008 8:19 AM
Australia is also being hit by a plummeting housing market.
Some homeowners in Sydney’s outer suburbs are losing $450 a week off the value of their property.
New figures show some houses have lost 40% of their value since the peak in the property boom in 2004.
Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd will unveil a plan on Monday for families suffering mortgage stress.
Rudd says housing will be a greater priority than it was under the coalition government.
March 2nd, 2008 at 6:48 pm
paul:
bearish chart!
gimme a “B”
gimme an “A”
gimme an “R”
gimme an “E”
dare to be bare!
wait… that didn’t come out right
March 2nd, 2008 at 6:26 pm
I have posted the inventory charts for Feb
http://paul-northvancouverhomes.blogspot.com/
March 2nd, 2008 at 5:47 pm
According to StatsCan, the GVRD is the head office location for ~10% of the 500 largest Canadian companies. That’s a bit higher than I would have expected – however there is only from the top 50 which is a little more in line with my perceptions.
March 2nd, 2008 at 5:41 pm
-A-
good point on the mortgage renewal hell!
as far as i know a mortgage is ultimately a demand loan and can be called in at any time.
if things go sour in the North American financial markets there could be a ‘little’ pain as banks scramble to get cash to shore up their balance sheets….
in the future i’ll post on the other blog as -a-
March 2nd, 2008 at 5:23 pm
“blueskies { 03.02.08 at 4:43 pm } What do you think?
After the big 5 Cdn banks post their numbers
(red is the new black) i can see them being
much more cautious on the lending side.
less money to lend, tighter credit standards and
more stringent appraisals would lead to a slower
housing market… seeing as how most purchases
are financed.
got cash?”
Blueskies: You make a good point, too bad you made it on a bad blog.
A couple of builders go into receivership, blame higher costs, causes a fracas, and its plastered all over the two daily rags,
The real story is when people go to renew their mortgages and the banks will tell their customers that the cost of money has gone up and can no longer offer the low single digit rates because the bond holders are demanding double digits.
Those who have to renew the 40 year mortgage will have to sign up for the 60year…I guess.
March 2nd, 2008 at 12:37 pm
The friday Vancouver Sun (Feb 29 2008) had a front page article ‘Poker Nation’ that featured 24yr old Kyle Wilson of White Rock, who bought a $1.5 Million home with his (tax-free) poker winnings.
Excerpted and archived at VREAA.
March 2nd, 2008 at 11:33 am
banks take hit on asset base
less capital available for lending
http://tinyurl.com/2b5aya
how is this going to prolong our
run up in prices?… it ain’t
3 of 3
March 2nd, 2008 at 11:32 am
banks take hit on asset base
less capital available for lending
http://tinyurl.com/ysqbx5
how is this going to prolong our
run up in prices?… it ain’t
2 of 3
March 2nd, 2008 at 11:31 am
the Prime Minister is expected to unveil further measures to try to improve housing affordability.
Now what would that be?
Mortgage interest deductibility?
Down payment assistance?
Insuring 100% financing?
Here’s some free advice, Kevin. You can end the affordability problem without spending any tax money:
Just get on the TV and tell the country that anyone who spends more to buy a house than it does to rent it is a fool, that Oz is in a housing bubble as big as the US, and it will collapse the same as the US, and that the government will offer no assistance to people unable to make their mortgage payments or underwater on their houses, nor will it offer any assistance to banks in trouble due to irresponsible mortgage lending.
Your move.
March 2nd, 2008 at 11:31 am
ooops sorry broke the rules:
1 link per posting:
http://tinyurl.com/27e6td
2 more to follow
March 2nd, 2008 at 11:29 am
Okay Krissh and Douche, what large corporation has head offices offices in New York, London and Vancouver?
You just pointed out that Vancouver has 1/3 the office space, thanks for making my point for me.
March 2nd, 2008 at 11:13 am
“And I truly doubt BC RE will fall more than 20-30%.”
Opinions are like… You know. Any facts or factoids to back up your rhetoric? 65% drop or bust baby! (based on past bubbles, wages/housing prices and P/E ratios) In real terms we will see ’80s pricing again although that may just be the bottom of the trough and it may settle 10-15% higher than inflation adjusted ’80s prices (which would be in the 250-300 range for median SFH right now).
“Coast Capital posts record $58.6-million profit”
Didn’t all the American banks post record profits immediately prior to the collapse? Refresh my memory here Krrish.
March 2nd, 2008 at 11:03 am
Krrish1, a yes or no reply will suffice.
Are Vancouverites experiencing inflation right now?
March 2nd, 2008 at 9:29 am
Canada’s Bank of Montreal! Hmmm don’t they do mortgages in Vancouver?
Strataman,
you have got an answer in the sense of question it self BOM is still exist because of Vancouver and Success of Canadian real estate.
Coast Capital posts record $58.6-million profitSmall but a bank on only this side of border
March 2nd, 2008 at 9:19 am
Do you realise there are no head offces here?
Bdk,
You are late on this site but we have had disscusion b4 about offices and stuff,I can update you little bit with some copy and paste
There is Toronto, Canada’s financial centre with about 140 million square feet of office space of which 74.4 million is downtown. Then there is Calgary, a boom town by any measure, where world demand for energy is creating a rush to add to its existing stock of 47.8 million square feet of office space. Finally, there is Vancouver. Surrounded on three sides by water, that city offers 38.8 million square feet in total with slim prospects for adding more downtown.
What binds them together is seven years of economic prosperity, which has led to office vacancy rates in the low single digits and the prospect for rental increases higher than anything seen so far this decade.
In Vancouver the impact has been quite dramatic.
“We have seen rents increase about 40 per cent over the last 48 months,”
V Special
———
Vancouver’s downtown office vacancy rate should shrink to 2.1 per cent, the lowest central-core vacancy rate in the country by the end of 2008.
March 2nd, 2008 at 7:15 am
More suffer housing stress
Phillip Coorey Chief Political Correspondent
March 3, 2008
KEVIN RUDD will unveil figures today showing that housing affordability is spiralling out of control, and is hurting those on low and middle incomes the most.
At a keynote speech in Brisbane before tomorrow’s anticipated interest rate rise by the Reserve Bank, the Prime Minister is expected to unveil further measures to try to improve housing affordability.
March 2nd, 2008 at 2:04 am
Even a 50% decline will still see BC and Canadian RE to be pretty expensive compared to many countries because of the strong appreciation of the Canadian dollar. And I truly doubt BC RE will fall more than 20-30%.
Please can we dispense with this “compared to other countries” nonsense? What matters is the price compared to local incomes and rents. That takes exchange rates out of the calculation too, BTW. Or just compare against other Canadian cites. They have the same interest rates and similar taxes and incomes.
And the last few posts didn’t indicate whether they were talking about real or nominal prices. Are nominal prices going back to where they were in the 80′s? Of course not. Real prices? If we see a prolonged recession in the US and 80′s interest rates, why not?
But I would not be at all surprised to see another 40+% nominal drop, on condos and other marginal properties at least. That would take us down to the same price/rent and price/income that Toronto has now. And Toronto is not cheap by any standard.
March 2nd, 2008 at 1:38 am
CBC STORY—–”How is the softening market affecting you?….What are you hearing about Vancouver’s softening real estate market?”…….
March 2nd, 2008 at 1:22 am
Wow, two Anonymous posting in the same blog – talk about having an alter ego.
I was fortunate enough to have had the ability to purchase them around 10-14 years ago.
Good for you! I sold mine years ago when I went elsewhere to work.
do I ever think prices of homes will ever be like it was pre 1986 (EXPO)? No I don’t.
Pre 1986 prices? Snowball’s chance in hell. Even a 50% decline will still see BC and Canadian RE to be pretty expensive compared to many countries because of the strong appreciation of the Canadian dollar. And I truly doubt BC RE will fall more than 20-30%.
March 1st, 2008 at 11:23 pm
Calgary’s prices have been crawling back up over the last many weeks… but so has inventory (ca n you say sky high?).
I don’t think their real estate board benchmarks, so it could just be a non-random changes in the sales mix. Don’t know that would cause it, but there are several possibilities. For example, if high end (SFH) sales slowed first, median prices will drop. If the trouble later spreads and leads to slower condo sales, the median price will go up.
March 1st, 2008 at 10:12 pm
Calgary’s prices have been crawling back up over the last many weeks… but so has inventory (ca n you say sky high?). Perhaps the dead cat mini hop?
What’s going on in Edmonton?
The Fraser Valley should be an eye opener in a couple days.
What a blog this has become. Fantastic!
March 1st, 2008 at 9:02 pm
Calgary and Edmonton real estate is hot in Europe and the U.S., more than I’ve ever seen before in all my years involved in real estate
Would that be the Calgary that’s down 10% from last summer’s peak, and the Edmonton that’s down 15%, or are there another Calgary and Edmonton I haven’t heard about?
March 1st, 2008 at 7:14 pm
Hmmm don’t they do mortgages in Vancouver?
don’t need no stinkin’ mortgage….
got cash?
didn’t think so
March 1st, 2008 at 6:42 pm
“Inability and unwillingness to lend have now gone global, even affecting commodity countries said to be “immune” from a global slowdown.”
Canada’s Bank of Montreal!
Hmmm don’t they do mortgages in Vancouver?
http://preview.tinyurl.com/d8q6j
March 1st, 2008 at 4:17 pm
I went out with a group I see every couple of months last night and noticed a change in attitudes from just a few months ago. one person had to do some layoffs recenty and other were worried about the impact the US economy is having here. my US clients have cut wayback recently and it sucks. I was surprised how many people worked in offices that rely on US customers directly. now I guess we have to wait and see if things in the US get better or worse in the short term.
March 1st, 2008 at 2:41 pm
Like I said before Freako, this “unmeasurable” share of our economy that is “largely immune to economic downturns” is the imaginary part of our economy. You know the part that makes all of the fundamentals work out on paper in the current market.
March 1st, 2008 at 1:47 pm
Not because of the Olympics, everyone wants to live here shtick, but because a significant share of our economy is largely immune to economic downturns.
I have no idea where you are getting this idea from.
March 1st, 2008 at 12:53 pm
Evergreen –
“I do own properties but have no problem seeing them decrease in value”
the other two quotes are from another “Anonymous”, however I also think along the same lines.
I think unlike many here, I was fortunate enough to have had the ability to purchased them around 10-14 years ago. The exception is a purchase approx 4 years ago and it’s increased conservatively by about 35%. This is the one I’m considering to list this spring. However, here’s how crazy the market is..in terms of just values, even if market dropped by 50%, properties I’ve purchased would still be more then I paid except for the latest one.
It’s nuts and I know it. As stated I’m hoping for sanity in market not for me but everyone who wants to be able to afford to live in Vancouver including my daughters. That being said, do I ever think prices of homes will ever be like it was pre 1986 (EXPO)? No I don’t.
March 1st, 2008 at 12:43 pm
Patiently Waiting, your comments on grow ops in the U.S. are brilliant. Way to think otutside the box.
Firstly the U.S. buys the majority of B.C.’s $7 billion a year in production.
So if the largest consumers of pot can’t afford to buy B.C. bud then they’ll be a fallout.
Interestingly you pointed out that there are U.S. residents who could start growing themselves, with nothing to lose, and undercut the smugglers who’re bringing it into the U.S.
This still pertains to real estate because there are undoubtedly a few “bartenders”, “club owners” or “consruction workers” who’re making huge money growing pot and buying condos or building spec houses with the cash in order to sell it later and launder money.
I’m told that that the biker club , who are just a bunch of good guys who’re not up to anything illegal, are known to buy buildings and then refurbish them to create jobs for themselves ,on paper, and to sell for a profit (even if it’s just on paper) afterwards.
Very interesting Pagtiently Waiting, very interesting, it’s just another good or service that Canada relies on the U.S. to buy.
I was going to ignore Krissh today but have to say one thing.
Do you realise there are no head offces here?
Why is it CIBC will pay their employees double to work in Toronto? It seems that these big companies are disproving your random made up theories that are slipshawed and illogical….
It’s a nice day, see you at stanley park!
March 1st, 2008 at 12:34 pm
Thanks for mentioning VREAA this week, ‘the pope’.
For those of you who haven’t checked it out, the Vancouver Real Estate Anecdote Archive (VREAA) is a site dedicated to organizing and archiving personal (first and second hand) stories about what people are experiencing regarding the Vancouver RE market.
VREAA has 13 types of threads, for the posting of various types of anecdote. Anecdotes can also be discussed in these threads.
The anecdotes themselves are then archived to pages (sidebarred) so that one can also review collections of anecdotes of various types without any related discussion.
The idea is that we can all use this as an archive, regardless of where we’re doing most of our discussing.
For the record, the moderator of VREAA, using the handle ‘vreaa’, does have their own personal take on the Vancouver RE market, but, in order to be a good archivist, vreaa keeps mum in that regard.
VREAA aims to be as neutral as possible. Like a good library.
vreaa will sometimes transfer stories across from other sites (always citing source), but VREAA is going to largely be dependent on posters.
Please post your own story, or the stories of those around you. Also, please feel free to make any suggestions that may improve the way that VREAA functions.
Thanks,
vreaa
http://vreaa.wordpress.com/
March 1st, 2008 at 12:04 pm
“Over a period of 30 years [Boivin] has left unpaid creditors with total debts of about $834,000 due to his profligate and utterly irresponsible use of credit or failure to pay taxes,” Blok said.
“While it may not be correct to say that this bankrupt has been ‘a SARS-like presence in the local economic community’ requiring ‘further economic quarantine,’ he has nonetheless had a financially pestilential effect on those unpaid creditors he has left in his wake.”
http://preview.tinyurl.com/2bakl7
Local realtor attempts fourth bankruptcy.
March 1st, 2008 at 12:03 pm
“Vancouver is right on direct/ indirect pull over for quality of life.” VANCOUVER IS A SWEAT SHIRT?
March 1st, 2008 at 11:35 am
“this part of the economy can’t be tracked by the usual metrics so it’s almost impossible to gauge how it will affect RE this year.”
If you are talking about our grow-op industry that serves the US market, consider these factors in the US that will probably hurt BC grow-ops as US grow-ops grow in numbers:
1) Endless empty exurban McMansions
2) Desperate people looking for any kind of income
3) Local police forces facing budget cuts
4) Lack of political will to crack down due to much bigger problems
5) Tighter border security
March 1st, 2008 at 11:34 am
“Vancouver is a place to be”
For once I can agree on Krrish on something… However I suspect this is a case of the confluence of ignorance, bad grammar, and prolific output randomly creating a phrase that makes sense rather than something intended.
March 1st, 2008 at 11:02 am
A,
That’s needy stuff because worldwide companies have to establish their office in all the stuning cities of the world on any cost and worker always bet on higher rates of pay he is right on restricted way,Vancouver is right on direct/ indirect pull over for quality of life.
March 1st, 2008 at 10:49 am
Did anyone else go to the seminar at UBC Sauder regarding local real estate? A friend of my wife’s went and apparently the professor who was giving the seminar’s overall message was “If you can wait, wait, if you can sell, sell. If you NEED to invest in real estate do it elsewhere, even Miami is better than here.”
March 1st, 2008 at 10:44 am
January resale listings rise everywhere EXCEPT BC. We’re really really different, you know? SO either we peaked last year and didn’t know it (which i doubt), or we’re still going up up up?
Value of major projects in BC rising.
March 1st, 2008 at 9:50 am
“Don Campbell is right also but their customers are restricted and when buyers realize they have to shovel snow after big spending on investment then those investors trade their properties, change hands for Vancouver because “Vancouver is a place to be”;..
Krrish1/ Rob, Therefore, you think Don is dumb, or is he selling a “snow job”?
March 1st, 2008 at 9:41 am
A,
Don Campbell is right also but their customers are restricted and when buyers realize they have to shovel snow after big spending on investment then those investors trade their properties, change hands for Vancouver because “Vancouver is a place to be”;..
This is good for Investors from with in provinces of Canada, USA,Euorope,and Overseas to come to Vancouver directly, little more expensive if they come through alberta because Snow shoveling is involved unless they transfer themself here to breath little and they are very eager to say ah! ah! ah! ah!hoof! Vancouver B.C.ho!ho!hoop!is bpe.