What caused the Vancouver real estate boom?
Speculation: Prices are going up, therefore prices will go up. Get in before you’re priced out forever. Its the only way to get really rich without even trying. Prices are practically guaranteed to go up forever. This time its different here.
Pent-up demand: Hey, we’re laid back in BC. We didn’t think about buying until everyone else thought about buying.
Rich Foreigners: We love it, we’ll take two, we don’t care what it costs. Do you have any magic beans for sale? We’re investing in magic beans as well, thats how we got so rich.
Leaky Condos: Its like NEW now! And its cheaper than the others! Lets buy it!
Low interest rates: Heck, the bank’s practically paying us to get rich.
Population growth: Ok, so population growth isn’t so hot. Still, you have to admit SOME people are moving here, just less than before the 90’s correction.
Income growth: Lets see now.. I could take on a paper route, mow a few lawns on the weekend and apply for that night watch job at the construction site.. maybe sell my plasma on the side… Yes, honey, we can make that mortgage payment!
Illegal drugs: Dude! heheh. This condo is wiiiicked! It’s like totally 3D! Quit bogarting the joint, pass the dutchie man! whoa. I can feel the shrooms kicking in, where do I sign?
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blueskies Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 7:36 am
This condo is wiiiicked! It’s like totally 3D! Quit bogarting the joint, pass the dutchie man! whoa. I can feel the shrooms kicking in, where do I sign?
Rennie Marketing
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VHB Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 8:40 am
Oh, Pope, you are SO wrong. The data clearly suggest that low interest rates caused 7% and other was 39%. Only someone with a vested interest could make such a mistake. I’m sure Rennie put you up to this–unless you are actually Rennie! I could prove my facts with links, but I’ll just rest on my great authority and assert it.
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krrish1 Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 8:46 am
VHB,
what about you accusing some one without anecdotal shhs.
- yes, I rent.
- yes, I did not call the top.
- yes, I did not predict a 7 year boom.
- yes, I have been wrong before
- yes, I did quit my blog.
“Here, tell these people somethin they dont know about me”
vhb peace out
VHB
february 7,2008 at8.36pm
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Lager not Logger Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 8:55 am
Just for the sake of clarity Krrish, did YOU predict a 7 year boom? Because if you did that must mean you are a soothsayer and I’d like to know precisely how long this boom will last. Please give us the exact date of the top and the exact date of the next market bottom. Thanks!
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VHB Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 8:56 am
krrish1: I suggest you see your doctor immediately. It is clear your funny bone is broken. Sheesh. Chill.
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Anonymous Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 9:02 am
If you laugh you miss out on PROFIT OPPORTUNITY! You must remain focused on task at hand! The best thing to do with a funny bone is have it surgically removed! Your wealthy spoiled heirs will not thank you because they will be too busy snorting coke and driving their Bently into highway medians, but they will appreciate the sacrifice you made. Have your funny bone removed TODAY!
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Drachen Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 9:02 am
That’s not all that’s broken…
Hey VHB, I liked your chipman graph the other day, is there any way you can put some of that stuff on a public blog site? You don’t have to update regularly or allow comments but it’d be nice to have access to some of your useful info from the past.
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krrish1 Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 9:03 am
shut up are you blind showing people pop trend till 2006 don’t you know this is year 2008.OPEN your EYES right here and go to see doctor for your self.
Population
British columbia
Total (2007) 4,402,931 (est.)
GV
2,116,581( 2006) confirmed
Vancouver(2007)
City 611,869
Metro 2,289,900 (2007)-2,116,581(2006)=what
future projection
Population Comparison
Vancouver City Surrey/White
2001 578,993 382,350
2006 618,469 434,431
2011 655,926 484,225
2016 683,686 532,034
2021 707,656 579,802
2026 726,702 622,523
2031 741,930 659,560
*No more land mass *
2003 – 35,850
2004 – 39,721
2005 – 48,444
2006 – 54,952
2007 – 54,952 (53% increase over 2003)
2008 – 56,800 (forecast)
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Lager not Logger Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 9:07 am
*No more land
If you have one floor that covers 3000 sq feet and you turn that into 50 floors that cover 3000 sq feet each, what do you call that? Seen all those cranes on the skyline? What do you think they’re doing there? They ain’t just for pretty!
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krrish1 Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 9:11 am
what happend now are you still eating popcorn trend is your friend hon, trend is your friend, here are the trend here is your friend Krrish1 forever http://www.realtylink.org/hpi/.....YPE=buyers
you need to take a day off and give your head little rest have a good day.
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krrish1 Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 9:14 am
lager,
I don’t know when I am dealing with main crocodiles why I have to fight with multiple fishes,
Answer to your question on this point is do your own reserch,I can only answer your question when I will be free.
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scullboy Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 9:38 am
Ah krrish, how I love you.
I said many times you’re our canary in the coal mine, and today you seem a little… humourless. Are you feeling a little lightheaded?
You having problems making the mortgage payment, buddy? Maybe getting a bit nervous because it’s looking like that ‘investment’ property might not be worth as much as you thought?
I think it’s safe to say the bitchier our buddy Krrish gets, the further from the top we get in the Van market.
Love ya, krrish…. see you at the bottom of the curve
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btk Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 9:41 am
Krrish1, you are missing out on a key point.
Everyone here wants to read what VHB has to say whereas not one person here cares what you have to say because you’re an idiot.
The more you write the more you prove this point. So go buy a leaky condo, it’s clearly a great time for you to get in the market, TROLL.
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blueskies Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 9:47 am
you’re an idiot.
nicely put, succinct without the excess verbosity usually found in satv/k/? posts…
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The Pope Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 10:01 am
Only someone with a vested interest could make such a mistake. I’m sure Rennie put you up to this–unless you are actually Rennie!
Dag-nabbit Muir! I thought we agreed we wouldn’t reveal each others secret identity!
I stand by my chart. Those stats are completely accurate and a reliable source to base a buying decision on. I can tell you I went through some considerable discomfort pulling them out though.
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Anonymous Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 10:09 am
Future population growth….wonder what happens if the U.S. drags Canada into a recession. There goes all those real estate will go up forever predictions.
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Anonymous Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 10:16 am
“Boom psychology is the egoism that investors get during good times. When that dissipates, it’s bad for the economy.”
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Anonymous Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 10:25 am
Notice that Krrrsh has tons of time on their hands since they blog so much. If someone thinks real estate is so “hot” wouldn’t they be out buying as many properties as they can, flipping houses, etc. instead of yak, yak, yak on numerous blogs.
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Anonymous Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 10:28 am
I know people who are investors in the housing market, they don’t have time for blogs.
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Dosh Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 10:36 am
wonder what happens if the U.S. drags Canada into a recession.
Not going to happen. IF the US goes into recession it might have an effect back east, but Vancouver is different, our customers are all over the world and we’re not manufacturing widgets. We are a cultural center like New York or London as much as some of the bears here hate to hear that.
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btk Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 10:39 am
Krrish doesn’t work and he lives with his Mum, sharing a one bedroom apartment, my source, Informer, told me.
He doesn’t own property, he never has and he never will.
He also has nothing relevant to offer but he doesn’t let that stop him.
Once he finally takes the hint he’ll end up posting in a knitters anonymous group, telling them to buy wool before they get priced out forever.
I know of several people who’ve made money buying and selling wool, the wisemans are all lining up to do it.
The cost of wool can only go up because of the Olympics and,um, the boomers are getting old and we all know old people like to knit.. buy now or you’ll never be rich.
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Ignore the Jackass Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 10:40 am
You all give one troll too much attention!
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Kevin Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 10:43 am
just wondering about the data backing up this chart? how was the chart compiled? i would love to show this to some bulls i know (i am definitely not one of them!), but am interested in the data behind it!
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jesse Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 10:47 am
I don’t understand where you get these statist…
Oh… I see what you did there…
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btk Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 10:52 am
“We are a cultural center like New York or London as much as some of the bears here hate to hear that.”
Dosh, you would have learned a lot if you got past grade ten.
B.C.’s industries are forestry, mining, tourism, movies and drugs. These are all dependent on the U.S. you imbecile. When the U.S. put additional tariffs on lumber it really hurt B.C.’s economy.
Why is Vancouver like New York or London? Because it has streets and buildings too? How does it compare in population? How many corporate head offices are in Vancouver?
Are you sure it’s not more like Indianapolis or Cleveland? Cleveland also has streets and buildings and people who live there think it’s a great city, just like you.
Maybe Dosh is just Krissh using spell check.
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Dosh Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 10:52 am
These stats don’t exist, this chart is misleading. There is no way to track those causes.
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krrish1 Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 10:55 am
I love you 2 SOFIA but issue was to decide accusation without anecdotal this master can’t show the people what is going on and making fool of people here and there. now you see the trend,future and current projection but master is always confusing people with old date and that is of course here and there.
I will teach him economy some time in my free time
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krrish1 Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 10:56 am
well said the pope, I beleive you that’s why i went farther to make the picture clear.
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krrish1 Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 10:59 am
Excellent Climactic Conclusion
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krrish1 Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 11:07 am
yep and then cry for affordability right?
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dingus Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 11:10 am
“just wondering about the data”
“this chart is misleading”
Holy man
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Tony Danza Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 11:12 am
Krish, Just pay attention to those boxes you move around at work all day, forget about the economy, you might hurt yourself or someone else!!!!
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jesse Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 11:12 am
I’m not sure if you’re both being sarcastic or not.
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krrish1 Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 11:15 am
tony,
if it good to be an idiot carry on,I am heading for work.
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jesse Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 11:17 am
Well done, Pope. You did the blogger’s equivalent of farting in a Kindergarten class. Certainly very funny but not everyone “gets” it.
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blueskies Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 11:23 am
when in doubt slag the competition
http://tinyurl.com/2b2dp6
* Much more affordable and luxurious than the newly launched and overpriced Pier development *
Ask the seller about special payment incentives!
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Tony Danza Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 11:23 am
Yes Dosh, all of the charts and analysis that you have provided are much more accurate. Thank you for your valuable input!
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scullboy Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 11:26 am
BWAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
Dosh, have you ever been east of the Rockies?
I just got back from NYC. My boyfriend just moved from NYC. I spent 10 years in Toronto, and have travelled.
Honey. Vancover is NOT a cultural center. There’s a *small* opera here, and a *small* art gallery. I’m sorry but except for Bill Reid, and Douglas Coupland Van really has nothing to offer culturally.
Look, I hate Toronto and even I would be the first to admit it’s got WAY more culture then Van. So do Montreal, Quebec City and HALIFAX for God’s sake.
I’m also sorry to tell you this, but Van’s not a particularly cosmopolitan town, either. There are a lot of Asians and Indians here, but that’s it. It’s not really an “all over the world” kind of place.
You’re right. We don’t fasion widgets for the Americans. Asians do. So… if America goes into recession, and consumers stop buying widgets, what happens to all those “rich foreigners”?
Sorry buddy, Van’s not a cultural capital, but it’s cute that you and so many others think so. What, exactly makes Vancouver a cultural capital?
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scullboy Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 11:29 am
Well it certainly explains a lot of the bullish sentiment, doesn’t it?
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scullboy Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 11:31 am
A thought just crossed my mind…
There can’t be a seam of granite in a 1,000 mile radius, what with all the countertops.
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Visio Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 11:44 am
Vancouver has the second populated downtown inNorth America after Manhatan, with the difference being that there are no business in here … only Shangri’la and leaky condos.
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Anonymous Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 11:44 am
Stats Can…..
2006 total B.C. exports to all countries 34,823,150
2006 total B.C exports to the U.S. 21,297,850
60% of all B.C. exports go to the U.S.
75% of all Canadian exports go to the U.S.
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Anonymous Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 11:59 am
“Vancouver is different, our customers are all over the world”
BWAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
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Kevin Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 12:16 pm
kidding boys
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Dosh Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
Those statscan numbers are from 2006 – thats two years ago. Its possible that the ratio of products we sell to the US vs. the rest of the world has changed dramatically in that time.
Here’s what I know: There is unprecedented demand for real estate in Vancouver and people are still buying. Prices are the highest they’ve ever been and people are still buying. People that ignored the fear and bought have done very well so far.
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scullboy Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 12:23 pm
Krrish, I have a lot of trouble believing they let you out of the house without a note pinned to your chest.
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blueskies Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 12:24 pm
People that ignored the fear and bought have done very well so far.
so far….. can it continue?
OT but i’ve noticed that a lot of metro vancouver young gangsters have opted for the early retirement program….
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Tony Danza Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 12:25 pm
People that ignored the fear and bought have done very well so far.
So are you saying that everyone that bought before the run up has sold? How exactly have they done very well? Unless you have the cash in your hands it’s called paper profits. I know many who did VERY well during the dot com boom with employer stock options, I’m sure you can guess how they are doing now.
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Tony Danza Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 12:27 pm
There is unprecedented demand for real estate in Vancouver and people are still buying.
Have you listened to Jurock lately? He seems to disagree with you regarding Vancouver condos. Or is he just another bear?
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jesse Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 12:27 pm
I’m sure someone who “ignored the fear” and bought a condo in San Diego in 2005 might paint a different picture. Don’t confuse risk with fear.
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scullboy Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
That’s a bit like saying people who are alive today are immortal because they haven’t yet died.
Look pal, everything is cyclical. That includes real estate. You’re so locked into your own mind set, you’ll refute hard data with “it’s possible that”. Don’t you think it would have made headlines if all of a sudden we were selling more lumber to China then we’ve been selling ot the U.S.?
You’re correct on a few points:
1) There has been unprecedented demand for RE in Van.
2) Prices are the highest they’ve ever been.
However when I look at things like immigration patterns and income levels, it seems pretty clear that the locals have been selling themselves and each other a bill of goods.
Sooner or later, external factors are going to take their toll. Essentially, the credit crunch and subprime mess mean money is disappearing from the world’s financial systems. Less money in the system means less money to lend out. Less money to lend means fewer people will get mortgages because banks etc need to cover their losses and ensure they have enough capital to maintain liquidity.
If you think this has nothing to do with Canada, I have four letters for you:
CIBC.
Fewer qualified buyers mean fewer buyers.
Fewer new buyers in the system means reduced demand.
Reduced demand means the top of the market has been reached, which in turn leaves all those people expecting to profit with 2 options:
Sell, or hold.
People don’t overextend themselves buying “investment” properties to hold. Therefore, they will start to sell. And sell and sell and sell, in an ever more desperate attempt to find qualified buyers.
Instead of buyers chasing sellers, sellers will need to start chasing buyers.
Got it?
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johnny33 Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 12:46 pm
“when in doubt slag the competition
http://tinyurl.com/2b2dp6
* Much more affordable and luxurious than the newly launched and overpriced Pier development *”
Because $430k for a 1 bedroom ISN’T overpriced? lol…
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jesse Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 1:13 pm
“Its possible that the ratio of products we sell to the US vs. the rest of the world has changed dramatically in that time.”
Dramatically it has definitely not. Here is a report on exports from BC Stats export site. To quote:
“The value of BC origin exports has fallen
5.7% in the first ten months of 2007 compared
to the January to October period in 2006.”
Forestry is still 40% of exports. When in a recession this sucks for BC no matter how you spin it.
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Anonymous Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 1:56 pm
“Those statscan numbers are from 2006 – thats two years ago. Its possible that the ratio of products we sell to the US vs. the rest of the world has changed dramatically in that time.”
Obvious you don’t know how Stats Can reporting works. Really in one year you think B.C. is exporting more to other countries than the U.S. Your imagination is must be working overtime.
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Anonymous Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 2:10 pm
The U.S. is has the biggest consumption rate in the world 70% of GDP., they do not called it an Economic Superpower for no reason. If the U.S. goes into recession, it will drag down/slowdown the economy of every other country in the world. Including India and China who depends on exports. No demand, little exports.
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Tony Danza Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 2:27 pm
Right now shut up and stack those boxes!
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Mold City Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 2:37 pm
Its funny that some people seem to think that because things take time that means they will never happen. How many articles do you see these days taking the theory of ‘decoupling’ seriously? Our forestry industry is shutting down, the dollar is up (bad for exports) and our biggest trading partner looks to be entering a recession. This does not bode well for our economy.
But that doesn’t mean you’re going to see a change right away in a big illiquid market like housing. It takes a while for those changes to roll downhill, just like it takes a while for a rebound to start benefiting the general population once we’ve hit bottom.
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Snark Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 2:50 pm
Not to get too picky with the chart but I bet low interest rates played a much bigger part in the boom.
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scullboy Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 3:15 pm
But…but…China has the ocean! And Mountains! And the Olympics!
Sorry, couldn’t resist….
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Drachen Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 3:21 pm
Scullboy
“That’s a bit like saying people who are alive today are immortal because they haven’t yet died.”
Hey man, that’s MY line!
Dosh
“Those statscan numbers are from 2006 – thats two years ago. Its possible that the ratio of products we sell to the US vs. the rest of the world has changed dramatically in that time.”
Way to deny reality buddy. When the statistics and what you WANT to be true disagree find a way to discredit the stats.
As I’ve said in the past it’s POSSIBLE that little green men from Uranus will come and start some bidding wars with their planet made of gold which will continue driving prices up for another 100 years. But it’s about as likely as a massive shift in BC’s economy that NOBODY AT ALL HAS NOTICED! That would be like moving BC place to Halifax without anyone noticing, such a drastic shift as you propose would have been covered by SOMEBODY you moron!
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btk Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 3:22 pm
Calgary had the Olympics in 1988 and now an average house is worth $16 million and look at Torino and Salt Lake City, same thing!
Clearly the Winter Olympics only go to world class cities and as a result house prices can only go up forever so Vancouverites spending $629,000 for a one bedroom today will be rich, and in the meantime those units can be rented for $1450 until the big payday.
Or something….
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Drachen Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 3:25 pm
I was going to let it pass…
To Snark, et al. who are picking apart the chart.
IT IS A JOKE!
There is no way you could come up with a graph like that through statistical analysis. Everything is interrelated, if low interest rates drive up speculation then is that “interest rates” or “speculation”? You can’t separate elements that way.
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Anonymous Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
btk,
Lived in Calgary during the ‘88 Olympics. The only thing that happened was tenants near the Olympic venue sites were evicted so the landlords could collect very high rent while the Olympics were on. There was so much talk how the real estate would go up because of the Olympics in Calgary. It didn’t happen and it is funny how the same silly real estate rumour is being mentioned today about Vancouver.
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Anonymous Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 4:42 pm
Drachen,
Dosh doesn’t read government stats and doesn’t realize some stats are reported on an annual basis and not on a monthly or quarterly basis. Total exports for 2006 was reported in 2007 and total exports for 2007 will be reported in 2008. This concept of lag time eludes them, that is why stats are 2 years old to them. LOL
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Ed Bear Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 4:43 pm
“Because $430k for a 1 bedroom ISN’T overpriced? lol…”
Good grief. 656 square feet for nearly half a million? Seriously, screw that noise. Putting $100K down and doing a 40 year mortgage that’s still over $2k per month.
Right now you can get 1000 square feet for $1.1K per month rent in North Van.
That’s just downright silly.
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Not Cultured Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 4:53 pm
We are a cultural center like New York or London as much as some of the bears here hate to hear that.
We don’t have enough cultured people to be a cultural center like New York or London. What we have are a slog of pseudo-cultured newly-rich (from home equity withdrawals) who are letting their aspirations get ahead of reality. Most of these individuals believe that if they dress the part and talk in a certain manner, it means they’re cultured.
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Not Cultured Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 4:55 pm
Also, it helps if you can fake an accent. If you really do have a natural accent, you generally don’t fake being cultured; you are content to be cultured or not.
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scullboy Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 4:56 pm
I guess with real estate prices being so high, nobody can afford irony.
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jesse Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 4:58 pm
BC export stats are published monthly. The lag is only about 3 months. Latest stats are to November 2007, though probably only available through subscription or going to a local library.
Dosh is right though. If the US goes into recession the percentage of non-US exports will increase. Though the total value of exports may not.
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scullboy Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 4:58 pm
which makes them more vulgar or at least nouveau riche then cultured.
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Anonymous Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 5:33 pm
Jesse,
BC provincial government has export stats available for a fee. Stats Can publishes for free, with a lag time.
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Anonymous Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 5:38 pm
“If the US goes into recession the percentage of non-US exports will increase.”
How do you figure this? If the U.S. goes into into recession this will cut exports to the U.S. from emerging countries like India and China, this will affect growth in these countries and thus weaken demand for imports from Canada.
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M- Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 5:47 pm
No kidding, LOL!
I’m amazed that they don’t get it. Though perhaps I shouldn’t be amazed, given the stuff they’ve spewed out…
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Anonymous Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 5:55 pm
Dosh is right though. If the US goes into recession the percentage of non-US exports will increase. Though the total value of exports may not.
Yeh well I guess! What a brilliant statement. If 95% of our exports go to the US and 5 % to China, then it follows that if we lost all of our exports to the US 100% of our exports would got to China which means we would have an income based on 5% of our current. Is this a real discussion? Who is this Dosh anyways? Quote “He’s right”? Thats not the way he thinks, he thinks income is percentage! WTF? Bright is definitely not his middle name! Jesse your not that dumb right it was tongue in cheak I would hope!
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Anonymous Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 6:01 pm
Dosh must have wrote that reply. Douche is retarded
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freako Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 6:03 pm
60% of all B.C. exports go to the U.S.
And of the 40% that doesn’t, a fair portion end up in the U.S. eventually. The U.S. consumers 10 times more than China and India combined.
Those statscan numbers are from 2006 – thats two years ago. Its possible that the ratio of products we sell to the US vs. the rest of the world has changed dramatically in that time.
Let me get this straight. You think that export ratios can change dramatically in 18 months, but you believe in some immutable law that keeps demand for housing perpetually high. Clearly you are not debating in good faith.
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hughz Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 6:18 pm
Thought I would just kill this topic outright.
According to the November 2007 edition of BC Stats’ “Exports” periodical (and yes, you have to be a subscriber), year-to-date the US imported 17.531 billion CAD from BC. Total BC exports, year to date were 28.929 billion CAD.
BC exports bound for the US as a percentage of total BC exports: 60.6%.
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anonymous Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 6:21 pm
If you have to convince me to buy, its because theres nobody buying. In fact, look how many new units are coming online in the next year.
A lot of people have been buying up 2nd and 3rd properties with the prospect of a renter paying their retirement nest egg(s). What nobody is talking about is what happens when our employment levels rise to non-historical lows?
Another thought is how many assignments are still being flipped.
Thanks, but I’ll wait this one out. Prices are coming Way down over the next 5 years. I’m on the sidelines with a combined income that can afford much now, but much more later.
Tech boom, RE boom, they all collapse.
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hughz Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 6:43 pm
On this point, the same “Exports” cited above shows that the PRC accounts for 5.5% of our exports. And that other Asian giant, India? 0.8%.
So your guess of 10 times more is pretty much dead-on in the case of BC products.
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scullboy Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 7:38 pm
And let’s not forget the baby boom! Aren’t they due to cpllapse too?
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patriotz Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 7:42 pm
A lot of people have been buying up 2nd and 3rd properties with the prospect of a renter paying their retirement nest egg(s)
Not a renter, a greater fool (buyer). I think even the idiots buying today can see that there is no reasonable scenario where their properties can provide cash flow from rent.
Or are they even crazier than I thought?
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freako Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 7:55 pm
So your guess of 10 times more is pretty much dead-on in the case of BC products.
Actually, it wasn’t a guess but a rounded statistic. Interesting that B.C. has similar ratios. And once again, don’t forget that many of our raw materials exported to China do return to the U.S. as finished goods. Don’t expect China to keep growing unabated if the U.S. falters. They have some nice bubbles of their own.
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jesse Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 8:44 pm
FTR yes it was tongue and cheek.
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jesse Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 8:56 pm
“And of the 40% that doesn’t, a fair portion end up in the U.S. eventually.”
Which is why Asian markets reel every time the US equity markets take a hit. Whither be decoupling?
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scullboy Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 8:58 pm
NOt crazy, just in denial.
They’re like Dosh, they bought the whole “this is a planetary cultural capital. When the Olympics come, *everyone* will want to be here, and when that happens your property will be worth a fortune”.
Even smart people make bad choices. My old man sank a ton of money into Norel stock, figuring it would pay for my brother’s college fund. And we all know how THAT turned out….
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Michael Randallbard Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 9:23 pm
“However when I look at things like immigration patterns and income levels, it seems pretty clear that the locals have been selling themselves and each other a bill of goods.”
Kinda like a circle jerk.
Vancouver Immigrants Screwing Each Other
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krrish1 Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 9:34 pm
Damn,
We are always in need of industries to get jobs not to buy homes lots of people got jobs here since when ever they have start working,the question is are you able to buy home? being on bears side means no!you can not afford or you don’t like to buy or you don’t want to buy. jobs are growing every month did you buy anything since when ever.If market looks bub to you why did you miss the boat when prices were under control?????.
So if we double the export from now would you be able to buy?No!no!no.
What’s his point is no matter what you think of market but people from within provinces of canada,usa,and over seas are still buying.
Some cut out cinnamon rools
——————–
“How many of you are ready to buy a place granted the bank will give you a mortgage if prices drop like insanely fast?
I’m priced out right now. There is nothing I can do about it. Just gotta keep living life”.-Andreas
“Me, too. I’ve missed the boat and won’t be jumping excitedly onto any raft that comes by”.-evergreen
“you people should be buying instead of complaining – get into the houising market at what you can afford and stop worrying”.-anonymous
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sidelines Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 9:36 pm
Hey Hughz,
Could you let us know, from the BC export data you referred to, what the top 5 countries are that we export to (and the associated breakdown in percentages). If it’s too much of a hassle, or requires some number crunching, whatever, don’t worry about it. I’m just very surprised at seeing how little we export to China and India. So many keep referring to these countries when speaking of “decoupling” and how we’re going to avoid a recession here even if the US economy tanks.
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Anonymous Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 10:10 pm
So many keep referring to these countries when speaking of “decoupling”
For some reason the decoupling theory was taken as fact, when a simple reasonability test woudld have blown it out of the water. That is not to say that over longer periods of tiem (say decades), there will be a larger shifts away from U.S. production and consumption.
and how we’re going to avoid a recession here even if the US economy tanks
We won’t avoid it. Also, remember that the action is at the margins. Commodity prices are based on the global situation. Even if we didn’t sell a single 2×4 to the U.S, a U.S. recession would reduce the value of our exports.
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Anonymous Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 10:44 pm
“IF the US goes into recession it might have an effect back east, but Vancouver is different, our customers are all over the world and we’re not manufacturing widgets. We are a cultural center like New York or London as much as some of the bears here hate to hear that.”
Haha…
I was just in London on the weekend, and there is no possible way to compare Vancouver to London. We were at the Chelsea Liverpool match on Sunday, and on the walk there saw a Bentley followed by a Lambo followed by a Ferrari. So many supercars there it’s insane! Brand new Porsche’s, ever 4th car. Cars I’ve only seen in calendars and magazines.
The money in London comes from the huge number of world bank headquarters and other financial institutions… And the 2012 Olympics. Vancouver is home to… EA sports and the 2010 Olympics?
Oh, BTW, UK real estate is crashing big time.
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krrish1 Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 11:15 pm
Brand new Porsche’s, ever 4th car. Cars I’ve only seen in calendars and magazines.
What about parking?
half of the car on street and half on side walk.
what about streets structure?
too narrow.
did you see the police cars?
looks like fire fly.
except 2 street of central london did you see the rest of city?
whoop!
if you are genuine Vancouverites lived in Vancouver you should have say Vancouver British Columbia,Canada with any postal code is a BEST PLACE ON EARTH.
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patriotz Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 11:31 pm
Vancouver is home to… EA sports and the 2010 Olympics?
Hey, you forgot Lululemon!
And now, a Toll Brother’s daughter is walking the walk!
Florida Taking Its Toll (Brothers) On Daughter’s Condo
“You just can’t make this stuff up. Apparently even a big builder’s daughter can’t seem to keep faith in the Florida housing market. According to an SEC filing, Wendy Topkis, daughter of Toll Brothers co-founder and Vice-Chairman Bruce Toll, is walking away from a Florida condo, just like everyone else. A Toll Bros. condo!! The Palm Beach Post says it best: Et Tu Wendy?”
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Michael Randallbard Says:
February 12th, 2008 at 12:33 am
Second, losses for the financial system from the subprime disaster are now estimated to be as high as $250 to $300 billion. But the financial losses will not be only in subprime mortgages and the related RMBS and CDOs. They are now spreading to near prime and prime mortgages as the same reckless lending practices in subprime (no down-payment, no verification of income, jobs and assets (i.e. NINJA or LIAR loans), interest rate only, negative amortization, teaser rates, etc.) were occurring across the entire spectrum of mortgages; about 60% of all mortgage origination since 2005 through 2007 had these reckless and toxic features. So this is a generalized mortgage crisis and meltdown, not just a subprime one.
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patriotz Says:
February 12th, 2008 at 12:34 am
I’m just very surprised at seeing how little we export to China and India
Just what is so surprising about it? What does BC produce that they can’t get from a closer source? India is practically on the other side of the planet, for heaven’s sake. Could this province please get over its incredible self-importance?
Russia (Siberia) is right on the border with China and not all that far from India, and Australia is much closer to both of them as well.
“Japan is Australia’s leading market for exports of goods and services ($35.5 billion in 2006-07), followed by China ($26.4 billion), the United States ($15.5 billion), the Republic of Korea ($14.9 billion) and New Zealand ($12.7 billion).”
Kinda figures.
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evergreen Says:
February 12th, 2008 at 1:10 am
“I’m priced out right now. There is nothing I can do about it. Just gotta keep living life”.-Andreas
“Me, too. I’ve missed the boat and won’t be jumping excitedly onto any raft that comes by”.-evergreen
“you people should be buying instead of complaining – get into the houising market at what you can afford and stop worrying”.-anonymous
Complaining? I’m pretty happy living within my means.
There are more important things in life (like family, good health, peace of mind) than home ownership.
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sidelines Says:
February 12th, 2008 at 5:57 am
patriotz:
“‘I’m just very surprised at seeing how little we export to China and India’
Just what is so surprising about it? What does BC produce that they can’t get from a closer source? India is practically on the other side of the planet, for heaven’s sake. Could this province please get over its incredible self-importance?”
I’m not sure if you’re perhaps implying that I believe that BC is “the best place on earth” or something. The export numbers quoted were much smaller than I would have anticipated. That’s bloody all. Guess I’m a little thick. And I’m guessing maybe you need a hug.
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crabman Says:
February 12th, 2008 at 6:17 am
We got granite everywhere!
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scullboy Says:
February 12th, 2008 at 7:16 am
Wrong again, tard.
Being on the bears side means you’ve had a look at the economy and heard the local RE zombies chanting “best place on earth, buy now or be priced out forever” and decided “huh, this doesn’t look like a very good investment.” It’s got nothing to do with your job.
LIke evergreen I’ve been priced out. Or at least I’ve been priced out of anything but a shitty Surrey condo I’d have to take a 40 year mortgage to purchase. I supposed it would be better to say the things I could afford, I wouldn’t want to buy.
And who the f**k would be stupid enough to follow financial advice posted by “anonymous”. Yeah that’s the way to wealth.
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scullboy Says:
February 12th, 2008 at 7:19 am
So is RE in NYC.
So there you go…. in both of the world’s great cultural capitals, RE is crashing.
But maybe Vancouver is a GALACTIC cultural capital??
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chip@chip@yahoo.com Says:
February 12th, 2008 at 7:53 am
“75% of all Canadian exports go to the U.S.”
Do you have a link for that? It’s been 85-86% for years, including last year according to this government link:
http://www.investincanada.com/.....tabid=2064
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patriotz Says:
February 12th, 2008 at 8:15 am
I already have someone to hug me, thank you. But sometimes I feel the need to take a great big primal scream at the endless parade of rationalizations for BC’s supposed economic primacy.
I just thought that it would be self-evident that BC does not produce anything that China or India wants, and can’t get from closer. Except Bryan Adams recordings, and they’re all pirated over there anyway.
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jesse Says:
February 12th, 2008 at 8:44 am
Approximately: US 60%, Japan 15%, rest of Asia 15%, rest of world about 10%. And, as has been mentioned already, most of the exports to Asia are subsequently value-added and cycled into the US (and EU) in short order.
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hughz Says:
February 12th, 2008 at 9:37 am
No problem, that’s what excel is for.
Top regions:
1.) North America, 61.2% (of which Mexico contributes 0.6 percentage points)
2.) Pacific Rim, 27.1% (of which Japan contributes 12.9 percentage points)
3.) Western Europe, 7.4%
4.) South East Asia, 1.7%
5.) South America, 1.3%
6.) The Middle East, 0.9%
7.) Eastern Europe, 0.6%
8.) Central America & the Caribbean, 0.3%
9.) Africa, 0.2%
(BTW: there is a little round error here, so the sum is 100.7%)
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hughz Says:
February 12th, 2008 at 9:49 am
Try this link out:
http://www40.statcan.ca/l01/cst01/gblec02a.htm
Seems like it was right in the middle in 2006 at 79.2%.
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Anonymous Says:
February 12th, 2008 at 12:58 pm
The 75% – 76% was an estimate from stats can for 2007. Unable to locate link right now.
Hughz,
Thanks for posting B.C’s current export rate.
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Anonymous Says:
February 12th, 2008 at 1:00 pm
I’m not sure why the media is stating we have so much more trade with India and China. This decoupling theory and that India and China will pick up our export slack is a bunch of bunk. We are so dependent on the U.S. for exports and our financial well being in Canada. End of story.
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Andreas Says:
February 12th, 2008 at 1:51 pm
Damn,
We are always in need of industries to get jobs not to buy homes lots of people got jobs here since when ever they have start working,the question is are you able to buy home? being on bears side means no!you can not afford or you don’t like to buy or you don’t want to buy. jobs are growing every month did you buy anything since when ever.If market looks bub to you why did you miss the boat when prices were under control?????.
So if we double the export from now would you be able to buy?No!no!no.
What’s his point is no matter what you think of market but people from within provinces of canada,usa,and over seas are still buying.
Some cut out cinnamon rools
——————–
“How many of you are ready to buy a place granted the bank will give you a mortgage if prices drop like insanely fast?
I’m priced out right now. There is nothing I can do about it. Just gotta keep living life”.-Andreas
“Me, too. I’ve missed the boat and won’t be jumping excitedly onto any raft that comes by”.-evergreen
“you people should be buying instead of complaining – get into the houising market at what you can afford and stop worrying”.-anonymous
Woh, Guess me being 21, and having 50 grand in the bank makes a difference. I don’t have my career yet as I still have 3 years of school left before I’m done and have my career.
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hughz Says:
February 12th, 2008 at 4:24 pm
My impression is that they get wowed by the import figures from China, as of 2006 it was Canada’s second largest source of imports at 34.5 billion (compared to the 217.6 billion from the US). And especially the growth figures, with a 116% clip from 2002 to 2006.
What they presumably don’t realize is that a lot of those containers in the port of Vancouver are going back empty to Shanghai, HK, etc.
I also see no reason why the media gets so excited about India, currently 0.5% of our imports come from there and 0.4% of our exports go there.
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Anonymous Says:
February 12th, 2008 at 5:17 pm
I think most of the people on the blog wish to purchase a home, not a condo and have more than 50k.
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rx Says:
February 12th, 2008 at 5:49 pm
I wouldn’t mind buying a condo, but not at a ridiculous price. If I could rent a car for half the cost of buying one there’s no way I’d buy one, so why would I buy a condo right now?
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krrish1 Says:
February 12th, 2008 at 11:07 pm
Thanks for all the response to the above post,I have put three institute character in the end those were andreas,evergreen and anon and the response are also very decent this is a scenario where people without any greed are posting their pure thoughts.
I love all of you and for the understanding ,all those model character are there to say their own thoughts none of them are there to cut each other for example anons post at no.3 actually does not respond to evergreen and andreas but all three of them are three different sounds, need to get through every single ears.
Ever green you might got some confusion but still your respond, I am agree with you there is nothing beyond happiness and family.Satisfaction is very important than renting or buying.
Because of people like andreas,evergreen,anonymous and rx,our city is proud to be called best place on earth.
Thanks
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Anonymous Says:
February 13th, 2008 at 7:12 am
BTK
http://tinyurl.com/yrl3kj
(before the dot.com crash)
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real estate Vancouver Says:
February 14th, 2008 at 5:35 am
The Vancouver real estate market is undoubtedly not in decline disregarding the fact you wanted to make a mockery out of it or not. In addition this is the best period to make up your mind and invest in that while the prices are not so high. I think that this place is more and more desirable considering the vast range of job opportunities.
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Snark Says:
February 14th, 2008 at 4:32 pm
this is the best period to make up your mind and invest in that while the prices are not so high.
Is that really you Jay Banks? Or just someone linking to your site? Please tell why ‘prices are not so high’. Can you find a single property in vancouver that will cashflow on rental income, because I do believe that would be the standard measure of an ‘investment’ property. Otherwise you’re just speculating on future gains. That’s turned out badly for people buying in MANY other markets over the last year.
115 X The Burrard Street Blog » An Interesting Solution To Unsustainable Housing Prices and Rental Rates Part 1 Says:
February 23rd, 2008 at 10:34 pm
[...] Speculation. As happens far too often in markets around the world speculation is running rampant in the Vancouver real estate market. Huge marketing teams push condo development presales and buyers hope to flip them for a quick buck. This means the market prices don’t reflect true resident demand for housing. Speculation drives market prices up beyond what resident’s incomes support. [...]
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Toronto real estate agent Says:
February 28th, 2008 at 3:13 am
Hey, I am working as a Toronto real estate agent for 10 years but I never seen such an analise before. Where did you find that chard???:)
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amac Says:
March 20th, 2008 at 10:41 am
Comment by Dosh: “We are a cultural center like New York or London as much as some of the bears here hate to hear that.”
ARE YOU OUT OF YOUR MIND? Building a bunch of garish, overpriced hi-rise condos does not make a city great. What’s your idea of culture? A night out in Yaletown? People move here for the weather/ocean/mountains, not the culture or nightlife. This is a sleepy seaside town for rich retirees and rich foreigners, neither of which rate culture very high on their list. Get your head out of your ass an take a trip to Montreal or New York, then you might understand what a cultural wasteland Vancouver really is.
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Anonymous Says:
March 20th, 2008 at 11:39 am
dosh is just an idiot who has never been to an art gallery or an opera, he thinks culture is something that comes from his ass when he sits on the toilet.