What caused the Vancouver real estate boom?
Speculation: Prices are going up, therefore prices will go up. Get in before you’re priced out forever. Its the only way to get really rich without even trying. Prices are practically guaranteed to go up forever. This time its different here.
Pent-up demand: Hey, we’re laid back in BC. We didn’t think about buying until everyone else thought about buying.
Rich Foreigners: We love it, we’ll take two, we don’t care what it costs. Do you have any magic beans for sale? We’re investing in magic beans as well, thats how we got so rich.
Leaky Condos: Its like NEW now! And its cheaper than the others! Lets buy it!
Low interest rates: Heck, the bank’s practically paying us to get rich.
Population growth: Ok, so population growth isn’t so hot. Still, you have to admit SOME people are moving here, just less than before the 90’s correction.
Income growth: Lets see now.. I could take on a paper route, mow a few lawns on the weekend and apply for that night watch job at the construction site.. maybe sell my plasma on the side… Yes, honey, we can make that mortgage payment!
Illegal drugs: Dude! heheh. This condo is wiiiicked! It’s like totally 3D! Quit bogarting the joint, pass the dutchie man! whoa. I can feel the shrooms kicking in, where do I sign?
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February 11th, 2008 at 7:36 am
Rennie Marketing
February 11th, 2008 at 8:40 am
February 11th, 2008 at 8:46 am
what about you accusing some one without anecdotal shhs.
- yes, I rent.
- yes, I did not call the top.
- yes, I did not predict a 7 year boom.
- yes, I have been wrong before
- yes, I did quit my blog.
“Here, tell these people somethin they dont know about me”
vhb peace out
VHB
february 7,2008 at8.36pm
February 11th, 2008 at 8:55 am
February 11th, 2008 at 8:56 am
February 11th, 2008 at 9:02 am
February 11th, 2008 at 9:02 am
Hey VHB, I liked your chipman graph the other day, is there any way you can put some of that stuff on a public blog site? You don’t have to update regularly or allow comments but it’d be nice to have access to some of your useful info from the past.
February 11th, 2008 at 9:03 am
Population
British columbia
Total (2007) 4,402,931 (est.)
GV
2,116,581( 2006) confirmed
Vancouver(2007)
City 611,869
Metro 2,289,900 (2007)-2,116,581(2006)=what
future projection
Population Comparison
Vancouver City Surrey/White
2001 578,993 382,350
2006 618,469 434,431
2011 655,926 484,225
2016 683,686 532,034
2021 707,656 579,802
2026 726,702 622,523
2031 741,930 659,560
*No more land mass *
2003 - 35,850
2004 - 39,721
2005 - 48,444
2006 - 54,952
2007 - 54,952 (53% increase over 2003)
2008 - 56,800 (forecast)
February 11th, 2008 at 9:07 am
If you have one floor that covers 3000 sq feet and you turn that into 50 floors that cover 3000 sq feet each, what do you call that? Seen all those cranes on the skyline? What do you think they’re doing there? They ain’t just for pretty!
February 11th, 2008 at 9:11 am
you need to take a day off and give your head little rest have a good day.
February 11th, 2008 at 9:14 am
I don’t know when I am dealing with main crocodiles why I have to fight with multiple fishes,
Answer to your question on this point is do your own reserch,I can only answer your question when I will be free.
February 11th, 2008 at 9:38 am
I said many times you’re our canary in the coal mine, and today you seem a little… humourless. Are you feeling a little lightheaded?
You having problems making the mortgage payment, buddy? Maybe getting a bit nervous because it’s looking like that ‘investment’ property might not be worth as much as you thought?
I think it’s safe to say the bitchier our buddy Krrish gets, the further from the top we get in the Van market.
Love ya, krrish…. see you at the bottom of the curve
February 11th, 2008 at 9:41 am
Everyone here wants to read what VHB has to say whereas not one person here cares what you have to say because you’re an idiot.
The more you write the more you prove this point. So go buy a leaky condo, it’s clearly a great time for you to get in the market, TROLL.
February 11th, 2008 at 9:47 am
nicely put, succinct without the excess verbosity usually found in satv/k/? posts…
February 11th, 2008 at 10:01 am
Dag-nabbit Muir! I thought we agreed we wouldn’t reveal each others secret identity!
I stand by my chart. Those stats are completely accurate and a reliable source to base a buying decision on. I can tell you I went through some considerable discomfort pulling them out though.
February 11th, 2008 at 10:09 am
February 11th, 2008 at 10:16 am
February 11th, 2008 at 10:25 am
February 11th, 2008 at 10:28 am
February 11th, 2008 at 10:36 am
Not going to happen. IF the US goes into recession it might have an effect back east, but Vancouver is different, our customers are all over the world and we’re not manufacturing widgets. We are a cultural center like New York or London as much as some of the bears here hate to hear that.
February 11th, 2008 at 10:39 am
He doesn’t own property, he never has and he never will.
He also has nothing relevant to offer but he doesn’t let that stop him.
Once he finally takes the hint he’ll end up posting in a knitters anonymous group, telling them to buy wool before they get priced out forever.
I know of several people who’ve made money buying and selling wool, the wisemans are all lining up to do it.
The cost of wool can only go up because of the Olympics and,um, the boomers are getting old and we all know old people like to knit.. buy now or you’ll never be rich.
February 11th, 2008 at 10:40 am
February 11th, 2008 at 10:43 am
February 11th, 2008 at 10:47 am
Oh… I see what you did there…
February 11th, 2008 at 10:52 am
Dosh, you would have learned a lot if you got past grade ten.
B.C.’s industries are forestry, mining, tourism, movies and drugs. These are all dependent on the U.S. you imbecile. When the U.S. put additional tariffs on lumber it really hurt B.C.’s economy.
Why is Vancouver like New York or London? Because it has streets and buildings too? How does it compare in population? How many corporate head offices are in Vancouver?
Are you sure it’s not more like Indianapolis or Cleveland? Cleveland also has streets and buildings and people who live there think it’s a great city, just like you.
Maybe Dosh is just Krissh using spell check.
February 11th, 2008 at 10:52 am
February 11th, 2008 at 10:55 am
I will teach him economy some time in my free time
February 11th, 2008 at 10:56 am
February 11th, 2008 at 10:59 am
February 11th, 2008 at 11:07 am
February 11th, 2008 at 11:10 am
“this chart is misleading”
Holy man
February 11th, 2008 at 11:12 am
February 11th, 2008 at 11:12 am
February 11th, 2008 at 11:15 am
if it good to be an idiot carry on,I am heading for work.
February 11th, 2008 at 11:17 am
February 11th, 2008 at 11:23 am
http://tinyurl.com/2b2dp6
* Much more affordable and luxurious than the newly launched and overpriced Pier development *
Ask the seller about special payment incentives!
February 11th, 2008 at 11:23 am
February 11th, 2008 at 11:26 am
Dosh, have you ever been east of the Rockies?
I just got back from NYC. My boyfriend just moved from NYC. I spent 10 years in Toronto, and have travelled.
Honey. Vancover is NOT a cultural center. There’s a *small* opera here, and a *small* art gallery. I’m sorry but except for Bill Reid, and Douglas Coupland Van really has nothing to offer culturally.
Look, I hate Toronto and even I would be the first to admit it’s got WAY more culture then Van. So do Montreal, Quebec City and HALIFAX for God’s sake.
I’m also sorry to tell you this, but Van’s not a particularly cosmopolitan town, either. There are a lot of Asians and Indians here, but that’s it. It’s not really an “all over the world” kind of place.
You’re right. We don’t fasion widgets for the Americans. Asians do. So… if America goes into recession, and consumers stop buying widgets, what happens to all those “rich foreigners”?
Sorry buddy, Van’s not a cultural capital, but it’s cute that you and so many others think so. What, exactly makes Vancouver a cultural capital?
February 11th, 2008 at 11:29 am
February 11th, 2008 at 11:31 am
There can’t be a seam of granite in a 1,000 mile radius, what with all the countertops.
February 11th, 2008 at 11:44 am
February 11th, 2008 at 11:44 am
2006 total B.C. exports to all countries 34,823,150
2006 total B.C exports to the U.S. 21,297,850
60% of all B.C. exports go to the U.S.
75% of all Canadian exports go to the U.S.
February 11th, 2008 at 11:59 am
BWAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
February 11th, 2008 at 12:16 pm
February 11th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
Here’s what I know: There is unprecedented demand for real estate in Vancouver and people are still buying. Prices are the highest they’ve ever been and people are still buying. People that ignored the fear and bought have done very well so far.
February 11th, 2008 at 12:23 pm
February 11th, 2008 at 12:24 pm
so far….. can it continue?
OT but i’ve noticed that a lot of metro vancouver young gangsters have opted for the early retirement program….
February 11th, 2008 at 12:25 pm
So are you saying that everyone that bought before the run up has sold? How exactly have they done very well? Unless you have the cash in your hands it’s called paper profits. I know many who did VERY well during the dot com boom with employer stock options, I’m sure you can guess how they are doing now.
February 11th, 2008 at 12:27 pm
Have you listened to Jurock lately? He seems to disagree with you regarding Vancouver condos. Or is he just another bear?
February 11th, 2008 at 12:27 pm
February 11th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
Look pal, everything is cyclical. That includes real estate. You’re so locked into your own mind set, you’ll refute hard data with “it’s possible that”. Don’t you think it would have made headlines if all of a sudden we were selling more lumber to China then we’ve been selling ot the U.S.?
You’re correct on a few points:
1) There has been unprecedented demand for RE in Van.
2) Prices are the highest they’ve ever been.
However when I look at things like immigration patterns and income levels, it seems pretty clear that the locals have been selling themselves and each other a bill of goods.
Sooner or later, external factors are going to take their toll. Essentially, the credit crunch and subprime mess mean money is disappearing from the world’s financial systems. Less money in the system means less money to lend out. Less money to lend means fewer people will get mortgages because banks etc need to cover their losses and ensure they have enough capital to maintain liquidity.
If you think this has nothing to do with Canada, I have four letters for you:
CIBC.
Fewer qualified buyers mean fewer buyers.
Fewer new buyers in the system means reduced demand.
Reduced demand means the top of the market has been reached, which in turn leaves all those people expecting to profit with 2 options:
Sell, or hold.
People don’t overextend themselves buying “investment” properties to hold. Therefore, they will start to sell. And sell and sell and sell, in an ever more desperate attempt to find qualified buyers.
Instead of buyers chasing sellers, sellers will need to start chasing buyers.
Got it?
February 11th, 2008 at 12:46 pm
http://tinyurl.com/2b2dp6
* Much more affordable and luxurious than the newly launched and overpriced Pier development *”
Because $430k for a 1 bedroom ISN’T overpriced? lol…
February 11th, 2008 at 1:13 pm
Dramatically it has definitely not. Here is a report on exports from BC Stats export site. To quote:
“The value of BC origin exports has fallen
5.7% in the first ten months of 2007 compared
to the January to October period in 2006.”
Forestry is still 40% of exports. When in a recession this sucks for BC no matter how you spin it.
February 11th, 2008 at 1:56 pm
Obvious you don’t know how Stats Can reporting works. Really in one year you think B.C. is exporting more to other countries than the U.S. Your imagination is must be working overtime.
February 11th, 2008 at 2:10 pm
February 11th, 2008 at 2:27 pm
February 11th, 2008 at 2:37 pm
But that doesn’t mean you’re going to see a change right away in a big illiquid market like housing. It takes a while for those changes to roll downhill, just like it takes a while for a rebound to start benefiting the general population once we’ve hit bottom.
February 11th, 2008 at 2:50 pm
February 11th, 2008 at 3:15 pm
Sorry, couldn’t resist….
February 11th, 2008 at 3:21 pm
“That’s a bit like saying people who are alive today are immortal because they haven’t yet died.”
Hey man, that’s MY line!
Dosh
“Those statscan numbers are from 2006 - thats two years ago. Its possible that the ratio of products we sell to the US vs. the rest of the world has changed dramatically in that time.”
Way to deny reality buddy. When the statistics and what you WANT to be true disagree find a way to discredit the stats.
As I’ve said in the past it’s POSSIBLE that little green men from Uranus will come and start some bidding wars with their planet made of gold which will continue driving prices up for another 100 years. But it’s about as likely as a massive shift in BC’s economy that NOBODY AT ALL HAS NOTICED! That would be like moving BC place to Halifax without anyone noticing, such a drastic shift as you propose would have been covered by SOMEBODY you moron!
February 11th, 2008 at 3:22 pm
Clearly the Winter Olympics only go to world class cities and as a result house prices can only go up forever so Vancouverites spending $629,000 for a one bedroom today will be rich, and in the meantime those units can be rented for $1450 until the big payday.
Or something….
February 11th, 2008 at 3:25 pm
To Snark, et al. who are picking apart the chart.
IT IS A JOKE!
There is no way you could come up with a graph like that through statistical analysis. Everything is interrelated, if low interest rates drive up speculation then is that “interest rates” or “speculation”? You can’t separate elements that way.
February 11th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
Lived in Calgary during the ‘88 Olympics. The only thing that happened was tenants near the Olympic venue sites were evicted so the landlords could collect very high rent while the Olympics were on. There was so much talk how the real estate would go up because of the Olympics in Calgary. It didn’t happen and it is funny how the same silly real estate rumour is being mentioned today about Vancouver.
February 11th, 2008 at 4:42 pm
Dosh doesn’t read government stats and doesn’t realize some stats are reported on an annual basis and not on a monthly or quarterly basis. Total exports for 2006 was reported in 2007 and total exports for 2007 will be reported in 2008. This concept of lag time eludes them, that is why stats are 2 years old to them. LOL
February 11th, 2008 at 4:43 pm
Good grief. 656 square feet for nearly half a million? Seriously, screw that noise. Putting $100K down and doing a 40 year mortgage that’s still over $2k per month.
Right now you can get 1000 square feet for $1.1K per month rent in North Van.
That’s just downright silly.
February 11th, 2008 at 4:53 pm
We don’t have enough cultured people to be a cultural center like New York or London. What we have are a slog of pseudo-cultured newly-rich (from home equity withdrawals) who are letting their aspirations get ahead of reality. Most of these individuals believe that if they dress the part and talk in a certain manner, it means they’re cultured.
February 11th, 2008 at 4:55 pm
February 11th, 2008 at 4:56 pm
February 11th, 2008 at 4:58 pm
Dosh is right though. If the US goes into recession the percentage of non-US exports will increase. Though the total value of exports may not.
February 11th, 2008 at 4:58 pm
February 11th, 2008 at 5:33 pm
BC provincial government has export stats available for a fee. Stats Can publishes for free, with a lag time.
February 11th, 2008 at 5:38 pm
How do you figure this? If the U.S. goes into into recession this will cut exports to the U.S. from emerging countries like India and China, this will affect growth in these countries and thus weaken demand for imports from Canada.
February 11th, 2008 at 5:47 pm
I’m amazed that they don’t get it. Though perhaps I shouldn’t be amazed, given the stuff they’ve spewed out…
February 11th, 2008 at 5:55 pm
Yeh well I guess! What a brilliant statement. If 95% of our exports go to the US and 5 % to China, then it follows that if we lost all of our exports to the US 100% of our exports would got to China which means we would have an income based on 5% of our current. Is this a real discussion? Who is this Dosh anyways? Quote “He’s right”? Thats not the way he thinks, he thinks income is percentage! WTF? Bright is definitely not his middle name! Jesse your not that dumb right it was tongue in cheak I would hope!
February 11th, 2008 at 6:01 pm
February 11th, 2008 at 6:03 pm
And of the 40% that doesn’t, a fair portion end up in the U.S. eventually. The U.S. consumers 10 times more than China and India combined.
Those statscan numbers are from 2006 - thats two years ago. Its possible that the ratio of products we sell to the US vs. the rest of the world has changed dramatically in that time.
Let me get this straight. You think that export ratios can change dramatically in 18 months, but you believe in some immutable law that keeps demand for housing perpetually high. Clearly you are not debating in good faith.
February 11th, 2008 at 6:18 pm
According to the November 2007 edition of BC Stats’ “Exports” periodical (and yes, you have to be a subscriber), year-to-date the US imported 17.531 billion CAD from BC. Total BC exports, year to date were 28.929 billion CAD.
BC exports bound for the US as a percentage of total BC exports: 60.6%.
February 11th, 2008 at 6:21 pm
A lot of people have been buying up 2nd and 3rd properties with the prospect of a renter paying their retirement nest egg(s). What nobody is talking about is what happens when our employment levels rise to non-historical lows?
Another thought is how many assignments are still being flipped.
Thanks, but I’ll wait this one out. Prices are coming Way down over the next 5 years. I’m on the sidelines with a combined income that can afford much now, but much more later.
Tech boom, RE boom, they all collapse.
February 11th, 2008 at 6:43 pm
So your guess of 10 times more is pretty much dead-on in the case of BC products.
February 11th, 2008 at 7:38 pm
February 11th, 2008 at 7:42 pm
Not a renter, a greater fool (buyer). I think even the idiots buying today can see that there is no reasonable scenario where their properties can provide cash flow from rent.
Or are they even crazier than I thought?
February 11th, 2008 at 7:55 pm
Actually, it wasn’t a guess but a rounded statistic. Interesting that B.C. has similar ratios. And once again, don’t forget that many of our raw materials exported to China do return to the U.S. as finished goods. Don’t expect China to keep growing unabated if the U.S. falters. They have some nice bubbles of their own.
February 11th, 2008 at 8:44 pm
February 11th, 2008 at 8:56 pm
Which is why Asian markets reel every time the US equity markets take a hit. Whither be decoupling?
February 11th, 2008 at 8:58 pm
They’re like Dosh, they bought the whole “this is a planetary cultural capital. When the Olympics come, *everyone* will want to be here, and when that happens your property will be worth a fortune”.
Even smart people make bad choices. My old man sank a ton of money into Norel stock, figuring it would pay for my brother’s college fund. And we all know how THAT turned out….
February 11th, 2008 at 9:23 pm
Kinda like a circle jerk.
Vancouver Immigrants Screwing Each Other
February 11th, 2008 at 9:34 pm
We are always in need of industries to get jobs not to buy homes lots of people got jobs here since when ever they have start working,the question is are you able to buy home? being on bears side means no!you can not afford or you don’t like to buy or you don’t want to buy. jobs are growing every month did you buy anything since when ever.If market looks bub to you why did you miss the boat when prices were under control?????.
So if we double the export from now would you be able to buy?No!no!no.
What’s his point is no matter what you think of market but people from within provinces of canada,usa,and over seas are still buying.
Some cut out cinnamon rools
——————–
“How many of you are ready to buy a place granted the bank will give you a mortgage if prices drop like insanely fast?
I’m priced out right now. There is nothing I can do about it. Just gotta keep living life”.-Andreas
“Me, too. I’ve missed the boat and won’t be jumping excitedly onto any raft that comes by”.-evergreen
“you people should be buying instead of complaining - get into the houising market at what you can afford and stop worrying”.-anonymous
February 11th, 2008 at 9:36 pm
Could you let us know, from the BC export data you referred to, what the top 5 countries are that we export to (and the associated breakdown in percentages). If it’s too much of a hassle, or requires some number crunching, whatever, don’t worry about it. I’m just very surprised at seeing how little we export to China and India. So many keep referring to these countries when speaking of “decoupling” and how we’re going to avoid a recession here even if the US economy tanks.
February 11th, 2008 at 10:10 pm
For some reason the decoupling theory was taken as fact, when a simple reasonability test woudld have blown it out of the water. That is not to say that over longer periods of tiem (say decades), there will be a larger shifts away from U.S. production and consumption.
and how we’re going to avoid a recession here even if the US economy tanks
We won’t avoid it. Also, remember that the action is at the margins. Commodity prices are based on the global situation. Even if we didn’t sell a single 2×4 to the U.S, a U.S. recession would reduce the value of our exports.
February 11th, 2008 at 10:44 pm
Haha…
I was just in London on the weekend, and there is no possible way to compare Vancouver to London. We were at the Chelsea Liverpool match on Sunday, and on the walk there saw a Bentley followed by a Lambo followed by a Ferrari. So many supercars there it’s insane! Brand new Porsche’s, ever 4th car. Cars I’ve only seen in calendars and magazines.
The money in London comes from the huge number of world bank headquarters and other financial institutions… And the 2012 Olympics. Vancouver is home to… EA sports and the 2010 Olympics?
Oh, BTW, UK real estate is crashing big time.
February 11th, 2008 at 11:15 pm
What about parking?
half of the car on street and half on side walk.
what about streets structure?
too narrow.
did you see the police cars?
looks like fire fly.
except 2 street of central london did you see the rest of city?
whoop!
if you are genuine Vancouverites lived in Vancouver you should have say Vancouver British Columbia,Canada with any postal code is a BEST PLACE ON EARTH.
February 11th, 2008 at 11:31 pm
Hey, you forgot Lululemon!
And now, a Toll Brother’s daughter is walking the walk!
Florida Taking Its Toll (Brothers) On Daughter’s Condo
“You just can’t make this stuff up. Apparently even a big builder’s daughter can’t seem to keep faith in the Florida housing market. According to an SEC filing, Wendy Topkis, daughter of Toll Brothers co-founder and Vice-Chairman Bruce Toll, is walking away from a Florida condo, just like everyone else. A Toll Bros. condo!! The Palm Beach Post says it best: Et Tu Wendy?”
February 12th, 2008 at 12:33 am
February 12th, 2008 at 12:34 am
Just what is so surprising about it? What does BC produce that they can’t get from a closer source? India is practically on the other side of the planet, for heaven’s sake. Could this province please get over its incredible self-importance?
Russia (Siberia) is right on the border with China and not all that far from India, and Australia is much closer to both of them as well.
“Japan is Australia’s leading market for exports of goods and services ($35.5 billion in 2006-07), followed by China ($26.4 billion), the United States ($15.5 billion), the Republic of Korea ($14.9 billion) and New Zealand ($12.7 billion).”
Kinda figures.
February 12th, 2008 at 1:10 am
“Me, too. I’ve missed the boat and won’t be jumping excitedly onto any raft that comes by”.-evergreen
“you people should be buying instead of complaining - get into the houising market at what you can afford and stop worrying”.-anonymous
Complaining? I’m pretty happy living within my means.
There are more important things in life (like family, good health, peace of mind) than home ownership.
February 12th, 2008 at 5:57 am
“‘I’m just very surprised at seeing how little we export to China and India’
Just what is so surprising about it? What does BC produce that they can’t get from a closer source? India is practically on the other side of the planet, for heaven’s sake. Could this province please get over its incredible self-importance?”
I’m not sure if you’re perhaps implying that I believe that BC is “the best place on earth” or something. The export numbers quoted were much smaller than I would have anticipated. That’s bloody all. Guess I’m a little thick. And I’m guessing maybe you need a hug.
February 12th, 2008 at 6:17 am
February 12th, 2008 at 7:16 am
Being on the bears side means you’ve had a look at the economy and heard the local RE zombies chanting “best place on earth, buy now or be priced out forever” and decided “huh, this doesn’t look like a very good investment.” It’s got nothing to do with your job.
LIke evergreen I’ve been priced out. Or at least I’ve been priced out of anything but a shitty Surrey condo I’d have to take a 40 year mortgage to purchase. I supposed it would be better to say the things I could afford, I wouldn’t want to buy.
And who the f**k would be stupid enough to follow financial advice posted by “anonymous”. Yeah that’s the way to wealth.
February 12th, 2008 at 7:19 am
So there you go…. in both of the world’s great cultural capitals, RE is crashing.
But maybe Vancouver is a GALACTIC cultural capital??
February 12th, 2008 at 7:53 am
Do you have a link for that? It’s been 85-86% for years, including last year according to this government link:
http://www.investincanada.com/director.aspx?tabid=2064