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Friday Free for All!

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139 Comments

At the end of each week we do an open-topic Friday free-for-all post here at VancouverCondo.info – this is our chance to recap some recent stories and share links and anecdotes on the local market and global economy. Here are a few links to start off the discussion:

– Eden Sophia superintendent comments on project losses
– Zillow Canada? David G says maybe eventually, but not this year
– You’re getting a raise! Wages predicted to grow in BC
– Fewer sales, more listings means more options for buyers
– Canada’s big banks can reclaim the risky loans market
– US foreclosures hurting neighbors refinancing efforts
– CNN video: Arson as a way out of housing debt
– The Feds worst nightmare

So what are you seeing out there? Post your news, links and anecdotes here!

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0nE4DaMoNeY

LMAO, DAMAGED DAN: $800K IN PROFIT SAY YOU DA FOOL!

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evergreen

Betamax, Freako, appreciate your comments. That was a nifty example on evacuation. Discretion is always the better part of valour especially in such an expensive market and in such tricky and difficult times.

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freako

Especially, with financial and property purchases or investments, roughly getting the timing correct within a reasonable time period (say, +/- one year or so) allows for less hasty exits or entrances. Yes, obviously good timing is better than poor timing. But we have to settle for second best, which is knowing whether a particular market is overpriced or underpriced. That is all you need to take action. If it was calculated that an avalanche was likely to crumble on top of a village. They have a projected date, but due to the chaotic nature of many factors, it has a large band of uncertainty. This band of uncertainty could be improved through expensive research, but why bother? The resulting action is the same no matter what: evacuation. It is more important to know IF it will turn into an avanlanche.… Read more »

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betamax

I think most of us bears have been wrong about the duration of the bubble, but we relied on common sense and logic in our analysis — and neither of those have much to do with the bubble psychology.

When the Canadian bubble inevitably busts, the trolls will show up here for a while and claim that the bears were only right after being wrong for much longer. But after a while and as the carnage continues, the trolls will disappear and never be heard from again.

Some will change their names and revisit as ardent converts when the collapse becomes commonplace, because they're herd thinkers at heart. The earth is irrefutably flat, until everyone else decides it's round after all.

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evergreen

Just because they’ve been wrong this long doesn’t mean they will never be right. Knowing something is going to happen is a lot easier than knowing precisely WHEN something is going to happen. True. But you don’t want to be too far out with the estimates. For example, if you can guess the IQ scores or Math exam marks of students A, B, C (after teaching them for a semester) within a narrow range (say, less than +/- one standard deviation), then it means that you’ve understood better their underlying abilities compared to someone who’s guessed outside this range (greater than +/- one standard deviation). Especially, with financial and property purchases or investments, roughly getting the timing correct within a reasonable time period (say, +/- one year or so) allows for less hasty exits or entrances. Btw, this post is… Read more »

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freako

With BS gone, is Lehman next? I think the knows how bad it is, and are trying to keep the banking system from collapsing, all without causing a panic. But Vancouver RE just keeps on appreciating.

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freako

Vancouver's prosperity is definitely affected by China's growth. The Shanghai stock market is now down 38% peak to trough. A few people must be hurting now. These are not exactly experienced or sophisticated investors. I wonder if panic selling will set in at some point.

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Anonymous

De we have another word for something selling for 1% of what is was supposed to be worth a couple of weeks ago?

Maybe not a word but the phrase "too big to fail, too big to bail" might be more like it. While the Fed is bailing them out, through JPM, it might not work. This was a panic move by the Fed to prevent widespread chaos in the global credit markets, eventually even they'll run out of fingers to plug the holes in the dam.

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Michael Randallbard

######__SHELL OVERSTATED RESERVES AGAIN!!!
http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msg…

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Digi

Wow! JP Morgan buying Bear Sterns is huge!

“This is going to go down in very historic terms,” said Peter Dunay, chief investment strategist for New York-based Meridian Equity Partners. “This is about credit being overextended, and how bad it is for major financial institutions and for individuals. This is why we’re probably heading into a recession.”

A collapse of Bear Stearns could have created a further crisis of confidence in world financial markets amid a deepening credit crunch. JPMorgan’s acquisition of Bear Stearns represents roughly 1 percent of what the investment bank was worth just 16 days ago.

Yeah, just don't call it a collapse and we'll all be fine. De we have another word for something selling for 1% of what is was supposed to be worth a couple of weeks ago?

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Digi

If you’ve been wrong for this long, shouldn’t that be the garner some attention? First off let me say I agree with your lead-in. It doesn't matter what side of the debate you're on, if you're relying on insults you're only making your point weaker. But let me come back to the 'wrong this long' point. Anyone who can pinpoint the collapse of speculative market would be extremely rich – they would know to buy in even though fundamentals don't support their investment, because they would know the exact right time to exit the market. Know anyone who has that ability? Unfortunately the longer that forecasts of a market correction are wrong while fundamentals move farther and farther apart doesn't mean that a correction is less likely to happen – it means that when it does happen it's likely to… Read more »

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Anonymous

this can happen here!

http://tinyurl.com/2vkqjd

notice hoe fast this seized up…….

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Michael Randallbard

GOLD IS UP TO 1,020 AND SILVER 21.00

GOLD IS GOING TO 1,650.00 AND SILVER TO 50.00 BY XMAS

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bitter renter

Holy crap! Bear stearns just got bought by JP morgan for 2bucks a share!! They basically went bankrupt overnight! Interest rates have gotta be going to Japan levels. Can't wait to see BMO and CIBC share prices reaction tomorrow!

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moldcity

..sorry, wrong sucky winter month, you know what I mean.

November, February, hard to tell them apart around here. (clearly I can't).

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freako

I’ve seen lot’s of agruments, links to articles, and colourful graphs in support of out why it should crash, but never (unless I’ve missed it) has anyone looked into why their theories have yet to play out(other than the odd reference to grow-ops and condo owners in vancouver being generally stupid). I don't know what you are looking after, but what I know for sure is that there is a runaway train. I also know that it won't end well. I thought the train would have crashed by now, but it hasn't. We could analyze why until the cows come home, but why bother? All we know need to predict the end game is that it is a runaway train. If you’ve been wrong for this long, shouldn’t that be the garner some attention? What kind of attention, and why?… Read more »

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evergreen

This is a subscription based Business daily but allows free online reading 12 hours daily from 3AM to 3PM (Pacific Western Time):

HK property

The report refers to top-tier HK houses going for HK$300m (about C$35m).

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-A-

For those who are locked out of the "spin blog":

For the week ending March 15 there were 1,799 new listings (up) and 764 sales (down), for a sell/list of 42.47% (down).

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-A-

Price drops shouldn't be too far away,however,the RE pumpers will call it:

"Improved affordability".

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read on

Comment by moldcity

2008-03-16 11:37:45

I’m planning on subletting out my rental just to get out of town for November (I really hate November in this town anyways). I’m not going to get greedy, just cover my bills – I wonder how many others have the same plan as me and how ‘owners’ are going to compete with that?

***

Err, November?

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franko

"If you've been wrong for this long, should'nt that be the garner of some attention?"

Now let me get this straight.

Although the fundamentals for our market continue to deteriorate at an alarming rate, we should be safe now and prices will continue their climb to unimmaginable heights because it defied all rational logic for the past 3 years.

Sorry, I'm quite aware that any response to an author of such nonsense may be entirely futile….just could'nt help myself.

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moldcity

Olympics being only months away at that point might create another delay as people try and “cash in” on the “2 week windfall” of renting their units I agree, barring some catastrophe I don't see prices crashing hard until after the olympics – thats when the bill comes due and people start seeing things in the cold wet light of day. Some will be able to get terrific prices for rentals during the games, but just like Salt Lake City many won't and will have to settle for a lot less or have their units empty. I'm planning on subletting out my rental just to get out of town for November (I really hate November in this town anyways). I'm not going to get greedy, just cover my bills – I wonder how many others have the same plan as… Read more »

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Vansanity

"I have a question – for the bears who are convinced the crash is coming – why hasn’t it happened yet?" A few reasons, as far as I can tell. Rates are still low, new products(40 years, zero down) leading to more people in the market (including more speculators), local economic boom (construction/olympics). I believe what we've seen locally is simply unsustainable. Our local economy will look much different once many of the current projects are complete (especially with a US recession). Inflation is coming, there's no doubt about it (if you disagree, go fill your gas tank and get back to me), and with it we will see higher interest rates over time (still a few rate cuts left this year to try to help out the east). Also saturation, as with any market, when the supply exceeds demand… Read more »

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Jadeeast

"If you’ve been wrong for this long, shouldn’t that be the garner some attention?"

I think it may be pretty simple. The narrative elements of a positive local markets have been much stronger than the negative elements. Most participant in real-estate are emotionally invested average people who react much more to the story than to the fundamentals.

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