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Vancouver prices edge up in January 2008

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) benchmark price for a home in Vancouver edged up in the first month of 2008 - the new benchmark prices are as follows:

Single Family Home:  $742,490 (+ $12,091)
Attached / Townhouse:  $462,627  (+ $5,686)
Apartment / Condo:   $378,336 (+ $757)

Full stats are available from Paul Boenisch at nvcondos.ca.

In the Fraser Valley prices are down in many areas compared to December 2007, but still up year over year.  An increase in listings has pushed the Fraser Valley into a ‘buyers market’ according to the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board.  Detailed analysis of the Fraser Valley market can be found at the Financial Planning and Personal Sanity blog.

So far the Vancouver real estate market has been remarkably resilient - recession fears, a writers strike, complaints about affordability and markets dropping around the world have not dampened speculation in the Vancouver market.  Will we see a change in 2008 or can we expect to see higher prices in the next 12 months?

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74 Responses to “Vancouver prices edge up in January 2008”

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  1. 1
    Strataman Says:
    February 5th, 2008 at 1:42 pm
    “So far the Vancouver real estate market has been remarkably resilient - recession fears, a writers strike, complaints about affordability and markets dropping around the world have not dampened speculation in the Vancouver market.” Today I thought I would strike up some conversations with a couple of agents and one property manager. The gist of my questions was what do they think about the US recession, and the US housing collapse. I did not insinuate Vancouver might follow, or mention Vancouver for that matter. The answers I got were: I wasn’t aware that housing had collapsed in the US, I did not know about the possible US recession, and one was “what is a recession”? These are people who are quite successfull, and handle other peoples major property decisions. Apparently they are basically innocent ignorants! To be honest I found it hard not to look incredulous! :-) So why is Vancouver not reacting? Probably majority ignorance of world affairs! Apparently Bulls that read blogs like this are a rarity!

    Current score: 0
  2. 2
    Snark Says:
    February 5th, 2008 at 1:54 pm
    “what is a recession”?

    Oh geez. Unless happy thoughts and faith are enough to save us, we’re in more trouble than I thought.

    Current score: 0
  3. 3
    blueskies Says:
    February 5th, 2008 at 2:56 pm
    OK now that’s downright scary

    not even denial just plain ignorance is bliss!

    Current score: 0
  4. 4
    jadeeast Says:
    February 5th, 2008 at 3:04 pm
    You totally haven’t seen the secret yet have you guys??
    You attract what you think about.
    If you don’t think about a recession or a bubble they can’t happen to you.

    Current score: 0
  5. 5
    mohican Says:
    February 5th, 2008 at 3:26 pm
    To add some anecdotes from the Valley, I just spoke to two different people:

    1) Langley resident trying to sell his house but no takers - he is going to cut the price to see if it can attract anyone

    2) Langley real estate agent - business is REALLY slow - this is a normally very busy agent and has seen a fair share of ups and downs so they know what is up

    The “What is a recession?” quote is CLASSIC!! Ignorance is not bliss.

    Current score: 0
  6. 6
    Dignan Says:
    February 5th, 2008 at 3:36 pm
    Anecdotal…..

    MLS®: V669175

    They’ve just reduced the price to $2,988,000, this house sold in May 2005 for 2,600,000. Hmmmm.

    I know another House in Went Van that is selling for the same price it was listed for in 2005 as well.

    Current score: 0
  7. 7
    Ignore the Jackass Says:
    February 5th, 2008 at 3:41 pm
    If ignorance is bliss, than bliss is going to get us into a heap of trouble. Its true that recessions don’t affect everyone equally, so a recession doesn’t necessarily mean ‘you will lose your job and your home’, but to be completely ignorant of the global credit crunch and recession list is just appalling for anyone who makes their living through sales.

    Current score: 0
  8. 8
    Ignore the Jackass Says:
    February 5th, 2008 at 3:43 pm
    Dignan, price compression in action?

    Current score: 0
  9. 9
    scullboy Says:
    February 5th, 2008 at 3:45 pm
    Every time I hear about that stupid book, I imagine beatng the speaker with an oar (except for you, Jade :).

    Let’s test the theory, everyone think “VANCOUVER REAL ESTATE COLLAPSE” as hard as you can. :)

    Current score: 0
  10. 10
    scullboy Says:
    February 5th, 2008 at 3:47 pm
    That’s about a 15% increase in just over 3 years. It would be a healthy amount in a sane market….

    Current score: 0
  11. 11
    scullboy Says:
    February 5th, 2008 at 3:48 pm
    Even if you don’t lose your job and you home, it probably means you won’t be selling your house for double the amount you paid for it this year…..

    Current score: 0
  12. 12
    hughz Says:
    February 5th, 2008 at 4:24 pm
    This just points out that someone needs to do for Vancouver (and maybe the rest of Canada) what Case-Shiller have done for the US.

    I’m really surprised by some of the aggregate numbers on appreciation for attached units that I see. I know of probably a dozen listed on MLS and sold since August 2005 that I have been able to match with subsequent sales (note these are all in Downtown or Yaletown). None of these has registered over 6% appreciation in a given year. But I am looking at pretty specific segment which may not be representative.

    At the same time, I suspect that the numbers on attached units, even the median, are being skewed because of the change in composition towards brand new units.

    Current score: 0
  13. 13
    M- Says:
    February 5th, 2008 at 4:48 pm
    That place in West Van is assessed at $2.67M, though BC Assessment hasn’t recognized that 4 years ago a new house was built.

    Current score: 0
  14. 14
    richard Says:
    February 5th, 2008 at 4:55 pm
    growth in listings outpace sales

    Current score: 0
  15. 15
    paulb Says:
    February 5th, 2008 at 5:42 pm
    That article has a very bearish feel. It is nice to see something besides constant cheerleading. A little balance.

    Thanks for the link Pope. I love this blog! It is getting very busy here :)

    Paul

    Current score: 0
  16. 16
    blueskies Says:
    February 5th, 2008 at 6:02 pm
    “it appears the market is heading toward more balance.”

    famous last words! why i never saw it coming… slapped right upside the head!

    Current score: 0
  17. 17
    Mold City Says:
    February 5th, 2008 at 6:03 pm
    This just points out that someone needs to do for Vancouver (and maybe the rest of Canada) what Case-Shiller have done for the US.

    Oh dare to dream! As long as we’re putting together a wishlist I’d love for Zillow to come to Canada.

    I’m assuming that differences in the way the canadian MLS works (privacy regulation, etc) is the reason we have neither of those.

    Current score: 0
  18. 18
    krrish1 Says:
    February 5th, 2008 at 6:14 pm
    Here not there, I have notice most of new posters are realtors bouncing in here to look what the heck is happening no one is listing their homes.

    Reltors are almost losing their jobs no work and lots of money to send advertisement to all address.

    2) Langley real estate agent - business is REALLY slow - this is a normally very busy agent and has seen a fair share of ups and downs so they know what is up

    why is it Langely real estate agent isn’t this is a part of total package for feb,2008 stat.you do run a financial planing bussiness right? so graph from cmhc and rebgv,fv is your own creation right?all the headlines are also yours.

    Current score: 0
  19. 19
    blueskies Says:
    February 5th, 2008 at 6:17 pm
    buncha rabid dogs on chipmans’ site

    is it full moon or something?

    or has the market turned?

    Current score: 0
  20. 20
    krrish1 Says:
    February 5th, 2008 at 6:19 pm
    JUST ANOTHER EXAMPLE:Prices were and prices are *steel* we are still at rock bottom prices.

    Ultersman,where are you?
    See the last slot was not enough and the next slot won’t be Cheer Up.

    Current score: 0
  21. 21
    patriotz Says:
    February 5th, 2008 at 6:58 pm
    Who needs the MLS? All sales go on the land titles and anyone can look them up for a fee.

    I think it’s just a matter of such an undertaking not being profitable.

    Current score: 0
  22. 22
    freako Says:
    February 5th, 2008 at 7:00 pm
    This just points out that someone needs to do for Vancouver (and maybe the rest of Canada) what Case-Shiller have done for the US.
    …
    I suspect that the numbers on attached units, even the median, are being skewed because of the change in composition towards brand new units.

    Both REBGV and FVREB provide benchmarked prices. These do control for quality, so change in composition should not skew them. Not as good as true apples to apples like CS, but on the other hand they are released a week after the month end, not three months later.

    Current score: 0
  23. 23
    Strataman Says:
    February 5th, 2008 at 7:04 pm
    Decoupling Theory Dead

    The EuroZone Decoupling Theory is now officially dead. The only question now is how big the recession in Europe will be. The US is in recession and it is going to be nasty.
    http://tinyurl.com/d8q6j

    http://tinyurl.com/2l5z47

    China Hongkong indexes tonight, why do they follow US? Because that is the ONLY economy! The rest of us just tag along!
    Where are all those posters that say we are differant don’t need the US? Come out from hiding please?
    Take a look at the TSX, why is it following the US?

    http://tinyurl.com/2u7qnj

    Come on! some answers would be nice?

    Current score: 0
  24. 24
    blueskies Says:
    February 5th, 2008 at 8:44 pm
    the “R” word being bandied about by “economists”

    http://tinyurl.com/28fk4q

    A growing number of top economists believe that the U.S. economy has now toppled into recession.

    Current score: 0
  25. 25
    freako Says:
    February 5th, 2008 at 9:06 pm
    the “R” word being bandied about by “economists”

    Well do you think the fed would have cut 1.25% if it wasn’t? It could also be that the fed is the markets b*tch, but more likely they have better data than we do and truly know how bad it is.

    Current score: 0
  26. 26
    blueskies Says:
    February 5th, 2008 at 9:24 pm
    freako:

    has the bond market priced in a recession going forward?

    Current score: 0
  27. 27
    Michael Randallbard Says:
    February 5th, 2008 at 9:43 pm
    New highs attract new buyers, propelling the market quickly higher

    Current score: 0
  28. 28
    blueskies Says:
    February 5th, 2008 at 9:49 pm
    ummm

    you own gold

    you want us to buy gold

    driving up the value of your stash

    pumping
    pimping
    and humping your stash

    safety deposit box indeedy :-)

    Current score: 0
  29. 29
    Re-diculous Says:
    February 5th, 2008 at 9:54 pm
    Interesting news from afar….

    UK Prices down almost 5 %

    Interesting graphs and commentary here:
    http://ukhousebubble.blogspot......ost-5.html

    …how far behind is our cycle relative to this?

    Current score: 0
  30. 30
    Dosh Says:
    February 5th, 2008 at 10:06 pm
    so prices went down on another continent, isnt this still vancouver? cause people that bought a condo here made money.

    Current score: 0
  31. 31
    Lager not Logger Says:
    February 5th, 2008 at 10:09 pm
    Michael, until I followed your link I thought ‘new highs attract new buyers’ was refering to the vancouver real estate market. After all it sounds like perfect bubble logic.

    Current score: 0
  32. 32
    Lager not Logger Says:
    February 5th, 2008 at 10:11 pm
    Dosh, how did they make money without selling? Are you saying now is the perfect time to sell or you gonna ‘let it ride’?

    Current score: 0
  33. 33
    Michael Randallbard Says:
    February 5th, 2008 at 11:27 pm
    THE JANUARY LOWBALL REPORT

    Current score: 0
  34. 34
    Strataman Says:
    February 6th, 2008 at 6:19 am
    True, if they have sold it; otherwise they have made zip. By the waay you were supposed to phone the TSX and tell them they were not part of the world economy? Would you mind? :-)
    Current score: 0
  35. 35
    Re-diculous Says:
    February 6th, 2008 at 7:10 am
    That’s right Dosh….we’re Vancouver, in all its arrogance, on a different planet from the rest of the world. Nothing anywhere else can effect us, I mean the monutains, the ocean, the olympics, the rain…..

    Current score: 0
  36. 36
    krrish1 Says:
    February 6th, 2008 at 7:47 am
    Where are all those posters that say we are differant don’t need the US? Come out from hiding please?

    Strataman,

    here is one poster to tell you what really making us differant than usa.

    Home Sales and Prices, October 2007
    Year-over-year % change, 3 month avg.
    United States- and Canada+
    New Homes
    SalesU -27% C +14%*
    Prices U-3% C +9%
    Existing Homes
    Sales*U -18% *C+11%
    Prices *U-6% *C+11%

    Source: U.S. NAR, U.S. Commerce Dept., CMHC, CREA

    U.C.we are different here?

    Current score: 0
  37. 37
    Warren Says:
    February 6th, 2008 at 7:55 am
    Michael, I’ll be the first to thank you for not posting another gold link. I hope we hear of some anecdotal lowball reports from Metro Vancouver soon.

    Current score: 0
  38. 38
    Sarah Says:
    February 6th, 2008 at 9:00 am
    Asian markets tumble.

    European markets tumble.

    Us market tumbles.

    Vancouver: everything will remain peachy forever.

    http://www.cbc.ca/canada/briti.....rkets.html

    Current score: 0
  39. 39
    crabman Says:
    February 6th, 2008 at 9:19 am
    You thought our resident troll was posting something relevant to Vancouver RE?!?!? Not a chance!

    Current score: 0
  40. 40
    Tony Danza Says:
    February 6th, 2008 at 9:23 am
    Strataman, Just visit some of the US housing blogs and you’ll see that once this bubble burns out the bulls will be long gone, their internets disconnected by the phone company for non-payment. When things play out the same way here we’ll probably actually miss the idiot bull trolls posting here.

    Current score: 0
  41. 41
    crabman Says:
    February 6th, 2008 at 9:38 am
    I agree with Freako. The REBGV benchmark price is just as good as the CS index (and much more up-to-date). I tracked my DT condo from 2001 until 2006 when I sold, and the increase pretty much tracked the benchmark apartment index.

    I just wish they would keep archives available, and wouldn’t reset the index to 100 every decade.

    Current score: 0
  42. 42
    crabman Says:
    February 6th, 2008 at 9:56 am
    Check out the balls on this flipper!! Bought in June 2006 for $790k, put in hardwood/granite/stainless and is listing for $1,499k!

    Current score: 0
  43. 43
    hughz Says:
    February 6th, 2008 at 10:26 am
    And in one of the more ugly a** buildings in downtown to boot.

    Current score: 0
  44. 44
    The Pope Says:
    February 6th, 2008 at 10:37 am
    Thanks for the link Pope. I love this blog! It is getting very busy here

    Thanks Paul, nice to see you’re sticking around. I really appreciate the work you’re doing to make those stats available, the breakdown by neighborhood is an excellent resource!

    Current score: 0
  45. 45
    The Pope Says:
    February 6th, 2008 at 10:40 am
    Along the same theme: Thank you Mohican for the stats and analysis on the Fraser Valley market! I think you’re both providing a great service to lower mainland market watchers.

    Current score: 0
  46. 46
    jesse Says:
    February 6th, 2008 at 11:10 am
    OT: Mullet on Rob’s blog found this report put out by PH&N. No nation-wide bubble here apparently.

    Current score: 0
  47. 47
    Digi Says:
    February 6th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
    There’s a big difference in house prices across canada, lets not make the mistake of thinking the canadian housing market is in the same position as the vancouver housing market.

    Current score: 0
  48. 48
    Digi Says:
    February 6th, 2008 at 12:53 pm
    That lowball report link is a good one, thanks for being on topic michael. I imagine it would be pretty scary to come across a link like that when you’re trying to sell your house in a down market, what with all of them being at least 25% off the asking price.

    Current score: 0
  49. 49
    Mold City Says:
    February 6th, 2008 at 1:13 pm
    down market? Whats that? Don’t you know real estate only goes up?
    :razz:
    Current score: 0
  50. 50
    Anonymous Says:
    February 6th, 2008 at 1:28 pm
    aha crabman,
    some one making double on your sold unit may be just a reminder for you “summer of 2006″.

    Current score: 0
  51. 51
    blueskies Says:
    February 6th, 2008 at 2:08 pm
    there are two kinds of markets

    rising (up)

    balanced (non up)

    negative sentiment will
    not be entertained!

    Current score: 0
  52. 52
    richard Says:
    February 6th, 2008 at 4:01 pm
    vancouver permits up 30% in 2007

    Current score: 0
  53. 53
    btk Says:
    February 6th, 2008 at 4:13 pm
    Re:#2806-939 Homer.

    The Pinnacle is not only one of the uglier buildings downtown, it’s become quite well known for being over run with trouble makers. The Resident Manager (Marco) was replaced and the next one quit. The building has a lot of damage in the common areas, and one elevator is always broken. Several of the residents I know in that building say there is a problem with drug dealing and that the strata has hired a security guard , part time, to try to combat the problems. On a positive note they say that the pool is looking cleaner lately.

    But hey, buy that unit for $1.495 today and you will be able to sell it for $3 million in two years… Just ask the trolls on this board. Vancouver is different and despite a recession everywhere else Vancouver will only go up forever!

    Current score: 0
  54. 54
    Anon Says:
    February 6th, 2008 at 5:18 pm
    Something I really don’t understand is people who deny the bubble, but bought in 2001-2002. They’re sitting on a potentially fat profit if they sell now and rent for a while. I only know ONE person who did that. Sold there house last year in Richmond and waiting now. They’re going to look like geniuses when they can buy a BETTER house, and located in Vancouver Westside, in a few short years with their profits.

    But no, 99% of people don’t want to take the risk of selling because prices MIGHT double again in the next few years i.e. they will be priced out forever and/or lose out on even more paper profits.

    Current score: 0
  55. 55
    Cympl Says:
    February 6th, 2008 at 6:23 pm
    ” ‘what is a recession’?

    Oh geez. Unless happy thoughts and faith are enough to save us, we’re in more trouble than I thought.”

    I’m guessing 90% of the people who poked fun at this person don’t know that recession is defined as 2 consecutive quarters of GDP decline…I’d rather have someone tell me they don’t know what a recession is than have blow hards tell me we are already in a recession (not possible) or we are heading into a recession (please let me use your crystal ball).

    Current score: 0
  56. 56
    blueskies Says:
    February 6th, 2008 at 6:49 pm
    fascinating read on mortgage debt and that “other” great depression

    http://tinyurl.com/38ckgg

    Current score: 0
  57. 57
    Strataman Says:
    February 6th, 2008 at 6:54 pm
    “we are already in a recession (not possible) or we are heading into a recession” Really? aren’t you the expert. Most all of my friends know the definition of recession, mind you they read as opposed to watching some stupid reality TV. Funny though your saying exactly what all the experts in the states said, nope no possibility of a recession. Do you know our lumber industry is IN recession NOW? Do you? Do you know that 80 cents of every buck anybody in this town makes averaged over the population is Forestry? bet you don’t. Next time you buy of use something just take 80% of the buyers or users away and 80 % of your health care and government services. Blow hards are evident here on this blog your a big one! (Not possible) :-)
    Current score: 0
  58. 58
    blueskies Says:
    February 6th, 2008 at 7:20 pm
    Blow hards are evident here on this blog

    they provide 80% of the heat in here

    good way to stay warm n’toasty :-)

    Current score: 0
  59. 59
    crabman Says:
    February 6th, 2008 at 8:27 pm
    When I lived there, a prostitute was knifed to death on the 10th floor, and the cops shot a drug dealer in the parking garage. Also, some jerk-off would set off the fire alarm about once a month (usually around 11:30PM).

    Oh, and some guys with crowbars once broke into the mail boxes…

    Glad to hear about the pool though!

    Current score: 0
  60. 60
    Re-diculous Says:
    February 6th, 2008 at 8:36 pm
    I seem to recall that Las Vegas was the hottest RE in the US just a few years ago……why rather like Vancouver. Look at it now: “Las Vegas tops Foreclosures list”

    http://money.cnn.com/2008/02/0...../index.htm

    Current score: 0

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