Friday Free for All!
At the end of each week we do an open-topic Friday free-for-all post here at VancouverCondo.info – this is our chance to recap some recent stories and share links and anecdotes on the local market and global economy. Here are a few links to start off the discussion:
- Eden Sophia superintendent comments on project losses
- Zillow Canada? David G says maybe eventually, but not this year
- You’re getting a raise! Wages predicted to grow in BC
- Fewer sales, more listings means more options for buyers
- Canada’s big banks can reclaim the risky loans market
- US foreclosures hurting neighbors refinancing efforts
- CNN video: Arson as a way out of housing debt
- The Feds worst nightmare
So what are you seeing out there? Post your news, links and anecdotes here!
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March 19th, 2008 at 12:10 pm
LMAO, DAMAGED DAN: $800K IN PROFIT SAY YOU DA FOOL!
March 17th, 2008 at 12:10 pm
Betamax, Freako, appreciate your comments. That was a nifty example on evacuation. Discretion is always the better part of valour especially in such an expensive market and in such tricky and difficult times.
March 17th, 2008 at 9:57 am
Especially, with financial and property purchases or investments, roughly getting the timing correct within a reasonable time period (say, +/- one year or so) allows for less hasty exits or entrances.
Yes, obviously good timing is better than poor timing. But we have to settle for second best, which is knowing whether a particular market is overpriced or underpriced. That is all you need to take action.
If it was calculated that an avalanche was likely to crumble on top of a village. They have a projected date, but due to the chaotic nature of many factors, it has a large band of uncertainty. This band of uncertainty could be improved through expensive research, but why bother? The resulting action is the same no matter what: evacuation. It is more important to know IF it will turn into an avanlanche. The timing would be gravy of course, but we take what we have.
March 17th, 2008 at 1:28 am
I think most of us bears have been wrong about the duration of the bubble, but we relied on common sense and logic in our analysis — and neither of those have much to do with the bubble psychology.
When the Canadian bubble inevitably busts, the trolls will show up here for a while and claim that the bears were only right after being wrong for much longer. But after a while and as the carnage continues, the trolls will disappear and never be heard from again.
Some will change their names and revisit as ardent converts when the collapse becomes commonplace, because they’re herd thinkers at heart. The earth is irrefutably flat, until everyone else decides it’s round after all.
March 16th, 2008 at 10:50 pm
Just because they’ve been wrong this long doesn’t mean they will never be right. Knowing something is going to happen is a lot easier than knowing precisely WHEN something is going to happen.
True. But you don’t want to be too far out with the estimates. For example, if you can guess the IQ scores or Math exam marks of students A, B, C (after teaching them for a semester) within a narrow range (say, less than +/- one standard deviation), then it means that you’ve understood better their underlying abilities compared to someone who’s guessed outside this range (greater than +/- one standard deviation).
Especially, with financial and property purchases or investments, roughly getting the timing correct within a reasonable time period (say, +/- one year or so) allows for less hasty exits or entrances.
Btw, this post is not meant to criticise anyone.
March 16th, 2008 at 8:41 pm
With BS gone, is Lehman next? I think the knows how bad it is, and are trying to keep the banking system from collapsing, all without causing a panic. But Vancouver RE just keeps on appreciating.
March 16th, 2008 at 8:39 pm
Vancouver’s prosperity is definitely affected by China’s growth. The Shanghai stock market is now down 38% peak to trough. A few people must be hurting now. These are not exactly experienced or sophisticated investors. I wonder if panic selling will set in at some point.
March 16th, 2008 at 7:46 pm
De we have another word for something selling for 1% of what is was supposed to be worth a couple of weeks ago?
Maybe not a word but the phrase “too big to fail, too big to bail” might be more like it. While the Fed is bailing them out, through JPM, it might not work. This was a panic move by the Fed to prevent widespread chaos in the global credit markets, eventually even they’ll run out of fingers to plug the holes in the dam.
March 16th, 2008 at 6:29 pm
There is now a 100% chance that the 2010 Olympics will be a bust
March 16th, 2008 at 6:18 pm
######__SHELL OVERSTATED RESERVES AGAIN!!!
http://siliconinvestor.advfn.c.....d=24409471
March 16th, 2008 at 5:32 pm
Wow! JP Morgan buying Bear Sterns is huge!
Yeah, just don’t call it a collapse and we’ll all be fine. De we have another word for something selling for 1% of what is was supposed to be worth a couple of weeks ago?
March 16th, 2008 at 5:28 pm
If you’ve been wrong for this long, shouldn’t that be the garner some attention?
First off let me say I agree with your lead-in. It doesn’t matter what side of the debate you’re on, if you’re relying on insults you’re only making your point weaker.
But let me come back to the ‘wrong this long’ point. Anyone who can pinpoint the collapse of speculative market would be extremely rich – they would know to buy in even though fundamentals don’t support their investment, because they would know the exact right time to exit the market. Know anyone who has that ability?
Unfortunately the longer that forecasts of a market correction are wrong while fundamentals move farther and farther apart doesn’t mean that a correction is less likely to happen – it means that when it does happen it’s likely to be all the more dramatic.
Otherwise the flipside of that logic would be correct- In the US people have been calling the bottom of their housing market correction for two years. Just because they’ve been wrong this long doesn’t mean they will never be right. Knowing something is going to happen is a lot easier than knowing precisely WHEN something is going to happen.
March 16th, 2008 at 5:27 pm
this can happen here!
http://tinyurl.com/2vkqjd
notice hoe fast this seized up…….
March 16th, 2008 at 5:10 pm
GOLD IS UP TO 1,020 AND SILVER 21.00
GOLD IS GOING TO 1,650.00 AND SILVER TO 50.00 BY XMAS
March 16th, 2008 at 4:18 pm
Holy crap! Bear stearns just got bought by JP morgan for 2bucks a share!! They basically went bankrupt overnight! Interest rates have gotta be going to Japan levels. Can’t wait to see BMO and CIBC share prices reaction tomorrow!
March 16th, 2008 at 1:23 pm
..sorry, wrong sucky winter month, you know what I mean.
November, February, hard to tell them apart around here. (clearly I can’t).
March 16th, 2008 at 1:22 pm
I’ve seen lot’s of agruments, links to articles, and colourful graphs in support of out why it should crash, but never (unless I’ve missed it) has anyone looked into why their theories have yet to play out(other than the odd reference to grow-ops and condo owners in vancouver being generally stupid).
I don’t know what you are looking after, but what I know for sure is that there is a runaway train. I also know that it won’t end well. I thought the train would have crashed by now, but it hasn’t. We could analyze why until the cows come home, but why bother? All we know need to predict the end game is that it is a runaway train.
If you’ve been wrong for this long, shouldn’t that be the garner some attention?
What kind of attention, and why? If it is a runaway train, it will crash. It either is or isn’t a runaway train. If it crashes (enough to bring real prices back to say 2003 level) next year, or the year after, or the year after doesn’t really change anything.
Maybe you intend to argue that the the fact that this train hasn’t crashed yet, it is actually in control. Well, then how do you explain the fact that it has been picking up speed all along (higher real prices, worsened price/income, worsened affordability, worsened price/rent)?
March 16th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
This is a subscription based Business daily but allows free online reading 12 hours daily from 3AM to 3PM (Pacific Western Time):
HK property
The report refers to top-tier HK houses going for HK$300m (about C$35m).
March 16th, 2008 at 12:43 pm
For those who are locked out of the “spin blog”:
For the week ending March 15 there were 1,799 new listings (up) and 764 sales (down), for a sell/list of 42.47% (down).
March 16th, 2008 at 12:32 pm
Price drops shouldn’t be too far away,however,the RE pumpers will call it:
“Improved affordability”.
March 16th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
Comment by moldcity
2008-03-16 11:37:45
I’m planning on subletting out my rental just to get out of town for November (I really hate November in this town anyways). I’m not going to get greedy, just cover my bills – I wonder how many others have the same plan as me and how ‘owners’ are going to compete with that?
***
Err, November?
March 16th, 2008 at 12:11 pm
“If you’ve been wrong for this long, should’nt that be the garner of some attention?”
Now let me get this straight.
Although the fundamentals for our market continue to deteriorate at an alarming rate, we should be safe now and prices will continue their climb to unimmaginable heights because it defied all rational logic for the past 3 years.
Sorry, I’m quite aware that any response to an author of such nonsense may be entirely futile….just could’nt help myself.
March 16th, 2008 at 11:37 am
Olympics being only months away at that point might create another delay as people try and “cash in” on the “2 week windfall” of renting their units
I agree, barring some catastrophe I don’t see prices crashing hard until after the olympics – thats when the bill comes due and people start seeing things in the cold wet light of day. Some will be able to get terrific prices for rentals during the games, but just like Salt Lake City many won’t and will have to settle for a lot less or have their units empty.
I’m planning on subletting out my rental just to get out of town for November (I really hate November in this town anyways). I’m not going to get greedy, just cover my bills – I wonder how many others have the same plan as me and how ‘owners’ are going to compete with that?
March 16th, 2008 at 11:18 am
“I have a question – for the bears who are convinced the crash is coming – why hasn’t it happened yet?”
A few reasons, as far as I can tell. Rates are still low, new products(40 years, zero down) leading to more people in the market (including more speculators), local economic boom (construction/olympics).
I believe what we’ve seen locally is simply unsustainable. Our local economy will look much different once many of the current projects are complete (especially with a US recession). Inflation is coming, there’s no doubt about it (if you disagree, go fill your gas tank and get back to me), and with it we will see higher interest rates over time (still a few rate cuts left this year to try to help out the east). Also saturation, as with any market, when the supply exceeds demand downward pressure is placed on prices to reduce the supply (basic economics).
When will it happen? It’s anybody’s guess. Mine is the fall of 2009. When we’ll see many of the aforementioned reasons reverse and thus see an overdue correction in values. Olympics being only months away at that point might create another delay as people try and “cash in” on the “2 week windfall” of renting their units (ie. above craigslist post $21,000 in two weeks, doesn’t sound like much in that case).
March 16th, 2008 at 9:38 am
“If you’ve been wrong for this long, shouldn’t that be the garner some attention?”
I think it may be pretty simple. The narrative elements of a positive local markets have been much stronger than the negative elements. Most participant in real-estate are emotionally invested average people who react much more to the story than to the fundamentals.
March 16th, 2008 at 9:33 am
“If you’ve been wrong for this long, shouldn’t that be the garner some attention?” What that means is bears are wrong on timing, it doesn’t mean that the basic argument is not valid. Ever watched snow build up on mountain passes? I worked with some electronic timing devices for avalanche removal, which theoretically told the avalanche control crew when they should bring dow a potential avalanche. Sometimes despite all the data saying it would now work, the crew would be unsuccessfull. However in many cases it then happened spontaneously several weeks later, or was able to be (controlled) initiated several days later. Your argument is that they should have ignored the potential after they failed to initiate a controlled avalanche.
Strataman
March 16th, 2008 at 9:21 am
Sorry messed up the italics for the above comment. Top paragraph is the quote rest are my comments.
March 16th, 2008 at 9:21 am
I have a question – for the bears who are convinced the crash is coming – why hasn’t it happened yet? I’ve seen lot’s of agruments, links to articles, and colourful graphs in support of out why it should crash, but never (unless I’ve missed it) has anyone looked into why their theories have yet to play out(other than the odd reference to grow-ops and condo owners in vancouver being generally stupid).
Yup that’s an excellent question. I think we’re in a powerful feedback loop with a lot of momentum. The fact that prices have gone up for 5 years and people still believe they will continue to go up (psychology seems to be shifting lately though). We’ve got the cultural meme of “Prices will go up until the Olympics”. We’ve got loads of jobs (lots of them in construction and real estate). We’ve also got the lowest interest rates in a generation. We’ve also had loosening credit even within the last year.
In my mind it’s like a natural system where a population of some animal explodes and then a bunch of other coincidences delay the inevitable swing the other way for a while. New food sources or whatever.
It feels exactly the same as the dot com bubble. I remember having “all new paradigm” discussions about that when the values of the stocks came into questions. That kind of reasoning was way more compelling for the dot com bubble that it is for this real esate bubble. We still have plenty of room to densify before we become like a New York or San Fran or whatever.
March 16th, 2008 at 8:07 am
Mish is looking for data and links to do a piece on Vancouver.
http://preview.tinyurl.com/3aqn3e
Check out the comments section under his ABCP posting on Canada.
March 16th, 2008 at 7:55 am
’ve just started following these blogs, and I’m finding useful information and coherent arguments are losing the turf war to name calling and ego-driven bull/bear baiting. I’m going to think a lot less of your opinion about real estate if you can’t get it across without calling someone a ‘retard’.
OK. And the nature of your post is ‘content rich’ or ……… ?
If you’ve been wrong for this long, shouldn’t that be the garner some attention?
OK. And the nature of your post is ‘content rich’ or ……… ?
March 16th, 2008 at 5:02 am
“Vancouver hasn’t yet run out of fools with money, or should I say who can borrow money. It appears that we more of them than anywhere else. That’s what’s “different here”.”
patriotz:
Yes, we have more fools and more “creative” financing available to the fools through mortgage brokers, but more importantly we have an abundance of certain cultures that will sell their mothers to *own* Those from the UK in particular.
March 16th, 2008 at 12:48 am
“But there isn’t an unlimited supply of them. When they run out, that’s when it happens”.
That’s mean no body is going to quit their job,as long as peoples are at work it’s never going to happen now go for shoping.what color you guys like in your living room?
March 16th, 2008 at 12:35 am
So.. really.. who is buying now???
Anyone has a more solid answer to this question?
March 16th, 2008 at 12:26 am
Definitely it’s me above,Let’s all say it together.
Vancouver,b.c.”the best place on earth”.-final
March 16th, 2008 at 12:17 am
Good Morning Vancouver
Let this track hit ya ear drums once again
“Vancover,B.C. the best place on earth”-MIND IT COMPULSORY
Thanx every one enjoy your SUNDAY http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H25lz7gchaw
March 16th, 2008 at 12:15 am
The same reason why it hadn’t happened yet in Calgary and Edmonton a year ago, and why it hadn’t happened yet in the US a couple of years ago.
And why it hadn’t happened yet in Vancouver this time in 1981.
Or why it hadn’t happened yet to Bear Stearns a week ago.
Vancouver hasn’t yet run out of fools with money, or should I say who can borrow money. It appears that we more of them than anywhere else. That’s what’s “different here”.
But there isn’t an unlimited supply of them. When they run out, that’s when it happens.
March 15th, 2008 at 10:57 pm
I’ve just started following these blogs, and I’m finding useful information and coherent arguments are losing the turf war to name calling and ego-driven bull/bear baiting. I’m going to think a lot less of your opinion about real estate if you can’t get it across without calling someone a ‘retard’. I wonder if you’d be as rude in person?
I have a question – for the bears who are convinced the crash is coming – why hasn’t it happened yet? I’ve seen lot’s of agruments, links to articles, and colourful graphs in support of out why it should crash, but never (unless I’ve missed it) has anyone looked into why their theories have yet to play out(other than the odd reference to grow-ops and condo owners in vancouver being generally stupid).
If you’ve been wrong for this long, shouldn’t that be the garner some attention?
March 15th, 2008 at 8:47 pm
It’s interesting reading through some of the US bubble blogs – everything sounds very similar, I just can’t seem to put my finger on it…
“Remember when Realtors® used to tell us to “Buy Now” because South Florida was running out of land?”
“The days of $600 per square foot are long gone. It’s amazing that there was ever a day when some folks paid $1,000 a square foot for an apartment like this.”
taken from http://www.soflahousing.com
March 15th, 2008 at 7:39 pm
They were right about the RE bubble because they weren’t being paid by the RE industry. I never claimed that they were right about everything.
Come on NDP – show some guts!!
The problem is that a large majority of households, and an even larger majority of voters, are already homeowners, and have bought into the “my house is going to make me rich” mantra. Also a lot of people are employed by the RE industry. As long as most voters support higher house prices, no political party is going to do or say anything towards the goal of making them more reasonable.
“Supporting affordable housing”, for all parties including the NDP, means demand subsidies, which actually make housing more expensive. The NDP is more explicit about it, but they all support CMHC’s backstopping of the mortgage market which is also a subsidy, for example.
No political party spoke out about the 1981 bubble either.