What caused the Vancouver real estate boom?
Speculation: Prices are going up, therefore prices will go up. Get in before you’re priced out forever. Its the only way to get really rich without even trying. Prices are practically guaranteed to go up forever. This time its different here.
Pent-up demand: Hey, we’re laid back in BC. We didn’t think about buying until everyone else thought about buying.
Rich Foreigners: We love it, we’ll take two, we don’t care what it costs. Do you have any magic beans for sale? We’re investing in magic beans as well, thats how we got so rich.
Leaky Condos: Its like NEW now! And its cheaper than the others! Lets buy it!
Low interest rates: Heck, the bank’s practically paying us to get rich.
Population growth: Ok, so population growth isn’t so hot. Still, you have to admit SOME people are moving here, just less than before the 90’s correction.
Income growth: Lets see now.. I could take on a paper route, mow a few lawns on the weekend and apply for that night watch job at the construction site.. maybe sell my plasma on the side… Yes, honey, we can make that mortgage payment!
Illegal drugs: Dude! heheh. This condo is wiiiicked! It’s like totally 3D! Quit bogarting the joint, pass the dutchie man! whoa. I can feel the shrooms kicking in, where do I sign?
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February 11th, 2008 at 7:36 am
Rennie Marketing
February 11th, 2008 at 8:40 am
February 11th, 2008 at 8:46 am
what about you accusing some one without anecdotal shhs.
- yes, I rent.
- yes, I did not call the top.
- yes, I did not predict a 7 year boom.
- yes, I have been wrong before
- yes, I did quit my blog.
“Here, tell these people somethin they dont know about me”
vhb peace out
VHB
february 7,2008 at8.36pm
February 11th, 2008 at 8:55 am
February 11th, 2008 at 8:56 am
February 11th, 2008 at 9:02 am
February 11th, 2008 at 9:02 am
Hey VHB, I liked your chipman graph the other day, is there any way you can put some of that stuff on a public blog site? You don’t have to update regularly or allow comments but it’d be nice to have access to some of your useful info from the past.
February 11th, 2008 at 9:03 am
Population
British columbia
Total (2007) 4,402,931 (est.)
GV
2,116,581( 2006) confirmed
Vancouver(2007)
City 611,869
Metro 2,289,900 (2007)-2,116,581(2006)=what
future projection
Population Comparison
Vancouver City Surrey/White
2001 578,993 382,350
2006 618,469 434,431
2011 655,926 484,225
2016 683,686 532,034
2021 707,656 579,802
2026 726,702 622,523
2031 741,930 659,560
*No more land mass *
2003 - 35,850
2004 - 39,721
2005 - 48,444
2006 - 54,952
2007 - 54,952 (53% increase over 2003)
2008 - 56,800 (forecast)
February 11th, 2008 at 9:07 am
If you have one floor that covers 3000 sq feet and you turn that into 50 floors that cover 3000 sq feet each, what do you call that? Seen all those cranes on the skyline? What do you think they’re doing there? They ain’t just for pretty!
February 11th, 2008 at 9:11 am
you need to take a day off and give your head little rest have a good day.
February 11th, 2008 at 9:14 am
I don’t know when I am dealing with main crocodiles why I have to fight with multiple fishes,
Answer to your question on this point is do your own reserch,I can only answer your question when I will be free.
February 11th, 2008 at 9:38 am
I said many times you’re our canary in the coal mine, and today you seem a little… humourless. Are you feeling a little lightheaded?
You having problems making the mortgage payment, buddy? Maybe getting a bit nervous because it’s looking like that ‘investment’ property might not be worth as much as you thought?
I think it’s safe to say the bitchier our buddy Krrish gets, the further from the top we get in the Van market.
Love ya, krrish…. see you at the bottom of the curve
February 11th, 2008 at 9:41 am
Everyone here wants to read what VHB has to say whereas not one person here cares what you have to say because you’re an idiot.
The more you write the more you prove this point. So go buy a leaky condo, it’s clearly a great time for you to get in the market, TROLL.
February 11th, 2008 at 9:47 am
nicely put, succinct without the excess verbosity usually found in satv/k/? posts…
February 11th, 2008 at 10:01 am
Dag-nabbit Muir! I thought we agreed we wouldn’t reveal each others secret identity!
I stand by my chart. Those stats are completely accurate and a reliable source to base a buying decision on. I can tell you I went through some considerable discomfort pulling them out though.
February 11th, 2008 at 10:09 am
February 11th, 2008 at 10:16 am
February 11th, 2008 at 10:25 am
February 11th, 2008 at 10:28 am
February 11th, 2008 at 10:36 am
Not going to happen. IF the US goes into recession it might have an effect back east, but Vancouver is different, our customers are all over the world and we’re not manufacturing widgets. We are a cultural center like New York or London as much as some of the bears here hate to hear that.
February 11th, 2008 at 10:39 am
He doesn’t own property, he never has and he never will.
He also has nothing relevant to offer but he doesn’t let that stop him.
Once he finally takes the hint he’ll end up posting in a knitters anonymous group, telling them to buy wool before they get priced out forever.
I know of several people who’ve made money buying and selling wool, the wisemans are all lining up to do it.
The cost of wool can only go up because of the Olympics and,um, the boomers are getting old and we all know old people like to knit.. buy now or you’ll never be rich.
February 11th, 2008 at 10:40 am
February 11th, 2008 at 10:43 am
February 11th, 2008 at 10:47 am
Oh… I see what you did there…
February 11th, 2008 at 10:52 am
Dosh, you would have learned a lot if you got past grade ten.
B.C.’s industries are forestry, mining, tourism, movies and drugs. These are all dependent on the U.S. you imbecile. When the U.S. put additional tariffs on lumber it really hurt B.C.’s economy.
Why is Vancouver like New York or London? Because it has streets and buildings too? How does it compare in population? How many corporate head offices are in Vancouver?
Are you sure it’s not more like Indianapolis or Cleveland? Cleveland also has streets and buildings and people who live there think it’s a great city, just like you.
Maybe Dosh is just Krissh using spell check.
February 11th, 2008 at 10:52 am
February 11th, 2008 at 10:55 am
I will teach him economy some time in my free time
February 11th, 2008 at 10:56 am
February 11th, 2008 at 10:59 am
February 11th, 2008 at 11:07 am
February 11th, 2008 at 11:10 am
“this chart is misleading”
Holy man
February 11th, 2008 at 11:12 am
February 11th, 2008 at 11:12 am
February 11th, 2008 at 11:15 am
if it good to be an idiot carry on,I am heading for work.
February 11th, 2008 at 11:17 am
February 11th, 2008 at 11:23 am
http://tinyurl.com/2b2dp6
* Much more affordable and luxurious than the newly launched and overpriced Pier development *
Ask the seller about special payment incentives!
February 11th, 2008 at 11:23 am
February 11th, 2008 at 11:26 am
Dosh, have you ever been east of the Rockies?
I just got back from NYC. My boyfriend just moved from NYC. I spent 10 years in Toronto, and have travelled.
Honey. Vancover is NOT a cultural center. There’s a *small* opera here, and a *small* art gallery. I’m sorry but except for Bill Reid, and Douglas Coupland Van really has nothing to offer culturally.
Look, I hate Toronto and even I would be the first to admit it’s got WAY more culture then Van. So do Montreal, Quebec City and HALIFAX for God’s sake.
I’m also sorry to tell you this, but Van’s not a particularly cosmopolitan town, either. There are a lot of Asians and Indians here, but that’s it. It’s not really an “all over the world” kind of place.
You’re right. We don’t fasion widgets for the Americans. Asians do. So… if America goes into recession, and consumers stop buying widgets, what happens to all those “rich foreigners”?
Sorry buddy, Van’s not a cultural capital, but it’s cute that you and so many others think so. What, exactly makes Vancouver a cultural capital?
February 11th, 2008 at 11:29 am
February 11th, 2008 at 11:31 am
There can’t be a seam of granite in a 1,000 mile radius, what with all the countertops.
February 11th, 2008 at 11:44 am
February 11th, 2008 at 11:44 am
2006 total B.C. exports to all countries 34,823,150
2006 total B.C exports to the U.S. 21,297,850
60% of all B.C. exports go to the U.S.
75% of all Canadian exports go to the U.S.
February 11th, 2008 at 11:59 am
BWAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
February 11th, 2008 at 12:16 pm
February 11th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
Here’s what I know: There is unprecedented demand for real estate in Vancouver and people are still buying. Prices are the highest they’ve ever been and people are still buying. People that ignored the fear and bought have done very well so far.
February 11th, 2008 at 12:23 pm
February 11th, 2008 at 12:24 pm
so far….. can it continue?
OT but i’ve noticed that a lot of metro vancouver young gangsters have opted for the early retirement program….
February 11th, 2008 at 12:25 pm
So are you saying that everyone that bought before the run up has sold? How exactly have they done very well? Unless you have the cash in your hands it’s called paper profits. I know many who did VERY well during the dot com boom with employer stock options, I’m sure you can guess how they are doing now.
February 11th, 2008 at 12:27 pm
Have you listened to Jurock lately? He seems to disagree with you regarding Vancouver condos. Or is he just another bear?
February 11th, 2008 at 12:27 pm
February 11th, 2008 at 12:36 pm
Look pal, everything is cyclical. That includes real estate. You’re so locked into your own mind set, you’ll refute hard data with “it’s possible that”. Don’t you think it would have made headlines if all of a sudden we were selling more lumber to China then we’ve been selling ot the U.S.?
You’re correct on a few points:
1) There has been unprecedented demand for RE in Van.
2) Prices are the highest they’ve ever been.
However when I look at things like immigration patterns and income levels, it seems pretty clear that the locals have been selling themselves and each other a bill of goods.
Sooner or later, external factors are going to take their toll. Essentially, the credit crunch and subprime mess mean money is disappearing from the world’s financial systems. Less money in the system means less money to lend out. Less money to lend means fewer people will get mortgages because banks etc need to cover their losses and ensure they have enough capital to maintain liquidity.
If you think this has nothing to do with Canada, I have four letters for you:
CIBC.
Fewer qualified buyers mean fewer buyers.
Fewer new buyers in the system means reduced demand.
Reduced demand means the top of the market has been reached, which in turn leaves all those people expecting to profit with 2 options:
Sell, or hold.
People don’t overextend themselves buying “investment” properties to hold. Therefore, they will start to sell. And sell and sell and sell, in an ever more desperate attempt to find qualified buyers.
Instead of buyers chasing sellers, sellers will need to start chasing buyers.
Got it?
February 11th, 2008 at 12:46 pm
http://tinyurl.com/2b2dp6
* Much more affordable and luxurious than the newly launched and overpriced Pier development *”
Because $430k for a 1 bedroom ISN’T overpriced? lol…
February 11th, 2008 at 1:13 pm
Dramatically it has definitely not. Here is a report on exports from BC Stats export site. To quote:
“The value of BC origin exports has fallen
5.7% in the first ten months of 2007 compared
to the January to October period in 2006.”
Forestry is still 40% of exports. When in a recession this sucks for BC no matter how you spin it.
February 11th, 2008 at 1:56 pm
Obvious you don’t know how Stats Can reporting works. Really in one year you think B.C. is exporting more to other countries than the U.S. Your imagination is must be working overtime.
February 11th, 2008 at 2:10 pm
February 11th, 2008 at 2:27 pm
February 11th, 2008 at 2:37 pm
But that doesn’t mean you’re going to see a change right away in a big illiquid market like housing. It takes a while for those changes to roll downhill, just like it takes a while for a rebound to start benefiting the general population once we’ve hit bottom.
February 11th, 2008 at 2:50 pm
February 11th, 2008 at 3:15 pm
Sorry, couldn’t resist….
February 11th, 2008 at 3:21 pm
“That’s a bit like saying people who are alive today are immortal because they haven’t yet died.”
Hey man, that’s MY line!
Dosh
“Those statscan numbers are from 2006 - thats two years ago. Its possible that the ratio of products we sell to the US vs. the rest of the world has changed dramatically in that time.”
Way to deny reality buddy. When the statistics and what you WANT to be true disagree find a way to discredit the stats.
As I’ve said in the past it’s POSSIBLE that little green men from Uranus will come and start some bidding wars with their planet made of gold which will continue driving prices up for another 100 years. But it’s about as likely as a massive shift in BC’s economy that NOBODY AT ALL HAS NOTICED! That would be like moving BC place to Halifax without anyone noticing, such a drastic shift as you propose would have been covered by SOMEBODY you moron!