Friday Free for All!
It’s Friday and that means open-topic time at VancouverCondo.info – here’s a few stories I’ve noticed this week:
- Local RE blogs in Vancouver Magazine
- Credit still easy to get in BC
- Vancouver most expensive for business
- Local business optimism high but dropping
- Little relief in sight for condo buyers
- Craigslist rental price drops
- BC retail sales rank last in Canada
- Rising Loonie hurting our competitive edge
- Foreclosure bus moves across the USA
- The 25% dissolution
What are you seeing out there? Post your news, links and anecdotes here and have a great weekend!
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April 1st, 2008 at 9:33 am
HAHAHAHAHAHA!
Blueskies, that's the funniest thing. The Comfort Zone (the club that guys was in) is infamous. It's where you go after you've been tripping your brains out all night somewhere else. It's open all day Sunday. IF that guy was in that club, he'd been snorting coke all night long and was deeply sketched out.
March 31st, 2008 at 6:54 pm
"I did a search on MUST SELL and the first three…. count ‘em THREE postings were from Jeff, who I believe often posts on various RE blogs" Don'tunderestimate Jeffor for that matter anybody who is advertising "must sell" If I had an $800K place and wanted the last of the fools to bite I would list it for $950 K and act desperate and then when I was loballed at 825 K I would accept with gratitude knowing I had made an extra 25 grand over what it was actually worth. Buyers check out the sellers credit rating, should be very LOW if they "Must sell". If (the sellers credit rating) is highly rated walk away with "nice try"!
March 31st, 2008 at 4:23 pm
you were asking?
http://tinyurl.com/2e54x6
i'm willing to bet this guy has Vancouver RE in his portfolio.
probably buying it nose over mirror
March 31st, 2008 at 3:54 pm
The MUST SELL is supposed to be a link, but it's not apparent enough. Check out this link:
http://tinyurl.com/yvgqz3
How many will be sold by the end of the day?
March 31st, 2008 at 2:53 pm
Weird!
I did a search on MUST SELL and the first three…. count 'em THREE postings were from Jeff, who I believe often posts on various RE blogs….
March 31st, 2008 at 2:51 pm
Thanks, Pope. Didn't know about the SPAM filter.
As I have mentioned before, demographia botches the Vancouver numbers, the ratio is more like 13 x median income.
13x income would be for the REBGV's benchmark detached number. Demographia is the only place where I have found an apples to apples comparison for Vancouver and US cities. REBGV and RBC use benchmark and average, but the NAR in the US uses median. Benchmark prices are good to see how a given property appreciates over time, but for affordability, I like to use median.
Demographia (Median SFH) – $503k – 8.4x income
RBC (Average bungalow) – $604k – 10.2x
REBGV (Benchmark detached) – $761k – 12.8x
Is there anywhere else that keeps median prices for Vancouver?
March 31st, 2008 at 2:37 pm
Asun, it's the end of the month and bills are due, maybe some speculators are losing their fascinations with 'negative cashflow'.
March 31st, 2008 at 2:00 pm
Check out those <A>MUST SELL on craigslist. Is today a deadline for something?
March 31st, 2008 at 1:48 pm
"demographia" may also refer to Portland and Seattle numbers. crabman is comparing apples to apples.
March 31st, 2008 at 1:09 pm
Vancouver – $503,400 – 8.4x median income
As I have mentioned before, demographia botches the Vancouver numbers, the ratio is more like 13 x median income.
March 31st, 2008 at 12:27 pm
Sorry Crabman, your posts kept getting held up in the spam filter, I think its an issue with comments that have more than a couple of links in them. We're getting barraged with spam so its a good thing the filter is there even if it results in a delay until I can do the manual approval. If you run into the same issue in the future a work-around is to post fewer external links, or break them up into multiple comments.
March 31st, 2008 at 12:02 pm
3rd (and final) attempt at this post… sorry if there are duplicates.
Crabman sold his unit for 750k in 2006 in dec 2007 that was listed for 1499k now Crabman has decided to pack his suit case to say good bye….if anybody cheat with next buyer hahahaha becomes Crabman”-a lesson to learn.
Can't believe I'm responding to the troll….
Krrish, you have the right building, but wrong unit. I had one of the 2 bedrooms, not this one. Which now is lowered to 1,399k and at $816/ft (compared to low $600's/ft in other units in this building) will not sell.
Let's compare median house prices to comparable US cities: link
Vancouver – $503,400 – 8.4x median income
Seattle – $377,500 – 5.7x
Portland – $290, 500 – 5.0x
Also, the prediction for Seattle and Portland are -16% and -15% for prices from now until the bottom. This would result in Seattle and Portland being about 1/2 the income multiple of Vancouver.
Seattle – $317,100 – 4.8x
Portland – $247,000 – 4.2x
Vancouver was severely overpriced in fall 2006, it's insanely overpriced now, and every extra dollar of future appreciation will make it that much more overpriced. I don't expect a correction, I expect a big crash (~35-40%). If not, I will happily take the proceeds from my 2 bedroom Vancouver shoe-box and buy a nice house in the West Hills of Portland.
March 31st, 2008 at 11:59 am
Site having problems today, or just me?
Here's a graph of Shanghai stock market. Ouch! This is what Van RE price chart will look like in 3-5 years:
March 31st, 2008 at 10:41 am
There's a lot of people in Victoria who are living in a goldfish bowl, and have no clue of reality, esp. when it comes to RE. Had someone ask me if the roads up north were paved. That kind of sums it up.
March 31st, 2008 at 8:26 am
pricedoutfornow,
you are wrong. Everyone wants to live in Victoria not Kelowna. Victoria baby!
March 31st, 2008 at 7:31 am
Did anyone happen to listen to Coast2Coast last night? Mish Shedlock was on and he gave Vancouver 'honorable' mention. He was talking about crashing RE markets.
He also talked about the new banking regulations in the US that will have the Fed over-seeing 'market stabilization'. He was saying that since the Fed is responsible for creating the mess in the first place, this is like; he called it, 'Putting the Fed in charge of the hen-house'. He said this news should scare the bejeebus out of anyone.
Interesting interview. Sadly, he was on for just the first hour, he was just getting rolling.
March 31st, 2008 at 5:46 am
franko,
As near as I can tell from the squiggly lines on charts, the FV was a couple of months ahead of Vancouver in '81.
March 30th, 2008 at 9:01 pm
Damn,Oye one way exit means people who are sitting out after sold will never get back on low,I know some of those who sold their properties three year,two year,one year back has re enter into the market by paying 150k-500k more to save their mustache's.
Crabman sold his unit for 750k in 2006 in dec 2007 that was listed for 1499k now Crabman has decided to pack his suit case to say good bye.
"You just said it yourself"
“Vancouver Real Estate,There is just one way EXIT.”-up,up,and up,if anybody cheat with next buyer hahahaha becomes Crabman"-a lesson to learn.
Flippers are UP,Investors are UP,Owners are UP,and Buyers are UP because they hate to pay next bounce so they are trying to get into it on right time but I can see some "wisemens are blowing their whistles" but oh no "horseman is not showing "UP"- I will take a leave because Darling in se#y bikini and Mr.Dick is…..?
will be back right after the break.
March 30th, 2008 at 5:13 pm
Mish has an exposee on Canaccord Capital and Coastal Credit Savings Union refusing to underwrite ABCP gone bad. Wouldn't it be fun to see an investment bank run in Canada?
March 30th, 2008 at 4:35 pm
The heating up starts in the city and moves out to the valley and in the exact opposite as it cools. So that is where you should look to see the cooling… It's already happening…. This is getting exciting
March 30th, 2008 at 4:17 pm
Does anyone know if there is a blog or site that tracks daily sales/listings for the Fraser Valley?
I'm not all that familiar with the area, but just drove through parts of Abbotsford and Langley, and was astounded by the number of "for sale" signs….actually saw several being pounded into the ground in passing.
I'm surprised that the epidemic is starting before April & May. Is this a normal post-Easter thing?
Also wondering if previous crashes in Vancouver started in the valley.
March 30th, 2008 at 12:21 pm
Krissh, if you're so sure that the market hasn't tanked, why don't you list your assignment at TV Towers?
If you list it now you may be able to sell it for what you paid, but that's much better than lining up with the other 250 flippers who'll be trying to sell in the next few months. The buyers will have two options
1.Sell for a loss or walk away from deposit.
2.Try to rent it and lose $2k per month, like the neighbouring Spectrum buildings (still has vacancies after six months!).
You just said it yourself
"Vancouver Real Estate,There is just one way EXIT."
EXACTLY, for once the idiot got something right!
March 30th, 2008 at 11:41 am
The reason why the housing starts have spike recently is because the developers wants to unload their project. They know the market is crashing and crashing hard. This is evidence by low or no increase in their asking price for their pre-sales. And secondly, their rush to finish their development. If the market turns before they finish, buyers may decide to forfeit their deposit.
Hang on, the market is crashing. The market will be flooded with more units.
March 30th, 2008 at 11:28 am
In B.C. we have a strong local economy and good job growth, coupled with strong market fundamentals and sustainability, which result in no real estate bubble.
Wow, krissh #44 or whatever, your writing style is certainly more fluid than usual. Did you get lazy about ethnicizing it? Maybe it's time to get some professional ethnicizing software.
Now have you not considered that one of Vancouver's hottest industries is real estate itself?
When I was a kid (forty years ago +) I worked for a large and well known jeweller in their Montreal head office. The office manager was a clear-thinking guy who explained to me one day that if all of the company's sales ground to a halt and they closed all of the stores across Canada, that the 100 or so employees in head office could keep going for a long time just keeping track of head office activities. It would of course be a useless and fruitless activity but the natural consequence of a group of people who lack vision, look only inward, lose track of their purpose and overestimate their value.
This is how the Vancouver real estate industry is right now.
March 30th, 2008 at 10:10 am
"But since nothing in Vancouver seems to make any sense based on objective criteria, all people can do is argue about subjective criteria."
Hahaha touché!! It's funny because it's true.
March 30th, 2008 at 9:57 am
Krrish AKA Rob:
“A,
In B.C. we have a strong local economy and good job growth, coupled with strong market fundamentals and sustainability, which result in no real estate bubble”
Rob, how stupid do you think people are?
The Fed printed a lot of money, and created an asset and credit bubble which we *benefited*, now it is unwinding.
No fundamentals, just inflation, smoke and mirrors.
March 30th, 2008 at 9:56 am
If the phrase “everyone wants to live here”, was true, then immigration would be off the scale.
Exactly, betamax. Like I posted a few days ago (somewhere) BC's 10-year growth rate has been 19%. About the same as Washington state's 21%, and about half of Arizona's 40%! If BC is the greatest place on earth, then Arizona must be "twice as best"!
March 30th, 2008 at 9:18 am
Why you all waste your time discussing something so subjective is beyond me.
But since nothing in Vancouver seems to make any sense based on objective criteria, all people can do is argue about subjective criteria.
The city that dares to be known by attitude alone.
March 30th, 2008 at 9:14 am
“The Best Place on Earth” is a slogan not a fact. Why you all waste your time discussing something so subjective is beyond me.
I find ,San Francisco and Vancouver are overrated.
Both are a 6 dressed like a 9.
March 30th, 2008 at 8:17 am
"The Best Place on Earth" is a slogan not a fact. Why you all waste your time discussing something so subjective is beyond me. It's not an argument you will ever win or lose because it's an opinion.
FYI – A local San Francisco news team had the slogan: "The best place for news in the Best Place on Earth". Here's a clip, fast forward to the 3 min. mark of it and you'll hear the locals tell you why it's the best place on earth (pretty funny actually):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t4p3mXpeuSc
March 29th, 2008 at 10:20 pm
The Olympics doesn’t make Vancouver the best place on earth, but one bad weather day doesn’t make Austin better.
Yeah, if it were only one bad day i may agree. I just drove along SE Marine to New West, stopped by Lougheed Mall, then back to South Granville. As i drove along the Champs de Kingsway in the hail, with its mouldly black 'n yellow signed store fronts, i realised that i was certainly living in the best place on earth. It just doesn't get any better.
March 29th, 2008 at 10:16 pm
A,
In B.C. we have a strong local economy and good job growth, coupled with strong market fundamentals and sustainability, which result in no real estate bubble.
So your question is not valid,I am just wondering how you guys sit infront of your partners? with what face?
And People who sitting out after sold uff I have seen few of them crying on their mistakes there are more to follow them.
Vancouver Real Estate,There is just one way EXIT.
March 29th, 2008 at 10:05 pm
The number of people who have the means and motivation to retire outside of Canada is miniscule. Don't pretend that you are in any way representative of the average retiree. The plain fact is that most Canadian boomers have seriously underbudgeted for retirement.
The overriding factors for almost all retirees are cost and proximity to family and friends.
March 29th, 2008 at 9:34 pm
I will add that the whole area east of Greater Toronto right up to the Ottawa River is also touting itself as a retirement destination. It’s cheap and it’s not far from Toronto and Ottawa.
Well, that sounds attractive. We were planning on Mexico or Costa Rica for retirement, but if there's a cheap place in Canada…sign us up.
We're both into gardening and I'm sure the growing season would be the same in each case, wouldn't it?
March 29th, 2008 at 8:36 pm
I don’t know how they’re going to squeeze all those people into PEI
Since so few people live in PEI to start with, they don't have to attract a lot of retirees to get a good % growth from them. Only 1/20 of BC population. PEI is cheap, has low crime, no congestion too.
On the other hand, it makes about as much sense to expect an expensive, populous province like BC to gain a significant economic benefit from retirees as it does for California. Or look at Florida – it now has become a net source (not destination) for retirees since it has become expensive. Costs matter for retirees. Bigtime. There aren't enough rich ones.
I will add that the whole area east of Greater Toronto right up to the Ottawa River is also touting itself as a retirement destination. It's cheap and it's not far from Toronto and Ottawa.