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February 2008 – prices and listings up

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February saw a large number of listings and prices edge up yet again in Vancouver. Overall listings are up 26.2% compared to last February and sales are down 6.4%. The REBGV benchmark price for a single family home in Vancouver is now up to $761,342. The Townhouse benchmark price is $472.147 while the Condo benchmark is $387,032.

Get all the stats broken down by sub-area at Paul Boenisch’s site.

This certainly is an interesting market and one thing so far is true – it really is different here. A year ago other western markets were chugging along with Vancouver, but some of our neighbors are seeing some changes. Calgary, Victoria and Seattle markets have shown some weakness lately and even closer in its possible that the western blessing is fading. North Vancouver has seen a 2.38% price drop in the SFH benchmark and the Fraser Valley is looking less robust these days as well. Keep an eye on Mohicans blog for Fraser Valley analysis (not up at time of this posting)

There has been some news lately of fewer Canadians and fewer BC residents planning to buy in the next few years. Will this along with rising listings translate into downward pressure on prices as it has in other countries?

[poll=11]

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Vancouver real estat

Hello Pope,

I can see your point. I also run a weblog and I know that irrelevant comments can sometimes be a pain in the neck. I regularly read real estate related weblogs and, yes, I often comment on interesting posts. I know that linking search terms to my website from the comments will not increase my Google ranking. I do agree that preventing Google from counting irrelevant links is a good thing. I do not intend to spam weblogs, that is why I always try to be on-topic. If you find that any of my comments are irrelevant I encourage you to delete them. I do the same when I moderate my blog. Oops, I've just realized that this comment is by far the most irrelevant one I've written in ages… 🙂

Jay

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Drachen

So Evergreen, what you're essentially saying is it's only ever possible to predict the future in hindsight?

Not very helpful.

Also, "People die but we know that they do not all die from the same causes."

Not true. We all die for the same reason, the route we take to get there varies. Likewise bubbles all die for the same reason, because they ARE. Perhaps a bit too existential for you but hey, that's not my problem.

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evergreen

Drachen, Whatever the differences in our view and despite your perverse need to taunt others and indulge in playschool fantasy of dishing out imaginary grades, I have to admire you for your high work rate in this blog. I have no problems with bears using a well tested model based on the simple premise of cycles of booms and busts. I subscribed to that model until lately (translation: I stopped being a bear). It defies logic and imagination that since 2004 Canada and BC can still stand tall when all around have succumbed. That’s why I believe we now need a more versatile model in order to capture more accurately what’s happening in the commodity-based Canadian economy. Everything might crash for different reasons but because they all crash we can falsely conclude that they crashed for similar reasons (were they… Read more »

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Drachen

"it will be harder to borrow in the close future"

It already is, the BOC keeps lowering prime but the banks refuse to lower their key lending rates. On top of that it's becoming harder and harder to qualify for 'discount' rates. I would imagine the upwards push applies to all loan types, people applying for new loans will face increasingly higher rates or may be bumped beyond a 'bankable' category of risk entirely.

Especially in the case of condos, in Miami many of the major banks have blacklisted certain developments, they will not give a mortgage to anyone buying in those developments period.

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visio

Let's go bak to the credit crunch the US is experiencing and take a peak at the Canadian banking sector: CIBC, BMO and Royal Bank (for now) are having trouble with the Asset Backed Papers (really toilet paper since they worth nothing). In order to clean the mess they need more money in (savings,gics etc) than out (credit cards, loan accounts, mortages) so guess what: it will be harder to borrow in the close future – how can you buy something when you don't have money? Or to pay that overpriced shoe box you bought in the last 3-5 years. Ohhhh shit, the mortage rate has to be renew… and is not 2-3 % as in 2003, it's 8 and growing. Do you still have money for food?

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Drachen

Ahh evergreen,

The words are there but the underlying issues are lacking.

Remember when I said he had the broad strokes but didn't go into the finer details? That's where you run into trouble.

His logic was based on an assumption that Vancouver would perform similarly to other North American and world cities which have been in the same bubble with us. Your argument is just a re-hashing of the typical bull, "we're different" rhetoric. I'll give you 50 points for style but minus several thousand for good thinking.

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evergreen

…but yeah in the broad strokes he’s got a very rational system going. Certainly this kind of argument is infinitely more useful than the typical: bulls “I don’t think it will fall and if it does it will only fall a little.” bears “Do you have any data or evidence to back you up?” Great, a master template exists! I’ll use the scenario that Anonymous mused over: …On the other hand, if it ends up being just a matter of Vancouver prices having reached unaffordable levels, I think 20% of current would be the stablizing point. and rewrite Betamax’s: A 20% drop would cause speculators to bail and cause a drop in employment and consumer spending, making any slowdown/recession worse. The virtuous cycle becomes vicious and prices fall further before hitting bottom A 20% drop caused speculators to bail out,… Read more »

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blueskies

3 dozen scooters

in pink with Hello Kitty graffiti

yep enuf to scare the crap outa you! 🙂

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Strataman

blueskies "presumably non-tattooed home owner type bikers" You have never known fear until your followed by 3 dozen scooters!

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blueskies

you’ll meet some real bikers! 🙂

presumably non-tattooed home owner type bikers

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Strataman

blueskies "looks like a biker.." Take that back dirtbag or you'll meet some real bikers! 🙂

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blueskies

http://tinyurl.com/2opkzu

picture of Cameron Muir at the top.

looks like a biker 🙂

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admin

The condo tower on hold isn't Domain, Its Brio in Abbotsford. Here's the CBC news video clip. I'm adding that to the free-for-all and posting it early.

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Asun

Wow, check out Paul's number for today. I guess the 3-day bull run is over.

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Anonymous

Inventory jumping all the expiries from end of month accounted for and more…sell sell sell! 🙂
http://tinyurl.com/2hjdjd
Thanks Paul!

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Snark

DoMain's been under construction for quite a while. I can't believe they have no overhang on that building – it looks like the same design as all those leakers from the early 80's.

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Anonymous

DoMain – does anyone remember how long that's been in construction? Seems like a long time – 2 years? How long does it normally take to crank out a building like that?

They've been blocking the right lane for a long time – 1 minute delay per driver, for thousands of drivers 😛

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bdk

Not to say a company that has $750 million in projects couldn’t run into difficulty.
It’s just that Domain is really small time in relation to their other projects.

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bdk

Domain is the Holborn group, they are also doing the Ritz Carlton. They have deep pockets.

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ladyblue

Hey Franko – I'm with you – but I think it just means there's not enough bulls on Rob's blog for Drachen to argue with – I just stopped by for a little conversation – not to get attacked

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franko

Hey Drachen and ladyblue.

To see a couple of bears duking it out over some stalemate situation must mean that you're really pumped, or that it must be getting a bit crowded in the bear pit.

Anyway, as a third bear, I'm asking you to knock it off already. Enough is enough.

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Warren

Funny that projects are stalling out in the Main St. area while its full steam ahead in the DTES. I guess it has to do with the development companies involved, but wow.

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ladyblue

oh – I'm sorry – didn't know that it was "your" side – don't want to be on it with you – maybe I'll transfer over to a bull I simply made a comment about the news – and you decide to jump all over me – trying to prove how smart you are only, you don't have a stat or a figure to back it up either – because there aren't any – we have no idea how much equity Vancouverites have in their homes today you consider my logic fuzzy -I consider yours ridiculous – because I live here, I look around every day, and no one has been "sitting" on their equity – they've been spending like it's the gold rush (my note about taking out a home equity loan to buy a hummer is a true… Read more »

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vanguy

My guess for the condo project that is paused would be: DoMain corner of Main/12th. Just a guess, but man that sure is a slowww project. If I'm right I would say that the Mt Pleasant condo build-up is slowing… Dwell – show rooms; but never started Alyse – show rooms, but never started Sophia – 85% complete; project in receivership Jacobsen – show rooms have been up for nearly a year; construction started. Domain – construction started; work progressing slowly Stella – good looking project; behind schedule; but progressing. As to my earlier post, if a receiver can only borrow at ~25%APR to finish a project, then any of these guys who are tight for cash must be thinking that the $dollars don't add up to make a good margin. Maybe it's easier to throw in the towel, ie.… Read more »

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Drachen

Ladyblue Also, I just thought I'd mention in response to your tirade against joe (not a pseudo of mine btw). There are generally two reasons why people devolve to insults; 1) they can't create a solid argument so resort to ad homenim attacks 2) they are frustrated at their counterpart's inability to recognize very obvious and simple truths and unleash their frustration in the form of insults Next time you score a "victory" in a debate maybe you should think about it and see if you might be missing something obvious. Also you're not a "messenger" you created that data point out of thin air and blind guesswork which is not usually the best kind of point to try to defend in a debate. You have no rationale for your argument except that you believe it which is about as… Read more »

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