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February 20th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
Interestingly, Elan is now hitting the rental market.
Which leaves brand new unoccupied units at Mode, Spectrum 1,2,3, and 4., Coopers Lookout etc. plus there is now turnover in the newer buildings such as YTP, Hudson etc. and finally the newer units create a vacuum where people vacate older buildings (for example the exodus from the twelve year old 939 homer to the new YTP across the street).
Why do I keep harping about rentals?
Because if “investors” can’t get $1500 per month to offset their $3,000 mortgage it’ll cause the crash to occur faster and also make it even more of a renters market while it happens.
Secondly if the rental market is already saturated ,as badly as it is now, imagine what will happen when another 10,000 units flood the market and the transient construction workers (aka renters who’re paying above market rent right now and also renting hotel suites) move along.
February 20th, 2008 at 11:55 am
For those out there that read the Gartman Letter, I found it interesting in his anecdotal commentary today regarding S. Virginia real estate that he states: “This past weekend, here in southeastern Virginia, where property prices really never soared violently as they did in California, or Nevada, or New York, or Vancouver, we noticed a large number of openly advertised price cuts on new homes for sale.
What? Vancouver lumped in with California, Nevada and New York? But we’re different here right?
I love that we’re getting lumped in with the biggest US bubbles in a globally read financial letter!
February 20th, 2008 at 11:32 am
“We’re off to a big start: 511 new listings over the last two days, and 239 sales, for a sell/list of 46.77%.
Inventory hit 10,358, of which 2,529, or 24.42%, were over 90s”
Just for the bears who are locked out of rob’s blog, but want to know this useless info.
Remember these numbers are completely useless unless we know the numbers behind the numbers.
February 20th, 2008 at 9:37 am
I wish this wasn’t a registration required article (I hate it when they do that), but I remember reading this in the globe and mail a while back:
Canadian officials in Beijing turned blind eye to reports of immigration fraud
Basically a young clerk in a Beijing office reported to canadian officials the practice of requiring young healthy people to get x-rays that are then put into the medical records of people with medical problems who want to move to Canada. Sounds like the Canadian government hasn’t done anything about it.
February 20th, 2008 at 9:36 am
IMHO our medical is a lot more sustainable than the US health care system, on which governments already spend more per capita (I mean total population, not covered population) than in Canada (seriously). And that’s with no boomers drawing (US) Medicare yet.
I also think our major tax paying industries are a lot more sustainable than the US’s. You can’t outsource resource industries and farms, and they produce stuff that the rest of the world wants.
I think finding a job there would be the ‘easiest’ route for a Canadian to move to the US
Indeed it is, but the problem is that except for the NAFTA scheduled occupations, it’s just as easy for a US employer to bring in someone from India (H1B) as from Canada. And they work for a lot less.
February 20th, 2008 at 9:09 am
“The only other thing that is worth staying here for is the medical coverage.” Interesting view, probably correct. Also probably the over riding reason immigrants move here from elsewhere. Often wonder if our medical is sustainable now with our major tax paying industries crashing (possibly long term).
February 20th, 2008 at 8:42 am
Canadians can’t just go and live in a foreign country because they feel like it, doofus.
Ok, it was just a question, no need to get insulting patriotz. I think finding a job there would be the ‘easiest’ route for a Canadian to move to the US, but I don’t have experience with that so I’ll take your word on it.
Your later response about medical insurance is in my eyes the main issue. For younger people the increased cost of private medical insurance is made up for by the lower cost of living, but its trickier for boomers. I think you can live part time in the US and keep your Canadian medical insurance. You’d still have to get travel insurance for the time you’re in the states, but I think this is what many snowbirds do.
Still not sure if that would justify buying a place in the states vs. just renting it while you’re there.
February 19th, 2008 at 11:45 pm
Does anyone knows what’s happening in the Hawaiian property market? You hear of property prices nosediving in most US states but Hawaii seems conspicuously absent. I googled and got this:
Honolulu property market
Seems like at least Honolulu is spared from the subprime plague (perhaps, simply because there’s no need to entice people to buy its coveted real estate). I would jet to Hawaii in a jiffy if I got a green card, work or no work waiting.
February 19th, 2008 at 9:37 pm
Pope “only with a job” I was thinking (do that every so often) if you didn’t have a job and needed one would you move anywhere in the world including Vancouver if you couldn’t get work?
Gdnite!
February 19th, 2008 at 9:14 pm
Cash is King in the Miami Condo Market!
http://tinyurl.com/2s2brl
Looks like a few banks are finally throwing in the towel on the Miami condo market.
February 19th, 2008 at 8:44 pm
HA HA HA Anyone following the latest on that townhouse in Steveston which had a price drop of about 100,000?
Today I walked by it and it looked like a porn star convention with all the glitzy realtors descending on the place in their flashy cars, in fact they were all over the place. Guess it’s their open house day, the day they all try out the beds and then go for lunch or something.
Keep an eye on this place. See if it drops any further by Springtime and then we will know if the hype factor in Vancouver is dying out as I suspect it is.
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And what would a post by me be without this…..?
When the investment world finally wakes up to the shortages, and soaring demand will make it difficult to find any investment silver at any price this side of $100 an ounce.
February 19th, 2008 at 8:35 pm
I can’t imagine them going lower.
Well I think your imagination needs some exercising. You think 2007 was bad? It was just a warmup. The real carnage is yet to come.
February 19th, 2008 at 8:33 pm
How many people on this blog would move to the US if they could immediately get an unrestricted green card and permanent resident rights?”
I could move to the US under NAFTA but there’s one big problem – medical insurance – practically unobtainable at any reasonable price for someone in my age group (boomer). Anyone following the news knows that employers are bailing out of providing it to anyone other than the least risky.
Were that not a problem I’d be happy to live in Seattle, frankly I think it’s a nicer place than Vancouver now, better jobs, lower taxes, and cheaper housing.
February 19th, 2008 at 8:27 pm
The only other thing that is worth staying here for is the medical coverage. That aside I would live in the US in a heartbeat. I have been looking and there are some smoking deals, Phoenix or Vegas are true bargains now. I can’t imagine them going lower. Look on craigslist in Phoenix and take a look.
February 19th, 2008 at 6:44 pm
Thanks Pope! Your article had me thinking mostly negative about buying a house down there but on self examination I realized it was because I would always be a non-resident visitor. Given the green card I’d be down there I’m sure! Interesting to see the results so far!
February 19th, 2008 at 6:25 pm
I would consider it. Especially with half price housing. I could handle living close to the coast in California. Beautiful climate, new political leadership. Why not?
I would miss the 6+ straight months of rain in Vancouver though
February 19th, 2008 at 5:27 pm
Strataman: Done and done, I’ve added a poll to this post.
February 19th, 2008 at 5:24 pm
Krissh/Rob:
I see you realize you are running out of greater fools in the local market and testing the waters for Prince George.
The metrics do seem to pencil out, why don’t you buy it?
February 19th, 2008 at 4:36 pm
What would be an interesting poll would be; How many people on this blog would move to the US if they could immediately get an unrestricted green card and permanent resident rights?” In another words you could go there look for a job take whatever was offered and live there as a legal resident.
February 19th, 2008 at 4:33 pm
A lot of these american cities have higher incomes and lower cost of living than here, not just more sunshine. What is our economy based on? We don’t have many (if any) head offices, the forestry industry is basically shutting down and even though the writers strike is over how many US film productions are going to want to come up here to shoot with the dollar at par?
February 19th, 2008 at 4:23 pm
Douche, who is “Vancouver in specific is what people want.”
Who are these people? Are they the same people who were going to make Miami’s prices skyrocket forever? How about California?
Anyone who has traveled anywhere in the world knows that no one knows where Vancouver is they think we live in Igloo’s in Canada.
I met people in Hawaii 15 years ago who believed me when I said we just got electricity in Canada, these people had no intention of ever visiting Canada, let alone move here.
February 19th, 2008 at 4:20 pm
Just ignore Douche, he’s just Krissh using a spell checker and obviously knows nothing.
No one could actually have been to London or New York and say something that dumb.
He probably has never left the province.
February 19th, 2008 at 4:09 pm
Poor Dosh.
Dude. Seriously. It’s NOT all about demand. “No one wants to live there” is, uh… bullshit plain and simple.
But your opinion is very helpful. It helps me understand the kind of thinking that locals used to drive Vancouver prices to unsustainable highs.
I mean dude… come on. You’re saying more people want to live in Vancouver than NYC? Or London? Seriously, that’s what you think is happening?
Wow… just…wow.
February 19th, 2008 at 4:05 pm
Whoops last anonymous comment was me.
February 19th, 2008 at 3:56 pm
Anonymous “A LOT of immigrants use Canada as a spring bopard to the US. It’s only failing that they stay here. First choice is usually the US.”
Dosh That statement is the honest truth. I work with a whole bunch of Asian investors and residents. They are quite honest in saying they could not get into the US so Canada and Vancouver was the second (runnerup) choice. They are great people but given the opportunity to work in the US as opposed to here they would be gone in a flash. Anywhere in the US!
February 19th, 2008 at 3:51 pm
Nobody wants to live in the US, thats why their prices are down.
Sure! Whatever you say. I’m sure the fact that their prices are down has NOTHING to do with the speculative bubble they’re coming down from. The one that drove prices above affordable fundamentals in a lot of cities, kind of like whats going on in a medium sized city on the west coast of Canada right now…
February 19th, 2008 at 3:46 pm
Dosh is a dumbass so just ignore him. He’s either 14 or a 21 year old high school dropout
February 19th, 2008 at 3:34 pm
Dosh, that’s ignorant.
A LOT of immigrants use Canada as a spring bopard to the US. It’s only failing that they stay here. First choice is usually the US.
I personally would never live there but most people would chose the US over Canada.
You sure it’s Vancouver people want? Regina RE is up 69% in one year. No that’s not a typo. I guess Regina blows Vancouver out of the water?!?!?
February 19th, 2008 at 3:08 pm
Nobody wants to live in the US, thats why their prices are down. Its all about demand, and demand for canadian property, Vancouver in specific is what people want.
February 19th, 2008 at 2:57 pm
bcubbins, Thanks I didn’t realize how highly trained our RE professionals really are!
February 19th, 2008 at 2:55 pm
Boys, boys, as a matter of fact I do spend time downtown 5-6 days a week. In fact I have spent enough time downtown to have witnessed well dressed early 20′s party types stabbing (yeah I witnessed a sweet knife fight not two weeks ago) /pot smoking/pissing/puking/shitting/swearing/spitting etc etc… in/on parkades, parked cars, business frontages, alleys and sidewalks every Friday and Saturday night (sometimes Thursday night too!). I also witnessed this behaviour every Wednesday night at UBC (Pit night!) during my years there. The only difference I can see is the socio-economic standing of the offenders and your bias.
Warren, why does believing that even the worst of the street people or the young people that I refer to above aren’t “non-entities” make me an Olympic clock paint thrower?
Now only two months and counting until I escape from this hick infested backwater!
February 19th, 2008 at 2:16 pm
Tony Danza “Wow Strataman, with attitudes like that toward the less fortunate no wonder we have a world class problem with homelessness” Really? So all street people are poor misguided unfortunates? If you live down here you will soon find some are foul mouthed dirty imbeciles. The one I spoke of chain smokes all day, shits in the parkade, and swears at the women passing by. Whats your address I’ll pay his taxi fare to your place and you can demonstrate what a caring citisen you are!
February 19th, 2008 at 12:09 pm
Wow Tony, I sympathize with Strataman.
Do you spend any time downtown? And I don’t mean throwing paint on the Olympic clock.
February 19th, 2008 at 12:03 pm
Agreed, I treat him just like one of the regular panhandlers that hangs around outside our business…becomes a non-entity that blathers away about something or other and leaves the sidewalk covered with garbage.
Wow Strataman, with attitudes like that toward the less fortunate no wonder we have a world class problem with homelessness and poverty in Vancouver. Here’s hoping that you and yours never end up the shunned “non-entities”.
February 19th, 2008 at 11:55 am
Because unlike doctors or lawyers, REALTORS® are highly trained professionals with impeccable ethical standards. From mls.ca…
February 19th, 2008 at 11:53 am
Why do you say that?
Well because the US is a foreign country and Canadians can’t just go and live in a foreign country because they feel like it, doofus.
It’s a lot harder to immigrate to the US than to Canada – they take way fewer legal immigrants per capita than we do. Very very few Canadians would qualify.
There are also some occupations where Canadians can get work visas under NAFTA, but again that’s a pretty small chunk of the populace.
February 19th, 2008 at 10:50 am
Digi, why don’t you give Rob Chipman a call? I remember reading a while back that he was approached by some agents from the sun belt. He could possibly hook you up with a knowledgeable realtor [why the hell is the correct spelling of realtor capitalized and not lawyer or doctor or teacher or used car salesperson?] who could advise you on a foreign purchase.
February 19th, 2008 at 9:51 am
I agree Warren, I don’t buy into the disaster scenarios. The correction is underway and may last for some time, but the exchange rate is favorable and prices are looking better than here. If you’ve been saving a big downpayment for a vancouver property you’ve got the cash to get a good deal down south.
Anyone know where there is info for Canadians thinking about buying in the US? A list state by state of thinks to consider as a foreign buyer and an update on current market conditions would be ideal.
very few of us have the option of living or working there anyway.
Why do you say that?
February 19th, 2008 at 9:42 am
You’d think North America’s economy was going to become like soviet eastern Europe with the talk around here.
I think there will be a once in a lifetime chance to pick up some US real estate perhaps near the end of 2008. The C$ is, for all purposes, at an all-time high against the US, and they are on their way down to an extreme low in RE. If you ever had thought of retiring in Arizona, Florida, Hawaii, etc., do your research and keep your eyes open.
All other things equal, we’ll probably see the C$ back to 80 cents in 5-10 years, plus a modest rebound in US RE.
February 19th, 2008 at 8:55 am
I must say I really don’t see the relevance of US RE pricing compared to Canada, given very few of us have the option of living or working there anyway.
I thought the main message here is ‘new houses at 50% off’. There are some people here that don’t believe house prices in Vancouver will go down more than 5 or 10% because its ‘unthinkable’. Don’t you think people in southern California thought that a 50% price drop was ‘unthinkable’? Why would anyone have bought one of these houses two years ago if they thought they’d be selling at half the price today?
It goes to show it doesn’t matter what you paid, or what you think your house is worth. Its the buyer that sets the price.
February 19th, 2008 at 8:46 am
pay up!… or else!
http://tinyurl.com/2qtwld
“Already powers are being abused and that is going to get worse because we will have more and more people having their homes broken into by bailiffs,” he warned. “This is happening as debt has increased to record levels.
February 18th, 2008 at 9:15 pm
huh?!!
http://tinyurl.com/2ok3xa
“If the Olympic bid wasn’t happening we would have to invent something.” Poole, chair of the 2010 Vancouver Bid Corp. and noted real estate developer, said in a most telling understatement.
It is hard to imagine any fantasy that fits better than the Olympics bid if you are into real estate development.”
February 18th, 2008 at 8:51 pm
blueskies “wheat ..they aren’t making it anymore” that is amazing..a trend to eat!
Wonder what that will do to the CPI index if it holds?
patrioz “given very few of us have the option of living or working there anyway.” I agree risky business now days to buy there unless you are really flush. State government looking at extreme deficit…would be easy to pass something taxing foreign ownership more than now without losing any votes..I’d stay away unless I was open to losing it all.
February 18th, 2008 at 8:41 pm
Blueskies, Don Coxe has been feveresly pumping this new bubble for over a year now.
February 18th, 2008 at 8:28 pm
wheat ..they aren’t making it anymore
instant bubble!
http://tinyurl.com/29oa2c
At the Minneapolis Grain Exchange, wheat fever pushed prices to $19.80 a bushel in trading Friday – nearly triple the record from 1996.
February 18th, 2008 at 7:44 pm
Satv/Rob:
“British Columbia average price Jan, 2008 $453,648 Jan,2007 $396,132.up 14.5 per cents.”
Fits well with the bs you are peddling now
http://robchipman.net/blog/
February 18th, 2008 at 7:43 pm
other states like California charge a much higher property tax to non-residents.
I don’t think that’s true for California actually. Prop 13 discriminates against new buyers by basing taxes on the price at time of purchase rather than market price. It’s really a Ponzi scheme designed to load tax increases on to new buyers, and will collapse as property values fall.
The SOH scheme in Florida does discriminate against non-residents, and is one reason why the Florida RE market is headed for complete collapse as it is destroying marginal demand in a state where snowbirds drive a large part of the economy.
I must say I really don’t see the relevance of US RE pricing compared to Canada, given very few of us have the option of living or working there anyway. It’s not like the stock market where you can put your money anywhere you want. And US RE would have to get way, way, cheaper to make any sense as an absentee investment.
February 18th, 2008 at 7:41 pm
Comment by dontfeedtheanimals ” don’t rise to the bait. ” Agreed, I treat him just like one of the regular panhandlers that hangs around outside our business…becomes a non-entity that blathers away about something or other and leaves the sidewalk covered with garbage.
February 18th, 2008 at 7:00 pm
Here’s an idea, if you don’t like what Krrsh/SATV/et. al. have to say, don’t rise to the bait.
If you don’t feed the animals, they’ll eventually die.
February 18th, 2008 at 6:56 pm
Yeah Yeah buy in California and please take with you gazzilions of galen of water for rest of your life because they are hardly produce that more on expensive prices and forth coming tanks have been sold in advance so…
“Anyway this side of border without water problem”.
Greater Vancouver-MLS Resale Homes Jan,2008-Jan 2007
Jan,2008 average price $588,183
Jan,2007 $530,695 change% 10.8
Active listing jan,08 9,998
Jan,07 10,015 change %-0.2
Residential Sales to Active Listing Jan,2008 18.6 %Jan,07 18.6 %
British Columbia average price Jan, 2008 $453,648 Jan,2007 $396,132.up 14.5 per cents.